President of the Confederation of Nepalese Industries (CNI) Rajesh Kumar Agrawal declared last week that the economy was in a deep recession. But others cite record high remittances and foreign exchange reserves to say there is no cause for alarm.
Whom to believe? Both sides are right. The external sector of the economy is sound, but jobs are down and so is domestic demand and economic activities are. There is no domestic and foreign investment.
“Looking at our macroeconomic indicators, we most certainly aren’t heading towards a recession,” says Ishwori Prasad Bhandari of the National Statistics Office. “We are, however, experiencing a slow growth rate."
Unlike what many had predicted last year, Nepal has not gone down like Sri Lanka. Foreign reserves have climbed to $11.85 billion, enough to cover imports for more than 10 months. Nepalis sent home Rs116.2 billion in just the last month, a record and 26% up from the same month in 2022. And that is just through official channels.
After nearly 34 months, the current account deficit is on firmer ground. And the Asian Development Bank this week projected that the economic growth rate this year will bounce back to 4.3% from 1.9% % last year.
Read also: State of the state, Kunda Dixit
The inflation rate also dropped to 7.52% in July, down from 8.26% at the same time last year mainly because of lower fuel prices and lower inflation in India.
There are no figures for unemployment, but since about 1 million Nepalis left for overseas jobs and work-study in 2022-23, the picture is not rosy.
On the import side, demand declined first because of the pandemic and later government-imposed ban on luxury goods. Imports three years ago were down to Rs1.54 trillion only for it to bounce back a year later by nearly 25% once the restrictions were removed.
The decline in demand can also be credited to a slowdown in construction and infrastructure projects. Much of the reconstruction after the 2015 earthquake is complete, and so is new infrastructure for new local and provincial governments. This has led to a decline in demand for cement and other building materials.
The growth rate of bank loans has shrunk to 4.6% which many saw as a reluctance of industries to invest. But higher interest rates in the past have not necessarily resulted in economic growth, production, or jobs.
Read also: State-sponsored economic crisis, Ramesh Kumar
Due to the rapid growth of credit, the ratio of credit to the private sector has exceeded 91% of Nepal’s GDP, which is the highest in South Asia. Some experts credit this for the natural slump.