President of the Confederation of Nepalese Industries (CNI) Rajesh Kumar Agrawal declared last week that the economy was in a deep recession. But others cite record high remittances and foreign exchange reserves to say there is no cause for alarm. &nbsp;
Whom to believe? Both sides are right. The external sector of the economy is sound, but jobs are down and so is domestic demand and economic activities are. There is no domestic and foreign investment.
“Looking at our macroeconomic indicators, we most certainly aren’t heading towards a recession,” says Ishwori Prasad Bhandari of the National Statistics Office. “We are, however, experiencing a slow growth rate."
Unlike what many had predicted last year, Nepal has not gone down like Sri Lanka. Foreign reserves have climbed to $11.85 billion, enough to cover imports for more than 10 months. Nepalis sent home Rs116.2 billion in just the last month, a record and 26% up from the same month in 2022. And that is just through official channels.&nbsp;
After nearly 34 months, the current account deficit is on firmer ground. And the Asian Development Bank this week projected that the economic growth rate this year will bounce back to 4.3% from 1.9% % last year.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/state-of-the-state">State of the state</a>, Kunda Dixit
The inflation rate also dropped to 7.52% in July, down from 8.26% at the same time last year mainly because of lower fuel prices and lower inflation in India.&nbsp;
There are no figures for unemployment, but since about 1 million Nepalis left for overseas jobs and work-study in 2022-23, the picture is not rosy.
On the import side, demand declined first because of the pandemic and later government-imposed ban on luxury goods. Imports three years ago were down to Rs1.54 trillion only for it to bounce back a year later by nearly 25% once the restrictions were removed.
The decline in demand can also be credited to a slowdown in construction and infrastructure projects. Much of the reconstruction after the 2015 earthquake is complete, and so is new infrastructure for new local and provincial governments. This has led to a decline in demand for cement and other building materials.
The growth rate of bank loans has shrunk to 4.6% which many saw as a reluctance of industries to invest. But higher interest rates in the past have not necessarily resulted in economic growth, production, or jobs.
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/state-sponsored-economic-crisis-ikcxxmnp">State-sponsored economic crisis</a>, Ramesh Kumar
Due to the rapid growth of credit, the ratio of credit to the private sector has exceeded 91% of Nepal’s GDP, which is the highest in South Asia. Some experts credit this for the natural slump.
“After seeing an increase of 26% a year, it is only natural for the loan growth rate to decline,” says former banker Parshuram Kunwar Chhetri. “Credit growth can fluctuate when the economy does, it does not always increase at the same pace.”
Loans are starting to see an increase. Last month the figure stood at Rs44.15 billion which is double the amount in the same period last year.
“The economy went into decline, but did not collapse,” concludes Chhetri. “But the Central Bank could lower interest rates, relax the limit of Rs10.2 million imposed on the stock market and increase capital expenditure to boost the morale of the private sector.”
Former Finance Secretary Rameshore Khanal argues that just because some shops have closed down it does not mean that the economy is on the verge of collapse. “A lull in market and consumption have changed leading to some businesses experiencing difficulties. But other businesses have sprung up. This is a natural trend.”&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/till-debt-do-us-part">Till debt do us part</a>, Ramesh Kumar
Indeed, much business has shifted to digital platforms since the Covid pandemic. Just last month, mobile banking accounted for Rs243 billion, up from Rs73 billion two years ago.
“If it was a real recession, people would stop buying home appliances but here during the NADA auto show this year, there was a record high transaction worth Rs20 billion,” says Khanal.
So why are businesses trying to make it look like we are facing the Great Depression?
Experts say businesses are exaggerating the recession narrative to influence policy so they can get away with not paying high interest rates on loans taken earlier.&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/institutionalised-inequality">Institutionalised inequality</a>, Editorial
“This problem arose in the first place due to the flow of cheap loans,” explains Shivraj Adhikari of Tribhuvan University. “And what we have now is the business community trying to create a policy trap by demanding concessions on their unpaid loans.”
But this is not to say that all is hunky dory. Much of the remittances are spent on unproductive sectors when they should have gone into job creation, renewable businesses, and manufacturing. Nepal also needs to increase its capital expenditure.
Says Nepal Rastra Bank’s Prakash Kumar Shrestha: “There are structural problems from the past and we will need major reforms to speed up the economy. Business as usual and only relying on the real estate and stock market for growth will not be enough.”
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/cost-of-living-in-a-big-city">Cost of living in a big city</a>, Ramesh Kumar

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Business as unusual

Subha Shrestha got married at 18 and became a mother at 21. A few years later, she was a struggling single mother trying to earn enough to raise her young son. She had become the sole breadwinner of her family, and had to do all the unpaid household work as well. “If you ask me, it is harder to be a homemaker than working outside the home,” says Shrestha.  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230310040328_6e7d3b923d4381b043202d1505e415eb7a9597cd6377d9c36f37942b44bbc2c5.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20230310040328_6e7d3b923d4381b043202d1505e415eb7a9597cd6377d9c36f37942b44bbc2c5" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="A homemaker’s worth"></figure>  Ask any Nepali: being a doctor or engineer is the most desired and respected profession in the country. A job in the military is regarded as being the toughest, and bank CEOs make the most money. But what about homemakers? Most Nepalis do not even think of them in monetary terms. But maybe we should start putting a price tag on all the work ‘jobless’ women do at home. According to salaryexplorer.com, an army officer in Nepal makes Rs66,500 a month on average. Salaries range from Rs30,600 to Rs106,000. And loksewajob.com pegs healthcare worker salaries at anywhere between Rs24,602 to Rs72,082. A homemaker (or ‘housewife’ as we used to call them) makes no money at all. Women toiling away at home are not just underpaid, they are not paid at all. Nepali Times tallied what an average Nepali middle-class full-time homemaker in Kathmandu would be earning if she were to be paid for all the work she does around the house. The total was Rs115,000 a month whereas a mid-level government official would have a monthly salary of only Rs45,000.  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2023031005034_a234c5d9ce6e90661c1f470797d757f56fd9a6bb24d5a7e1071469d53650ea2f.png" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2023031005034_a234c5d9ce6e90661c1f470797d757f56fd9a6bb24d5a7e1071469d53650ea2f" data-rendition-name="original" width="471" height="888" loading="lazy" alt="Home work NT"></figure>  And this does not even include extra errands during occasional family gatherings, feasts and festivals where women end up doing all the work. Usually, the men sit around, drink, chitter-chatter and gossip about politics. Moreover, we cannot even put a monetary value to the care a homemaker provides her family that no salaried help ever would, or could. For all this work, a homemaker does not expect anything in return, except love and acceptance. Yet, the work of millions of Nepali women is not recognised, they are rarely anyone’s inspiration, and they are often overlooked by other career women.  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230310040328_31894703b869dde0e0d09784ae31051625936a37efb7b3c8a9cbf45165e3a736.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20230310040328_31894703b869dde0e0d09784ae31051625936a37efb7b3c8a9cbf45165e3a736" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Photos: SUMAN NEPALI"></figure>  Most women with regular jobs have the added burden of balancing home and work. But it is the effort of a homemaker that makes it possible for male members of households to take up a profession in the first place. Oftentimes, homemakers have to eventually sacrifice their careers because they are needed at home. Every career-oriented woman has a mother or a sister at home to thank for her success. Our society also ignores how it is the women who have to make all the adjustments after getting married: she has to leave her home and parents for an unknown household.  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230310040328_723a7ba4ba0e96c7a77d5a2865ed1546e693a132e5c43c8355c94760bc4e3e5c.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20230310040328_723a7ba4ba0e96c7a77d5a2865ed1546e693a132e5c43c8355c94760bc4e3e5c" data-rendition-name="original" width="2677" height="3966" loading="lazy" alt="Photos: SUMAN NEPALI"><figcaption>Photo courtesy: SUBHA SHRESTHA</figcaption></figure>  Homemakers work 24/7, they cannot complain, they get no breaks. They do not get annual leave. Public holidays are like any other day, and festival time means more work. There is no annual bonus, no pension. They do not have a sick leave. Perhaps the most glaring inequality within most Nepali households is how mothers and grandmothers prepare all meals but are the last to eat, usually cold leftovers, and then have to do the dishes. “I was free at my parent’s home, but having been married into a conservative family, it was really difficult for me to adapt,” recalls Shrestha, adding that she had to wake up at 3AM to finish all of her morning chores before heading out at 6AM to the store her husband’s family owned.  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230310040328_9b8ee916db1b5bba35ffc966a684f9c4588781d4a76d78b32c65a53cc0d931c5.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20230310040328_9b8ee916db1b5bba35ffc966a684f9c4588781d4a76d78b32c65a53cc0d931c5" data-rendition-name="original" width="1975" height="2889" loading="lazy" alt="Photos: SUMAN NEPALI"><figcaption>Photo courtesy: SUBHA SHRESTHA</figcaption></figure>  Shrestha was barely an adult herself at 18, and was caring for her sickly son with no financial support. Her son had to be taken to the hospital frequently, sometimes twice a day. Her sisters who are also homemakers looked out for her and helped her set up a stationery store later. Says her son Evan, who is now 21 years old: “All the credit for how I have grown up to be a good person goes entirely to my Mom.” Shrestha herself is thankful for the life she has now with her son despite a lifetime of hardships.

A homemaker’s worth

Nabil Bank has inaugurated its Mid-Corporate and Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) Hub in the United World Trade Center, Tripureshwor, to cater to the financial needs of business enterprises and look after direct and indirect micro financing activities in its branches.At the event, Nabil Bank and UKaid Sakchyam committed to work jointly on market assessment, product development, process and operational set up, and training and development in rural areas to promote access to finance to the Micro and SME sector.“Currently we have a Mid-Corporate and SME loan book of over Rs. 25 billion and we want to exponentially increase it in the days ahead. Mid-Corporates and Small &amp; Medium Enterprises are the backbone of our economy, and Nabil Bank wants to play an active role in the growth of this sector. Together with Sakchyam, we are confident of introducing new products and enhanced processes that will enable us to surge ahead”, said Officiating CEO of Nabil Bank Anil Shah in the inauguration.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107101152/6368d6009c7e80680e03145cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3822" height="2514"/>The Bank has also launched a new product named ‘NabilSME Fast Track Loan’ with features such as 11.50% p.a. interest rate for up to a year, and approval for loan of Rs500,000 to Rs30,000,000 within 5 days. The product aims to meet all types of financing requirements of growing midsized businesses, and to assist emerging midsized trading, manufacturing and service businesses with a very competitive interest rate.

Nabil opens MCOR and SME Hub

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Nabil opens MCOR and SME Hub