<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141112/636ba76b9c7e80680e073781jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>Photo: AJAYA UPADHAYAYA</figcaption></figure>As serious as the rapid spread in Nepal of the novel coronavirus looks, even more frightening is what the lockdown meant to prevent it will do to the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-economy-already-weak-takes-direct-hit/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-economy-already-weak-takes-direct-hit/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1598352647267000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHMB3uRxLtXPB1J9V0PQdJF-f6E6w">country’s economy</a>. The health impact of the virus may pale in comparison to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-plans-to-revive-economy-hit-by-covid-19/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-plans-to-revive-economy-hit-by-covid-19/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1598352647267000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHZ73Q3ug57-h3IKB7NUBfuqD8LyQ">long-term damage</a> to the country from a prolonged lockdown that enters its sixth month today.It is difficult to make predictions on how Nepal’s economy will fare till the end of the year because that will depend on how the virus behaves. But all indications are of that SARS-CoV-2 is here to stay, and that it will resurface with added virulence in winter.On 21 July when Finance Minister Yubaraj Khatiwada triumphantly announced that the pandemic in Nepal had peaked, and the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-ends-covid-19-lockdown/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-ends-covid-19-lockdown/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1598352647268000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEfmOWpPyfs0PHIzdD4yHmecUC6hg">lockdown had been lifted</a>, traders, businesses and industries were cautiously optimistic. But since then there has been a surge, with cases and fatalities more than doubling in the past three weeks.Aside from essential food and other items, business transactions are down by more than half since 24 March when the restrictions were first announced. Even when the lockdown was eased last month, the people’s purchasing capacity had gone down and businesses did not really pick up.The Rastra Bank estimates that it will take at least nine months after the lockdown is fully lifted for the economy to come back to previous levels. This means Nepal is not going to see a recovery this fiscal year. The central bank says 22.5% of those employed in the country have lost their jobs in the past five months of lockdown.The central bank expects Nepal’s economic growth rate to plunge from 6.9% last year to less than 1% this year. But the World Bank is even more pessimistic, it says the growth rate may even go into negative 2.8% if the crisis continues.“Everything is at a complete standstill, there are no transactions taking place except people buying food from day to day,” says Shekhar Golchha of the Federation of Nepalese Chambers of Commerce and Industries (FNCCI). “The question is how long before businesses run out of cash to pay salaries, and families run out of savings.”Factories along the Itahari-Biratnagar and Simara-Birganj corridors have been hardest hit not just by the plunge in demand but because workers who had returned from India after 21 July started falling sick.One of those hit was Jagadamba Steels, whose Sahil Agrawal says: “The sale of steel rods had picked up somewhat after the lockdown was lifted, but after workers tested positive, the local administration closed the factories. Now, with the lockdown everything is closed.”Even worse hit is the tourism and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/domestic-flights-need-to-resume-so-the-economy-can-take-off/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/domestic-flights-need-to-resume-so-the-economy-can-take-off/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1598352647268000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHQz5xiYmnvrrNu2XXeOqvI6eqyXQ">aviation sector</a> where revenue is zero for the past five months. Banks had given loans worth Rs1.1 trillion for hotels and restaurants, and had lent Rs40 billion to the transport sector. They are not in a position to replay even the interest, let alone the capital.Imports are down 20%, from Rs1.7 trillion in the first half of last year compared to only Rs85 billion in the same period this year. That should be good news, but it means the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-unveils-covid-19-budget/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-unveils-covid-19-budget/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1598352647268000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEHmYyroAVpq5ZVmt1E9zdYH6duUQ">government’s tax revenue</a> has gone down by more than half.The middle class has been hit hardest with incomes falling. Of the 923,000 registered businesses in Nepal, nearly all are small and medium enterprises employing less than ten people. As a result, house and property transactions have gone down by half last month compared to the same period in 2019.“Except for mobile phones, motorcycles, fast moving consumer goods, nothing else is moving,” says Golchha. “Even when they do shop consumers are buying cheaper items, which is an indicator of a drastic fall in income.”Even the sale of alcohol products are down by up to 80%. Bhat Bhateni Supermarket’s Panu Poudel says turnover in the nationwide chain had picked up after 21 July, but was still down by a third, but now it is back to zero again.But the real barometer of just how bad the crisis is can be felt in the banking sector where on the one hand liquidity is overflowing because of reduction in loan disbursement, but collection has also shrunk because of defaults. The print editions of the Nepali language press in the past month are full of bank notices for auctions of collateral property. However, even if the property is up for auction, they may be no buyers.In the whole of July-August the banks collected Rs34 trillion in loan repayments, but they lent only Rs28 billion. “The reason is that it is difficult enough just to survive for businesses, and they are in no position to take a loan to invest,” says businessman Pashupati Murarka.The government had told borrowers they had a grace period till December to repay bank loans without being put on the defaulters’ black list, but it is looking like even that is being optimistic.One ray of hope for businesses was that public spending would increase in the run up to Dasain, which this year falls at the end of October. But most businessmen have given up on a Dasain-Tihar revival this year. Car sales used to go up at this time, but the Nepal Automobile Dealers’ Association has cancelled its annual auto show, and its chair Krishna Dulal says: “This year we are just trying to get by, there is no hope for sales.”With revenue down, the government will be forced to borrow. But the state borrowing already makes up 37% equivalent of the GDP, and it could go up to 51% by the end of this fiscal year. Economist Govinda Bahadur Thapa says the government may run out of money if the current trend continues. He says: “We have brought the economy to a standstill to save lives, but we need to save the economy as well. It is a very difficult balance.”Former finance secretary Rameshore Khanal is not as pessimistic. Although he does not discount the seriousness of the crisis, he thinks what could save Nepal is that it is still largely a subsistence economy and families have coping mechanisms to get by in times of extreme hardships. For example, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/cash-flow-crisis-for-migrants-and-families/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/cash-flow-crisis-for-migrants-and-families/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1598352647268000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEYYoLn_p_-ES3VLLcSEZMh_J0QPQ">remittances from Nepalis working overseas</a> have not gone down despite predictions it would drop drastically.He says the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/ways-nepal-can-rebound-from-covid-19/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/ways-nepal-can-rebound-from-covid-19/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1598352647268000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH425REk3c_X8wnX5A6WbreQBdGKw">crisis also presents opportunities</a> for the government. “We can have a pro-active policy to channel unemployed Nepalis to the jobs 1.5 million Indian workers used to do before they went home, and this would be the time to flood the market with liquidity in order to inject cash and raise purchasing power.”Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/ways-nepal-can-rebound-from-covid-19/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/ways-nepal-can-rebound-from-covid-19/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1598352647268000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH425REk3c_X8wnX5A6WbreQBdGKw">Ways Nepal can rebound from Covid-19</a>, Bikash Pandey

original

674x448

610x380

500x500

400x266

400x240

400x203

301x200

1250x600

1084x550

Economic cost of 5 months of Nepal lockdown

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221129121152/6385f2899c7e80680e0cc94djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="695" height="364"/><figcaption>Patan Drbar Square. Photo: TEMPLE TIGER</figcaption></figure>The ancient brick walls of the Patan Darbar absorb the dull afternoon light like spilled claret. A black dog slinks behind a doorway and a woman in a pale sari gazes immobile from a high window, but otherwise the square is empty.Temples are closed, worship is suspended, offerings banned, bells muted and lamps left unlit, monitored by the occasional passing <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/clamping-down-on-the-country/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">police patrol</a>  Two long wooden benches flank the magnificent nipple-studded gold doorway, usually packed with lounging locals and tired tourists soaking up the sun and watching the world go by.But now the palace door is slammed tight shut, gleaming dully in the overcast afternoon, and the seats, polished by generations of grateful bottoms, are bare and bereft.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/when-the-air-is-clean/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">When the air is clean</a>, Abhushan Gautam<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/kathmandu-turns-into-flower-city/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Kathmandu turns into flower city</a>, Manish Paudel<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221129121152/6385f28c9c7e80680e0cc94ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="4032" height="3024"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Across the silent Valley, streets deserted, shops shuttered, offices closed, hotels barred and government gates padlocked, the reclining Vishnu at Budhanilkantha lies abandoned and alone. His black stone limbs are strewn with dead flower petals and rotting leaves blown through the concrete fence. Barricaded behind chunky chains wrapped around his metal gates, the normally bustling temple precinct, never without worshippers, pilgrims and prayers, is still and lifeless.A defiant smear of vermillion stains a tree near the entrance. Narayan’s celestial powers protect the Valley swamped by this unnatural quiet, and bolster the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/what-is-novel-about-the-novel-coronavirus/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">nation’s battle against the invisible coronavirus</a> to be vanquished with a strategy of isolation, closures and lockdown, defeated by a drumbeat of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/prevention-while-searching-for-a-cure/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">hand washing, face masks and social distancing</a>.The silence of the airport departure terminal is all pervasive, the car park empty, the doors locked, and inside the dusty check-in desks and rows of untenanted immigration booths stand sentinel to former days. The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/anzacs-homeward-bound-from-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">rare evacuation flights</a> and the occasional cargo plane brings the place alive with masked staff and gloved security personnel. An aircraft overhead causes us to stop and raise our eyes in witness to an unusual event. Every motor engine sounds unnaturally loud in the Valley hush with which we have become habituated.After 50 days of Nepal lockdown, what is utterly extraordinary has come to seem normal, the unimaginable become commonplace. I wake at dawn thinking: ‘Is this for real?’. ‘Unprecedented’, ‘historic’, ‘incredible’ are all overused words, but how else to relate, to express, to process our current situation. We are becoming inured to scenes and situations throughout the world that a scant few weeks ago would have been unthinkable.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/anzacs-homeward-bound-from-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Aussies and Kiwis homeward bound from Nepal</a>, Lisa Choegyal<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/coronavirus-shutdown-gives-nepals-nature-a-respite/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Coronavirus shutdown gives Nepal's nature a respite</a>, Mukesh Pokhrel<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221129121152/6385f2909c7e80680e0cc94fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="4032" height="3024"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Thousands of aircraft are patiently parked along the periphery of unused runways as flights worldwide are grounded by the pandemic, machinery moth-balled and travellers confined to home. The vast skies above South Asia are devoid of air traffic, all borders sealed, domestic flights forbidden, and not even citizens permitted to return home. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-airlines-may-merge-to-survive/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The airline industry is suffering</a> its worst ever crisis, and when planes do take off on the other side of this disaster, aviation will never look the same again.Global <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/survive-2020-revive-in-2021-and-thrive-in-2022/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">tourism</a> is realising how its tentacles extend far beyond the obvious frontline of hospitality - airlines, transport, hotels, restaurants, travel agencies, tours and attractions - into less obvious areas of the arts, theatre, design, banking, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/uncertainties-for-nepali-overseas-students-with-covid-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">education</a>  conservation, and of course <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/back-to-the-future-of-farming/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">agriculture</a> and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/work-for-food/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">food production</a>.Businesses that have taken a lifetime to build are crumbling day by day. Touts and beggars are jobless, working horses, donkeys, elephants and camels are having a holiday, wild nature is flourishing in the respite, but the roaming street dogs and stupa monkeys are hungry. The world is at a standstill, the suffering stark.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/back-to-the-future-of-farming/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Back to the future of farming</a>, Editorial<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-lockdown-chance-for-self-sufficiency-in-veggies/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal lockdown chance for self-sufficiency in veggies</a>, Ramesh KumarSporting events are cancelled, competition abandoned, arenas empty, stadiums forsaken, games aborted, scoreboards blank, ladders and league tables on hold. The massive preparations for race meets, world cups and Olympics evaporate in the face of the most destructive viral onslaught of our lifetimes.Footballers have hung up their boots, racehorses remain in their stables, and the green lawns of Wimbledon see no tennis served with Pimms and strawberries. In bizarre efforts to keep audiences engaged, matches are played in vacant venues, and Formula One and sailing regattas have resorted to virtual events online. There is no fear of missing out, as the sporting world is on ‘pause’.Desperate people queue around the block, snaking for hours through socially distanced circles, for <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/feeding-1000-a-day-in-kathmandu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">free meals</a> or access to food banks – and not just daily wage earners deprived of employment in emerging nations, but white-collar workers in the world’s major capitals of London, Paris and New York.Public parks are enjoyed only by ducks on the ponds, solitary trees and insects in the flowers, blushing unseen in the deserted gardens. Jobs are being lost, companies collapsing, rents unpaid, loans and mortgages reneged.In Nepal we are familiar with political shutdowns closing the roads and shuttering the shops, strikes that never lasted more than a day or two. The strict curfew that accompanied the king agreeing to lift the ban on political parties in April 1990 was only suffered for three days.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/survive-2020-revive-in-2021-and-thrive-in-2022/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">"Survive 2020, revive in 2021 and thrive in 2022"</a>, Alisha Sijapati<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/feeding-1000-a-day-in-kathmandu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Feeding 1,000 a day in Kathmandu</a>, Lisa ChoegyalWe are exhorted to stay safe and shelter in place, as the walls close in and perimeters shrink, moulded by the relentless confines of our homes. Rooms contract and expand, depending on our state of mind and time of day. Vivid night dreams infiltrate beyond sleep to penetrate the waking hours. Is that a dent on the sofa cushion where I have been sitting glued to my laptop day after day, week after week?Tenzin paces the driveway, wearing out his prayer beads, the tyres of his unused car softening on the flagstones. The cuckoos have arrived and the whistling thrush has nested. The roses have budded, bloomed and died, the extravagant white petals of the magnolia have exploded before wilting waxy brown, and the cherry tree has carpeted the ground with crimson blossom and is now clad in hopeful fresh green.Within the relentless rhythm of the lockdown the formless days unfold, measured in perpetual birdsong and sheets of vitamin pills, all plans in suspension, all projects on hold. In theory, now is the chance to read, watch movies, wallow in Netflix, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/music-is-my-aeroplane-too/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">listen to music</a>  sort photos, fix the house, and call friends but in reality I struggle with the focus and motivation to do any of it.I have learned to value every cup of coffee, waste no food, and prize the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-lockdown-chance-for-self-sufficiency-in-veggies/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">fresh vegetables</a> bought from the end of the lane. How sweet is that first mango of the season, and with what difficulties must it have travelled to arrive whole and perfect green and gold on our kitchen table.None of us has seen anything on this scale before and emerging the other side of it will have its own unknown shocks and challenges. But when we do, and when we are asked in some future virus-free era: ‘What was it like during the time of Covid-19, the great pandemic of 2020?’, these are the moments and memories I do not want to forget.

economic-fallout

Economic cost of 5 months of Nepal lockdown

Coronavirus Nepal Lockdown Month 2