Assaulted daily by news of politicians getting away with larceny, convicted criminals being freed, impunity and then the tragic news of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/war-in-israel-earthquake-and-grief-in-nepal">10 students brutally killed</a> by Hamas in Israel, the mood ahead of Dasain this year is subdued.
<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/state-malfunction">Adding to the woes</a> are everyday economic worries about inflation, low purchasing power, a slump in retail trading. Street front shops are shuttered, and have to-let signs. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
But at the macro-economic level, things are looking rosy, with Finance Minister Prakash Sharan Mahat trying to raise spirits this week by declaring that the death of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/business-as-unusual">Nepal's economy</a> was exaggerated.
The World Bank has projected that the economy will grow by 3.9% this fiscal year, and by 5% in fiscal 2025.&nbsp;
Removing import restrictions, loosening monetary policy, surging remittances, and the locomotive of India’s economic growth together appear to be pulling Nepal’s wagons along.&nbsp;
But the Bank also warned of risks: an <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/sikkim-flood-is-warning-to-nepal">erratic monsoon </a>that could harm agriculture, a new spike in commodity prices due to India’s food export ban. Higher inflation could keep policy rates elevated, increase domestic debt servicing costs, and drag growth.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) projected Nepal’s economic growth at a slightly higher 4.3% for fiscal 2024, up from 1.9% in 2023. But both projections are far short of the government’s 6% growth target, and behind India, Bangladesh and Bhutan.
The overall scenario does not look precarious because of bulging forex reserves driven by last year’s import restrictions and remittances.&nbsp;
From suffering daily electricity rationing Nepal is now exploring exports, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/it-is-it">the IT sector is booming</a>, e-commerce has taken off, and agriculture is going from subsistence to commercial.&nbsp;
However, all this could have happened much more rapidly with better policy implementation. Money <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/guest-editorial/the-migration-myth">Nepalis abroad</a> send home is not being invested in productive sectors.
“Nepal needs $7-8 billion in investment per year. Capital formation is low, so we have to get more FDI. The scale of projects that need to come up has to be larger so that it can drive legislative and institutional reforms,” says Sujeev Shakya of Beed Management. “Only then can we create jobs, accelerate the economy and stem migration.”
<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/state-sponsored-economic-crisis-ikcxxmnp">Nepal’s economy has been stagnant </a>in recent years, with high inflation, fiscal imbalance, inadequate investment, low domestic production, deteriorating bank asset quality, and mass out-migration. Export continues to lag further behind burgeoning imports.
Nepal’s economy is still reeling from long-Covid complications, but many of the underlying problems are structural, and lack of strategic thinking.&nbsp;
The economy did reap the peace dividend in the 2006-2016 decade after the peace agreement: fiscal management was in good shape, public debt was decreasing, the external sector was robust, and resources for expanding credit was adequate.&nbsp;
Investment in infrastructure at that time could have boosted growth and created jobs, but the private sector opted for quick returns on real estate, stock market speculation and trade. Politicians also never followed through on grand speeches about attracting and retaining foreign investors.&nbsp;
Coalition politics, bureaucratic inefficiency and counterintuitive policies<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/state-of-the-state"> remain major hurdles</a>. The private sector shielded by insular policies do not want the status quo to change, even though there has been no major economic reform legislation for four long years.
One does not need a Nobel Prize in Economics to figure out what to do: move on the next set of macro-fiscal reforms, create a genuine investment friendly environment, and curb the rampant rent-seeking mindset.&nbsp;
Often accused of being a compulsive optimist, Shakya maintains that although the road is serpentine, Nepal is moving in the right direction. “Nepalis are resilient,” he notes.&nbsp;
“We overcame war, earthquake, blockade and Covid. We are generally happy with what we have, but what Nepal needs is forward-thinking policies and transformative reforms to actually drive the economy forward.” &nbsp;

Sahina Shrestha

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To-let

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111015118/636d06a19c7e80680e0a5f74jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>The pandemic has thrown a wrench into the global economic machine, curtailing growth in many parts of the world. Governments and businesses are now directing all of their energy toward restoring the old normal and the pre-pandemic growth rate. And yet, our policy mantra really should be the opposite: ‘No going back’.After all, in the pre-pandemic world, we were hurtling toward the very end of human existence on this planet, owing to climate change, the concentration of wealth in fewer and fewer hands, and the development of artificial intelligence (AI) applications that will render more and more of the remaining hands redundant.Scientists have long been warning us that runaway global warming will sharply limit our time on this planet. The countdown has already begun. Humanity has made itself an endangered species. It would be suicidal to return to the pre-pandemic world. Why should we get back on a track that will lead us off a cliff?Now that so much of the economy has stopped, there is no better time to reorient it in a different direction. The pandemic has created an opportunity to chart a new course to a world defined by three zeros: net-zero carbon dioxide emissions, zero poverty, and zero unemployment.Redesigning the system is our only option. We are prolonging a party in a burning house, celebrating economic growth and our technological miracles, and dancing to songs of prosperity. The songs keep us complacent about the fact that our party is what started the fire.Young people around the world realise this and have been trying to shut it down and extinguish the flames. Teenagers have been marching and demanding change. Some openly accuse their parents of stealing their future. Governments at least have shown awareness by announcing net-zero targets, just as businesses have signed on to the Sustainable Development Goals.But how much of this is real, and how much of it is public relations? A true commitment would entail a fundamental change in our economic thinking, and an end to pursuing GDP growth for its own sake. This new thinking would force us to acknowledge the dangerous world we have created and compel us to address the steady accumulation of wealth at the top, which comes at the expense of so many at the bottom.As matters stand, governments continue to follow their usual politically safe path. They are announcing environmental goals, but not acting with any apparent urgency. No country is showing any real concern about wealth concentration or AI. It has thus fallen on ordinary people, particularly the young, to mobilise against a broken status quo.Capitalism is based on the assumption that human beings are driven by self-interest. This nostrum will need to be reformulated to reflect what human beings are actually like. I would say that people are driven partly by self-interest but mostly by collective interest.The assumption that only self-interest matters is what led economists to lay the intellectual foundation for corporate profit-maximisation. But once one acknowledges the role of collective interest, this model no longer holds. We will need a new framework for business.A firm driven by collective interest doesn’t need the individual profit motive; rather, its success hinges on whether it provides financially sustainable solutions to collective problems, and its profits are therefore plowed back into its business. This is not merely theoretical: I have created precisely this kind of “social business” in my own work.Would this approach spell the end of capitalism? No, because profit-maximising businesses would still be able to function side by side with social businesses. It would be up to individual firms to decide which model to embrace. Someone could choose to engage in profit-maximising business, social business, or both – either separately or at the same time. Both types of businesses would participate in the same marketplace under the same regulatory authorities.Obviously, people are not driven solely by personal profit. If they were, there would be no such thing as charity. Likewise, 'investment' is not limited to uses of money that maximise personal profit. Regardless of whether one buys the shares of a profit-driven company or of a social business, one has made an investment.People who invest in social business do not doubt that making money could bring them some happiness; but they recognise that investing to help others (a collective interest) would bring them even more. Those who share this outlook will actually prefer to invest in social businesses.Ultimately, these value judgments are rooted in our minds – that is where one finds happiness and recognises its true source. I, for one, can find many uses for my money. I can donate it, keep it under the bed, buy lottery tickets, invest in social businesses, or invest in profit-maximising businesses. But it is not obvious how I should decide between these options, because maximising happiness is not the same thing as maximising profit.The old assumption behind capitalism has fooled us on many levels. Worst of all, it has made us believe that happiness can be measured by how much money we have. Under the old system, all citizens are supposed to stay busy maximising profits and paying taxes, with those government revenues going toward solving whatever common problems the country faces.But the government’s involvement in solving social problems has itself led to political polarisation. Some argue that governments should minimise taxes and steer clear of addressing problems that should be left to markets to sort out. Others argue that the government should take more responsibility for solving social problems, with taxes rising to whatever level is needed.But either way, there are no circumstances in which individuals should remain mere spectators. We all must bring our own creativity to bear on social problems. Once citizens become active in addressing shared challenges, results soon follow.Smart governmentThe smart government is one that creates space and incentives for citizens to get involved. It will inspire people and applaud their achievements, while establishing the necessary legal and administrative structures to support their initiatives. For example, governments can create the conditions for social business funds, social business venture capital, and social business micro-entrepreneur banks.The point, here, is not to diminish the importance of government. Rather, it is to activate the state’s organising function. A government’s capacity should be judged not by its tax revenue, but by the power it gives to the people. Guiding and inspiring grassroots action can achieve much more than any amount of revenue can.Economic and social transformations are easier when governments demonstrate the appropriate leadership. If governments were to become enthusiastic participants in forging a path to a new future, the process would be much smoother and much faster. At the core of this process is the creation of new institutions.For example, we need financial institutions to ensure that every young person can become an entrepreneur if she doesn’t want to wait in line for a job. The state can establish these options by codifying a legal framework for social business venture capital funds, and by creating incentives for firms to create social businesses in parallel to their conventional businesses.In too many countries, however, there is no financing arrangement for a young person who wants to start her own business. Finance is the fuel of entrepreneurship, but as long as loan sharks are the only ones offering it, social businesses will never get off the ground. Micro-entrepreneurs need specialized banks that can cater to their specific needs, including in remote and isolated places.Consider someone who starts selling shirts on the street. He may sell five per day, even though he has the capacity to sell 50. With no money to expand his business, he gives up and gets a job (possibly in the informal economy, where he has no benefits or legal protections). If money had been available, he would have had many other choices. He could give up wage employment and focus on building his business; or, he could take a job while continuing to sell shirts on the side.Technology has a major role to play in all this. It could be a blessing or a curse, depending on which direction we want to take it. It is easy to imagine how AI could bring endless benefits to people, but not when it is being designed and deployed to replace human workers on a massive scale.When we create a new technology, we have an obligation to consider where and how it should and should not be used. Technology is not an autonomous force, but rather a human creation that reflects our own values and intentions. Medicine was invented to cure people, but medical knowledge and technologies obviously can be used to kill people, too. A general-purpose technology like AI is no different.I believe that AI development is currently headed in the wrong direction, because it is being used to maximise profits by reducing profit-driven firms’ labor costs. We must stop this trend before it is too late. Unlike other technologies, AI could theoretically reproduce itself, at which point it would have no limit.The pandemic has given us an opportunity to start working toward a new world of net-zero emissions, zero poverty, and zero unemployment. To that end, we will need to dispense with fossil fuels and deploy renewables on a global scale. We will need to stop eating beef and pumping out single-use plastic products. And we will have to do far more to preserve and replenish forests and other important ecosystems.We also must redesign banking so that financial services are accessible even to homeless people. We must stop allowing wealth to become increasingly concentrated. We must think seriously about the threats posed by AI. And we must take social business mainstream.Humans are an endangered species. If we continue down the same path, we will become an extinct one – and possibly quite soon, depending on the choices we make right now.© Project SyndicateMuhammad Yunus, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, is the founder of Grameen Bank.

The pandemic opportunity

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141112/636ba76b9c7e80680e073781jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>Photo: AJAYA UPADHAYAYA</figcaption></figure>As serious as the rapid spread in Nepal of the novel coronavirus looks, even more frightening is what the lockdown meant to prevent it will do to the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-economy-already-weak-takes-direct-hit/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-economy-already-weak-takes-direct-hit/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1598352647267000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHMB3uRxLtXPB1J9V0PQdJF-f6E6w">country’s economy</a>. The health impact of the virus may pale in comparison to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-plans-to-revive-economy-hit-by-covid-19/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-plans-to-revive-economy-hit-by-covid-19/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1598352647267000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHZ73Q3ug57-h3IKB7NUBfuqD8LyQ">long-term damage</a> to the country from a prolonged lockdown that enters its sixth month today.It is difficult to make predictions on how Nepal’s economy will fare till the end of the year because that will depend on how the virus behaves. But all indications are of that SARS-CoV-2 is here to stay, and that it will resurface with added virulence in winter.On 21 July when Finance Minister Yubaraj Khatiwada triumphantly announced that the pandemic in Nepal had peaked, and the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-ends-covid-19-lockdown/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-ends-covid-19-lockdown/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1598352647268000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEfmOWpPyfs0PHIzdD4yHmecUC6hg">lockdown had been lifted</a>, traders, businesses and industries were cautiously optimistic. But since then there has been a surge, with cases and fatalities more than doubling in the past three weeks.Aside from essential food and other items, business transactions are down by more than half since 24 March when the restrictions were first announced. Even when the lockdown was eased last month, the people’s purchasing capacity had gone down and businesses did not really pick up.The Rastra Bank estimates that it will take at least nine months after the lockdown is fully lifted for the economy to come back to previous levels. This means Nepal is not going to see a recovery this fiscal year. The central bank says 22.5% of those employed in the country have lost their jobs in the past five months of lockdown.The central bank expects Nepal’s economic growth rate to plunge from 6.9% last year to less than 1% this year. But the World Bank is even more pessimistic, it says the growth rate may even go into negative 2.8% if the crisis continues.“Everything is at a complete standstill, there are no transactions taking place except people buying food from day to day,” says Shekhar Golchha of the Federation of Nepalese Chambers of Commerce and Industries (FNCCI). “The question is how long before businesses run out of cash to pay salaries, and families run out of savings.”Factories along the Itahari-Biratnagar and Simara-Birganj corridors have been hardest hit not just by the plunge in demand but because workers who had returned from India after 21 July started falling sick.One of those hit was Jagadamba Steels, whose Sahil Agrawal says: “The sale of steel rods had picked up somewhat after the lockdown was lifted, but after workers tested positive, the local administration closed the factories. Now, with the lockdown everything is closed.”Even worse hit is the tourism and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/domestic-flights-need-to-resume-so-the-economy-can-take-off/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/domestic-flights-need-to-resume-so-the-economy-can-take-off/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1598352647268000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHQz5xiYmnvrrNu2XXeOqvI6eqyXQ">aviation sector</a> where revenue is zero for the past five months. Banks had given loans worth Rs1.1 trillion for hotels and restaurants, and had lent Rs40 billion to the transport sector. They are not in a position to replay even the interest, let alone the capital.Imports are down 20%, from Rs1.7 trillion in the first half of last year compared to only Rs85 billion in the same period this year. That should be good news, but it means the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-unveils-covid-19-budget/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-unveils-covid-19-budget/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1598352647268000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEHmYyroAVpq5ZVmt1E9zdYH6duUQ">government’s tax revenue</a> has gone down by more than half.The middle class has been hit hardest with incomes falling. Of the 923,000 registered businesses in Nepal, nearly all are small and medium enterprises employing less than ten people. As a result, house and property transactions have gone down by half last month compared to the same period in 2019.“Except for mobile phones, motorcycles, fast moving consumer goods, nothing else is moving,” says Golchha. “Even when they do shop consumers are buying cheaper items, which is an indicator of a drastic fall in income.”Even the sale of alcohol products are down by up to 80%. Bhat Bhateni Supermarket’s Panu Poudel says turnover in the nationwide chain had picked up after 21 July, but was still down by a third, but now it is back to zero again.But the real barometer of just how bad the crisis is can be felt in the banking sector where on the one hand liquidity is overflowing because of reduction in loan disbursement, but collection has also shrunk because of defaults. The print editions of the Nepali language press in the past month are full of bank notices for auctions of collateral property. However, even if the property is up for auction, they may be no buyers.In the whole of July-August the banks collected Rs34 trillion in loan repayments, but they lent only Rs28 billion. “The reason is that it is difficult enough just to survive for businesses, and they are in no position to take a loan to invest,” says businessman Pashupati Murarka.The government had told borrowers they had a grace period till December to repay bank loans without being put on the defaulters’ black list, but it is looking like even that is being optimistic.One ray of hope for businesses was that public spending would increase in the run up to Dasain, which this year falls at the end of October. But most businessmen have given up on a Dasain-Tihar revival this year. Car sales used to go up at this time, but the Nepal Automobile Dealers’ Association has cancelled its annual auto show, and its chair Krishna Dulal says: “This year we are just trying to get by, there is no hope for sales.”With revenue down, the government will be forced to borrow. But the state borrowing already makes up 37% equivalent of the GDP, and it could go up to 51% by the end of this fiscal year. Economist Govinda Bahadur Thapa says the government may run out of money if the current trend continues. He says: “We have brought the economy to a standstill to save lives, but we need to save the economy as well. It is a very difficult balance.”Former finance secretary Rameshore Khanal is not as pessimistic. Although he does not discount the seriousness of the crisis, he thinks what could save Nepal is that it is still largely a subsistence economy and families have coping mechanisms to get by in times of extreme hardships. For example, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/cash-flow-crisis-for-migrants-and-families/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/cash-flow-crisis-for-migrants-and-families/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1598352647268000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEYYoLn_p_-ES3VLLcSEZMh_J0QPQ">remittances from Nepalis working overseas</a> have not gone down despite predictions it would drop drastically.He says the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/ways-nepal-can-rebound-from-covid-19/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/ways-nepal-can-rebound-from-covid-19/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1598352647268000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH425REk3c_X8wnX5A6WbreQBdGKw">crisis also presents opportunities</a> for the government. “We can have a pro-active policy to channel unemployed Nepalis to the jobs 1.5 million Indian workers used to do before they went home, and this would be the time to flood the market with liquidity in order to inject cash and raise purchasing power.”Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/ways-nepal-can-rebound-from-covid-19/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/ways-nepal-can-rebound-from-covid-19/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1598352647268000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH425REk3c_X8wnX5A6WbreQBdGKw">Ways Nepal can rebound from Covid-19</a>, Bikash Pandey

Economic cost of 5 months of Nepal lockdown

<figure><img title="page-1a" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108151124/636a66fe9c7e80680e0599b5jpeg.jpg" alt="page-1a"/><figcaption>Photo : SHEILIN TEO</figcaption></figure>At the cusp of a new year and a new decade, Nepalis must take stock of promises not kept and the opportunities lost to take the country forward in the last 10 years.In 2010, there was optimism that with <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=10616#.XftPE9UzbIV" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the war ended</a> and a new <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-constitution-3-years-later/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">constitution</a> being drafted, the country could convert stability into prosperity. The vision was turned into a political slogan, but the decade was squandered.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38038&amp;preview_nonce=e8166bf726&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Another decade to get it right</a>, Editorial<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38051&amp;preview_nonce=38f8426e6c&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal in 2030,</a> Sanghamitra SubbaThe most spectacular failure has been in governance, and over the past two years. Despite local elections that promised accountability and a ruling party commanding a two-thirds majority, Nepal is still drifting aimlessly without a coherent strategy for the future.But Nepal never fails to surprise. We make progress regardless of all the obstacles. This is the only low-income country with low growth that has more than halved its <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/Nepal-%20Multidimensional-Poverty-Index,4115" target="_blank" rel="noopener">poverty rate in the past 10 years</a>. Despite conflict and disasters, and despite government, Nepal took rapid strides in human development. Imagine how much further we would have gone if we had better leadership.Read also:<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38061&amp;preview_nonce=012fb23553&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal in the 2020s</a>, Sewa Bhattarai<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38073&amp;preview_nonce=5c5e53a600&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">How will Nepal develop in the next decade?,</a> Sonia AwaleIn this year-ender edition we take a look forward to see what the coming decade has in store for us. Where will Nepal be in 2030? Planners, and even astrologers, are optimistic the country will take a great leap forward.We would like to believe National Planning Commission Member Min Bahadur Shahi when he says: “The 2020s will be a progressive decade of sustainable and just development. There will be double-digit growth, increased investment from the government and the focus will be on quality, not quantity.”Read also: <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38046&amp;preview_nonce=d2d7129548&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A future written in the stars,</a> Sanghamitra SubbaNepalis have been let down before, and they will have a chance in 2022 to cast their verdict in the next elections. But the challenge for planners is to get out of the low-growth, high-migration trap so the country can graduate to middle-income status by 2030.

Towards 2030

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108151124/636a66fa9c7e80680e0599b4jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1081"/><figcaption>Photo : BIKRAM RAI</figcaption></figure>Nepal is recognised as the only low-income country to have made rapid progress cutting poverty and boosting public health and education in recent decades. But can these achievements be sustained in the 2020-2030 decade?The <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/GUEST-COLUMN/Saving-one-mother-at-a-time,816" target="_blank" rel="noopener">country’s maternal mortality rate decreased</a> from 539 deaths per 100,000 live births to 239 deaths between 1996 and 2016. The adult literacy rate rose from 20% in the 1980s to 67% in 2018, and the proportion of Nepalis living below the poverty line <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-great-income-divide/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">dropped from 42% to 21% in two decades</a>.Yet the poorest still <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/federalism-leaves-nepals-medical-sector-ailing/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">do not have access to affordable healthcare</a>. The school dropout rate is as high as the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=41#.XftNv5MzaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">enrolment rate</a>. In urban centres, people breathe <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/air-pollution-is-more-dangerous-than-smoking/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">some of the foulest air in the world</a>, reducing their life expectancy by up to four years. Many lack safe drinking water.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38023&amp;preview_nonce=024823c344&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Towards 2030</a><a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38038&amp;preview_nonce=e8166bf726&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Another decade to get it right,</a> Editorial<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38061&amp;preview_nonce=012fb23553&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal in the 2020s,</a> Sewa BhattaraiLocal elections in 2017, after a gap of 20 years, were supposed to close these gaps by delivering accountable, elected leaders. Two years later, the euphoria has evaporated. The state of the state remains stagnant.“The elections helped us rebuild grassroots democracy and decentralise power, but the lack of accountability at all levels of government continues to be a major challenge,” says Min Bahadur Shahi of the National Planning Commission (NPC). “This is why the primary agenda of the NPC’s 15th periodic plan is governance reform, controlling corruption and promoting transparency.”As we step into the new decade, there are questions about Nepal’s progress in human development, including whether we are on track to meet the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and achieve double-digit growth. Reaching these targets will require huge investments in healthcare, schools and nutrition. With the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/poor-health-makes-nepalis-poorer/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">emergence of non-communicable diseases</a>, Nepal now faces a double burden: rising rates of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/diabetes-in-south-asia,3018" target="_blank" rel="noopener">diabetes</a>, cardiovascular diseases and cancer, which are expensive to treat, while the poor continue to die of easily curable infections.Said Sanjib Sharma, doctor at the BP Koirala Institute for Health Sciences in Dharan: “Our efforts now should be on strengthening primary health care and prevention and early detection of diseases using existing tools, as well as new technologies such as artificial intelligence for virtual expert consultation and drug delivery.”Read also: <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38051&amp;preview_nonce=38f8426e6c&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal in 2030,</a> Sanghamitra Subba<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38046&amp;preview_nonce=d2d7129548&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A future written in the stars,</a> Sanghamitra SubbaDespite poverty falling by half, one-third of Nepali children <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nearly-half-of-nepali-children-still-malnourished/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">are still malnourished</a>. Anaemia among women has actually increased in recent years. The government’s Multi-sectoral Nutrition Plan, developed in 2012, works to improve maternal and child health, vaccination rates and malnutrition.“Development in Nepal is still synonymous with roads, but investing in early childhood development is equally important, it is a component of development,” said Kiran Rupakheti of the NPC, which wants nutrition programs to reach the grassroots.Even as literacy rates rise, gender disparity is expected to continue in the coming decade. As female literacy improves, for instance, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/child-marriage-in-nepal-eloped-at-13-mother-by-17/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">child marriage</a> and <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=19596#.XftPh5MzaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">girls’ dropout rates</a> will persist. Experts say improving the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/after-quantity-nepals-education-needs-quality/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">quality of instruction</a> at community schools, encouraging female students in technical fields and promoting applied education should be priority areas in the 10 years ahead.Nepal is expected to graduate from lower-middle-income country status by 2030, but that is unlikely if the SDGs goals are not met. For this, the government will need to spend $1billion a year in infrastructure alone. Nepal is hoping to sustain <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/guest-editorial/guest-editorial-Nepal-economic-growth,923" target="_blank" rel="noopener">double-digit growth</a> of above 10% and achieve per capita income of $1,595 by the end of the decade.“I’m hopeful about our prospects but if we uplift the economic status of women, who make up more than half of the population, we will get there sooner,” said Saru Joshi, gender and development expert.<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2017/05/24/bleak-economic-report/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A 2017 World Bank report</a>, however, stated that if present trends continue Nepal will not reach its middle-income target. It pointed out that despite rapid reduction in the poverty rate, the country’s development path has not led to economic growth but perpetuated a shortage of jobs at home, which in turn is fuelling further <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/reducing-labour-pain/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">outmigration</a>. And while remittance accounts for one-third of the national GDP, it is a symptom of deep-seated, chronic problems.Planners say that a slew of new hydropower and large infrastructure projects planned for the next 10 years, a boom in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/guiding-nepals-tourism-industry/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">tourism and the service sector</a>, and better connectivity will create jobs at home, discouraging youth from seeking employment elsewhere.“We know our targets are ambitious but we also have the most favourable environment to achieve it. There is finally stability, the present growth is already at 7%, some <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/decentralising-hydropower/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">major hydropower projects</a> are taking off and we have made huge investments in information technology,” said Rupakheti.Shahi forecasts optimistically: “The 2020s will be a progressive decade of sustainable and just development. There will be prosperity along with social justice. There will be double-digit growth, increased investment from the government and the focus will be on quality, not quantity.”

Sonia Awale

How will Nepal develop in the next decade?

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108151124/636a66f29c7e80680e0599b1jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1062"/><figcaption>Photo : SONIA AWALE</figcaption></figure>Nepal is stepping up preparations for its 10-year census in 2021, which is slated to be the most hitech in history and will go beyond simply counting the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Nepals-changing-demography-is-having-profound-impact-on-politics,2693" target="_blank" rel="noopener">country’s population</a> to surveying households in order to chart the country’s path in the coming decade.Read also:<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38051&amp;preview_nonce=38f8426e6c&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal in 2030</a>, Sanghamitra Subba<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38046&amp;preview_nonce=d2d7129548&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A future written in the stars,</a> Sanghamitra SubbaEnumerators from the <a style="letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://cbs.gov.np/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Central Bureau of Statistics</a> (CBS) will be using tablets to enter data during a pilot census in 14 districts next month. The actual census in June 2021 is expected to give an accurate picture of Nepal’s demography and how it has progressed in <a style="letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/this-is-how-to-upgrade-nepals-rural-health/">health</a>, <a style="letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/after-quantity-nepals-education-needs-quality/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">education</a> and development.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38023&amp;preview_nonce=024823c344&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Towards 2030</a><a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38038&amp;preview_nonce=e8166bf726&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Another decade to get it right,</a> Editorial<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38073&amp;preview_nonce=5c5e53a600&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">How will Nepal develop in the next decade?,</a> Sonia AwaleFor the first time, data will be collected at the lowest administrative unit, the ward, and also include information on housing, migration, jobs and income. The census will cost Rs4.5 billion and employ 43,000 enumerators.“Previous censuses only went down to the district level, and enumerators used two forms: a short form for every household, and a long form used on every eighth household,” says Bijay Thapa of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), which is collaborating with the government on the census. “After federalism, local governments also want disaggregated data and we will have detailed information on every household.”Next year’s exercise will also count the number of old and new buildings and note whether they are residential, official, commercial or unused. It will include a community survey, one of the first in the world, to assess availability of government services, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/disastrous-management-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">disaster preparedness</a> and access to natural resources.“This will help us determine if people are making the best use of government services,” says CBS Director Dhundiraj Lamichhane. “Nepal has categorised 276 municipalities as urban, but we do not know if the resources available match the international criteria for urban municipalities. This survey will help us determine that. If successful, it will be a model for other countries.”Read also: <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38051&amp;preview_nonce=38f8426e6c&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal in 2030,</a> Sanghamitra Subba<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38051&amp;preview_nonce=38f8426e6c&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A future written in the stars,</a>Sanghamitra SubbaLamichhane said the questions enumerators will ask have not yet been finalised, but there are demands from various communities to include ones on mother tongue, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-right-of-passage/">disabilities</a> and sexual orientation. Activists say there are 900,000 <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Night-and-%20Day,3145">LGBTI people in Nepal</a>, but the 2011 census showed only 1,500 so the figure was not included in the results.“This time they want more detailed questions to reflect their diversity, but we think it is better to do a separate survey,” says Lamichhane. “Various castes and ethnicities are also demanding to be included, but we will only do so if recommended by relevant government bodies.”Going by past trends and other sample surveys, experts have already projected results of the 2021. Nepal is expected to continue showing improvements on most indicators, including birth rate, population growth, health and education. However, they say some indicators, like the sex ratio and migration, may not show progress.One of the reasons Nepal’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/migrating-males-and-population-decline/">population growth rate is low is because of the absentee population</a>: 1.92 million according to the last census. And there is no reason to believe that the percentage of migrants will decrease or even stabilise in next year’s count. However, internal migration is expected to slow because of more education and employment opportunities at local levels.Nepal’s current sex ratio is 94 males per 100 females,<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108151124/636a66f59c7e80680e0599b2jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="461" height="500">and the sex ratio at birth is 106 males per 100 females. This is considered normal, since there are usually slightly more male children born than females, but females tend to live longer.“Female foeticide is growing even though it is illegal. The next census may show a greater ratio of male babies born to female ones, and we estimate the sex ratio at birth to rise to 110 males to 100 females. Additionally, the national average may hide greater discrepancies in certain districts or cities where female foeticide is more rampant, and we need to watch out for that,” explains Tirtha Tamang of UNFPA.Demographic indicators like birth, fertility and death rates are all set to decrease, which means that Nepal’s population growth rate will continue to slow. The 2021 census is likely to show a wider ‘youth bulge’ in the population pyramid. Although this provides a ‘<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/editorial-reaping-demographic-dividend,3621">demographic dividend</a>,’ with a bigger workforce that could lead to a development boom, Nepal must be able to cash in on this window of opportunity in the next 10 years. Given the current quality of governance, experts doubt it will happen.Nepal’s youth advantage will last till 2047. After that, the country will be grappling with the complications of <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/need-to-prepare-for-ageing-society,3624">an ageing society</a>. In fact, Nepal will start losing some of its youth power about 2028, when the population over 65 will be more than 7%. The next decade is key for Nepal to use its demographic dividend to provide jobs at home and boost economic growth.Despite improvements in education, health, life expectancy and income, the country may not be in a position to make the best of its demographic dividend because of the skewed sex ratio caused by <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/irresistible-forces-wage-differentials-and-demographic-trends/">outmigration</a>. According to a report by the National Planning Commission, the country sorely needs to invest in policies that make the best of the potential of youth.Says Lamichhane at the CBS: “If young Nepalis at the peak of their abilities <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/migration-certificate/">continue to leave the country</a>, then Nepal will not make great strides in development. In the next decade we need policies to modernise agriculture and improve infrastructure if we want to retain our youth and have them contribute to the country.”<h2>21 of Nepal’s most endangered languages</h2>When Nepal’s last census was published in 2011, language became one of the most hotly-debated indicators. Many doubted that the census accurately reflected the status of Nepal’s languages. This time, the Language Commission is working with the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) to make a more comprehensive tally.The 2011 census counted 123 languages spoken in Nepal, including foreign languages like English, French, Spanish and Chinese. Also, there was a belief that many people who had forgotten their ancestral language nevertheless registered those languages as their mother tongue, leading to higher numbers of speakers of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Mind-your-languages,133" target="_blank" rel="noopener">endangered languages</a> registered than in reality. The Kusunda language, for example, has only two speakers left, but the census records 28.“The languages should be categorised as foreign and native to Nepal, so that we don’t count European languages as our own,” says Bharat Tripathi of the Language Commission. “Also, the last time there were only two questions asked about language: <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=13412#.XftV_JMzaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">mother tongue</a> and second language. This time we want to change that to: mother tongue, second language and ancestral language.”<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108151124/636a66f79c7e80680e0599b3jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="947">While the CBS is still debating these suggestions, it has agreed to include six more languages newly catalogued by the Language Commission, bringing the total to 129. “We investigated Rana Tharu, Narafu, Chum, Nubri/Lharke, Poike and Serake languages in the past year. Through linguistic methodologies, we have established that they are distinct languages,” says Tripathi. “This year we have received claims from speakers of Marek Yakhya and Walung languages in Taplejung — we are in the process of investigating them.”These languages are usually spoken by very few people, and are added to the list of endangered languages. The commission has identified 37 languages spoken by fewer than 1,000 people, and placed 21 of them on that list, but there may be many more hidden among less populous communities. The commission is working to document these 21 languages by collecting their grammar, determining their alphabets, writing their language histories and documenting the available folklore.It is doubtful if all of the 129 languages will survive even till the census in June 2021. But most certainly many will be gone by the 2031 census.

Nepal in the 2020s

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171148/636937169c7e80680e03fe17jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="696" height="841"/><figcaption>Bikram Rai</figcaption></figure>Africa marked the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/lest-we-forget/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">end of World War I</a> two weeks after Europe because it took that long to get out the message that the war had ended.Months after the end of World War II, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-time-has-come-for-a-gurkha-peace-corps/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gurkha soldiers</a> were still in the jungles of Burma looking out for Japanese troops, unaware that a peace agreement had been signed.When British officers asked them how they found their way back, one of them produced a road map of London. Today, they would use Google Maps.In a recent episode of James Corden’s The Late Late Show, the CBS late night talk show had to make a real effort to explain to younger members in the audience what a 'letter', 'envelope', 'postage stamps' and 'mail boxes' were.<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/india-watching-from-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi</a> elaborated on his connectivity strategy in an address to Nepal’s Parliament on his first visit to Nepal in 2014 with the acronym 'HIT' standing for highways, information and transmission lines.This week, the number of people online throughout the world crossed 3.9 billion – more than half the global population. It took 100 years for the first billion people to say 'hello' on a landline phone. In the early 1990s, the only way to get a phone line in Nepal was to pay a hefty bribe or to register a company and to get a landline.In India, the joke in the old days was that 5% of the population had phones, and 95% was waiting for a dial tone. And across the border in India 'ISD, STD' were ubiquitous acronyms because long after Nepal’s telecommunications went digital in the 1990s, India still had analog phones under the ‘Be Indian, Buy Indian’ philosophy. Then it was cyber cafes, and now even those have been replaced by smartphones.In Nepal, the government does not distribute free mobile phones, and there are no donor-funded projects subsidising these devices. Yet everyone, rich or poor, has a phone. On the other hand, the government with donor support has been building toilets and providing free material and training. Yet, many people are still defecating in the open.Read also: <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/half-full/take-advantage-of-Nepal-connectivity-with-India-China,1074" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Banking on Connectivity</a>, Anil ChitrakarNo one runs a literacy program on how to use a smart phone, yet everyone seems to know how to use one. Connectivity is clearly more important for people than <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/toilet-trained/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">toilets</a>. There is a willingness to pay for connectivity, but that does not seem to apply for anything else. Nepal currently has full phone coverage and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/how-nepals-media-landscape-is-being-transformed/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">72% have access to the internet</a>.Now that access is less of an issue, the content and what people use connectivity for is up for debate. The Home Ministry blames the rise in rape cases across Nepal on online pornography. E-banking, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-budding-e-commerce-ecosystem/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">e-commerce</a> and Nepalis reaching family members across the globe on Viber or Skype are all obvious benefits. China’s next great leap forward is to skip credit cards and go straight into the mobile phone payment.The government now wants to provide online services hoping to fight corruption by reducing human contact. People now go online to pay bills, check a recipe, find offices and meeting locations, check on the people they are about to meet, do research, find images and to show off selfies with celebrities.You can listen to a great lecture, read archived articles in far away libraries, video chat and negotiate deals. One wonders how the world even functioned when we were not online. The <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/kundadixit/2015/05/27/a-month-that-felt-like-a-year/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">earthquake of 2015</a> taught Nepalis to make a shift from a downloading society to an uploading one. We simply do not upload enough, but things are changing due to the social media and the trend of sharing images online.It will be interesting to analyse the data to see how many photos will be uploaded in this week’s weddings. And the results will probably show that just like the global digital divide is narrowing due to mobile connectivity, so is the digital divide within Nepal.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/how-nepals-media-landscape-is-being-transformed/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal's changing media landscape</a>Anil Chitrakar is President of Siddharthinc

Anil Chitrakar

Landline to online

<figure><img width="1024" height="628" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171136/636934139c7e80680e03dfd5jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>The joint U.S.-Nepal Trade and Investment Framework (TIFA) talks. Photo: RANDY BERRY / TWITTER</figcaption></figure>WASHINGTON -- The United States-Nepal Trade and Investment Framework (TIFA) Council held its fourth meeting on 13 November here to promote expanded bilateral trade and investment in both goods and services as well as technical assistance. The meeting was co-chaired by Mark Linscott, Assistant U.S. Trade Representative, and Chandra Kumar Ghimire, Secretary, Ministry of Industry, Commerce, and Supplies, Government of Nepal.Nepal and the United States discussed the importance of fully utilising preferential trade benefits for select products from Nepal till 2025 as a result of the Trade Facilitation and Trade Enforcement Act of 2015. The United States took note of Nepal’s interest in expanding utilisation of the trade preference program, promoting investment in Nepal, and enhancing trade capacity-building support for stronger economic growth.Negotiations focused on labour reforms, investment promotion, implementation of the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement, digital trade and e-commerce, sanitary and phytosanitary measures, as well as greater market access and reform in Nepal’s agricultural sector. The United States engaged with Nepal to identify ways to foster innovation and improve the business climate through draft legislation that would increase intellectual property protections and facilitate foreign investment. The United States expressed a willingness to explore further technical assistance to Nepal to increase trade and investment.The Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) Between the Government of Nepal and the United States of America entered into force on April 15, 2011. Objectives of the agreement include the expansion of trade, investment and technical cooperation, and strengthening economic relations between the two countries. Following the 2015 earthquakes in Nepal, the Trade Facilitation and Trade Enforcement Act of 2015 established a new country-specific preference program to grant duty-free treatment to Nepal for products covered by 77 Harmonized Tariff Schedule lines (including handicrafts, shawls, and travel goods). Nepal and the United States had $168 million in total (two-way) goods trade during 2017, a 30 percent increase compared to 2016.

U.S.-Nepal Trade and Investment Forum

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107121144/6368efab9c7e80680e035990jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1000" height="667"/><figcaption>Picture: Bikram Rai</figcaption></figure>W hen PM KP Oli assumed office in February, he was blessed with almost everything he would need to deliver on his promise of rapid economic growth: he swiftly cemented his grip on power by unifying his UML party with the Maoists, inducting one of the two Madhesi parties into government, restoring ties with <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/elementor-3766/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">India</a> and winning <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-great-march/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Chinese support</a> for large infrastructure projects.But the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/let-a-thousand-flowers-bloom/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal Communist Party</a> (NCP) government now seems to be sinking into a quagmire, like the submerged streets of Bhaktapur on Thursday (pictured, above).Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/bhaktapur-inundated/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bhaktapur inundated</a>, Om Astha Rai and Bikram RaiHis own ministers, especially ex-Maoist ones, are making things worse for the prime minister. PM-in-waiting Pushpa Kamal Dahal keeps a low profile, letting Oli stew in his own gravy as his ex-Maoist ministers mishandle hunger strikes by <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=19449#.W0hDxdUzbIV" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Govinda KC</a> and <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/The-deadline/sad-saga-of-adhikari-family,367" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gangamaya Adhikari</a>, whose separate fasts entered the 13th and the 44th days respectively on Thursday.Despite leading Nepal’s strongest government since 1990, Oli doesn’t have the flexibility to address KC’s demand to roll back a regressive medical education bill. Oli ordered police to arrest one of the accused in the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/when-our-son-was-killed/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">murder of Adhikari’s son</a> in 2004, but ex-Maoist ministers are firmly against the extradition of another accused, Rudra Acharya, from Northern Ireland to face trial.Read also : <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/red-rice/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Red Rice</a>, EditorialInterpol has issued a red-corner notice against Acharya, believed to be the shooter. Sources say the UK is ready to extradite Acharya if the government assures in writing that he will not face capital punishment and torture. But ex-Maoists in the government are stalling, and Adhikari doesn’t want to call off her hunger strike.As other political problems fester, hope is fading that Oli can expedite economic growth. The private sector was cautiously optimistic about a Communist government, now it is nervous.Shekhar Golchha of the Federation of Nepalese Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FNCCI), told us: “The way this government is dealing with the private sector is very frustrating.”Home Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa is on a selective crackdown. He ordered the arrest of four sugar mill owners for not paying farmers. He detained contractors for not completing construction in time, but NCP co-Chair Dahal’s landlord Sharada Adhikari enjoys impunity even though his firm is reportedly responsible for massive delays in high profile projects.When a delegation of businessmen protested the high-handedness, ex-Maoist Industry Minister Matrika Yadav warned: “Be careful. This is a people’s government, it is not for businessmen.”Finance Minister <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2018/02/26/yuba-raj-khatiwadas-turn/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Yuba Raj Khatiwada</a>, the architect of Oli’s economic vision, is raising taxes, but doing little to win the private sector’s confidence on investment.Ex-banker Anal Raj Bhattarai says: “The hope that the investment climate would improve is fading fast, and this government is squandering a golden chance to set things right.”Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/oli-reassures-india-before-china-visit/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Oli reassures India before China visit</a><a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-modi-fied-oli/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A Modi-fied Oli</a>, Om Astha Rai<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/kundadixit/page/5/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lethal politics of a sick nation</a>, Kunda Dixit

That sinking feeling

Earlier this month, Nepal received Rs1.6 billion from the World Bank as part of its <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/will-nepal-ever-be-paid-for-saving-trees">Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF)</a>, rewarding the country for increasing its carbon sink capacity. Nepal is the first in South Asia to benefit from this facility, and it is specifically to recompense the country for increasing forest cover in 13 Tarai districts between 2018-2024. “We are also trying to get another Rs13 billion from the facility while also preparing for free market-based carbon trading in the international market,” says Nabaraj Pudasaini of the REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries) Implementation Centre. Big emitters of greenhouse gases are under pressure to reduce their carbon emissions, and many have signed agreements to do so by investing in decarbonisation projects in developing countries. Countries that emit more than a specified amount of carbon would be able to buy emission rights from countries that emit less. Nepal is internationally known for its community forestry program which has been largely credited for <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/tree-mendous">increasing tree cover to over 45%</a> in less than three decades. But this achievement had not been adequately recognised or rewarded internationally before. Forests, especially in the tropics, absorb and store large amounts of carbon while releasing oxygen in a process known as photosynthesis. <a href="https://www.fao.org/forest-resources-assessment/en/">Preventing deforestation</a> and increasing canopy cover is considered a much more achievable goal than reducing emission in the scale necessary to limit global average temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. COP11 in Montreal in 2005 first proposed reducing carbon emissions by improving forest quality by halting degradation. By 2015, a new mechanism of financial assistance was created to help less developed countries with sustainable management of forests <a href="https://www.un-redd.org/">(called REDD+)</a>. Under this new mechanism, countries receive aid based on their efforts to prevent forest degradation and increase carbon sink, and in 2021 the World Bank was entrusted with implementing it. Nepal’s FCPF receipt this month was calculated on the basis of 2.4 million tons of carbon stored at a rate of $5 per ton. In the second phase, Nepal will receive more than Rs4 billion within the next year for storing an additional 7 million tons of carbon. Eighty per cent of this amount obtained from carbon trading needs to be spent on local beneficiaries and indigenous communities.&nbsp; But carbon trading is not easy, Nepal needs to prove that protected forests will not be destroyed in future.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241121091132_c8a381c9a95aa86fec558951650d97bb87914741f01766982ba2b086af001f16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20241121091132_c8a381c9a95aa86fec558951650d97bb87914741f01766982ba2b086af001f16" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="999" loading="lazy" alt="Greenbacks for greenery NT "> <figcaption>Photo: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption> </figure>  Explains carbon trading expert Yugan Manandhar. “Forests should be handed over to the community and shown that they are managed sustainably. Proving this will be particularly challenging; forest encroachment and degradation is rife in the Tarai.” <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/nepal-is-going-up-in-smoke">Deliberate forest fires</a> have also added to the challenge because they increase carbon emissions and reduce the sink capacity of forests. The basis for the amount that Nepal received was set five years ago by calculating the carbon reserves of forests in the 13 Tarai districts. In the meantime, sustainable forest management, tree plantation, forest destruction and erosion control were prioritised to increase carbon reserves in those forests. Nepal is signing another carbon trading agreement during the ongoing Baku climate conference. The <a href="https://www.leafcoalition.org/">Lowering Emissions by Accelerating Forest finance (LEAF Coalition) </a>proposes to sell the carbon stored in the forests of Bagmati, Gandaki and Lumbini provinces. For this, Nepal signed the letter of intent three years ago at COP26 in Glasgow. The target is to store 70 million tons of carbon in 32 million hectares of forest in the three provinces per which Nepal will receive Rs13 billion in four years at $10 per ton with provisions to increase the rate if various conditions are met. However, the agreement in itself doesn’t guarantee the amount. According to the targets set by Nepal, forest degradation should be stopped and carbon reserves increased by protecting tree cover. Preparations are also underway for clean air carbon trade because it has offset fossil fuel use by introducing 30,000 electric vehicles. Nepal has been selected for the first round to receive $40 million within one and a half years through the Clean Air System of the World Bank. Given that most of Nepal’s energy mix is from biomass, replacing them with electric stoves can significantly improve health by reducing indoor pollution as well as strengthen the country’s capacity for carbon trade. “Nepal's goal now is to sell carbon in the free market where carbon credits are bought and sold based on supply and demand in an open and transparent manner,” adds Pudasaini of the REDD Implementation Centre. “Nepal can now set its own price and bargain with interested buyer countries and organisations.” Lately, India has been discussing setting up a carbon market. Nepal has exported Rs12.72 billion worth of electricity to India so far this fiscal year, which can be traded under Nepal’s carbon market. “Carbon trading can create significant economic benefits for Nepal, which will help reinvest in development and environmental protection projects,” says Manandhar. “But we must prioritise sustainable management of forests, cutting older trees and allowing regrowth as well as promoting electric stoves and electric vehicles.”

Greenbacks for greenery

Khukri Rum is <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=3719#.WurBk6SFPIU">one of Nepal’s most iconic brands</a>, and is now launching a new Cask Series premium product to sell in Nepal and abroad. The Cask Series Smoked Finish Khukri Rum is a limited edition sipping rum with only about 5,200 bottles made for export and rum connoisseurs in Nepal. Each bottle is numbered and will mention the cask from which it is derived. “We are taking a classic Nepali liquor to a premium, luxury rum category. Each Cask Series flavour line will only be produced once,” explains Shuvash Lamichhane, General Manager of The Nepal Distilleries that first started making Khukri rum in 1959 in Balaju and has never stopped. Fermented from molasses in the Tarai after the annual sugarcane harvest, the rum is matured for at least eight months during distillation. The distillery bottles the classic Khukri XXX, Coronation Khukri XXX, Khukri White Rum and Khukri Spiced Rum. It is now adding this limited edition of the Cask Series. While the original rum is stored in huge wooden vats, the rum used for this more exclusive line is in smaller casks made from oak or sal, with charred insides that give the rum a smoky, smoother flavour. The Cask Series rum is indeed smokier than the classic, while the spiced rum tastes toasty and mostly of cardamom. These flavours are carefully crafted by blenders and tasters who have to pass regular palate tests.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241122131124_10b8ddca93b37b0348bf964b4f09e7fac6ef4e754cca6231368850539cd558e2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20241122131124_10b8ddca93b37b0348bf964b4f09e7fac6ef4e754cca6231368850539cd558e2" data-rendition-name="original" width="1498" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Khukri Rum"> </figure>  The packaging for the Cask Series is as special as the process. A sturdy patterned box that opens up to a black glass bottle with gold lettering, and an indication of which cask the rum is from. These are then shipped to premium customers around the world One of the reasons this is the more expensive premium line is because the casks are smaller than the vats and the blenders reject more than half of the rum in the casks when the aging period is complete. The trick for the blender is also to decide when to take the rum out of the cask. Says Lamichhane: “If we have 25 casks, only ten might match the flavour profile for a certain series.” Over the decades, The Nepal Distilleries has created and maintained a brand that feels quintessentially Nepali, and serves as Nepal’s ‘ambassador’ with exports to Germany, Korea, Belgium, Finland, the Czech Republic, besides the existing markets among Nepalis in the US, UK, Hong Kong and Australia. Its unique <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/khukri-rum-sharpens-its-act">khukri shaped bottle</a> first introduced for King Birendra’s coronation in 1975 has been a collector’s item. The bottle and rum have been a staple for Nepalis and visitors to take as gifts when they leave the country, and is used as decoration on bar tables around the world. Now, nearly 40 years later, even that bottle will soon be getting a makeover with a sharper design and sleeker handle. “Our bottle design has always been instantly recognisable,” says Lamichhane.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241122131124_b9474db3fc83c85845348dddc30c49652ee1f17229531867fa241de50849cedc.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20241122131124_b9474db3fc83c85845348dddc30c49652ee1f17229531867fa241de50849cedc" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Khukri Rum NT"> <figcaption>Christopher Armes, master blender of the Cask Series.</figcaption> </figure>  The Himalayan restaurant at The Hague, for example, has a Khukri Coronation bottle<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/from-the-himalaya-to-holland"> adorning its bar</a>. In Washington DC, Himalayan Heritage Restaurant &amp; Bar offers a ‘Nepalese Khukri Rum’ mojito with fresh mint, soda water, lime juice and sugar syrup, for $12. A distinct element of the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/business/khukri-rum-gets-award">award-winning classic Khukri rum</a> is its 'modern auburn' colour from caramel sourced from cooking sugar and blended with the raw rum. The spirits are then stored in a warehouse with floor-to-ceiling vats which are not just for storage, as the wood imparts flavour into the rum, and removes a lot of the harshness. &nbsp; On a visit this week, the bottling room was just about to begin for the day and the production line was churning out different shapes and sizes of Khukri bottles. Most of the process is automated, including screwing bottle caps, sticking labels, placing the government seal, and packaging. The only manual intervention is quality control where bottles are held against the light to check for sediment and colour.

Khukri goes premium with new rum

Turkish Airlines has introduced a new amenity kit collection designed in collaboration with French fashion house Lanvin for international business class passengers on flights more than five hours. It consists of five pieces designed for sustainability and elegance. Bags are reusable and will consist of Lanvin cosmetic products like hand and body lotions and lip balm. Eye masks and socks are made from recycled materials, earplugs are packaged in paper and the toothbrush is bamboo.

Turkish amenity kit

Nepal now generates a surplus of electricity and it is all from renewable hydropower. Nearly half the country is under forest cover. Despite meeting these decarbonisation goals, Nepal’s hydropower plants are threatened by increased risk due to climate impact.&nbsp; Till <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/when-it-rains-it-pours-ksqprbu3">28 September</a>, Nepal was <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/india-nepal-sign-power-exchange-deal">exporting just over 1,000MW</a> of electricity to power-hungry India, when flash floods and landslides unleashed by historically heavy rains damaged over 30 hydropower plants across the country, temporarily <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/power-to-the-people">slashing nearly half the power generation.</a> The 456MW Upper Tamakosi in Dolakha was the hardest hit and it will take six months and Rs2 billion to repair. This has significantly reduced exports as well as domestic generation. Two months later, Nepal has still not been unable to fully keep its export commitment, and is actually paying Rs100 million in fines to India. Thirty-seven existing and under construction projects under the Independent Power Producers' Association Nepal (IPPAN) suffered Rs2.5 billion in damage. One of them is the 22MW Bagmati project in Makwanpur which was almost completely buried in flood debris. Even before <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/60-dead-64-missing-in-nepal-floods">record-breaking rain in September</a>, 15 other hydropower projects had been damaged by floods. Last year, floods caused by heavy localised rain damaged 28 hydropower plants. World governments met in Baku for COP29 to discuss the Loss &amp; Damage Fund and the Adaptation Fund, but for countries like Nepal the commas and brackets are meaningless until they are turned into $ and €. And likelihood of adequate compensation for climate-related damage is a long way off, if ever. Nepal’s national strategy is to use its vast hydropower resource as clean energy to spur economic growth, job creation, and boost export revenue. But the plants are located in narrow Himalayan valleys prone to landslides and floods even at the best of times. Now, those <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/changing-climate-for-investment-in-nepal">risks have been heightened by weather extremes</a> due to climate breakdown. At present, Nepal generates over 3,300MW of clean hydropower, and the target is to reach 12,700MW in the next five years. Projects equivalent to 6,000MW are under construction or ready to start. The Ministry of Energy, Water Resources and Irrigation has an Energy Development Roadmap and Action Plan with the target of producing 28,500MW by 2035 by when more than half of it will be exported.&nbsp; “The climate crisis will further change the rainfall patterns making hydropower generation a big question mark in the future,” Manjeet Dhakal in Baku, who is also the Nepali adviser to the LDC Chair at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). “We are building hydropower projects on rivers without evaluating risk. This whole process needs to be reviewed and reconsidered.” The report of the National Adaptation Plan published by the Ministry of Forest and Environment last year mentions that hydropower production, transmission and distribution will be at risk from flash floods, debris flows, glacial lake outbursts and rising temperatures.&nbsp; This risk is not confined to Nepal. Average global temperatures have increased by 1.3°C compared to the pre-industrial era. Worse, the Himalayan mountains are warming faster than the global average by 0.7°C because of elevation-dependent warming. A study conducted by our own Department of Hydrology and Meteorology in 2017 showed that the average temperature in Nepal has increased in the last four decades. Scientists say this is leading to extreme weather unleashing floods and landslides on slopes already destabilized by seismicity.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241124071128_d22901a360e8958f606d80ffa21defba05a671f65afec65539dc21a6885d8345.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20241124071128_d22901a360e8958f606d80ffa21defba05a671f65afec65539dc21a6885d8345" data-rendition-name="original" width="1333" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Right climate for Nepal’s energy transition NT"> <figcaption>BIBLICAL RAIN: Photo taken during catastrophic rain on 27-28 September at the Upper Tamakosi project site that destroyed the control room, killing four staff and burying the sedimentation tanks. Photo: RSS</figcaption> </figure>  Increased atmospheric temperatures has made the monsoon rains more erratic. It does not rain when it is supposed to, and it comes down in torrents when it is not supposed to. The September floods happened two weeks after the monsoon was supposed to retreat from central Nepal. Kathmandu Valley received half its annual precipitation in just over a day. &nbsp; Winter precipitation has also failed, especially in the high mountains and trans-Himalayan valleys. Thirteen of the past 19 years experienced winter drought. This impacts on dry season flows of the rivers, reducing hydropower generation. Nepal’s power capacity normally goes down by one-fourth during winter, but the gap is widening. The Kabeli corridor could only generate 20MW November-March even though plants there have an installed capacity of 200MW. Similarly, Upper Tamakosi only produced 65MW at most against its 456MW capacity last winter. The Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) pays producers double the price for winter electricity, Rs8.40 per unit. Even though winter operation is highly profitable the rivers run low and NEA has to import from India to meet the winter demand. “This is not just a weather problem but a serious challenge also for the country's energy future, good climate-friendly design should be combined with policy and effective implementation,” says Subarna Das Shrestha, a hydropower investor and CEO of Sanima Mai Hydropower. “Insurance premiums have gone up as well, and settlement for damage is not timely.” <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/climate-risk-to-hydropower-investment">Hydropower investment</a> at one time was regarded as having a high rate of return. Now, some investors have become <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-smarter-himalayan-infrastructure">wary of the risks involved</a>. Says IPPAN’s Uttam Blon Lama: “Hydropower projects expected to give stable returns are now looking risky. Not only is climate adaptation design and planning expensive, but future repair and maintenance costs will also skyrocket.” Nepal has only one storage type dam <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/rivers-be-dammed">in Kulekhani</a> and another one is being built in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/missing-pieces-of-the-hydropower-jigsaw">Tanahu</a>, but they are also at risk. In September, the sluice gates of Kulekhani Dam had to be opened causing loss of life and destruction downstream. Nepal has to learn lessons from the deadly collapse of the $1 billion <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/sikkim-flood-is-warning-to-nepal">Chungthang Dam in Sikkim</a> in October 2023 cause by a glacial lake burst. Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in Nepal pose potentially catastrophic risk to infrastructure. The <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lives-on-the-line-in-the-himalaya">Thame flood in August</a> was a relatively minor debris flow that damaged half of this village in the Everest region when <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/climate-breakdown-linked-to-thame-flood">two glacial lakes at 4,760m burst</a>. Luckily there was no loss of life. Of the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lives-on-the-line-in-the-himalaya">47 high-risk glacial lakes</a> in the eastern Nepal Himalaya, 21 are in Nepal and the rest are in rivers in China that are tributaries of the Arun and Bhote Kosi where Nepal has major hydropower plants under construction, or planned.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241123021128_b596cd8520c57a6c5476031e7a3ea6510f26b464c4d5351d2bc10f6f7d6b70d8.jpg" data-media-id="editor_14" data-image-id="20241123021128_b596cd8520c57a6c5476031e7a3ea6510f26b464c4d5351d2bc10f6f7d6b70d8" data-rendition-name="original" width="871" height="648" loading="lazy" alt="Page 10-11 map #1236 NT"> </figure>  Global temperature rise is accelerating the melting of Himalayan snow and ice, increasing the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/living-below-nepal-s-melting-mountains">number and size of glacial lakes</a> so that we do not even have names for them. Imja Tso did not even exist in the old trekking maps until 25 years ago, but is now a 2km long lake. “Natural moraine dams in the mountains are weak, and the projects downstream can face major destruction if they burst, and the risk will only increase in future,” warns climatologist Arun Bhakta Shrestha at the <a href="https://www.icimod.org/">International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD)</a>. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/terrifying-assessment-of-a-himalayan-melting">An ICIMOD assessment in 2019</a> projected that if present heating trends continue, as they probably will, the Himalaya will lose two-thirds of our glaciers by the end of this century. “Generally speaking, hydropower developers hand over the project to the government after 30 years but by that time given the climate risks, they may not be an asset anymore,” says Manjeet Dhakal. Indeed, the cascade of expensive projects India is building on the Arun River are supposed to be handed back to Nepal in 25 years, but there is a big ‘if’ about whether they will survive that long. &nbsp;&nbsp; Planning of hydropower projects is still based on historical hydrological data, and does not take into account future temperature rise and its consequences. Investors, on the other hand, say that planning hydropower projects with climate components would make them even more expensive.&nbsp; “It’s not that we aren’t preparing for climate risk, we design keeping in mind the once-in-100-year flood,” says Blon of IPPAN. “But if we start designing based on once in 1,000 years flood, the cost would be so high that we won’t be able to build them at all.” Nonetheless, Subarna Das Shrestha of Sanima Mai Hydropower says that there is no option but to go for climate smart infrastructure despite the higher cost. Sanima Mai's powerhouse, for example, is completely underground. The strategy could also be to spread the risk by building less expensive plants located on rivers all over the country. Nepal is also diversifying away from its sole reliance on hydroelectricity, which at present supplies 92% of the power in the grid. Most of the rest comes from solar plants, where the total potential has not even been scratched. &nbsp; This article is brought to you by <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/" target="_blank">Nepali Times</a>, in collaboration with <a href="https://inpsjapan.com/en/" target="_blank">INPS Japan</a> and <a href="https://sgi-peace.org/" target="_blank">Soka Gakkai International</a>, in consultative status with UN ECOSOC.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240630110640_30c3782f9c09219bf1c249b51483a3cfb7a53a06d117d2aebd23ca7080d12758.jpg" data-media-id="editor_21" data-image-id="20240630110640_30c3782f9c09219bf1c249b51483a3cfb7a53a06d117d2aebd23ca7080d12758" data-rendition-name="original" width="680" height="103" loading="lazy" alt="SDG logo"> </figure>  &nbsp;