<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111410114/637205059c7e80680e0b2893jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="830" height="609"/>Besides defending its title as the most corrupted country in South Asia, Nepal has belatedly also been recognised in the Guinness Book as having the highest per capita number of Communist parties this side of the Sewage Canal.However, the 50 shades of red parties has the unintended side-effect that there isn’t an electronic voter machine that has been invented yet that has enough buttons to be of any use here in local, provincial and federal elections this year. Additionally, since every party worth its salt needs a symbol, the Erection Commission has run out of them.Popular symbols like sun, moon, tree, hammers and sickles have all been taken on a first-come-first-served basis. Which means we will have to fall back on the diversity of Nepal’s flora and fauna. The cow and goat are already reserved, so we can offer scorpion, vulture, porcupine, and (the Donkey is pleased to announce) a jack ass to parties that do not yet have symbols.At the rate parties are splitting, even this will not suffice. We need symbols that more accurately reflect the ethos of the parties in question. For instance, a hand grenade is an apt symbol for ex-guerrillas who want voters to remember the terror. Voters would also make an immediate connection between certain parties and the handcuff symbol.Some of these symbols will be so coveted that the Election Commission may have to auction them off, have a lottery, or simply do an underhand deal.The Family Party could be given the condom as an election symbol to set it apart from others, and also simultaneously spread awareness among the electorate about contraception.Now that Nepal has declared itself open-defecation free, the forthcoming election could be the perfect opportunity to de-stigmatise the squat latrine and assist in the gobarment’s campaign of Flush Toilets for All by 2025.The real problem about elections is that no one gives a Rat’s Ass (in a manner of speaking) about them. The question on everyone’s mind is what happens if local elections can’t be held in April? Luckily, the High and Mighty Political Mechanism already has a cunning plan. But it’s top secret.

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New election symbols

<img width="1000" height="1336" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111410114/637204d59c7e80680e0b2883jpeg.jpg" alt=""/>After <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-coalition-dilly-dallying-on-polls/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">hemming and hawing about holding local elections</a>, top leaders of the five-party alliance that met on Tuesday finally made some headway. 
The good news is that they said they were committed to holding the local polls “on time”. The bad news is that the parties were even thinking of postponing polls to suit their electoral prospects, even though that is entirely the purview of the Election Commission. 
And who knows what they mean by “on time”? Nepali time is elastic.  
The ‘high level political mechanism’ is an uber-government prone to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/political-expediency-trumps-nepal-constitution/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">bending the Constitution</a> whichever way it suits them. 
However, on elections, mechanism members are not united. Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba’s Nepali Congress wants to hold local polls as scheduled on 27 April, and this puts him closer to the opposition UML’s stand. 
The JSP also wants the local polls in April, but the Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoist Centre and Madhav Kumar Nepal of the Unified Socialists being from fragments of larger parties, want more time to prepare for elections. And the pandemic has been the perfect pretext to argue for postponing it. 
The other argument they are using is that elections are costly, and why not have all three tiers of elections in November? 
There are differing provisions for local elections in Nepal’s Constitution and election laws. While Article 225 of the Constitution stipulates new local leaders be elected within six months after the terms of the current leaders expire, Nepal’s Local Level Election Act 2017 states that elections be held two months before the terms of the current representatives end. 
Coalition leaders are said to be exploring the possibility of passing an ordinance to amend the local election law so that they can hold local elections when they see fit — which means later in the year.
That provisions for elections are inconsistent, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/political-expediency-trumps-nepal-constitution/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">subject to amendments at </a>the convenience of political leaders, and that the Election Commission is unable to make an independent decision is emblematic of a failing state.
It shows just how <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/Analysis/how-decentralised-is-federalism,776" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">centralised Nepal’s power structure is</a>,  and how blatant political interference in Constitutional bodies like the Election Commission has become.  
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/battle-lines-drawn-for-nepal-elections/" style="font-weight: 600;">Battle lines drawn for Nepal elections</a>, Nepali Times
The differing positions within the governing coalition on proposed election dates have further exposed the volatile dynamics within the five-party coalition. 
As it is, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/mcc-row-rocks-nepals-ruling-coalition/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">governing coalition is already on thin ice </a>due to differences over the US-supported MCC project, as well as over the Nepali Congress being disinclined to form an electoral alliance with coalition partners. Differences over MCC ratification by Parliament already threatens to split the coalition of which some members are said to be beholden to Chinese pressure.
But there are other more pressing matters. Parliament has not been able to sit and pass pending bills due to the UML not letting it function because of K P Oli’s grudge against Speaker Agni Sapkota over his refusal to expel former party members including Madhav Kumar Nepal.  
The five-year terms of Nepal’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-politicians-take-up-farming/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">locally elected representatives</a>, which began on 20 May 2017 are set to end on 19 May. Not holding these elections on time will undermine local governance because wards and municipalities will be left leaderless, delegitimising the country’s still fragile federal system. 
Some of the smaller parties are already campaigning against federalism, and a gridlock in local elections could bolster their argument that the system is too <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/is-democracy-too-expensive-for-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">costly</a> and not suitable for Nepal. 
As the highly transmissible<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/3rd-wave-in-2-years/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> Omicron strain</a> spreads across the country and overwhelms Nepal’s limited healthcare infrastructure, Nepal’s villages and rural communities will need steady leadership more than ever. 
The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/vaccines-variants-and-a-third-wave/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">third wave has hit Nepal </a>as the country enters the third year of the pandemic. During that time, power struggles at the top have largely paralysed the federal government’s response to the crisis.
However, at the local level many elected representatives have been leading from the frontlines to help constituents. This newspaper reported about mayors and ward chairs in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/women-leaders-set-example-for-rest-of-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nawalpur</a> and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-local-governments-lead-from-the-front/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Khotang</a> districts driving the sick to hospitals during the second wave. They set up local quarantine and isolation centres, and did not wait for Kathmandu to respond.
One of Nepal’s development success stories in the past 40 years was that local elections have ensured accountability and service delivery. The 2017 local polls were the first in 20 years, and not having elected local leaders cost the country two decades in lost development.
National leaders treating local elections as if it is just another power play will be a misdeed against the Nepali people.
Shristi Karki
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-rudderless-political-leadership/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal’s rudderless political leadership</a>, Santa Gaha Magar

Shristi Karki

Polls in the time of pandemic

<figure><img width="960" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111410114/637204a99c7e80680e0b2874jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Nepal's coalition leaders meet at the Prime Minister's residence in Baluwatar on Tuesday. Photo: RSS</figcaption></figure>Nepal’s ruling political parties are facing growing calls from civil society, constitutional experts and the public to announce dates for local elections which need to be held by April this year. However some members of the governing coalition, fearing lack of preparation and loss at the polls, are using various pretexts to try to postpone elections. A meeting of top leaders of the coalition partners on Tuesday is trying to forge a common position.Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba’s Nepali Congress wants local polls to be held on schedule, and elections to the federal parliament later this year or early 2023. While the opposition UML agrees with this view, coalition partners Maoist Centre and the Unified Socialists want the local elections postponed till November and held together with voting for the other two tiers.They cite the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/3rd-wave-in-2-years/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Omicron surge</a>,  the huge costs of holding separate elections at a time when the economy is in trouble, as well as saving the public from too many elections this year.The Election Commission has warned the government that it needs to decide on the date by the end of this week if polls are to be held on 27 April.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/is-democracy-too-expensive-for-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Is democracy too expensive for Nepal</a>, Laxmi BasnetBut pressure on the government to hold elections as mandated by the Constitution is growing. On Monday, umbrella organisations representing Nepal’s local elected bodies joined the call to conduct local elections.The National Association of Rural Municipalities in Nepal, Municipal Association of Nepal and Federation of District Coordinating Committees issued a joint press release to pressure the governing parties and the Election Commission to begin the process for local polls by May. ‘In a system where provincial and federal governments do not govern local political institutions, Nepal’s Constitution has not envisioned even a single day without locally elected leaders,’ the statement co-signed by the chairs of the three organisations reads. ‘We hope that the elections are held in a timely manner, and that local bodies do not go without elected representatives even for a day.' The Election Commission has recommended that elections be held on 27 April across the country in a single phase, or on 27 April and 5 May in two phases.The five-year terms of Nepal’s locally elected representatives, which began on 20 May 2017, will officially end on 19 May 2022. Nepal’s Constitution requires that  local elections be held within six months of the end of the current officials’ terms. Before that, Nepal is set to elect 20 members to the National Assembly on 26 January to replace those  retiring from the Upper House following the end of their four-year terms.Minister for Health and Population Birodh Khatiwada declared on Monday that dates for local elections will be decided within this week.Speaking at a press conference in Biratnagar on Monday, Khatiwada said: "The five-party alliance is committed to holding the local elections.” Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/battle-lines-drawn-for-nepal-elections/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Battle lines drawn for Nepal elections</a>, EditorialIf the elections take place on the recommended dates, Nepal will go into the election cycle at a time when the third phase of Covid-19 infections is spreading across the country. On Monday, Nepal reported 5,747 positive cases out of 14,014 RT-PCR tests and 987 positive cases out of 3,451 antigen tests. Out of the total 6,734 positive cases, 3,939 are from the Kathmandu Valley, which has a significant concentration of registered voters in the country.Meanwhile, even as Nepal’s rightwing political parties capitalise on the growing debate about scrapping federalism and secularism from the Constitition, India’s state-level elections have reignited geopolitical tensions between the two countries once again. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi sparked outrage in Nepal after  remarks during an election rally in India’s Uttarakhand state, during which he spoke about plans to extend a road to the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/politics-and-history-of-nepals-kalapani-claim/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">disputed region </a>of Lipulekh. Some of India’s state-influenced tv channels have since been labelling Nepal as ‘pro-China’.While India-bashing is a popular past-time during elections in Nepal when parties join the nationalism bandwagon, it seems that Nepal-bashing has now also become a sport in Indian elections. Five Indian states will be holding elections in January-February, in votes that will determine the fate of Modi’s BJP government ahead of general elections in 2024. How the BJP fares in these elections will broadly influence the federalism and secularism debate in Nepal.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/clean-up-elections-to-clean-up-politics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> Clean up elections to clean up politics</a>, Shristi Karki

Nepal coalition dilly-dallying on polls

<figure><img width="2250" height="3149" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114091156/637203509c7e80680e0b2800jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Illustration: SWORUP NHASIJU</figcaption></figure>On 26 January, Nepal will elect 20 members to the National Assembly to replace those  retiring from the Upper House following the end of their four-year terms, marking the beginning of the second series of elections under the federal system. Leaders of the governing five-party coalition have already divided up the 19 electable seats amongst themselves, and appointed their nominees – making it certain they will win. The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/tis-the-season-of-conventions-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">general conventions </a>of three of Nepal’s biggest and most influential parties in the last months, which were mini elections unto themselves, marked the beginning of campaigning for <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/all-eyes-on-2023/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">local and federal elections</a> in the coming year. All major parties including the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepali-congress-party-time/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepali Congress</a> (MC), <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/post-convention-uml-eyes-set-on-elections/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">UML</a> and the Maoist Centre (MC) retained their gerontocracies.Preparations are now underway for local elections, which the Election Commission has recommended should be held on 27 April across the country. Nepal conducted its first legislative assembly elections as a multiparty system in 1959. Since then, there have been 10 elections for the National Legislature, with the 2017 general elections being the first of its kind after the country ushered in federalism. The year also marked the first time sub-national elections were held in 20 years.There were 14.2 million ballots cast during local elections in May 2017. However, the number jumped to 15.4 million in provincial and parliamentary elections in November the same year. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/all-eyes-on-2023/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">All eyes on 2023</a>, Mukesh PokharelIn March 2021, the Election Commission stopped voter registration and published an updated list of 16.2 million voters after former Prime Minister <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/oli-sweeps-uml-party-polls/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">K P Oli</a> dissolved Parliament and announced early elections. The registration process resumed after the Supreme Court reinstated the house in July.And right after the Election Commission announced the National Assembly polls in November, it also announced the beginning of a month-long special voter registration program during which an additional 600,000 Nepalis registered.  As elections approach, Nepal’s political discourse is already dominated by <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/volatile-mix-of-politics-and-religion/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">parties stoking nationalistic and religious fervour</a>.  This has made for surprising political partnerships, with the Hindu-right and leadership from self-proclaimed ‘alternative’ parties uniting in their rejection of federalism, secularism and even republicanism.And if their <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/unconventional-party-conventions/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">general conventions </a> were any indication, the parties will use this rhetoric to vilify opponents and gain voters at the expense of issues most pertinent to the people, such as education, migration, healthcare, the economy and the pandemic. <img width="960" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114091156/637203539c7e80680e0b2801jpeg.jpg" alt="">In an ideal democracy, elections force public officials to be accountable. Candidates are elected based on promise of performance. But in Nepal, the polling system itself lacks transparency -- right from election funding. But electoral reform measures like re-demarcation of constituencies based on population, polling systems and voting rights of diaspora Nepalis who cannot cast votes in person, remain neglected.There has been much back and forth about the demarcation of election constituencies. While Article 286 (5) of Nepal’s Constitution states that the delineation should be done on the basis of population and geography, Madhes-based activists have pressed for constituencies to be divided on the basis of the population only.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/battle-lines-drawn-for-nepal-elections/">Battle lines drawn for Nepal elections</a>, EditorialThe government formed a five-member Constituency Delimitation Commission to look into possible rearrangement of constituencies for the federal and provincial elections in July 2017. The commission demarcated constituencies by giving 90% weightage to population size and 10% to geography.Govind Subedi, a professor of population studies at Tribhuvan University, has argued that recent practices have gone in the ‘wrong direction’. He writes in his book Political Demography of Nepal: 'The uneven distribution of representatives … is likely to increase if we adopt a population-size only-method [of delineation] … it can have a far-reaching implication in the geo-polity of Nepal.'Subedi, who was an adviser to the Commission, continues: ‘It is more likely that the sparsely populated districts in provinces which lie in the western mountains and the far western region will feel regional imbalances in sharing of political power in the national polity, which in turn may lead to provincial conflicts in the years to come.’Furthermore, Nepal’s election laws are lax enough that the wealthiest in the country who previously bankrolled parties in exchange for personal, professional and policy favours have<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/purchasing-power/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> entered politics themselves</a>. The number of businessmen and contractors elected into leadership in 2017 proves that money, not political competency, decides who is ultimately elected to lead. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/is-democracy-too-expensive-for-nepal/">Is democracy too expensive for Nepal?</a>, Laxmi BasnetIndeed, the First Past the Post (FPTP) system has become a hotbed for corruption by businessmen, thus undermining democracy, say election experts. Prominent leaders from across the political aisle, particularly women elected into office like Minister for Women, Children and Senior Citizens Uma Regmi, have spoken in support of an overhaul of Nepal’s current election system into a fully proportional electoral system after having experienced firsthand how the current system <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-business-of-politics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">benefits the rich, powerful and the establishment</a>, while they are burdened with election debt long after they have left office.Former Acting Chief Commissioner of the Election Commission Dolakh Bahadur Gurung says that the reform should be such that MPs are not allowed to become ministers, and term limits must be set so that the same people do not hold on to their seats until they are 90 years old. ‘Our Constitution has been amended a fair number of times,’ wrote Gurung in October, ‘it is not impossible to reform our electoral system.’Meanwhile, the debate about mailed ballots and absentee voting has gained much traction among the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/the-year-of-migrant-workers/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepali diaspora</a> in recent years. An estimated 4 million Nepalis work, study and live in India, the Gulf, Malaysia, Japan, Korea, Europe and North America.The Supreme Court issued a directive to facilitate voting for Nepali diaspora across the world in March 2018. However, successive governments have shown no interest in ensuring voting rights for millions of eligible voters living overseas.And even as the government has begun to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/its-in-the-mail/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">expand the reach of its archaic postal service</a> by delivering items like passports to people’s homes, it has not considered postal voting to keep the service relevant. The political establishment seems to fear that Nepalis in the Gulf and Malaysia are fed up with the government back home, and allowing them to vote by mail will be predominantly anti-incumbent.  The Sweden-based International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA) says 151 of 216 countries around the world allow voters living abroad to cast ballots in some capacity. According to the Election Integrity Project, 40 countries used postal ballots in their most recent national election before the Covid outbreak.Nilkantha Uprety, the former Chief Election Commissioner, believes there are two options to eliminate election irregularities. Firstly, there must be an improvement from within parties and candidates such that undemocratic practices are turned into fair competition during elections.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-business-of-politics-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The business of politics in Nepal</a>, Shekhar Kharel‘But since it is not easy to achieve that, the second option is to radically change our current electoral system, and it would be unwise to delay in choosing which of the two options is more convenient and effective,’ he warned in a<a href="https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/127010" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> recent op-ed</a> in Himal magazine.Uprety also noted that in the end, the electoral system does not matter as much as the people involved in the elections.‘Elections can be free and fair regardless of the electoral system if political parties are democratic, candidates are committed, and there is a guarantee of good governance,’ he wrote. ‘Ultimately, elections can only be successful if the majority of voters make informed choices about the parties and candidates instead of only being interested in when and where to show up to vote.’ Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-rudderless-political-leadership/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal’s rudderless political leadership</a>, Santa Gaha Magar

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Clean up elections to clean up politics

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111152/636cd83b9c7e80680e092e30gif.gif" alt="" width="1000" height="1000"/><figcaption>Illustration: DIWAKAR CHETTRI</figcaption></figure>Nepalis are wondering who won and who lost after the Supreme Court on 7 March effectively ruled that the Nepal Communist Party revert to its constituent elements: the UML and Maoist Centre. Even the leaders of the parties are confused.Within 24 hours of the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-supreme-court-restores-house/">court decision</a>, a party that was cleft into two factions suddenly went back to its status three years ago. Leaders who were <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/no-winners-in-latest-nepal-political-twist/">caught on</a> the wrong side had to slink back to their mother party.Despite judicial interventions to scrap the NCP on Sunday, and to reinstate the House on 23 February, Nepali politics looks as confused as ever. To be sure, Prime Minister Oli suffered a setback with the House restitution, but he got a respite with the party re-split.His erstwhile UML comrades Madhav Kumar Nepal and Jhalnath Khanal, who had defected to the Pushpa Kamal Dahal camp, have been forced to return to the fold.The biggest relief must be felt by Chief Election Commissioner Dinesh Thapaliya, who had been undecided for over a month on whether the Oli or the Dahal faction would get the NCP party name and election symbol. He sprang into action after Sunday’s court verdict and scrapped the NCP altogether.Even Dahal himself must be feeling less stressed now. The bruising <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/muscle-vs-muscle-in-nepal/">political battles</a> with an aggressive Oli was taking its toll, but he is now in sole control of his own independent party. It is like he has moved from a big house of an abusive landlord to his own small shed.The biggest, and sorest, losers must be Oli’s former UML comrades and former prime ministers Nepal, Khanal, and the firebrand MP from Achham, Bhim Rawal. The bad blood between them and Oli will surely affect the internal dynamics of the re-instituted UML.The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-takes-1-step-forward-2-steps-back/">7 March decision</a> transformed Oli from a majority prime minister to a coalition leader. It is intriguing that even though the Maoist Centre has sent feelers to the Nepali Congress (NC) and the Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP) to form a coalition, it has not withdrawn its pre-unification support for the UML.Oli himself just needs to win the support of the JSP to remain prime minister, while Dahal will need both the NC and JSP. Dahal is hedging his bets: he does not want to lose a no-confidence vote since he cannot push another one for a year, and Oli may once more suddenly announce early elections.The wily Oli is already looking at the option of splitting the JSP vote to garner the number needed to stay on as prime minister. With 121 MPs in the House, Oli just needs 17 more votes to cobble a coalition, which he can get even if the rest of the JSP’s anti-Oli leaders are against joining. He can do that by agreeing to the JSP demand to free Resham Chaudhari, who is in detention for the Tikapur massacre of policemen in 2015.The key player in the formation of the next government will be the JSP and not the NC or the Maoist Centre. In fact, the JSP can even form a government with the NC and the Maoists. Within the UML, the Nepal-Khanal camp do not have the numbers any more to challenge Oli till the next party convention.Despite the involvement of the three organs of the state – the judiciary, the executive and the legislative – Nepal’s politics is more tangled than ever. When even a two-thirds majority government could not deliver on stability in the past three years, it would be foolish to expect a fragile coalition to do so now.Which is why Oli may have been right: the best option may be <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepalis-outraged-by-pm-oli-move/">fresh polls</a>. If it is overseen by an all-party election government, it could deliver a fresh mandate and restore a derailed polity.

A crucible of fragile coalitions

<img width="640" height="426" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011110/636ccc849c7e80680e08bc29jpeg.jpg" alt=""/>The Nepal Communist Party (NCP) has by now squandered the overwhelming mandate it got in the 2017 elections to govern for five years, and its future now rests on an impending decision by the Supreme Court.While the verdict could go either way, what is certain is that one of the two NCP factions is going to lose out.  Whether it will be the establishment faction led by Prime Minister K P Oli or the breakaway group headed by Pushpa Kamal Dahal, will be decided in the upcoming weeks. Oli’s group is in  government and says it is preparing for snap elections in April-May, while Dahal’s supporters are in the streets demanding a reinstatement of the Lower House.Both are trying to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/olis-tit-for-tat-show-of-force/">demonstrate their popular support</a> by renting <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/muscle-vs-muscle-in-nepal/">bigger and bigger crowds</a>, and thus influence the Supreme Court, and the Elections Commission which has to decide which faction gets the party’s Sun symbol and name. Both sides are sanguine that the Supreme Court and the Elections Commission will rule in their favour. Nepal’s current political crisis is not a result of any great ideological disagreement, but a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/oli-vs-dahal-1-upmanship/">personal power struggle</a> between Oli and Dahal after NCP unity. This may be why rallies by both Oli and Dahal have been packed with cadre and people bused in from the districts, and without much spontaneous popular participation so far.Whichever way the Supreme Court verdict goes, Nepal’s politics will be in turmoil as the power centres and politicians jockey for supremacy, even as regional geopolitics influence the outcome. Beijing has been openly lobbying against an NCP split, while the Indo-American alliance would like to see Nepal’s communists divided and weakened.“Even if the House is reinstated, a new struggle for supremacy will begin within the party to form an election government,” predicts political commentator Shyam Shrestha. “It will not be as easy as before when the NCP had a two-thirds majority, and the permutations and combinations of coalition-building will be wide open.”If the House is restored, Shrestha sees the Dahal faction forming a government in coalition with the Nepali Congress and Janata Samajbadi Party Nepal. But if the Court rules in favour of the dissolution, he sees instability and chaos.Foreign Minister Pradeep Gyawali admits that there is some uncertainty because of the wait for the Supreme Court decision. He says, “But once it rules in favour of dissolution, that will steer the country’s mood towards elections. The conditions are right for polls, the Nepali Congress, Janata Samajbadi Party and smaller parties are all ready, there are no major security issues, and the Election Commission is getting ready. So whoever gets a majority will govern the country. The alternative will be a return to unstable coalition politics of the past.” <img width="1371" height="914" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011110/636ccc889c7e80680e08bc2ajpeg.jpg" alt="">However, the political futures of Oli and Dahal will also rest on the Supreme Court’s decision on the 13 writ petitions that are currently being heard. Oli’s ambitions will be derailed if the House is reinstated, while Dahal and his supporters will suffer a setback if it is not. So much rests on the Court’s decision that it has become a prestige issue for both sides, which could be why Dahal has been using threatening language towards the Election Commission and the Supreme Court, hinting that it is being influenced by Baluwatar.Some in the NCP see the possibility of the elections actually bringing the two factions of the NCP closer, but Central Committee member Beduram Bhusal disagrees. “There is just too much bad blood. For now, I see zero percentage possibility of reunification.”In case the House is restored, the choice for the Dahal faction is to go for election or agitation. However, it may not be so easy for Dahal and his supporters to “unleash a hurricane” as he has threatened.Bhusal, however, says his party has not planned for an elections scenario. “Even if the house is not restored, there will not be any elections. Why plan for something that will not happen?” says the Dahal loyalist.For Oli, a Court decision to restore the House is equally fraught. He will either have to resign, or face a no confidence vote in Parliament.

A Kathmandu Spring

India and Pakistan are twins separated at birth. Tensions between them have been at a hair trigger ever since independence and has erupted into full scale conflict at least four times in the past 80 years.
The 22 April terrorist attack in Kashmir that killed 25 Indian tourists and a Nepali citizen, threatens to escalate tension between the two nuclear-armed nations. India has squarely blamed Pakistan for the attacks, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has given his military “operational freedom” to respond. Pakistan has said it has credible intelligence of an Indian military strike and its officials have promised a “full spectrum” response — a code for a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/thinking-the-thinkable">nuclear retaliation</a>.
For Nepal, the killing of its national in the Pahalgam attack comes as another stark reminder that in conflicts from Afghanistan to Iraq, from <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/how-to-agree-an-armistice-in-ukraine">Ukraine</a> to Israel, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/10-nepalis-from-one-town-fighting-in-ukraine">Nepalis are getting caught in the crossfire</a>. The last time full-scale fighting broke out between <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/peacemongers-at-india-pakistan-border">India and Pakistan</a> on Kargil in 1999, at least 22<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/india-s-trial-by-fire-for-soldiers-from-nepal?%27%5C%22="> Nepalis fighting for the Indian Army</a> were killed in action.
Three of Nepal’s immediate neighbours (China, India, Pakistan) have nuclear weapons, and they do not have good relations. With China supplying weapons, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/war-and-warming">missile technology</a> and other support to Pakistan, this triangular friction could set off a regional conflagration.&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00573-0" target="_blank">Research at Rutgers University</a> has calculated that even a week-long tactical nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan would throw up so much smoke and debris into the atmosphere that it would block out the sun for years, and lead to a collapse of the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/grow-nourish-sustain-together-world-food-day">global food system</a>. This does not take into account the radioactive fallout that prevailing winds would blow up to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lives-on-the-line-in-the-himalaya">the Himalaya</a>, contaminating glaciers that are the sources of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/saving-what-is-left-of-himalayan-rivers">Asia’s main rivers</a>.
The impact of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/climate-breakdown-linked-to-thame-flood">climate breakdown </a>on High Asia was already ringing alarm bells about its <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/himalayan-icecap-melting-faster-than-thought">shrinking ice cap</a> reducing the dry season flow of water downstream. Water was going to be the next strategic commodity, geopolitical experts warned, and the next wars in Asia would be over water.
That water war is already happening. India retaliated to the Kashmir attack by suspending the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/24/world/asia/india-pakistan-indus-waters-treaty.html" target="_blank">Indus Waters Treaty</a> of 1960 mediated by the World Bank that has withstood at least three wars between India and Pakistan. The treaty gives India control over the three eastern tributaries of the Indus (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beas_River" target="_blank">Beas</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ravi_River" target="_blank">Ravi</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sutlej" target="_blank">Sutlej</a>), while Pakistan got water from the Indus and two of its western tributaries (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indus_River" target="_blank">Indus</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chenab_River" target="_blank">Chenab</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jhelum_River" target="_blank">Jhelum</a>.
Pakistan was assured of 70% of the annual flow, and India could use a reasonable amount of water for<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=15231"> irrigation and hydropower</a>. &nbsp;Within days of its threat, India stopped water flowing down to Pakistan from the Chenab river and is reportedly preparing to do the same on the Jhelum.
The sabre-rattling has reached a crescendo. Besides threats and counter-threats there are also symbolic drills, with the Indian Air Force practicing landing on an expressway in Uttar Pradesh by its Rafale, Su-30 and Jaguar fighter jets to demonstrate ‘operational readiness’. In response Pakistan test-fired its Abdali ballistic missile that can carry a nuclear warhead and has a range of 450km.&nbsp;
The danger is that with ultra-nationalist rhetoric and the beating the war drums by both sides, India’s government and Pakistan’s military may have to ‘do something’ to appease domestic public opinion. But any tactical strike, an artillery exchange, or territorial incursion could quickly escalate out of control.
Expecting an Indian retaliation for the Pahalgam killings, Pakistan is using<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/interfaith-collaboration-for-nuclear-disarmament"> nuclear deterrence </a>and warning of “catastrophic consequences”. The two neighbours came close to a nuclear exchange in 2019 after an attack on the Indian military in Kashmir, and prompt international intervention led by the United States cooled tensions.&nbsp;
This time, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/trump-shock-wave-hits-nepal">Trump administration</a> is too distracted and not as engaged. Pakistan has denied it was responsible for the terrorist attack and called on Washington to stop a possible Indian retaliation. India and Pakistan have stopped overflights by each other’s airlines, and some international carriers have even stopped flying over Pakistan fearing an air war.
Washington, Beijing, the UN and the EU have all urged restraint. Iran, which has good relations with both India and Pakistan has sent its foreign minister to urge both countries not to go into a tit-for-tat war. Iran has its own nuclear flashpoint to worry about with tensions in Israel, &nbsp;Yemen and Syria.
India and Pakistan both share similar problems of joblessness, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/why-nepal-s-poverty-rate-is-stuck">poverty </a>and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/climate-change-new-threat-to-nepal-s-rhinos">environmental threats</a>. Neither side needs the threat of a senseless war, and we in the neighbourhood do not need it either.&nbsp;
Kunda Dixit
This Editorial is brought to you by <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/" target="_blank">Nepali Times</a>, in collaboration with <a href="https://inpsjapan.com/en/" target="_blank">INPS Japan</a> and <a href="https://sgi-peace.org/" target="_blank">Soka Gakkai International</a>, in consultative status with UN ECOSOC.

Nukes in the neighbourhood

The streets of Patan are alive this month with lavender jacaranda trees under rain-washed skies as <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/the-red-god-rises-again-in-patan">the chariot of Rato Matsyendranath</a> is pulled across town. This is the festival of the rain god, and inevitably the heavens opened up and pre-monsoon showers pelted the chariot as it started being pulled in Pulchok last week. Thousands of devotees, onlookers and the chariot procession organisers thronged the streets on the first day last week. The rhythmic cymbals and drums exuded a vibrant energy as the enormous four wheels turned and the chariot lurched.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025051007050_81df97744db16f732a419dc1f1579d235ce3df37642b078f50b83bd4bd026688.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2025051007050_81df97744db16f732a419dc1f1579d235ce3df37642b078f50b83bd4bd026688" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1503" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  The<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/Red-rain-god,3141"> red rain god</a> has Hindu and Buddhist antecedents, alternatively called Bungadya and<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/kathmandu-s-gravity-defying-chariot-festival"> Karunamaya</a> — reflecting Kathmandu Valley’s syncretic mixture of the two religions.&nbsp; “Bungadya is a profoundly <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/12-full-opinion/marketing-the-intangible">intangible form of heritage</a>,” explains heritage expert Monalisa Maharjan. “It embodies traditional knowledge,<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/reviving-nepal-s-craft"> artisanal skills passed down through generations</a>. Local communities and specific families have specified roles in being custodians of the heritage, ensuring their survival over the centuries.” There are many legends and stories about this annual tradition. Lichhavi king Narendra Dev is supposed to have brought Rato Matsyendranath from Assam to Kathmandu Valley to convince Guru Gorakhnath to lift a spell that created a two-year drought in Kathmandu.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250510050520_347a9a398f8a9abc4a7fb4e2774fde8264cccbdce8bdab23851ab3f0e73c3e8a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20250510050520_347a9a398f8a9abc4a7fb4e2774fde8264cccbdce8bdab23851ab3f0e73c3e8a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1503" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  Matsyendranath was Gorakhnath’s mentor, and upon seeing him, the serpents were released, unleashing the rains. The chariot festival honours the return of this life-giving rain. The deity is seen as an icon for thriving agriculture, t<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon">he arrival of monsoon</a> showers, and the welfare of the community. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-reign-of-the-god-of-rain">The reign of the god of rain</a>, Vidhu Prakash Kayastha Till this day, the Rato Matsyendranath festival is no ordinary celebration. Patan does not sleep for a month as the chariot is pulled through various neighbourhoods. It unfolds at a state level with the president (formerly the king) attending the climax of the Bhoto Jatra in Jawalakhel later this month.&nbsp; The intergenerational transmission of tradition is unique in the world, and the reason the festival is one of the most vibrant cultural expressions that thrives despite inroads of modernity. The other unique aspect is that it is a transnational festival, binding Patan with Guwahati in the Indian state of Assam.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025051005058_8bc685ada13045d863b28e3eed91c931da2b510714586af6fd7eb5d1e298a24a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="2025051005058_8bc685ada13045d863b28e3eed91c931da2b510714586af6fd7eb5d1e298a24a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1503" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  “Unlike Nepal, where the deity commands grandeur and devotion, many in Assam are unaware of Rato Matsyendranath,” says Khagen Sharma of Gauhati University, which convened <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-assam-connection-revived">a symposium in February in Guwahati on the rain god</a>. Attending was a delegation led by Lalitpur Mayor Chiribabu Maharjan, organisers of the festival, and builders of the chariot. After the symposium, a committee was formed to explore and revive the tradition in Assam as well. Although the team had planned to visit Nepal this month, logistical challenges delayed the trip. Still, there are plans to build a Guru Matsyendranath statue in Assam to reestablish regular worship practices in the Guwahati shrine.&nbsp; The vines used to build the chariot in Patan are sourced from the jungles of Assam. But Sharma notes that in recent years unclear regulations have blocked the official import of the vines, although they are still brought to Nepal informally. The <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/makers-of-machhindranath,2204">chariot making</a> has also had a taste of modernisation in recent times. In the past, even a single nail or piece of steel was avoided. But over time, the wooden structure, particularly the shaft between the wheels, has been replaced with bronze. When that too proved unstable, metal clamps were introduced, which have become a pragmatic compromise.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250510050524_b2a819a5791612f14c81d30fc393dbd3f99f0c64b90a9110e8b0855d944bfa93.jpg" data-media-id="editor_12" data-image-id="20250510050524_b2a819a5791612f14c81d30fc393dbd3f99f0c64b90a9110e8b0855d944bfa93" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="998" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  Another welcome change is the focus on safety. Builders climbing the chariot’s tower now wear harnesses and there are efforts in crowd control. The most visible change in recent years has been the involvement of Patan’s enthusiastic youth in the festival — the tradition is now passing to a new generation. Says Matsyendranath expert Vidhu Kayastha: “There is more energy, the young people in red t-shirts this year were very organised, these modern touches aren’t diluting our culture, they’re keeping it alive in new forms.” He adds, “We are <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/searching-for-a-homeland-away-from-home">reconnecting with our roots</a>, we have more resources, more awareness than ever before. We must not be swept away by western values that may not serve us, and in some ways, cause more harm than good. We must revive our own culture.”&nbsp;

Divine chariot

In 2025, two seemingly disconnected acts of violence shattered the illusion of stability in the region. In March, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/16f7f947-1e96-4206-9844-891378adc683" target="_blank">militants hijacked a passenger train</a> near the Bolan Pass in Balochistan, executing soldiers in cold blood. A month later, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/world/asia/kashmir-terrorist-attack.html" target="_blank">gunmen in Kashmir’s</a> Pahalgam Valley massacred tourists. 
In both Islamabad and New Delhi, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/4/25/were-cursed-kashmiris-under-attack-across-india-after-pahalgam-killings" target="_blank">the reaction was reflexive:</a> condemn the violence, <a href="https://www.economist.com/asia/2025/04/22/india-and-pakistan-could-come-to-blows-over-kashmir" target="_blank">blame external enemies</a>, declare the situation contained. But South Asia’s leaders are not fighting terrorists alone. They are fighting the consequences of their own betrayals.
Across <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26272897" target="_blank">Balochistan</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-south-asia-11693674" target="_blank">Kashmir</a>, <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-asia/india/346-finding-way-out-festering-conflict-indias-manipur" target="_blank">Manipur</a>, and beyond, decades of <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/projects/enforced-disappearance-in-south-asia/" target="_blank">enforced disappearances</a>, broken promises, and brute militarisation have hollowed out the social contracts meant to hold these nations together. The grievances that drove rebellions from the 1940s through the 1990s – demands for dignity, recognition, and political agency – were never meaningfully addressed. They were buried beneath asphalt and propaganda, paved over by development projects and security checkpoints.
States may claim victory. But their victories are mirages, dissolving the moment anyone looks too closely. South Asia’s unfinished wars are not relics of a violent past. They are live ammunition, loaded into the future.
<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/24/he-only-wanted-revenge-the-bloody-insurgency-in-balochistan-gaining-lethal-momentum" target="_blank">Balochistan</a> has been at war with Pakistan for most of its modern history. Rich in gas, minerals, and coastline, the province has been plundered for decades under the language of national development. 
Projects like the <a href="https://eastasiaforum.org/2020/11/26/pakistans-three-evils-cpec-and-good-governance/" target="_blank">China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)</a> promise progress but deliver exclusion: minerals are mined, ports are secured, but Baloch homes are raided. 
The insurgency endures not because of foreign conspiracies, as Islamabad endlessly insists, but because the Pakistani state remains incapable of seeing its <a href="https://thebalochistanpost.net/2025/01/enforced-disappearances-in-balochistan-in-december-2024-tbp-report/" target="_blank">Baloch citizens</a> as anything other than a security problem to be managed.
In <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/ranisingh/2016/07/12/kashmir-in-the-worlds-most-militarized-zone-violence-after-years-of-comparative-calm/" target="_blank">Kashmir</a>, the Indian government claims to have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/08/world/asia/kashmir-village-defense-committees.html" target="_blank">“normalised” the valley</a> after revoking its autonomy in 2019. It <a href="https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-between-india-and-pakistan" target="_blank">looks a lot like occupation</a>. Soldiers outnumber local leaders, dissent is criminalised, internet shutdowns suffocate public life. Tourism campaigns and investment summits cannot erase a generation raised under curfew and surveillance.
<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-66260730" target="_blank">Manipur’s descent into ethnic bloodshed</a> in 2023 exposed another fault line Delhi prefers to ignore. Long-simmering tensions between the Meitei and Kuki communities erupted into violence that shattered any illusions of northeastern integration. The central government’s delayed, politicised response made clear what many Manipuris had always suspected: they are citizens of India only when convenient.
Even the <a href="https://msf.org.au/rohingya-worlds-largest-stateless-population" target="_blank">Rohingya, stateless and exiled from Myanmar</a>, find themselves entangled in South Asia’s ethnonationalist calculus. Fleeing genocide, they are criminalised anew in Bangladesh and India – trapped between the countries that reject them and the memories that refuse to let them go.
South Asia’s states have excelled at suppressing rebellion. But failed at extinguishing the reasons rebellions rise in the first place. And the wars South Asia tries to forget at home have found new life abroad.
Across <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-17/modis-indian-government-accused-of-spying-silencing-critics/103974414" target="_blank">Canada, Australia, Britain, and the United States</a>, diasporic communities have become memory-keepers and, increasingly, <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/khalistan-supporters-hold-protest-outside-indian-consulate-in-vancouver-123092600087_1.html" target="_blank">the agitators</a> for the struggles their home states would rather erase.
Khalistan flags fly outside Indian consulates in Vancouver and <a href="https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/punjab/perturbed-over-waving-of-khalistani-flags-at-an-event-in-melbourne-india-warns-australia-of-khalistan-separatists-and-their-links-with-terror-groups-458320/" target="_blank">Melbourne</a>. Tamil activists march through London, demanding accountability for the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/19/grim-reminder-sri-lankas-tamils-mark-15-years-since-end-of-civil-war" target="_blank">massacres in Mullivaikkal</a>. Kashmiri protests in Washington and New York refuse to let India’s crackdown slip into diplomatic amnesia.
For host countries, these movements pose uncomfortable questions. Freedom of expression collides with fears of extremism. Clashes erupt between communities carrying wounds that their new homelands.
Meanwhile, South Asian states pursue their adversaries across borders. India faces allegations of <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/canada-says-india-home-minister-ordered-campaign-against-sikh-activist-rcna177972" target="_blank">targeting Sikh activists for assassination in Canada</a> and the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/10/27/g-s1-29561/sikh-separatist-assassination-india" target="_blank">United States</a>. Pakistan continues to court Kashmiri separatists abroad while crushing Baloch dissent at home. <a href="https://apnews.com/article/sri-lanka-tamils-civil-war-dead-5b372b0bba567837c5a4d94250040e7d" target="_blank">Sri Lanka</a> lobbies furiously to brand Tamil diaspora organisations as fronts for terrorism, even as it stonewalls investigations into its own wartime atrocities.
The old insurgencies have not been defeated. They have been globalised. South Asia’s governments have long mistaken silence for stability.
In Punjab, India broke the back of the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/06/india/india-canada-sikh-khalistan-analysis-intl-hnk/index.html" target="_blank">Khalistan insurgency</a> through brute force. The fields grew green again, the trains ran on time. But the wounds were never closed, the <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/why-is-indias-khalistan-separatist-movement-on-the-rise/a-65081729" target="_blank">movement’s heart beats</a> not in Amritsar but in Brampton and Surrey.
In Sri Lanka, the <a href="https://www.academia.edu/4738983/The_Man_Who_Destroyed_Eelam" target="_blank">military crushed the Tamil Tigers</a> with <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2011/01/17/death-of-the-tiger" target="_blank">overwhelming brutality in 2009</a>. <a href="https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3264148/we-want-our-children-back-sri-lankan-families-still-demanding-justice-their-missing-loved-ones" target="_blank">Tamil families still search for their missing</a>, still mourn their dead – and still organise across the diaspora for justice that remains undelivered.
In Kashmir, Delhi boasts of new <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/2/4/kashmir-is-bleeding-its-economy" target="_blank">highways and investment corridors</a>, showcasing the region as a trophy of unity. But when the visitors leave and the cameras are packed away, <a href="https://harvardlawreview.org/print/vol-134/from-domicile-to-dominion-indias-settler-colonial-agenda-in-kashmir/" target="_blank">the checkpoints, the raids, and the quiet despair remain.</a>
Victory parades fade. Grievance endures. Suppressing insurgency may end battles. It does not end the ideas that fueled them. In a region where <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/23/world/asia/kashmir-attack-india-pakistan.html" target="_blank">history is rarely past</a>, and memory is rarely voluntary, states that rule through repression are only ever buying time. And often, not very much.
South Asia’s unfinished wars are not accidents. They are the inevitable consequences of states that confuse conquest with consent, and erasure with reconciliation. They cannot legislate memory out of existence.
Every <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c15qyyzz89lo" target="_blank">disappeared son in Balochistan</a>, every <a href="https://medium.com/the-wvoice/the-half-widows-in-kashmir-fef80c6b88e9" target="_blank">half-widow in Kashmir</a>, every <a href="https://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/what-we-do/focus/rohingya-refugee-crisis" target="_blank">refugee child born stateless in a Rohingya camp</a> carries forward the memory of betrayal – a memory that outlives soldiers, politicians, and peace accords alike.
The region’s future will not be decided by GDP figures or infrastructure projects alone. It will be decided by whether its governments can summon the political courage to face the truths they have long suppressed – or whether they will continue down a path <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-is-using-the-g20-summit-to-further-its-settler-colonial-ambitions-in-kashmir-205166" target="_blank">where forgetting is demanded</a>, and rebellion becomes inevitable.
Shyam Tekwani is a professor at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Hawaii. This <a href="https://dkiapcss.edu/nexus_articles/ghosts-at-the-border-south-asias-unfinished-wars/" target="_blank">article</a> was originally published on <a href="https://dkiapcss.edu/security-nexus/" target="_blank">DKI APCSS Security Nexus.</a> The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of DKI APCSS, the Department of Defense, or the US Government. The appearance of external hyperlinks does not constitute endorsement by the United States Department of Defense (DoD) of the linked websites, or the information, products, or services contained therein. DoD does not exercise any editorial, security, or other control over the information you may find at these sites.

Balochistan to Kashmir

Most Nepalis thought they had seen the last of it after <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/11-56-25-april-2015-wkc9q2an">the 25 April 7.8 magnitude </a>earthquake ten years ago. But the Himalaya had more surprises in store. On 12 May, another 7.3 magnitude tremor that some said was an aftershock, but was strong enough to itself be a major earthquake, struck Dolakha.&nbsp; Not many people had heard of Singati till then — a cluster of houses by the Tama Kosi River along a narrow gorge that is the roadhead to Rolwaling Valley.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_57b6e316656851f71eca56ca6f98d9bbcc820c1a00d62af3c990725b4361244d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250508110520_57b6e316656851f71eca56ca6f98d9bbcc820c1a00d62af3c990725b4361244d" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1500" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_016534fb2b6a79957402281cda768efb83a146786377e39e11df3e251d37159e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20250508110520_016534fb2b6a79957402281cda768efb83a146786377e39e11df3e251d37159e" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>  It was here that dozens were killed on 25 April in the first earthquake. Hundreds of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Singati-rising-from-rubble-rebuilding,3703">Singati survivors</a> had lined up for food and relief supplies in the morning of 12 May when the second earthquake triggered a rock slide that buried a nearby camp. At least 50 people were killed. &nbsp; Three hours later, a US Marine Corps UH-1Y Venom helicopter landed in a nearby cornfield to pick up the wounded, and flew off. The aircraft lost contact with air traffic control in Kathmandu and its wreckage was located high on Kalinchok four days later. Six American servicemen, two Nepal Army soldiers, and five wounded civilians from Singati were killed. Today, Singati bears little physical scar of the multiple tragedies that struck the town ten years ago. Most <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/bungamati-builds-back">houses have been rebuilt</a> as urban-style concrete structures, and Singati has become an economic hub on the road leading up to several hydropower plants and a<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/off-the-beaten-trek-in-nepal"> popular trekking destination</a>.&nbsp; The town looks less like a village and more like a suburb of the Dolakha district headquarter of Charikot, 47km away.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_196f341d1df1403ba133e5dfeb837eec20d7cbcb4c8c56b17cc5598810de5df2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20250508110520_196f341d1df1403ba133e5dfeb837eec20d7cbcb4c8c56b17cc5598810de5df2" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110524_ae66c4a92430f67db51b5e11e017059eedfbac4cb18c8e073f2a50cca1fe904e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20250508110524_ae66c4a92430f67db51b5e11e017059eedfbac4cb18c8e073f2a50cca1fe904e" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>  “The demand for construction material, cement, iron rods and bricks peaked after the earthquakes,” says Suresh Khadka, who owns a hardware business here and now supplies material to the 456MW Upper Tama Kosi hydropower project that is undergoing repairs after it was damaged by a landslide last year. The demand for cement boomed since most residents believe, not necessarily correctly, that <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/in-a-disastrous-state">cement houses are safer</a>. Although Khadka did well selling construction material after the earthquake, he worries that most new structures do not follow seismic-resistant building codes.&nbsp; The construction boom financed by bank loans has in turn forced many from Singati to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/making-overseas-migration-better">migrate overseas for work</a> so they can service their debt.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110524_50caa4530bd5ff9120cf7ab70a62173846d337ef448ff8bac339f3faa375a9e2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250508110524_50caa4530bd5ff9120cf7ab70a62173846d337ef448ff8bac339f3faa375a9e2" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> <figcaption>Suresh Khadka</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_ef8b7d3993fc3b5df852bbf952feb3fbabc96d6883b0d5eb74ee5c60f4123b83.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="20250508110520_ef8b7d3993fc3b5df852bbf952feb3fbabc96d6883b0d5eb74ee5c60f4123b83" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> <figcaption>Phu Doma Sherpa (right)</figcaption> </figure>  “My family had no choice but to borrow money to rebuild our home since the government compensation was not enough, and ten years later we are still paying off the loan,” says Phu Doma Sherpa, 60. Because of the shortage of qualified masons and proper seismic engineering, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/structural-problems">many of the buildings are of questionable building standards </a>and the traditional architecture has been abandoned, admits Kul Bahadur Budathoki, deputy chair of the municipality. “But these buildings were more expensive than what the government grants could cover, many people here are heavily in debt and the men have <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/every-day-is-closer-to-pay-day">migrated to the Gulf to pay their loans</a>,” Budathoki says.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_32f89e97b7e757fc9286c0bbb671f48ea8d4468e9634fa646d7247c650ad8480.jpg" data-media-id="editor_14" data-image-id="20250508110520_32f89e97b7e757fc9286c0bbb671f48ea8d4468e9634fa646d7247c650ad8480" data-rendition-name="original" width="1501" height="1079" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> <figcaption>Kul Bahadur Budathoki</figcaption> </figure>  Singati is in a multi-hazard zone. The <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Singati,3091">12 May 2015 earthquake </a>could have led to the collapse of Nepal’s largest glacial lake, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/stairway-to-heaven">Tso Rolpa</a>, upstream. Due to global warming, the glacier has turned into an expanding lake 3.5km long, and its collapse would have unleashed a catastrophic Himalayan tsunami down the Tama Kosi Valley, with Singati directly in its path. Singati has literally risen from the ashes of 2015, with its residents beginning to recover from the trauma and financial toll. But it is not out of danger as <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/climate-breakdown-linked-to-thame-flood">climate breakdown </a>magnifies the risk from future earthquakes.

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