There is less than two years to go till elections to all three levels of government, and Nepal’s major political parties are gearing up to engage voters. The governing UML has launched its ‘Mission 2084’ campaign, but the party is being rocked by former president Bidhya Devi Bhandari's effort to join the electoral fray. The UML’s coalition partner, the Nepali Congress (NC) is wracked by rival contenders arguing over whether to hold its general convention before or after the next polls.&nbsp; The opposition Maoist Centre is on a nationwide grassroots tour to rebuild its support base after it was ousted from the UML-Maoist coalition last year. The leaders of the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) in a strategic move are mobilising the diaspora to vote for the party symbol, bell, or influence family members back home.&nbsp; RSP lawmaker Sumana Shrestha recently addressed Nepalis living overseas, urging them to participate in the next election.&nbsp; ‘Save your time off, save your money, and come back home in 2027 — either to run for one of the 36,000 elected positions, or support those who are running for office,’ Shrestha said. ‘But whatever the case, you must come back to vote. Let’s ring the bell in 2027.’ Overseas Nepalis emerged as an important bloc during the 2022 election because they convinced families back home to vote for new independent candidates, not established party nominees. RSP hopes to cash in on this anti-incumbent protest vote again.&nbsp; The census put the country’s absentee population at 2.1 million, but experts say it is at least double that. Most are in the 20-35 age group, and disillusioned with Nepal’s serial leaders. Social media platforms allow them to be apprised of goings-on in Nepal, which means those living and working overseas are actively engaged in politics back home. This week, the judiciary’s judgement implementation directorate, in response to an application from lawyers associated with the RSP, sent a reminder to the Election Commission to act on the Supreme Court’s 2018 ruling to guarantee Nepalis overseas their constitutional right to vote.&nbsp; The Election Commission itself in 2023 registered the Bill to Amend and Consolidate the Election Law proposing various amendments including out of country voting, but the Bill has been idling at the Home Ministry for two years because of lack of support from the three main parties. “The state and the Election Commission have been lethargic in taking action to ensure rights for out of country voting,” former Chief Election Commissioner Bhoj Raj Pokharel told us. Ensuring out of country voting rights is not a new idea. During the 1980 referendum on the Panchayat system, some embassy staff and officials abroad were allowed to vote. And the Election Commission floated the idea in 2008, but that did not go anywhere.&nbsp; It is not just opposition from mainstream parties that has prevented voting by mail. There are also legal, financial, and technical challenges. “In principle, we expect that our political leadership wants as many people as possible to exercise their franchise and participate in the political process,” says Radhika Regmi Pokharel of The International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES).&nbsp; But, she adds, “In reality, if the leadership thinks absentee voting might jeopardise their chances of winning, they will be less keen on carrying out electoral reforms.” Nepali students, migrant workers, and people holding long-term residency permits are scattered across the world. It will be a challenge to set up voting booths at multiple points beyond embassies and consulates during elections, especially without bilateral agreements in place to designate spaces for polls.&nbsp; Nepal’s mixed first-past-the-post (FPTP) and Proportional Representation (PR) electoral system also means that conducting elections at a Nepali Embassy for example in Qatar where there are hundreds of thousands of Nepalis will be complicated, Pokharel explains. There are Nepalis from multiple constituencies in a host country, and FPTP ballots are different for each constituency, while PR voting only requires a single ballot.&nbsp; “We can at least conduct PR elections overseas, but that does not ensure complete electoral justice,” adds Pokharel. “The problem lies in implementing electoral laws in a way that ensures overseas voters can exercise their franchise.”&nbsp; Experts say some pilot schemes for overseas voters can be started in select embassies where feasible.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025072411078_31edf240cc052692f0ba33d364bbf8981a584a4ab590691cf1b1388a646cd49c.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025072411078_31edf240cc052692f0ba33d364bbf8981a584a4ab590691cf1b1388a646cd49c" data-rendition-name="original" width="900" height="592" loading="lazy" alt="Nepalis overseas"> </figure>  “Even if we are not ready, the least we can do is to make sure that Nepalis abroad, in particular overseas migrant workers, are registered to vote, be it through Nepali embassies of the countries they are based in, or when they leave Kathmandu airport, or at points along the Nepal-India border,” says Gopal Krishna Siwakoti at the Asian Network for Free Elections (ANFREL). Whether or not they are able to vote, overseas Nepalis will nonetheless be influential in upcoming elections. “Nepali diaspora, especially those who are settled permanently abroad will influence voters here in Nepal to some extent even if they are loyal to a particular party,” adds Siwakoti. But it is not about guaranteeing voting rights just for those abroad, all eligible voters within Nepal must also be allowed to vote in the place of their domicile and not make a journey back to their districts.&nbsp; “There is a lot of talk about out of country voting, but how about in country voting?” asks Regmi. &nbsp; At present, Nepalis cannot vote from their current place of residence. Only election officials and security personnel can cast at least their PR ballots from where they are stationed.&nbsp; Internal migration and inability to leave work means many cannot travel to their constituencies for election day. Some candidates therefore spend money to bus voters to their constituencies to vote.&nbsp; While Nepalis have historically shown great enthusiasm at election time, the need to travel to vote combined with increasing apathy towards traditional parties, means turnout declined from 78% in 2017 to 62% in 2022. Early voting, mail-in ballots, fixed election dates, and facilitating electronic voting would make it easier for people both within and outside the country to vote. But mail-in voting will depend on the postal system, which is not reliable, and online voting may also have security challenges, both domestic and geopolitical.&nbsp; Most of all, facilitating all these different methods of voting will require significant costs. “Ultimately, democracy does not come cheap, and we have to invest in it,” says Regmi.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the governing UML-NC coalition has been debating constitutional amendments to reform the mixed election mechanism, an agenda they had hinged their partnership on when they formed their alliance last year.&nbsp; Nepal’s political leadership has long maintained that the country’s mixed electoral system does not allow for one party to form a majority, only coalition governments, which has made governance and politics in Nepal unstable.&nbsp; Coalition leaders say they want to amend the Constitution to ensure political stability by ensuring members of the House of Representatives are elected through the FPTP system, and members of the National Assembly are chosen through the PR method.&nbsp; However, experts say it is not so much the electoral system but governance and political leadership that are responsible for high government turnover and instability. They point to countries like Japan, Switzerland, and Germany which have stable politics despite having a similar mixed electoral scheme.&nbsp; Inclusive, Diverse “Every electoral system has its unique characteristic, there is no one perfect system," says Pokharel. “An electoral system does not &nbsp;guarantee stability, that is up to the drivers of our state mechanism.” &nbsp; The proposed amendments risk rolling back the quotas and reservation that currently guarantee the representation of women and Nepalis from underserved communities in national politics. “FPTP has become costly, and women and minority communities simply do not have the resources and network to compete with other candidates in more privileged positions,” says Regmi. “Currently proposed amendments will deal a heavy blow to inclusivity and diversity in governance.”&nbsp; Promises of electoral reforms have not materialised into concrete plans of action. And with just two years to go for 2027, it will be difficult to organise out of country voting or modify the mixed electoral system — even if Parliament passes relevant laws.&nbsp; “It is too late now to successfully set up the relevant infrastructure and systems overseas in time for 2027,” says Regmi. Pokharel concurs: “They need a two-third majority in Parliament to successfully amend the Constitution. Barring a miracle, I don’t see a possibility of election reform before 2027.” &nbsp;

Shristi Karki

original

674x448

610x380

500x500

400x266

400x240

400x203

301x200

1250x600

1084x550

thumbnail

viewImage

Looking ahead to Nepal’s 2027 elections

We can sit here all day, moaning and groaning about everything that is wrong with Nepal. But what are the solutions?
One place to start would be with <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/another-decade-to-get-it-right?preview_nonce=e8166bf726" target="_blank">electoral reform</a>. Just about every malaise in Nepali politics starts with flaws in the voting process. Despite <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/to-the-promised-land-after-election,4082" target="_blank">periodic elections</a> giving a candidate mandate, it rarely translates into <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/performance-legitimacy,3505" target="_blank">performance legitimacy</a>. As a result, crooks get re-elected over and over again.
It has become fashionable these days to blame democracy for governance failure, corruption, and lack of accountability. Some like the current prime minister are batting for an executive presidency to streamline decision-making.&nbsp;
Since 1990, however, the malfunction has not been in the democratic system but in the elected office-holders who populate it.
In many parts of the world, the democratic process has been hijacked by populists who fan ultra-nationalism, religious intolerance and xenophobia to get elected and then proceed to dismantle the very institutions of democracy that got them elected in the first place.
The stench of decomposing democracy is now overpowering, even in a certain neighbouring country. Although in Nepal we need to remain vigilant to prevent the election of demagogues, our problem is different: politicians who have struggled, suffered and sacrificed their lives for the restoration of democracy are the very ones undermining it.&nbsp;
And since democracy by definition means adult franchise, we have to ensure that all citizens have a say in selecting the most honest and efficient managers to run their municipal, provincial or federal governments for a given period.
The electoral system in a democracy lays down the rules about how those candidates are chosen. If the rules are relevant and are followed, we get a representative government and the people can reward elected officials with a second term in office.
Nepalis have historically shown great enthusiasm at election time, with <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/lower-than-usual-turnout-in-nepal-polls" target="_blank">turnouts</a> usually exceeding 65% in most constituencies. The voting is relatively peaceful, free and fair. The 2015 Constitution made elected assemblies more inclusive in terms of gender and minorities.
However, there have always been serious concerns about election financing and the high cost of campaigning. Vote buying, cashing in on caste, ethnic or party vote banks end up narrowing the choice for voters. &nbsp;
A candidate who has to first pay the party boss for a ticket, then spend a fortune on wholesalers of bulk votes will (if elected) try to recoup that investment many times over.&nbsp;
This <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-business-of-politics-in-nepal" target="_blank">politics of patronage</a> means that campaign financing comes from business cronies who will demand their pound of flesh in licenses and contracts from the representative they helped elevate to office.&nbsp;
That is why we now have so many <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/bulldozing-democracy" target="_blank">businessmen who are MPs, &nbsp;mayors and ward chairs</a>. Captains of industry figured that instead of giving money to someone else, why not run for office themselves? &nbsp;This has made it more and more difficult to distinguish between businessmen and politicians, it has politicised crime and criminalised politics.&nbsp;
On Monday, Nepal’s Election Commission came out with a new integrated draft bill based on several laws that will now be debated in the current session of Parliament.&nbsp;
The bill contains some radical reforms which, if implemented, could change the electoral system for the better. The First Past the Post (FPTP) system is the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/trickledown-corruption,4176" target="_blank">root of corruption</a>, and the bill would disallow those who have lost an election from contesting from another constituency.
The Proportional Representation (PR) system was supposed to promote inclusiveness, but has mostly promoted nepotism. The bill would bar serial MPs elected under the PR quota from contesting more than twice.
Since the FPTP system has not <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/headline/Pro-women,4081" target="_blank">ensured gender balance</a>, the bill binds parties to ensure that 33% of candidates for direct voting are women. The bill also seeks to add ‘None of the Above’ on the ballot paper, and if 50% of them are no votes, the election is null and void.
Perhaps the most welcome point in the bill is a provision that we have been <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/mirage-of-migrant-rights" target="_blank">hammering away</a> at in this space for years: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/we-are-treated-like-atms" target="_blank">absentee ballots</a>. Mailing and early polling would ensure that the 15% of Nepalis living abroad can <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/our-notes-count-but-our-votes-don-t" target="_blank">exercise their constitutional right to vote</a>.&nbsp;
Successive governments have blocked absentee ballots despite a Supreme Court ruling in 2018 because they fear diaspora votes will be anti-incumbent. The International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA) notes that 151 of 216 countries allow nationals living abroad to vote.&nbsp;
What the Election Commission does not go far enough in its proposed bill is to make election financing more transparent because that is at the root of corruption in high places. We realise this is notoriously difficult to enforce, and even the United States has not been able to rein in campaign financing. But rules should at least be laid down.
There is rampant abuse of the PR system as a fig leaf for inclusion, why not scrap it altogether and instead require parties to field more women and minorities in the direct ballot.
In the final analysis, elections work if the political parties themselves have internal democracy, and the voters can make informed choices about candidates. Otherwise we will keep on having free and unfair elections that deliver the same tried, tested and failed candidates to office.
Parliament may do well to not just pass this bill, but also add into it additional reform measures about campaign financing.&nbsp;

Free and unfair

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

&nbsp;
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="700" frameborder="0"> </iframe></div>

Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

electoral-reform

Looking ahead to Nepal’s 2027 elections

Free and unfair

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

Nepal election live results

Bells ring all over Nepal

The magic 138