<img width="640" height="371" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131128/636ceee89c7e80680e09ae58jpeg.jpg" alt=""/>Widely criticised for its hefty tax on battery-powered vehicles in last year’s budget, Prime Minister Oli’s government under a new finance minister has backtracked to scrap the controversial tax hikes on e-vehicle imports.Last year, Finance Minister Yubaraj Khatiwada slapped excise duties on e-vehicles of 30-80% depending on their capacity, and levied customs duty of 60%. He justified it saying electric SUVs were luxury items, and the government needed to augment revenue to fight the Covid-19 pandemic.The move priced e-vehicles out of the market at a time when sales had just started to pick up, and various brands of electric vehicles were gaining popularity because of their expanded range. But Khatiwada’s move  spiked prices of electric vehicles by 120-140%, making them less competitive vis-a-vis fossil-fuel alternatives.  The government’s move appears to be geared to reducing the import of petroleum import bill, and also to increase electricity consumption as Nepal’s new hydropower plants come online this year, giving an energy surplus. Saturday’s new budget presented by Finance Minister Bishnu Paudel has completely repealed excise duties on e-vehicle imports while cutting customs duties down to the earlier 10%. This takes the tax formula back to 2016 when cuts in excise and customs duty had made battery-operated vehicles gain popularity.Paudel also announced that renewal and road taxes will be waived for five years if an existing petroleum vehicles switches to battery power.The new policies are based on Nepal’s ambitious plan to phase out petrol-diesel vehicles with e-vehicles by 2031, especially as lockdowns increase public consciousness on Nepal’s growing air pollution problem caused mainly by vehicular emissions.Analysts say that the government had no choice because most countries that Nepal imports cars from, including India and China have announced phaseouts of new petroleum vehicles in the next decade. Following the budget announcement, Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) signed a contract with Chinese firm Wanwang Digital Energy Corporation for the installation and maintenance of 50 e-vehicle charging ports across Nepal. The finance minister’s budget speech also announces tax cuts on electric consumer goods and home appliances, including induction stoves, rice cookers and electric kettles. The excise on those items have been removed and the customs duty has been slashed to only 1%.With the Upper Tamakosi’s 456MW soon being hooked to the grid, and another 800MW are expected to be added from new hydropower plants on the Bhote Kosi and other rivers. The NEA has already made Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) to buy about 6,000MW of electricity from private operators, but a lot of this will depend on the commissioning of transmission lines under the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/power-politics-delays-mcc-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/power-politics-delays-mcc-in-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1622449784871000&amp;usg=AFQjCNER1b-E4jV_wM6LmsXEHmhipEELsQ">Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) project</a>.The budget also had other environment-friendly policies like a ban on the manufacture, distribution and use of plastic bags thinner than 40 microns. The government will also subsidise plastic industries to upgrade machinery so they do not have to produce thin plastic bags that cannot be recycled.The budget has slashed taxes on agricultural equipment to promote farm mechanisation. It also announced tax breaks for those donating for Covid-19 charities, as well as reduced taxes on medical equipment used for treatment during the pandemic. Industries investing in new oxygen plants will get a 50% subsidy from the government, while existing factories will get a 50% discount on their electricity bills.In order to boost post-Covid tourism revival, the government has decided to scrap visa fees for visitors to Nepal. Chinese and SAARC nationals already had free visas, now visitors from other countries will also not have to pay $30 for 15 day visas. The budget has also slashed the tax that hotels, travel agencies and other tourism-related service industries have to pay.Buoyed by remittances from Nepalis abroad which has defied predictions by actually increasing by 16.5% this year, Finance Minister Paudel predicted a 6.5% economic growth in the coming fiscal year despite the pandemic.

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New Nepal budget sparks electric comeback

<img width="640" height="371" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111152/636b86e29c7e80680e06787bjpeg.jpg" alt=""/>Widely criticised for its hefty tax on battery-powered vehicles in last year’s budget, Prime Minister Oli’s government under a new finance minister has backtracked to scrap the controversial tax hikes on e-vehicle imports.Last year, Finance Minister Yubaraj Khatiwada slapped excise duties on e-vehicles of 30-80% depending on their capacity, and levied customs duty of 60%. He justified it saying electric SUVs were luxury items, and the government needed to augment revenue to fight the Covid-19 pandemic.The move priced e-vehicles out of the market at a time when sales had just started to pick up, and various brands of electric vehicles were gaining popularity because of their expanded range. But Khatiwada’s move  spiked prices of electric vehicles by 120-140%, making them less competitive vis-a-vis fossil-fuel alternatives.  The government’s move appears to be geared to reducing the import of petroleum import bill, and also to increase electricity consumption as Nepal’s new hydropower plants come online this year, giving an energy surplus. Saturday’s new budget presented by Finance Minister Bishnu Paudel has completely repealed excise duties on e-vehicle imports while cutting customs duties down to the earlier 10%. This takes the tax formula back to 2016 when cuts in excise and customs duty had made battery-operated vehicles gain popularity.Paudel also announced that renewal and road taxes will be waived for five years if an existing petroleum vehicles switches to battery power.The new policies are based on Nepal’s ambitious plan to phase out petrol-diesel vehicles with e-vehicles by 2031, especially as lockdowns increase public consciousness on Nepal’s growing air pollution problem caused mainly by vehicular emissions.Analysts say that the government had no choice because most countries that Nepal imports cars from, including India and China have announced phaseouts of new petroleum vehicles in the next decade. Following the budget announcement, Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) signed a contract with Chinese firm Wanwang Digital Energy Corporation for the installation and maintenance of 50 e-vehicle charging ports across Nepal. The finance minister’s budget speech also announces tax cuts on electric consumer goods and home appliances, including induction stoves, rice cookers and electric kettles. The excise on those items have been removed and the customs duty has been slashed to only 1%.With the Upper Tamakosi’s 456MW soon being hooked to the grid, and another 800MW are expected to be added from new hydropower plants on the Bhote Kosi and other rivers. The NEA has already made Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) to buy about 6,000MW of electricity from private operators, but a lot of this will depend on the commissioning of transmission lines under the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/power-politics-delays-mcc-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/power-politics-delays-mcc-in-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1622449784871000&amp;usg=AFQjCNER1b-E4jV_wM6LmsXEHmhipEELsQ">Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) project</a>.The budget also had other environment-friendly policies like a ban on the manufacture, distribution and use of plastic bags thinner than 40 microns. The government will also subsidise plastic industries to upgrade machinery so they do not have to produce thin plastic bags that cannot be recycled.The budget has slashed taxes on agricultural equipment to promote farm mechanisation. It also announced tax breaks for those donating for Covid-19 charities, as well as reduced taxes on medical equipment used for treatment during the pandemic. Industries investing in new oxygen plants will get a 50% subsidy from the government, while existing factories will get a 50% discount on their electricity bills.In order to boost post-Covid tourism revival, the government has decided to scrap visa fees for visitors to Nepal. Chinese and SAARC nationals already had free visas, now visitors from other countries will also not have to pay $30 for 15 day visas. The budget has also slashed the tax that hotels, travel agencies and other tourism-related service industries have to pay.Buoyed by remittances from Nepalis abroad which has defied predictions by actually increasing by 16.5% this year, Finance Minister Paudel predicted a 6.5% economic growth in the coming fiscal year despite the pandemic.

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109171140/636bd8cb9c7e80680e0801ddjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1814" height="1036"/><figcaption></figcaption></figure>After widespread criticism of the decision in the budget to slap hefty taxes on electric vehicles, the Nepal government reversed its move in a Cabinet meeting on Thursday.The decision was made in the same ministerial meeting in which former Finance Minister Yubaraj Khatiwada who had raised the tax on battery-powered cars was appointed Nepal’s new ambassador to the United States.The Cabinet decided to reduce the taxes by between 25 to 80% depending on the capacity of the vehicles, although the VAT and excise tax have been retained.Despite his own government’s commitment two years ago to make 20% of vehicles electric-powered by 2020, in his annual budget speech in May, Khatiwada increased the excise tax of only 10% on battery cars to 40-60%, and another 60% customs duty.Under current rules, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2016/05/29/shifting-gears-2/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2016/05/29/shifting-gears-2/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1601694312598000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHkpxKBeBKEa33pxHkQChe8ZGqLBA">electric cars only had to pay 10% excise and 13%VAT and minimal customs duty</a>. Now, the tax formula has raised the total tax to between 120-140% which would price battery cars higher than a petrol or diesel car of the same size.Battery-powered cars had <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-electric-transport-future-is-here/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-electric-transport-future-is-here/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1601694312598000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGawuJDXhotvCiVL4decVlLUD63Rg">gained popularity in Nepal</a> in the past decade because of the low taxes had made electric cars more competitive than fossil-fuel cars which are taxed at 260%. And in the past two years, improvements in range and charging times of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/plug-ins/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/plug-ins/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1601694312598000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE7oLKLS-ajgDTtWidQEg-8-9QdXA">plug-ins</a> made them much sought after.After his budget speech, Khatiwada was accused of pandering to the interest of the diesel and petrol lobby and there was much outrage about his decision. The finance minister defended his move saying that battery SUVs were a luxury item and there was no reason they should not be taxed at the same rate as diesel ones.At a time when Nepal had a surplus of electricity in its grid for the first time in many years, the government was accused of letting it go waste by not using the power to charge cars at night.Khatiwada had raised the tax formula to between 120-140% which would price battery cars higher than a petrol or diesel car of the same size. Electric vehicles of peak power 50-100kW had to pay 40% excise, 50% if it was 100-150kW. The excise went up to 60% for battery cars with peak power of 150-200kW.Thursday’s Cabinet decision now announced a 80% tax rebate on vehicles in the 30% excise bracket, 75% rebate for cars in the 40% excise bracket. More expensive electric vehicles with 50% excise would now have 35% of their tax shaved off, and 25% rebate for cars in the higher bracket.Nepal imports battery-powered cars from India’s Mahindra, Kia and Hyundai, MG, Peugeot, Audi and BYD. Because the budget decision in May was so sudden, many of their vehicles were en route, and some of them have been parked at the Birganj customs on the Indian border for the past four months.Importers who had cancelled further orders after May said Thursday’s Cabinet decision was “better than nothing” they had cancelled further orders.Electric cars were also exempted from the annual Rs35,000 road tax that petrol and diesel vehicles had to pay. However, Thursday’s Cabinet decision does not mention waving this tax.There were other advantages in promoting electric vehicles, and foremost among them was using surplus domestically-generated electricity and reducing the reliance on fossil fuel imports from India. Nepal’s diesel imports alone have doubled since 2016.Electric cars were also seen as a way to reduce <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/cleaner-air-with-greener-buses/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/cleaner-air-with-greener-buses/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1601694312598000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFetT0Jr_TNul7A17UuHsgiJbAbTA">Kathmandu’s air pollution</a> and make an <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-lockdown-proves-air-quality-can-be-improved/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-lockdown-proves-air-quality-can-be-improved/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1601694312598000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFrE8I5eqo0JFlXqHI_BhFcxzzSHQ">improvement in air quality</a>.

Nepal reduces tax on electric cars

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="700" frameborder="0"> </iframe></div>

Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

electric-car-tax

New Nepal budget sparks electric comeback

New Nepal budget sparks electric comeback

Nepal reduces tax on electric cars

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

Nepal election live results

Bells ring all over Nepal

The magic 138