Nepal’s Supreme Court has summoned the President Chure Terai Madhesh Conservation Development Board and the National Trust for Nature Conservation (NTNC) in a public interest litigation case against the amendment of the <a href="https://www.forestaction.org/app/webroot/js/tinymce/editor/plugins/filemanager/files/National_Park_Act_1973_Nepal%20(1).pdf">1973 National Parks and Wildlife Conservation Act</a>.
The Constitutional Bench comprising Chief Justice Bishowambhar Prasad Shrestha, as Justices Prakash Man Singh Raut, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/latest/the-goal-is-empowerment-and-independence-of-women">Sapana Pradhan Malla</a>, Prakash Kumar Dhungana and Kumar Regmi ordered representatives of the two institutions to appear in court for a hearing on the writ petition.
In July, President Ramchandra Paudel authenticated a Bill passed hurriedly and secretively by the new NC-UML coalition in both Houses to amend provisions in the 1973 Act to allow investment in infrastructure and projects inside protected areas.
Read more: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/protecting-protected-areas-from-infrastructure">Protecting protected areas from infrastructure</a>, Sonia Awale
Senior advocates Prakash Mani Sharma, Dilraj Khanal and Padam Bahadur Shrestha filed a writ in the Supreme Court demanding that the amendments be declared null and void because the amendments added in Section 5A of the Act were against Nepal’s own conservation commitments, and obligations under international biodiversity pacts of which Nepal is a signatory.
The petitioners argue that the amendments were introduced through an investment bill by the Ministry of Industry, Commerce and Supplies instead of the Ministry of Forests and Environment, and would throw off the careful balance between environmental protection and development in Nepal.
There is a danger Nepal’s internationally-recognised successes in doubling forest cover in 25 years to 46% of area mainly because of community forestry,<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/people-tigers-trees-and-rivers"> tripling the tiger population</a>, and biodiversity protection will be rolled back, they say. The amendment is reportedly being pushed by politicians and their powerful business cronies with support from some international consultants.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/protecting-nepal-s-parks-by-saving-buffer-zones">Protecting Nepal’s parks by saving buffer zones</a>, Teri D Allendorf
The writ petition also argues that the fragmentation of the authority and integrity of protected areas will directly contribute to irreversible ecological damage, harming local livelihoods and heighten inequity.&nbsp;
The petitioners claim that the amendment poses not only an unfair restriction on the right of Nepali citizens to live in a clean and healthy environment, but directly interferes with human-nature coexistence.
As it is, forest protection is the only climate target pledged by Nepal’s leaders at international conferences that the country has actually met. Another investigation shows that illegal logging and timber smuggling is rampant mainly in three Tarai districts bordering India where forest cover is said to have declined by half in past decades.&nbsp;
In particular, section 5A of the Act, which has provisions related to prohibited activities within national parks and reserves, now includes an added clause which will essentially allow the government to designate 'non-sensitive' areas within these protected zones, enabling private sector investment in resorts, cable cars, railways and other infrastructure.&nbsp;
Some international credit agencies and investors argue that Nepal’s economy and local communities must benefit from the country’s conservation successes, and the best way is to allow carefully calibrated investment in national parks, conservation areas, and community forests.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/conservation-vs-conservatives">Conservation vs Conservatives</a>, Maheshwor Acharya
That may work in countries where politicians are accountable and the rule of law prevails, but with Nepal’s current level of corruption and governance failure, handing over nature to big business is a recipe for disaster.
Examples abound of recent cut-and-paste environmental impact assessment (EIA) reports presented by the government for the proposed <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/15-points-for-and-against-nijgad-airport">international airport in Nijgad </a>and hydropower projects in ecologically and culturally fragile Himalayan valleys.&nbsp;
Nepal was relatively successful in addressing the humans vs nature challenge by balancing the needs of local people with national parks.&nbsp;
Now we have entered a new era of state vs nature. &nbsp;&nbsp;

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State vs Nature

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131144/637238b09c7e80680e0c739djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1800" height="1200"/><figcaption>A queue of trucks in 2017 at Timure, 3km from the Nepal-China border, waiting to get clearance to cross into Tibet. Since an earthquake in Nepal in 2015 this road has been the only functional route, and has been mostly closed since the Covid-19 pandemic. Nabin Baral</figcaption></figure>On 10 August, China announced that it will start a feasibility study for the ambitious Tibet-Nepal Railway project within a year. Beijing assured visiting Nepali foreign minister Narayan Khadka that China would also bear the $118 million cost of the study.The proposed 170km railway, part of the <a href="https://www.thethirdpole.net/en/tag/belt-and-road/">Belt and Road Initiative</a> (BRI), will link Kerung (Gyirong) in southern Tibet to Kathmandu, entering Nepal in Rasuwa district. The plan is to eventually extend the railway to India.The project is expected to cost $5.5 billion, and is equal to the entire annual state revenue of Nepal. And although only one-third of the total length of the tracks would fall on the Nepal side, this stretch would account for almost half of the costs due to the difficult geology and climate.“The feasibility study will do two important things: first it will determine the route, including ground and bridge proportion. And second will be the type of railway that needs to be built -– high speed or slow,” said Paribesh Parajuli, an engineer who worked as a consultant at the <a href="http://www.dorw.gov.np/">Department of Railways</a> until 2019.Experts say the feasibility study could be a defining move for the Tibet-Nepal Railway, which has been on hold for years with Nepal reluctant to pay for the study, and China reticent about funding it.In late 2018, China prepared a pre-feasibility study of the railway for Nepal and  estimated the total cost of the 72.5 km section in Nepal at $2.75 billion. The <a href="https://www.thethirdpole.net/en/nature/nepal-china-railway/">report</a>, which is not yet publicly available, suggested it was an extremely difficult project because of the terrain gradient, but not impossible.“Technically this will be one of the world’s most difficult feats of railway engineering since it needs to descend from 4,500m on the Tibetan Plateau cut through the Himalaya to Kathmandu at 1,200m."But China has the technological prowess it is possible, as they have already built railways at even higher altitudes in Tibet,” said Aman Chitrakar, spokesperson for Nepal’s Department of Railways.The 2018 pre-feasibility study was carried out by a Chinese team since Nepal lacks the expertise in railway engineering, and the same is expected with the feasibility study.“It’s their money and their expertise will be key, but we hope to be consulted during the study,” Chitrakar said.But some worry about Nepal’s lack of ability to even review technical reports as it does not have railway engineers. The department established a decade ago is dominated by road engineers, and runs only a 52km railway line in the plains connecting Bijalpur and Janakpur to the Indian border, and built with Indian assistance.“It was OK to rely fully on the Chinese for a pre-feasibility study as it was more of a kind of survey, but the feasibility study is a key project document if it’s going to be implemented, and Nepal must have serious eyes on it,” said Parajuli, who is one of the few railway engineers in Nepal.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/no-light-at-end-of-trans-himalayan-train-tunnel/">No light at end of trans-Himalayan train tunnel</a>In 2018 – the same year as the pre-feasibility study – the Nepal Department of Railways and China Railway signed a cooperation agreement. But the Department of Railways was not informed by the Foreign Ministry about any developments during China’s foreign minister Wang Yi’s visit in March and Nepal’s foreign minister’s visit in August.“We heard that our government had signed a MoU on technical schemes of the railway project during Wang Yi’s visit in March and now media reports have said a feasibility study will be carried out, but as an implementing agency we haven’t been informed about any developments that were made in the recent months,” said Chitrakar.<h3>Geopolitics over geology</h3>In 2020, China’s former ambassador to Nepal Qiu Guohong <a href="https://www.nayapatrikadaily.com/news-details/48495/2020-08-03">wrote</a> in a Nepali newspaper: “Our great leader Mao Zedong was the one who sowed the seeds of the Nepal-China railway dream. During Nepal’s late King Birendra Shah’s visit to China in 1973, Mao had mentioned Qinghai-Tibet railway. Even during that time Mao had thought about linking Tibet railway to Kathmandu in Nepal as he was a visionary.”In 2016, China signed a <a href="https://nepaltradeportal.gov.np/trade-agreement?p_p_id=utilportlet_WAR_tepc&amp;p_p_lifecycle=0&amp;p_p_state=normal&amp;p_p_mode=view&amp;_utilportlet_WAR_tepc_param=getDetail&amp;id=307">transit and transport agreement</a> with Nepal when K P Oli, Nepal’s former prime minister, visited China in the aftermath of a border blockade imposed by India because New Delhi <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-34313280">disagreed</a> with some clauses in Nepal’s <a href="https://www.thethirdpole.net/en/climate/analysis-how-decentralisation-in-nepal-is-undermining-climate-action/">new Constitution</a>.Two years later, the railway was a key agenda item when China’s President Xi Jinping visited Nepal. Wang Yi reiterated China’s interest in the railway project in March, and it is four months later that the announcement about the feasibility study has been made.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131144/637238b39c7e80680e0c739ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2560" height="1703"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Besides the geological challenges, there are also geopolitical hurdles. India has been suspicious about the China-Nepal railway. Unlike Nepal, India is not a BRI signatory, and Sino-Indian relations are strained over their border disputes.Former ambassador Qiu wrote in 2020: 'It is both China and Nepal’s responsibility to convince India on the railway’s importance to link India and China and its mutual benefit for the region as Nepal is .. links mainland China and the South Asian subcontinent. So, if we can connect China’s railway network with India’s railway network then this could be an important transit point for the region.'In recent weeks, the cross-border railway project has been covered by Chinese media and elicited responses on Weibo. It has been cited as an important geopolitical project for China.A <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA5MzI1ODEzNA==&amp;mid=2650580859&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=de0b04ce21a41f306981f5c6c765d1cf&amp;chksm=8868af82bf1f269417a45620b4c92cb2fdbbc91f0d2f09bde53f9b028aa8481828229a499919&amp;mpshare=1&amp;scene=1&amp;srcid=0815ycNLQ1jYO5Gzs6VidOqD&amp;sharer_sharetime=1660541348589&amp;sharer_shareid=844200f2439c517375505c42c00cea8a&amp;exportkey=AcmdV3mUQYOiaVntN%2FeTJuA%3D&amp;acctmode=0&amp;pass_ticket=9fKa9XfjGBZNXaGj1ZMnGwa4YRzrH%2BmU4yRlgWH2t63e2FvaVTYvTmscIdmp8kYB&amp;wx_header=0#rd">commentary piece</a> published by Caijing Magazine’s WeChat channel suggested that a rail link through Nepal to India could both 'enhance China-India economic bonds when geopolitical tensions are at ease ... and increase China’s strategic manoeuvring space when tensions are on the rise'.Speaking at a recent webinar organised by the New Delhi-based <a style="background-color: #ffffff; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.icsin.org/">Institute of Chinese Studies</a>. Constantino Xavier, a foreign policy and security expert at the Centre for Social and Economic Progress think tank said: “Greater Chinese influence in Nepal is not a bilateral or regional issue but a global one. India should be able to calculate its relations with global powers rather than just looking to Nepal-China relations or China’s presence in Nepal.”Ecological impactThe ecological impact of the proposed rail line is not being discussed in Nepal, and nothing has been said about what China’s 2021 <a href="https://www.thethirdpole.net/en/climate/china-2021-green-development-guidelines-belt-and-road/">green development guidelines</a> might mean for the project. Some experts say this is due to the Nepal government’s inability to work with the Chinese team.“Any trans-Himalayan project of this scale will have serious environmental impact and there should be more concern around the fragile geology of the region," said Basanta Raj Adhikari at the <a style="letter-spacing: 0.15px; background-color: #ffffff;" href="https://ioe.edu.np/research/centers/centre-for-disaster-studies/">Centre for Disaster Studies</a> at the Institute of Engineering, Tribhuvan University.He says the project also needs to factor in seismic risk since the track will pass through the <a style="background-color: #ffffff; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.lyellcollection.org/doi/10.1144/0016-76492007-081">main central thrust</a> – a geologically weak zone in the Himalayas."It is important to use technical knowledge of geologists and other experts to minimise its environmental impact, but no efforts towards this have been made,”  Adhikari added.In fact, there have been some concerns in China over the ecological impact of the railway. Says one comment on Caijing Magazine’s WeChat channel: 'At a time when we are enduring extreme heat, many are concerned with the railway’s ecological impact on the world’s water tower. Railway maintenance is going to be very challenging in the Himalayan region. International relationships also depend on how we choose to act. Be cautious.”Nepal has a huge trade deficit with China, and Beijing is <a href="https://www.mfa.gov.cn/wjbzhd/202208/t20220810_10740338.shtml">encouraging</a> Nepal to export more to China. From 1 September, 98% of Nepali products were eligible for zero-tariff exports to China.'This will support the Nepalese side to make good use of this policy dividend to expand exports to China,' stated a communique after the meeting of the two foreign ministers in Qingdao last August.Nepal <a href="https://www.customs.gov.np/page/fts-fy-207879">imported</a> goods worth $1.7 billion from China between mid-July 2021 and mid-April 2022, but Nepal’s exports to China were worth just $5 million in this period.“The cross-border railway project, if eventually built, would surely augur well for Nepal’s economy, as the landlocked country’s transport connectivity with China currently relies on a few land ports that can’t operate amid heavy snow or geological disasters,” Long Xingchun, president of the Chengdu Institute of World Affairs, told the <a href="https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202208/1272804.shtml">Global Times.</a>The only functional Nepal-China cross-border road crossing in Rasuwa Gadi, northwest of Kathmandu, had been closed since the Covid-19 pandemic, and was only partially opened last week after the visit to Nepal by Li Zhanshu, Chair of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress of China.This piece was originally published on <a style="background-color: #ffffff; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.thethirdpole.net/en/culture/nepal-honey-hunters-cling-to-traditions-as-bee-numbers-fall/">The Third Pole</a> under the Creative Commons license, and was written by <a href="https://www.thethirdpole.net/en/author/ramesh-bhushal/">Ramesh Bhushal</a>, Nepal Editor at The Third Pole.Read more: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/which-way-will-the-tibet-nepal-railway-go/">Which way will the Tibet-Nepal railway go?</a> Ramesh Bhusha'

Nepal and China to study trans-Himalayan railway

<figure></figure><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-68177" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121140/636ce34a9c7e80680e096645jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1323" height="991"/><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-68176" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121140/636ce34e9c7e80680e096646jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1326" height="993">Kathmandu before and after the wildfires. The second picture was taken on 29 March. Photos: PRABIN RAJBHANDARIThere is political miasma suffocating the country, and like the smoke shrouding Nepal for the past week, there is no immediate end in sight.An environmental crisis is never just about the environment: climate change has political-economic antecedents in energy policy, hazardous air pollution is caused by regulatory failure, political neglect leads to health crises. Poor governance turns rivers into sewers, and policy miscarriage makes pesticides poison the soil.Disasters, too, have political roots. There is nothing natural about ‘natural disasters’. An earthquake does not kill people, corruption that allows building permits for illegal, sub-standard construction does. Floods cannot always be blamed on heavy rainfall, they become human disasters because of poor drainage in new infrastructure.Disaster preparedness is all about foreseeing risk, putting preventive measures in place, and when a calamity does strike, having search, rescue and rehabilitation exercises on standby.The newly-formed Disaster Preparedness and Risk Management Authority has a long list of the dangers that this country is cursed with: earthquakes, landslides and rockfalls, floods, droughts, wildfires, lightning strikes, glacial lake outburst floods, avalanches. And this does not even include disease outbreaks, road traffic accidents and deaths due to preventable causes.More than 7,000 children still die in Nepal every year from diseases that can easily and cheaply be prevented with vaccines, clean drinking water, or smokeless kitchen fireplaces. That breaks down to 20 children who die every day across the country, mainly in poorer, remoter parts of Nepal. They do not make the news because they are not all killed suddenly in one place where there is a tv camera to record the tragedy. But it is an unacceptable crime that should garner banner headlines in the media: ’20 More Children Died Today’.But the media does not because that is the nature of this voracious beast. It only responds to a narrow definition of ‘all the news that is fit to print’. The news business is not geared to predicting disasters, it responds nearly always after a disaster strikes, and then there is a mad scramble to chronicle the carnage.The media is also not so good at covering slowly unfolding disasters, the ones that get worse bit-by-bit and are difficult to measure—like the increase in carbon dioxide concentration in the air, or the winter fog in the Tarai that is worsening every year.‘No news is good news’, and journalists are not primed to cover positive trends, improvements, solutions, or progress. We take our adversarial role so seriously that most reporters think it is not their job to cover development.In a democracy, media is the essential feedback loop to highlight problems, preferably before they become unmanageable, or to cover individuals or communities that have surmounted obstacles and save lives by being prepared for known hazards.The media’s lapse in serving this essential public service function lets governments, policy-makers and politicians off the hook. They can shrug and pretend they had no idea disaster would strike.It is because Nepal’s politics is a disaster in itself, that we had the unprecedented wildfire catastrophe this week. In satellite pictures, we saw the entire country in flames, and the smoke haze was so thick it was off the charts. No one remembers it being so bad for so long. And it will happen again if the root causes are not addressed.Those in government knew all along that this was the fire season. Every year, there are devastating fires that take a toll on lives, property and forests. This year, it should have come as no surprise that fires would be worse because winter precipitation was only 10% of normal in Central Nepal.The Met Dept could have sounded an early-warning, but didn’t. Sure enough, the wildfires started as early as November, and soon spread to different parts of the country, until last week it became just one nationwide bonfire.Nepal’s leaders are too busy in political firefighting to fight actual fires that are ravaging the country. It took some rain to douse the flames, when will it rain on Nepal’s desiccated politics?

Political smokescreen

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Nepal is graduating to become a developing country on 24 November 2026 after half-century in the Least Developed Country (LDC) category. By 2030, the country hopes to transition to middle-income status.&nbsp; Everone from Prime Minister K P Oli have boasted that this is a matter of national pride, and will have a multiplier impact on trade and economy.&nbsp; But will it make any difference to the average Nepali? Not unless improved governance <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/why-invest-in-nepal">spurs investment and creates jobs</a>.&nbsp; Countries need to meet at least two of the three criteria in two consecutive triennial reviews to be eligible for graduation from LDC. Nepal has consistently met the thresholds for the Human Assets Index (HAI) and the Economic and Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) in 2015, 2018, and 2021. But Nepal was recommended for graduation before meeting the per capita <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-great-income-divide">Gross National Income (GNI)</a> threshold of $1,306. “A major implication of LDC graduation is the loss of preferential market access available through Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) and other arrangements,” explains economist Sameer Khatiwada. “But over two-thirds of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-doesnt-produce-its-2-biggest-export-items">Nepal’s exports</a> are to India, and the preferential market access to India is through a bilateral trade agreement. This has nothing to do with our LDC status.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250815060832_f5eabe7628a8cdf84f33b25d7cef3c4dc8913a26d8e5b253ea52a36e176b8a85.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20250815060832_f5eabe7628a8cdf84f33b25d7cef3c4dc8913a26d8e5b253ea52a36e176b8a85" data-rendition-name="original" width="640" height="470" loading="lazy" alt="LDC graduation "> </figure>  Furthermore, a provision under the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) allows Nepal to export to India duty-free if the items are at least 30% value-added. Nepali traders take advantage of this by re-exporting edible oils without meeting that requirement, falsely boosting Nepal’s exports.“ Following graduation from LDC, the value addition threshold might increase to 40%,” says Kalpana Khanal of the Policy Research Institute. “This is supposed to work to our advantage, because on paper value addition inherently means <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/staying-home-to-create-jobs">job creation at home</a>.” But Nepal’s exports to other major destinations will face <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-and-the-us-india-tariff-tiff">tariff increases</a> with the graduation. A South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics and Environment (SWATEE) study shows that while tariff increase in the US market is relatively low (see page 5) it is considerably higher in Europe. The International Trade Centre (ITC) in a 2022 study also estimated that graduation could result in a 4.3% decline in Nepal’s projected exports, but this is excluding the impact of changes in ‘rules of origin’ provisions in preference-granting countries such as the UK and Europe.&nbsp; Nepal’s top export to these preference-granting countries is <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=1482">carpets</a>, and will not be impacted, but other items such as textiles and apparel will be heavily affected due to higher cost of production. The impact will felt mostly by small and medium enterprises which represent the largest share of exports to LDC-specific preference-granting countries. As for the service exports, Nepal never really made use of the World Trade Organization’s LDC services waiver anyway, hence the effect will be minimal, if any. There is also concern about Nepal’s graduation at a time when the global economy is topsy-turvy, amidst <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-point-in-us-india-relations">tariff wars and conflicts</a>. This affects Nepalis abroad directly and may impact <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/more-remittance-more-than-remittance">remittances </a>which hit $11 billion in 2024. In comparison, Nepal only received $350 million in foreign loans and grants last year.&nbsp; Tourism arrivals have finally reached pre-pandemic levels, but bad publicity about pollution, poor infrastructure and bureaucratic hurdles hinder further growth. Manufacturing continues to struggle, while hydropower and the IT sector have taken off.&nbsp; “Look at data -- <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/tourism-needs-a-new-push">tourism arrivals</a> are up, spending is up, IT exports are up, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/why-nepal-needs-to-restore-ev-tax-subsidy">EV sales </a>are up, Europe still needs 85-90 million skilled workers. We are sitting on $16 billion in cash reserves, our balance of payment, foreign exchange reserve, tax to GDP ratio, credit flow are all positive, we have to build on these factors,” says Sujeev Shakya of the Nepal Economic Forum. He adds: “Our mindset creates negativity to promote rent-seeking behaviour, but this cynicism will go away after 2026 with LDC graduation. We must deal with data, look at trends, and projects which will bring in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/from-the-nepali-press/why-there-is-no-foreign-investment-in-nepal">international investments</a>.” Khanal agrees that investment is not dependent on<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/backside/Nepal-not-the-least-developed-country,306"> LDC status</a>. The factors that that affect investment are policy stability, a strong legal framework, market potential and ease of doing business. She adds, “That is where our focus needs to be, and we need to retain <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/diaspora-diaries/migrant-worker-returns-to-create-work-at-home?fbclid=IwAR09xJfsClCwn8uRVAmz28CU658vdKpuyDwB_b1sNlvKtAFFnSldnA0JS2g">Nepalis with jobs at home</a> for our sustained growth.” After 2026, financing support from donors and aid agencies could be affected and Nepal will no longer be able to access Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) to adapt to the impacts of climate change. But the Global Environment Fund and Green Climate Fund will still be available.“ LDC status does not determine bilateral development aid, that is usually driven by broader <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/looking-beyond-two-boulders">geopolitical considerations</a>,” says Sameer Khatiwada. “The World Bank and Asian Development Bank, which provide concessional loans to Nepal, it is determined mainly by per capita income, not LDC status.” &nbsp;However, Nepal may lose some concessional terms for loans. Nepal is currently a lower-middle-income country as per the World Bank in the bracket for GNI between $1,036 and $4,045. The country is already receiving more loans than grants and in July the World Bank increased its interest rate on loans by 100% from 0.75 to 1.5%. “All this means that the impact of LDC graduation for Nepal might not be as earth-shattering as some tend to think. Countries that have recently graduated, such as Botswana and the Maldives, have shows that graduation is just a step in a country’s development path,” says Khatiwada. Sujeev Shakya also sees the glass as half full, explaining that LDC graduation is just a stepping stone if Nepal has the right policies in place. He adds, “Nepal’s biggest advantage is our<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/investing-in-people"> working age population</a> and we have investments coming in. These aided by how adaptive we are as a society are the very foundations on which Nepal will grow.”

Not poor, but not rich

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.