Last month was a tragic reminder of just how unsafe travel in Nepal is, leading some experts to question if there is a mismatch between modern technology and a fatalistic culture. Dor Bahadur Bista tried to get to the bottom of this conundrum in 1991 in his seminal book, Fatalism and Development. It was an early attempt to see how an ‘everything goes’ attitude hindered <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepals-demographic-window-is-closing">Nepal's socio-economic progress</a>.&nbsp; Since then, others have struggled to explain why Nepalis do not adhere to mandatory safety standards in technologies ranging from electricity to gas cylinders, and in road and aviation safety.&nbsp; It has been 30 years since author Kedar Sharma published his book आधुनिकतासँग सावधान (Beware of Modernity) in which he warned that Nepalis had not kept pace with advanced technology. “It gives me no pleasure to say that, tragically, this is still the case,” says Sharma, referring to the loss of life in recurring highway and aviation disasters.&nbsp; “We are careless about following rules in all spheres of life,” adds Sharma. “And this is made worse by our faith in fate which lends to our tendency to be reckless. Roads were supposed to be synonymous with development, but are <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-s-deadly-roads-take-their-toll">now synonymous with death</a>. The quality of roads plays a big role in accidents, but we are culturally, administratively and legally negligent about safety.” Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/underpasses-to-reduce-roadkill-in-nepal?fbclid=IwAR0KntTDqdjk2YwmtQyTSkgh8wjtidPqx4LUNukUpYyT9-9SNO1fXzOA5ns">Underpasses to reduce roadkill in Nepal</a>, Tufan Neupane There has been much debate about regulatory failure in aviation that underlies frequent air crashes, and this was brought to the fore in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/unsafe-skies">last week’s Saurya Airlines crash</a> at Kathmandu airport in which 18 people lost their lives. That crash got much more attention than the disaster on the Mugling highway in which two buses were swept into the Trisuli River by a mudslide, killing 59. An investigation showed the flood was caused by debris from a poorly engineered road up the mountain that was washed down by a torrential downpour at night. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon">Managing the monsoon</a>, Ngamindra Dahal It is easy to blame accidents on Nepal’s terrain and weather, but there are deeper socio-cultural underpinnings that magnify these dangers. And the buck stops at the gate of government. There are other soft states like Nepal that also have harsh conditions, but do not suffer such frequent disasters.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240802050832_60c87a1a569467f65bab8cfe0f05766af368fc3cd5bbb3a934eb054e2abc3283.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20240802050832_60c87a1a569467f65bab8cfe0f05766af368fc3cd5bbb3a934eb054e2abc3283" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="fatalism and fatalities NT"> <figcaption>Illustration: SUBASH RAI</figcaption> </figure>  The interface between technology and safety is not properly understood by most Nepalis: electric shocks and cooking gas disasters kill hundreds every year. There were 2,267 reported electrical accidents in the past five years, 60% of them fatal.&nbsp; More than 2,000 people died on <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/highway-accidents-are-no-accident-in-nepal">Nepal’s roads and highways</a> in the past year, many times more than all natural disasters combined. “Accidents aren’t just accidents, they are linked to the governance of the country and reflect political failure,” says Vijay Lama, an A330 captain with Nepal Airlines. “We need serious, open and prolonged discussion between regulatory bodies, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/100-101-102-hh5uvzf9">service providers</a>, airline operators and pilots that look deep into the crux of the problem to come up with solutions.”&nbsp; Lama has been flying for nearly 40 years, logging 30,000 hours on various aircraft from Twin Otters and Boeing 757s to Airbuses.&nbsp; He says, “If flying is unsafe, I would be the first one to say so, but it is still the safest and most efficient mode of travel. Air crashes just get more media attention but after the news fades, we go back to doing what we did before.” The international community has taken note, mainly because their nationals are often involved. The European Commission (EC) has put all Nepal-based airlines on its <a href="https://transport.ec.europa.eu/document/download/3195fabb-7575-4db9-85b9-ec5a77b481aa_en?filename=air-safety-list-2024-05-30_en.pdf">Air Safety List</a>, and the Saurya crash will surely hurt the chance of being taken off the list.&nbsp; One of the measures the EC has pushed is to separate the regulatory and operational functions of the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN). Successive governments have not shown the political will to do so, and some doubt bifurcating CAAN will help since political interference will persist.&nbsp; Indeed, after every crash, CAAN sets up an investigation committee that issues recommendations. There is strict compliance, but only for a while. &nbsp; <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/keeps-happening">Read also: Keeps happening&nbsp;</a> Blame for <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/60-years-of-living-dangerously">making travel dangerous</a> ultimately has to do with a political culture that has failed to prioritise safety even when the country’s international image is tarnished, affecting the tourism industry. &nbsp; “We should look at each crash as a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/latest/why-missing-planes-are-so-difficult-to-find-in-nepal">systemic failure</a>,” explains Ajaya Dixit, whose physician father perished in a Pilatus PC-6 crash in 1962 sent to investigate a previous crash in Dhorpatan of a DC-3 flying to New Delhi from Kathmandu. Nepal’s ambassador to India and two high ranking US officials were among the 10 victims. &nbsp;&nbsp; He adds: “Modern technologies are all imported, they didn’t evolve in our society. We lack a larger technological ethos in their operation, management, maintenance. Our commitment to technological discipline is low, cutting corners is accepted.”&nbsp; Indeed, travel safety cannot be an island of efficiency when the entire <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/democracy-s-sidekicks">political machinery of the country</a> is dysfunctional. And like other sectors, there is a culture of impunity here too. Human rights campaigner Sushil Pyakurel sums it up: “No one is suspended after crashes. The bus accident is no one’s responsibility because a landslide caused it. Unless those responsible are held to account, accidents will keep happening, people will continue to die.” &nbsp;

Sonia Awale

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Fatalism and fatalities

<figure><img width="1000" height="1281" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110814114/636a54799c7e80680e0523afjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Illustration: SUBHAS RAI</figcaption></figure>Ever since <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=3167#.XWeXZuMzbIU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the Great Trigonometrical Survey</a> of India determined that the world’s tallest mountain was Peak XV located on the border between Nepal and Tibet, Everest has brought out the best and the worst in us. Nepalis have conveniently forgotten that the summit is on the border, and only the southwest face of Everest is in Nepal — the east and west faces are wholly in China. While the Tibetans had a name for the mountain (Chomolungma), the Nepali Sagarmatha was bequeathed to the peak only after it was determined to be the highest in the world.  When <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=3247#.XWeXquMzbIU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tenzing Norgay</a> and <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2018/01/13/commemorating-edmund-hillary/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Edmund Hillary</a> returned from Everest in 1953, Nepalis claimed Tenzing as our own, garlanding him profusely while ignoring Hillary. Dharma Raj Thapa composed a folk song that implied Tenzing had to drag Hillary to the summit. The 1996 disaster, when 15 climbers died on the mountain (eight of them on a single day, 11 May), made ‘<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/overkill-on-everest/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">overcrowding’ synonymous with ‘Everest’</a>. The bestseller Into Thin Air and the IMAX movie Everest created the hyper-reality of Everest being trampled by climbers and <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/cleaning-up-everest,1408" target="_blank" rel="noopener">buried in trash</a>.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/overkill-on-everest/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Overkill on Everest</a>, Damien Francois<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/review/adventures-in-robert-macfarlanes-aboveworld-and-underland/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Adventures in Robert Macfarlane's Aboveworld and underland</a>, Kunda DixitThe truth, as usual, is much more complicated. As a report in this issue concludes, while the number of climbers on 22 May this year might have been a factor in <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2016/06/13/10221/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">some of the fatalities on Everest, inexperience, altitude sickness and lack of oxygen were more significant</a>. There were 642 climbers, porters and guides from 43 countries on the summit this spring. Of them, 223 stepped on the top on 22 May alone. Nine of the climbers died on the south side this season, but news about the 10 more who died on other 8,000m peaks, where there were no significant crowds, was buried in the avalanche of news about Everest.Reacting to the media spotlight, the government on 7 June set up an expert committee to recommend reforms in the management of expeditions. Last week, the committee issued its report, which should address many of the problems.The committee carried out a post-mortem of Everest 2019, and found the main cause of the nine fatalities was the narrow weather window, inexperience and lack of fitness, altitude and medical conditions. One could argue that long queues contributed to altitude sickness and exhaustion, so crowding was a contributing factor. Summiteers say lack of experience at altitude and limited climbing skills were also causes for delays on the summit ridge on 22 and 23 May. Even though <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Silly-season-on-Sagarmatha,460" target="_blank" rel="noopener">‘traffic jams’</a> may not have been the main cause of fatalities this year, publicity about them did prompt the government to act.The committee’s recommendations, if enacted into law and enforced, could change Himalayan climbing. For example, only those who have been on a peak higher than 6,500m in Nepal will be allowed to climb a mountain above 8,000m, and mountaineers must have climbed at least one peak below 6,500m before they can climb a peak higher than that. This will not only ensure diversification away from Everest and benefit other parts of Nepal, but also guarantee that only experienced climbers get to scale mountains like Everest, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=18869#.XWeWQuMzbIU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kangchenjunga</a>, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=190#.XWeWZ-MzbIU">Makalu</a> or Manaslu.However, the committee appears to only have taken altitude into account and not the technical climbing grade of mountains. There is a vast difference between climbing the relatively easy Cho Oyu (8,021m) and the technically difficult Kusum Kangru (6,367m).The committee has also proposed that Everest climbers must show proof they have paid a Nepali agency at least $35,000. While this may lessen crowds, it will not be much of a deterrent against rich but inexperienced trophy hunters.The committee found that cheap expeditions did not stock up on enough oxygen, and that guides with little experience were a danger to clients. The solution to this could be a payment threshold and minimum experience for support crews. The criteria for liaison officers are also being changed, requiring them to stay at Base Camp till the end of expeditions, to thwart fake climbers and to do a trash inventory.As with everything else in Nepal, the proof of the pudding will be in the eating. Given endemic corruption and the likelihood of forged documents, it remains to be seen if these rules will be followed. But if implemented honestly, these reforms should clean up the mountain’s tainted image.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/most-days-its-not-so-crowded-on-mt-everest/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Most days, it's not so crowded in Everest</a>, Nepali Times<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/expeditions-brings-down-11-tons-of-mt-everest-trash/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Expedition brings down 11 tons of Mt Everest trash</a>, Bharat Bandhu Thapa<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/crowd-funding-from-mt-everest/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Crowd-funding from Mt Everest,</a> Ivan G Somlai<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/how-to-restore-the-lure-of-everest/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">How to restore the lure of Everest,</a> Doug Scott <h2>10 years ago this week</h2> Nepali Times <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/466" target="_blank" rel="noopener">issue #466 of 28 August-3 September 2009</a> drew attention to climate change, and warned that the Himalaya was warming faster than previously thought. <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=16255#.XWe4qOMzaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Editorial</a> 10 years ago titled ‘Climate Climax’ looked ahead at the 2009 Copenhagen Climate Summit:'Nothing we do (or don’t do) in Nepal will affect global temperatures. But whether or not we switch to renewable energy as the mainstay of our economy will determine whether we survive economically as a nation. Nepal needs to reduce its carbon footprint not to save the planet, but to save itself. As the world approaches Peak Oil and our petroleum import bill widens, our huge trade deficit with India, continued dependence on fossil fuel, and climate change will exacerbate all the economic, development and social challenges we already face. Our elected representatives, think-tanks and the climate experts in the bureaucracy must exert pressure on the politicians and persuade them to begin the switch to a hydro-economy. It’s not the ecology, stupid, it’s the economy.'<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/466"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110814114/636a547c9c7e80680e0523b0jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="500" height="771"></a>

Everest Postmortem

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131156/636a52509c7e80680e0522e9jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="787"/><figcaption>Pic: DIANA BARR</figcaption></figure>David Williams grew up in rural Australia among all kinds of creepy crawlies. He kept lizards and snakes as pets, even venomous ones. He has been bitten six times, but that has not put him off research into finding a cheaper and more effective anti-venom to treat bites.Williams now heads the Global Snakebite Initiative and has been helping in <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=17330#.XULEUvIzbIU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">snakebite</a> management in Cambodia and Papua New Guinea. He is in Kathmandu for the first international conference on snakebite in Nepal this weekend, and spoke to Nepali Times.Read also: <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=30833&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">HISS</a>, Sonia AwaleNepali Times: Why hold a snakebite conference in Kathmandu?   David Williams: One of the main reasons the conference is being held here is that Nepal has got a lot of expertise, doctors who are very interested in research and want to fix the problem and initiatives like the motorcycle volunteers. There are many diseases that have no cure or treatment, but snakebite is something that is eminently treatable, nobody should have to die from it. So with a reasonably modest amount of investment by health ministries and supporting organisations, we can solve the problem of snakebite. Nepal has all the elements necessary to tackle its snakebite epidemic, and save lives.What are the main challenges?There is a solution to <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/Buzz-a%20pound-of-prevention,575" target="_blank" rel="noopener">snakebite problems</a>, but it is largely a matter of investment. Production of anti-venom requires putting the money into establishing manufacturing facilities, having a proper quality control and a regulatory agency that is able to provide oversight of manufacturing. The same goes for collecting venom. So it is a matter of commitment, and spending the money to do it in the right way. The things that hospitals need to have in order to effectively treat snakebite patients are often the same types of medical consumables that are needed for a lot of other diseases. So if you have a strong health care system that is functioning well with the right drugs and treatment, then we are likely to achieve better outcomes.But are these <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/tips-for-surviving-snakebites,1471" target="_blank" rel="noopener">interventions</a> possible in Nepal? It is a lot easier and cheaper to prevent snakebite than to deal with consequences, so community education and awareness for behavioural change is probably the most important aspect. Another is having sufficient stock of effective anti-venoms. Countries have to ensure that reliable supply, and one way to go about is to ask for World Health Organization (WHO) assistance. The good thing is that there has been some strong research in this area with which Nepal should be able to take an initiative to be able to make anti-venom within the country and not rely so much on India. It is especially important to have addition supply of anti-venom this time of the year, when snakebite becomes an epidemic.The WHO wants to halve snakebite deaths by 2030. Is this realistic? It is fairly easy to achieve and there is good evidence to back this up. In Ghana it was found that if you introduce effective treatment, train nurses and doctors who deliver the treatment, and educate the community to come to the hospital sooner, fatalities can be reduced by as much as 80% in a very short period. It took Ghana only 18 months. So I think having 12 years from now to <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=19557#.XULEV_IzbIU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cut the fatality</a> and disability by 50% is quite a reasonable target. At core it is about effective treatment, health workers who know how to give treatment and communities that prioritise getting that treatment.Is climate change pushing venomous snakes up the mountains? If the world keeps warming, yes. As the weather warms up here in Nepal with climate change, you will start finding venomous snakes in areas where they were never found before because it was too cold. Another aspect that can contribute is changes in the habitat. For example, with deforestation you create open habitats that a lot of venomous snakes, such as the cobras and the Russell vipers, actually find more conducive to their lifestyle.Read also:<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=17330#.XULEUvIzbIU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Snakebite!</a>, Buddha Basnyat<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/Buzz-a%20pound-of-prevention,575" target="_blank" rel="noopener">An ounce of venom</a>, Buddha Basnyat<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/tips-for-surviving-snakebites,1471" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Snakebite Survival,</a> Buddha Basnyat

“Snakebite is treatable,  no one need die from it.”

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

fatalities

Fatalism and fatalities

Everest Postmortem

“Snakebite is treatable, no one need die from it.”

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

Nepal election live results

Bells ring all over Nepal

The magic 138