<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141148/636d01db9c7e80680e0a364djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption></figcaption></figure>“Countries knock at our doors all the time for capital, as it is getting harder and harder to obtain development funds. We are holding $500 million for Nepal. We cannot wait forever. When will it be the right time for Nepal?”Fatema Z Sumar, Vice President of Compact Operations at the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) appeared mystified about why a country like Nepal that needs all the help it can get to develop its infrastructure, should be so hesitant about the grant her government is offering.Sumar was on the final day of her <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/mcc-row-rocks-nepals-ruling-coalition/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/mcc-row-rocks-nepals-ruling-coalition/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1631579093888000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHAfb7xioCyDtl5OJ53aqyeI5-LuA">four-day visit to Nepal</a> on Sunday, speaking at an engagement with opinion makers. There was a litany of questions from across the table, and Sumar sounded like someone who is getting somewhat jaded answering the same questions over and over again in Kathmandu.“No, the MCC is not part of the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/between-two-oceans/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/between-two-oceans/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1631579093888000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFfIGiI1YhN4TBrqt-_uVwcnhLEPg">Indo-Pacific Strategy</a> and there is no US Army involvement.”“This is a treaty between two countries and has gone through the Obama, the Trump and now the Biden administrations.”“In order to make this a treaty, the Nepal government wanted to ratify it through Parliament. So, we are waiting for that.”Sumar was a former assistant secretary for South and Central Asia at the US State Department before joining the MCC. Her family is Malaysian Indian, so she understands the region well, but she was hearing in Nepal some of the same political rhetoric that led to the Sri Lankans cancelling the MCC last year for being ‘against the national interest’.MCC makes three types of grants: compacts, threshold programs and concurrent compacts for regional investment. Nepal’s grant is a five-year compact agreement with the MCC that allows an eligible country to fund specific programs targeted at reducing poverty and stimulating economic growth.The concept of the MCC is to make US development assistance ‘smarter’, and to study a country’s bottlenecks so that catalytic investment can allow it to take an economic leap. A panel of Nepali and American experts concluded in 2017 that increasing hydropower transmission capacity and upgrading highways would be most cost-effective, at a time when the country was suffering 12-hour daily power cuts.When a country applies for a grant from the MCC, the board examines its performance based on 20 policy indicators, and selects based on policy performance. The MCC says its grants are given to country-driven and country-led investments and infrastructure priorities for achieving sustainable economic growth and poverty reduction, and Nepal qualified.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141148/636d01df9c7e80680e0a364ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="998"><figcaption>MCC vice president Fatema Sumar (third from left) with Prime Minister Deuba on Saturday at Baluwatar. Photo: PMO</figcaption></figure>So far MCC has approved $13.7 billion in compacts and $631 million in threshold programs worldwide. After Sri Lanka pulled out, Nepal is the only South Asian country on the list of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-millennium-challenge/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-millennium-challenge/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1631579093888000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHcCgQFuOb2-re-ZURkglqZhwDvTg">MCC-approved compacts</a>.“The $500 million we are holding for Nepal is money not given to other countries which need to get out of poverty,” said Sumar’s colleague Jonathan A Brooks at the interaction. Although Brown said he had no idea where the confusion about the MCC having a military component comes from, a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/knowing-whats-good-for-nepal/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/knowing-whats-good-for-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1631579093888000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHV-jTWUQwTz4eLLTh_R5gdfjVGwQ">comment by US Under Secretary of State David J Ranz</a> in 2019 that the MCC was indeed a part of the US <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/between-two-oceans/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/between-two-oceans/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1631579093888000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFfIGiI1YhN4TBrqt-_uVwcnhLEPg">Indo-Pacific Strategy</a> did a lot of self-inflicted damage.Sumar and Brooks fielded <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/post-truth-politics-in-nepal/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/post-truth-politics-in-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1631579093888000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEL3a5V092kNi8iXts-zWiYBTZWOA">other questions</a> that had become familiar to them during their stay in Kathmandu with answers like: the agreement with Nepal prohibits army involvement, security issues are totally for Nepal government to oversee, the compact has no provisions that contradict Nepal’s laws, the project is not above Nepal’s Constitution, and international law would apply to resolve any disputes.A major chunk of the $500 million MCC grant will go to build the Kathmandu-Hetauda-Butwal 400KV transmission line to distribute 3,000MW which will come on stream in the next three years from new <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/decentralising-hydropower/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/decentralising-hydropower/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1631579093888000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGKA68VJytSmPpVqeXiamgpi0kCgQ">hydropower plants</a>. The line will also connect to a high-capacity electricity corridor to Gorakhpur so Nepal can <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/mcc-row-damages-nepals-credibility/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/mcc-row-damages-nepals-credibility/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1631579093888000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEoVnLVfqbE4et0DScH8cbve0ffag">sell surplus monsoon electricity</a> to India in future.This week, the Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) signed an agreement with the state-run Power Grid Corporation of India (POWERGRID) for the Butwal-Gorakhpur cross border transmission line extension in anticipation of the MCC project being completed.Sumar has seen several changes in government after she started coming to Nepal for the MCC. Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba and his predecessor K P Oli were both in favour of the MCC, but other Communist partners in the ruling coalition are against it.As a descendant of an immigrant family herself, Sumar says she understands that poverty is not insurmountable, and can be prevented with the right government investment at the right time. She calls herself a “development diplomat”, and feels that economic growth built on better infrastructure would also bring Nepal stability.“The MCC will create many thousands of jobs for Nepalis at a time when the pandemic is creating losses of jobs and livelihoods,” she says, adding that when President John F Kennedy launched a major global drive to help developing countries in the early 1960s, Nepal was one of the first countries to receive the support.The criteria Nepal fulfilled to receive the MCC grant was its democratic polity, guarantees of basic freedoms, and protection of human rights. Sumar underlined the fact that the MCC would also help Nepal put renewable energy infrastructure in place that could be an example for a world coming to terms with climate change.The MCC project has become a victim of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/knowing-whats-good-for-nepal/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/knowing-whats-good-for-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1631579093888000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHV-jTWUQwTz4eLLTh_R5gdfjVGwQ">extreme political polarisation</a> as opponents to K P Oli used the MCC to unseat him, and now it threatens to split the ruling coalition. The anti-MCC rhetoric had been so effective in convincing the cadre and public that it is anti-national, that even supporters in Deuba’s Nepali Congress, Oli’s UML and other public figures and intellectuals are afraid to speak in favour.Social media is full of posts that say Nepal will become ‘another Afghanistan’ if Parliament ratifies the MCC. But now that Sumar and her MCC team has left, the ball is back in the court of the political class in Kathmandu to ensure that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/power-politics-delays-mcc-in-nepal/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/power-politics-delays-mcc-in-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1631579093888000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHlQppZeGXNXQbC5_D2GZNFz2URgw">Nepal has the capacity</a> to distribute the electricity it generates in future.

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MCC ball in Nepal’s court

<figure><img width="1286" height="1500" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141148/636d015a9c7e80680e0a3624jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Vice president of US Mellennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) Fatema Z Sumar arrives in Kathmandu on Thursday.</figcaption></figure>Fatema Z Sumar, vice president of the US Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), parachuted into Kathmandu on Thursday amidst a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/mcc-damned-if-we-do-damned-if-we-dont/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">firestorm of protest</a> against the project that threatens to divide Nepal’s coalition government.Together with her deputy Jonathan Brooks, Sumar over the next four days will be meeting Nepal’s top politicians who are for and against the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-millennium-challenge/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">$500 million grant project</a> designed to upgrade Nepal’s electricity grid and highways. The visit follows Sumar’s written response to concerns raised by Nepal’s Finance Ministry on 3 September regarding the grant. The main objective of the MCC is a 315km transmission line between Hetauda-Damauli-Butwal, important for the distribution of the 3,000MW of electricity that will be added to Nepal’s national grid in the next three years. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/from-the-nepali-press/why-there-is-no-foreign-investment-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Why there is no foreign investment in Nepal</a> , Nepali Times <img width="512" height="461" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141148/636d015d9c7e80680e0a3625jpeg.jpg" alt="">The discourse surrounding the MCC has been influenced by geopolitical rivalries between India and China on the one hand and between the US and China on the other, with Nepal’s political parties <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/knowing-whats-good-for-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">weaponising the project</a> to undermine each other.Indeed, support for the MCC by K P Oli was one of the issues raised by the five-party alliance that led to his ouster in July, after which <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/deuba-5/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Deuba took over as prime minister</a>.Two months later, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/what-is-delaying-nepal-cabinet-expansion/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Deuba is yet to complete government formation</a>,  and support and opposition to the MCC is now threatening to undermine his governing alliance. The MCC is such a political hot potato that it was not even listed in the coalition’s common minimum program last month despite Prime Minister Deuba being for it.However, critics including his main coalition partner Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoists and Madhav Kumar Nepal of the Communist Party of Nepal (United Socialist) view the project as part of America’s Indo-Pacific Strategy, and superseding Nepal’s Constitution.Sumar’s letter attempted to assuage both of these concerns, saying that the MCC is neither a part of America’s Indo-Pacific Strategy, nor is it not above Nepal’s Constitution. However, the response added that the points previously agreed upon would not be subject to amendments, which did little to quell the growing protest, including street demonstrations. The delegation led by Vice President Samar met with opposition leader K P Sharma Oli on Thursday afternoon to discuss the project, and is also set to meet with Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, Finance Minister Janardan Sharma and Energy Minister Pampha Bhusal (both Maoists). <figure><img width="1800" height="1200" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141148/636d01609c7e80680e0a3626jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>The delegation led by Sumar met with opposition leader K P Sharma Oli on Thursday afternoon. </figcaption></figure>The MCC compact has clauses requiring that it be ratified by Nepal’s Parliament, and that the project be completed five years after the work officially commences. Nepal had committed to ratifying the MCC in Parliament by September 2019, but the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/just-do-it/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">process has been deadlocked</a> by the feud in the ruling Communist Party of Nepal while Oli was prime minister.Lok Raj Baral, Nepal’s former ambassador to India, says that there has been unnecessary over-politicisation of the issue that has harmed Nepal’s international credibility."The opposition to the MCC seems to have been led by those in power who were also trying to stop the Arun III hydropower project," says Baral. “That the opinions of individual leaders dominate the discourse over official party decisions speaks to the selfishness of Nepal’s political leadership.”Former Prime Minister Oli backed the MCC after he took over from Deuba in 2017, but his main party rival Pushpa Kamal Dahal and dissidents from his own UML used provisions in the MCC that they saw as being anti-national <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/own-goal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">against Oli</a>.  <figure><img width="1800" height="1121" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141148/636d01639c7e80680e0a3627jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>Now, with Deuba being Prime Minister once again, the debate surrounding the MCC is likely to put a strain on his ruling coalition, made up of Dahal’s Maoist Centre and Madhav Kumar Nepal’s breakaway CPN (United Socialist) which are opposed to the project.On the other hand, the Nepali Congress and another coalition partner Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP)  seem open to ratifying the agreement in Parliament, but they do not have enough numbers in the House for it to be successful. Deuba has been sending feelers to the opposition UML to see if it will back the ratification in Parliament. For his part, Pushpa Kamal Dahal has been saying that the MCC is a conspiracy to break the ruling alliance. However, experts see Dahal’s position on the MCC as being inconsistent and opportunistic. He went along with the project, and then <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/power-politics-delays-mcc-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">weaponised it during his power struggle </a>with Oli."It should not come as a surprise to anyone if the ruling coalition collapses because of the MCC,” says political analyst Punaranjan Acharya, who adds that it is not Prime Minister’s Deuba’s intention to go against the agreement, but  that of the “so-called” communist parties in Deuba’s alliance. "The prime minister has tried to be transparent regarding the matter,” says Acharya. “The problem is with the double-dealing leaders of the coalition partners.”Former speaker Krishna Bahadur Mahara, who resigned from his position in 2019 following allegations of rape, said last year in a statement that he had been falsely accused for opposing the MCC. His successor Agni Prasad Sapkota has also blocked the MCC Compact for discussion on the House floor.Rastriya Janamorcha Party Chairman Chitra Bahadur KC, who is a member of Deuba’s coalition, says that the MCC will not be allowed to reach Parliament, and will not be ratified in the event it is presented before the House. “We continue to oppose the MCC, which is not even included in the coalition’s Common Minimum Program,” says KC.Constitutional expert Bipin Adhikari says it would be ironic if the MCC is not allowed to be presented before the people’s representatives in the House because of the political self-interest of the Speaker and other powerful political leaders.Other analysts insist that the political process surrounding the MCC should be moved forward in a way that the project is ratified in the House without breaking the coalition and without the party whip being applied.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/using-the-delay-in-mcc-to-dissect-it/">Putting the MCC in context</a>, Jeevan R Sharma and David Seddon

MCC row rocks Nepal’s ruling coalition

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Nepal is graduating to become a developing country on 24 November 2026 after half-century in the Least Developed Country (LDC) category. By 2030, the country hopes to transition to middle-income status.&nbsp; Everone from Prime Minister K P Oli have boasted that this is a matter of national pride, and will have a multiplier impact on trade and economy.&nbsp; But will it make any difference to the average Nepali? Not unless improved governance <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/why-invest-in-nepal">spurs investment and creates jobs</a>.&nbsp; Countries need to meet at least two of the three criteria in two consecutive triennial reviews to be eligible for graduation from LDC. Nepal has consistently met the thresholds for the Human Assets Index (HAI) and the Economic and Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) in 2015, 2018, and 2021. But Nepal was recommended for graduation before meeting the per capita <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-great-income-divide">Gross National Income (GNI)</a> threshold of $1,306. “A major implication of LDC graduation is the loss of preferential market access available through Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) and other arrangements,” explains economist Sameer Khatiwada. “But over two-thirds of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-doesnt-produce-its-2-biggest-export-items">Nepal’s exports</a> are to India, and the preferential market access to India is through a bilateral trade agreement. This has nothing to do with our LDC status.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250815060832_f5eabe7628a8cdf84f33b25d7cef3c4dc8913a26d8e5b253ea52a36e176b8a85.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20250815060832_f5eabe7628a8cdf84f33b25d7cef3c4dc8913a26d8e5b253ea52a36e176b8a85" data-rendition-name="original" width="640" height="470" loading="lazy" alt="LDC graduation "> </figure>  Furthermore, a provision under the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) allows Nepal to export to India duty-free if the items are at least 30% value-added. Nepali traders take advantage of this by re-exporting edible oils without meeting that requirement, falsely boosting Nepal’s exports.“ Following graduation from LDC, the value addition threshold might increase to 40%,” says Kalpana Khanal of the Policy Research Institute. “This is supposed to work to our advantage, because on paper value addition inherently means <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/staying-home-to-create-jobs">job creation at home</a>.” But Nepal’s exports to other major destinations will face <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-and-the-us-india-tariff-tiff">tariff increases</a> with the graduation. A South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics and Environment (SWATEE) study shows that while tariff increase in the US market is relatively low (see page 5) it is considerably higher in Europe. The International Trade Centre (ITC) in a 2022 study also estimated that graduation could result in a 4.3% decline in Nepal’s projected exports, but this is excluding the impact of changes in ‘rules of origin’ provisions in preference-granting countries such as the UK and Europe.&nbsp; Nepal’s top export to these preference-granting countries is <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=1482">carpets</a>, and will not be impacted, but other items such as textiles and apparel will be heavily affected due to higher cost of production. The impact will felt mostly by small and medium enterprises which represent the largest share of exports to LDC-specific preference-granting countries. As for the service exports, Nepal never really made use of the World Trade Organization’s LDC services waiver anyway, hence the effect will be minimal, if any. There is also concern about Nepal’s graduation at a time when the global economy is topsy-turvy, amidst <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-point-in-us-india-relations">tariff wars and conflicts</a>. This affects Nepalis abroad directly and may impact <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/more-remittance-more-than-remittance">remittances </a>which hit $11 billion in 2024. In comparison, Nepal only received $350 million in foreign loans and grants last year.&nbsp; Tourism arrivals have finally reached pre-pandemic levels, but bad publicity about pollution, poor infrastructure and bureaucratic hurdles hinder further growth. Manufacturing continues to struggle, while hydropower and the IT sector have taken off.&nbsp; “Look at data -- <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/tourism-needs-a-new-push">tourism arrivals</a> are up, spending is up, IT exports are up, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/why-nepal-needs-to-restore-ev-tax-subsidy">EV sales </a>are up, Europe still needs 85-90 million skilled workers. We are sitting on $16 billion in cash reserves, our balance of payment, foreign exchange reserve, tax to GDP ratio, credit flow are all positive, we have to build on these factors,” says Sujeev Shakya of the Nepal Economic Forum. He adds: “Our mindset creates negativity to promote rent-seeking behaviour, but this cynicism will go away after 2026 with LDC graduation. We must deal with data, look at trends, and projects which will bring in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/from-the-nepali-press/why-there-is-no-foreign-investment-in-nepal">international investments</a>.” Khanal agrees that investment is not dependent on<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/backside/Nepal-not-the-least-developed-country,306"> LDC status</a>. The factors that that affect investment are policy stability, a strong legal framework, market potential and ease of doing business. She adds, “That is where our focus needs to be, and we need to retain <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/diaspora-diaries/migrant-worker-returns-to-create-work-at-home?fbclid=IwAR09xJfsClCwn8uRVAmz28CU658vdKpuyDwB_b1sNlvKtAFFnSldnA0JS2g">Nepalis with jobs at home</a> for our sustained growth.” After 2026, financing support from donors and aid agencies could be affected and Nepal will no longer be able to access Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) to adapt to the impacts of climate change. But the Global Environment Fund and Green Climate Fund will still be available.“ LDC status does not determine bilateral development aid, that is usually driven by broader <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/looking-beyond-two-boulders">geopolitical considerations</a>,” says Sameer Khatiwada. “The World Bank and Asian Development Bank, which provide concessional loans to Nepal, it is determined mainly by per capita income, not LDC status.” &nbsp;However, Nepal may lose some concessional terms for loans. Nepal is currently a lower-middle-income country as per the World Bank in the bracket for GNI between $1,036 and $4,045. The country is already receiving more loans than grants and in July the World Bank increased its interest rate on loans by 100% from 0.75 to 1.5%. “All this means that the impact of LDC graduation for Nepal might not be as earth-shattering as some tend to think. Countries that have recently graduated, such as Botswana and the Maldives, have shows that graduation is just a step in a country’s development path,” says Khatiwada. Sujeev Shakya also sees the glass as half full, explaining that LDC graduation is just a stepping stone if Nepal has the right policies in place. He adds, “Nepal’s biggest advantage is our<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/investing-in-people"> working age population</a> and we have investments coming in. These aided by how adaptive we are as a society are the very foundations on which Nepal will grow.”

Not poor, but not rich

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.

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