Public health expert Aruna Uprety was flying from Dolpo to Nepalganj a few years ago when she struck up a conversation with a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/1-in-2-pregnancies-in-nepal-unintended">pregnant woman</a> who told her she was travelling to the city for a doctor’s appointment.&nbsp; Uprety’s initial happiness at learning that rural women were actively seeking <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/latest/3-nepali-mothers-still-die-daily-at-childbirth">prenatal care </a>turned into shock when the woman, who had two daughters, said she would terminate her pregnancy if the ultrasound showed a female foetus.&nbsp; When Uprety recounted her conversation with nurses at a hospital in Nepalganj, they did not bat an eyelid, telling her that pregnant people came from all over the Karnali to get ultrasounds for <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-s-missing-girls">sex-selective abortions</a>. &nbsp; This example, multiplied tens of thousands of times every year, is visible in the 2021 census data: there are significantly more male than <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/fatal-discrimination">female live births</a> in Nepal, giving the country one of the highest sex ratio at birth (SRB) in Asia. SRB indicates the number of boys born for every 100 baby girls. Globally, biological birth ratios are slightly biased towards male babies, and the theoretical or expected SRB is 105 males per 100 female live births. Higher values indicate much higher numbers of newborn boys than girls.&nbsp; According to the 2021 census, Nepal has a SRB of 112 males per 100 females, up from 106 recorded in the 2011 census. &nbsp;Dhanusa district bordering India has the highest SRB (133) while Mustang in the trans-Himalaya has 92 boys per every 100 girls born. The Madhes (118) has the highest SRB among Nepal’s provinces.&nbsp; Experts are worried that this trend could lead to long-term <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepals-demographic-window-is-closing">demographic disparities</a>, and say there has not been enough research into the drivers of this imbalance. “Nepal’s skewed <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/future-proofing-nepal-s-population-strategy?s=04">sex ratio</a> at birth is one of the most concerning demographic issues,” says Yogendra B Gurung of the Central Department of Population Studies at Tribhuvan University.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025030704034_17e79dea4ed359ae991a9be6a1c765538cebd2640dcb3075b7175ae3055404ac.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="2025030704034_17e79dea4ed359ae991a9be6a1c765538cebd2640dcb3075b7175ae3055404ac" data-rendition-name="original" width="926" height="385" loading="lazy" alt="The slaughter of our daughters NT"> <figcaption>Source: 2021 NEPAL CENSUS </figcaption> </figure>  Contributing to this is gender-biased sex selection (GBSS) and other forms of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/quality-of-equality-for-women">discrimination and inequality </a>enabled by <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/perpetuating-patriarchy-in-nepal">Nepal’s patriarchal</a>, socio-cultural, traditional structures.&nbsp; Gender-biased sex selection determines the outcome of a pregnancy, and can be postnatal or prenatal. Postnatal sex selection can be due to neglect, differences in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/covid-undermines-nepals-mother-child-gains">maternal nutrition</a> and child care, or infanticide of a girl child.&nbsp; Prenatal gender-biased sex selection occurs prior to or during conception, either by the selection of a particular sex during <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/freezing-a-future-family-IVF-embryo-surrogacy,3881">fertilisation</a>, or through termination of pregnancy when the sex of the foetus is determined. Across the world, GBSS is an outcome of a preference of sons over daughters.&nbsp; The census result proves that &nbsp;Nepalis are increasingly opting for sex selection and consequently, sex-selective abortions through the use of prenatal diagnostic technologies to determine the sex of a baby, even though the law prohibits clinics from revealing the sex of a foetus.&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/saving-nepali-mothers-on-mother-s-day">Saving Nepali mothers on Mother’s Day</a>, Naresh Newar “There are three detriments that enable gender-biased sex selection: our socio cultural norms, and the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/female-foeticide-to-football">preference of sons over daughters</a>, and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/tech-and-transition-in-nepal">the availability of technology</a> that is able to determine the sex of a foetus,” explains Apekchya Rana Khatri at the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) in Kathmandu. “We analysed the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-s-demographic-dividend">social and demographic trends</a>, and identified Nepal as one of the countries where GBSS prevails based on the prevalence of these three issues.” Many Nepali families prefer sons because they are still expected to solely carry forward the family lineage, provide economic benefit to the family and actively engage in society, take care of their parents in their<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/home-sweet-home-for-older-nepalis"> old age</a>, perform <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-quake-survivors-wait-for-kin-to-return">funeral rites</a>, and gain inheritance.&nbsp; Imbalanced sex ratio at birth is not just a problem in Nepal. The sex ratio at birth of countries in the region, including India and China reflect socio-cultural norms that ascribe more importance to boys. &nbsp; Sex ratio at birth in India (108) is mostly due to cultural factors, while in China (112) it is a legacy of the previous One Child Policy. The imbalance has actually begun to improve in the past years in both countries. However, in Nepal, the opposite has happened: SRB rose from 104 in 2001 to 106 in 2011 to 112 in 2021.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025030704034_824d9daf1f2b630bcdae6edba2a14733593c119f87b2fb5426103a8121907309.jpg" data-media-id="editor_17" data-image-id="2025030704034_824d9daf1f2b630bcdae6edba2a14733593c119f87b2fb5426103a8121907309" data-rendition-name="original" width="894" height="542" loading="lazy" alt="The slaughter of our daughters NT"> <figcaption>Source: 1952/54-2021 NEPAL CENSUSES</figcaption> </figure>  The 2021 census also shows that sex ratio at birth in Nepal’s urban municipalities is 114 -- higher than rural municipalities (109). This is in contradiction to the belief that <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=4975">discrimination against girl children</a> is less among educated and better off city dwellers than in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/this-is-how-to-upgrade-nepals-rural-health">rural areas</a>. &nbsp; Better <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepalis-are-dying-because-they-are-poor">access to healthcare institutions</a> might also account for higher sex ratio at birth in urban areas. In the case of Madhes Province, access to both legal and unsafe abortion across the border could be why SRB is higher. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/1-in-2-pregnancies-in-nepal-unintended">1 in 2 pregnancies in Nepal unintended</a> “Nepal’s sex ratio at birth shines a light on the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/coping-with-patriarchy">deeply-entrenched patriarchy in our country</a>,” says demographer Gurung. “And it also clarifies the misconception that traditional and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/ill-fitting-in-nepali-society">conservative mindsets</a> and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-s-caste-struggle">discriminatory practices </a>exist exclusively in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-s-rural-lifeline">rural communities</a>, because the data points to educated, economically well off people engaging in practices like GBSS.” Historically, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/nepal-s-remittance-villages">agrarian societies</a> like Nepal preferred to have many sons because men were considered better suited to physical work. Today, many Nepalis hope to have male children so that they can <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/making-overseas-migration-better">migrate overseas</a>, earn livelihoods, and support their families.&nbsp; “Although evolving political, legal, and social systems have given women more robust rights to education and rights to inheritance, and ensured their participation in the workforce, the implementation of interventions is another matter,” says Aruna Uprety. “Our cultural and especially <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/tolerating-nepal-s-religious-tolerance">religious practices</a> have continued to reinforce gender inequality.” Experts say they have been unable to collect relevant data from <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/is-free-health-care-possible-in-nepal">medical and health facilities</a>.&nbsp; “Even when we identify the issues contributing to sex-selective practices, we are largely working on assumptions because there is no officially-backed data about sex-selective abortions through legal channels or unofficial and unsafe providers,” says Won Young Hong, UNFPA Country Representative for Nepal. “We need to obtain more data from <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/healthcare-moving-from-hospitals-to-homes">hospitals</a>, clinics and the many other service providers so that we can conduct more extensive research.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025030704034_a8bfc315b27a4db412109a547d483e2d3b571957a67c6bf4e5e3cbd6debe403b.jpg" data-media-id="editor_31" data-image-id="2025030704034_a8bfc315b27a4db412109a547d483e2d3b571957a67c6bf4e5e3cbd6debe403b" data-rendition-name="original" width="925" height="584" loading="lazy" alt="The slaughter of our daughters NT"> <figcaption>Source: 2021 NEPAL CENSUS</figcaption> </figure>  Another dimension to sex determination, selection, and sex-selective abortion is that it is not always a pregnant person’s choice to <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=5884">terminate a pregnancy</a> if they find their child is female. Studies at local levels have revealed that husbands and mothers-in-law play pivotal roles in decision-making regarding prenatal sex determination. Nepal’s decreasing total fertility rate also contributes to a warped sex ratio at birth. Two decades ago, Nepal’s total fertility rate was 4.6, today a Nepali mother on average gives birth to only 2.1 children -- which is at replacement level. And since Nepalis are having fewer children, especially if they plan to have only one child, they want to make sure they have a son. Studies by the Center for Research on Environment Health and Population Activities (CREHPA) show that while neither women nor men have a preference for the sex of their child during the birth of their first child, having a female child first will lead to a preference for sons from the second birth, the preference increases in subsequent birth orders.&nbsp; Although Nepal’s sex ratio at birth is skewed towards boys, the country has more women than men, as differences in lifestyles contribute to a higher male mortality rate. The 2021 census shows that Nepal’s sex ratio is 95.6 males per 100 females. However, the male to female ratio from ages 0-19 has gone from 102 in 2011 to 107 in 2021, mainly due to rising sex ratio at birth. In the coming decades, the number of females above age 19 will decline.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025030704034_36447ddf5354ec42a8fdf566ba8ee1d0c8fc0c6b0fae798d2cc49beaa04d5c6d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_33" data-image-id="2025030704034_36447ddf5354ec42a8fdf566ba8ee1d0c8fc0c6b0fae798d2cc49beaa04d5c6d" data-rendition-name="original" width="852" height="679" loading="lazy" alt="The slaughter of our daughters NT"> <figcaption>Source: 2021 NEPAL CENSUS</figcaption> </figure>  The number of males under 20 being higher also proves that gender-biased sex selection has been going on in Nepal for at least the three decades, says Gurung.&nbsp; “Nepal’s sex ratio at birth could indicate a larger demographic shift in the long run where the male population outnumbers the female population,” he adds.&nbsp; This would in turn have an impact on fertility, male-female partnerships and marriage dynamics, the work force, and Nepal’s existing social structures as a whole. In particular, a population significantly skewed towards males might make women and girls more vulnerable to abuse, sexual exploitation and assault, trafficking, forced marriages, and other serious crimes, say experts.&nbsp; Studies have also found that birth registration right after the birth of a child is not common in Nepal, and some couples register the birth of sons and ignore daughters, which may be reflected in fewer recorded female live births.&nbsp; Cultural norms and practices do not change despite laws, and Nepal needs to do much more to change societal values, protect, and educate its women and girls. UNFPA, for example, in 2021 supported the Ministry of Health and Population to draft the first-ever national strategy to address gender-biased sex selection, its implementation already in place. The agency's Ruparantan program also equips adolescent girls with practical skills and knowledge on gender equality and decision-making.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250307040328_777fae9a19465a149ba0fd0b41cd0e6dde0d4a0f46128bf2a39191974a4b6cf2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_34" data-image-id="20250307040328_777fae9a19465a149ba0fd0b41cd0e6dde0d4a0f46128bf2a39191974a4b6cf2" data-rendition-name="original" width="1828" height="1254" loading="lazy" alt="The slaughter of our daughters NT"> </figure>  But for this to work, new policies and political will to implement them by the government are critical. Strong regulatory mechanisms to monitor prenatal sex determination technologies will also be required. In addition, Nepal needs systems in place to guarantee safety and security of its ageing population, so that there are less financial and socio-cultural pressure on sons to take care of their families, and less incentives for parents to opt for male children. &nbsp; “The state needs to prepare to provide adequate services for the elderly population, especially with the anticipation of the growth in ageing population,” says Won Young Hong at UNFPA.&nbsp; India has stricter regulations over the use of prenatal diagnostic technologies to determine the sex of a baby, as well as rigorous campaigning across state and national levels like the Beti Bachao Beti Padhao program that have helped address the country’s declining female births.&nbsp; Nepal also needs to address the drivers of its skewed sex ratio at birth while safeguarding the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/support-for-reproductive-health-of-nepali-women">reproductive rights of women</a> and the right to safe abortions.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025030704034_2631b558d26c555d1d2944e6837fd6447cad40da7ae5a1685c3c0ec44d895f5d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_36" data-image-id="2025030704034_2631b558d26c555d1d2944e6837fd6447cad40da7ae5a1685c3c0ec44d895f5d" data-rendition-name="original" width="637" height="696" loading="lazy" alt="The slaughter of our daughters NT"> <figcaption>Sex ratio at birth (2021) in selected Asian countries. Source: OUR WORLD IN DATA</figcaption> </figure>  Access to these services have contributed significantly to lowering the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/why-has-progress-in-saving-women-s-lives-stalled">maternal mortality rate</a>. Abortions are important for medical emergencies, for <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/justice-eludes-many-rape-survivors">survivors of sexual assault</a>, for <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/no-conceivable-reason-for-unwanted-pregnancies">family planning</a>, and to ensure the right of women to choose what to do with their own body. “Safe abortion is a right, and cutting off access to it will not stop gender-biased sex selection,” says Aruna Uprety. “Legality has no bearing on people’s decisions-- women were getting abortions in private facilities across Nepal and India even when it was not yet legal.” What is needed is a multi-sectoral approach that addresses existing socio-cultural norms, what <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-goal-is-empowerment-and-independence-of-women">women need to be empowered</a> and linked to jobs, as well as policies that promote women and girls, giving them <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/sky-is-the-limit-for-nepal-s-women-scientists">opportunities</a>.&nbsp; Adds Uprety: “Socio-cultural interventions are just as important as legal and policy ones, and we cannot address society’s preference for sons unless we look critically at our patriarchal cultural practices. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/no-state-for-women">Gender discrimination</a> is a cross-cutting issue.” &nbsp; This article is brought to you by <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/" target="_blank">Nepali Times</a>, in collaboration with <a href="https://inpsjapan.com/en/" target="_blank">INPS Japan</a> and <a href="https://sgi-peace.org/" target="_blank">Soka Gakkai International</a>, in consultative status with UN ECOSOC.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250307140328_30c3782f9c09219bf1c249b51483a3cfb7a53a06d117d2aebd23ca7080d12758.jpg" data-media-id="editor_46" data-image-id="20250307140328_30c3782f9c09219bf1c249b51483a3cfb7a53a06d117d2aebd23ca7080d12758" data-rendition-name="original" width="680" height="103" loading="lazy" alt="SDG logo"> </figure>

Shristi Karki

original

674x448

610x380

500x500

400x266

400x240

400x203

301x200

1250x600

1084x550

thumbnail

viewImage

The slaughter of our daughters

Nepali Times: What are the main demographic trends that will affect Nepal in the next 30 years? Won Young Hong: There are two major demographic trends we see on the horizon in Nepal in the next 30 years. The first of these is the age of the population. We expect fertility rates to continue to decline, as in many other countries in the region. It dropped from 4.6 children per woman in 1996 to 2.1 in 2022. This indicates a shift towards smaller family sizes in Nepal.&nbsp; The working-age population between 15-64 years is 64.6%, and this will peak in 2051 at 69.4% before starting to decline to 66.7% in 2061. At the same time, the proportion of people aged 60 and above increased from 7.6% in 2011 to 9.0% in 2021.&nbsp; The UN projections estimate that the share of the elderly population will continue to grow in the next few decades until one in five people (22.4%) are elderly in 2061. The second major demographic trend relates to migration, both within Nepal and overseas. According to the 2021 census, around 2.2 million Nepalis were living abroad in 2021. This trend is likely to continue as most young people seek opportunities abroad. Internal migration is also a major trend.&nbsp; Between 2011 and 2021, the population share in the Tarai increased from 50.3% to 53.6%, while in the hills, it decreased from 43% to 40.3%, and in the mountain region, it declined from 6.7% to 6.1%.&nbsp; There is significant internal migration from rural to urban areas in search of better job opportunities and improved living conditions, leading to rapid urbanisation. By 2021, about 27.1% of the population resided in urban areas, up from 22.3% in 2011, while the share of the population living in peri-urban areas remained similar at around 39%.&nbsp; The share of the rural population declined from 38.5% to 33.2% during the same period. Urban areas, especially the Kathmandu Valley, have seen significant population growth, while over half of rural municipalities have seen negative growth. Provincial capitals like Biratnagar and Janakpur have seen population surges. Current trends indicate a rising share of the urban population and a shrinking rural population in the future. How can Nepal avoid the mistakes of some other Asian countries in responding to low fertility? It is an important question, and there are no fixed answers because each country is unique in many ways. Low fertility levels are a global trend, and no single country has managed to reverse this through policies despite a variety of initiatives being introduced. There are many lessons to be learned.&nbsp; It is clear that policies with an exclusive focus on the reproductive function of women with cost-based financial support without addressing structural issues affecting reproductive decisions made by men and women are largely unsuccessful.&nbsp; It is important for Nepal to analyse the issues and develop a context-driven and evidence-based approach to responding to the needs of people. Generally, policy is most effective in supporting people's choices when it responds to the diverse needs of individuals.&nbsp; For example, it is crucial to recognise the impact of the disparities between paid employment and raising children and close that gap with financial support for families with limited incomes. At the same time, employment needs to support women and men with children so they can balance family life and activities with work. Less rigid 9–5 working hours and accessible and high-quality childcare support are just a few of the measures that can help.&nbsp; Employers need to be encouraged to recognise that people with children in the workplace have needs and that there are systemic barriers for parents that have wider social impacts. These can be broken down with greater accommodation of the diversity of preferences of adults as to their choices of when and how many children they want to have.&nbsp; Policies need to create family and child-friendly societies focused on the health, education, and well-being of children and families at large to be successful. Public spending is another such tool, with levels of public funding for families closely linked with period fertility rates as well as cohort family size. There also needs to be individual choices available including in relation to sexual and reproductive health and rights and family planning.&nbsp; There is no one-size-fits-all solution. UNFPA is encouraging this kind of learning and knowledge sharing across countries because there is a huge increase in countries with declining populations, and we believe there are important lessons to be shared across the region and the wider globe. And it is imperative that policies be developed now rather than in a reactive manner.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240714020756_22823ab3f792d6bcc5169b6912021be51006b65c1dda95771fbed1293fccdf6f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20240714020756_22823ab3f792d6bcc5169b6912021be51006b65c1dda95771fbed1293fccdf6f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1060" height="1500" loading="lazy" alt="Won Young Hong UNFPA"> <figcaption>Photo: UNFPA ASIA</figcaption> </figure>  How serious is the anomaly in male: female ratio in Nepal? I would say any population anomaly has serious impacts. Nepal exhibits a skewed sex ratio at birth, with 112 boys born for every 100 girls, according to the 2021 census. This is higher than the biologically normal range of 102 to 107 males per 100 females, indicating potential sex selection practices. The disparity is particularly pronounced in Madhes province, where the sex ratio at birth is 118, compared to the lowest ratio of 106 in Kosi province.&nbsp; This imbalance is concerning as it mirrors trends seen in countries like China (112) and India (108), where cultural preferences for male children have led to significant gender imbalances. The preference for male children can have long-term social impacts, including an imbalance in the population structure related to gender disparity and discrimination.&nbsp; This might include a decline in marriages and partnerships, which can further increase the risks of human trafficking, gender-based violence, and other forms of harm. Nepal needs to identify the underlying drivers and address them with appropriate policy measures. In countries where over the long term there was this kind of imbalance, we see challenges, including a shortage of domestic labour in the workforce, a rapid reduction of fertility levels, and very few tools to reverse these trends. How are population dynamics, gender relations, migration and dropping fertility rate impacting Nepal’s population? The large proportion of the population that is young can potentially bring an enormous demographic dividend with investments in education, healthcare, and infrastructure. There is, however, a limited time window to seize this opportunity of about 30 years, when the population dynamic momentum will reverse as the lower rates of fertility start to impact working age groups and the percentage of the elderly will continue to increase.&nbsp; As the population ages and the proportion of young to old reverses, profound policy-level challenges arise. To take advantage of the window of a demographic dividend, targeted investments that directly benefit young people, including girls, need to be made now while fully implementing a wider range of socio-economic initiatives at all levels in line with the national development vision. We are seeing some really key results in Nepal’s legal framework and policies, including special measures to promote women in public life. At the same time, gender inequality remains a significant challenge, with persistent disparities in public and private spaces.&nbsp; Such persistent gaps, combined with social and economic factors like rising living costs, education costs for children, and childcare costs, will continue to discourage young women and men from having children.&nbsp; For that to happen, there needs to be a family-friendly environment for young people, women and men, to pursue a family life that includes raising children at home and being balanced with the workplace.&nbsp; This brings me on to the second part of your question on migration. The impact is, of course, profound. As people move abroad or to cities, the population landscape changes. If the large numbers of people overseas decide not to return, it will definitely contribute to the low fertility trends in the medium to long term. Equally, as people move to cities from rural or remote areas, there is a huge risk of leaving these areas barren and depopulated, leaving only an ageing population.&nbsp; These population flows require careful policy intervention and incentives to encourage people to invest in Nepal. It is welcome that the government is discussing ways to allow migrants to vote so their preferences can be reflected in the legislature and policymaking and future opportunities that encourage them to return to the country. UNFPA has been involved in helping the Nepal government plan for the demographic window? What have some of your main suggestions been? We do support the Government of Nepal in the area of the demographic window, and the first part of this relates to generating data and evidence that take into account demographic shifts and other megatrends in development policies and plans, as we recognise that without disaggregated, high-quality data and evidence, it will not be possible to achieve inclusive and sustainable development, including economic growth.&nbsp; Evidence is key to good decision-making, and the decisions made today can profoundly impact population dynamics in the future. As such, we support timely, high-quality, and disaggregated data generation that is essential for identifying those furthest behind. A second and related part supports the strategic use of evidence, including data, to improve understanding of the population and demographic structure of Nepal in actual policy decisions. We work with government decision-makers at all levels and civil society to translate data and evidence into pragmatic policies, such as the population policy, that respond to existing and future needs, including the sexual and reproductive health and rights of women and men.&nbsp; Population policy is very important to Nepal, and our experience across the globe shows that to future-proof population policy, it needs to respond in a holistic manner to the socio-economic changes we are witnessing and respond to the diverse needs of young people.&nbsp; To do this, it needs to examine a wide range of issues, including budgetary ones, affecting family decisions, and gender inequality. It is critical for Nepal to expand its understanding of population issues and build an integrated planning framework to respond to the new population trends.

Future-proofing Nepal’s population strategy

https://youtu.be/VaSUaALct0oParvati Thapa, 39, looks lost as she wanders into the district hospital in this isolated northwestern corner of Nepal. She and her husband have walked a whole day to get here, and they just found out she is 19 weeks pregnant.Thapa already has three children, and after they were born she lost four sons one after another. After her menstruation stopped, she suspected menopause but now knows she is pregnant for the eighth time.“My husband is away for months at a time, tending cattle in the mountains. Why should I use <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/implant-service-providers-take-contraception-to-nepals-poor/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">family planning</a> when we meet so rarely?” asks Thapa, who looks much older than her age.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=33648&amp;preview_nonce=5c7e9df60a&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Born in Nepal</a>, Sewa Bhattarai<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=33648&amp;preview_nonce=5c7e9df60a&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> </a>Like most women in the remote mountains, Thapa has never used contraceptives. <a style="background-color: #ffffff; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/migrating-males-and-population-decline/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Doing so carries a stigma for married women with migrant husbands</a>, and there are misconceptions about the different methods available. The result is that women suffer unwanted pregnancies, <a style="background-color: #ffffff; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/globe-rallies-to-aid-nepals-women,3841" target="_blank" rel="noopener">unsafe abortions</a> and end up with large families they are  unable to take care of.Nepal’s contraceptive prevalence rate is 53%, but in Bajura it is only 34%. Although this is a dramatic improvement from 20 years ago, it is still a long way from the government’s target of 75% contraceptive prevalence by 2030. The fact that the use of modern family planning methods has plateaued since 2006 points to futher deterrences.“The family planning rate is really low in Bajura because a lot of the men migrate to India for work,” says nurse Dhankala Khadka at Bajura District Hospital. “If the husband is away and the wife wants to use birth control, she is often questioned about fidelity and may be ostracised by her community. Even husbands do not support them.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108141124/636a58de9c7e80680e054862jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="970"/><figcaption>Parvati Thapa went to Bajura district hospital suspecting menopause, but found out it was her eighth pregnancy. Photo: MONIKA DEUPALA</figcaption></figure>Almost every woman who visited nurse Khadka on a busy day last month had the same story: their husbands were away and they did not use birth control.There were 804 abortions in Bajura in the past year, which Rohit Giri of Bajura District Hospital says is very high: “Most who come to us are married women with children, and the abortions are due to the lack of birth control, which leads to unwanted pregnancies.”<a style="background-color: #ffffff; letter-spacing: 0.15px;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/this-is-how-to-upgrade-nepals-rural-health/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">In Bayalpata Hospital</a> in neighbouring Achham district, the story is much the same — it performed 660 abortions in the past year. Bhawana Rawal, 33, has had two abortions at the hospital in the past five years and admits she does not used birth control.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/migrating-males-and-population-decline/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Migrating males and population decline</a>, Om Astha Rai“I already have two children, and do not need any more, but I got pregnant twice by accident,” she says. “I still do not want to use contraceptives in future.” Rawal did try a Depo-Provera injection once but says it made her bleed too much. Other women have the same complaint. For those who do not want to use a permanent contraception, many felt pills were a hassle to acquire and take every day, and IUDs hurt.“Unwanted pregnancies often lead to anaemia because women lose so much blood,” says Kalawati Setthi, a nurse at Bayalpata Hospital. Nearly 40% of women in Far-western Nepal were found in a survey to be anaemic — most of them pregnant and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/back-to-the-nipple-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">breastfeeding</a>.The government has put up posters in rural hospitals to encourage contraceptive use but at this rate, it is unlikely that the target of 75% contraceptive use will be reached.<h2>Demand, but no supply</h2>According to the Nepal Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) 2016, there is a 24% unmet need for family planning in Nepal — a quarter of women who need contraceptives are not using them. A report by Population Services international (PSI) Nepal found that unmarried youth aged 15-24 and married women aged 20-24 are the groups that use contraceptives the least.Married women like Parvati Thapa at a clinic in Bajura last month (left), normally tended to use contraceptives after their first child, and exposure to information about family planning through health workers and current users of family planning, as well as talking about it with husbands or relatives.Unmarried youth were likely to discuss family planning only with their sexual partners and most used condoms over other methods, which were bought and kept by the male partner. In contrast, married women visited health facilities themselves and chose the type of method they wanted.Unmarried youth, especially adolescents, had a higher unmet need and were more vulnerable to stigma associated with family planning. The report argues that the term ‘family planning’ only applies to married women and their plan to have children, whereas there are many contraceptive users who have no intention of having children, or use contraceptives to prevent sexually-transmitted diseases (STDs).Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/child-marriage-in-nepal-eloped-at-13-mother-by-17/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Child marriage in Nepal, eloped at 13, mother by 17</a>, Sewa BhattaraiWhen a woman goes to a public health facility for contraceptives, a register is filled out, which includes a column for ‘husband’s name’, which is another deterrent for unmarried women. Though the husband’s name is optional, there is no column for the wife’s name when it comes to male contraceptives like condoms or a vasectomy.A report by the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) about sexual and reproductive health says complications in pregnancy and childbirth are the leading cause of death among girls aged 15-19 in low-income countries like Nepal. Unwanted pregnancies also hamper women’s education and economic independence, and impact their family life, fuelling an intergenerational cycle of poverty and poor health.<h2>More choice for family planning</h2><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108141124/636a58e19c7e80680e054863jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="1029"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Although Nepal’s contraceptive prevalence rate has increased dramatically, from 7% in 1981 to nearly 60% today, social taboos, patriarchy and unavailability mean that many women still do not have access to birth control.It usually falls on women to take the initiative, since many men refuse to use condoms or get a vasectomy. Popular contraceptives used to be the pill or Depo-Provera, an injectable that needs refrigeration and must be taken at a clinic, but the dosage is high and the injection painful.Now, women like Shanti Adhikari, 43, in Chitwan, (pictured, right) who have always used Depo-provera for short-term contraception, have a new choice: Sayana Press.Read also: <a style="background-color: #ffffff; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/implant-service-providers-take-contraception-to-nepals-poor/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Implant service providers take contraception to Nepal's poor</a>, Rojita Adhikari<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108141124/636a58e49c7e80680e054864jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="524" height="531">Adhikari’s husband, who works as a security guard in India, will be coming home for Dasain, so she is at the health post in Nawalpur for her Depo-Provera progesterone hormone injection, which prevents pregnancy for three months.But auxiliary nurse midwife Sharada Rimal (pictured, left) tells her about Sayana Press. Its advantages over Depo-Provera are that it comes with its own small needle, the dosage is much smaller, it is less painful and can be self-injected.“Everyone in my neighbourhood comes to this health post for contraceptives, but no one told me about this new injection. The needle looks much smaller, I think I will go with this one,” says Adhikari, 43, as Rimal proceeded to inject her in the thigh.Sayana Press, a successor to Depo-Provera, is being launched in Nepal in two districts: Nawalpur and Sindhuli, by the reproductive health agency Ipas Nepal in coordination with the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID) and the Ministry of Health and Population (MoH). The drug has already been tried and approved, and is available for use in 40 European countries.What sets Sayana apart from Depo-Provera is the smaller dosage (104 mg compared to 150), it comes with its own needle, it can be stored at room temperature and is injected sub-cutaneously (just under the skin), rather than in the muscles like <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/from-nepali-press/Ftnp-the-curse-of-the-contraceptive,493" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Depo-Provera</a>.Injectable contraceptives are the most popular reversible contraceptive among women, for a variety of reasons. Adhikari says she does not like pills because she has to remember to take them every day, and, because of her age, she wants to be discreet about using them.While most other methods, like IUCDs, implants, condoms and pills, are visible and can be discovered by others, an injection leaves no traces. 52% married couples use contraceptives in Nepal: 8.9% use injectables, 4.6% are on pills, 4.2% use condoms, 1.4% use IUDs and only 3.3% use implants. 9.8% use other traditional methods. Some have gone for permanent contraception, with 14.7% preferring female Sterilization and 5.5% male Sterilization.“Depo-Provera has been in use for 50 years, but it was so popular and effective not much further research was done on it,” explains Lhamo Yangchen Sherpa of Ipas. “But WHO studies found that a much lower dosage was enough.”<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108141124/636a58e69c7e80680e054865jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="478" height="531">Health workers like Rimal confirm that Sayana Press is much easier to inject, more portable and less painful. Though it is self-injectable in some countries, in Nepal, where it has been undergoing trials in 14 health facilities of Nawalpur and Sindhuli since 5 September, it will only be administered by health professionals.Bhim Singh Tinkari of the MoH Family Welfare Division says that since 7% of pregnant women still die from unsafe abortions, making contraceptives easily accessible can save lives. Binod Bindu Sharma of the MoH links contraceptives to women’s choice and empowerment. “The availability of contraceptives is important for women’s rights, since it lets women choose when and how many children to have,” says Sharma, adding that the ministry is making Sayana Press available for free in health facilities.Lisa Honan, head of DFID Nepal, links contraceptives with women’s economic potential, adding that the country can make better use of women in the workforce if they have better choices of contraceptives. “DFID is committed to providing Sayana in any volume in Nepal until 2022 through UNFPA (the UN Population Fund), and would help Nepal scale it up all over the country if the results of the feasibility study are positive.”

Nepal far from hitting contraceptive target

Nepal’s fertility rate is going down even though contraceptive use has not increased<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221104141140/636517189c7e80680e02c252jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="933"/><figcaption>THE RIGHT SHOT: Health worker Januka Dhakal injects Depo-Provera on a woman at Rayale Health Post of Kavre district on Tuesday. With their husbands away, fewer women now want to use contraceptives. Sonia Awale</figcaption></figure>Sita Yonjan, 21, has a two-year-old daughter, and recently stopped using <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/from-nepali-press/Ftnp-the-curse-of-the-contraceptive,493">contraceptives</a> even though she is not planning to have another child. She says she doesn’t need her birth control implant anymore because her husband went away to work in Qatar two months ago.Yonjan visited a health post in Rayale village of Kavre to remove the birth control implant that she had inserted last year. The tiny device prevents births for five years, and does not need to be removed even when users abstain from intercourse. But many Nepali men want their wives to stop using contraceptives when they leave for overseas work."My husband thinks I could sleep with anyone if I use contraceptives in his absence," Yonjan frankly admits.An estimated four million Nepali men of reproductive age <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/The-cycle-of-migration,3230">work abroad</a>, and their wives back home generally see no need for contraceptive implants, preferring to use short-term methods like condoms, pills and injectables when their husbands come home on leave. Like Yonjan, those using IUDs and implants remove them as soon as their husbands go away again.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8lXkqrDtUOUDemographers say this explains the riddle about why Nepal's fertility rate has been going down despite contraceptive prevalence rate remaining low.When Nepal conducted its first-ever nationwide health survey in 1996, only 26% women were using modern contraceptives. Within ten years, it had nearly doubled to 44%, but has leveled off since. The contraceptive prevalence rate actually declined to 43% in 2016, when the last National Demographic Health Survey (NDHS) was conducted. Even so, the fertility rate that measures the average number of children per couple has been going down -- from 4.6 in 1996 to 3.1 in 2006 and 2.3 in 2016 (see graphs, overleaf).Demographers were initially puzzled by the drop in the fertility rate despite contraceptive use rate flatlining. But an analysis in 2013 suggested a correlation between male outmigration and contraceptive use. Another analysis is now underway, which will probably confirm the impact out-migration of men may be having on contraceptive use and fertility rate."If we consider only women who are married and living with husbands, we find a high contraceptive prevalence rate," explains Sharad Pathak, a demographer at the government’s Family Health Division. "This rate is low only because lots of women generally do not need contraceptives when their husbands are away."<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221104141140/6365171c9c7e80680e02c253jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="900" height="826">However, experts warn that Nepal’s declining fertility rate may not mean that population growth will reach replacement level -- one in every four married women still have an unmet need for family planning. A third of young married women aged 15-19 do not use contraceptives, making them more vulnerable to unintended pregnancies and unsafe abortion.Kristine Blokhus at the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) says Nepali women are aware of the benefits of having fewer babies, but face barriers in accessing contraceptives: "Health facilities often run out of contraceptive stocks, and there are not enough trained health workers to provide long-term contraceptives like implants and IUD."A 2016 UNFPA assessment showed most health posts provide only condoms, pills and injectables because of the lack of trained staff. Only one third of the facilities provide all five types of modern contraceptives including implants and IUDS. In most villages, women have to choose between oral pills or Depo-Provera, which they cannot use if there are side effects. Male or female sterilisation is available occasionally, and most women complain their husbands do not want to use condoms.With rising female literacy, the number of women opting for traditional family planning like withdrawal and the rhythm method instead of modern contraceptives is also going up. In 1996, only 3% of married women used such natural methods, now it is 10%. However, the NDHS 2016 showed that 62% women using the rhythm method to avoid pregnancy did not have an accurate knowledge about the ovulation cycle.Nepal’s target is to increase its contraceptive prevalence rate to 52% by 2020, but it may not meet that goal because of male migration, the preference for natural methods, and family planning programs being scaled back due to a drop in U.S. funding after the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/globe-rallies-to-aid-nepals-women,3841">gag rule under President Trump</a>. The United States has traditionally been the main supporter of family planning projects in Nepal, through organisations like Marie Stopes International that provide abortion services.Beth Schlachter, Director of Family Planning 2020, who recently visited Kathmandu to take stock of Nepal's progress, says: "The US gag rule might affect Nepal's family planning programs if organisations delivering safe abortion services here do not find other resources to supply contraceptives."Since Nepal is poised to become an 'aging' <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/need-to-prepare-for-ageing-society,3624">society by 2030 and an 'aged one' by 2050</a>, there is an even greater need to scale up family planning. For the country to reduce its dependency ratio and <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/editorial-reaping-demographic-dividend,3621">reap the demographic dividend</a>, many more women must have easier access to a much wider range of contraceptives.The mix mattersWhen Nepal launched its first population control campaign in the late 1960s, its population was only 13 million, it was growing at 3% per year because the fertility rate was nearly 6 children per couple. The only contraceptive choice women had then was to get their partners to use condoms. Most men did not like using them, and women did not have any control over reproductive health. The pill could have given women freedom to limit or space births, but they were scared of its side effects.Later, injectables like Depo-Provera and IUDs were introduced and today the government provides five types of contraceptives for free, and conducts health camps offering permanent family planning methods like male as well female sterilisation. But many other contraceptives like emergency pills and female condoms are available only in private clinics, and most rural women cannot use them even if they want to.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221104141140/6365171e9c7e80680e02c254jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="900" height="609">Beth Schlachter, Director of Family Planning 2020, says Nepal needs to provide a much wider mix of contraceptives in order to protect women from unintended pregnancies, unsafe abortions and maternal deaths: "What a 15-year-old girl needs might be different from what a 24-year-old mother of two children needs," she says. "If we try to address all of them with just one or two methods, we will not be very successful."Marie Stopes International is preparing a pilot program to test the acceptability of a new type of Depo-Provera called Sayana Press which can be injected at home and would suit women who do not like to visit health posts every three months for their Depo-Provera.Read also:<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/globe-rallies-to-aid-nepals-women,3841">Cutting the lifeline</a>,  Kate Ryan<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/editorial-reaping-demographic-dividend,3621">Reaping the demographic dividend</a>, Editorial

Migrating males and population decline

Frustrated with revolving door <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-geopolitics-of-nepal-s-politics">politics</a> with the same <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/tried-tested-and-failed">tired, tested and failed </a>leaders, Nepal’s cybersphere is harking back to the good old days when we had strongmen rulers like <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/jung-bahadur-s-destitute-descendants">Jang Bahadur Rana </a>or <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/king-mahendra-didn-t-pay-hunting-bill-in-us">King Mahendra</a>. The<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/inside-story-of-nepal-s-rana-dynasty"> century-long Rana oligarchy</a> ended 74 years ago this week, and the Shah kings airbrushed <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-insect-that-changed-nepal-s-history">Nepal’s history</a> to downplay their achievements and glorify their own dynasty. After <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/if-birendra-was-alive-nepal-could-still-be-a-monarchy">the monarchy</a> was abolished in 2008, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-role-of-rituals-in-royalty">the Shah kings</a> were similarly vilified. But Nepali society is mature enough to realise that the truth is not all black and white. Jang Bahadur may have usurped power in a ruthless coup, but he was a geopolitical strategist way ahead of his time. Whatever you may say about King Mahendra’s efforts in quashing <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/is-democracy-too-expensive-for-nepal">democracy</a> and pushing a unitary state, he defended <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/guest-editorial/nepal-should-recognise-palestinian-sovereignty">Nepal’s sovereignty</a> and projected its international image right through the sensitive Cold War period. Jang Bahadur in England is a new Nepali language book by journalist Gajendra Budhathoki about the visit in 1850 by Nepal’s prime minister to England and France, the first by a South Asian potentate. He met Queen Victoria and by all accounts was able to establish Nepal’s presence on the world stage. Historians have long mulled why a devout Hindu like Jang Bahadur would want to break the taboo and cross the Black Waters. Budhathoki recounts the incident upon his arrival at Southampton on 2 May 1850, when British customs officials tried to check the belongings of the Nepali entourage. Furious, Jang Bahadur threatened to sail right back to France if they opened any of the bags. Jang had three main reasons for his trip. Essentially he was on a spy mission to assess <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/a-forgotten-gurkha-rebellion-e8z403ab">British military</a> might to decide if it was worthwhile for Nepal to try to militarily take back territory ceded to British India in the Sugauli Treaty of 1816. So, Jang asked his perplexed hosts to show him cannon factories, artillery and naval yards. He even visited Woolwich Arsenal (now the Royal Arsenal) not once, but three times.&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/looking-back-at-the-1923-nepal-britain-treaty">Looking back at the 1923 Nepal-Britain Treaty</a>, Santa Gaha Magar Suitably impressed, Jang decided to be Britain’s BFF, and even rode down to Lucknow with 3,200 Nepali troops to rescue the British from the Sepoy Mutiny of 1857. As a reward, the British gave back the Tarai districts of Banke, Bardia, Kailali, and Kanchanpur (Naya Muluk). This close relationship continued with Jang’s descendants right till the time the British left India in 1947. Jang Bahadur was also fed up with the Governor General Lord Dalhousie in Calcutta who tended to bully Nepal, and wanted to build direct contacts with his bosses in London. The British told him Dalhousie was their man in India, and Jang should deal with him. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/the-way-we-were">Jang’s visit to France</a> does not get as much attention in the book, but he was also trying to gauge France’s strength and to see if its military was more powerful than Britain’s. At that time, France was Britain’s main rival and was trying to make inroads in India. At the Louvre, Jang Bahadur was drawn to exhibits reflecting French military prowess. Later, when he met Louis Napoleon III, he asked if he could see a parade of 900,000 troops to assess France’s military might.&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/nepal-france-ties-in-photos">Nepal-France ties in photos</a>, Reeti KC Freshly returned from <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/a-long-way-to-europe">Europe</a>, an emboldened Jang Bahadur Rana led Nepal in a war against Tibet in 1855 which ended with the Treaty of Thapathali a year later. This was the third time Nepal and Tibet had fought, the first time being soon after <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/guest-editorial/Prithvi-Narayan-Shah-a-visionary-leader,1102">Prithvi Narayan Shah</a> in 1788.&nbsp; The Qing Dynasty came to the rescue of Tibet, and while both sides claimed victory, the Sino-Nepalese War ended essentially as a stalemate with the Treaty of Betrawati.&nbsp; All of this is detailed in Axel Michaels’ book, Nepal: A History from the Earliest Times to the Present which is a recent English translation of his German Kultur und Geschichte Nepals published in 2018.&nbsp; Michaels is a Professor of Classical Indology and Religious Studies at Heidelberg University, and writes that Nepal mattered little to China. Proof of this is that while both Nepal and Tibet agreed to accept the suzerainty of the Qing emperor following the war, Nepal managed to retain its autonomy but Beijing asserted its control over <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/business/himalaya-to-lhasa">Lhasa</a>. And despite a clause in the treaty which stated, ‘if a foreign power attacks Nepal, China shall support Nepal’, China never did so during the1814–16 war with the East India Company.&nbsp; This practice has continued to this day. Aside from token petroleum shipments, Beijing did not help out Nepal during the Indian Blockade of 2015. Even though Nepali leaders have tried to play India off against China, the two do not find Nepal important enough to fight over and prefer to leave it as a buffer state between them.&nbsp; In that sense, Britain also did not press home its victory after 1816 and left Nepal alone. The malarial jungles to the south, rugged Himalayan terrain and the lack of marketable products (except soldiers) may have persuaded the traders at the East Indian Company that it was not worth the effort. There is a lesson from history here for Nepal: the country must look out for itself, and this requires deft diplomacy to understand what our giant neighbours really want and leverage it for our gain. This may require strategies like the ones made by Jang Bahadur and King Mahendra after all. Michaels is not a fan of either the Rana or the Shah dynasties. He says that although the Rana era is characterised as ‘a century of tyranny’, the description holds true for the Shah period as well.&nbsp; Michaels does not mince his words about Gurkha recruitment into the British and Indian Armies (another legacy of the Sugauli Treaty). He calls the mercenaries ‘cheap labour’ and Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘represents a continuation of the King-Brahmin alliance’. In fact, he goes at length to discuss how the Khas-Arya used ‘Hindu state’ to homogenise a country that couldn’t have been more diverse. But democracy has not served Nepal well either. Corruption, impunity and lack of transparency are rife. And so, Michaels asks if Nepal is a failed state. No it is not, but it is a fragile state. He leaves us with these parting words: ‘If Nepal succeeds in continuing down this road, preserving its ethnic and cultural diversity, leaving the ethnic populations with a certain degree of autonomy, while at the same time integrating them into political decision-making processes, and if it manages the reforms needed for land-ownership, labour, education, infrastructure, then the country can become a model for unity in diversity, even in the age of leveling globalisation.’&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250222070248_a32db0a1e39c4a3a5158af81bbcf927aeb96524bcbc6b41086a223685642b367.jpg" data-media-id="editor_17" data-image-id="20250222070248_a32db0a1e39c4a3a5158af81bbcf927aeb96524bcbc6b41086a223685642b367" data-rendition-name="original" width="1136" height="702" loading="lazy" alt="Jang Bahadur in England "> </figure>  &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250222070252_e2fa5309f10d36f963243c24ea06d7d354d3dfaf24c7ef283d70369fbeabd02e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_18" data-image-id="20250222070252_e2fa5309f10d36f963243c24ea06d7d354d3dfaf24c7ef283d70369fbeabd02e" data-rendition-name="original" width="1136" height="702" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal Book"> </figure>  &nbsp;

Nepal is not a failed state, but it is a fragile one

Throughout human history, civilisations have been named after the rivers along which they flourished: Indus Valley, Nile, Tigris-Euphrates. Many of these cultures later collapsed, partly because they could not manage their water needs properly. Three recent books about Himalayan rivers look at their history and geography, and how they nourished civilisations downstream. The rivers gave birth to the world’s major religions, their waters and the mountains from which they sprang were revered. Mythology and geology converge in High Asia. Mt Kailash is holy to the Hindu, Jain, Buddhist and Bon faiths as the centre of the world and the abode of the gods. Indeed, from its vicinity emerge Asia’s great rivers: the Indus and Sutlej, Ganga and the Yarlung Tsangpo (Brahmaputra) and Karnali (Mapcha Tsangpo).&nbsp; Legend has it that Kathmandu Valley was once a primordial lake drained by Manjushree who cut a mountain with his flaming sword. There is scientific evidence that the paleo lake was indeed emptied in stages starting 40,000 years ago after a tsunami unleashed by a major earthquake epicentred in Langtang. The Bon faith describes the Tibetan Plateau being pushed up from a roiling primeval sea, confirming current evidence about the orogenesis of the Himalaya. In local lore, supernatural lha (animal deities) and lu (serpents, naga) moved from sea to land, just as the theory of evolution explains the emergence of early amphibians and land creatures. In <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Rivers-of-the-Asian-Highlands-From-Deep-Time-to-the-Climate-Crisis/Gamble-Tan-Xu-Beavis-Maurer-Pittock-Powers-Wasson/p/book/9781032490595?srsltid=AfmBOopjkpgcN1_7t1jTI_Z1_27yRthBTbdHA15OWcE9Ge3S409jhUX3">Rivers of the Asian Highlands: From Deep Time to the Climate Crisis</a>, Himalayan historian <a href="https://scholars.latrobe.edu.au/rgamble">Ruth Gamble</a> and co-authors begin by tracing the genesis of the Himalaya, citing evidence that the Tibetan Plateau pre-dated the collision of the Indian and Eurasian plates 50 million years ago. Asia’s main rivers co-emerged with the mountains, their waters cutting canyons through rocks as they were uplifted. The gigantic pileup acted as a moisture trap for the proto-monsoon, the rain and ice sculpting peaks as they rose. But so strong were tectonic forces that the uplift outpaced erosion on the Tibetan Plateau. These dynamic processes are still at work, but in many places across High Asia there is a new factor at play: modern infrastructure (like haphazard road-building in Nepal) is increasing erosion faster than the uplift rate.&nbsp; ‘This is an example of human action overcoming tectonics,’ write the authors in Rivers of the Asian Highlands, in which the chapters look at Himalayan rivers from a planetary scale, their socio-cultural histories, to present-day engineering to regulate them. An ongoing dam-building spree and anthropogenic climate breakdown combine to bring about the most rapid change the Himalaya and their rivers have seen for millions of years. One example is the Medog Hydropower Station being built on the Yarlung Tsangpo at a bend on the Brahmaputra before it enters India. The river drops 2,000m within a 50km stretch, the gradient allowing it to generate 60,000MW — the biggest single hydroelectric plant in the world. Gamble and the authors of Rivers of the Asian Highlands highlight the Gravitational Potential Energy (GPE) of the Himalaya that allows falling water to be converted into electricity. But GPE also unleashes landslides, rockfalls, avalanches, Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) and Landslide Lake Outburst Floods (LLOFs), the risks posed by them magnified by climate change and seismicity. <blockquote>The Asian Highlands’ abundance of Gravitational Potential Energy (GPE) can support the region’s energy transition, but it needs to be produced in much less hazardous and less environmentally and socially impactful ways. The best means of doing this is through off-river, pumped-storage hydropower stations that back up solar and wind energy generators. Smaller projects such as this would also involve less risky tunneling and displacement.</blockquote> Rivers of the Asian Highlands: From Deep Time to the Climate Crisis by Ruth Gamble, et al. There is geological evidence that megafloods on Himalayan rivers are more responsible than mass wasting in weathering down the mountains. One big LLOF, for example, could ‘move 1,000 times more sediment than would otherwise be transported over millions of years’. Permafrost melting in the Tibetan Plateau and inside moraines caused recent back-to-back GLOFs in Chamoli in the Indian Himalaya, Melamchi in Nepal, and the South Lhonak in Sikkim — all deadly disasters that together destroyed billions of dollars worth of infrastructure downstream. Rivers of the Asian Highlands travels from deep time to the present climate crisis, taking readers through neatly divided chapters titled Mountain Rivers, Climatic Rivers, Frozen Rivers, Living Rivers, Human Rivers, Territorializing Rivers, Agricultural and Pastoral Rivers, even NGOs and Rivers.&nbsp; Although the book’s title is about the ‘Asian highlands’, it <a href="https://www.himalmag.com/comment/eastern-himalaya-cradle-ethnogenesis">focuses mainly on the Dri Chu (Yangtse)</a> and Yarlung Tso (Brahmaputra). Readers looking for references to Nepal’s rivers will be disappointed, although there is quite a bit about Bhutan. This is surprising because 70% of the annual flow in the Ganga is from tributaries in Nepal, some of them rivers like Karnali, Arun or Bhote Kosi that traverse the Tibetan rimlands. As demand for water and energy grows in the large and increasingly affluent population of north India, and climate breakdown melts Himalayan glaciers, storing monsoon runoff on reservoirs in Nepal is going to be the geopolitical issue of the next decades.&nbsp; The chapter on NGOs and Rivers also fails to cite the work of Nepal’s civil society groups like the Alliance for Energy that built international solidarity in 1995 against the Arun III project on a river that starts in Tibet and flows into Nepal. Ultimately, the World Bank pulled out of the project and the Nepal government invested in smaller decentralised plants. Today, a cascade of power plants are being built by Indian companies on the Arun which do not seem to have taken into account the <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.ads2659">2023 Sikkim GLOF</a> that swept away the $1 billion dollar Teesta III and destroyed other infrastructure. The World Bank itself is back with the Upper Arun project located directly below expanding glacial lakes in Tibet.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250222020256_f2b33e60e6b386308bdf59b58b59e116e90e2e4466a06200faf76fd851f53505.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250222020256_f2b33e60e6b386308bdf59b58b59e116e90e2e4466a06200faf76fd851f53505" data-rendition-name="original" width="5712" height="3213" loading="lazy" alt="Teesta"> <figcaption>The Super Trisuli project in Nepal has ruined the most scenic and ecologically sensitive part of the river to generate just 100MW of power. Photo: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption> </figure>  Despite geographical gaps, Rivers of the Asian Highlands reads like an encyclopedia of Himalayan rivers. The authors look at them not in isolation but as interconnected systems which need a multidisciplinary approach to study the geological, religio-cultural, infrastructure, climate and ecosystem services aspects of catchments.&nbsp; Mt Kailash (Kang Rinpoche) is a case in point. It is fascinating to think that it was part of a mountain range even before the collision of the continents that formed the Himalaya, and was probably buried in ice 3km thick till 15,000 years ago during the Last Glacial Maximum.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025022203020_23c02ec4671f5c3c561fa6b450c1f209720a25794e067b9bb5db0f4649b1b6dc.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="2025022203020_23c02ec4671f5c3c561fa6b450c1f209720a25794e067b9bb5db0f4649b1b6dc" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Mt Kailash"> <figcaption>Mt Kailash. Photo: NABIN BARAL</figcaption> </figure>  Lake Mansarovar and Mt Kailash are also the subject of the new Nepali language book छालबाटो (Road by the Waves) by environmental journalist <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-and-china-to-study-trans-himalayan-railway">Ramesh Bhushal</a> in which he walked, rafted and drove from the source of the Karnali in Tibet, right through 500km of western Nepal, and on to India <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/dancing-with-the-river">where the river meets the Ganga</a>. In his entourage is activist, <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/Comment/rivers-fighting-back,993">Megh Ale</a>, who is on a campaign to stop dams and infrastructure on <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/dams-and-dreams-a-journey-down-the-karnali">Nepal’s longest and only free-flowing river</a>. The book profiles his lonely upstream struggle to conserve the country’s rivers. “We worship rivers, but we don’t love them,” laments Ale. Bhushal’s book is as much about the landscape of this transboundary river as it is about the people he meets along the way, and their relationship with <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-denial-in-the-himalaya">a river that most regard as a curse </a>keeping them poor because they believe it flows out of Rakshas Tal (Lagngar Tso) in Tibet, regarded as a lake of demons, unlike the sacred Mansarovar nearby. The expedition is out to prove that the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/a-karnali-portrait">Karnali River</a> actually starts in the mountains 50km southwest of the Mansarovar (Mapamyu Tso) at the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jQ9Za5QDkvY">Peacock Falls (Mapchu Khambap)</a>. The Indus is called Sengge (Lion), Sutlej is Langchen (elephant) and the Brahmaputra is Tamchok (horse), all starting within 60km of Mansarovar but flowing out in different directions. <blockquote>“I have visited hundreds of rivers around the world, but for some reason I have never seen a river as beautiful as the Karnali. One day I would like to visit its source.”</blockquote> River conservation activist Megh Ale quoted in छालबाटो by Ramesh Bhusal. But all this reverence for the mountains and rivers may not be enough to save the region from the impact of climate breakdown. Heat stress in the Subcontinent will coincide with a shortage of water in the coming decades.&nbsp; <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/01/opinion/himalayas-mountains-dams.html">Sunil Amrith</a> in his 2019 book, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">Unruly Waters: How Mountain Rivers and Monsoons Have Shaped South Asia’s History</a> takes a broader look at how geotectonics, geopolitics, colonialism and nationalism have determined the relations between human beings and rivers. The Himalayan water cycle starts from monsoon moisture that precipitates with orographic uplift along the mountains, atmospheric rivers unleash cloudbursts, ground water emerges from springs that join up to flow down to rivers and the ocean. The Third Pole is the biggest repository of fresh water stored as ice after the polar regions. But it is a hotspot both because of the climate crisis and geopolitical tensions, which impacts on river basin cooperation, early warning data sharing, and ultimately in mitigation of greenhouse gas emission and planning for new risks faced by infrastructure. After independence, India adopted the colonial extraction model for rivers. Inaugurating the Bhakra-Nangal Dam in 1953, Jawaharlal Nehru called it “a temple of &nbsp;modern India … worthy of worship’. Gamble also alludes to this in her book about the European attitude about rivers as a resource to be ‘enclosed, extracted, scrutinised, commodified’. <a href="https://dialogue.earth/en/water/review-unrully-waters/" target="_blank">Amrith</a> profiles the work of Sir Arthur Cotton who was building canals linking rivers in British India at about the same time his contemporaries like botanist <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/republic-of-nepal-s-animal-kingdom" target="_blank">Joseph Dalton-Hooker </a>were exploring the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/saving-kangchenjunga" target="_blank">Teesta and other rivers</a> in the Himalaya to catalogue new plant species. India's current National River Linking Project that would join 37 rivers with 9,000km of canals builds on Cotton’s early work. <blockquote>If there is one consistent lesson in Unruly Waters, it is that water management never has been, and can never be, a purely technical or a scientific question; neither can it be addressed on a purely national scale … the battle continues to understand the monsoons and mountain rivers that shape Asia.</blockquote> Unruly Waters: How Mountain Rivers and Monsoons Have Shaped South Asia’s History by Sunil Amrith And in Nepal, hydropower has become the holy grail as the government unveiled an Energy Development Roadmap to generate 28,500MW by 2035 at a cumulative cost of nearly $50billion. This means no river in Nepal will be left free-flowing. The Trisuli along the Prithvi Highway is being dammed for only 100MW of power, destroying the most scenic part of a river that has rapids famous internationally for white water rafters. Even before it was completed, the dam site suffered Rs200 million in damage in last September’s flood.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025022203020_d9610a11bccb593d32bf4d214479caa17dfbdd6cdfe5e8c38fdcb8eb752fc0ec.jpg" data-media-id="editor_18" data-image-id="2025022203020_d9610a11bccb593d32bf4d214479caa17dfbdd6cdfe5e8c38fdcb8eb752fc0ec" data-rendition-name="original" width="4032" height="2268" loading="lazy" alt="Trisuli"> <figcaption>Boulders and sediment 80m deep were brought down by the Teesta after a GLOF destroyed the $1 billion Teesta III plant in Sikkim in 2023. Photo: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption> </figure>  In Sikkim, there is strong <a href="https://india.mongabay.com/2025/02/political-stir-follows-expert-panels-approval-to-rebuild-teesta-dam-in-sikkim/">local opposition to rebuild Teesta III</a> but investors are looking at the huge economic windfall from the river as it drops from 5,000m below Kangchenjunga to 300m within 80km — one of the highest Gravitational Potential Energy of any river in the world. Besides Nepal and Bhutan, the ‘watersheds’ of the Himalaya are turning into ‘powersheds’ as India and China compete for hydro-hegemony. India is said to be planning to dam the Brahmaputra to offset the disruption caused by China’s Medog Dam upstream (see map, below).&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025022203024_37c60bd2a45a32cd23928c900615b6c7045b2e0265050c4761c3749361181999.png" data-media-id="editor_20" data-image-id="2025022203024_37c60bd2a45a32cd23928c900615b6c7045b2e0265050c4761c3749361181999" data-rendition-name="original" width="1918" height="668" loading="lazy" alt="Himalayan rivers map"> </figure>  The thread running through all three books is the need to recognise the ecosystem services that the inhabitants of High Asia provide by protecting our rivers. Not all rivers need to be monetised, conserving rivers and the cultures they retain protects a nation’s natural wealth into the future as the humans of High Asia try to survive climate breakdown. The highlands will be under even more pressure in the coming decades as people in the plains migrate en masse to higher latitudes or higher altitudes to escape deadly heat and ocean expansion.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025022203028_524a74bf65111db3826bfd246576329c45cd4bd0a48b15024b6a520582bbf05a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_21" data-image-id="2025022203028_524a74bf65111db3826bfd246576329c45cd4bd0a48b15024b6a520582bbf05a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1136" height="702" loading="lazy" alt="River of Asian Highlands cover"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025022203028_20c17a9b92b11c8bb33df5f2fc2781498464288533c310ccd61e1245e709d99c.jpg" data-media-id="editor_22" data-image-id="2025022203028_20c17a9b92b11c8bb33df5f2fc2781498464288533c310ccd61e1245e709d99c" data-rendition-name="original" width="1136" height="702" loading="lazy" alt="Unruly waters cover"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250222030212_649cc2ba02e806da2b128fccaf5de2e5c830e10646ba0b43d56da39f65a70f9f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_23" data-image-id="20250222030212_649cc2ba02e806da2b128fccaf5de2e5c830e10646ba0b43d56da39f65a70f9f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1136" height="702" loading="lazy" alt="Chaalbato cover"> </figure>

Saving what is left of Himalayan rivers

The grant paralysed Nepali politics, and nearly brought down a government. After acrimonious wrangling, Parliament three years ago this week ratified the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/putting-the-mcc-in-context">$500 million US project</a> for roads and transmission lines.
Just as the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/mcc-ball-in-nepal-s-court">Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC)</a> started awarding contracts this week for sections of transmission lines, substations, and highways, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/trump-s-second-coming">Donald Trump </a>suddenly pulled the plug.
The Finance Ministry said it had received an email last week from Washington that payments for contracts were ‘suspended’ by Trump’s executive order. It is not clear if the stay is only for 90 days, and the MCC has asked for a waiver for Nepal and other countries.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/trump-shock-wave-hits-nepal">Trump shock wave hits Nepal</a>, Sudiksha Tuladhar&nbsp;
“This is a temporary suspension, we believe it will eventually work out as it is supposed to,” says former National Planning Commission Chair Biswo Nath Poudel. “If not, the Americans will lose credibility around the world.”
In January, the MCC approved an additional $50 million to cover increased costs, and Nepal is chipping in its own $197 million.
“We will take loans to complete the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-millennium-challenge">transmission lines</a> if we have to, and Nepal is now capable of operationalising projects of that value,” Poudel told us.&nbsp;
The MCC was caught up in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/sino-american-rift-impacts-climate-action">Sino-US competition</a> for dominance in the region. It was Washington’s response to Beijing’s <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/bri-enters-the-tenth-year">Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)</a>. Abandoning MCC will leave Nepal open for <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/china-lobbying-against-mcc">China to step in</a> with its own infrastructure.&nbsp;
“I don't see the Chinese replacing the US in terms of dollar-to-dollar aid in Nepal, including on the MCC, which is also an export-to-India-oriented project,” says Amish Mulmi, author of All Roads Lead North. “But, yes, China can use the aid and investment vacuum left by the US to assist Nepal.”
The debate about whether Nepal should accept <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/power-politics-delays-mcc-in-nepal">the MCC polarised politics</a>, even splitting leaders within parties. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/inoculation-against-misinformation">Conspiracy theories and disinformation</a> spread like <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/wildfire-season-starts-early-in-nepal">wildfire in Nepal</a>’s cybersphere, alleging that the MCC was a ploy to base US missiles in Nepal aimed at China. The Chinese added fuel to the fire, trying to stop ratification.&nbsp;
Not surprisingly, the suspension of MCC contracts this week was greeted with the same trolling that filled <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/no-comment">social media </a>during the MCC debate and after ratification in 2022. This time, the posts have an additional ‘we told you America was not a reliable partner’ refrain.
One self-described influencer posted on X: ‘The MCC has only been suspended, it should be entirely cancelled…(it) is an absolute military trap.’
Finance Ministry officials last week assured that the MCC would not be affected by <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/how-usaid-cut-affects-nepal">the freeze on USAID supported programs </a>worldwide, including Nepal.&nbsp;
On Wednesday at Mar-a-Lago, Trump singled out Nepal, and said USAID’s $20 million to support <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/feudal-federalism">federalism</a> and $19 million for <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/conversation-with-mr-conservation">conservation</a> was a “fraud”. Other US-supported government programs worth $131 million to improve healthcare, education, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/back-to-the-land-in-the-cities">agriculture </a>and inclusion are halted.&nbsp;
In 2022, USAID and Nepal signed a five-year Development Objective Agreement worth $659 million for climate adaptation, environment protection, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/nail-salon-workers-say-proper-ventilation-can-protect-their-reproductive-health">gender and reproductive rights</a>. That is also now in limbo.
Slashing all this assistance has impacted over 300 consultancies and non-profits in Nepal, and threatens to undermine past successes in maternal and child health, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-goal-is-empowerment-and-independence-of-women">women’s empowerment</a>, free press and rural development. &nbsp;
Says Mulmi: “What the US withdrawal on MCC will do is further erode US credibility inside Nepal, particularly since it was such a politically charged subject. It will also signal a change in its stance on China in South Asia, as the MCC was a direct challenge to the BRI and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-s-love-triangle-with-china-and-india-impacts-investment">Chinese investments</a> in infrastructure.”
If there is one lesson from all this, it is that<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/missing-links-in-nepal-s-mcc-debate"> foreign assistance is rarely a free lunch</a> and often comes with strings attached. Nepal should look out for itself and be self-reliant, after all <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/is-free-health-care-possible-in-nepal">basic health care </a>and environmental protection are responsibilities of the Nepali state, not of donors.&nbsp;
This means investing in infrastructure and development to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/staying-home-to-create-jobs">create jobs at home</a>, actually spending budget outlays for capital expenditure, and making optimum use of domestic resources such as<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/pump-water-store-energy"> hydropower</a>.
Says Bishwo Nath Poudel: “The MCC was never anti-China. In fact, India and China are our most important neighbours. What is really important for us is to leverage their growth to pull us along.” &nbsp;

The Great Game, 2nd Half

Till about 200 years ago <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/india-china-rail-race">China and India</a> were the world’s largest economies, and that helped Kathmandu prosper as an entrepôt between the two. We have now come full circle. China and India are ascendant once more, and the two giant neighbours can be the locomotives to pull Nepal along if we play our cards right. That is the message in former Kantipur editor <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/two-takes-on-the-nepal-india-nexus">Sudheer Sharma</a>’s omnibus edition of two books that explore the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/so-far-so-good/nepals-history-through-art">historical</a> and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-geopolitics-of-nepal-s-politics">geopolitical dimensions of Nepal</a>’s relations with China.&nbsp; The two Nepali language books, भिक्षु, व्यापार र बिद्रोह (Monks, Trade and Rebellion) and हिमालपारिको हुरी (Trans-Himalayan Hurricane) follow Sharma’s previous work प्रयोगशाला (Laboratory) which looked mainly at Nepal-India relations and was translated into English as The Nepal Nexus. The first book is predominantly about Kathmandu’s historical links with Lhasa, and by extension <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/beijing-30-zak6iu1w">Beijing</a>. Vajrayana Buddhism played a significant role in bringing the two sides of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lives-on-the-line-in-the-himalaya">the Himalaya</a> together, allowing social and trade relations to thrive.&nbsp; Princess Bhrikuti, King Narendra Dev and Arniko were prominent historical figures, but thousands of lesser known <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/monks-and-nuns-help-in-rescue-and-relief,2320">monks</a>, traders, and travellers also played their part in cementing Kathmandu-Lhasa ties. These connections were so strong that they endured three wars that the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/beginning-of-the-end-of-the-gorkha-empire">Gorkha Kingdom</a> and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/gift-a-goat-to-tibet-nomads-in-nepal">Tibet</a> fought against each other in which <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/neither-side-lost-both-sides-won">Chinese emperors</a> sent military help to fight off the Nepalis. Although<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-assam-connection-revived"> Nepal’s historic connections</a> with Tibet waned after the Chinese annexation of the plateau in the 1950s, it is on that foundation that present day <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-china-agreements-are-stuck">Nepal-China relations</a> are built.&nbsp; Till today, Nepal is the only country with a consulate in Lhasa, and the only <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/kathmandu-airport-to-cut-flight-hours">international flights</a> from Lhasa are to Kathmandu. But as Sharma notes, even back then, Nepal’s proximity with northern India figured importantly in its<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/home-is-where-the-heart-is-yqkvf5vx"> socio-economic </a>and cultural connections with <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/there-are-muslims-in-tibet-too">Tibet</a>. Nepal was the corridor for the exchange of trade and faith between the Ganga plains and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/it-is-getting-hotter-on-the-roof-of-the-world">the Tibetan plateau</a>. The road between Patna and Potala, Banaras and Beijing passed through <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/bringing-silicon-valley-to-kathmandu-valley">Kathmandu Valley</a>. Sharma traces this socio-political landscape to explain how it went on to shape the country’s modern day relations with the neighbours.&nbsp; There were 2,000 Buddhist monks in Nepal during the reign of Lichhavi king Amshuverma, and Arniko established himself in the court of Kubulai Khan and took eight years to build the massive White Dagoba in Beijing. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-life-and-times-of-arniko">The life and times of Arniko</a>, Sewa Bhattarai While Mahayana Buddhism spread from India, through Nepal to China and beyond, it was <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/crony-communism">Communism</a> that later came from China to Nepal. King Mahendra had great geopolitical savvy and navigated the complicated geopolitics of the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/land-reform-in-cold-war-nepal">Cold War</a> to cultivate relations with both Nehru and Mao, while keeping both at arms length. Mahendra wrested aid to build infrastructure like the Kodari and Prithvi Highways from China, but also from India, the Soviet Union and the United States. In fact Nepal was only the eighth non-Communist country to receive foreign aid during Mao’s China.&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/the-new-equaliser">The new equaliser</a> But when <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/14-years-after-conflict-no-closure-in-nepal">Nepal’s Maoists</a> launched an armed struggle against <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/if-birendra-was-alive-nepal-could-still-be-a-monarchy">the monarchy</a>, China’s official media never called them ‘Maoists’. As far as Beijing was concerned, Mao was dead in his mausoleum. It was only later under <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/what-is-xi-jinping-s-big-surprise">Xi Jinping </a>that China warmed up to Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s ‘Maoist’ label.&nbsp; The first book takes us to the point when the Constituent Assembly <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/from-nepali-press/Ftnp-abolishing,624">abolished Nepal’s monarchy</a> in 2008, and the second book, as the name suggests, looks at how the whirlwind rise of China has buffeted Nepal.&nbsp; Sharma encourages readers to abandon <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/guest-editorial/Prithvi-Narayan-Shah-a-visionary-leader,1102">Prithvi Narayan Shah</a>’s famous metaphor of Nepal being ‘yam between two boulders’ to it being more like a ‘narrow canyon’ between two big <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/why-we-climb-mountains">mountains</a>, emphasising the challenges of maintaining sovereignty amid geopolitical pressures not just between India and China, but increasingly, with the United States. We have to see how the new Sino-US Cold War will evolve under <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/trump-s-second-coming">the second Donald Trump presidency</a>. The <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-great-game-2nd-half">suspension of the MCC</a> this week will be an opening for <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/crony-communism">China to push its own BRI infrastructure projects</a> in Nepal. It is not very helpful to see Nepal as being ‘squeezed’ between its giant neighbours, but leverage the country’s geostrategic location by being a connector between India and China. Both neighbours, naturally, have their own interests in Nepal as a buffer state, but both want stability. Kathmandu’s strategy should be to take advantage of the economic growth of its neighbours. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/poor-cash-rich-nepal">Poor cash-rich Nepal</a>, Sonia Awale &nbsp; Both books look at the arrival of Tibetan refugees into Nepal from the late 1950s, and how this resulted in geopolitical push and pull. Although American support for Khampa guerrillas was cut off after Henry Kissinger’s secret visit to Beijing in 1971, US and western support for Tibetans in exile resumed after that.&nbsp; Nepal allowed the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/mindfulness-about-bhutan-s-refugees"> refugees</a> to stay and work here, but under Chinese pressure Kathmandu adopted stricter measures — including <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=2754">deporting Tibetans entering Nepal</a>. The Tibetan exile community remains one of Beijing’s biggest concerns in Nepal. Successive Kathmandu governments have been pressured to curb ‘anti-Chinese activities’ like celebrating the Dalai Lama’s birthday and other anniversaries.&nbsp; Sharma notes that so far Nepal has deftly balanced its support for refugees while keeping relations with Beijing on an even keel. It is significant that China has been surprisingly understanding of the presence of<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/the-start-of-the-anglo-gorkha-war"> Gorkha soldiers from Nepal</a> in the Indian Army along the disputed border where India and China fought a war in 1962, and after which there have been frequent skirmishes.&nbsp; The two books should be read chronologically so as to track the trajectory of historical Nepal-Tibet ties right up to present-day Nepal-China relations. The most relevant concern for bilateral relations today, as Sharma points out, is <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/how-nepal-can-avert-an-economic-crunch">Nepal’s economic independence</a>, <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=15973">sovereignty</a>, and role in a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/guest-column/nepal-in-the-new-world-order">transformed world order</a>. &nbsp;&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250224140256_38f09c2f6dc3b7c79892cf556976fa9f7b3a2f43fb53bd7a248a6c6af3ba4715.jpg" data-media-id="editor_37" data-image-id="20250224140256_38f09c2f6dc3b7c79892cf556976fa9f7b3a2f43fb53bd7a248a6c6af3ba4715" data-rendition-name="original" width="1136" height="702" loading="lazy" alt="Sudheer Sharma 1"> </figure>  &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250224140256_c6eb78b8f59cfda4b3dae582212306fd3ea25b1973d554fdb7579b9d8f345969.jpg" data-media-id="editor_38" data-image-id="20250224140256_c6eb78b8f59cfda4b3dae582212306fd3ea25b1973d554fdb7579b9d8f345969" data-rendition-name="original" width="1136" height="702" loading="lazy" alt="Sudheer Sharma 2"> </figure>  &nbsp;

fertility-rate