<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111412114/6372210a9c7e80680e0c0298jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1125"/><figcaption>Gabions constructed by local lodge owners near Chukhung village in 2016, following an englacial flood from the Lhotse glacier in 2015. The embankment protected the village during a second flood in 2016. Photo: ALTON C BYERS</figcaption></figure>The development of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/tracing-past-glacial-floods-in-kangchenjunga/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">glacial lakes from receding glaciers</a>, contained by either terminal moraines or bedrock, is commonly linked with global warming since the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA), and are thought to be increasing in number and size.Such lakes are prone to sudden and catastrophic drainage of their water which is known as <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/danger-nepals-glacial-lakes-are-filling-up/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">glacial lake outburst floods</a> (GLOFs). Dam breakage can result from rapid lake area expansion rates, dead-ice melting in moraines, destabilising seepage processes, sudden lake water level change, and surge waves created by rockfall or ice calving.The stored lake water that is released has caused <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">enormous death and devastation downstream</a>. However, there are a range of other cryospheric processes and hazards that are only beginning to receive attention. They, too, can result in landslides, debris flows, and/or other major glacier-related flood events.We focus on three of these lesser-known and poorly documented phenomena — englacial conduit floods, permafrost-linked rockfall, and debris flows. All three took place in the Nepal Himalaya during the past decade.Englacial Conduit Floods<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111412114/6372210e9c7e80680e0c0299jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1421" height="900"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Debris-covered glaciers with gradients steeper than 2° are prone to meltwater drainage as opposed to the pooling and development of large glacial lakes. Consequently, they often develop a network of englacial conduits, or cave-like features, within the glacier itself.The conduits may be interconnected and linked to surficial meltwater ponds characteristic of stagnating and ablating debris-covered glaciers. These conduits are usually water filled during the summer months, contained within the glacier by an ice lens or dam located below the exterior debris cover. They are water free during the winter months.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/it-is-getting-hotter-on-the-roof-of-the-world/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">It is getting hotter on the roof of the world</a>, Kunda DixitFlood triggers can include the rapid drainage of a surficial meltwater pond directly into water-filled conduits, overland floods from high precipitation events, where floodwaters enter sinkholes that connect directly to the conduits, or the sudden discharge of water from one internal conduit to another.Retaining ice lenses can then fracture from the increased hydrostatic pressure, with flood waters emerging directly out of the glacier itself.The discharged water from multiple conduit outlets can then merge to create <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/more-himalayan-tsunamis/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">significant downstream flood activity</a>, with peak discharges in the range of several hundred cubic meters per second.These floods, while considerably smaller than most known and recorded GLOFs, can nevertheless result in damage downstream.Permafrost-linked, Rockfall-induced GLOFs and Debris Flows<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111412114/637221119c7e80680e0c029ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="732"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The impacts of global warming trends can be particularly conspicuous in glaciated landscapes, notably in the form of rapidly receding glaciers and the formation of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/living-below-nepals-melting-mountains/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">glacial lakes</a>.Growing evidence suggests that similar changes are also occurring at above 6,000m elevations with the thawing permafrost that can impact the mechanical strength and hydraulic permeability of high elevation rock faces.Rockfalls previously constrained by year-round frozen temperatures can set in motion a cascade of catastrophic processes below, including more rockfalls, debris flows, explosive impact with glaciers below in addition to triggering glacier-related floods downstream.On 20 April 2017, a flood on the Barun Valley in the Makalu-Barun National Park in eastern Nepal blocked the confluence of the Barun with the Arun River, resulting in a potentially dangerous 200m long lake.Our follow-up study during May-June 2017 revealed that the source of the flood was the &lt;0.1 km2 Langmale Glacial Lake. In spite of its small size, the estimated 1.3 × 106m3volume flood caused extensive downstream damage to forests, pastureland, and some infrastructure down to the flood’s attenuation point in Yangle Kharka.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/global-heating-melts-mountains/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Forests replace glaciers in the Himalaya</a>, Tufan NeupaneHowever, instead of the flood trigger being a snow or ice avalanche into the lake, the cause turned out to be a massive, high altitude breakage of solid rock from the east face of Saldim Peak (6,388 m). The debris landslide plummeted 1,200m down to the Langmale Glacier, creating a massive explosion upon impact characterised by a dust cloud and hurricane-force winds.A 1.1 million m3 debris flow of ice, debris, and sediment then cascaded directly into the Saldim Glacial Lake below, triggering a hyper-concentrated slurry outburst flood that grew progressively larger and more destructive as it continued down valley.Similar processes are thought to have triggered <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Anatom-of-a-Himalayan-tsunami,1330" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the 2012 Seti flood near Pokhara</a> that killed 70 people, and 2021 Chamoli flood in Uttarakhand that left 300 dead and destroyed several under construction hydropower projects.Swiss permafrost specialist Wilfried Haeberli, using recent examples from the Swiss Alps, Cordillera Blanca in Peru, and Mt Everest region of Nepal, believes that the probability of similar flood events will continue to increase with the continued formation of new glacial lakes below high mountains.Earthquake-induced GLOFs<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111412114/637221149c7e80680e0c029bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1340" height="1026"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Seismic activity is a <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/melting-mountains-shake,3073" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">potential trigger of GLOFs</a>. The fragile and unconsolidated nature of most terminal moraines means they can be easily damaged during earthquakes, releasing water downstream.Following the 25 April 2015 earthquake, a team of international remote sensing specialists from the University of Arizona mapped 4,312 landslides to identify potential hazards. They surveyed 491 glacier lakes for earthquake damage, finding nine landslide-impacted lakes but no visible satellite evidence of GLOFs. The lack of GLOFs was attributed to the impacted region’s extreme topography, which may have played a role in buffering the potentially destructive impact of the shock waves.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/langtang-copes-with-quake-and-covid/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">An earthquake-triggered avalanche</a> of ice and rock was dislodged from the Langmoche Glacier above Dig Tso glacial lake in 2015 in the Khumbu. The avalanche created a 4.2–8.2m seiche wave and small outburst flood within the Bhote Kosi downstream. Although the flood was largely contained within the river channel, several bridges were destroyed.Dig Tso first experienced major GLOF activity on 4 August 1985, as a result of a similar ice avalanche from the Langmoche Glacier. A resulting avalanche created a surge wave that breached the terminal moraine, unleashing an estimated 5 million m3 of water that killed five people and  caused extensive damage downstream.The 2015 repeat event is important because it demonstrates that even though a glacial lake has already experienced an outburst flood, it can still be dangerous, subject to additional flooding activity in the future, and in need of regular monitoring.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111412114/637221179c7e80680e0c029cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1000" height="1500"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Each of these phenomena need more detailed study to develop the most effective prevention, mitigation, and adaptation approaches possible. Such studies will most likely be strengthened if they include a on-site or remote sensing reconnaissance of the event as soon after its occurrence as possible, along with the participation, insights, and experience of local people.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/climate-risk-to-hydropower-investment/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Large hydropower projects are particularly vulnerable</a> to the impacts of glacier floods, as has happened  repeatedly in recent years. Such projects need to plan for such catastrophic events, which have thus far been largely ignored within the pre-construction feasibility and environmental impact study process.Transboundary research and cooperation will also be essential to minimising the impacts of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/global-heating-melts-mountains/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">future GLOFs</a>, particularly along the Nepal-China border.If scientists can share the results of their research with decision-makers, more timely mitigation programs will be possible.Alton C Byers, PhD is a Senior Research Associate and Faculty at the Institute for Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR), University of Colorado at Boulder. A scientific version of this article, recently published in Mountain Research and Development, can be downloaded for free<a href="https://bioone.org/journals/mountain-research-and-development/volume-42/issue-2/MRD-JOURNAL-D-21-00045.1/Three-Recent-and-Lesser-Known-Glacier-Related-Flood-Mechanisms-in/10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-21-00045.1.full" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> here</a>. Byers is currently researching alpine ecosystems in the Kanchenjunga Conservation Area.

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Nepal’s mountains are melting

October is buckwheat harvest time in the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dazzling-dolpo/">distant highlands of Dolpo</a>. In the village of Tso, Namdak Sangmo watches other women from her village fling their sickles, stoop over to sling the sheaves on their shoulders, and bring the crop in. Sangmo, 68, does not have her own crop to harvest because she does not have any land anymore. Her riverside terraces were washed away by a flash flood in 2012, and another one in 2019 destroyed what was left, leaving a barren boulder-strewn slope. “It was a raging torrent, and it came down suddenly and swept everything in its path, I do not have any land left to farm,” says Sangmo. She is not the only one, almost half the villagers in Tso lost their standing crop and fields when a wall of mud and boulders raced down from the slopes of the 6,883m high Mt Kanjiroba that towers over the district. Scientists have not drawn a direct correlation between the climate crisis and extreme weather events like this, but they say there is evidence that droughts, record downpours, and erratic monsoons in the Himalaya are a result of a hotter atmosphere. This year’s monsoon has seen freak downpours and unprecedented rainfall in the trans-Himalayan regions of Nepal. Unseasonal rains this week unleashed deadly floods and landslides, especially in western Nepal. The Himalayan mountains are warming between 0.3-0.7°C faster than the global average, causing glaciers to shrink, snowlines to recede, and increasing the danger of floods when expanding glacial lakes burst. <div class="embed-block"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d18e39c7e80680e0ac7edjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"></div> Sangmo remembers well that September day two years ago. “It had rained non-stop for two days, and suddenly we heard a big roar from up the mountain, my brother-in-law told us to run,” she recalls. There was unusually heavy rain where snow used to fall, and the fragile moraine ridges below Kanjiroba just dissolved, sending the debris flow racing down to the village below. A similar flood in June on the Melamchi River damaged Kathmandu’s water-supply project, Nepal’s most expensive infrastructure scheme. In Manang, a trans-Himalayan valley north of the Annapurnas, there was record-breaking rainfall that unleashed deadly floods. “There is more and more evidence that extreme rainfall events are caused by climate change, and these trigger sudden floods that destroy farms and settlements downstream,” says Arun Shrestha, a climate specialist with the River Basins and Cryosphere division at the Kathmandu-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD). There has not been enough study to determine if the Dolpo flood was <a href="https://www.dhm.gov.np/uploads/climatic/467608975Observed%20Climate%20Trend%20Analysis%20Report_2017_Final.pdf">caused by a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF)</a>, or just extra-heavy rainfall on sediment deposits in high mountain valleys, but the result was just as devastating. <div class="embed-block"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d18da9c7e80680e0ac7eajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000">The tongue of the glacier below Kanjiroba from which the floods came down.</div> A recent Himalayan <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-glacial-lakes-in-danger-of-bursting/">Glacial Lake Inventory</a> by <a href="https://www.icimod.org/event/glacial-lake-inventory-launch/">ICIMOD </a>and UNDP mapped 3,624 new glacial lakes on Nepal’s main river basins and found that 47 of them could <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/more-himalayan-tsunamis/">burst at any time</a>, with the risk of catastrophic flooding down valley. Of these, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-glacial-lakes-in-danger-of-bursting/">25 lakes are in Tibet,</a> but flow into tributaries of Nepal’s main rivers. While communities in Nepal have historically learnt to reduce risk from these floods by not settling along riverbanks, new poorly-designed roads, settlements and infrastructure are vulnerable to these climate induced disasters. While GLOFs can happen at some point in the future, weather extremes caused by the climate crisis have already unleashed a creeping disaster in Himalayan villages like Tso. This year, a 7-month <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/no-smoke-without-fire-2/">winter drought led to wildfires</a> and floods in Dolpo, displacing farmers, and forcing them to migrate. As <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/Shey-Phoksundo-may-soon-become-a-bus-park,3975">Dolpo is connected by road</a>, most men have left rural areas for work in the cities or abroad to supplement their income, and it is the women who stay behind who bear the brunt of the impact of climate change -- the drudgery of having to walk farther for water, or suffer from failed harvests. <div class="embed-block"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d18dd9c7e80680e0ac7ebjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000">Massive flashfloods in 2012 and 2019 that came down from Mt Kanjiroba washed away fields and homes in Tso village.</div> “Climate change adds to the extra load of women in rural areas because of unpredictable rain, floods droughts and springs going dry,” says <a href=".%20https:/www.icimod.org/team/abid-hussain/">Abid Hussain</a>, of the Mountain Agriculture and Livelihood division of ICIMOD. Most of Nepal’s subsistence farmers are dependent on rain-fed agriculture, and <a href="https://www.thestatesman.com/world/women-participation-in-agriculture-is-highest-in-nepal-1502659946.html">83% of the country's women are fulltime farmers</a>. Namdak Sasngmo’s husband died 15 years ago, and her children are married. Without her fields, she finds it difficult to take care of her family. Nepal’s central or local governments should be helping her, but there has been no compensation for the loss and damage. Without her fields, with <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/trekking-to-save-nepals-snow-leopards/">no income from trekking tourism</a> due to the pandemic, and a decline in the yarsagumba crop, Sangmo is worried. Left to fend for themselves, she has fallen back on her faith in the Tibetan animist belief system that has deep reverence for the mountains as divine creations that have their serene and destructive sides that need to be appeased through prayer and good deeds. “We may have angered the gods of Kanjiroba with our deeds,” says Sangmo.“We made the river impure and many outsiders came and polluted the lake.” <div class="embed-block"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d18e09c7e80680e0ac7ecjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000">Namdak Sangmo, 50, harvests buckwheat in a neighbour’s field because her farm was washed away by the flood.</div> To prevent future calamities, the monk at the local monastery, Khenpo Lama, performed a ritual to appeal to Mt Kanjiroba with a shebchu at a small stupa with offerings of buckwheat and barley. Sangmo believes it worked, because “everything has been quiet on the mountain after that”. From his monastery, Khenpo Nyima himself has noticed the change in weather, and the snow retreating higher and higher up Kanjiroba. Although he does not connect this to the global climate crisis, he is convinced outsiders are to blame. “We have seen the mountains changing, and that is because there are more and more outsiders coming here and they are desecrating nature,” he says, looking up at the icy tongue of a glacier below Kanjiroba, the top of which is veiled in monsoon clouds. He says the modern world has also changed the traditional ways in Dolpo. Local people no longer rely on dorima that determines the schedule for planting, harvesting, and the timings for taking yaks and goats up to high pasture. “They also do not put up prayer flags in the yulsa every year, and this has displeased the gods,” Khenpo Nyima adds. <div class="embed-block"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d18e39c7e80680e0ac7edjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"></div> However, the local government and the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/saving-shey-phoksundo-in-nepal,3596">Shey Phoksundo National Park</a> are not relying on prayers to protect citizens here. They built an embankment along the river after the 2012 flood to shield Tso’s village and farms, but it was washed away in the second flood in 2019. “We may need a bigger budget to build a proper wall that will save the village the next time there is a big flood, I am trying to convince the municipality authorities, but we need more help,” says Nima Lama, the ward chair. However, studies have shown that people in mountain regions across the world have been adapting to the changing climate without knowing why it is changing, and using local belief systems and traditions to do so. <a href="https://phys.org/news/2019-06-mountain-dwellers-glaciers-climate.html">Anthropologist Ben Orlove of Columbia University’s Earth Institute</a> interviewed people in locales including the Peruvian Andes, and found that while villagers were aware of the changes, they were adapting to them without necessarily linking it to climate change. Orlove proposes framing the ‘climate change’ narrative as a need for ‘community change’ so the focus is on how villagers can benefit from the measures they take to adapt to lack of rain, water shortages, or flood-prevention embankments. That appears to be already happening here in Dolpo, an arid trans-Himalayan region of Nepal where people are falling back on a sense of community and traditional belief systems to cope with the impacts of the climate crisis. <div class="embed-block"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d18e69c7e80680e0ac7eejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000">Yarsagumba is a fungus that grows on a caterpillar, and is harvested in spring in the Himalaya. It is in high demand across the border in China.</div> The climate and ‘Himalayan viagra’ As the climate crisis impacts on the pastoral lifestyle of the people of Dolpo, the women who remain in the remote villages have started relying more and more on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/its-yarsa-picking-time/">yarsagumba, the caterpillar fungus</a> that is prized in Chinese medicine for its supposed aphrodisiac properties. These days, it is mainly women who climb up to the high slopes where the fungus pokes out of the ground after snow melts in spring. They harvest the yarsagumba and sell it to middlemen who in turn sell it to wholesalers at the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/new-high-way-to-dolpo/">Chinese border, 4 days walk to the north.</a> However, a combination of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/heavy-snowfall-over-nepal-himalaya/">unseasonal snowfall</a>, long periods of drought and warmer weather is affecting the yarsagumba, too. Schools in Dolpo close at yarsa harvest time so students can accompany parents to the pick the fungus, but this year they have returned empty-handed. “We went up in April, but the yarsa was not fully mature and it was soggy, there was nothing to pick,” says one student, Sangmo Lama. <div class="embed-block"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d18e99c7e80680e0ac7efjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000">With her trekking income gone, and farm washed away by floods, Namdak Sangmo used to depend on yarsagumba picking. But even the growth of the fungus has been affected by weather extremes caused by climate change.</div> While over-harvesting in the past has been one of the reasons for the decline in the yarsa crop, it should have revived in the past two years when the pandemic reduced the numbers of pickers. That lends support to the theory that a warmer Himalaya is also affecting growth of the valuable fungus and contributes to the end of the yarsa <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/yarsagumba-dispute-dolpa,1424">gold rush</a>. Local people who relied on tourism and livestock for income had <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=18321#.XnOPvS2B3-Y">earnings from the fungus</a> as a fall back. Now, that option is also gone. Yarsa made up more than half of the annual income of an average Dolpo household. While the fungus is sold for only Rs5,000 per kg to the Chinese traders at the border, it can fetch as much as $75,000 per kg in Shanghai. After she lost her fields to the glacial floods, Namdak Sangmo of Tso village used to rely solely on yarsa income. She used to collect at least 100 pieces of fungus in the past, two years ago she found only six pieces, and this spring none at all. “Without yarsa what do we eat? How do we survive? The mountain was angry and took away my fields, there is nothing to do but pray,” says Sangmo, as she sharpens her sickle to help the other women in their buckwheat fields. This report was supported by the Road to COP26 campaign implemented by the British Council and funded by UKAID.

Climate change is a disaster in the Nepal Himalaya

<figure><img width="2542" height="1176" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181112/636bdfba9c7e80680e083db6jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Glacial lake in the Kangchenjunga region in eastern Nepal near the border with China and India. The Himalaya face the twin threats of climate change and geopolitical rivalry. Photo: Alton Byers </figcaption></figure>For centuries, the Himalaya served as any icy frontier between empires, but even though because of connectivity it is no longer a barrier, the world’s highest mountain range has become a climate and geopolitical hotspot.  Recent violent clashes between <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/view-of-galwan-from-bhutan/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/view-of-galwan-from-bhutan/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1604448211075000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG8qOkbL2dIG8GwiLLNh-Rt1h9TZg">India and China in Ladakh</a> and a border dispute between <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-india-nepal-china-geopolitical-tri-junction/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-india-nepal-china-geopolitical-tri-junction/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1604448211075000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFOURe45bg-1w-KkKyE_j6zluaz3A">India and Nepal</a> over a Himalayan valley have added to existing hostility between India and Pakistan as well as friction between <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/Connecting-dots/Middle-ground-in-Doklam-the-Himalayan-war,1004" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/Connecting-dots/Middle-ground-in-Doklam-the-Himalayan-war,1004&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1604448211075000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHyCCggHqvDEwKjgw3KPYIGEE7Qaw">China and Bhutan over Doklam</a>. This comes on top of a climate emergency that is melting Asia’s water tower, the source of most the region’s big rivers on which 2 billion people downstream depend. Last week’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/covid-19-and-the-new-great-game/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/covid-19-and-the-new-great-game/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1604448211075000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG4zo-RxjyjXuRcmBMVX-_cr1ePRA">BECA pact between India and the United States</a> is seen by many as a military alliance aimed at containing China, which makes their already ecologically fragile Himalayan border a strategic frontline in a new Cold War.“The geopolitical strain across the Himalaya is taking attention away from climate change that will cause a future water crisis across South and Southeast Asia and China, which in turn will increase interstate tension even more,” predicted <a href="https://nyuad.nyu.edu/en/academics/divisions/arts-and-humanities/faculty/sophia-kalantzakos.html" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://nyuad.nyu.edu/en/academics/divisions/arts-and-humanities/faculty/sophia-kalantzakos.html&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1604448211075000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGm5jiqJYYNV9gmd6q7CyG_EyXgLQ">Sophia Kalantzakos</a>, a professor at New York University Abu Dhabi at last week’s virtual conference, ‘<a href="https://www.himalayanwaterproject.org/conference" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.himalayanwaterproject.org/conference&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1604448211075000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGp0Mz0OiqzLy2o7k2iVU0Qz0vqIw">The Himalayas: Geopolitics and Ecology of Melting Mountains</a>’, that brought together academics and researchers from around the world.Himalayan rivers and weather patterns do not respect borders, but experts said, governments make plans only up to the point where the rivers reach their national boundary and no further.  “Recent tensions between India and China, India and Pakistan, and even India and Nepal mean that there is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/himalayan-rivalry-impacts-climate-science/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/himalayan-rivalry-impacts-climate-science/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1604448211075000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFEhMy4Y7P1TVm486W54I6sZ2Pt6Q">even less chance of cooperation</a> between countries in the Himalaya,” said <a href="https://www.orfonline.org/people-expert/jayanta-bandyopadhyay/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.orfonline.org/people-expert/jayanta-bandyopadhyay/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1604448211075000&amp;usg=AFQjCNED77Wit_tjOD-JCdXOVFne5n1Eyw">Jayanta Bandyopadhyay</a>, who has worked on eco-system based governance of rivers in India for 35 years.Other speakers in the virtual panels warned that while modern connectivity had made the Himalaya less of a physical barrier, that had also given the mountainous border between states a new strategic importance. Development of infrastructure had therefore become a matter of national security with competing schemes like <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/chinas-bri-will-ride-out-the-pandemic/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/chinas-bri-will-ride-out-the-pandemic/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1604448211075000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFaJX019rST0sIe5vdGWekV-9laSQ">China’s BRI</a> and the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/knowing-whats-good-for-nepal/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/knowing-whats-good-for-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1604448211075000&amp;usg=AFQjCNF7VHlAnlbhnwPeA0UWW-ySMWOTGA">American MCC.</a>“The Himalaya is no longer the natural barrier it once was, it is a now a contested border. But for us the mountains are home, they are not a boundary,” said <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/review/finding-the-nexus-between-water-food-and-energy/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/review/finding-the-nexus-between-water-food-and-energy/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1604448211076000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFOzGgg0c6BtU96tmwmlJWWFPeNBQ">Dipak Gyawali</a>, a researchers who was once Nepal’s Minister for Water Resources. “The trouble is development has got completely securitised, and we are worried because climate change does not figure in any of this.”  <figure><img width="1854" height="1038" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181112/636bdfbd9c7e80680e083db7jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Virtual panel on ‘The Himalayas: Hotspot of Geopolitics?’ with Sophia Kalantzakos, Alex Davis, Ruth Gamble, Dipak Gyawali and Jayanta Bandyopadhyay on 29 October.</figcaption></figure><a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1604448211076000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEeOuT3RJ5uOzKH-EM0y36JH-aHuQ">As the mountains melt</a>, glaciers are turning into dangerously large lakes that have been bursting with increasing frequency. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/living-below-nepals-melting-mountains/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/living-below-nepals-melting-mountains/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1604448211076000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGAqkR6W2diGKXBPWBP3ARE9USl5A">Alton Byers</a>, an American mountaineer and geographer who specialises in mitigating glacial hazards in the Andes and Himalaya warned that Nepal and other countries in the region faced accelerated dangers from these lakes bursting. Byers showed repeat photography using Swiss mountaineer <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/living-below-nepals-melting-mountains/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/living-below-nepals-melting-mountains/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1604448211076000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGAqkR6W2diGKXBPWBP3ARE9USl5A">Fritz Müller’s</a> hotographs of the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/khumbu-then-and-now-global-warming-climate-change,4017" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/khumbu-then-and-now-global-warming-climate-change,4017&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1604448211076000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEam1y5KELMBk6A2qUtaA7T9n1erw">Khumbu Glacier</a> from 1956, and comparing it with recent ones he had taken to reveal the loss in ice mass. “The concern about these lakes is the amount of water they hold,” he said. “<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/living-below-nepals-melting-mountains/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/living-below-nepals-melting-mountains/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1604448211076000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGAqkR6W2diGKXBPWBP3ARE9USl5A">Imja Lake</a> has about 80 million m3 of water, and the concern is that if this is released suddenly it can result in a <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=18418" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id%3D18418&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1604448211076000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHeegGz59Y2ZRK3-UA7matrj05-Zw">glacier lake outburst flood</a>, unleashing enormous devastation downstream.”   Reducing the risk posed by glacial lakes means lowering their water levels, but that is expensive business, Byers said. Many of these lakes also drain into rivers that flow into another country, for instance from China to India, or from China to Nepal so there has to be <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-glacial-lakes-in-danger-of-bursting/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-glacial-lakes-in-danger-of-bursting/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1604448211076000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGeKCQuevSmIe8hc2omHnQlDY4o8A">inter-state cooperation in mitigating the danger.</a> “We have an international order that is not fit for the purpose of confronting the climate emergency,” added <a href="https://scholars.latrobe.edu.au/display/rgamble" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://scholars.latrobe.edu.au/display/rgamble&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1604448211076000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGSheWK-7mf51U5dh4zwume6IzH9w">Ruth Gamble</a>, environmental and cultural historian of the Himalaya. “There’s no system, no imperative to look after rivers. We have states looking after their own interests, own territory, own securitisation and they don’t match with each other.” The virtual conference on 29-30 October was organised by faculty and alumni from New York University Abu Dhabi in collaboration with the <a href="https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&amp;rls=en&amp;q=Rachel+Carson+Center&amp;ie=UTF-8&amp;oe=UTF-8" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.google.com/search?client%3Dsafari%26rls%3Den%26q%3DRachel%2BCarson%2BCenter%26ie%3DUTF-8%26oe%3DUTF-8&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1604448211076000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHVN_pgcb_QmWHeSnz6hdCInzONzw">Rachel Carson Center</a>, LMU Munich. The group is also running the interdisciplinary research initiative, <a href="https://www.himalayanwaterproject.org/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.himalayanwaterproject.org/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1604448211076000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEWbNj3Y_zCWEnR-HY6ohd3_CySzA">Geopolitics and Ecology of Himalayan Water. </a> Panels also looked at the non-human Himalaya and the region’s rich, but threatened, biodiversity. <a href="https://nyuad.nyu.edu/en/academics/divisions/arts-and-humanities/faculty/charles-siebert.html" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://nyuad.nyu.edu/en/academics/divisions/arts-and-humanities/faculty/charles-siebert.html&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1604448211076000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFwowBzrzU_ruEib6C1mw-oylEw8w">Charles Siebert</a>, an author who has written extensively about wild elephants, said that despite the deaths and disruptions, the Covid-19 pandemic had forced people to take nature seriously again. “The virus is forcing a human retreat, maybe there is something positive about this forced pause,” he said. While the Himalaya may be a shared home for people, wildlife conservationists stressed that the mountains do not actually belong to anyone.  As <a href="https://research-repository.uwa.edu.au/en/persons/alexander-davis" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://research-repository.uwa.edu.au/en/persons/alexander-davis&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1604448211076000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGdwUPTKJCu93U7cJIhDpQTPKkMjw">Alex Davis</a>, professor at The University of Western Australia put it, “The earth is an actor in this conflict. The mountains are alive. The challenge is to protect biodiversity of the Himalaya while addressing human needs.”  Nepali mountaineer and activist <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=19459#.X6AtRy8RoWo" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id%3D19459%23.X6AtRy8RoWo&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1604448211076000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH7Tnt7SYSLFb0tmsUoKLrUigwCfA">Shailee Basn</a>et agreed. After climbing Mt Everest and the seven highest peaks in all seven continents, she said evidence of the impact of global warming could be seen everywhere – from the Andes to the Caucuses, from the Rockies to the Himalaya.  She added: “When I was in the mountains, I really felt for the first time in my life, that there is no distinction between me and nature. I was an integral part of nature, and the mountains were speaking to me.”  Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/tracing-past-glacial-floods-in-kangchenjunga/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/tracing-past-glacial-floods-in-kangchenjunga/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1604448211076000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG8k2MXQ7qDrb-XYLI79PMXoA_4wA">Tracing past glacial floods in Kangchenjunga</a>, Alton Byers <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/melting-mountains-shake,3073" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/melting-mountains-shake,3073&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1604448211076000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGbRgzcnAxizWHjh5qx1p3Tf7vfBg">When melting mountains shake</a>, Kunda Dixit <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/himalayan-rivalry-impacts-climate-science/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/himalayan-rivalry-impacts-climate-science/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1604448211076000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHAw8S34CuMzFl_xXfz4SdGVqgGCQ">Himalayan rivalry impacts climate science</a>, Ramesh Bushal <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/trans-himalayan-handshake/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/trans-himalayan-handshake/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1604448211076000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFXGdVSBD6THQ7NmuOrj8SON7_P3g">Trans-Himalayan handshake</a>, Editorial <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-india-nepal-china-geopolitical-tri-junction/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-india-nepal-china-geopolitical-tri-junction/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1604448211076000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHL-NodlJ_WAdzDxitH5lm5jwNJyg">The India Nepal China geopolitical tri-junction</a>, Kunda Dixit

A new Cold War in the Himalaya

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110915114/636bb3aa9c7e80680e07bb55jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1148" height="759"/><figcaption>Tso Rolpa glacial lake at 4,580m has grown seven times in size in the past 60 years due to global heating. Photo: RASTRARAJ BHANDARI</figcaption></figure>A new report out this week warns that hundreds of glacial lakes in the Himalaya are in danger of bursting because global heating is melting the ice on the world's highest mountains. However, on only two of them have there been mitigation measures to reduce water levels.Those projects have been prohibitively expensive, and questions have been raised about their sustainability and whether they offer a long-term solution.The water level of the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/human-face-of-a-himalayan-climate-crisis/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/human-face-of-a-himalayan-climate-crisis/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1599636709453000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHQqRLDTM5grtmwzGwIaNowvT8YVA">Tso Rolpa glacial lake in the Rolwaling Valley</a> was lowered 20 years ago after scientists warned that it was in imminent danger of bursting. The project cost $9 million at the time, most of it coming from The Netherlands.Its sluice gate lowered the water level by only 3m, and scientists now say it needs to go down by a further 20m to reduce risk of it bursting. A network of early warning stations downstream also has not functioned as planned.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110915114/636bb3ad9c7e80680e07bb56jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="749" height="500"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The other project was a <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/from-nepali-press/Diverting-danger,3172" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/from-nepali-press/Diverting-danger,3172&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1599636709453000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEzjK6xZYP2UlpO845JQUGvWXX7-w">drainage channel and gate built on Imja Lake</a> in the Mt Everest region in 2016 by the Nepal Army with support from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the Global Environment Facility (GEF) at a <a href="https://undp-climate.exposure.co/in-pictures-peoplepowered-climate-adaptation-in-nepal" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://undp-climate.exposure.co/in-pictures-peoplepowered-climate-adaptation-in-nepal&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1599636709453000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH3t2JWDSs3D2O1Qt4izuTV31jEpQ">cost of $7.2 million</a>.The project located at 5,000m altitude was <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/Sustainable-Mountain-Development-Getting-the-Facts-Right-Jack-D-Ives,946" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/Sustainable-Mountain-Development-Getting-the-Facts-Right-Jack-D-Ives,946&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1599636709453000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE-VqTq7lypmtE-h7cavGE15lDCpw">criticised at the time</a> for being an expensive show-case on a popular tourist site near Mt Everest, and for wasting money on a lake that is relatively stable because it is buttressed by two side moraines of the Lhotse Nup and Nuptse Glaciers. Glacial lakes like <a href="https://digitalcommons.macalester.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2306&amp;context=himalaya" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://digitalcommons.macalester.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article%3D2306%26context%3Dhimalaya&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1599636709453000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGiefBPIhM8TyxKAWYVSeHxZbPX6Q">Thulagi in Lamjung</a> on the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/lake-464-glacial-lake" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/lake-464-glacial-lake&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1599636709453000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE1Mutd985NNyrTLmT_nvWOtHNhYQ">Hongu basin</a> were said to be in much greater danger of bursting, and <a href="https://glacierhub.org/2016/06/22/military-intervention-at-nepals-fastest-growing-glacial-lake/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://glacierhub.org/2016/06/22/military-intervention-at-nepals-fastest-growing-glacial-lake/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1599636709453000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEMww2bKHDexG28W6Fcyj4fKtuDWg">needed more urgent mitigation</a>.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110915114/636bb3af9c7e80680e07bb57jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="537" height="431"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>And it has emerged that four years after the project was completed and the water in Imja Lake lowered by 3.4m, the Nepal Army and its main contractor have yet to remove their excavators and other equipment from the site as per the contract -- flouting guidelines of Sagarmatha National Park, which is a World Heritage Site.Despite recent interventions by UNESCO and the national park, the Nepal Army has said it is technically not possible to take the equipment out because of altitude restrictions on its helicopters. The firm hired by the army, Krishna Construction, says its contract does not say anything about removal of equipment.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110915114/636bb3b19c7e80680e07bb58jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="536" height="458"><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110915114/636bb3b39c7e80680e07bb59jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="540" height="330"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The Glacial Lake Inventory report launched at a <a href="https://www.icimod.org/event/glacial-lake-inventory-launch/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.icimod.org/event/glacial-lake-inventory-launch/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1599636709453000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFp2v-R1EwAEPQAwzlTD_C-dgl5Pg">webinar</a> on Monday says that of the expanding glacial lakes in the Himalaya, 47 on the watersheds of Nepal’s three main rivers are at high risk of bursting, and causing catastrophic floods downstream. Of these, 42 lakes are on the Kosi River basin in eastern Nepal, three are on the Gandaki and two on the Karnali watersheds.However, not all the lakes are located in Nepal. Of the 47 dangerous lakes, 25 are in Tibet and empty into rivers that flow down directly into Nepal. One of the high risk lakes is in Indian territory near Karnali.This week’s report by the Kathmandu-based <a href="https://www.icimod.org/event/glacial-lake-inventory-launch/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.icimod.org/event/glacial-lake-inventory-launch/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1599636709453000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFp2v-R1EwAEPQAwzlTD_C-dgl5Pg">International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD)</a> and UNDP mapped 3,624 glacial lakes in the three river basins in Nepal, China and India, of which 2,070 are within Nepal’s boundaries. The other 1,509 are on the Tibetan Plateau in China and 45 are in India, but drain into Nepal.The researchers evaluated the risk factors for the glacial lakes depending on the integrity of their moraine dams, topography of the surroundings and the risk of avalanche into the lakes, as well as downstream settlements and infrastructure and divided them into three categories.Of the 47 dangerous lakes on the Kosi, Gandaki and Karnali basins, 31 were found to be at very high risk of bursting and causing damage. Twelve other lakes are at moderate risk and there are four lakes in the lower risk category.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110915114/636bb3b49c7e80680e07bb5ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="831"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The lakes are expanding because the ice fields feeding them are <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/on-thin-ice-in-the-khumbu/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/on-thin-ice-in-the-khumbu/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1599636709453000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFziTwdDLkl5JF1xIjm8fDL18A4Sw">melting faster due to global heating,</a> as well as increased deposition of soot particles on the snow. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1599636709453000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFEwtJkUB1QL98Dmfr7jVG349bG3Q">An ICIMOD assessment</a> last year reported that even in the best case scenario, the Himalaya will lose one-third of its ice and snow during this century. But recent studies have shown that the melting is actually happening faster than previously thought, and is accelerating.This has increased the number of glacial lakes in the Nepal Himalaya as well as their sizes. For example, remote sensing data in the report showed that there were 3,609 glacial lakes in Nepal’s three river basins with a combined area of 180sq km. By 2015, the number had grown to 3,696 and they covered a combined area of 195.4sq km.Scientists have long noted that the rate of melting is higher in the eastern Himalaya than in the west, and the report confirms this. Interestingly, while the number of glacial lakes in the Kosi basin has gone down, their total area has increased by 14sq km – largely because supraglacial ponds have merged, or the lakes have drained without bursting.The report has also recorded 26 <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/high-water" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/high-water&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1599636709453000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG57P3tY-Tj18gLSJl0V0eJT_JiAg">glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) events</a> in the Nepal Himalaya since 1977, but only 14 of them were on lakes located in Nepal. This emphasises the importance of trans-boundary early warning system – especially on lakes in Tibet upstream on the two Bhote Kosi rivers, Tama Kosi, the Arun and others.

Nepal's glacial lakes in danger of bursting

[caption id="attachment_54080" align="alignnone" width="900"]<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110915110/636bb2b09c7e80680e07baf9jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="900" height="501"/> Panoramic view of Manang Village and the Gangapurna and Annapurna III Glaciers that have retreated dramatically since 1980. Photo: SolundirWhen Swiss geologist Toni Hagen arrived in Nepal, the Ranas were still ruling the country. Throughout the 1950s, Hagen traversed the country on foot from east to west, from north to south, examining rock strata to probe the orogenesis of the Himalaya.Along the way, he took thousands of photographs and film clips that remain a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/time-capsule-of-kathmandu/">valuable visual archive of a time</a> when Nepal was emerging from historical isolation. Today, the photographs are a treasure trove for climate researchers to measure the extent of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/human-face-of-a-himalayan-climate-crisis/">glacial retreat in the Himalaya</a>.[caption id="attachment_54105" align="alignleft" width="250"]<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110915110/636bb2b39c7e80680e07bafajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="250" height="248"> Shalik Ram Sigdel, the Nepali scientist who conducted the study of melting glaciers and new forest cover in Manang.Repeat photography has allowed Nepali climate scientists like <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Shalik_Sigdel" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Shalik_Sigdel&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1599194307732000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGLU7cCjeTpgUDbnMntpnJqDDySKg">Shalik Ram Sigdel</a> of the Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research at the Chinese Academy of Sciences to plot the rapidity of Himalayan melting due to global warming in the past century.When Toni Hagen trekked through Manang in 1957, he climbed a slope above the village to take photographs of the northern flank of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-abcs-of-a-winter-trek-in-nepal/">the Annapurnas</a>. Even at that time, the Gangapurna Glacier was already debris-covered, meaning that it had lost most of its surface ice.But when Sigdel visited the area and compared it to more recent photographs, he found the glacier snout had receded 900m up the mountain, leaving a lake at its terminus bracketed by sharply defined lateral moraines. The Marsyangdi River has found a way around this feature.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110915110/636bb2b49c7e80680e07bafbjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1196" height="778"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110915110/636bb2b79c7e80680e07bafcjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="786">Toni Hagen’s photograph in 1957 of the debris-covered Gangapurna Glacier termius with a few supraglacial ponds, and the same view in 2010 by Nabin Baral showing the growing glacial lake and vegetation on the terminal moraine. Photos: Toni Hagen and Nabin Baral/<a href="http://thethirdpole.net/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://thethirdpole.net&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1599194307733000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH20EkAK7tiS1QEO-2v8kjshrdqFw">thethirdpole.net</a><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110915110/636bb2ba9c7e80680e07bafdjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1199" height="768"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110915110/636bb2bc9c7e80680e07bafejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1199" height="797">Before-and-after photographs by Nabin Baral from Manang village of the Gangapurna Glacier and the glacial lake in 2007 and 2018 showing the dramatic retreat of the glacier and increased forest cover on the slopes. Photos: Nabin Baral/<a href="http://thethirdpole.net/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://thethirdpole.net&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1599194307733000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH20EkAK7tiS1QEO-2v8kjshrdqFw">thethirdpole.net</a>In a paper titled Retreating Glacier and Advancing Forest Over the Past 200 Years in Central Himalayas published on last week in the <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2020JG005751" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2020JG005751&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1599194307732000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH_R19ErZEJGj-6qI6IxagxD87Z8w">Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences</a>, Sigdel with co-authors <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/doSearch?ContribAuthorStored=Muhammad%2C+Sher" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/doSearch?ContribAuthorStored%3DMuhammad%252C%2BSher&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1599194307732000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFez6UmtBUzucmh0dOKYcsDUeIvWA">Sher Muhammad</a> of ICIMOD, <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/doSearch?ContribAuthorStored=Zhang%2C+Hui" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/doSearch?ContribAuthorStored%3DZhang%252C%2BHui&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1599194307732000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFRmO-B5dlg03-1zEr0mvuMYO6YYA">Hui Zhang</a>, <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/doSearch?ContribAuthorStored=Zhu%2C+Haifeng" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/doSearch?ContribAuthorStored%3DZhu%252C%2BHaifeng&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1599194307733000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH8qC5kAyRJfSST0IRACWK8reH1mw">Haifeng Zhu</a> and <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/doSearch?ContribAuthorStored=Liang%2C+Eryuan" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/doSearch?ContribAuthorStored%3DLiang%252C%2BEryuan&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1599194307733000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEHCDgbGGXh_niT1k2YRRv-DKelwA">Eryuan Liang</a> present data on the analysis of glacial debris deposits and tree-rings on the Gangapurna and Annapurna III glaciers in Manang.[caption id="attachment_54081" align="alignright" width="600"]<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110915110/636bb2bf9c7e80680e07baffjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="600" height="375"> Google Earth images (south is up) of the Annapurna III Glacier (left) and the Gangapurna Glacier (right).The paper presents the first detailed evidence of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-third-pole-is-warming-faster-than-expected/">fluctuations in Himalayan glaciers</a> over the past 200 years, and concludes that snowlines have been rising and forests advancing higher, and they did so in spurts since 1790s with the process intensifying since 1980.While <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/tracing-past-glacial-floods-in-kangchenjunga/">glaciers have been shrinking and snowlines have been naturally receding</a> ever since the Last Glacial Period 12,000 years ago and the Little Ice Age 700 years ago, this process has amplified with fossil fuel burning after the Industrial Revolution.The researchers used remote sensing satellite imagery and field research to find that as the Gangapurna and Annapurna III glaciers shrank and receded, birch, pine and juniper have been moving up the mountain since 1808.For instance, in 1988 the Gangapurna Glacier was 9km long and 17.74km2 in area, and by October 2019 its length had receded to 8.05km and area was down to 17.5km2. They also found that the thickness of the ice in the glaciers had also shrunk considerably.“Just in the past 60 years, the Gangapurna glacier has receded by more than 900m,” Sigdel said in an interview. “And the speed at which they are receding has accelerated.”[caption id="attachment_54098" align="alignleft" width="500"]<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110915110/636bb2c29c7e80680e07bb00jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="500" height="515"> Satellite imagery of the Gangapurna Glacier (top) and the Annapurna III Glacier in 1988, 2008 and 2019 showing that the rate of glacial retreat is accelerating.Indeed, the paper says that while the length of the Gangapurna Glacier reduced by 386m at 17.5m per year between 1957 to 1979, the speed picked up to 24m per year from 1979 to 2016 – receding by a full 903m in that time. The Annnapurna III Glacier receded at a slower pace and was smaller by 500m in the past 65 years due to the different gradient and size of the catchment.As the ice melted, vegetation started creeping up the mountains. Sigdel, who specialises in understanding treeline response to a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/">changing climate in the Himalaya</a>, examined tree-rings and the vegetation that have colonised the moraines in the past decades.As shown in the before-and-after photographs of Toni Hagen’s images as well as through remote-sensing data, older moraines and those that were deposited after the Little Ice Age are already covered by dense forest, presenting evidence of forests replacing glaciers in the Himalaya.[caption id="attachment_54082" align="alignnone" width="1000"]<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110915110/636bb2c59c7e80680e07bb01jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1000" height="882">Repeat photography of the Gangapurna Glacier terminus in 1957 by Swiss geologist Toni Hagen, in 1979 by Czech photographer Zdeněk Thoma. And a view of the glacier from Manang village taken by Zdeněk Thoma in 1979 and the same view in 2016. Contour map of Upper Manang showing the location of the glacier terminus in those years.Being darker, the forests also absorb more sunlight than snowfields that earlier reflected light, and together with transpiration, this feedback loop in turn could amplify <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/climate-for-change/the-great-himalayan-thaw/">the warming trend in the Himalaya</a>, the paper concludes.While the warming may favour timber and agriculture production in Nepal, Sigdel says they threaten the dry season water flow in Himalayan rivers that will have consequences downstream.He adds: “Our research confirms that the climate crisis has been seriously impacting water resources in the Himalaya. The Gangapurna and Annpurna III glaciers feed the Marsyangdi River, and their melting will affect the entire basin, endangering water supply and affecting hydropower generation and irrigation downstream.”

Forests replace glaciers in the Himalaya

Tracing past glacial floods in Kangchenjunga

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131156/636a52a49c7e80680e052308jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2592" height="848"/><figcaption>Gabions above Chukung with the summit of Lhotse peeking through the clouds last month. All photos: ALTON C BYERS</figcaption></figure>In an example of local people adapting to the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/">climate crisis</a> with little outside help, the people of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/on-thin-ice-in-the-khumbu/">Nepal’s Khumbu region</a> are building embankments to protect themselves from increasingly frequent floods coming out of melting glaciers upstream.While major glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) that destroy infrastructure get a lot of press, these local initiatives in remote and high altitude locations do not get much attention.While on a field survey of the impacts of the <a href="https://www.google.com/url?client=internal-uds-cse&amp;cx=011870630917993763279:opm7uqsat-4&amp;q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/on-everest-4-years-after-the-nepal-earthquake/&amp;sa=U&amp;ved=2ahUKEwjYya7W_efjAhUJinAKHZLsAcsQFjABegQIDxAC&amp;usg=AOvVaw0h7aKRfWj4B_kVdyZ1-PZZ">25 April and 12 May 2015 earthquakes</a> on three of Nepal’s potentially dangerous glacial lakes — <a href="https://digitalcommons.macalester.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2306&amp;context=himalaya">Imja, Tso Rolpa and Thulagi</a> – local lodge owners in Chukhung village (4,730m) talked of a mysterious flood from the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=16562#.XUYpei0Q0Wo">Lhotse Glacier</a>, immediately upstream, on 25 May that year.The USAID-supported study followed our recently completed High Mountain Adaptation Partnership (HiMAP) program, which worked with communities in the Khumbu and Cordillera Blanca of Peru to develop local adaptation plans of action based on concurrent glacial lake and climate change studies, which were routinely shared with local people.Further investigation revealed that the source of the Lhotse flood was the interior of the glacier itself, now similar to a massive piece of Swiss cheese, with hundreds of water-filled caves in the shrinking and <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/ice-to-water-glacier-lake-outburts-himalayas-nepal,4197">rapidly ablating glacier</a>. Many of the caves are linked to surface meltwater ponds that can drain rapidly, in some cases triggering the release of water from dozens of conduits that converge to create a major flood.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131156/636a52a79c7e80680e052309jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1000" height="989">Photo: GOOGLE EARTHThe 6m high wave generated by the May 2015 flood destroyed the bridge to Island Peak Base Camp and narrowly missed Chukung. It came in the middle of the night and, combined with the memory of the <a href="https://www.google.com/url?client=internal-uds-cse&amp;cx=011870630917993763279:opm7uqsat-4&amp;q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/melting-mountains-shake,3073&amp;sa=U&amp;ved=2ahUKEwjh7pL9_efjAhUDk3AKHWsyBAEQFjAIegQIBhAC&amp;usg=AOvVaw2mkMt6PodwsV2PgkTJG1uR">devastating earthquakes</a> the month before, caused widespread panic. Cell phone messages were passed rapidly down the valley.  People from Chukung to Lukla gathered their loved ones and carrying the elderly, ran for higher ground. They feared it might be a massive GLOF from Imja Tsho (5,010m), but in fact it was a smaller flood that impacted only the uppermost settlements.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131156/636a52aa9c7e80680e05230ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1125"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131156/636a52ad9c7e80680e05230bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1125"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>After the flood, local volunteers in the Khumbu Alpine Conservation Committee decided to begin building a dozen or more gabions, or rock-filled wire cages, immediately next to Chukung, on its southernmost side.A year later, on 12 June 2016, <a href="http://www.crwr.utexas.edu/video/Lhotse_Flood_Supplement_V3.mp4">a second and larger conduit flood</a> from Lhotse occurred, this time headed directly for Chukung. But the flood waters were successfully diverted by the gabions built the year before, resulting in only minor flooding of several lodge courtyards immediately next to the river.  Armed with the knowledge of their successful action, the community continued to devote its resources to construct more gabion walls along the glacial streams that run on the north and south sides of the settlement.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131156/636a52b09c7e80680e05230cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1826" height="507"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Yet another englacial conduit flood from the Lhotse Nup Glacier occurred a few weeks ago. Once again, there was minimal damage to the village thanks to the new gabions.With support from the Nepal Mountaineering Association, the Buffer Zone Council, local municipal government and their own resources, villagers have been able to fund and use effective local technology in response to what appears to be a new era of fairly routine flooding from the glaciers.Such phenomena <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=16563#.XUYqJS0Q0Wo">have occurred for decades</a>, but never with the apparently increasing frequency of the past 10-15 years. Chukung probably should never have been built next to a vulnerable flood plain, but when most of the lodges were constructed 20 years ago, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/melting-mountains-shake,3073">glacier floods</a> happened only every 30-60 years, not every year.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131156/636a52b39c7e80680e05230djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="980" height="735"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131156/636a52b69c7e80680e05230ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="979" height="733"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131156/636a52b89c7e80680e05230fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="716"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Such floods were so infrequent that in the mid-1950s, glaciologist Fritz Müller was nearly kicked out of the Khumbu by villagers angered over a large flood, most likely from Lhotse Nup Glacier, which destroyed half of Chukung’s grazing land as well as the prayer wheel ghatta at Phunki. They felt Müller had angered the gods by his research activities on the Khumbu glacier.Fortunately, the then 14-year-old abbot of Tengboche Monastery, the Venerable Ngawang Tenzing Zangpo Rinpoche, intervened on Müller’s behalf and all was forgiven. These days glacier floods happen nearly every year, but they rarely make the national news since they are so much smaller than the major GLOFs that destroy downstream infrastructure, they occur in high and remote locations, and sometimes escape the notice of even local people.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131156/636a52bb9c7e80680e052310jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="594" height="404"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The climate change adaptation demonstrated by Chukung has yet to make global news, but it is one more example of how Himalayan people themselves, with little or no help from the outside, are quietly <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/weather-warning-for-climate-meeting/">adapting to the impacts of climate change</a> in real and effective ways.Bridges are being built higher to cope with more frequent and higher floods. Lodges and new infrastructure are built well above floodplains that until recently were considered to be safe. Many gabions are being built along river banks that only 10 years ago had none.And life in the high Himalaya goes on.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131156/636a52bd9c7e80680e052311jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="501" height="376"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Alton C Byers, PhD, is Senior Research Associate and Faculty at the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR), University of Colorado at Boulder, in the US.

Living below Nepal’s melting mountains

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101144/636a25539c7e80680e0439c1jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1125"/><figcaption>Photo: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption></figure>While the global media’s attention is on the Greenland ice sheet, the Arctic and eastern Antarctica, a landmark report released this week shows that the Himalaya will face catastrophic meltdown during this century if there is no immediate effort to reduce the world’s carbon emissions.The voluminous 627-page report titled <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007%2F978-3-319-92288-1">Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment: Climate Change, Sustainability and People</a> put together by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (<a href="http://www.icimod.org/">ICIMOD</a>) states that even in the best-case scenario, the Himalayan mountains will lose more than one-third of their ice by the end of the century. An earlier report was even scarier, it said the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/on-thin-ice-in-the-khumbu/">Mt Everest</a> region would lose 90% of its ice by 2100.Read also:<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-damage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate damage</a>, Editorial<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-on-the-heat/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Turning on the heat</a>, Ajay Dixit<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101144/636a25569c7e80680e0439c2jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="1050"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>But that would happen only if global average temperatures can be capped at a 1.5oC increase above pre-industrial levels. Most scientists agree that target is unlikely to be met. If <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/climate-for-change/the-great-himalayan-thaw/">current emission trends</a> continue, the world will actually be hotter by between 4.2-6.5oC by 2100 – in which case two-thirds of Himalayan glaciers will be gone.Himalayan peaks are warming between 0.3 to 0.7oC faster than the global average, and the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/ice-to-water-glacier-lake-outburts-himalayas-nepal,4197">loss of Himalayan ice</a> would have devastating consequences for 1.6 billion people living in the mountains and downstream countries. Climate models show that summer flow in the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra and their snow-fed tributaries will actually rise till 2050 as the glaciers melt away, but will start decreasing after that because there will be no more ice left. Measurements show that glaciers in the Central and Eastern Himalaya are shrinking at 40cm/year, and some are receding up to 30m/year.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101144/636a25599c7e80680e0439c3jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1676" height="938"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>After the controversy surrounding a 2007 report by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC) that predicted all Himalayan glaciers would be gone by 2035, scientists have been much more careful in making similarly wild predictions. Which is why ICIMOD deployed 210 scientists from 20 countries in this five-year study to assess the latest knowledge from peer-reviewed journal findings.Read also: <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/on-thin-ice-in-the-khumbu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">On thin ice in the Khumbu</a>, Kunda Dixit<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/guest-editorial/mountainous-change,887" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mountainous change</a>, David MoldenThe new assessment is only slightly less alarming. Although the timeframe has been pushed back to the end of the century there is still very little time to fix the problem even if global carbon emissions are cut in the coming decades. So, we know what the problem is and we know the solution. What are we going to do about it?<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101144/636a255d9c7e80680e0439c4jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="500" height="288">Annual mean temperature anomaly in the Himalayan region in the past century, showing sharp warming trend. ICIMOD Director <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/interview/interview-with-david-molden-icimod,3074">David Molden</a> has anticipated that question. He said at the report’s launch in Kathmandu on Monday: “This is not just going to be another book on the shelf. We hope to spark policy dialogue by putting climate action on the political agenda by putting the state of the knowledge in one place.”The assessment is a unique scientific partnership between ICIMOD’s member countries, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Burma, China, India and Nepal. The Centre is now spearheading an effort to set up a Himalayan Council, much like the <a href="https://arctic-council.org/index.php/en/">Arctic Council</a> which is working on the north polar region.The concerns of the world’s mountain regions and the amplified impact of global warming on the world’s mountains were mentioned only tangentially in the last two IPCC report. This assessment, in which IPCC scientists also took part, is expected to put the Himalayan region firmly on the global agenda as well.The hydro-meteorological impact of climate change will go beyond countries like Nepal or Bhutan. Heavily populated and rapidly developing downstream areas of China, Southeast Asia, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh will face severe water crisis. And then there is the indirect impact of the warming on weather and monsoons, as simulations show increased frequency of droughts and floods.Himalayan countries have always struggled against poverty, marginalisation, state neglect, inequality, discrimination, out-migration, and these problem predate climate change. What global warming does is make all the existing structural problems worse.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101144/636a255f9c7e80680e0439c5jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="804"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>For example, the assessment shows that half the children living in Himalayan villages are undernourished. Nepal’s national poverty rate is 23%, but 42% of the country’s mountain dwellers are poor. Because they have fewer choices, the poorest are already beginning to suffer from erratic weather and other impacts of climate change, adding to the push-factors in outmigration.The report also lays out <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/going-green-environment-day,3064">policy options</a> for countries in the Himalaya, which include increased cross border cooperation among them to battle common threats. One concrete step would be China, Nepal and India cooperating on disaster early warning on future Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/lake-464-glacial-lake">GLOFs</a>). The report also calls for added investment in meeting the UN’s Sustainable Development Goal targets which would build resilience among mountain peoples by giving them more options to adapt.Two of ICIMOD’s member countries, China and India, are both suffering the impact of climate change along their common mountain frontier. Together, the two giants are the biggest emitters of greenhouses gases in the world. It no longer makes sense now to talk only about adapting to climate change, Himalayan countries need to also start mitigating their carbon emissions and switching to renewables.They need to do this not just to save the Planet, but to also save their fossil-fuel dependent economies and diversifying their energy mix towards renewables.The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment Mountains, Climate Change, Sustainability and People Philippus Wester, Arabinda Mishra, Aditi Mukherji, Arun Bhakta Shrestha (Editors)ICIMOD, HIMAP, Springer Open, 2018Creative Commons, available as e-book: ISBN 978-3-319-92288-1 <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007%2F978-3-319-92288-1"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101144/636a25619c7e80680e0439c6jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="770" height="1022"></a>https://youtu.be/Sry8WlqRvns<h2>“If we can’t cap warming at 1.5 degrees, these mountains are in deep trouble”</h2>The Director General of International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), David Molden spoke with Nepali Times this week about the Centre’s new Himalayan Assessment and some of the key findings and recommendations.Nepali Times: Why was an assessment needed at this time?David Molden: We really do not know what is happening in our mountains. We wanted to bring experts together both to discover what is happening and to make some strong policy recommendations at a time when we are facing major sustainable development issues.What are some of the key findings?Mountains warm faster than the global average, a phenomenon known as Elevation Dependent Warming. This means if we hit a 1.5 degree world, the warming in the mountains would be on the order of 1.8 degrees. But if we follow the current trajectory, we will see warming of up to 4,5,6 or 7 degrees in mountain areas (by 2100). Besides climate change, mountain communities face other problems like out-migration and depleting ecosystems. All of these changes together present a challenge in managing mountain resources.One particular prediction is shocking, that our mountains will lose 64% of their glaciers by the end of the century. Yes, if we reach 1.5 degree world, we would lose about one-third of our glaciers. If present trends continue, then we would lose two-third of our glaciers, which is quite frightening. In a way it is like a thermometer gauge, it's a pure signal of climate change. But what it is telling us is that climate impacts in the mountains can be quite severe.It looks like those impacts are worse than the worst case scenario predicted in Paris 2 years ago.I sensed that in Paris they based a lot of things on the 2014 IPCC report, which had very little on the mountains after their controversial 2007 predictions on the Himalaya. Only now we are coming out with a clearer understanding, and the next IPCC report will have a special cross-cutting chapter on mountains.But don't we already have enough evidence? Do we still need more research? Isn't it time to start taking action? We know enough to take action. But in the situation of inter-related changes, more evidence and information will help policy makers to take better action and make more refined decisions. A mountain, environment and science focus can bring countries to work together. In fact, we have seen that the task of producing the assessment report itself was an important exercise to build cooperation across countries to deal with climate change.Two ICIMOD member countries are major fossil fuel users. Isn't it time we started looking beyond adaptation to mitigation? I was recently at a regional meeting for Asia Pacific ministers on environment and what came out strongly was that the best help for adaptation is through mitigation. China is taking significant steps in mitigation, as is India. I hope we can use the report findings to continue our discussion with greenhouse gas emitter countries and take urgent action. We have to keep the world at 1.5 degree, otherwise these mountains are going to be in deep trouble.Your report also deals with air pollution and natural disasters. What are some key recommendations to reduce risk? Air pollution is a slow moving natural disaster. The black carbon in the air moves up, settles in the glaciers and increases their melt, and also disrupts heating and cooling effects of the atmosphere. We have to make sure that we have clean energy and reduce emission from automobiles, brick kilns, open fires. As for other natural disasters like floods, droughts, landslides and earthquakes, we have to be better prepared, invest on weather services and deliver the information to the people through flood early warning systems, for example.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8bPFAEdRp8o

Kunda Dixit

Terrifying assessment of a Himalayan melting

Born in Khandbari in eastern Nepal, Parashuram Pathak helped his family around the farm, sold what they grew in the market and lent a hand in the kitchen.&nbsp; After working as a chef in Dubai, San Francisco, Denmark, Australia, and on cruise ships, Pathak has now brought back what he has learnt to the Tusa Restaurant in Bhaktapur that opened on Nepali New Year on 13 April. Tusa uses fresh indigenous ingredients from various parts of Nepal, and fuses them with international methods to produce unique dishes. Pathak is a global Nepali, and is introducing global Nepali cuisine to his homeland. Pathak left an executive chef job to intern at three-Michelin-starred Noma in Denmark, named the best restaurant in the world five times. Noma runs on a philosophy of foraging to rediscover wild local ingredients, and Tusa’s mission is similarly noble: preparing dishes with Nepali ingredients using modern techniques and equipment. “We are taking Nepali food beyond dal-bhat and momo, we are taking it international,” Pathak said on the phone from Sydney. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepali-baker-rises-to-the-top-in-denmark">Denmark’s best baker is a Nepali</a>, Vishad Onta  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240419180424_1312bc016cbb2fe59c6d4a78d1f8b463af4a10b3f79559a2405fd54ea5b3197a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20240419180424_1312bc016cbb2fe59c6d4a78d1f8b463af4a10b3f79559a2405fd54ea5b3197a" data-rendition-name="original" width="801" height="802" loading="lazy" alt="The return of the natives Page 12 NT #1208"> <figcaption>Photo: PARASHURAM PATHAK/FACEBOOK</figcaption> </figure>  Pathak’s team in Nepal includes chefs Rupesh Bohara and Sagar Shrestha who have also worked extensively in Dubai and Australia, and share his vision. The three realised they shared the same dream, and over the past five years have travelled across Nepal to research their menu, collecting ingredients and ideas from homestays, food carts, and nature. The team then scouted for Nepal’s best architect, and zeroed in on Bhaktapur-based heritage conservationist Rabindra Puri who designed the Malla-era house for Tusa in the Nag Pokhari neighbourhood. Bohara and Shrestha have moved back to Nepal for good, and Pathak arrives in September. “I made dishes from all over the world, but when someone asked what Nepali food was like, I had no answer,” says Bohara, “I came back to find out.” &nbsp;“You can get citizenship, a green card, big houses and cars, but where is the self-satisfaction?” asks Shrestha, who has a red-and-blue chef’s knife with the sun and moon of the Nepali flag tattooed on his right forearm.&nbsp; Read also:<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/diaspora-diaries/the-return-of-a-master-baker"> The return of a master baker</a>, Raju Pakhrin  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240419180424_c601264463e5a28d4e71a46781f340a53619a08d00949a7aaebfef84e75a319d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20240419180424_c601264463e5a28d4e71a46781f340a53619a08d00949a7aaebfef84e75a319d" data-rendition-name="original" width="6000" height="4000" loading="lazy" alt="The return of the natives Page 12 NT #1208"> <figcaption>Photos: TUSA</figcaption> </figure>  Bohara and Shrestha passionately recount stories of their trips across Nepal, speaking of generous lodge owners who introduced them to local ingredients. Tusa can seat 28, and dining here is a sensory experience with a live kitchen. The chefs cook and place dishes on a large granite countertop with induction sections built in. Behind the counter is a grill on an indoor fire with pulley control to adjust the fire. Everything that can be made in Nepal — chairs and tables, ceramic dishes, the grill — is locally sourced. The executive kitchen/laboratory is downstairs. It is spacious, spotless, and contains appliances rarely seen in restaurants here: a sous vide machine that cooks vacuum-sealed packets at consistent temperatures, and a dehydrator for sisnu nettles. A fresh batch of deep purple kimbu (mulberry) muffins has just come out of the oven. Fridges have dry-aged fish and marigold kombucha. Fermentation seems to be the theme at Tusa, and Pathak explained: “Fermentation takes away the natural sugars in food, leaving behind a true, umami taste.”&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/vikings-khukri-passion">Viking's khukri passion</a>, Alisha Sijapati  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240419180424_c59e2b4230864f646bc36108adb951e95ec85da6156740294b1ec715b86acf89.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20240419180424_c59e2b4230864f646bc36108adb951e95ec85da6156740294b1ec715b86acf89" data-rendition-name="original" width="5895" height="3930" loading="lazy" alt="The return of the natives Page 12 NT #1208"> </figure>  Tusa itself means ‘shoot’ in Nepali, and can be a dish of fermented bamboo shoots. The restaurant serves a tasting menu with six courses, plus surprises. It starts with a fermented potato and millet roti with charred green garlic and tomato chutney. The bread tastes like a mix of alu paratha and kodoko roti with a satisfying, mild flavour. The chefs do not show off, and overdo it. Dishes are tastefully simple and faithful, a theme that runs through the meal. The second course is a filet of fish charred on one side and placed in a broth. It is delicate and smokey, and does not mask the character of the fish.&nbsp; The next is Batuk Chukauni, a Magar dish with a lentil snack and a yoghurt-based potato achar. The batuk, made of lentil batter, is light and the chukauni has potatoes and peas. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/money-is-not-everything-but-you-need-money-for-everything">"Money is not everything, but you need money for everything"</a>, Rohit Shrestha  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240419180424_e3f51228ff792e8d4297f81f8e67d138584e922ae035d131977494219e5e85c5.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20240419180424_e3f51228ff792e8d4297f81f8e67d138584e922ae035d131977494219e5e85c5" data-rendition-name="original" width="1333" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="The return of the natives Page 12 NT #1208"> <figcaption>Batuk Chukauni. Photo: VISHAD ONTA</figcaption> </figure>  Next is a skewer of jackfruit with a tamarind and mustard glaze that has the texture of a slice of sausage and melts in the mouth. Then comes the first off-menu item: a steak of watermelon, glazed and grilled, tasting sweet, sour and smokey. After that a palate cleanser sorbet made with laligurans syrup adorned with a frozen candied rhododendron petal. Finally the main course: barbeque chicken and chyakla coarse corn grits. The chicken has been brined, marinated, cooked sous-vide and seared on the grill. The delicate consistency of the chicken stands out. Desert is a smooth, creamy cheesecake that uses the local juju-dhau yoghurt. And the last course is a moist, moss-green sisnu cake laced with mulberry jam and cream.&nbsp; There is nothing gimmicky about Tusa. It is the coming together of skilled Nepalis with international exposure who have mixed what they have learnt abroad with the flavours of home.&nbsp; The tasting menu is Rs3,500, and it may take some time before Nepalis develop a predilection for some of its items. The chefs are excited, vindicated, and relieved. Coming back to Nepal, uprooting successful careers abroad to take a chance on Nepal must not have been easy.&nbsp; Tusa had a soft launch on New Year’s day with Kathmandu-based diplomats. Australian Ambassador Felicity Volk was one of them, and wrote on a Facebook post: ‘Chefs who honed their skills in Australia and returned to Nepal to give back. We call it fine dining, they call it #cominghome.’ Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/the-baker-of-barpak">The baker of Barpak</a>, Tara Aryal Pandey

The return of the natives

For a year or two after the 25 April 2015 earthquake, the residents of Kathmandu were too terrified to return to their high-rise apartments. None of them collapsed in the 7.8 disaster, but many sustained serious structural damage. &nbsp;
Fast forward nine years, and they have all but forgotten that frightful day. Kathmandu is back to building substandard structures, even as land prices drive developers to build taller.&nbsp;
With no more space to spread horizontally, Kathmandu is going vertical. But structural engineers say most of the high rises do not take into account seismicity, soil condition, construction methods, quality of raw materials, fire hazard, and search and rescue in collapsed concrete structures.
“Much of our focus since the 2015 earthquake has been on building and construction, but not as much on where we are building,” warns Sangeeta Singh, Professor of Urban Planning and Deputy Director of Centre for Disaster Studies at the Institute of Engineering.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/in-a-disastrous-state">In a disastrous state</a>, Sonia Awale
She adds: “Kathmandu is not really suited for high-rises. We have to first test the condition of the soil, but building permits are being issued without this fundamental step.”
Kathmandu Valley is a former lakebed with soft topsoil prone to liquefaction and excessive shaking, as seen during the 1934 megaquake. Many ruptures tore up the surface in 2015. &nbsp;
During an earthquake, the rock layers below Kathmandu ring like a bell and the vibrations on the surface take between 0.5 to 2 seconds for one oscillation. Buildings also vibrate, but at different frequencies depending on their height, construction material, and arrangement of their structural components.
At five floors, the vibration period of a building is 0.5 seconds, which is the same as that for Kathmandu Valley, and this could cause more damage, says structural engineer Surya Narayan Shrestha at the National Society for Earthquake Technology - Nepal (NSET).
“Building anything that is five storeys or higher in Kathmandu needs special design and structural considerations,” says Shrestha.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/shaking-things-up">Shaking things up</a>, Editorial
Technologies exist to reduce seismic risk in high-rises, and these are used in earthquake-prone cities like Tokyo, Los Angeles, Jakarta or Mexico City.&nbsp;
Base isolation, for example, separates the vibration of the land and the building, reducing damage from soil-building resonance. Base isolators move and stretch under pressure, absorbing much of an earthquake's impact by reducing swaying and shaking. &nbsp;
Seismic dampers change the pattern of vibration altogether, dissipating energy as vibrations move across a structure. But these are all expensive technologies, and none of the high-rises in Kathmandu use them.
However, Nepali engineers who can help with technology transfer are working in the field in Nepal and overseas. Kathmandu’s high-rises are already very expensive, and making them seismic-resistant would be an incremental cost.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/learning-from-jajarkot-what-we-didnt-after-2015-695vpzle">Learning from Jajarkot what we didn't after 2015</a>, Sushil Gyewali
The shape of high-rises also matters. Reinforced concrete buildings with asymmetric designs of the kind that are seen in newer structures in Kathmandu experience more torsion and shear during quakes. High-rises with regular geometry are stronger. &nbsp;&nbsp;
An even bigger concern is that of emergency evacuation and rescue in case of fire or earthquake. Kathmandu fire services do not have ladders that reach the higher floors of most new structures.
“High-rises mean more people and potentially higher casualties,” explains Shrestha. “We need immediate evacuation routes, fire escapes, emergency ladders, and fire trucks that can reach higher. Right now, safety features are voluntary and not mandatory.”
The street access, shelters, open spaces, and evacuation routes are integral to disaster preparedness and the safety of neighbourhoods and not just buildings. Most new high-rises in Kathmandu have narrow access roads.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/rebuilding-resilience-7-years-later">Rebuilding resilience 7 years later</a>, Anil Pokhrel
Since most of the buildings that survived the 2015 disaster were reinforced concrete structures, it fed the misconception that they are safer. But Himalayan seismologists say that if the intensity and duration of the shaking had been just a little higher, many substandard concrete structures would have collapsed.&nbsp;
And that is the final gap: Nepal’s limited expertise and equipment for search and rescue inside collapsed concrete structures. Kathmandu’s high-rises need to be better prepared for the next Big One.
“Structural safety and design were at the front and the centre after the 2015 earthquake, we also revised some building codes but we are back to square one with contractor-driven construction, especially in peri-urban areas,” says Sangeeta Singh, who is also with the National Planning Commission. “We need to monitor construction as much as design.”&nbsp;
Shrestha at NSET agrees there have been improvements in building practices in the past nine years, but adds, “We have both learnt and unlearnt lessons from 2015. The awareness hasn’t yet translated into action on safety.”
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lessons-not-learned-from-2015-o2etq6zu">Lessons not learned from 2015</a>, Sonia Awale

The rise of high-rises

Midway along the stretch of the ancient trade route between Tibet and India lies the Kel Tol neighbourhood. The name is derived from the original Koligrām, and it is believed the Koli people, who were originally from Rāmagrām in present-day southern Nepal near the Indian border, settled here. The Koli were the maternal ancestors of none other than the Buddha. Kel Tol is famous for the Buddhist monastic complex of Kanak Chaitya Mahāvihar, featuring the majestic two-tiered gilded temple of the white god Karunāmaya.&nbsp; This elaborately decorated courtyard is a bustling centre of the Vajrayāna sect of Buddhism, practised widely by the indigenous Newā people of Kathmandu Valley. Karunāmaya, also known as Ārya Avalokiteshwor, is defined in great detail in the 1st century CE Buddhist text Sadharmapundarikā where he liberates all sentient beings from suffering. He helps rid the eight external fears metaphorically equated with their equivalent internal states of mind: lions (pride), wild elephants (ignorance), fire (anger), snakes (jealousy), floods (attachment), imprisonment (miserliness), thieves (wrong views) and cannibals (doubt).  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240418130432_fe370cbee75003cd3eb5dccc7c3b2671630da193b0744db2aeac1bab3ff4a85c.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20240418130432_fe370cbee75003cd3eb5dccc7c3b2671630da193b0744db2aeac1bab3ff4a85c" data-rendition-name="original" width="1338" height="2000" loading="lazy" alt="Seto Machhindranath"> </figure>  In the Pancha Rakshyā Sutra, a Buddhist scripture from 200 CE, Ārya Avalokiteshwor was counted among the eight major deities. Followers of the Brāhminical god Shiva worship Ārya Avalokiteshwor as Seto Machhindranāth. For Shaivites, Machhindranāth is the Indian saint who founded the Nāth cult in the 10th century CE. He is the guru of saint Gorakhnāth. During the reign of Yakshya Malla (1428–1482 CE), a beautiful image of Ārya Avalokiteshwor was dug up by a farmer in present-day Jamal, which was then a cultivated area outside the city. The farmer, known as a Jamami (meaning the one from Jamal) took the image home for safekeeping. That night, Ārya Avalokiteshwor appeared in the farmer’s dream and told him that the proper place for him to reside is at the confluence of two rivers. The nearest confluence was at present-day Wongha (Indrachok) and the image was installed in the Kanak Chaitya Mahāvihar complex in Kel Tol near Wongha. This made it easier for city residents to pay homage to Ārya Avalokiteshwor and spread compassion. Soon, the deity came to be revered highly as Jamaleshwor, the one found in Jamal. Eventually, the name got corrupted, as happens often in Nepāl Bhāsā, to Janabahā Dyo. The courtyard where his temple is located is now popularly known as Janabahā.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240418130432_5c9b219530e400445ef4e7f64856b43e7cdb756be26d9ed4565c84044c178a7e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20240418130432_5c9b219530e400445ef4e7f64856b43e7cdb756be26d9ed4565c84044c178a7e" data-rendition-name="original" width="2500" height="1668" loading="lazy" alt="Seto Machhindranath"> </figure>  The gilded temple of Janabahā Dyo, first built in the early 16th century CE, is adorned with wooden and metal artefacts that symbolise 108 forms of Ārya Avalokiteshwor. It stands out as the most decorated temple of its kind in Kathmandu. Today, Janabahā is a living heritage site where many ancient customs and rituals are widely practised as per Vajrayāna Buddhist tradition. Devotees throng the Janabahā Dyo shrine for daily worship and to receive Karunāmaya’s blessings. Being the compassionate one, Ārya Avalokiteshwor goes around town every year in his tall wooden chariot to allow sick and physically disabled devotees to pay homage to him from the comfort of their homes. One could say it is a door-to-door visit by the Compassionate One.&nbsp; For the pragmatic minded, the chariot festival is an annual renewal of communal harmony, validation of our ancient mathematical supremacy and demonstration of the need to keep practical skills alive, including the craft of building earthquake resilient houses.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240418130432_fc8b234ceca87dee4b99e897a485cef121fb953857fb61492a413fbfcc48360c.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20240418130432_fc8b234ceca87dee4b99e897a485cef121fb953857fb61492a413fbfcc48360c" data-rendition-name="original" width="2500" height="1667" loading="lazy" alt="Seto Machhindranath"> </figure>  The Janabahā Dyo chariot is pulled from Jamal, where his image was found by the farmer, through the historic heart of Kathmandu in a gala parade every year. The procession, accompanied by folk music ensembles and revellers, starts on the eighth day of the bright half of the month of Chaitra, and lasts up to a week (ending on Saturday this year). Hundreds of devotees pull the chariot along the streets as a way of expressing their gratitude to lord Karunāmaya for blessing them with compassion and well-being. Purna Ratna Vajrāchārya is an ordained priest who belongs to the clan responsible for taking care of Janabahā Dyo. He has been studying the design and architecture of the chariot for the past 40 years, and overseeing its construction for the past 15. He has learnt that the engineering principles of building the chariot are based on the mathematical system in which Buddhism is taught. For example, 365 pieces of wood are used in the chariot, each representing a day of the year. Each of the four wheels consist of 25 pieces of wood, totalling 100, representing completeness or fulfilment. The chariot is vertically divided into 13 sections, a parallel to the Buddhist concept of Trayodashi Bhuvana that describes the 13 steps that one must take to achieve the state of Nirvana.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240418130432_36d9964c9845f6d9a074786361fc5ab7d49138503ad162086998b731349b0ec0.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20240418130432_36d9964c9845f6d9a074786361fc5ab7d49138503ad162086998b731349b0ec0" data-rendition-name="original" width="2500" height="1668" loading="lazy" alt="Seto Machhindranath"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240418130432_2662753a9514a682ccdfd17bf05e2be3771183a68dc86b717ab67d9aad894563.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20240418130432_2662753a9514a682ccdfd17bf05e2be3771183a68dc86b717ab67d9aad894563" data-rendition-name="original" width="1668" height="2500" loading="lazy" alt="Seto Machhindranath"> </figure>  &nbsp;Exactly nine types of wood are used, which is the sum of the four base elements that make up the universe (earth, water, fire and air) and the five human senses. The height and length of the chariot is 32 arm’s length (hāt in Sanskrit), 14.8m. The number 32 represents the maximum number of auspicious and physical qualities one could possess to be considered an outstanding human being.&nbsp; Says Vajrācharya, “Observing how the chariot is built helps one learn the fundamental pillars of the Buddha’s teachings, and find an easier path to Nirvana.” The structural design of the nearly 15m wooden chariot is not only awe-inspiring but also gravity-defying. It leverages the pliancy of the materials used in its construction -- flexible joints tied with cane soaked in water for several days. The precise proportions of the chariot ensure great manoeuverability in the narrow streets along the route of the chariot procession that include some 90° bends, without colliding into houses.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240418130432_9f5c2943f5d6b3f0010d3d5213697549945e87a6f7d3d8cbadd69f0dea6c6e2c.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20240418130432_9f5c2943f5d6b3f0010d3d5213697549945e87a6f7d3d8cbadd69f0dea6c6e2c" data-rendition-name="original" width="2500" height="3750" loading="lazy" alt="Seto Machhindranath"> </figure>  Driving and steering the chariot with brute muscle power of the mirthful crowd is a seemingly impossible task. But this has been achieved year after year, despite the fact that the devotees who tug wildly at the ropes lassoed to the two front wheels, are most likely in high-spirits (pun intended). Sanjay Manandhar, a US-based technology entrepreneur, recounts how his high school physics teacher from Canada asked his students to go observe the locals build the chariots of Karunāmaya if they were interested in becoming engineers in the future.&nbsp; “That made no sense to me then, but, after all these decades, I now see clearly how the structural design of the chariot, adopted early on by our ancestors is full of earthquake-resilient properties that need to be applied in building houses in an earthquake-prone zone like Nepal,” says Manandhar. A highlight of the chariot festival is that human goddess Kumari makes an appearance at the final destination in Lagan, usually on the third day. This is only one of the 13 times that people get to see the Kumari outside her temple abode.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240418130432_08aa39f3f004a212b33c60a2840d6013110de15dd34a0288f699dd5fda8957ab.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20240418130432_08aa39f3f004a212b33c60a2840d6013110de15dd34a0288f699dd5fda8957ab" data-rendition-name="original" width="2500" height="1667" loading="lazy" alt="Seto Machhindranath"> </figure>  On the last day of the festival (Saturday), the image of lord Karunāmaya is carried on a palanquin by priests from Janabahā in a gala procession and brought back to his permanent residence at the temple in Kel Tol.&nbsp; The chariot festival is thought to have started during the reign of King Pratap Malla of Kantipur in the 17th century CE. For close to four centuries, the construction of the chariot and its operation has proven to be a phenomenal engineering feat, and the people’s faith in divinity means the tradition is alive.&nbsp; The essence of the colourful rituals and the religious beliefs of this ancient chariot festival is now all but lost. The logic, technology and practicality must be brought back to light, as they reflect the high civilisation and wisdom of our ancestors that we can leverage in modern times and into the future. &nbsp; Alok Tuladhar is a culture and heritage documentarian.

Kathmandu’s gravity-defying chariot festival

In the run-up to the third Nepal Investment Summit this weekend, there have been seminars, conferences and workshops where the discourse has revolved around the economy and the investment climate.
The consensus that Nepal needs foreign direct investments (FDI) to grow was repeated, and the familiar litany of reasons about why it has not been able to was discussed.&nbsp;
Policy advocates and regulators have understood that the lack of urgency is compounded by procedural inconsistencies, on top of the already deficient investment environment in the country.
It is a welcome change from what used to be flippantly accepting matters as given. There now seems to be a sense of urgency, with procedural inconsistencies and lack of harmonisation between various Acts and regulations openly discussed.&nbsp;
Government stakeholders also appear more willing to learn and attempt to be part of the solution. Whatever policy changes have been introduced in the past have been piecemeal and address the few rather than the entire industry. This left dual regulatory approaches aimed at similar players.&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/killing-investment-in-nepal-in-10-easy-steps">Killing investment in Nepal in 10 easy steps</a>, Dibesh Karmacharya
This time, unlike in the past two Summits, the government seems to be committed to amending 9 Acts, a positive step towards showing commitment to change. However, the deadline to do so during the winter session of Parliament is over. The option mooted has been to have it passed through ordinance, a lesser appealing step; albeit, a positive one moving forward.&nbsp;
To attract FDI in a competitive global market means that Nepal has to demonstrate that it is serious about bringing in investments with a more consultative and collaborative approach with investors. A departure from procedural to a result-oriented focus is needed.&nbsp;
To put issues in perspective, Nepal needs US$20 billion in investments to meet the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) targets by 2030. If net-zero decarbonisation targets are to be met by 2045, another US$7 billion will be required annually.&nbsp;
Looking at our investment history and poor government capital expenditure, the gap is long and wide. In fiscal year 2022-23 Nepal booked a lamentable ~$59 million in FDI (equity). Nepal is in fact the lowest market in South Asia for FDI with 0.3% of the regional average.&nbsp;
What is it that we can do to fill the gap?&nbsp;
First, we need to move away from the notion that Nepal only needs large investments. This has proven to be a mistake, and time series data have proven that smaller investments, in aggregate, make a larger impact on economies.&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/poor-cash-rich-nepal">Poor cash-rich Nepal</a>, Sonia Awale
We talk about an ‘enabling environment’ but without the right tools. We place restrictions on interest on debt ceiling (SOFR +5.5), without risk premium adjustments, we do not have an active secondary market for bond trading, nor do we have a yield curve, an integral part of the bond market, which is inhibiting us from tapping into the trillion dollar green bond market.&nbsp;
In order to attract green financing, Nepal needs to develop its bond market. Sovereign risk rating has been mooted and was expected to be operationalised before the Investment Summit.&nbsp;
However, to be rated in an adverse economic environment could further deteriorate investment potential due to a lesser-than-expected rating.&nbsp;
Hedging is another instrument that needs further research on. A commercial bank last year showcased the first risk-hedging mechanism for an investment of $8 million. This can be the beginning to expand on its modality. &nbsp;
Subordinated debt instruments have been introduced, but on a special nod basis, this now needs to be institutionalised as it is the most applicable form of investment after equity in a market that has volatile forex reserves.&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/invest-in-investment">Invest in investment</a>, Nepali Times
Viability Gap Funding has been introduced by multilateral development agencies implemented in solar installations. It is a tool to incentivise the private sector to invest in projects that are not financially lucrative initially, but have potential for profitability in the long run. This needs to be scaled up and replicated in sectors like infrastructure, where returns may not be immediate.
Moving forward, to attract FDI, Nepal needs to tap into the funds that are available for the growth of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and climate change. Alternative investments such as Private Equity Venture Capital (PEVC) have been around in a structured manner in Nepal for nearly a decade now.
These funds have blended finance components and have attracted climate funding as well. PEVC is a new asset class and can address the issues of penetrating into SME financing by incorporating environment, social and governance issues into their investment process.&nbsp;
SMEs are the backbone of any economy, PEVC comes with the ability not only to scale up the enterprise with risk capital, but with the ability to bring technical knowhow to enhance not only the enterprise but also the entrepreneur.&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/success-in-nepal-means-not-having-to-work">Success in Nepal means not having to work</a>, Anil Chitrakar
A differentiator from all other forms of financing available till date in Nepal. Blended finance is a way of de-risking investments, especially in frontier markets. Business Oxygen (BO2) is an example of blended finance with subordinated debt investments of IFC (World Bank Group) taking the lead and Climate Investment Funds along with FCDO as co-investors.&nbsp;
On a larger scale, the 216MW Upper Trisuli 1 is another example of blended finance with IFC, a Korean consortium and local investments. So far, we see that development finance Institutions have been taking the lead in Nepal as their risk appetite is greater than commercial investors and they are eager to help develop the financial markets.&nbsp;
In order to be sustainable, we need to step on this and attract commercial capital from all over the world. To do this there has to be political will to make that pivot.&nbsp;
Instead of being a means to an end, the two previous Investment Summits turned out to be intermittent and cosmetic, providing hardly any results. The third one’s success will depend on how the event will be implemented as a platform for continuous marketing for the country and facilitation for investors in future.&nbsp;
Nepal has outdone many countries in its macro-economic indicators, with sound forex reserves and a stellar history of debt payments to its creditors. This story needs to be propagated along with the drive for change to attract potential investors.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/alternative-investments-to-attract-fdi">Alternative investments to attract FDI</a>, Siddhant Raj Pandey

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