<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111015118/636d05ed9c7e80680e0a5f35jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1765" height="1000"/><figcaption>Fireflies in bushes along Phewa Lake at a resort that is promoting firefly tourism. Photos: KRISHNA MANI BARAL</figcaption></figure>Visitors from all over the world are attracted to Pokhara for its stunning mountain views and its relaxed lakeside life. But very few know about Pokhara’s vibrant nightlife: its <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/night-of-the-firefly/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/night-of-the-firefly/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1625458802772000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGypwhvNzYZ3CXYzoNflxjC6Cs8Jg">fireflies.</a>However, this July 4 on International Firefly Day just like last year, there will not be many to venture out beyond the city lights to admire the lakeside come alive with these glowing insects.“Pokhara could benefit from promoting firefly tourism just like in Japan, Taiwan and Malaysia have,” says conservationist Hum Gurung, who is now promoting firefly tourism in Malaysia as Regional Project Manager with Birdlife International Asia.A native of Sikles, Gurung grew up watching fireflies on the shores of Pokhara’s lakes as well as along streams in the mountains, and says some of the wetland habitats that fireflies prefer to congregate in should be protected.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111015118/636d05f09c7e80680e0a5f36jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1609" height="1000"><figcaption>Fireflies compete with light pollution from the tourist city's lake front.</figcaption></figure>In Japan, visitors actually have to buy tickets to enter firefly sanctuaries during the summer <a href="https://www.hisgo.com/us/destination-japan/blog/top_5_spots_in_japan_to_see_the_summer_fireflies.html" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.hisgo.com/us/destination-japan/blog/top_5_spots_in_japan_to_see_the_summer_fireflies.html&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1625458802773000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFnkRR1TvSt547SLYvqHKc5bJvLdg">Hotaru festival</a>. Gurung sees no reason why Pokhara cannot do the same.“Why should mountains be our only attraction?” he asks.Indeed, the Back To Nature Resort on the western edge of Phewa Lake is already doing just that. One humid monsoon night this week, the blinking lights of hundreds of fireflies made the forest glow, while the lucky few who had heard of the place gasped with awe.“We have tried not to publicise this too much, we want to practice sustainable eco-tourism,” says the resort’s Dambar Pun. “In fact, we now have domestic tourists who come here from all over Nepal, and even extend their stay. They cannot get enough of the fireflies.”The firefly’s blinking glow is a mechanism for mating and scaring off predators, and only happens a few weeks in a year in June-July. It therefore can be a part of a package of attractions for Pokhara visitors during the monsoon, Pun says.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111015118/636d05f39c7e80680e0a5f37jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1568" height="1000"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/03/world/fireflies-extinction-risk-scn/index.html" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/03/world/fireflies-extinction-risk-scn/index.html&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1625458802773000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH2HlYNBoGHEyWSICYgypPFoH-wNQ">Fireflies are actually beetles</a> from the family Lampyridae and have been in existence since the age of the dinosaurs. They evolved a unique chemical reaction called bioluminescence using calcium, magnesium and a catalyst called luciferin to emit the glow, but without giving off heat.Says butterfly expert Bhaiya Khanal, previously with the Natural History Museum: “Firefly tourism opens up a lot of opportunities including the possibility of finding more species. This, in turn, will promote their conservation.”The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-fading-light-of-nepals-fireflies/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-fading-light-of-nepals-fireflies/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1625458802773000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHEHvKhtSI6lRk1fHx42AG1CCgjFA">main threats to fireflies in Nepal</a> and elsewhere in the world are degradation of its wetland habitat, pesticide use, as well as light pollution that interferes with their mating signals. The climate crisis now also threatens all 2,200 firefly species so far identified. Fireflies have not been studied in detail in Nepal, and we do not even know how many species are found in the country.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111015118/636d05f69c7e80680e0a5f38jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1493" height="987"><figcaption></figcaption></figure>In Pokhara itself, the spread of tourism along the lakefront has added light pollution to the dangers of pesticide use and urban expansion into the forested slopes. Fireflies take a year in their metamorphosis life cycle between egg, larva and adult, for this they need clean water and dark space.However, ‘citizen scientists’ in 10 districts have been studying the insects and trying to spread awareness in communities about excess light pollution, <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/fireflies-extinction-2645035259.html" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.ecowatch.com/fireflies-extinction-2645035259.html&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1625458802773000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEf3YLpG4DuRkULyH1Xrjq_E7N3DA">pesticide use and habitat destruction</a>.Says Hum Gurung: “While developing firefly tourism, we must also be careful that tourism itself is not one of the reasons the lights go out on these magical insects.”

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Pokhara comes alive at night

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111156/636cd96b9c7e80680e092e9cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1200"/><figcaption></figcaption></figure>Many of us have fond childhood memories of the जुनकिरी (firefly), chasing the fascinating lightning bugs through fields and forests. Across the world and in Nepal, poets and singers have waxed eloquent about the blinking light of the nocturnal insects.But for <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-fading-light-of-nepals-fireflies/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">a creature so admired</a>, there has not been much of an effort to study and protect them. As elsewhere in the world, firefly numbers have declined sharply, even prompting the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) to set up a Firefly Specialist Group in 2018.“We grew up playing with fireflies, chasing them around Tundikhel, but those days are long gone,” laments Tirtha Bahadur Shrestha, a noted Nepali naturalist. “Fireflies need a pristine environment, and their very presence signifies undisturbed nature.”Fireflies belong to a family of beetles called Lampyridae and evolved alongside dinosaurs 100 million years ago. But habitat destruction, <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/pesticide-laced-vegetables-continue-to-poison,1555" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">rampant pesticide use</a>, light pollution and climate change now threaten to put the lights out on all 2,200 species of fireflies so far identified.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/between-existence-and-extinction-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Between existence and extinction in Nepal</a>, Sonia AwaleThe decline of fireflies indicates a degradation of the ecosystem, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=18976" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">especially of wetlands</a>. Yet, there has been no systematic study of the status, scope and habitat of these glow worms  in Nepal.“The number and diversity of firefly species are unknown in Nepal and researchers have not given priority to these insects,” says Hum Gurung of Singapore-based Birdlife International Asia, who is promoting firefly tourism in Malaysia, and developing a participatory citizen scientist group to study fireflies in Nepal.Gurung says firefly conservation must begin with first researching them and planning a sustainable eco-tourism model based on firefly viewing, just like the cherry blossom season in Japan or fall colours in New England.“Their commercial value will add to the efforts to protect them,” he adds.But in Nepal, these lightning bugs that were once ubiquitous in gardens, jungles, riverbanks, and even streets and playgrounds in the towns have all but disappeared. Where did they all go?In Pokhara, butterfly researcher Surendra Pariyar says: “I have nostalgic memories of fireflies from my childhood, but as the city’s concrete jungle spreads I hardly see even one firefly these days.”Read also: <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/what-is-the-buzz" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">What's the buzz?</a>, Sonia AwaleElsewhere in Japan, Southeast Asia and South America, the charismatic beetles with their bioluminescent courtship displays have turned into a major attraction for nature and wildlife tourists.Extra income from the firefly boat tours was crucial in curbing overfishing in Malaysia’s Kuala Selangor. Fireflies can promote unique, insect-based <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-other-attraction-the-night-sky/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">night tourism</a> with indigenous communities in Bardia and Chitwan in Nepal.Says butterfly expert Bhaiya Khanal, previously with the Natural History Museum: “Firefly tourism opens up a lot of opportunities including the possibility of finding more species. This, in turn, will promote their conservation.”Artificial light however is the biggest threat to fireflies as it reduces the beetle’s breeding success. Bright lights from buildings, vehicles, flashlights, and even cell phones can disrupt firefly mating.Nurturing and protecting the habitat is equally important, especially as the bugs spend most of their life cycle in a larval stage and require several months or even up to three years, to develop into adults.“We need to understand their lifecycle and its role in the ecosystem, what it feeds on and what preys upon them and our conservation and ecotourism efforts should take all of these into account,” adds Tirtha Bahadur Shrestha.Fireflies can be a ‘gateway bug’ to get tourists and locals interested in conserving many other insects, often ignored in favour of tigers, rhinos and wild elephants. Nepal is a model for wildlife conservation but its efforts in protecting smaller organisms are nearly non-existent.But first, proper conservation mechanisms must be put in place so that spreading firefly tourism does not end up destroying the very insect it is trying to save.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/csp2.391?utm_source=mp-fotoscapes" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">A new study</a> published in the journal Conservation Science and Practice provides the first comprehensive review of the geographic scope, magnitude, focal species, and other attributes of the major firefly tourism sites worldwide.The rapid proliferation of firefly tourism could mean new threats such as inadvertent trampling of female adults and degradation of larval habitats during tours.“Ultimately we have to change our destructive development methods and work on urban planning that takes into account the health of an ecosystem,” adds Hum Gurung, also co-author of the paper.Bhaiya Khanal agrees that conservation and development should go hand-in-hand. He says, “New infrastructure projects must not ignore these creatures, we must proactively protect them before they are forever gone.”<h2>What makes them glow?</h2><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111156/636cd96e9c7e80680e092e9djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1280" height="850"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Fireflies have a romantic morse code for every occasion, whether it is to find a mate, or to scare off predators. It could be a steady glow or a flashing light, differing in duration, timing, colour, and repetition.All 2,200 identified species have their own blinking codes, glowing to varying degrees during the larva stage but most lose their light-emitting capacity by adulthood. Fireflies are also active during the day when they use chemical signals or pheromones to attract partners.Fireflies also emit a lightning signal when threatened by predators, or to protect territory. The light comes from a chemical reaction called bioluminescence, and the glow is not hot, but cold to touch.The lower abdomen of a firefly consists of calcium, magnesium, and a naturally occurring chemical called luciferin. But it is a superoxide ion, an extra electron, that is responsible for pale yellow, green, sometimes orange or blue flickers during hot summer nights.The reaction can be harmful to living tissue, but it does not affect the insect because the reaction is contained and happens quickly. The toxic luciferin molecule could be the key to a breakthroughs in cancer research and therapy.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111156/636cd9729c7e80680e092e9ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="447" height="285"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><h2>Fireflies in Nepal</h2><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111156/636cd9749c7e80680e092e9fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2093" height="1372"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Only three species of fireflies have ever been recorded in Nepal, and even those were when the first British naturalists came to Kathmandu in the 1830s.Diaphanea marginellus was spotted at 2,000m in Kavre, so was Luciola ovalis. But the most common species found throughout Nepal is Luciola cruciate, pictured above.Fireflies prefer hot and humid conditions and are therefore found in the plains and the mid-mountains valleys of Nepal between July-August-- in ponds, streams, marshes and rivers. Fireflies usually are not found above 1,200m altitude, so Kathmandu would be at the upper limit of their habitat.

Sonia Awale

Night of the firefly

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111152/636cd8329c7e80680e092e2djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="666"/>Many of us have fond childhood memories of the जुनकिरी firefly, chasing these fascinating flashing bugs through fields and forests. Across the world and in Nepal, poets and singers have waxed eloquent about the blinking light of these nocturnal insects.But for a creature so adored, there has not been much of an effort to study the science and chemistry behind their luminescence, their distribution, or why they have declined sharply in number.Indeed, the bugs that were once ubiquitous in gardens, jungles, riverbanks, streets and playgrounds in Nepal have all but disappeared. Where did they all go?Fireflies belong to a family of beetles called Lampyridae and existed alongside dinosaurs 100 million years ago. But habitat destruction, rampant pesticide use, light pollution and climate change now threaten to put the lights out on all 2,200 species of fireflies so far identified.Fireflies are also ecologically important species as their decline indicate the degrading quality of wetlands. And yet, there is no detailed study about the status of the species in Nepal, their scope and habitat."Thousands of firefly species are found globally but the number of species and their diversity are unknown in Nepal. This is sad and researchers have not given any priority to these insects," says Hum Gurung, Regional Project Manager with Birdlife International Asia who is promoting firefly tourism in Malaysia.In the recent years, these charismatic beetles have turned into a major attraction for nature and wildlife tourists. In fact, their bioluminescent courtship displays draw over one million tourists annually to sites located in at least 12 countries, mostly in the Southeast Asia and North America.A new study published on the journal Conservation Science and Practice provides the first comprehensive review of the geographic scope, magnitude, focal species, and other attributes of the major firefly tourism sites worldwide.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111152/636cd8349c7e80680e092e2ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="893" height="796"><figcaption>Tourism threatens many stages in the firefly life cycle.</figcaption></figure>Gurung, who is a co-author of the study, says that the rapid proliferation of firefly tourism provides a timely opportunity to examine how such activities may impact local firefly populations, and to highlight the biological factors that make certain species especially vulnerable to tourism-associated threats.Here in Nepal, fireflies can promote a unique, insect-based night tourism that also promote the sky at night. These can bring economic, social, and psychological benefits to local communities and tourists alike.Fireflies can also be a ‘gateway bug’ to get tourists and locals alike interested in conserving many other insects, often ignored in favor of large and small charismatic mammals.But first, proper conservation mechanism must be put in place so that spreading firefly tourism does not end up destroying the very insect it is trying to promote and save.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111152/636cd8379c7e80680e092e2fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2456" height="1632">“In Mexico, the rapid growth of firefly tourism over the past decade is thrilling but also alarming,” says co-author Tania López-Palafox. “We’re glad people can experience one of the world’s greatest natural wonders. But we also want to make sure the fireflies are still around for future generations to enjoy.”Lead author Sara M Lewis (co-chair of the IUCN SSC Firefly Specialist Group formed in 2018) of the Tufts University has spent three decades studying fireflies and highlights the need to recognise ecological requirements across all firefly life stages.The report further recommends minimising light pollution (bright lights from buildings, vehicles, flashlights, and even cell phones can disrupt firefly courtship rituals) to promote breeding success of firefly adults and protecting nearby habitat as the bugs spend most of their life cycle in a larval stage and require several months or even years to develop into adult form.In some sites, firefly populations have been threatened by tourists inadvertently trampling females and degrading larval habitats during their visits. A well-managed tour with trained guides is a prerequisite for sustainable firefly tourism. So is local communities educated about and motivated to protect firefly populations.Says co-author Wan F A Jusoh: “Local communities are the guardians of fireflies, and their stories and local knowledge carry the power to help protect them.”

The fading light of Nepal’s fireflies

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;