<figure><img width="1198" height="1227" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111016114/636d13819c7e80680e0a9926jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: BIKRAM RAI/ NEPALI TIMES ARCHIVES</figcaption></figure>Nepal could lose Rs142 billion a year in wasted surplus energy if the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/just-do-it/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC)</a> project designed to upgrade the electricity grid and highways is not endorsed by Parliament.
Nepal is currently generating 2,000MW of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/manpower-and-hydropower/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">hydroelectricity</a> with an additional 2,500MW under construction. This figure will soar to 7,300MW by 2025 as per Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) estimates.Presently, Nepal consumes 1,500MW of electricity during the peak season, which is increasing by 20% every year. At this rate, in the next four years, the peak demand will be at 2,600MW, which means there will be an excess of 4,700MW.  
Nepal can export this surplus power to India and there are already agreements in place to facilitate trade between the two countries, but the existing Dhalkebar-Muzaffarpur cross border <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/mcc-damned-if-we-do-damned-if-we-dont/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">transmission line</a> can only handle 800MW each way. 
“If Nepal is unable to sell excess energy, we will be losing Rs142 billion every year. At a time when we are lagging in infrastructure, we shouldn’t stop the MCC from being approved,” says Dinesh Shrestha, chair of the Federation of Nepalese Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FNCCI).
FNCCI, Confederation of Nepalese Industries (CNI), Nepal Chamber of Commerce, Federation of Contractors’ Associations of Nepal, Independent Energy Producers’ Association and Nepal-US Chamber of Commerce and Industry have submitted a memorandum to Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba urging the government to stop delaying <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/missing-links-in-nepals-mcc-debate/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the five-year compact</a> and implement it soon. 
This is the private sector’s second memorandum to the government in a month. The group also states that some 7,000 Nepalis will be employed during the construction phase of the MCC, which also includes the upgrade of arterial highways to facilitate efficient transportation. The FNCCI memo comes just before the arrival in Kathmandu on Wednesday of US Assistant Secretary for South and Central Asian Affairs, Donald Lu during which he is expected to discuss the MCC ratification with Prime Minister Deuba and other party leaders.It is an indication of the importance the US attaches to the project that Deputy Assistant Secretary for South ans Central Asian Affairs Kelly Keiderling also arrives in Kathmandu on Thursday. Deuba met US President Joe Biden at the COP26 Glasgow summit two weeks ago, and revealed that he and Maoist leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal had written jointly to the US government saying the MCC would be ratified. But the project has become such a political hot potato in Nepal that Dahal quickly backtracked, clarifying that he had only said that it needed amendments before being passed. A large chunk of the US-aided $500 million grant project is set aside to build the Kathmandu-Hetauda-Butwal 400KVa transmission line which will distribute electricity from existing and new hydropower plants on the Budi Gandaki, Trisuli, Kali Gandaki, Marsyangdi, Kosi, and Tamakosi corridors, and also connect to a high-capacity line to Gorakhpur so Nepal can sell surplus monsoon electricity to India.  
In fact, in anticipation of the MCC project being completed, the NEA <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/india-nepal-sign-power-exchange-deal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">signed an agreement</a> with the state-run Power Grid Corporation of India (POWERGRID) for the Butwal-Gorakhpur cross border transmission line extension two months ago in September, ahead of MCC vice president <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/mcc-ball-in-nepals-court/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Fatema Z Sumar's visit to Nepal</a>.
But the MCC, the biggest grant aid Nepal has ever received has become the victim of intense power struggle and political infighting within the country. It was first weaponised to unseat K P Oli and now <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/mcc-row-rocks-nepals-ruling-coalition/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">threatens to split the ruling coalition</a> led by Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba. 
The project is seen by the critics as part of America’s Indo-Pacific Strategy to counter China’s Belt Road Initiative. The anti-MCC rhetoric has gained such momentum that the public is convinced it supersedes Nepal’s Constitution and is anti-national, forcing even the staunch supporters from speaking in its favour.
Adds FNCCI’s Dinesh Shrestha: “The MCC is crucial for Nepal’s energy sector and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/knowing-whats-good-for-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">is to our benefit</a>. Moreover, this is a grant, not a loan. Further delaying and cancelling the compact will <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/mcc-row-damages-nepals-credibility/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">tarnish Nepal’s image and credibility</a> in the world community.”
MCC or no MCC, one thing is for sure. Nepal must build transmission lines and upgrade its electricity grid one way or the other so as not to waste surplus energy it is set to generate in the near future. 
Alternatively, experts say, the government must work immediately to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/good-cop-bad-cop/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">electrify transport and cooking</a> for domestic consumption of surplus power and reduce its import bill on petroleum products and LPG.

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The cost of no MCC

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141148/636d01db9c7e80680e0a364djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption></figcaption></figure>“Countries knock at our doors all the time for capital, as it is getting harder and harder to obtain development funds. We are holding $500 million for Nepal. We cannot wait forever. When will it be the right time for Nepal?”Fatema Z Sumar, Vice President of Compact Operations at the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) appeared mystified about why a country like Nepal that needs all the help it can get to develop its infrastructure, should be so hesitant about the grant her government is offering.Sumar was on the final day of her <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/mcc-row-rocks-nepals-ruling-coalition/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/mcc-row-rocks-nepals-ruling-coalition/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1631579093888000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHAfb7xioCyDtl5OJ53aqyeI5-LuA">four-day visit to Nepal</a> on Sunday, speaking at an engagement with opinion makers. There was a litany of questions from across the table, and Sumar sounded like someone who is getting somewhat jaded answering the same questions over and over again in Kathmandu.“No, the MCC is not part of the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/between-two-oceans/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/between-two-oceans/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1631579093888000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFfIGiI1YhN4TBrqt-_uVwcnhLEPg">Indo-Pacific Strategy</a> and there is no US Army involvement.”“This is a treaty between two countries and has gone through the Obama, the Trump and now the Biden administrations.”“In order to make this a treaty, the Nepal government wanted to ratify it through Parliament. So, we are waiting for that.”Sumar was a former assistant secretary for South and Central Asia at the US State Department before joining the MCC. Her family is Malaysian Indian, so she understands the region well, but she was hearing in Nepal some of the same political rhetoric that led to the Sri Lankans cancelling the MCC last year for being ‘against the national interest’.MCC makes three types of grants: compacts, threshold programs and concurrent compacts for regional investment. Nepal’s grant is a five-year compact agreement with the MCC that allows an eligible country to fund specific programs targeted at reducing poverty and stimulating economic growth.The concept of the MCC is to make US development assistance ‘smarter’, and to study a country’s bottlenecks so that catalytic investment can allow it to take an economic leap. A panel of Nepali and American experts concluded in 2017 that increasing hydropower transmission capacity and upgrading highways would be most cost-effective, at a time when the country was suffering 12-hour daily power cuts.When a country applies for a grant from the MCC, the board examines its performance based on 20 policy indicators, and selects based on policy performance. The MCC says its grants are given to country-driven and country-led investments and infrastructure priorities for achieving sustainable economic growth and poverty reduction, and Nepal qualified.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141148/636d01df9c7e80680e0a364ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="998"><figcaption>MCC vice president Fatema Sumar (third from left) with Prime Minister Deuba on Saturday at Baluwatar. Photo: PMO</figcaption></figure>So far MCC has approved $13.7 billion in compacts and $631 million in threshold programs worldwide. After Sri Lanka pulled out, Nepal is the only South Asian country on the list of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-millennium-challenge/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-millennium-challenge/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1631579093888000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHcCgQFuOb2-re-ZURkglqZhwDvTg">MCC-approved compacts</a>.“The $500 million we are holding for Nepal is money not given to other countries which need to get out of poverty,” said Sumar’s colleague Jonathan A Brooks at the interaction. Although Brown said he had no idea where the confusion about the MCC having a military component comes from, a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/knowing-whats-good-for-nepal/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/knowing-whats-good-for-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1631579093888000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHV-jTWUQwTz4eLLTh_R5gdfjVGwQ">comment by US Under Secretary of State David J Ranz</a> in 2019 that the MCC was indeed a part of the US <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/between-two-oceans/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/between-two-oceans/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1631579093888000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFfIGiI1YhN4TBrqt-_uVwcnhLEPg">Indo-Pacific Strategy</a> did a lot of self-inflicted damage.Sumar and Brooks fielded <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/post-truth-politics-in-nepal/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/post-truth-politics-in-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1631579093888000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEL3a5V092kNi8iXts-zWiYBTZWOA">other questions</a> that had become familiar to them during their stay in Kathmandu with answers like: the agreement with Nepal prohibits army involvement, security issues are totally for Nepal government to oversee, the compact has no provisions that contradict Nepal’s laws, the project is not above Nepal’s Constitution, and international law would apply to resolve any disputes.A major chunk of the $500 million MCC grant will go to build the Kathmandu-Hetauda-Butwal 400KV transmission line to distribute 3,000MW which will come on stream in the next three years from new <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/decentralising-hydropower/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/decentralising-hydropower/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1631579093888000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGKA68VJytSmPpVqeXiamgpi0kCgQ">hydropower plants</a>. The line will also connect to a high-capacity electricity corridor to Gorakhpur so Nepal can <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/mcc-row-damages-nepals-credibility/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/mcc-row-damages-nepals-credibility/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1631579093888000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEoVnLVfqbE4et0DScH8cbve0ffag">sell surplus monsoon electricity</a> to India in future.This week, the Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) signed an agreement with the state-run Power Grid Corporation of India (POWERGRID) for the Butwal-Gorakhpur cross border transmission line extension in anticipation of the MCC project being completed.Sumar has seen several changes in government after she started coming to Nepal for the MCC. Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba and his predecessor K P Oli were both in favour of the MCC, but other Communist partners in the ruling coalition are against it.As a descendant of an immigrant family herself, Sumar says she understands that poverty is not insurmountable, and can be prevented with the right government investment at the right time. She calls herself a “development diplomat”, and feels that economic growth built on better infrastructure would also bring Nepal stability.“The MCC will create many thousands of jobs for Nepalis at a time when the pandemic is creating losses of jobs and livelihoods,” she says, adding that when President John F Kennedy launched a major global drive to help developing countries in the early 1960s, Nepal was one of the first countries to receive the support.The criteria Nepal fulfilled to receive the MCC grant was its democratic polity, guarantees of basic freedoms, and protection of human rights. Sumar underlined the fact that the MCC would also help Nepal put renewable energy infrastructure in place that could be an example for a world coming to terms with climate change.The MCC project has become a victim of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/knowing-whats-good-for-nepal/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/knowing-whats-good-for-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1631579093888000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHV-jTWUQwTz4eLLTh_R5gdfjVGwQ">extreme political polarisation</a> as opponents to K P Oli used the MCC to unseat him, and now it threatens to split the ruling coalition. The anti-MCC rhetoric had been so effective in convincing the cadre and public that it is anti-national, that even supporters in Deuba’s Nepali Congress, Oli’s UML and other public figures and intellectuals are afraid to speak in favour.Social media is full of posts that say Nepal will become ‘another Afghanistan’ if Parliament ratifies the MCC. But now that Sumar and her MCC team has left, the ball is back in the court of the political class in Kathmandu to ensure that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/power-politics-delays-mcc-in-nepal/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/power-politics-delays-mcc-in-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1631579093888000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHlQppZeGXNXQbC5_D2GZNFz2URgw">Nepal has the capacity</a> to distribute the electricity it generates in future.

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MCC ball in Nepal’s court

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108151128/636a67bb9c7e80680e0599f2jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3000" height="1668"/><figcaption>Illustration: BHANU BHATTARAI</figcaption></figure>It is the biggest amount granted to Nepal for a specific project by a bilateral development partner. But the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) project <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-millennium-challenge/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">has become the centre of a row</a> between two factions of the Nepal Communist Party, and stalled proceedings at the Central Committee meeting of the ruling party last week, raising questions about Nepal’s credibility.The major chunk of the grant is supposed to be spent on the Kathmandu-Hetauda-Butwal 400KVa transmission line which will eventually evacuate electricity generated from <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/decentralising-hydropower/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">hydropower plants</a> on the Budi Gandaki, Trisuli, Kali Gandaki, Marsyangdi, Kosi, and Tamakosi corridors. Another component will go for upgrading key highways.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-millennium-challenge/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A millennium challenge</a>, EditorialHitendradev Shakya, a transmission line specialist says this power link will form the backbone of Nepal's national grid. "It is imperative that Nepal starts building this, with or without American aid," he says.Hydropower projects that will produce a total of 330MW power are under construction in Rasuwa and Nuwakot on the Bhote Kosi, and a further 500MW of electricity will come from schemes under construction. Transmission lines for 220KVa have already been built to feed the power to Kathmandu Valley, but these will only serve power plants under construction. More transmission lines will be needed for future power plants, and also for possible export to India. If not, electricity generated, especially during the monsoon, could go waste.The Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) has already made Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) to buy about 6,000MW of electricity from private operators, but the transmission lines to distribute it are lagging behind. NEA wants another transmission link to bring power from plants on the Tama Kosi to Kathmandu and to eastern Nepal via Hetauda, and export the surplus to India through Butwal.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-in-2030/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal in 2030</a>, Sanghamitra SubbaHowever, at the NCP Central Committee last week there was intense debate between those for and against the MCC. Some prominent leaders like Bhim Rawal, Deb Gurung and Yogesh Bhattarai objected to the MCC on grounds that it was a part of the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/between-two-oceans/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">US Indo-Pacific Strategy</a> that they see as being directed against China.The meeting could not come to an agreement, and decision on it was passed to the party secretariat. Some said the sabre rattling in the Central Committee was just populist posturing to appear nationalist.<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.mcc.gov/where-we-work/country/nepal" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The MCC</a> was established in 2004 by the US Congress to help developing nations reduce poverty through financial aid. In August 2017, the MCC Board in the US approved a $500 million grant to Nepal to improve Nepal's energy and road infrastructure.Experts say that arguing about a bilateral project already agreed upon could raise questions about Nepal’s credibility in the international arena. Whether or not MCC is a part of America's Indo-Pacific Strategy is an old debate, and Minister for Foreign Affairs Pradeep Gyawali has maintained it is not. He visited Washington DC last year and met Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to push the project forward."Either the leaders should give alternatives, or stop objecting to this grant,” says economist Biswa Poudel.This year several high-profile American officials have visited Nepal, including the Indo-Pacific Commander Philip A Davidson, Deputy Assistant Secretary Joseph Felter, and Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia David J Ranz. The visits have bolstered the view that the MCC is indeed a US move to counter China’s Belt Road Initiative in Nepal. In fact Ranz actually admitted to the Nepali media that it was.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-now-has-to-balance-not-just-india-and-china-but-also-the-west/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal now has to balance not just India and China, but also the West</a>, Bhairaja PandayLast June, a report by the American Department of Defence identified the Indo-Pacific Strategy as a military move to project American power in the Pacific and Indian Oceans and a pillar of American foreign policy in the region.However, international relations expert Tika Dhakal believes the MCC should be separated from American military strategy: "It is not beneficial for Nepal to be a part of the military gameplan of a foreign power, and America should not include MCC under its Indo-Pacific strategy."The other sensitivity to Nepal is that the transmission line link to India could make Nepal even more dependent on its southern neighbour. "No aid comes without strings attached. But the Nepal government should be clever enough to use aid like this for its own benefit,” Dhakal says.Another controversy surrounds a clause in the agreement that the project must be ratified by Nepal's Parliament. The Cabinet had planned to table it in the House last year, but ex-Speaker Krishna Bahadur Mahara did not include it in the list of subjects, allegedly on purpose.Khadga Bahadur Bista of Millennium Challenge Nepal Development Committee says that if it is not approved in the ongoing winter session of Parliament, the project may be dropped. "It is due to start end-June 2020. If Parliament does not approve it now, it will be difficult to stick to that date.”Even those in favour of the MCC say Nepal should not have accepted the clause about Parliament ratification. The other sticking point may be to get India’s prior approval for the 400KVa transmission line. The MCC Compact states that if the project is not finished in five years, the money goes back to the US treasury, and the delays could scuttle the project.

MCC row damages Nepal's credibility

It was 30 years ago this month that investment into ‘Baby Arun’, the 201MW first phase of the run-of-river Arun III project, was brought to a screeching halt when the World Bank officially withdrew its support. This brought about profound and fundamental changes in the way Nepal’s power sector subsequently developed. Nepalis suffered debilitating power outages between 2008-2016 due to shortages attributable to the cancellation. At the same time, the gap left by Baby Arun was filled by private sector investment in ways that were not obvious in 1995. It took 30 years, but in many ways Nepal’s power sector is more healthy today than it has ever been, and likely better than if the project was built as planned. At a projected budget of $1.08 billion, Baby Arun would have cost the equivalent of Nepal’s entire annual government expenditure in 1995. It was to be funded by concessional grants and loans from multilateral and bilateral funders, including the World Bank, Asian Development Bank (ADB), KfW, and investment by the government itself. At the time, Nepal’s total electricity generation capacity was only 230MW, and the trajectory of the power sector changed dramatically following the cancellation. In the past 30 years, $5.4 billion has been invested in the power sector led by private investors, and much of it from domestic banks and pension funds (table, right).  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250829150840_c13d6f9f34d7163832b3089eabdad6f20d2d5cef3a53039e0432add2be6c32f0.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250829150840_c13d6f9f34d7163832b3089eabdad6f20d2d5cef3a53039e0432add2be6c32f0" data-rendition-name="original" width="984" height="521" loading="lazy" alt="30 years after Baby Arun"> </figure>  Nearly 70% of the new megawatts generated were by private independent power producers (IPP) in the past 30 years, while the Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) and its subsidiary companies added 30% of new capacity. Almost 80% of total debt financing came from domestic banks and employee retirement funds. International assistance for power generation dropped dramatically over this time, accounting for only about 15% of investment. Before 1995 new power projects used to be entirely dependent on foreign aid. Since 1995, 63% of new generation came from 171 small hydropower projects with an average capacity of 12MW, while 4% was from 21 solar photovoltaic and biomass projects developed by local IPPs.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250829150844_5bc299fc78be90b95ce4727b0b3bdaa4542e17e126718cc8725d136630ffc097.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250829150844_5bc299fc78be90b95ce4727b0b3bdaa4542e17e126718cc8725d136630ffc097" data-rendition-name="original" width="988" height="503" loading="lazy" alt="30 years after Baby Arun"> </figure>  Over three decades, investment in Nepal’s power supply came primarily from new actors that had never before been involved in this sector. The rate of electrification rose from 10% to close to 100% -- sufficient to meet domestic needs during most of the year, and in 2024 made Nepal a net exporter of power to India for the first time in its history. As practically all the new investment in this period went into run-of-river hydro and solar projects, rather than into hydropower reservoirs with seasonal storage, Nepal continues to rely on imports from India during the dry winter months. Surplus electricity generation for export during the monsoon is slated to grow rapidly as another 200 solar and hydro projects are nearing completion of construction, with over 5,000MW of power capacity. Private Power The cancellation of Baby Arun inadvertently accelerated the entry of the private sector into Nepal’s power generation. The government enacted the Electricity Act in 1992 to attract private IPPs and diversify away from total dependence from international aid, but had been struggling for several years to conclude the first agreement with the 60MW Khimti Project. There remained a large gap between the tariff that the government thought was reasonable versus what was demanded by the Norwegian investor Statkraft, and the private sector arms of the World Bank and ADB that were financing the project. The shock of World Bank withdrawal from Baby Arun put tremendous pressure on the government, then led by the UML as it is now. The Bank’s decision to terminate its involvement was ostensibly, at least partially, taken in response to a letter critiquing the project sent by the UML while it was in the opposition.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250829150848_7fb3641d776fe86a09ad60a758f7e16660a409fdb15e541644f13646b0894347.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20250829150848_7fb3641d776fe86a09ad60a758f7e16660a409fdb15e541644f13646b0894347" data-rendition-name="original" width="949" height="446" loading="lazy" alt="30 years after Baby Arun"> <figcaption>BAD NEWS: Newspaper clippings from the early 90s on tender announcement ahead of loan approval (left) and secrecy surrounding environmental assessment (centre) of Arun III before its eventual cancellation in August 1995.</figcaption> </figure>  The government was forced to soften its position and agree to the investors’ terms following the cancellation of Baby Arun. It directed NEA to sign a power purchase agreement (PPA) with Khimti. It was concluded in January 1996, and this was followed by a second PPA in July 1996 with Panda Energy, the American developer of the 45MW Upper Bhotekosi project. The expensive USD-denominated agreements to buy power from two international private producers, with price escalation clauses tied to the New York Consumer Price Index, sent alarm bells ringing. There was worry that the country was heading towards unaffordable tariff rates for the consumer and potential bankruptcy for NEA as a result of inevitable future weakening of the Nepali Rupee. The government had strong-armed NEA into signing these agreements, and realised that concessionary financing terms that Nepal was used to receiving for public sector projects such as Baby Arun and Kali Gandaki A, that included below-market interest rates and 40 years repayment period with a 10 year grace period before starting repayment, were not the norm for private sector investors. Nepal’s status as a less than attractive destination for foreign investment meant that the country had few options but to accept expensive dollar PPAs from international developers with the high commercial interest rates and short repayment periods imposed by their banks because of high investment risks. In the end, the government ended up having to additionally provide a sovereign guarantee in order to close the deal at the insistence of the lenders – committing it to repayment in case NEA defaulted on paying the IPPs. It is reasonable to assume that the extraordinarily high political cost of agreeing to the PPA terms would have meant that no government would have willingly agreed to them in 1995 had it not suffered the trauma of the loss of concessionary-financed public sector projects as large as the Baby Arun. It has taken NEA 25 years to consider offering dollar-denominated PPAs again: to cover the foreign exchange portion of the investment in the 216MW Upper Trisuli-1 and 120MW Rasuwa-Bhotekosi Hydropower projects. It seemed unlikely at the time, but it turned out that the dire situation Nepal found itself in 1995 planted the seed to mobilise investment for affordable power from within the country. Double Whammy After the dual shock of first losing investment in Baby Arun and having to sign expensive power purchase agreements with international IPPs, the first proposal for an alternative strategy to mitigate the risk of foreign currency investment into hydropower projects came from a group of engineers within the Arun III team at NEA. Led by <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=4900">Deputy Director Damber Bahadur Nepali,</a> engineers convinced the leadership that NEA needed to invest in a subsidiary company to build a series of locally-designed and domestically-financed projects that would have lower cost with rupee-denominated PPAs. They registered the Chilime Hydropower Company Limited (CHCL) in October 1995 with 51% shares from NEA, 25% from its employees, and 24% available for the general public, 10% of which was prioritised for local residents at the project site. The 22.1MW project is in Rasuwa on a tributary of the Trisuli, and mobilised debt financing from the Employee Provident Fund, which manages retirement savings for employees of the government, public enterprises, and private sector institutions. CHCL’s experience showed that NEA employees themselves believed that individual hydropower projects with operational independence from NEA could be developed profitably in Nepal by its own engineers -- and they were willing to put their own money on the line. Chilime also demonstrated that there was money in the country, particularly with retirement funds, looking for opportunities for long-term investments. Following completion of Chilime in 2003, CHCL led the formation of three other NEA subsidiary companies that completed construction in 2023 and 2024, producing 168.3MW using fully rupee-tied investment. NEA’s largest subsidiary, the Upper Tamakosi Hydropower Limited, completed construction of its 456MW plant in 2021.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250829160812_ce9ab8b49c598970db3f5bf0a079061ef52f153b28d9f4ead2bb1b26bfd7c2f3.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250829160812_ce9ab8b49c598970db3f5bf0a079061ef52f153b28d9f4ead2bb1b26bfd7c2f3" data-rendition-name="original" width="3000" height="1571" loading="lazy" alt="30 Years after Baby Arun"> <figcaption>DAMNED: The $700 million 456MW Upper Tamakosi built entirely with domestic funds before it was destroyed by the September floods last year. </figcaption> </figure>  There were some delays and cost overruns on this run-of-river project, the largest in the country with a final cost of over $700 million -- all of it sourced domestically. The five subsidiary companies launched by NEA have produced almost two times as much new power as NEA has over the past 30 years. Seven other NEA subsidiaries are currently constructing projects to add another 474MW to the national grid. But even more important than NEA subsidiaries have been local IPPs: Nepali companies which have over the past three decades enthusiastically entered the hydropower sector. From a regulatory perspective, the credit for mobilising domestic private investment to engage in power generation goes to Minister of Water Resources Shailaja Acharya, who in 1998 offered a flat feed-in-tariff of Rs4/kWh for hydropower projects under 10MW. This upfront offer removed a major barrier that early developers had faced of having to spend money to carry out a detailed feasibility study before they could even start tariff negotiations with NEA. She had laid the foundation stone of the Chilime project, and proved to be the champion of opening up the sector for domestic IPPs. The guarantee of a PPA with a fixed tariff, irrespective of project specifications, gave small power developers the confidence to apply for survey licenses and invest in feasibility studies so they could directly approach commercial banks and make a case for their project producing required revenue to repay loans. Domestic IPPs started adding power to the national grid in 2002. Their contribution was initially modest, and first projects were small and commercial lenders who took time to be confident about providing debt financing to a sector which had previously not been considered suitable for private sector investment. While the first 10 years were slow, with less than 10MW being added to the grid each year, this increased twenty fold over the following ten years, resulting in the equivalent of a Baby Arun being added by Nepali IPPs to the grid each year. A total of 84 IPPs added 232MW, 328 MW, 454MW, and 400MW of new generation to the grid in 2021-2024 (graph). There was explosive, exponential growth as domestic developers have surged ahead to account for 76% of the new megawatts added to the grid since 2020, compared to 24% by NEA and its subsidiary companies. The megawatts that IPPs are adding have followed the classic ‘hockey stick curve’ with the ‘breakout point’, signaling the rapid growth phase in 2020. Private producers are expected to accelerate new generation in the coming years with 300 solar and hydropower projects adding 11,000MW. Another 166 hydropower and 96 solar projects are currently in the survey stage, and are in line to add another 11,000MW to the construction pipeline. One major challenge is finding financing required for the projects. Domestic investment will no longer be sufficient to finance this ambitious pipeline of renewable energy projects. Project developers as well as NEA and the Electricity Regulatory Commission will have to leverage their substantial experience accumulated through the construction of over 200 projects to attract regional and international investment and hedge the risks of dollar-denominated PPAs. Following the cancellation of Baby Arun, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/people-power/decentralising-power-in-nepal">Nepal developed a highly distributed power sector</a>. The national electricity grid is currently supplied with power from a remarkably decentralised array of hundreds of hydropower and solar photovoltaic projects spread across 43 districts and all seven provinces.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250829150848_0c3aa66b34bfb08380a624f397bf3ebb4126f4d6b41a26115848b496876f501b.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20250829150848_0c3aa66b34bfb08380a624f397bf3ebb4126f4d6b41a26115848b496876f501b" data-rendition-name="original" width="1228" height="867" loading="lazy" alt="30 years after Baby Arun"> </figure>  This presents a sharp contrast to the pathway of a few large public sector hydropower projects with a sprinkling of private sector projects that was envisioned as part of NEA’s investment planning when Baby Arun was being considered the front runner for investment. The strategy then was to allow public sector investment in a few large hydropower projects with thermal plants to fill the gap. Knowing what we know now about acceleration of climate change impacts and increased extreme weather events, following this path would have made Nepal’s power sector highly vulnerable. Decentralised generation greatly improves the resilience of Nepal’s power supply as damage to power plants in one part of the country need not affect other areas that have their own generation. Following the investment plan where over two thirds of the country’s power supply would have come from power plants on the Arun River, would have greatly imperiled Nepal’s energy security. All rivers in Nepal are susceptible to flooding from cloudbursts made more frequent by climate change. The Arun River which is fed by glaciers in Tibet is also at risk to glacial lake outburst floods. Bikash Pandey is Director of Clean Energy and Circular Economy at Winrock International. People Power is his regular column in Nepali Times on global energy issues relevant to Nepal. <h2>Decentralised and Diversified</h2> In the 30 years since the cancellation of ‘Baby Arun’: Hydropower projects constructed cover capacities ranging from less than 1MW to 456MW and developed by IPPs from across the country with strong local involvement in purchasing equity shares. Renewable energy sources contributed to the generation mix through solar IPPs that further contribute to climate resilience, and cover shortfalls during low rainfall. The government is committed to solar contributing 10% of the power on the grid. Increasing solar beyond this target and providing incentives to project developers to invest in utility-scale battery storage would further improve resilience. BIG ARUN: The 900MW Arun III project under construction since 2018 at Num in Sankhuwasabha (pictured, below) is a separate initiative by a different project developer using a different financing modality. The ‘Baby Arun’ version of Arun III was cancelled in 1995.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250829150852_df534df5166eb5a9bb4cbe101627bdec7ac1df2a405a9d3988d1c86fcc8ecdeb.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20250829150852_df534df5166eb5a9bb4cbe101627bdec7ac1df2a405a9d3988d1c86fcc8ecdeb" data-rendition-name="original" width="1750" height="1312" loading="lazy" alt="30 Years after Baby Arun"> </figure>

30 years after Baby Arun

This is the 72nd episode of Diaspora Diaries, a Nepali Times series in collaboration with Migration Lab providing a platform to share experiences of living, working and studying abroad. My father ran a store and that is where I spent all my time till Grade 6. Doing my homework. Serving customers. I then moved to my maternal grandparents’ house because I used to get along with my cousin who was a year older than me. We did everything together, and were best friends. We took turns studying: I was a night owl, and he was an early riser. Before I went to bed after studying all night, I woke him up. My mother was 44 when I was born, the same year my eldest brother got married. My sister-in-law becoming a part of our family was how my mother referenced my age. I liked making money, and was always a hustler. In Grade 7, I learnt to handle a tractor and helped my brother-in-law to plough, earning Rs10 a day. As I got better, he paid me more. By Grade 9, I was already making Rs500 per day, but had to slow down to prepare for my exams. From an early age I knew I did not want a 9-5 job. There just wasn’t enough money in it. I wanted to get into business, and compared my brother who worked in the post office and what businessmen made. It did not help that my brother was honest, and never took bribes. A friend and I made money selling cheap Chinese phones at a premium to our friends. We blasted music on the phones and pretended that we were giving them a discount. After SLC, I started teaching math and other subjects. I was soon a shareholder in the same school and in the evening I was involved in our family’s floriculture business, growing amaranth and marigold for garlands.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250831020844_1b54b999d67122a50c4c7e6204cc737bcc99bf2a68db6499a4566a7f61a880b4.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250831020844_1b54b999d67122a50c4c7e6204cc737bcc99bf2a68db6499a4566a7f61a880b4" data-rendition-name="original" width="955" height="1314" loading="lazy" alt="Diaspora Diaries 72"> </figure>  It was then that a friend suggested we learn the Korean language. We could be earning significantly higher in Korea for similar efforts. I had no plans to go abroad but he convinced me. I did not know anything about Korea, and was scolded at the language institute when I asked someone to point Korea on the map.&nbsp; It was only there that I learnt you had to pass an exam for the Korean Employment Permit System (EPS), and pay for language classes. After a week, I decided it was not for me and dropped out. But my friend convinced me to give it one more try. I did not prepare much for the exam, and it was no surprise that I failed. But it was just by one mark, and people would pity me for failing “just by one mark”. It was a brand of failure. It hurt my ego. I had to turn things around by taking the exams seriously, and locked myself up to study hard.&nbsp; Even when we had visitors, my wife told them I was not home. If I was not in my room learning Korean, I would be with a group of ten of us test-takers comparing notes and practicing late into the night. The exam was difficult, but this time I passed, the only one in my group who did.&nbsp; As someone who never liked the idea of doing a job, I still had my doubts about going to Korea. It did not help that one of my acquaintances had returned a month after he had left, and he discouraged me from migrating given that I was already making good money in Nepal.&nbsp; But my wife suggested that I give it a shot since I had worked so hard for it. And if it really turned out not to be my cup of tea, I could always return. What did I have to lose, I thought, at least I would get to visit Korea. My job there was in an electrical company that made circuit boards. I worked all day, earned good money. In the evenings, I kept myself busy with my real estate business back in Nepal. I had learnt the tricks of the trade from fellow real estate agents back home, but at the time did not have the capital to invest.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250831020848_941e961e2045058f255ad89884b51faa7d2365c68236e5cbe573d63d769ac6c5.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250831020848_941e961e2045058f255ad89884b51faa7d2365c68236e5cbe573d63d769ac6c5" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Diaspora Diaries 72"> </figure>  In Korea, it helped that I had salary records that allowed me to get loans from financial institutions both in Korea and in Nepal. Ultimately, I started earning more from my real estate deals in Nepal than from my job in Korea. This was all thanks to my ability to take loans because of the EPS scheme. My wife has been managing the flower business while I was away. My finances grew stronger over the eight years I was in Korea. I paid off the loans that I had borrowed to buy land. But real estate did not satisfy me entirely. I wondered: what is my brand? What will I be known for? What is my contribution to society? Real estate is for wealth, but that is about it. I needed to sell one piece of land and use the revenue to start a venture. I took classes in business, and returned to Nepal six months ago and got back to my family’s ancestral roots in floriculture. In Nepal too, I am continuing the entrepreneurship training I had started in Korea with the Bridge International. Such exposure helps us reflect on our business such as our branding, vision, and proactive aspects like the importance of strong recordkeeping.&nbsp; I am now working to upgrade and expand my floriculture business. With a friend who is still in Korea I am building a cooling room to increase the shelf-life of flowers and other produce and set up a market in my village where others can sell their produce. Floriculture is our primary business, but it is seasonal and earns good money only during festivals like Tihar.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250831020848_a008ffeba13896e6918f68ff6e687c8fe11140d86a96f1ec11690547f2bcd415.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20250831020848_a008ffeba13896e6918f68ff6e687c8fe11140d86a96f1ec11690547f2bcd415" data-rendition-name="original" width="1280" height="720" loading="lazy" alt="Diaspora Diaries 72"> </figure>  So, I grow tomatoes to ensure year-round earnings. I also am engaged in other businesses like real estate and online shopping. I work round the clock in Nepal — a strong work ethic is something I picked up in Korea.&nbsp; My Korean bosses would work alongside us, that motivated us. I work just as hard in Nepal as I did in Korea. People here often ask me why I am pushing myself so hard. But making garlands comes easy to me, it is work my forebears were involved in. My childhood memories are about plucking flowers with my sister. I have a comparative advantage in this work. It comes naturally to me, it is easy and I enjoy it. And sometimes, if there are too many garlands to make, I can multitask while holding meetings. My fingers just fly. I am good at this job, but my wife is even better and faster.&nbsp; When there is too much load, we can also outsource the work. To be known as the flower guy would be great personal branding. The मखमली guy. Or the सयपत्री guy. I decided to come home for just this with a one-way ticket. “अब पासा: जाँदैन ल्हासा!” &nbsp;

The flower guy

It cannot be a coincidence that after pushing bills to constrict freedom of expression and allow greater <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/security-or-espionage">surveillance of citizens</a>, Nepal’s government is now tightening controls on civil society.
In a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/guest-editorial/command-and-control">series of recent moves</a> journalists have been sued for contempt of court, imprisoned for YouTube videos, or ordered by courts to desist from investigating corrupt officials.
An amendment to the Print and Publications Act that would hand the power to shut online media to the Chief District Officer (CDO). Another draft Bill would allow a political appointee to head a new Media Council with the power to revoke a journalist’s license. The draft counter-intelligence Bill would let random officials to arbitrarily tap phones, read emails and trail citizens.
Now comes yet another draft Bill that would replace the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=10675">Social Welfare Council (SWC)</a> with direct government control over registration, regulation, and management of non-governmental organisations, nonprofits and charities. There are more than 54,000 NGOs, 200 international NGOs registered with the SWC.
The draft makes civil society organisations needlessly jump through hoops to carry out work that complements the government in the social sector. Critics say the Bill was drafted without any consultation with <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/nepal-s-rights-groups-must-step-up-4r4z6ck4">civic groups</a>.
“This Bill’s content is questionable whether it intends to allow for civil society organisations in Nepal a free space to operate,” concludes Dr SP Kalaunee, Country Representative of BlinkNow Foundation and Chair of the Association of International NGOs in Nepal (AIN). “The draft seems oriented towards controling rather than facilitating the work of civil society organisations.”
The Bill will be open for feedback from the public, and integrates the National Directives Act (1961), Association Registration Act (1977), and the Social Welfare Act (1992) and proposes dissolving the SWC and replacing it with a new Social Welfare Department under the Ministry of Women, Children and Senior Citizens.
Non-government groups will now be required to get approval from the Registrar Office, the CDO or the provincial government depending on their area of operation. Those working across provinces will have to get permission from the federal government. &nbsp;
The government says the Bill is intended to vet organisations to see if they are engaged in espionage, violate national security, assist a foreign state, commit treason, cause strife between federal units, or incite communal violence.&nbsp;
CSOs working in Nepal have long called for legislation to better facilitate their work, minimise administrative and bureaucratic red tape which have posed operational challenges. But they are opposed to such drastic control.&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/the-crow-and-the-scarecrow">The crow and the scarecrow</a>, Om Astha Rai
The NGO Federation of Nepal also issued a statement this week calling the Bill ‘retrograde and cumbersome’. It added: ‘Most of its provisions are intended to further constrain and control civil society organisations rather than facilitate and strengthen them, and reduce the role of citizen participation … it is an attack on our civil liberties, inclusivity, and transparency, and curtails our <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=5156">democratic values and constitutional rights</a>.’ &nbsp;
<a href="about:blank">Nepal’s graduation</a> from least-developed country status next year may mean less aid for Nepal, and higher interest rates on loans from multilateral creditors. The <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/how-usaid-cut-affects-nepal">closure of USAID </a>and reduction in bilateral grants means the work of INGOs will be even more vital – especially to meet its <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/target-2030-for-maternal-and-newborn-health">SDG targets by 2030</a>.&nbsp;
“We are competing with other countries at a time when the global aid environment is shrinking, so the support we receive is directly dependent on a conducive environment for INGOs to operate and function,” says Kalaunee. “INGOs follow regulations of the nations they operate in, they will not protest or wait around for governments to change their minds or policies.”
Social safety net
Since 1977, the work of non-governmental actors in Nepal has been regulated by the Social Service National Coordination Council (SSNCC) chaired by Queen Aishwarya.
After the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/one-moment-30-years-ago-today">1990 People’s Movement</a>, King Birendra set up the Social Welfare Council (SWC) as an autonomous body in 1992 through the Social Welfare Act. But since then the SWC has been dogged by controversy and allegations of corruption and extortion.
In 2018, the Commission for the Investigation of Abuse of Authority (CIAA) filed a Rs315 million corruption case against 14 individuals, including the Minister of Women, Children and Social Welfare and SWC chair Badri Prasad Neupane and other officials for violating public procurement laws to rent out three hectares of its property around Bhrikuti Mandap.
Civil society groups have for years called for reforms in the SWC, and a report was drawn up to restructure it before this Bill proposed its dissolution. INGOs in particular will now have to go through the Social Welfare Department and multiple ministries for permissions.
A particularly objectionable provision in the draft stipulates that NGOs must have a Board of Director made up almost entirely of secretaries of various ministries. The NGO Federation has urged the government to take a civil society-friendly approach and not tangle its work in red tape and control. It says the government has no option but to revise the bill in its current form.
“Civil society organisations need an open space to operate, and an autonomous body to oversee them,” says Kalaunee. “Non-government organisations support in the areas prioritised by the government but by definition they cannot be a part of government.”

Big, beautiful Bills

Nepal’s leaders often make grandiose promises that they will turn the country into Switzerland within a decade. We will be lucky if Nepal could even attain the per capita GDP of Swaziland.
Becoming another Switzerland or Singapore is the boastful fantasy of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/politics-as-usual">incompetent serial politicians</a> who keep getting themselves elected again and again.&nbsp;
So, what has to change?&nbsp;
It has to be <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/looking-ahead-to-nepal-s-2027-elections">through elections</a>, but there is spreading distrust of the democratic system bordering on nihilism among Nepalis. The three main parties must have sensed by now that they are doomed if they do not get their act together and inject new untainted blood into tickets in 2027.&nbsp;
One election will not clean up the muck that has accumulated over the past 35 years, but we have to start with the next one. Politics cannot be business as usual any more, voters are fed up with what is on offer.&nbsp;
Over <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/push-factors-driving-nepalis-out">one-third of young Nepalis are not even in Nepal</a>, and they are not allowed to cast their ballots. But we saw in 2022 that the diaspora can have an impact on how their folks vote back home, and this trend is bound to increase in 2027. It would finally break the vote banks on which the established parties have relied on to perpetuate misrule.
Nepal needs solutions urgently to address snowballing crises on multiple fronts: social inequity, joblessness and low purchasing power, failing agriculture, breakdown of services, a pandemic of corruption feeding mal-development, low capital formation, environmental woes, and to top it all off — a runaway climate emergency.&nbsp;
Yet, there are bright spots, many of which happened despite political instability: falling poverty rate, improved health and education status, increase in forest cover, conservation successes, growth in hydropower.&nbsp;
Just imagine how much further ahead Nepal would be if it was not plagued with chronic mismanagement, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/higher-corruption-in-high-places">corruption and conflict</a>.
It is because of these modest gains that <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/not-poor-but-not-rich">Nepal will graduate</a> from a ‘least-developed’ to a ‘developing country’ in November 2026, and transition to middle-income status by 2030 — even though it still has an annual per capita income below the $1,306 threshold.
The driving force for this growth comes almost entirely from remittances which make up 26% of the GDP — the third highest in the world. Inflows officially hit $12.54 billion last year, and nearly 65% of households depend on money <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/the-new-equaliser">family members send home</a>, spending most of it on basic needs.
A recent discussion at the Institute for Integrated Development Studies (IIDS) titled Diaspora Dialogue: Innovation, Identity and Global Influence looked at leveraging the 4 million Nepalis who live and work abroad to spur investment and growth.
IIDS has been involved since 1979 in policy advocacy to propose sustainable solutions to governments under at least four different political systems. The fact that we are in the state we are in now must mean that not many of the policy priorities the IIDS put forward in the past 40 years have been properly implemented.&nbsp;
For decades, we’ve heard that Nepal’s path to economic growth lies in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/people-power/nepal-can-level-up-tourism-with-electricity">hydropower and tourism</a>, but that narrative has to change, noted IIDS Executive Director Biswash Gauchan.&nbsp;
“Forget falling water, forest and forex,” he said. “Nepal has to move to a knowledge economy, boost investment and look beyond our neighbours to the diaspora.”&nbsp;
There is an artificial bubble in real estate and banking due to remittances. Even if Nepal gets 3 million tourists a year and exports most its hydropower it will not be enough to take the annual per capita income to $6,000 by 2050.
A knowledge economy means thinking beyond enrolment rates and basic literacy to quality education relevant to the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/investing-in-people">human resources the country needs</a>. This will ensure jobs at home in import-substitution agriculture, value-added manufacturing and export of services.
And that is where global Nepalis come in. Connectivity means the end of geography, and diaspora talent and capital can be harnessed for investment and involvement in innovation to take Nepal into a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/smart-ageing-is-nepal-s-next-frontier">digital future</a>.&nbsp;
This needs a paradigm shift away from a rent-seeking state to a ‘whole-of-government’ strategy that can only come from a new crop of competent technocrats with integrity and vision to seize the moment. They have to see migration not as 'brain drain' but as 'brain circulation'.
Those Nepalis exist. In Nepal and all over the world. Swaziland’s anuual per capita income is $4,000 — think we can do it <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-in-2050-wk6r5r1j">by 2050</a>?