<figure><img width="960" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111144/63721c179c7e80680e0bd473jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Although Nepal is used to localised rains even post-monsoon, last October saw unprecedented nationwide downpour. Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI.</figcaption></figure>On 11 October 2021, Nepal’s Department of Hydrology and Meteorology declared that the southwest monsoon had officially exited the country. Paddy fields across the country were golden with ripening rice, and Nepalis were getting ready to prepare for the Dasain festival.On 15 October, the Met Office reported that a westerly system had become active, and there was likely to be some rain. Indeed, the frontal system lashed the Indian state of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/more-himalayan-tsunamis/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Uttarakhand</a>, triggering landslides and causing <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/kathmandus-flash-floods-are-4-decades-in-the-making/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">flash floods</a>.Nepal is used to localised rains even after the monsoon ends, but this was the first time in 12 years that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/himalayan-floods-a-sign-of-worse-to-come/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">there was widespread nationwide rain in October</a>. And it was not just ordinary showers, the cloudbursts dumped more than 500mm of rain in Dadeldhura on 17-19 October. Sunsari got nearly 400mm in just 24 hours on 19-20 October.Landslides and floods killed over 120 people across the country, 28 are still missing. Nepal’s Ministry of Agriculture had predicted paddy harvests to exceed target because of a healthy monsoon, but the unexpected rain in October cost nearly Rs12 billion in damage to the rice crop, reducing Nepal’s GDP by 0.6%. Sudurpaschim Province alone <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/post-monsoon-rain-ruins-nepals-crops/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">lost up to one-third of paddy that was ready for harvest</a>. <figure><img width="597" height="321" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111144/63721c199c7e80680e0bd474jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>24-hour rainfall 18-19 October. Source: DHM</figcaption></figure>Roads, bridges, irrigation schemes and hydropower plants were damaged or destroyed. There was $85 million damage to 26 hydroelectric schemes.     Since then, climate scientists and meteorologists have been scratching their heads to figure out what happened, and why there were not more accurate weather forecasts about the severity of the unseasonal precipitation.A new paper ‘<a href="http://isetnepal.org.np/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Early-Warning-System-in-October-2021-Rainfall-Final.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Missed Opportunities in Utilisation of Weather Forecasts: An Analysis of the October 2021 Disaster in Nepal</a>’ by risk reduction experts Dinanath Bhandari and Ajaya Dixit investigates what happened, if it could have been foreseen, and how it can be prevented in future.The authors look at the challenge of predicting post-monsoon and winter precipitation, and how <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-change-is-a-disaster-in-the-nepal-himalaya/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the global climate crisis is affecting rainfall patterns</a> that used to be fairly regular in the past. The paper analyses precipitation data since 1971 to show that total post-monsoon rains have gone down all over Nepal except parts of the trans-Himalaya.‘Existing meteorological stations are inadequate to cover the diversity of Nepal’s microclimates, and the high mountain and remote regions have fewer stations than required for climate trend analysis,’ the paper notes. <figure><img width="592" height="318" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111144/63721c1a9c7e80680e0bd475jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>24-hour rainfall October 19-20. Source: DHM</figcaption></figure><figure><img width="592" height="318" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111144/63721c1c9c7e80680e0bd476jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>24-hour rainfall October 20-21. Source: DHM</figcaption></figure>The authors also look into why there was widespread damage and human casualties despite weather alerts through media. Although the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology did predict rain, the messaging did not include location and time-specific impact-based forecasting, they say.Although the National Disaster Risk Management and Mitigation Authority (NDRMMA) did issue early warnings through social media platforms, including daily situation reports, the paper says that these tended to focus on post-event rescue and relief, and not enough on early warning.Even when the correct forecast was available, there was not enough coordination with various other agencies of government like the Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of Local Development, local governments, as well as the security agencies for emergency rescue. <figure><img width="649" height="360" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111144/63721c1e9c7e80680e0bd477jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Stations with over 200 mm of accumulated rainfall in 2021 October</figcaption></figure><figure><img width="608" height="674" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111144/63721c209c7e80680e0bd478jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Maximum 24-hour October rainfall above 140 mm in October (1951 to 2009)</figcaption></figure>This could have been due to the impending Dasain holiday mood, but the authors also blame ‘location specific impact-based rainfall forecasts’. In other words, the early warning was too general. The authors imply that the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology should not just be in the business of issuing forecasts, but also work with local authorities for preparedness and timely action.  ‘The argument that the frequency of extreme rainfall events in the post-monsoon has increased seems to be valid,’ the paper says. ‘In 2009, the post-monsoon high rainfall was concentrated in west Nepal. It was the same initially in 2021, but the widespread and unseasonal rainfall last year seemed to catch everyone by surprise and there was not even some semblance of preparedness for rescue and relief to be dominant in disaster management response.’Read more: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/lessons-still-not-learnt/">Lessons still not learnt</a>, Editorial

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Post-disaster lessons for Nepal

<figure><img width="960" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141148/636d012f9c7e80680e0a3619jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>On 31 July this newspaper carried a report titled ‘<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/kathmandus-flash-floods-are-4-decades-in-the-making/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Kathmandu’s Flash Floods Are 4 Decades in the Making</a>’. The analysis by Tom Robertson stated that there was nothing ‘sudden’ about floods in Kathmandu Valley, and they would get much worse.
We derive no satisfaction in saying, ‘we told you so.’ On the night of 5 September the capital received over 100mm of rain in just 3 hours early on Monday morning. The rain was heaviest recorded in the Valley for decades.
<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/monsoon-hits-nepal-with-a-bang/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/monsoon-hits-nepal-with-a-bang/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1631072070032000&amp;usg=AFQjCNECbm6803Ead3PaypG73hCO2ZkjXA">Monsoon modelling</a> by the South Asia Climate Outlook Forum had predicted 20% higher than normal rainfall in most of Nepal this year, but the total precipitation has been even heavier than that in many places causing death and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-valley-suffers-quadruple-disaster/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">destruction</a>. The rains have been sustained and relentless, and we saw nearly as much rain as Kathmandu gets in the whole of September falling on just Sunday and Monday. 
Scientists are much more categorical than they have ever been in drawing a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-villages-learn-to-cope-with-climate-crisis/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">correlation between such extreme weather events and the climate crisis</a>.  A warming atmosphere means more water vapour in the air, which translates into more than normal rain. 
This year saw record-breaking downpours in the Ahr Valley of Germany, floods in China’s Henan province in July killed 300 people, and remnants of Hurricane Ida dumped 80mm of rain in just one hour on New York, leaving 50 people dead across northeastern US, including three Nepalis.
Meanwhile, Siberia, the Canadian Arctic and California baked in unprecedented heat waves and droughts, with wildfires sweeping across them for a second northern summer in a row. Nepal itself had a five month drought last winter which sparked historic forest fires that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/wildfires-ravage-nepal-mountains/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/wildfires-ravage-nepal-mountains/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1631072070032000&amp;usg=AFQjCNErZlFXbqeguXo0dcRfMdE1jflNBg">engulfed the whole country</a> in smoke. 
Nearly 80% of Kathmandu’s<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/monsoon-hits-nepal-with-a-bang/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> annual rain </a>falls in just four months: June-September. People in Nepal and the Indo-Gangetic plains have learnt to live with the annual floods, and need them to replenish their farms with nutrients valuable for next year’s crops.
Kathmandu has seen cloudbursts before. The destructive floods of 1981 dumped 170mm of rain in 24 hours on Godavari, unleashing floods on the Bagmati’s tributaries. Makwanpur saw an unimaginable 540mm of rain in 24 hours, and the resulting debris flows filled up the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-cost-of-light/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Kulekhani reservoir</a> and wiped out half its life-span. 
Such <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/first-drought-then-downpour/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">extreme events will be more intense and frequent</a> as the atmosphere warms up. That is a given. But instead of preparing for them, we are making them even more disastrous by impounding water with new housing, perimeter walls, or garbage blocking drains. 
Blaming just the climate for this week’s inundation of Kathmandu is a copout. Though heavy, the Valley’s natural drainage system of the Bagmati and Bishnumati would have been able to absorb the excess water by letting it spill over what used to be wide floodplains. 
As Robertson notes, those areas are now built over, natural drainage has been blocked and impermeable concrete and asphalt prevent water from seeping into the ground. In the past 40 years, Kathmandu’s population grew four times. More houses were built, and as land got scarce they encroached into the flood plains. The rivers have been constricted into narrow channels.
Bulldozers are clawing at the Valley rim, removing the slopes that used to store rainwater like gigantic sponges, and let it out slowly. Now, with the buffers gone, even moderate intensity rainfall leads to direct runoff and flooding. 
The problem is the same in the Tarai. Sand mining and logging of the Chure has increased flash floods downstream, sedimentation raises river beds, and new highways and embankments in Nepal and across the border in India act as dams, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/flood-of-recrimination/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">inundating towns and farms</a>. 
The problem is slightly <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/human-face-of-a-himalayan-climate-crisis/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">different in the mountains</a>. Haphazard road construction has increased landslide danger, but as we are seeing with Melamchi this year, there is rain where snow used to fall on loose glacial deposits and this is washing them down in deadly debris flows.
Glaciologist Rijan Bhakta Kayastha in a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-needs-weather-stations-in-the-himalaya/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-needs-weather-stations-in-the-himalaya/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1631072070032000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH2R2E1tTCK-vfKOuVtERCgpW-OfA">recent Nepali Times op-ed </a>made a case for more weather stations in the high mountain catchment areas to measure the intensity of rainfall in real time, communicate the data to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority so settlements downstream can get early warning. 
All that is well and good, but as long as we continue to block the natural drainage of rivers, floods will get worse. And there is no point blaming climate change for that.

A flood of recrimination

<figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141124/636cfc549c7e80680e0a0b81jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: NATIONAL DISASTER RISK REDUCTION AND MANAGEMENT AUTHORITY (NDRRMA)</figcaption></figure>The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-valley-suffers-quadruple-disaster/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">debris flood on the Melamchi River</a> has been continuous since the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/monsoon-hits-nepal-with-a-bang/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">start of the monsoon on 15 June</a>. Since then, more than 20 people have been killed, more than 100 homes washed away and 400 households displaced. Six highway bridges, and 12 suspension footbridges have been swept away. The $700 million Melamchi Water Supply Project has been damaged even before it came into full operation, and will need expensive and extensive repairs. Basanta Adhikari, Associate Professor of Engineering Geology has just returned from an inspection visit, and spoke to Nepali Times.Nepali Times: From your trip, what appears to be the main cause of this continuing flood?Basanta Adhikari: Due to the weather we could not fly to the headwaters, but looking at videos, it seems that there was always a large amount of glacial and fluvial debris accumulated at a place called Bhremathang. Since the<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/after-the-deluge-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> muddy flood</a> is continuous, I am certain it cannot only be attributed to the landslide on 15 June that blocked the river. All that debris that had accumulated is being constantly washed down.  How much debris are we talking about? And what is it made of? That calls for more study. But there seems to be a multiple thick layer of sand, mud and boulders that have been brought down from the mountains and collected in a relatively flat area. It is also possible that thousands of years ago, a landslide blocked the Melamchi, leading to an accumulation of sediment in what is now a dried up lake bed. Besides this, this could also be part of a glacier that has receded. These are all just possibilities, nothing can be said for sure until further research is done. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-hotter-himalaya/">A hotter Himalaya</a>, Editorial <figure><img width="233" height="277" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141124/636cfc569c7e80680e0a0b82jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Basanta Adhikari</figcaption></figure>How long will there be a risk of more floods threatening the Melamchi project headworks and downstream valleys?  Looking at the debris field there, it is likely that the effect will be quite long-term. Every time there is heavy rain, the loose boulders and sand will keep being washed down. The debris accumulation has to be thoroughly studied before we can say anything about its long-term effects. Only after studying the volume of the debris field can we predict how long it will affect downstream areas. Research Is also needed to design mitigation efforts.Is there a way to stop the flood upstream so it does not threaten the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-needs-to-plan-for-plenty-and-scarcity-of-water/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Melamchi project</a>?We cannot top the flow where the debris field is currently located. However, if we build  a series of check dams, the danger from floods can be reduced. There is sufficient technology and manpower to do so, but it all depends on whether the government has the political will and the funding to carry it out. If preventive measures are taken in time, threats of future catastrophes can be minimised.What lessons can we learn from the Melamchi flood? We must thoroughly analyse what lies upstream before we design any infrastructure or settlements. What are the potential dangers? What can be done to safeguard against future disasters? When planning  large-scale projects like Melamchi, we should model the potential for natural disasters, and engineer them accordingly. The Melamchi flood has reminded us of the importance of researching that an expensive project like that must The extensive damage caused by the natural disasters is a reminder that we should not take Himalayan geology for granted, and formulate policies accordingly. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/drones-to-the-rescue-in-melamchi/">Drones to the rescue in Melamchi</a>, Nepali Times

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The monsoon mess in Melamchi

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111015118/636d06769c7e80680e0a5f63jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640"/><figcaption>All photos: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>S ections of the Arniko Highway between Kathmandu and Banepa that are prone to chronic flooding every monsoon season were submerged again on Friday after heavy overnight rain.Trucks and vans were stuck in the high water along Banepa's main thoroughfare, while some paddled in makeshift floats to get across the highway.Water from a nearby stream overflowed into the road because of insufficient drainage, and compound walls that act like dams along natural floodplains of rivers.As predicted by weather modellers, this year's monsoon has been vigorous and total precipitation for June was on average 35% higher than average for Nepal.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111015118/636d06789c7e80680e0a5f64jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111015118/636d067a9c7e80680e0a5f65jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111015118/636d067d9c7e80680e0a5f66jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111015118/636d06809c7e80680e0a5f67jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="638"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111015118/636d06829c7e80680e0a5f68jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111015118/636d06869c7e80680e0a5f69jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111015118/636d06899c7e80680e0a5f6ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="639"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111015118/636d068b9c7e80680e0a5f6bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111015118/636d068e9c7e80680e0a5f6cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111015118/636d06909c7e80680e0a5f6djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111015118/636d06939c7e80680e0a5f6ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111015118/636d06959c7e80680e0a5f6fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="639">After the first burst in mid-June, Central and eastern Nepal are now being lashed by a second wave, causing landslides to block the country's arterial highways. The Mugling-Narayanghat section, for example, has only opened erratically for the past week with constant rockfalls.At least 7 people were killed on Thursday alone in different parts of the country. Among them was a policeman at the Darchula station as the rains arrived in western Nepal.In Myagdi, Palpa, Syangja, Gulmi and Jhapa, some 50 homes were swept away by flood waters or landslides. As the swollen rivers descended into the plains, farms and villages in Province 2 have also been submerge.A 300m section of the trekking trail to Larkya Pass along the Budi Gandaki River, already badly damaged in the 2015 earthquake has been completely washed away. Upper Gorkha is now accessible only by helicopter.

Monsoon submerges Kathmandu environs

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110914118/636ba64b9c7e80680e073711jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1122" height="810"/><figcaption>Aftermath of the landslide that occurred on Friday morning in Lidi of Sindhupalchok district. All photos: RSS</figcaption></figure>This year’s monsoon season has been disastrous for Nepal, in the past two months 301 people have been killed in landslides all over the country. The death toll has now overtaken 2018 during which 292 people were killed in landlsides.The worst-hit has been Sindhupalchok district, which has seen its most grievous loss of life since the 2015 earthquakes which killed 3,570 people. This was the district with the highest death toll with 40% of all fatalities.Sindhupalchok received a doubly whammy: first from the 7.8M quake on 25 April 2015, and then the 7.3 aftershock on 12 May. Eighty percent of all homes in the district were destroyed.The deadliest landslide in Nepal this year was in Lidi of Sindhupalchok, where a landslide on the night of 14 August sliced through the village killing at least 36 people. Twenty-two bodies have been retrieved so far, the others are presume buried under the rubble.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110914118/636ba64e9c7e80680e073712jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1766" height="1165"><figcaption>So far 22 bodies have been recovered but search is still on going for 17 people still missing from Lidi landslide.</figcaption></figure>Most of the houses had been destroyed in the 2015 earthquakes, and had only recently been rebuilt with government grants. The villagers killed were all from the Tamang community, who represented a third of all fatalities in the 2015 earthquakes as well.Ward officials in Lidi said they had sent a written appeal to the district administration a week before the landslide asking for the village to be relocated because of the danger of landslide. Engineers from the National Reconstruction Authority (NRA) had included the village in a Category 1 list of villages vulnerable to landslides.However, the NRA has said the landslide occurred because of inappropriate drainage in the terrain above the village.“The post-earthquake survey did say the village was at risk, but engineers had concluded that there was no need to relocate,” said the NRA’S Chandra Bahadur Shrestha. “They had suggested that an embankment wall be created to deflect a possible landslide.”Shrestha said water was seeping through cracks that had appeared during the earthquakes, and there was no proper system to drain the water to the nearby stream. “The landslide occurred because the local government did not take steps to drain the water,” Shrestha added.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110914118/636ba6529c7e80680e073713jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1800" height="1350"><figcaption>Landslide in Jajarkot district following heavy rainfall last month.</figcaption></figure>Geologists point our several factors for this year’s monsoon being so deadly. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/heavy-monsoon-rains-forecast-for-nepal/">Heavy pre-monsoon showers</a> had already saturated the top soil on steep slopes when the main rains arrived in mid-June. The monsoon itself has been more vigorous than usual with precipitation 30% above average in most places.In additional there has been <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/dont-just-blame-god-for-floods-and-landslides/">haphazard and poorly engineered road construction,</a> which has disturbed drainage on slopes. The landslide and flood on tributaries of the Bhote Kosi that killed 23 in Jambu village of Sindhupalchok in June started out as a slope failure next to a newly-built road.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110914118/636ba6559c7e80680e073714jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1050" height="591"><figcaption>Locals and rescue party search for missing people in Jajrkot landslide last month.</figcaption></figure>Heavy rainfall and roads have made the slopes <a href="https://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/2020/07/24/nepal-2020/">already destabilised by the earthquakes five years ago</a> even more fragile. Sixty-six of Nepal’s 77 districts have been affected this year by landslides and floods, and the worst-hit is Sindhupalchok, east of Kathmandu.One year before the earthquakes, the district suffered <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2014/08/02/a-flood-of-floods/">a massive landslide</a> that wiped out three villages near Jure and blocked the Bhote Kosi River, killing 145 people and causing huge damage to roads, bridges and hydropower plants.Myagdi in central Nepal has also been badly hit, with three landslides on 10 July killing 27 people. Tanahu and Parbat districts have also suffered numerous landslides.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110914118/636ba6579c7e80680e073715jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="426"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110914118/636ba65a9c7e80680e073716jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="426">Landslide in Myagdi in central Nepal.“There is light to moderate rain forecast for the rest of the week, but because the slopes are already saturated the danger of landlisdes will persist throughout Augusts,” says meteorologist Shanti Kandel.She adds: “There is a low pressure system over the Bay of Bengal that is moving northwestwards and this could bring more rain later this week.”The NRA has listed 4,829 settlements in the 14 districts affected by the 2015 earthquakes that are in high risk zones, and although the landslide risk has been mitigated in most of them, 500 villages are still in vulnerable slopes.It says villages on slopes more than 30 degrees are relocated, but even in villages with gentler gradient irrigation water and storm drainage needs to be properly managed to reduce landslide risk.

Nepal’s deadliest monsoon in recent times

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.

Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy

French citizen Louis arrived in Nepal for the first time earlier this year, planning to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/the-abcs-of-a-winter-trek-in-nepal">trek the Annapurna Circuit </a>before heading down to Bardia to hopefully catch a glimpse of some<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-counting-its-tigers"> tigers</a>. Before he began his journey from Besisahar, Louis (who only revealed his first name) had imagined breathing crisp mountain air, and following the melodious gurgle of the Marsyangdi.&nbsp; Instead, he had to breathe fumes and dust all the way to Chame. Louis says he masked his face with a handkerchief: “It was not what I expected, this is not right.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080304080_f03fce1527cf8a63178e4e82589a1a7096c8cfa28893ca4a5f7fe82d91a6e38a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="2025080304080_f03fce1527cf8a63178e4e82589a1a7096c8cfa28893ca4a5f7fe82d91a6e38a" data-rendition-name="original" width="2419" height="1814" loading="lazy" alt="Manang trails NT 1"> </figure>  Many other trekkers are similarly disappointed as roads have been built along what used to be <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/a-walk-back-in-time-chandragiri-hatiban">walking trails</a>. Manang and Humla are the last remote regions in the Himalaya to be connected to the national road network. &nbsp;Construction of the 87km Besisahar-Manang road began in 1994, but was stalled during <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/14-years-after-conflict-no-closure-in-nepal">the Maoist conflic</a>t, and finally finished in 2012.&nbsp; Most of it has not yet been blacktopped, and sections have been carved out of vertical cliff faces, making them treacherous. But it has allowed road access to Manang, a journey that previously took a week on foot.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080304084_32b3ca875a0df9f1dd42dbe915e6f6a2cd4f2e53f1cf2d3ee5cbdb3435905000.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="2025080304084_32b3ca875a0df9f1dd42dbe915e6f6a2cd4f2e53f1cf2d3ee5cbdb3435905000" data-rendition-name="original" width="2400" height="1505" loading="lazy" alt="Manang trails NT 1"> </figure>  While the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-road-out-of-nepal">road has improved access</a>, it has impacted on<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/trekking-in-the-time-of-climate-change"> trekking tourism </a>— the mainstay of Manang’s economy. The number of tourists visiting the scenic valley behind the Annapurnas grew from 21,245 in 2023 to 30,866 in 2024. The Annapurna Circuit is known for unique sights like <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=9194">Tilicho</a>, one of the highest lakes in the world, the Thorong La pass that connects Manang to Mustang, and the valley’s own rich cultural heritage. Thorong La at 5,416m is the highest hiking pass in the world, and was used by locals for trade with Mustang before it became a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/lift-restrictions-on-upper-mustang">popular trekking route</a>. &nbsp; “For guests, the excitement of reaching Thorong La is now overshadowed by their disappointment of having to journey through dusty roads to get there,” says Manang lodge-owner Ongma Gurung. “That is the complaint we get the most.” <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/tourism-that-treads-lightly-on-the-land">Local tourism </a>operators are trying to get the government to build alternative foot trails. But there have been delays due to a lack of budget.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080304084_c5f76e398182785bb17846a148e3ca89de5687b4623580f8e2d725a7a287edfa.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="2025080304084_c5f76e398182785bb17846a148e3ca89de5687b4623580f8e2d725a7a287edfa" data-rendition-name="original" width="2419" height="1762" loading="lazy" alt="Manang trails"> </figure>  The Naso Rural Municipality has identified other routes along the Annapurna Circuit in Chyamche, Tal, and Khotro so trekkers can bypass heavy vehicles involved in the construction of the Manang-Marsyangdi Hydropower Project. “But the local government cannot do everything,” admits the chair Dhan Bahadur Gurung. “And for leaders in Kathmandu, Manang is out of sight and out of mind.” Munindra Jung Gurung represents Manang in the Gandaki Provincial Assembly, and says he has raised the issue in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/pokhara-s-tourism-woes">Pokhara</a>. He is hopeful there will be a hearing. To be sure, the road is not all bad news. Locals benefit, the number of visitors has grown, and trekkers can now also save time and use it to explore <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=5960">side valleys in Manang</a>, visiting the villages like Nar and Phu. Annapurna Conservation Area (ACA) chief Rabin Kadariya concedes that the road to Upper Manang was crucial to connect the remote region with the rest of Nepal, but adds: “We have built an alternative trail connecting Talgaun, and we will consult local communities about their priorities on other hiking trails.”&nbsp;

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