<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140216/63e3a13d9c7e80680e0d7074jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2700" height="1563"/><figcaption>Supporters of the RSP shout slogans in support of Rabi Lamichhane outside the Supreme Court on Friday evening. Photo: RSS</figcaption></figure>Rabi Lamichhane and his independent party had a meteoric rise — just five months after he launched the RSP, it became the fourth largest party in Parliament after the 22 November elections.But on Friday, Nepal’s Supreme Court ruled that Lamichhane was not a Nepali citizen, which means he has automatically lost his post as Home Minister and Deputy Prime Minister, his MP seat, as well as the leadership of his party.The Court’s Constitutional Bench decided that although Lamichhane had given up his American citizenship in 2017, he had not finished the process of reapplying for a Nepali citizenship. He is therefore citizenless.Lamichhane, who was in his office at the Home Ministry in Singha Darbar when the verdict was reached, told reporters he accepted the Supreme Court decision.But he gave an enigmatic reaction to reporters' questions about what he would do next: “I am a non-citizen, a nobody. I have no answers.” He then submitted his resignation to Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal.The rise and fall of Rabi Lamichhane puts his RSP party into considerable uncertainty, since he was the popular founder of the party and it was on his coat-tails that many RSP candidates won the elections, securing 20 seats in Parliament.A weakened RSP will also put the future of the already-shaky 7-party coalition government of Prime Minister Dahal in jeopardy. The coalition is made up of the Maoists and the UML which are the second and third largest parties as well as the RSP, and smaller parties.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140216/63e3a1409c7e80680e0d7075jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>But the largest party in Parliament, the Nepali Congress (NC) led by Sher Bahadur Deuba is in the opposition, and has been trying to create a rift within the coalition by exploiting the mistrust between Maoist leader Dahal and the UML’s K P Oli.It was Oli who had brought Lamichhane and the RSP into the coalition to muster the numbers for Dahal to form the government. But the Prime Minister seems to be having second thoughts about letting the UML decide who becomes the next President.Lamichane’s exit puts all those deals in doubt. It is not clear if he will appeal the verdict and try to get himself re-elected in a by-election from Chitwan 2.The former anchor shot to fame with his populist tv show in which he tried to redress government wrongs on behalf of citizens in distress, and converted his popularity with clever use of social media into election victory for himself and his party.But the question about his citizenship was always lurking in the background, and many commentators found it unethical that he demanded and got to be Home Minister and Deputy Prime Minister to head the very agency that was investigating his citizenship question.The RSP will exist even without Lamichhane, as he will still be the force behind the scenes within it, but it will have lost its captain. How the remaining MPs of the RSP, as well as its ministers in the Cabinet, will now conduct themselves in the secret ballot for presidency in the coming weeks remains open.But that question may be moot if the 7-party coalition itself collapses, and that would happen if the UML decided that it is not getting the presidency to succeed Bidya Devi Bhandari.

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The rise and fall of Rabi Lamichhane

<img width="1400" height="795" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107161116/636922149c7e80680e03a10ajpeg.jpg" alt=""/>In a recent meeting with editors of Nepal’s mainstream media, six months after assuming office, Prime Minister K P Oli was grilled about fears the monolithic Nepal Communist Party he leads was drifting towards authoritarianism. Editors listed the government’s recent moves <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/gagging-the-press-in-installments/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">constricting the democratic space</a>.The prime minister assured editors that his party had not deviated from its belief in liberal democracy, and maintained that his party was impatient to bring about an economic and political transformation of the country. Prime Minister Oli appeared worried that Nepalis were apprehensive about the future. He asked the media not to spread hopelessness by harping on the negative, because the resultant instability would once more derail his government’s efforts to steer the country towards prosperity. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/inventing-a-new-enemy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Inventing a new enemy</a>, Om Astha RaiFor a leader dubbed the most powerful since Jang Bahadur, and a prime minister commanding two-thirds majority, Oli’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/two-thirds-empty/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">sense of insecurity was puzzling</a>. He hinted at forces intent on destabilising the country, and was reminded that those forces were within his own government.In particular, it has been the Home Ministry, led by former Maoist Commander Ram Bahadur Thapa, that has been at the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/from-the-nepali-press/press-freedom-must-be-defended-by-its-maximum-application/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">epicentre of most actions dragging Oli into controversy</a>. A university vice-chancellor was prevented from flying to Canada for a conference, and abducted from the airport for interrogation at Baluwatar. A former child soldier was similarly prevented from boarding a flight to Thailand, on direct orders from Minister Thapa. A doctor who refused to sign a fake report for medical compensation <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/from-the-nepali-press/detaining-doctors/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">was kidnapped by goons</a> hired by the Home Minister’s adviser. And, this week, a journalist was handcuffed and jailed for a report he filed (pictured).Prime Minister Oli was the lightning rod in all these incidents. The way the crises are piling up, thick and fast, it would be logical to assume that someone is deliberately trying to undermine the prime minister. The PMO has taken the flak for the police’s inability to resolve a high profile gold smuggling scandal, even though the investigations come directly under the Home Ministry. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/no-to-the-ugly-nepali/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">No to The Ugly Nepali</a>, Kanak Mani DixitThe <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/republic-of-rape/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kanchanpur rape case</a> has been grossly mishandled by police, who seem complicit in the crime, framing an innocent person and doing everything in order not to catch the culprit. Nepal's police was brazen about killing suspected kidnappers in a broad daylight, encounter-style, recently in the capital. The buck has stopped at Baluwatar.The Oli administration’s backing for provisions in the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/strongman-rule/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Criminal Code</a> and the proposed <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/suppressed/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Privacy Bill</a>, constricting the space of free media, also casts doubt on the prime minister’s assurances he will protect freedoms. It is surprising that a leader who has been jailed for the defence of democracy should, himself, now go on the offensive against a free press.Let us remind ourselves that the NCP was created following an electoral alliance between the Maoists and the UML. The <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/a-two-party-state,3968" target="_blank" rel="noopener">unification process</a> itself was touch-and-go thanks to fierce bargaining for party leadership and rotational prime ministership.Many in the ranks of both parties were against unity. In fact, the NCP has been described as a political party that was born with KP Oli and Puhspa Kamal Dahal conjoined at the head, but the two torsos are still separate. All is not well in the NCP leadership. Even while Prime Minister Oli has been suffering sustained attacks, and is being blamed for mishaps along the way, Dahal has been strangely silent. Not only has he not supported his colleague, he has publicly announced that the leadership of the NCP has been a failure. Dahal is probably getting his protege and former comrade-at-arms, Ram Bahadur Thapa’s Home Ministry, to undermine and embarrass Oli every step of the way. To be sure, as leader, the PM should know he is ultimately responsible for the conduct of his Cabinet and he has to take the blame. Dahal, on a visit to Delhi this week, received a welcome almost worthy of a prime minister. Baburam Bhattarai asserted at a book launch last week that the real reason for India’s blockade was not support for the Madhesi autonomy demand, but pressure on Nepal to roll back secularism from the new constitution. Is there a connection between that and Dahal meeting a Hindu right RSS think tank in Delhi? Dahal is now off to Beijing and it is clear he is positioning himself for succession by ensuring that North and South are fine with it. Within Nepal, especially within his own party, Dahal’s strategy is to not let Oli leave a successful legacy.The fear is that under Dahal, and given the history and ideology of his Maoist party, the NCP will be even more authoritarian and will consolidate some of the restrictions on Western agencies in Nepal. The only check on this is to strengthen the hand of some those former UML leaders in the NCP who have solid democratic credentials.Read also: <a style="background-color: #ffffff; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/two-thirds-empty/ , Editorial Doublespeak https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/doublespeak/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Two-thirds empty</a> , Editorial  <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/gagging-the-press-in-installments/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gagging the press in installments</a>, Sewa Bhattarai <h2>10 years ago this week</h2> Prime Minister-in-waiting, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, was in New Delhi this week, just as he was in India on a state visit as prime minister ten years ago this week. In a <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=15202#.W5tihM4zaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Comment</a> in the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/417" target="_blank" rel="noopener">12-18 September edition of this paper</a> (#417) Deb Mukharji, India’s ambassador to Nepal from 2000-2002, had this to say:The proposition of India as a threat to Nepal’s integrity and sovereignty, first elaborated by the palace in the early sixties to justify its absolute rule, was later to be used by all mainstream political parties to a greater or lesser degree. The Maoists are no exception. But a continuation of the same approach, justified at times as reflective of the views of the people, does not lead to constructive engagement. Besides, a democratic framework in India and a vigilant press do tend to ask uncomfortable questions on such issues.Unfortunately, it is likely that elements in Nepali politics as well as in India would look for signs of a cooling in Nepal-India relations during the prime minister’s visit. One would hope that his openness and ability to face with candour the responsibilities of office would silence critics.’ <img width="505" height="795" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107161116/636922179c7e80680e03a10bjpeg.jpg" alt="">

Conjoined twins

<figure><img width="1400" height="1185" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107111148/6368e3149c7e80680e033363jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Walkley</figcaption></figure>Last week’s edition of this paper carried a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/saving-democracy-and-free-press-in-the-philippines/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">report</a> on the Philippines under President Rodrigo Duterte. In it, investigative reporter Rameshwar Bohara painted a bleak picture of how a country known for its vibrant civil society and long struggle to restore and protect democracy is now threatened by a populist president who boasts about having shot people.Duterte is among a new breed of elected despots who use populist slogans to get to power and proceed to dismantle the rule of law and democratic institutions. Bohara warns that the Philippines holds important lessons for Nepal where a retreat to authoritarianism is a real possibility.Fed up with crime, corruption and the stranglehold on politics by an entrenched business elite, <a href="http://alfpnetwork.net/en/e-magazine001_03/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Filipinos</a> voted overwhelmingly for Duterte. The president’s preferred method of dealing with drugs and crime is through encounter killings. More than 5,000 people have been killed under Duterte so far, and human rights groups say most of them are innocent or minor offenders.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/mr-province-2/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mr Province 2</a>, Om Astha RaiThis is why it was ominous to hear Makwanpur police chief Lokendra Shrestha announce recently that he would use ‘encounters’ to rid his district of crime. He told businesspersons and media that he had a carte blanche from Home Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa to shoot on sight. Nepal Police’s role in criminal investigation has now been taken over by the Home Ministry. On Monday, an alleged gangster was shot in an ‘encounter’ in broad daylight in the capital.Indeed, Minister Thapa (a former Maoist guerrilla commander himself) has been going beyond his ministry’s mandate to crack down on bus syndicates, lethargic road contractors, and even sidewalk vegetable and meat vendors. The criminal investigation and legal process are bypassed as suspects are taken straight to jail – presumed guilty until proven innocent. There may be some support for this from people sick of syndicates and swindlers, but it has eroded the rule of law, demoralised honest policemen, and flouted due process.The Home Ministry’s over-reach has been taken by many as yet another worrying sign of an authoritarian tendency in the united Communist government, which with its new Madhesi partner now has more than two-thirds majority in Parliament. Prime Minister Oli obviously has to balance his former party’s democratic values with the Maoists who have never formally abandoned violence as a political tool, and never apologised for conflict-era excesses.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/from-rebels-to-rulers/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">From rebels to rulers</a>, Om Astha Rai<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/gangamaya-hunger-justice,4180" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gangamaya Adhikari</a>, the mother of a teenager allegedly abducted, tortured and killed by the Maoists, is on the third week of her fast unto death at Bir Hospital. Her husband <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/Maoist-hungry-ghosts,3261" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nanda Prasad</a> died three years ago during their prolonged hunger strike, and his body is still in the hospital’s morgue. She resumed her fast on Republic Day, when the government got a presidential pardon for <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/united-we-stand/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bal Krishna Dhungel</a>, a Maoist convicted of a murder during the war.The Maoists are hoping that by merging with the relatively-clean UML, they can wash the blood off their hands, and keep transitional justice in limbo. That plan may very well work. However, this has engrained a culture of impunity, and the idea that anyone can get away with anything. Thus, corruption in all three organs of government is eating away at the state structure from within, dashing hopes that last year’s elections would ensure accountability and good governance.There are other examples this week of the Communist government bristling at free speech. Information Minister Gokul Banskota closed down a NTV program after the anchor grilled him about his asset declaration. And Pushpa Kamal Dahal, angry at media reports of his landlord being the main defaulter on road contracts, warned journalists they were getting too big for their boots.The Nepal Communist Party’s election promise of ‘stability’ is becoming synonymous with ‘absolutism’. And ‘prosperity’seems to apply only to office-bearers. We already see evidence of this at the municipality and rural levels where contractors elected to office are <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/trickledown-corruption,4176" target="_blank" rel="noopener">plundering natural resources</a>. And in Kathmandu there is tendency to make high-profile populist crackdowns without due process, with no followup.The Cabinet is expected to approve new guidelines under the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-crow-and-the-scarecrow/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">National Integrity Policy</a> which, as we reported here in a previous issue, sound draconian and so broadly worded that anyone can be taken in for anything. The code of conduct for INGOs, aid agencies and foreign missions appear to be intended for control rather than cooperation. All this is being justified in the name of stopping religious conversion, protecting national unity, and removing corruption.A government really serious about controlling organised crime would go after the Biplab faction of the Maoists who tried to violently disrupt elections, and in the past months have been terrorising, extorting, and confiscating property throughout the land. The comrades are being allowed to do whatever they like by their erstwhile comrades in government.As we <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/from-rebels-to-rulers/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">report from Province 2</a>, it is an irony of our times that a federal state that was supposed to devolve power to local elected assemblies is now more centralised than ever before. In fact, today power is concentrated in the hands of only two men: PM Oli and PM-in-waiting Dahal. <h2>10 years ago this week</h2> The <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=14920#.WyPPzxIzYnU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">front page</a> image of #404 of Nepali Times dated 13-19 June 2008, says it all. Here is an excerpt from the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=14922#.WyPP8xIzYnU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">editorial</a>:Two weeks after the declaration of the republic, the debate over who should be the first president is deadlocked. Two months after the elections, the Maoists have still not been able to form a government.History repeats itself as farce. We have voted to power a utopian ideology that the rest of the world paid for with the death of tens of millions. One could never accuse Nepali politicians of being ahead of the times, but we had never realised till now just what a bunch of dinosaurs they are.There were socio-political reasons for the Maoist victory, of course. Perhaps contributing to it also was our collective blind spot for history and the deliberate airbrushing of atrocities in the past century. <img width="640" height="995" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107111148/6368e3179c7e80680e033364jpeg.jpg" alt="">

TOWARDS A POLICE STATE

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.

Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy

American artist Peter Makela was in Nepal in 2022 on a Fulbright scholarship when he experienced the Matya festival in Patan in which devotees made the rounds of the city’s shrines.&nbsp;
He joined the procession, walking through 2,600 stupa and 140 bahal of the town. That immersion left a lasting impression.
As part of Gallery Mcube’s international residency program in Patan, he put his inspiration to canvas in the exhibition Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping. The exhibition also coincides with this month’s Matya festival.&nbsp;
Makela has visited Nepal often in the past 11 years but he mostly stayed in and spent his time around Boudha. “This time I stayed in Patan, put the sites I wanted to visit on my map, and off I went,” he tells us. “Each of my artwork is inspired by the stupas and shrines in Patan that I visited.”
The stupa and Ganesh are recurring motifs in his watercolours, and the elephant gods are located in chaityas — reflecting the interplay and blending of the Hindu and Buddhist faiths in Kathmandu Valley.&nbsp;
The stupas and Ganesh are painted in vivid red, yellow, blue and green against abstract backgrounds meant to represent the sky.
“I use the sky as a backdrop because the sky has no border,” says Makela. “The four colours represent the four elements, the different Buddha families and also lights bouncing off of a rainbow.”
The use of just four colours for all the artwork stands out, and combined with the absence of heavy canvases, frames or stands render Makela’s art striking in its simplicity.&nbsp;
The Ganesh is always holding something and the art also portrays the elephant god’s sacred vehicle, the mouse.
While his vibrant stupas and Ganesh reflect the tangibility of Patan’s tradition and heritage, it is as if the backdrops with their shades of grey and red and yellow capture the soul of the city’s shrines.
“If you look closely, there is a sense of form and formlessness at the same time,” he says.&nbsp;
Makela walked 108 kora around the shrines during his exploration of the town, and in the process developed a spiritual connection with Patan’s heritage and traditions.&nbsp;
The exhibition connects with visitors on a deeper, more spiritual, level as well. And with it, they feel a sense of pride as well as the need to urgently preserve Patan’s heritage for future generations.
“Peter’s inclination and approach towards Nepali art and culture is fascinating, and it reflects in his work,” says Mcube curator Manish Lal Shrestha, whose international artist residency program promotes Nepal’s cultural heritage. &nbsp;&nbsp;
Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping
1-5 August&nbsp;
10AM-7PM
Gallery Mcube, Patan