<figure><img width="768" height="513" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131124/636ceda79c7e80680e09addbjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>On 12 May, 15 Covid-19 patients died in Rupendehi and Nepalganj after the hospitals there ran out of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/two-nepals-in-the-death-zone/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">oxygen supply</a>. Another 18 patients died the next day in Kathmandu’s Bir Hospital and Trauma Centre because they could not get their oxygen cylinders refilled in time. Private hospitals in Kathmandu Valley including Medicare, MediCiti, Om, Helping Hands, Longevity, Karuna, Voyodha, Madhyapur Thimi, and Star stopped admitting coronavirus patients, saying they had enough <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-life-or-death-o2-quest/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">medical oxygen</a> only for existing patients.Some patients had to quickly find ambulances and move to another hospital with an empty oxygen-equipped bed after the one they were in ran out of oxygen. Those who could not move died in their beds, gasping for air.Murari Prasad Kharel at the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) makes a legal distinction between dying of the coronavirus, and death of a patient due to lack of medical oxygen in a hospital. One is a disease, the other is a violation of human rights, he says. "It was a given that there would be a new outbreak of Covid-19. Yet, many people lost their lives prematurely due to ineffective hospital management. The government completely failed in its main responsibility of protecting its citizens,” he says.All <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/kathmandu-valley-lockdown-till-12-may/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">coronavirus deaths</a> in hospitals are lumped together under Covid-19 fatalities, however there needs to be a distinction between whether a patient died despite being given all the care necessary, or because the oxygen supply ran out. These are two completely different conditions and should be treated as such, says a retired chief justice of the Supreme Court. Health is a basic human need and it is the state’s responsibility to ensure it, he says, the patients did not die of Covid, but because of negligence.A bench of Supreme Court Justice Bamkumar Shrestha on 11 May ordered the government to ‘Facilitate the supply of oxygen and medicines required for the treatment of those infected ... and immediately dispense human resources taking into account the increasing number of patients.’Some hospitals in Kathmandu are admitting Covid patients only after families sign an undertaking that the hospital will not be held responsible if the patient dies due to the lack of oxygen. Activists call this ‘a crime against humanity’.On 14 May Lily Thapa of the NHRC called on Deputy Prime Minister Ishwor Pokhrel who also heads the Covid-19 Crisis Management Centre (CCMC) and drew his attention to the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-is-a-priority-for-vaccine-shipments/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">oxygen shortage</a> being a human rights violation. Hospitals in Kathmandu need 22,0000 cylinders of oxygen a day, but presently there are only 12,000 cylinders available per day—both because of the lack of cylinders being sent for refills, as well as insufficient oxygen production. <figure><img width="1500" height="1277" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131124/636cedaa9c7e80680e09addcjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>Till a month ago, Narayan Dutta Timilsina of the Nepal Oxygen Producers Association was confident that there was enough generation capacity to meet demand, but <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/we-knew-the-tsunami-was-approaching/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the number of serious Covid cases rose so steeply</a> that everyone was caught unprepared. For example, on 25 April as the number of infections started rising, there were 252 Covid patients in ICU and 65 were on ventilator. By this week, there were nearly 1,500 patients in ICU and more than 300 needing ventilator support. Grande Hospital, one of Kathmandu’s biggest private centres, has 80 Covid-19 patients, and all of them need oxygen for which it needs at least 200 cylinders a day. It can only get 50.The Lumbini Provincial Hospital in Butwal needs 700 cylinders a day for its Covid patients, and it was assured 300 a day by the local government. It is not even getting 200, and has been turning serious patients away. "Oxygen is not a luxury, but an essential basic need. Hospitals need to ensure adequate supply, and the government must help,” says the former director of Epidemiology and Disease Control Division Baburam Marasini. It may be too early to hope, but there are indications that the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/covid-19-numbers-slightly-down-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">graphs for daily new infections is flattening</a>, and the numbers who have recovered is also rising. On Tuesday, there were a total of 8,203 new cases, 2,635 of them in Kathmandu Valley. There were 196 fatalities in the last 24 hours. While the test positivity rate is still high at 39%, there were 6,891 recoveries.In addition, 3,000 of the 20,000 empty oxygen cylinders gifted by China have been flown in. Another 2,500 cylinders have come overland through Kodari, and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-diaspora-comes-to-the-rescue/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepali workers in the gulf have collected money to send</a> at least 1,000 cylinders. Private groups are also stepping in to fly in oxygen concentrators and generators. On Monday, Indian Ambassador Vinay Mohan Kwatra assured that India would increase its quota of liquid oxygen for Nepal.

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Helping Nepalis breathe again

<figure><img width="768" height="513" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111148/636b85919c7e80680e0677fejpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>On 12 May, 15 Covid-19 patients died in Rupendehi and Nepalganj after the hospitals there ran out of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/two-nepals-in-the-death-zone/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">oxygen supply</a>. Another 18 patients died the next day in Kathmandu’s Bir Hospital and Trauma Centre because they could not get their oxygen cylinders refilled in time. Private hospitals in Kathmandu Valley including Medicare, MediCiti, Om, Helping Hands, Longevity, Karuna, Voyodha, Madhyapur Thimi, and Star stopped admitting coronavirus patients, saying they had enough <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-life-or-death-o2-quest/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">medical oxygen</a> only for existing patients.Some patients had to quickly find ambulances and move to another hospital with an empty oxygen-equipped bed after the one they were in ran out of oxygen. Those who could not move died in their beds, gasping for air.Murari Prasad Kharel at the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) makes a legal distinction between dying of the coronavirus, and death of a patient due to lack of medical oxygen in a hospital. One is a disease, the other is a violation of human rights, he says. "It was a given that there would be a new outbreak of Covid-19. Yet, many people lost their lives prematurely due to ineffective hospital management. The government completely failed in its main responsibility of protecting its citizens,” he says.All <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/kathmandu-valley-lockdown-till-12-may/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">coronavirus deaths</a> in hospitals are lumped together under Covid-19 fatalities, however there needs to be a distinction between whether a patient died despite being given all the care necessary, or because the oxygen supply ran out. These are two completely different conditions and should be treated as such, says a retired chief justice of the Supreme Court. Health is a basic human need and it is the state’s responsibility to ensure it, he says, the patients did not die of Covid, but because of negligence.A bench of Supreme Court Justice Bamkumar Shrestha on 11 May ordered the government to ‘Facilitate the supply of oxygen and medicines required for the treatment of those infected ... and immediately dispense human resources taking into account the increasing number of patients.’Some hospitals in Kathmandu are admitting Covid patients only after families sign an undertaking that the hospital will not be held responsible if the patient dies due to the lack of oxygen. Activists call this ‘a crime against humanity’.On 14 May Lily Thapa of the NHRC called on Deputy Prime Minister Ishwor Pokhrel who also heads the Covid-19 Crisis Management Centre (CCMC) and drew his attention to the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-is-a-priority-for-vaccine-shipments/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">oxygen shortage</a> being a human rights violation. Hospitals in Kathmandu need 22,0000 cylinders of oxygen a day, but presently there are only 12,000 cylinders available per day—both because of the lack of cylinders being sent for refills, as well as insufficient oxygen production. <figure><img width="1500" height="1277" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111148/636b85949c7e80680e0677ffjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Till a month ago, Narayan Dutta Timilsina of the Nepal Oxygen Producers Association was confident that there was enough generation capacity to meet demand, but <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/we-knew-the-tsunami-was-approaching/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the number of serious Covid cases rose so steeply</a> that everyone was caught unprepared. For example, on 25 April as the number of infections started rising, there were 252 Covid patients in ICU and 65 were on ventilator. By this week, there were nearly 1,500 patients in ICU and more than 300 needing ventilator support. Grande Hospital, one of Kathmandu’s biggest private centres, has 80 Covid-19 patients, and all of them need oxygen for which it needs at least 200 cylinders a day. It can only get 50.The Lumbini Provincial Hospital in Butwal needs 700 cylinders a day for its Covid patients, and it was assured 300 a day by the local government. It is not even getting 200, and has been turning serious patients away. "Oxygen is not a luxury, but an essential basic need. Hospitals need to ensure adequate supply, and the government must help,” says the former director of Epidemiology and Disease Control Division Baburam Marasini. It may be too early to hope, but there are indications that the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/covid-19-numbers-slightly-down-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">graphs for daily new infections is flattening</a>, and the numbers who have recovered is also rising. On Tuesday, there were a total of 8,203 new cases, 2,635 of them in Kathmandu Valley. There were 196 fatalities in the last 24 hours. While the test positivity rate is still high at 39%, there were 6,891 recoveries.In addition, 3,000 of the 20,000 empty oxygen cylinders gifted by China have been flown in. Another 2,500 cylinders have come overland through Kodari, and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-diaspora-comes-to-the-rescue/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepali workers in the gulf have collected money to send</a> at least 1,000 cylinders. Private groups are also stepping in to fly in oxygen concentrators and generators. On Monday, Indian Ambassador Vinay Mohan Kwatra assured that India would increase its quota of liquid oxygen for Nepal.

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110813114/636a460b9c7e80680e04d3b8jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3888" height="2592"/><figcaption>A classroom full of Bhutanese refugee children in Beldangi. Many of them have been denied resettlement to be with their families already in the US. Photo: JAMIE PIOTROWSKI</figcaption></figure>On 20 June it will be another World Refugee Day, another year in which we remember the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Bhutanese-refugees-resettlement-program-ending-in-2018,4121">world’s most forgotten eviction</a> of a people from their homeland. Of the 100,000 Nepali-speaking people of Bhutan that the Druk regime forced out in the early 1990s, there are still 7,000 in two camps in Jhapa and Morang. The rest have been <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2011/08/17/over-50000-butanese-refugees-resettled/">resettled in eight countries</a> around the world.The fate of the remaining refugees is a serious crisis because while the UN refugee agency <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/state-of-statelessness-for-refugees-in-nepal">(UNHCR)</a> has already warned it will be shutting down two remaining camps, the Government of Nepal has not advanced the option of long-pending repatriation. On the other side, the US government, which <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/resettlement-of-Bhutan-refugees-in-United-States,3404">absorbed 96,000 Bhutanese refugees</a> under a multilateral resettlement program, has already shut the door to further admissions.Although a majority of the just over 113,000 Bhutanese refugees opted for third-country resettlement, some among those remaining and their leaders, including exile-based political parties, continue to call for repatriation to Bhutan, but to no avail. If nothing changes, those refugees will prefer to stay in the camps.Yet, if UNHCR pulls out, a humanitarian crisis is likely to endanger the lives of hundreds of children and elderly refugees. Many among those longing for repatriation are the most vulnerable -- aged and illiterate individuals who need support.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110813114/636a460e9c7e80680e04d3b9jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="720"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Thimphu’s strategy is to convince Kathmandu to absorb the remaining refugees permanently. Irrespective of Bhutan’s approach, UNHCR must actively and continuously promote the repatriation option.With over 65 million forcibly displaced people around the world, we understand that the UNHCR and other humanitarian organisations want to shift their focus to other more needy refugees elsewhere in the world. We believe that it will be wrong for UNHCR to stop assisting Bhutanese refugees remaining in Nepal.Despite 16 rounds of bilateral talks between Nepal and Bhutan that last nearly 20 years, Thimphu prevailed with its stance of not taking back any of the 100,000 ethnic Nepalis and Sharchops it forcibly expelled in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Bilateral talks abruptly stopped in 2004 following an alleged attack on the Bhutanese <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=9608#.XPXz7tIza70">Joint Verification Team</a> at Khudunabari Camp, and no promising signs of resumption have been seen since.Given the common ancestral heritage between the remaining refugees and Nepal it might sound like the ideal solution for them to assimilate locally, but in reality it could be a big political blunder because an additional 80,000 ethnic Nepalis currently living in Bhutan and denied citizenship might be subject to a second forced exodus.To be fair, it is equally possible that some of those left behind in the refugee camps will be happy to assimilate in Nepal, as they have already lived there for three decades -- enough time to feel a sense of belonging. If doing so would ensure that Bhutan will not evict more refugees, perhaps the Government of Nepal should honour these individuals’ wishes. It would be painful for the world to see the refugees living in limbo in the camps instead of being repatriated or locally settled.<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=13593#.XPXzZtIza70">India, which keeps Bhutan under its armpit</a>, and the US, which absorbed the majority of the refugees, should start to pressure Thimphu to unlock the repatriation option so justice is served. It is the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=18150#.XPXzntIza70">ethical and moral responsibility</a> of these countries, as well as Nepal and the seven other western countries that resettled refugees, to advocate for the rights of those remaining. Resettlement was introduced as a humanitarian solution, not a permanent one.Bhutan has no choice but to repatriate refugees while providing restitution for their property in Bhutan. It should also introduce a bill allowing political parties in exile to register for elections. If repatriation happens, which it must somehow, Bhutan should also allow <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/live-together-work-together/">resettled former refugees</a> to travel to their country of origin. The current policy restricts them, even if they apply for a tourist visa. In the long run, this will boost the country’s growth.While the refugees in eastern Nepal await repatriation, we hope the UNHCR will not shirk from its responsibility and that other stakeholders will increase pressure on the Bhutanese government for the dignified return of the Bhutan nationals. At the very least, repatriation will be a victory for the Bhutanese against their country’s ethnic-cleansing policy._____Bhuwan Gautam and T P Mishra are both former refugees from Bhutan now settled in the United States. Gautam is a graduate of Westfield State University in public administration, and Mishra an international studies graduate from University of North Carolina and executive director at Bhutan Media Society.

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Who stands with Bhutanese refugees in Nepal?

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="700" frameborder="0"> </iframe></div>

Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

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