<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108181144/636a964a9c7e80680e05dc5cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/>Nepal has the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/can-nepal-be-the-powerhouse-of-asia/">fifth highest hydropower potential</a> in the world. Besides electricity, which can be used for peak energy supply, hydropower <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/reservoirs-of-suspicion/hydropower-geopolitics%20,3991">reservoirs</a> can also play a role in regulating water in rivers, flood control and irrigation.With federalism, Nepal has the potential to <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/Power-for-Nepal-review,2884">decentralise hydropower</a> along with political power. All seven provinces, except Province 2 in the Tarai, have enormous capacity to develop hydropower to generate downstream benefits, such as increasing agriculture output, boosting tourism and generating employment.The government’s current budget includes a provision to develop one large hydropower project in each province. Prioritising water value first and peak energy second, Nepal can double its megawatt potential by maximising storage and daily peaking of run-of-river projects, while regulating river flow.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/making-nepal-powerful/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Making Nepal powerful</a>, EditorialAll this would allow 5.4 million households across Nepal to gradually <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/look-whats-cooking-in-nepal/">replace imported cooking gas</a> and traditional firewood with cheaper electricity, reducing Nepal’s <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2012/08/14/lost-in-priority/">trade deficit</a> and <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=19406#.XdKA2dIza71">improving health by eliminating indoor pollution</a> from open kitchen fires.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108181144/636a964d9c7e80680e05dc5djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="281"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>If each family consumes 1KW of energy and if 3 million families switch from cooking gas and firewood, we will need 3,000MW in the morning and evening peak hours, which can be provided by new mega-projects designed to generate 15,000GWh. Of course, the distribution system would need to be improved and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-cost-of-light/">demand side reforms</a> have to be in place.The market value of the electricity generated could reach Rs180 billion, which would replace the import of Rs100 billion worth of cooking gas, Rs20 billion in transportation and petroleum products, and Rs50 billion worth of electricity for industries. With millions of people using electricity in the kitchen, indoor air would be healthier.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/an-energy-windfall-for-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">An energy windfall for Nepal?</a>, Kushal GurungThe main problem for the provinces today is that they do not have this supply, which is impeding industrial development and job creation. Developing hydropower will replace high-value raw materials and energy imports, and allow gross value addition compared to investment in other sectors.Income from selling the energy could provide the provinces with the resources to fund their own development projects. Initially, identifying and developing 500MW projects in each of the six provinces would generate a total of 3,000MW. The Nepal Electricity Authority’s current electricity rate of Rs12/unit would provide each province Rs30 billion in gross income — a total of Rs180 billion that could increase GDP by 10%.This plan would need the central and provincial governments to work closely together, with Kathmandu providing the financial guarantee and licenses for the provincial governments to develop projects.Cost of financing is a major component of the outlay in hydropower. Domestic banks loans at 13% interest would cut into profits, so projects would need international financing at 1-2% for 25 years. The Non-Resident Nepali Association could be the bridge to connect Nepal with financial assistance schemes like the Chinese Government’s BRI, the US Millennium Challenge Corporation, and others.Nepal could also seek financial assistance from the Export-Import (EXIM) Bank of China, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), Exim INDIA Bank, Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), Department for International Development (DFID), World Bank Group, Asian Development Bank (ADB), Export-Import Bank of Korea and others. Financing hydropower development of 5,000MW would require $12 billion in soft credit, to be paid back in 30 years, and earnings from these projects can easily sustain provincial development expenses.The Nepal Government’s 6 projects for 6 provinces would take 6 years to come into production after necessary preparations, such as a study report, environmental impact assessment, land acquisition and lease. A cabinet decision is all it would take to fast track the process, and construction could begin by the second year.  <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=18195#.XdJ_UtIza70">Gyanendra Lal Pradhan</a> is a member of the <a href="http://cnind.org/">Confederation of Nepalese Industries</a>, and is associated with <a href="https://hydrosolutions.com.np/">Hydro Solutions</a>.

original

674x448

610x380

500x500

400x266

400x240

400x203

301x200

1250x600

1084x550

Decentralising (hydro)power

<figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108181148/636a96549c7e80680e05dc60jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: EDCW</figcaption></figure>Last month saw the historic signing of the Nepal-India energy Joint Steering Committee agreement to build the new Butwal-Gorakhpur 400KV crossborder transmission line. When completed, it opens up the possibility of Nepal exporting surplus power to regional markets like India and Bangladesh from power projects in the Marsyangdi, Kali Gandaki and Budi Gandaki corridors. With so many hydropower schemes in the pipeline, Nepal may soon have surplus energy at certain times of year, which makes crossborder transmission lines imperative. Discussions about Bangladesh’s desire to import up to 9,000MW of electricity means Nepal must have a clear business model for the regional electricity market.Besides hydropower, the new crossborder transmission line has also opened up the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/energy-windfall-in-Nepal,2539">prospect of large-scale wind and solar farms</a> in cold, windy and cloudless regions like Mustang and other trans-Himalayan districts.A Global Atlas prepared by the World Bank shows Mustang is ideal for wind and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-turns-to-solar-and-batteries-to-meet-peak-demand/">solar</a> energy development. Just using 2% of the district’s land area for solar could yield a generation capacity of 3,000MW, along with 1,200MW through wind energy projects. (See accompanying maps).Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/making-nepal-powerful/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Making Nepal powerful</a>, Editorial  <img width="1500" height="993" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108181148/636a96589c7e80680e05dc61jpeg.jpg" alt="">Some will question the need to go for wind and solar in a country with such abundant hydropower potential. However, wind and solar are the fastest growing energy sources globally, accounting for more than 70% of new energy addition since 2013.Low cost and speed of installation make these technologies attractive <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/biomass-energy-for-nepal-plains,2098">even in countries with hydropower</a>. Some of the potential for wind and solar power in Nepal will be discussed at the Independent Power Producers’ Association, Nepal (IPPAN) Power Summit 2019 in Kathmandu, 21-22 November.Latest solar auctions have seen prices drop below two cents per KW/h. In India, the Adani group built the 648MW Kamuthi solar power project in Tamil Nadu within one year. It is unimaginable to build a hydro project of such a size so fast.To be sure, building <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=16902#.XcujT9Iza70">wind</a> and solar projects in Mustang would not be a cake walk. Transmission lines and road access remain challenges, although they are improving and could be surmounted if the resources are allocated. The 10m wide Beni-Korala highway currently under construction would be a notable step forward.A 220KV substation is being built in Dana, 40 km from Jomsom, but land acquisition and environmental approvals are major roadblocks. The entire district falls inside the Annapurna Conservation Area and existing rules require environmental impact assessments for new energy projects — even though nothing would be more environment friendly than renewable energy development. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/decentralising-hydropower/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Decentralising (hydro)power</a>, Gyanendra Lal Pradhan  <img width="1500" height="1135" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108181148/636a965b9c7e80680e05dc62jpeg.jpg" alt="">Red tape and overlapping jurisdiction between municipal, provincial and national government make the entire approval process more arduous than the construction itself. Likewise, almost 99% of the land in Mustang is government-owned, and buying or leasing it requires official approval, which could also take years. Without resolving these issues, it will be difficult to attract investment, domestic or foreign.The onus is on the federal government to come up with a solution, and with a two-thirds majority in Parliament, the ruling party has an historic opportunity to move fast. One solution could be to replicate the successful model of the Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI), a central government undertaking formed under the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy dedicated to developing large-scale, grid-connected solar and wind projects. Registered as a power trader, its role is to auction and manage solar and wind farms.SECI develops large-scale projects then auctions them to independent power producers (IPPs) to build, own and operate. SECI then signs 25-year deals with the lowest bidders, buying the power from them and selling it to state electricity-distributing companies at a nominal premium. The SECI model is a win-win for IPPs and utilities, which do not have to spend time and resources to develop projects, while utilities get electricity at a competitive rate due to the bidding process.Exporting electricity is arguably our biggest opportunity to reduce the trade deficit with India, and together with hydropower we must also pick the low hanging fruits of solar and wind energy. If we want to do it big and quick, we must develop gigawatt-scale wind and solar projects in Mustang, where it is realistic to generate and export 3,000MW of solar and wind power within five years. <a style="background-color: #ffffff; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/wind-energy-for-electricity-in-nepal,1997">Kushal Gurung</a> is CEO of <a style="background-color: #ffffff; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="http://www.windpowernepal.com/">WindPower Nepal</a> and head of the <a style="background-color: #ffffff; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.edcnepal.org/">Energy Development Council</a>.

An energy windfall for Nepal?

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108141156/636a60af9c7e80680e056e91jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="480"/>The Independent Power Producers Association of Nepal (IPPAN) is hosting the <a href="http://www.nepalenergyforum.com/power-summit-2019/">Nepal Power Summit</a> from 21-22 November in Kathmandu. The event will draw over 700 energy experts from Nepal and globally.<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/business/Power-investors-meet-2018,4130">Past Hydropower Summits</a> and <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2013/08/26/powered-up/">Energy Conclaves</a> have yielded little results, and there is mental fatigue among Nepalis about seminars, conferences, workshops and summits because they are usually talk shops with no follow up action and real tangible impact.This year’s Nepal Power Summit is based on Nepal’s achievements in the sector in the recent past, and will focus on regional energy trade, transmission lines infrastructure, enabling regulations and financing. The key breakthrough in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/invest-in-investment/">mobilising investment in energy</a> will depend on breaking monopolies and opening up new markets. No one will invest in power unless there is somewhere to sell it.Which is why Nepal needs to create <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-cost-of-light/">greater demand at home</a>. The summit will look into all possibilities including energy for transport, which presently is almost solely dependent on imported fossil fuels. The idea is that we must use as much energy for productive domestic end uses before we plan to export.The theme for this year’s summit is Powering the Asian Century, and this is a recognition of the region becoming an engine of global economic growth. Rising living standards of Asians need goods and services that are produced with <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-turns-to-solar-and-batteries-to-meet-peak-demand/">clean, renewable</a> energy that do not exacerbate the climate crisis and contribute to air pollution.Nepal can and should position itself as the source of clean hydropower for the Asian century. We need to grab this opportunity, it could our chance to bring really big change to Nepal.While some people <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/how-they-kept-nepal-in-the-dark-ages/">cursed the darkness during the years of power cuts</a>, the private sector stepped up and took the lead. The public and the government began to engage, and then came the investors.  Nepal was still addicted to foreign aid and pleaded at donor meetings to get other countries to build power plants for us, free of cost.The idea of investment replacing aid is now catching on, however old habits die hard and the dependency syndrome is still deeply rooted. The Chinese president just reminded us that only Nepalis can develop Nepal. Others can help mobilise resources, give us access to technology and finance, but at the end of the day, Nepalis will have to do the heavy lifting.Nearly one in four Nepalis are now working, earning and sending money home from all parts of the globe. The spending power of Nepalis can be felt during these weeks of festivities. Gold and land are still the preferred investments for people who still do not trust the market, the businesses and the government.Hydropower is perhaps the one sector that is now able to draw public investment. We have to remind people that investing in hydropower is a good idea and protect the money small and big investors put into energy by expanding domestic and regional demand for the electricity generated.Nepalis then need to wean themselves from imported LPG, petrol and diesel. The energy sector in Nepal can create hundreds of thousands of new jobs and help keep our young professionals at home. Along the way, we have to learn how to better negotiate with our neighbours and respond to their market needs.We are not fooling anyone by lining our streets with flower pots and cloth banners to cover our dirty rivers for a couple of days. Ensuring the prosperity of 30 million people is hard work, but powering the Asian century is our historic opportunity.Anil Chitrakar is President of Siddharthinc.

Anil Chitrakar

Can Nepal be the powerhouse of Asia?

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.

Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy

American artist Peter Makela was in Nepal in 2022 on a Fulbright scholarship when he experienced the Matya festival in Patan in which devotees made the rounds of the city’s shrines.&nbsp;
He joined the procession, walking through 2,600 stupa and 140 bahal of the town. That immersion left a lasting impression.
As part of Gallery Mcube’s international residency program in Patan, he put his inspiration to canvas in the exhibition Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping. The exhibition also coincides with this month’s Matya festival.&nbsp;
Makela has visited Nepal often in the past 11 years but he mostly stayed in and spent his time around Boudha. “This time I stayed in Patan, put the sites I wanted to visit on my map, and off I went,” he tells us. “Each of my artwork is inspired by the stupas and shrines in Patan that I visited.”
The stupa and Ganesh are recurring motifs in his watercolours, and the elephant gods are located in chaityas — reflecting the interplay and blending of the Hindu and Buddhist faiths in Kathmandu Valley.&nbsp;
The stupas and Ganesh are painted in vivid red, yellow, blue and green against abstract backgrounds meant to represent the sky.
“I use the sky as a backdrop because the sky has no border,” says Makela. “The four colours represent the four elements, the different Buddha families and also lights bouncing off of a rainbow.”
The use of just four colours for all the artwork stands out, and combined with the absence of heavy canvases, frames or stands render Makela’s art striking in its simplicity.&nbsp;
The Ganesh is always holding something and the art also portrays the elephant god’s sacred vehicle, the mouse.
While his vibrant stupas and Ganesh reflect the tangibility of Patan’s tradition and heritage, it is as if the backdrops with their shades of grey and red and yellow capture the soul of the city’s shrines.
“If you look closely, there is a sense of form and formlessness at the same time,” he says.&nbsp;
Makela walked 108 kora around the shrines during his exploration of the town, and in the process developed a spiritual connection with Patan’s heritage and traditions.&nbsp;
The exhibition connects with visitors on a deeper, more spiritual, level as well. And with it, they feel a sense of pride as well as the need to urgently preserve Patan’s heritage for future generations.
“Peter’s inclination and approach towards Nepali art and culture is fascinating, and it reflects in his work,” says Mcube curator Manish Lal Shrestha, whose international artist residency program promotes Nepal’s cultural heritage. &nbsp;&nbsp;
Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping
1-5 August&nbsp;
10AM-7PM
Gallery Mcube, Patan