Nepal and India signed a 25-year energy trade deal during Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar's visit to Nepal on Thursday under which Nepal will export 10,000MW of electricity to India over the next 10 years.
Former Energy Secretary Dinesh Kumar Ghimire, who was among the officials involved in drafting the deal on behalf of Nepal, says the agreement is a blueprint for bilateral electricity trade that has significant implications for Nepal in the long term.
“This agreement has ensured that electricity produced in Nepal will get a market in India, thus giving investors confidence that India will buy Nepal’s electricity,” Ghimire adds.
Some have compared this to how India’s investment in power export projects in Bhutan have raised that country’s living standards, giving it the second highest GDP per capita in South Asia.&nbsp;
However, critics say India is behind like a colonial power and exploiting Nepal’s main resource for its own benefit not for electricity but to regulate the waters of the tributaries of the Ganges that flow down from Nepal.
The 10,000MW electricity to be exported within the next decade will also include power generated from India-constructed and supported projects, something that has caused experts to question whether the agreement will ultimately apply exclusively to electricity exported from current and future Indian hydropower projects in Nepal.&nbsp;
Two Indian state-owned companies, SVJN and NHPC, are currently involved in projects with a combined capacity of 4,600MW across Nepal. Meanwhile, India has been lobbying to construct more hydropower infrastructure, which could mean that 80% of the electricity exported under the bilateral agreement in the next 10 years will come from India-supported projects.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/missing-pieces-of-the-hydropower-jigsaw">Missing pieces of the hydropower jigsaw</a>, Sonia Awale&nbsp;
The Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) says that Nepal’s electricity generation capacity has exceeded 2,800MW, of which nearly 50% is consumed domestically. Although the NEA has been taking initiatives to export surplus power during the monsoon to India, the country has adopted a selective policy in regard to buying electricity from Nepal.
For instance, India has declared that it will not purchase electricity from projects that have Chinese and Pakistani involvement. That includes the 456MW Upper Tama Kosi project, which although built on Nepal’s investment had Chinese contractors from the company Sino Hydro.&nbsp;
In October 2021, the NEA received permission to sell 39MW of electricity at a competitive rate in the IEX, the Indian energy exchange market. India has to date increased that limit to 657MW, out of which Nepal exports 547MW to India's competitive market and 110MW falls under a medium-term bilateral export deal.
However, India-imposed quotas on power purchases have meant that more than 600MW worth of electricity goes to waste annually during the monsoon in Nepal.
Other critics say that the long-term power trade agreement has further deepened Nepal’s political dependence on India, and established an Indian monopoly over Nepal’s water resources.&nbsp;
Indeed, the agreement has made it clear that the trade will only involve hydropower projects with 'bilateral benefit’, which means that hydropower projects built with Chinese involvement will not find a market in India.&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/india-nepal-ignore-climate-crisis-in-river-talks">India, Nepal ignore climate crisis in river talks</a>, Ramesh Bhushal
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This is in line with India's Conduct of Business Rule (CBR) issued in February 2021, under which the country will not import electricity from neighbouring countries that do not have an energy trade agreement.&nbsp;
Nepal does not have ongoing hydropower projects where Pakistan is involved, but India’s stance has resulted in numerous Chinese investors and contractors reconsidering their involvement in Nepal’s hydropower projects.&nbsp;
Former Energy Secretary Ghimire says government officials have continuously been raising questions about its policy on not purchasing electricity from Chinese-supported projects, adding that he is hopeful India will change current restrictions regarding China-supported and built projects in Nepal.&nbsp;
The country’s commitment to green energy is an important bargaining chip for Nepal, Ghimire notes. “Nepal needs to recognise India’s commitments towards renewable energy and formulate strategies accordingly to persuade Indian authorities to review their current policies,” he explains.
Krishna Acharya, former president of the Independent Power Producers' Association, Nepal (IPPAN), says that the current agreement is encouraging, but that Nepal needs to work quickly on its own policies related to power generation to support the deal.
“If Nepal’s private sector were to be allowed to enter the electricity business, there would be a lot less uncertainty in the market,” says Acharya.&nbsp;
NEA Executive Director Kulman Ghising is optimistic that India will be more lenient with its terms and conditions in the future.&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-geopolitics-of-nepal-s-water-and-electricity">The geopolitics of Nepal’s water and electricity</a>, Ramesh Kumar
"The current agreement is historic, and we have to do our bit to make sure we implement it properly," he says, “we have to continue efforts to increase our exports beyond 10,000MW in the future.”
Nepal’s government has formulated an energy development strategy with a target of generating a total of 28,000MW of electricity within the next 12 years, out of which 13,000MW will be for domestic consumption and 15,000MW for export to other countries including India.
Also during the visit, India increased its assistance through High Impact Community Development Projects (HICDP) to Rs200 million, up from Rs50 million. Earlier known as small development projects, HICDP started with Rs30 in 2003 and was later increased to Rs50 million when Baburam Bhattarai was the prime minister.
While HICDP can help Nepal implement crucial development projects at the local levels, it will be entirely up to India to choose who and what to fund.
Under HICDP, local governments and NGOs can apply for assistance directly but as per the directive rural municipalities and municipalities should chip in 5% and 10% as counterpart funds. But even that is not binding.
Even so, such cooperation is contrary to Nepal's Constitution and federal policy on international cooperation. Taking such assistance without formally notifying the federal government is a 'red carpet' for foreign interference, critics say. Civil society members have called the deal non-transparent which is bound to weaken Nepal’s sovereignty.
Nepal’s Energy Secretary Gopal Sigdel and his Indian counterpart Pankaj Agrawal signed the agreement on behalf of the two countries.
The long-term bilateral agreement was first announced during Nepali Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s visit to India last May and was officially endorsed by India’s Council of Ministers in September.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-india-power-play">Nepal-India power play</a>, Ramesh Kumar

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Blueprint for Nepal-India electricity trade

This June, monsoon rains brought freak floods to the mountains of Nepal while parts of the plains reeled from a severe water shortage. This has always been the story of the Himalaya: either too much water or too little. This contrast is now aggravated by the impact of the climate crisis. While flash floods ravaged eastern Nepal, destroying hydropower plants, wells dried out in the Tarai on the border with India amidst a prolonged drought affecting rice planting. The water table on both sides of the border has been going down due to over-extraction by deep tube wells as well as the destruction of the groundwater recharge areas of the Chure Range, the southernmost foothills of the Himalaya. The Chure is being ravaged by quarries, deforestation and population growth. However, this transboundary water crisis is absent from bilateral negotiations on river sharing between India and Nepal. Nepali Times columnist Chandra Kishore was the first to draw attention to the seriousness of the water crisis. He wrote in a page 1 report in this newspaper on 28 July: ‘The climate crisis is a water crisis, and access to water used to be determined by who bore deep wells for water. But even those with pumps do not have water, and the worst hit are the poorest families.’ Chandra Kishore has taken to social media to express his frustration that these important issues never seem to be on the political agenda in India or Nepal, and even less in conversations between the two governments. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/borderlines/grain-drain">Grain drain</a>, Chandra Kishore “Kathmandu listens a bit but doesn’t act, since the leadership is too busy dealing with India on how to stay on in power,” he says. “And Bihar’s voice rarely reaches Delhi.” The Indian state is currently governed by a party opposed to the BJP that rules India. Chandra Kishore’s frustration speaks to a wider failure by the Nepali government to prioritise domestic problems — from changes in the Himalayan water cycle and ecological destruction to a shortage of electricity grids – if they complicate or threaten economic ties with India. Up to 70% of the annual water flow in the Ganges River comes down from tributaries in Nepal — most of that in the four monsoon months. These Himalayan rivers are central to the lives and livelihoods of millions of citizens in India and Nepal. Poor water management in both countries with poorly designed flood control embankments and infrastructure, insufficient groundwater recharge, and over-pumping have worsened the effect of weather extremes due to the climate crisis. Despite these factors, high-profile bilateral discussions between India and Nepal usually overlook climate change and other environmental concerns. In 2014, the countries jointly issued a 35-point press release on Narendra Modi’s first prime ministerial visit to Nepal that did not even mention climate change. During the next four visits Modi has made, the climate crisis has never come up.&nbsp; Rather than talking about the vulnerabilities of their shared river systems, India and Nepal use these meetings solely to explore the potential to generate hydropower. Hydro-electricity makes up 96% of Nepal’s installed electricity capacity, and exporting power to India could help Nepal reduce its trade deficit. During Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s visit to India in June, a long-term energy trade agreement was finalised. Prime Minister Modi confirmed in a joint press conference that India would import 10,000MW of electricity in the next decade. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/balance-of-power">Balance of Power</a>, Sonia Awale  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2023082519080_fddd55cd2af19d62b216471a41a205703cfb10869e98c84b98e2c17dc38846fa.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="2023082519080_fddd55cd2af19d62b216471a41a205703cfb10869e98c84b98e2c17dc38846fa" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Dam site of Upper Karnali hydropower "> <figcaption>Dam site of Upper Karnali hydropower (900MW) in Daab in Dailekh district. The Indian company GMR is in the final stage to start construction of the project.</figcaption> </figure>  Experts say that India’s main concern is not electricity but water, and its planners are fully aware of the impact climate change will have on future water availability. But Indian officials hide the real agenda by talking only about electricity. Nepal’s former water resources minister Dipak Gyawali told The Third Pole: “To India, climate change is a foreign agenda and for Nepal, it’s something to talk about to be nice, especially with western countries.” While Nepal negotiates with India to try to export more hydroelectricity, many within Nepal do not have adequate or reliable supply of power. The Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) has been trying to unsuccessfully increase domestic consumption, and one reason is frequent power cuts even during the monsoon. Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) spokesperson Suresh Bahadur Bhattarai says the installed hydropower generation in the rainy season is 2,800MW, while peak demand hovers at 1,800MW. There is surplus power, but there are not enough transmission lines to evacuate power. Energy experts say there has been too much focus on electricity generation and not enough on transmission lines. Says former head of NEA Mukesh Kafle: “As a result, several hydro projects haven’t been able to dispatch generated energy to the grid and, with increasing demand, local distributions systems aren’t able to handle the load.”&nbsp; Most of Nepal’s hydropower is generated by private investors, and one such is the Super Dordi in Lamjung district. The Dordi River is in full spate because of heavy rains this month, but the scheme with an installed capacity of 54MW is only generating 10MW.&nbsp; Says Super Dordi’s Ganesh Karki: “If we had a transmission line, we could run at full capacity.” The reason for power outages this monsoon is not because there is not enough electricity, but because inadequate transmission lines means the power generated cannot be distributed to the load centres, leading to frequent tripping. &nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-india-power-play">Nepal-India power play</a>, Ramesh Kumar  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2023082519080_446338cad11f4dedee1be6949aa3b422c0c31b6abda6b84f12abdb2a2bb1f9a2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="2023082519080_446338cad11f4dedee1be6949aa3b422c0c31b6abda6b84f12abdb2a2bb1f9a2" data-rendition-name="original" width="897" height="605" loading="lazy" alt="Hydropower graph"> </figure>  Addition of vital transmission lines was held up because of the delays in the ratification of the US-funded MCC scheme, as well as local obstruction to putting up poles and obtaining necessary permits to clear forests. “The outages are going to get worse if things remain the same,” the NEA’s Bhattarai warned.&nbsp; The Independent Power Producers Association of Nepal (IPPAN) would prefer to sell power domestically, but since it is difficult to increase power demand within Nepal and meet it with enough transmission lines, exporting to India is the only option. Nepal’s Department of Electricity Development has issued 241 construction licenses for generating more than 8,820MW. And there are hydropower construction applications awaiting approval that would generate more than 8,680MW. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Water Resources, Energy and Irrigation is working on a 10-year national hydropower strategy, but says it is not yet ready to share details. Not everybody is as excited about selling electricity to India. Gyawali thinks such interest in Nepali hydropower is being driven not by market forces, but by the Indian government’s wish to exercise strategic control over Nepal. India only imports hydroelectricity from Nepal that does not have Chinese investment or involvement. Indian companies have replaced China as the country’s principal investors in the hydropower sector. India is now involved in projects generating 4,000MW and a further 1,100MW was signed off between Dahal and Modi in June. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-geopolitics-of-nepal-s-water-and-electricity">The geopolitics of Nepal’s water and electricity</a>, Ramesh Kumar  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2023082519080_d02f8ca4827333387eeda9e6b08170f6224d166be3de89decd8e6c9e9316cdcc.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="2023082519080_d02f8ca4827333387eeda9e6b08170f6224d166be3de89decd8e6c9e9316cdcc" data-rendition-name="original" width="1266" height="856" loading="lazy" alt="Hydropower graph"> </figure>  River conservationists are also worried about the domestic cost of developing hydroelectricity for India. Megh Ale, president of the Nepal River Conservation Trust, says: “Imagine what will happen to these rivers if you just think about electricity. In the last two decades, we have dammed almost all our major river systems except the Karnali. We should also think about ecology and ecosystems while not undermining the need for electricity. The current madness will be costly.” Several studies have warned that Nepal’s dams have already impacted aquatic biodiversity. A study by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in 2018 says: ‘Damming of rivers has had huge environmental costs with serious and irreversible impacts, including a rapid decline in the population of many fish species.’ Basanta Raj Adhikari, the director of Tribhuvan University’s Centre for Disaster Studies says that Indian investment in Nepali hydropower is reason enough to take climate change into account: “It is going to impact India’s own investment. Extreme rainfall in June in the hills of eastern Nepal washed away several hydro projects.” The Institute for Social and Environmental Transition (ISET) in Kathmandu released a report in June on transboundary rivers that originate in the Chure Range. It highlights that the various Nepali-Indian agreements governing these rivers are obsolete and do not cover sustainable water management, participation, or recognise emerging risks. “It’s basically an underestimation of the scale of the problem,” says Ajaya Dixit of ISET.&nbsp; A June 2023 study by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) in Kathmandu says the availability of water in the Himalaya is expected to peak in mid-century, driven by accelerated glacial melt, after which it is projected to decline. It is not just Nepal, where the impacts of the climate crisis are being felt. This month’s devastating floods in northern India could also be a sign of worse to come. Climate change is going to have a geo-strategic impact because of how it will affect our rivers. But so far, the concern of experts and scientists is not reflected in bilateral and regional consultations on river sharing. &nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-s-precious-electricity-going-waste">Nepal’s precious electricity going waste</a>, Anita Bhetwal This version of the piece was originally published on The Third Pole under the Creative Commons license, and was written by Ramesh Bhushal, Nepal Editor at The Third Pole.

India, Nepal ignore climate crisis in river talks

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131124/637233e79c7e80680e0c4906jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="853" height="640"/><figcaption>The damage to the channel diverting water from the Melamchi to the tunnel at the project headwork. The debris here is 20m deep. Photo: SHIVA BASKOTA</figcaption></figure>In June 2021, a massive debris flow on the Melamchi River killed at least 30 people, submerged settlements, and nearly destroyed Nepal’s biggest infrastructure project to supply water to Kathmandu.Scientists blamed <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/how-the-climate-crisis-adds-to-child-marriage-in-nepal/">the climate crisis</a>. A wall of mud raced down the river after unprecedented rainfall at the beginning of the monsoon on glacial deposits left by melted ice.Boulders and mud paste buried the headworks of Melamchi Water Supply Project under 20m of debris, resulting in damage worth more than Rs2 billion. Timely closure of the gate saved the project’s 26km tunnel to Kathmandu from irreversible damage.“Melamchi project cost $800 million and nearly 25 years to complete, but it took just one weather event to render it nearly useless,” says water expert Madhukar Upadhyay. “It only goes on to prove that our landscape is not suitable for large infrastructure projects. And now we have climate change in the mix.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131124/637233eb9c7e80680e0c4907jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="500"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Nepal’s only reservoir project on the Kulekhani was commissioned in 1982 and was supposed to have a lifespan of 100 years. But a cloudburst in the catchment area in 1993 deposited so much debris into its lake that the cascade project that generates 106MW of electricity will now function for only another 30 years.The Himalayan mountains are warming between 0.3 to 0.7°C faster than the global average, and a report by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) predicted that even in the best-case scenario, more than one-third of the remaining ice will melt during this century. If current global heating trends continue, two-thirds of the ice will be gone.Meltwater from Himalayan glaciers collect behind fragile moraine dams, increasing the threat of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/danger-nepals-glacial-lakes-are-filling-up/">Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs)</a> that can wash away infrastructure: hydropower plants, highways, bridges and canals.As it is, many of these projects have either ignored or falsified their Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). They are built along rivers that have not been properly assessed for extreme weather.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131124/637233ee9c7e80680e0c4908jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640">A paper last month in the journal Nature Geoscience titled ‘High Mountain Asia hydropower systems threatened by climate-driven landscape instability’ has a checklist to minimise climate-driven hazards on Himalayan infrastructure.‘Maps of the distribution of paraglacial zones, sediment yield and hazard susceptibility that better delineate current and future unstable landscapes and erosion-prone regions should be produced,’ states the paper. ‘Policy development regarding maintaining existing and planning of new hydropower projects should be guided by such hazard and risk maps.’Researchers point out that storage capacity design <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/climate-risk-to-hydropower-investment/">should consider potential storage losses</a> associated with increasing sediment loads due to climate change, and provide additional storage, sediment bypassing, sluicing, dredging and drawdown flushing to minimise sedimentation and increase reservoir lifespans.Catchment management can reduce slope instability and erosion rates with reforestation and check dams. ‘For existing reservoirs, a reassessment of sediment management solutions aimed at enhancing sustainable sediment management is recommended,’ the Nature Geoscience paper states.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131124/637233f19c7e80680e0c4909jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Upadhyay agrees: “The first thing is to study and assess the area before the start of the project. In case they are already functioning, we have to monitor how they are affected, which will give us insights into future weather patterns. But most importantly, we need localised forecasts.”Indeed, the paper also recommends monitoring, forecasting and early-warning systems to be developed and implemented. ‘Strategically oriented monitoring networks that measure high-altitude climate, glacier and permafrost dynamics, glacial lakes, unstable slopes and water and sediment fluxes should be expanded for high-risk areas,’ it adds. Nepal has either too much or too little water. Seasonal floods and the weather extremes here predate climate change. Other disasters not related to climate, such as earthquakes, multiply the risk for infrastructure.And yet, there is no proper mechanism even to assess loss and damage post-disaster which is ironic given Nepal’s strong stance on climate justice at international climate conferences.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131124/637233f49c7e80680e0c490ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1231" height="603"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>“Loss and damage as an issue has been highly politicised, but it is also rooted in climate justice, and what we are experiencing today is a cumulative impact of the last 150 years,” explains climate scientist Ajaya Dixit. “Nepal must continue to be a part of this discourse, but we must also do our bit. We must not just lobby for funds but also for support and partnerships to actively address changes due to the climate.”Nepal’s current response to climate disasters is limited to search, rescue and relief. Mitigating and adapting to risk, for example by reducing the level of glacial lakes such as Imja and Two Rolpa, are dependent on funding.Nepal now has better standardised data through the BIPAD portal under the National Disaster Risk Reduction And Management Authority (NDRRMA). The next step is to map hazards, prioritise infrastructure and people most at risk through local first responders.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131124/637233f69c7e80680e0c490bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="857" height="500"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Adds Dixit: “We need a large-scale systemic change to adapt to the climate crisis but for now we can start with developing and implementing a robust assessing mechanism. And it is unacceptable that our infrastructure still follows designs, methods and metrics from the time when climate change was not even in our vocabulary.”Such is Nepal’s hydropower potential that it has provided it geopolitical leverage. India is increasingly expanding its investment on Nepal’s rivers, and building large reservoir projects. Chinese companies are building hydropower projects directly downstream from high-risk glacial lakes in Tibet.Climate disasters raise the issue of a cross-border risk, since many of Nepal’s start in China, where there are many glacial lakes that are at bursting point. GLOFs originating in China have in the past destroyed highways and hydropower projects on the Bhote Kosi.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131124/637233f99c7e80680e0c490cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1013" height="562"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Research by Chinese scientists on the Nyainqêntanglha mountains on the Tibetan Plateau even five years ago showed that the frequency of destructive GLOFs were increasing, and they proposed urgent mitigation measures.‘Potential damage from GLOF disasters is significant,’ wrote Shijin Wang and Lanyue Zhou in the <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13753-017-0152-7" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">International Journal of Disaster Risk Science</a>, ‘There is an urgent need for (Chinese) government departments to implement engineering measures on all potentially dangerous glacial lakes.’Nepal is increasingly reliant on selling its surplus electricity to India. Power generation in the monsoon exceeds 2,100MW even as average domestic demand stands at just 1,550 MW. Another 2,500MW of electricity will be added to the grid in the next two years, while 3,000MW of new projects are in the pipeline.But these projections are at the mercy of future climate-induced risk. Says Upadhyay: “If hydropower is indeed our future, we must treat it with that kind of seriousness and commitment. We must bring in experts who think not only in monetary terms, but holistically at how the climate crisis is changing the Himalayan landscape.”Read more: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/climate-risk-to-hydropower-investment/">Climate risk to hydropower investment</a>, Ajaya Dixit

Sonia Awale

Climate-smarter Himalayan infrastructure

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111140/636b84239c7e80680e06777ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1037"/><figcaption>A view of the project from across the Langtang Valley showing the receding Langtang Lirung Glacier, and the location of the intake, penstock and powerhouse. There is a drop of 300m, and the turbines generate 100kW of electricity. Photos: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption></figure>From the edge of the terminal moraine of the Langtang Lirung Glacier, there is a 360 degree view of icy peaks, and below is the monastery town of Kyanjin blanketed in overnight snow.Towering above is Langtang Lirung with snow being blown off its 7,227m summit, with the jagged peaks of Kimshun standing like bodyguards with Tserko Ri, Yala Peak and Gang Chhenpo. And to the south is the rampart of the Naya Kanga ridge.“When I was a boy we brought the yaks up here to graze, and they could cross the ice from one side of the glacier to the other,” says Gyalbu Tamang. “This lake was formed only in the last 20 years.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111140/636b84269c7e80680e06777bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1125"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>As climate change thaws the mountains, right across the eastern Himalaya in Nepal, Bhutan and southern Tibet, hundreds of new lakes have formed at the snouts of glaciers. Some have found outlets and emptied themselves, while others, like this one, swelled up dangerously.In the past 40 years, there have been 26 <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/langtang-copes-with-quake-and-covid/">glacial lake outburst floods on Nepal’s rivers</a>, and with newer and bigger lakes forming, they pose a serious risk to new roads, settlements and hydropower plants downstream.However, glacial lakes do not just need to be a threat, as has been shown by a unique project on the Langtang Lirung Glacier. This glacial lake at 4,100m is being drained to lower its level, and the water is used to generate electricity.The Langtang Microhydro Electricity Project was built three years after the 2015 earthquake-avalanche that devastated the valley, with help from the Hong Kong-based Kadoorie Charitable Foundation. The $534,000 scheme has a weir and spillway at the moraine, and the water is taken through a fibre glass-insulated penstock pipe to a powerhouse that generates 100kW of electricity, providing 24 hours of electricity to 120 households and tourist lodges in Kyanjin and Langtang.The project is a first-of-its-kind in Nepal to power a village, and holds promise for other remote Himalayan valleys where the risk posed by expanding glacial lakes can be mitigated, while at the same time providing electricity to tourism-dependent families.“It can be a plus-plus, you need to simply drive a glacial lake to turn a turbine while simultaneously lowering the water level and reducing the pressure on the moraine dam,” says energy economist and former Water Resource Minister <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/review/finding-the-nexus-between-water-food-and-energy/">Dipak Gyawali.</a>The only downside would be that most glacial lakes are at very high elevations where there are few settlements, and also the greater cost of transporting equipment by helicopter. But if the risk-reduction from glacial lake outburst floods is factored in, these multi-purpose projects would be cost-effective.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111140/636b842a9c7e80680e06777cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1125" height="1500"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111140/636b842d9c7e80680e06777djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1250" height="938"><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111140/636b84309c7e80680e06777ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1125"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>There are other dangerous glacial lakes in Nepal like <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/from-nepali-press/Diverting-danger,3172">Imja</a> in the Everest region and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/human-face-of-a-himalayan-climate-crisis/">Tso Rolpa</a> in Rolwaling Valley, where the water level has been lowered at enormous cost, but the schemes have not added the hydropower component. Tso Rolpa had a small power unit to supply electricity to the project, but it is not in use. Imja was financed by the UNDP with funding from the Global Environment Facility, while Tso Rolpa was funded by the Dutch government.Glacial lakes have been used to generate power in the Peruvian Andes, and in the Swiss Alps existing reservoirs filled with glacial melt have been generating 4% more electricity because of accelerated melting. The Swiss are even <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/04/17/climate/switzerland-glaciers-climate-change.html">mapping future hydropower plants</a> on glaciers for a time when all the ice will be gone. In <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2185.pdf?origin=ppub">Bhutan, a pilot scheme</a> on a glacial lake at 4,200m is trying to lower the water level using siphons, and plans to also see if it is feasible to generate electricity.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111140/636b84349c7e80680e06777fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1250" height="689"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Experts say that with a little more investment, the moraine dams on glacial lakes can be strengthened for a fraction of a cost of building a new artificial dam for electricity generation. For this, the Langtang Microhydro Project presents a working model for other glacial lakes in Nepal where there are plans to lower the water level."In previous decades it used to be expensive to build power plants on glacial lakes because they were so remote, but now that roads have reached many valleys, they are more feasible," says glaciologist Pradeep Mool.Gyalbu Tamang lost his parents and many relatives in the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/langtang-copes-with-quake-and-covid/">catastrophic earthquake-avalanche in 2015</a> that killed as many as 300 people in Langtang. But for him and other trekking lodge owners who used to depend on solar panels, the 24-hour electricity has transformed the quality of life.He says: “We can charge our phones, use appliances, the children can read at night, it is like living in a city.”Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/danger-nepals-glacial-lakes-are-filling-up/">DANGER: Nepal’s glacial lakes are filling up</a>, Nepali Times

Kunda Dixit

Nepal’s first hydropower from a glacial lake

<figure><img width="1050" height="655" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110914110/636ba4659c7e80680e073666jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Prime Minister K P Oli launching the sale of shares for the Trisuli B hydroelectric project in March 2019, the first in the government’s Nepal’s Water, Nepalis’ Investment initiative. Energy Minister Barshaman Pun is on the right. Photo: PMO</figcaption></figure>Nepal’s hydropower sector, already stymied <a href="https://www.google.com/url?client=internal-element-cse&amp;cx=011870630917993763279:opm7uqsat-4&amp;q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-hydroelectricity-sector-gets-covid-19-shock/&amp;sa=U&amp;ved=2ahUKEwjFu_bFg__qAhUF_XMBHfAqAvUQFjAEegQIAxAC&amp;usg=AOvVaw0B_tYwmRm1tHBUVUnLifjc" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.google.com/url?client%3Dinternal-element-cse%26cx%3D011870630917993763279:opm7uqsat-4%26q%3Dhttps://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-hydroelectricity-sector-gets-covid-19-shock/%26sa%3DU%26ved%3D2ahUKEwjFu_bFg__qAhUF_XMBHfAqAvUQFjAEegQIAxAC%26usg%3DAOvVaw0B_tYwmRm1tHBUVUnLifjc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1596609376589000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEMkbfjV65U5ipi9fjYZ4myWul1Bg">by decades of construction delays </a>and budget constraints, is seeing its flagship Nepal’s Water, Nepalis’ Investment initiative pushed back further due to this year’s destructive monsoon rains and the economic fallout of the COVID-19 crisis.The initiative was part of the government’s ambitious masterplan to generate 15,000MW in ten years from 21 hydroelectric projects, and raise the income of Nepali shareholders in the process.“Nepal will have an energy surplus and see its economy grow, while the projects will bring the public quick rewards and allow them to prosper as well,” said the Energy Minister while launching the initiative in March last year.  <figure><img width="1500" height="839" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110914110/636ba4689c7e80680e073667jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Some of the proposed projects under the Nepal’s Water, Nepalis’ Investment which will offer shares to the public to invest in: 1st row, left-right: Ghunsa Khola (72MW), Simbuwa Khola (70MW), Tamakosi-5 (96MW) Upper Trisuli 3-B (27MW). 2nd Row: Kimathangka Arun (482MW), Upper Arun (725MW), Ikhuwa (30MW), Arun 4 (372MW) 3rd row: Budi Gandaki Gwar Khola (60MW), Budi Gandaki Prok 1 (100MW), Budi Gandaki Prok 2 (240MW) Budi Gandaki A (75MW)</figcaption></figure>It was a bold target and a challenging task to sell shares to the public, but it was an attempt to make up for lost time on power projects delayed by the 2015 earthquake and the Indian Blockade. However, no one could have predicted that the country would face an even more serious crisis this year with the global pandemic.While landslides and flash floods this monsoon as well as the COVID-19 lockdown have taken a year off construction schedules, the global economic downturn is also expected to reduce the public's ability to invest in shares and attract foreign joint ventures in the hydropower projects. Even so, CEO Chhabiraj Pokharel of the Hydropower Investment and Development Company Limited (HIDCL) says the plan is to start construction on all 21 projects in the next four years so as to meet the intrim target of generating 3,500MW in five years.Despite his optimism, only one of the projects, the Upper Trisuli-3 (60MW), which went into operation in November, has been commissioned in the past year-and-half since the initiative was launched amidst much fanfare by Prime Minister Oli.The 111MW Rasuwagadi and 57MW Upper Sanjen are nearing completion, and have released shares to employees. Another project is halfway, but the other 14 have not gotten off the ground.  <figure><img width="1631" height="550" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110914110/636ba46b9c7e80680e073668jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Rasuwagadhi Project site (111MW) on the Trisuli River, where construction has begun. </figcaption></figure>Even though many of these projects were delayed due to existing bureaucratic and technical hurdles, the government is blaming the COVID-19 crisis. Says Madhu Prasad Bhetuwal, convenor of the Nepal’s Water, Nepalis’ Investment initiative: “All the projects had been pushed back by six months already due to the COVID-19 crisis, and another six months because of the rainy season.”Nevertheless, the government’s plan is to begin construction on Upper Arun (725MW), Kimathangka Arun (482MW), Phukot Karnali (492MW), Tamakosi-5 (96MW), Chainpur Seti (201MW), and Jagadulla (157MW) as soon as the monsoon is over. Of these, Tamakosi-5 is putting shares up for sale to the public, now that its engineering and design work is complete. The modalities for the Rs33 billion Bheri-Babai Diversion Multipurpose Program are also complete. This project will irrigate 51,000ha in the eastern Tarai, while also generating 48.6MW of electricity. Five percent of the shares of this project will be open to local people, Karnali provincial government will have 20%, the project itself will have 26%, and the central government will have majority shares of 49%.  <figure><img width="1500" height="834" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110914110/636ba46e9c7e80680e073669jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Bheri-Babai tunnel that will irrigate 51,000ha in the western Tarai, and generate 48MW of electricity.</figcaption></figure>The government’s plan is that 51% of the Nepal’s Water, Nepalis’ Investment initiative will be funded by the government, while 49% will have the public’s investment. Of this, 70% will be loan financed, while 30% will be paid for by investment in equities. Of that 30%, a little more than half will be bought up by the government while 49% will be public.Government agencies are also being directed to allocate funds for the initiative. The Employees’ Provident Fund, Citizens Investment Fund, HIDCL, Nepal Telecom, National Insurance Institute, Nepal Police, Nepal Army and the Armed Police Force have all been directed to invest Rs1-6 billion per year in the initiative. The total cost of the 21 projects is estimated to exceed Rs700 billion -- which is equal to more than half the annual national budget of Nepal. Banks and financial institutions have a 10% ceiling on hydropower investment in their total portfolio, and this is enough to only fund 50MW production every year. This means the most serious obstacle to the initiative will now be the funding crunch. This has been exacerbated by the fall in government revenue due to the pandemic, as seen in this<a href="https://www.google.com/url?client=internal-element-cse&amp;cx=011870630917993763279:opm7uqsat-4&amp;q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-unveils-covid-19-budget/&amp;sa=U&amp;ved=2ahUKEwjFu_bFg__qAhUF_XMBHfAqAvUQFjAFegQIARAC&amp;usg=AOvVaw0IyIrqaRrWGvlcvL74WQUS" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.google.com/url?client%3Dinternal-element-cse%26cx%3D011870630917993763279:opm7uqsat-4%26q%3Dhttps://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-unveils-covid-19-budget/%26sa%3DU%26ved%3D2ahUKEwjFu_bFg__qAhUF_XMBHfAqAvUQFjAFegQIARAC%26usg%3DAOvVaw0IyIrqaRrWGvlcvL74WQUS&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1596609376589000&amp;usg=AFQjCNF97_uq5VhqvzbTa4EA79zdsQsuyQ"> fiscal year’s budget.</a> The government could rely on foreign loans and multilateral creditors, but they are also affected by the global recession.Normal hydropower regulations only allow for shares to be released once construction is half-complete. Under the provisions of the initiative, shares and IPOs (Initial Public Offerings) can be released once 10% of project funding is used.  <figure><img width="600" height="677" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110914110/636ba4759c7e80680e07366ajpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Construction site of the Upper Trisuli 3B (37MW), one of the projects delayed by the COVID-19 lockdown.</figcaption></figure>Convenor Bhetuwal says construction of the 21 hydropower projects were deliberately staggered, keeping in mind the rise in nationwide energy demand. He adds: “Generating 3,500MW at once will lead to a glut in the market, may overwhelm consumers and waste energy, that is why projects are going into production in a phase-wise manner.” This is a legitimate concern, because national demand for electricity has dropped during he lockdown, prompting Nepal Electricity Authority Director Kul Man Ghising to call out the government on its U-turn on encouraging demand for electricity consumption, <a href="https://www.google.com/url?client=internal-element-cse&amp;cx=011870630917993763279:opm7uqsat-4&amp;q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-takes-3-steps-back-on-e-cars/&amp;sa=U&amp;ved=2ahUKEwjm3tT5g__qAhWd8HMBHRiHBzkQFjAAegQIBRAC&amp;usg=AOvVaw1WVWH_378BaBmM7FzPie46" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.google.com/url?client%3Dinternal-element-cse%26cx%3D011870630917993763279:opm7uqsat-4%26q%3Dhttps://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-takes-3-steps-back-on-e-cars/%26sa%3DU%26ved%3D2ahUKEwjm3tT5g__qAhWd8HMBHRiHBzkQFjAAegQIBRAC%26usg%3DAOvVaw1WVWH_378BaBmM7FzPie46&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1596609376589000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHFj7LD-yfyCCJ0ZeVWqLFX6NH2zw">including a hike on e-vehicle taxes. </a>

Generating electricity (and cash) for Nepalis

<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://unfccc.int/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change</a> was agreed in 1992 to deal with the increasing atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. In 1992, carbon dioxide concentrations had reached 356 parts per million (ppm) compared to 286 ppm in the 1850s. Today, with 411 ppm of CO2, the world faces a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/nepals-silent-emergency-springs-going-dry/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">climate emergency</a>. Despite advances in renewable energy technology, fossil fuel use has continued to rise and emissions are still growing. Meeting the Paris Agreement’s goals, agreed to in 2015, appears increasingly hard.Higher heat in the atmosphere due to increasing concentration of CO2 has made the global hydrological cycle erratic, including over the Himalaya region. Seasonal rainfall patterns are significantly different than in the past. Local farmers already speak of having to adjust to rainfall regimes that differ completely from their past experiences. And this is only part of the story complicating water management.Over the last 150 years, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/dam-it-its-all-about-the-water/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reservoirs, dams and barrages that divert water</a> to farms, cities and industries have significantly altered the natural hydrological cycle. High-capacity pumps also increasingly bring water from very deep aquifers to the surface. Untreated human waste from cities and effluent from industries are dumped into rivers and water bodies. Embankments already constrain the natural flow in many rural areas.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108181144/636a964f9c7e80680e05dc5ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2250" height="937"/><figcaption>Photo: Alton C Byers</figcaption></figure>But <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/act-globally-think-locally/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">flooding is no longer a rural phenomenon. </a>Haphazard urbanisation blocks streams and rivers. Floods caused by short duration, intense rainfall inundate new areas because existing drainage paths cannot safely discharge them. With 70% of South Asians expected to live in urban areas by 2050, urban flood risks will increase manifold.Climate change-induced impacts exacerbate these development challenges and create a bleak scenario for the future of water. The Himalayan ice and glacier system is a case in point. Examination of satellite images suggests that between 2000 and 2016, eight billion tonnes of ice storage was lost, twice the amount lost between 1975 and 2000.Snowmelt sustains the low flows of the Kosi, Gandaki, Karnali and Mahakali rivers, all of which feed the Ganga. Changes in snowmelt dynamics and the hydrology of the Himalayan system will not only affect downstream water users but also significantly stress existing water-sharing treaties between Nepal and India.Read Also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/making-nepal-powerful/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Making Nepal Powerful</a>, Editorial<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/decentralising-hydropower/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Decentralising (hydro)power,</a>Gyanendra Lal Pradhan<a style="letter-spacing: 0.15px; background-color: #ffffff;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/an-energy-windfall-for-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">An energy windfall for Nepal?,</a> Kushal GurungEach of these four rivers has a barrage at the Nepal-India border, and Nepal and India have signed river-water treaties that specify the water allocation regime for all of them, except the Karnali. Nonetheless, conflicts between Nepal and India still exist, and could escalate. In Bihar, complaints about the diversion of Ganga waters by upstream barrages are rife. The changes in low flows will extend to the treaty between India and Bangladesh on sharing of the Ganga’s waters.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108181148/636a96529c7e80680e05dc5fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="480">Changes in rainfall patterns due to climate change over the Nepali midhills and Tarai will also change the hydrology of Nepal’s rain-fed rivers. Drying midhill springs and declines in groundwater tables across the Tarai and valleys due to excessive extraction beyond natural recharge rates will stress the provision of basic water services and make their management more difficult. Though it is unlikely that all Nepali rivers will run dry immediately, seasonal scarcity due to changes in the hydrological regime will significantly increase.The prevailing water paradigm, which focuses on irrigation, hydropower and drinking water in separate silos, prevents the successful management of these developmental and climate-related challenges. The current response to flood management, for example, is not only siloed but also episodic. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-tarai-learns-from-past-floods/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Once the monsoon departs in September, we forget about floods</a>. We accord little priority to consideration of the bio-diversity in rivers or to water’s central role in our cultures.Read Also:C<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/climate-risk-to-hydropower-investment/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">limate risk to hydropower investment,</a> Ajaya Dixit<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/reservoirs-of-suspicion/hydropower-geopolitics%20,3991" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reservoirs of suspicion</a>, Om Astha RaiHydropower development and inter-basin water transfer projects dominate the Nepali state’s imagination while ordinary people worry about when the next supply of water will be delivered. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dams-and-dreams-a-journey-down-the-karnali/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The beds and banks of rivers are unscrupulously mined</a> to meet construction industry needs by a nexus of real estate promoters, truck cartels, politicians and bureaucrats.These complex challenges around water will require structural changes and societal level solutions very different from business-as-usual practices. For management of water we need a new social charter that adheres to the following principles as sacrosanct:<ul><li>Water has multiple meanings, uses and users</li> <li>Rivers must have enough clean water in them to sustain biodiversity</li> <li>Rivers need unconstrained space to safely discharge flood water, including in urban areas</li> <li>Waste cycles and hydrological cycles must be different</li> <li>Flowing water has holistic value and is not a waste.</li></ul>Without upholding these principles in all economic and social development activities, it is unlikely that water problems will improve with time. A commitment to their implementation will only be the starting point for balancing competing needs of multiple users of freshwater, conserving its quality and quantity and adapting to the impacts of climate change. When water is scarce, successful adaptation to the climate emergency will be only a mere aspiration. Its realisation will be close to impossible.<article><section data-id="b119978" data-element_type="section">Ajaya Dixit is Executive Director of Kathmandu based ISET-Nepal.        His monthly column Climate for Change in Nepali Times deals with the impact of global warming in Nepal.</section></article>

The Water Emergency

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110811118/636a2a939c7e80680e045924jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="316"/><figcaption>Photo: ALTON BYERS</figcaption></figure>In a normal winter, northern India and Nepal get 3-4 westerly disturbances. This year there were 12 frontal systems dumping snow and rain across the country.Kathmandu Valley and surrounding mountains had snowfall <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-on-the-heat/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">twice within a month</a> and received 90mm of rain on the night of 26 February alone -- the heaviest ever recorded, and almost five times higher than the monthly average. Rains in other parts of the country were three times higher than the winter average. Earlier lighter snowfalls in Kathmandu were in 1946 and 2007.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/how-nepal-can-invest-in-improving-the-investment-climate/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">How Nepal can invest in improving the investment climate</a>, Anil Chitrakar<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/nepal-inc/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal, Inc.</a>, Suman Joshi<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110811118/636a2a959c7e80680e045925png.png" alt="" width="733" height="732">Was this precipitation a natural anomaly, or was it spawned by changes in the global climate? Attributing one unusual weather event to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/on-thin-ice-in-the-khumbu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">climate change is challenging in countries like Nepal</a> which still have significant data gaps and lack climate modeling expertise.However, if this is a new trend, it is a cause for serious concern. Warming caused by a greater concentration of atmospheric carbon is already changing the jet stream and weather patterns that influence climate in different ways, creating a new weather normal.Madan Lal Shrestha is Nepal’s leading climate scientist and says the trend is worrying: “The westerly systems seem to be shifting southward and bringing these anomalies.”The scenario for new snow dynamics projected by Kathmandu-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) in its <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2019 assessment</a> and the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) SR 1.5 are equally disturbing. The ICIMOD study suggests that even if global warming is limited to 1.5°C by the end of the century, the Himalayan region will warm by around 1.8°C.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-damage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate damage</a>, Editorial Under a 1.5°C scenario, the study says glacier volumes in the Himalaya will decline by 36% by 2100 and under business as usual emissions, by a whopping 64%. The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-climax/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IPCC</a> SR 1.5 suggests temperature rise be limited to within 1.5oC by 2030, to avoid a disastrous climate future. But this looks unlikely and the above scenario may become a reality earlier than projected. These change dynamics could already be <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/nepals-silent-emergency-springs-going-dry/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">depleting base flow</a> of many of our snow- and rain-fed rivers. Existing and planned hydropower plants in both river types face higher risks.Nepal has a total installed hydropower capacity of about 1,000MW and in 2018 the plants supplied 4,475GWh of hydroelectricity into the Integrated Nepal Power System. New plants under construction will add 3,370MW, and new planned projects will generate an additional 4,562W. These do not include smaller community plants, export projects like Arun II, or storage projects like Budi Gandaki and West Seti.When these are completed, Nepal will have 300 power plants with an installed capacity of 8,932MW. If we assume that each 1MW needs $200,000 worth of investment, these projects will be valued at $18 billion, and could produce about 40,000 GWh of electricity provided the hydrology of rivers, particularly their base flow, does not change.Already, hydropower plants in fragile basins like the Bhote Kosi face floods, landslides like the one in Jure in 2014, the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/kundadixit/2015/05/27/a-month-that-felt-like-a-year/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">earthquakes four years ago</a>, and glacial lake outbursts. As the snow and glaciers melt, energy stored in expanding glacial lakes (like this one on the <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/high-water" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Barun Glacier</a>, above) could theoretically be harnessed in the future, but these will be technologically complex, the upfront cost prohibitive, and impose high risks to fragile mountain ecosystems.Today, while 86% of Nepalis have access to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-cost-of-light/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">electricity</a>, its use in productive sectors of the economy and in creating new jobs is limited. The bulk of the country’s cooking energy still comes from biomass, and the cost of petroleum imports show no signs of slowing.In addition, regulatory oversight is inadequate, and so is compliance to environmental and social safeguards in the development and operation of hydropower plants. Hydropower design use historical rainfall and river flow data, but climate change makes them unreliable to calculate energy performance of power plants. Agencies in Nepal involved in hydropower development <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dams-and-dreams-a-journey-down-the-karnali/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">must assess climate change risks</a>, identify mitigation measures and ensure that projects deliver energy they are designed for.Data sets generated by existing plants in Nepal’s snow-fed and rain-fed rivers can alert us to changes in flow, and in assessing related risks to their energy performance. Generation-mix for a cleaner energy future can offset potential risks of total reliance on water-based energy system vulnerable to climate change. Such a strategy must minimise import of petroleum products by using indigenous hydro and other clean sources, address persistent energy poverty, elevate use of electricity in the economy.In 2006, Economist Nicholas Stern’s <a href="http://mudancasclimaticas.cptec.inpe.br/~rmclima/pdfs/destaques/sternreview_report_complete.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Report on the Economics of Climate Change</a> had warned that the cost of inaction would be far greater for future generations than the costs of action taken today. A decade later he said, “I should have been much stronger in what I said in the report about the costs of inaction. I underplayed the dangers.”Crossing the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/decarbonise-now/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">1.50 C threshold</a> would take us to the danger zone. To remain within that limit, we need to improve governance and institutional accountability with in-built systemic checks and balances to ensure that new climate risks are accounted for and minimised.Ajaya Dixit is Executive Director of Kathmandu based ISET-Nepal. His monthly column Climate for Change in Nepali Times deals with the impact of global warming in Nepal.

Climate risk to hydropower investment

The newly-formed Himalayan Art Council is set to launch Nepal’s National Art Protection Platform that seeks to preserve <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/the-history-of-heritage">Nepal’s unique cultural heritage </a>using<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/artificial-censorship"> AI-powered tools</a>. The Council seeks to safeguard <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/nepali-art-going-places">Nepali art works</a> from neglect, theft and counterfeiting as well as preserve existing artwork and celebrate living masters by giving them a cultural space to continue the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/sacred-survival">sacred art traditions</a>. "We are introducing a new digital platform designed to preserve, verify and elevate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-new-generation-of-alternative-artists">Nepal’s art for generations to come,</a>” says a statement from the Council, adding that the digital platform will use AI told for authentication and blockchain to keep track of works of art. Artists can now be protected by <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/ayo-ai?fbclid=IwAR1uwmTVq4gUB70ljfRezjzukD9ArWXPuMnUikopeQ8PoiZMjicToPSwhKE&amp;=1">AI tools</a> that detect forgeries, identify their work even when unsigned, and ensure they receive proper recognition and credit. The archives will be searchable with translated inscription and interactive guides. Says curator Meena Lama: “AI and blockchains are tools that give us the power to detect fakes and identify unsigned paintings and track every piece. With these tools we can restore trust, secure authorship and give artists the dignity they deserve.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250514170544_2ab58f6313c0458f75114a692b0016bd9efb3b59d5f8f07f0da72e1e37b82f53.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20250514170544_2ab58f6313c0458f75114a692b0016bd9efb3b59d5f8f07f0da72e1e37b82f53" data-rendition-name="original" width="1300" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Artwork at the Traditional Art Exhibition at Patan Museum."> <figcaption>Artwork at the Traditional Art Exhibition at Patan Museum.</figcaption> </figure>  The Council is also holding an exhibition of Nepali cultural masterpieces with 50 historical <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/Buzz-the-art,671">thangka and paubha </a>by past masters and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/between-the-sacred-and-everyday">contemporary works by current artists</a>. This curated collection is a living tribute to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">Himalayan culture</a> with economic depictions of deities, mandala and sacred narratives. The exhibition at <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/a-portal-into-patan-s-past-and-present">Patan Museum</a> also provides an opportunity to meet painters and custodians of art and culture. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/golden-deities">Golden deities</a>, Sewa Bhattarai ‘The exhibition is only the first step in a long journey to ensure that Nepali art is no just seen but fully understood, <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Narratives-of-Faith-and-Memory-Remembering-the-Lost-Sculptures-of-Kathmandu-exhibition,987">protected and remembered</a>,’ the Council says. Artist Kailash K Shrestha of Artudio has spent decades promoting thankha and paubha traditions because of their beauty and devotional meaning. But he also says artists are underpaid, exploited and ignored. He adds, “AI and blockchain are not just buzzwords, they are powerful tools that can protect Nepal’s artists from fraud, verify authenticity and build a permanent record of provenance.” Traditional Art Exhibition Till 17 May Patan Museum

Digital protection for Nepal’s art

India and Pakistan are twins separated at birth. Tensions between them have been at a hair trigger ever since independence and has erupted into full scale conflict at least four times in the past 80 years.
The 22 April terrorist attack in Kashmir that killed 25 Indian tourists and a Nepali citizen, threatens to escalate tension between the two nuclear-armed nations. India has squarely blamed Pakistan for the attacks, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has given his military “operational freedom” to respond. Pakistan has said it has credible intelligence of an Indian military strike and its officials have promised a “full spectrum” response — a code for a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/thinking-the-thinkable">nuclear retaliation</a>.
For Nepal, the killing of its national in the Pahalgam attack comes as another stark reminder that in conflicts from Afghanistan to Iraq, from <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/how-to-agree-an-armistice-in-ukraine">Ukraine</a> to Israel, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/10-nepalis-from-one-town-fighting-in-ukraine">Nepalis are getting caught in the crossfire</a>. The last time full-scale fighting broke out between <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/peacemongers-at-india-pakistan-border">India and Pakistan</a> on Kargil in 1999, at least 22<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/india-s-trial-by-fire-for-soldiers-from-nepal?%27%5C%22="> Nepalis fighting for the Indian Army</a> were killed in action.
Three of Nepal’s immediate neighbours (China, India, Pakistan) have nuclear weapons, and they do not have good relations. With China supplying weapons, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/war-and-warming">missile technology</a> and other support to Pakistan, this triangular friction could set off a regional conflagration.&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00573-0" target="_blank">Research at Rutgers University</a> has calculated that even a week-long tactical nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan would throw up so much smoke and debris into the atmosphere that it would block out the sun for years, and lead to a collapse of the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/grow-nourish-sustain-together-world-food-day">global food system</a>. This does not take into account the radioactive fallout that prevailing winds would blow up to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lives-on-the-line-in-the-himalaya">the Himalaya</a>, contaminating glaciers that are the sources of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/saving-what-is-left-of-himalayan-rivers">Asia’s main rivers</a>.
The impact of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/climate-breakdown-linked-to-thame-flood">climate breakdown </a>on High Asia was already ringing alarm bells about its <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/himalayan-icecap-melting-faster-than-thought">shrinking ice cap</a> reducing the dry season flow of water downstream. Water was going to be the next strategic commodity, geopolitical experts warned, and the next wars in Asia would be over water.
That water war is already happening. India retaliated to the Kashmir attack by suspending the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/24/world/asia/india-pakistan-indus-waters-treaty.html" target="_blank">Indus Waters Treaty</a> of 1960 mediated by the World Bank that has withstood at least three wars between India and Pakistan. The treaty gives India control over the three eastern tributaries of the Indus (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beas_River" target="_blank">Beas</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ravi_River" target="_blank">Ravi</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sutlej" target="_blank">Sutlej</a>), while Pakistan got water from the Indus and two of its western tributaries (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indus_River" target="_blank">Indus</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chenab_River" target="_blank">Chenab</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jhelum_River" target="_blank">Jhelum</a>.
Pakistan was assured of 70% of the annual flow, and India could use a reasonable amount of water for<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=15231"> irrigation and hydropower</a>. &nbsp;Within days of its threat, India stopped water flowing down to Pakistan from the Chenab river and is reportedly preparing to do the same on the Jhelum.
The sabre-rattling has reached a crescendo. Besides threats and counter-threats there are also symbolic drills, with the Indian Air Force practicing landing on an expressway in Uttar Pradesh by its Rafale, Su-30 and Jaguar fighter jets to demonstrate ‘operational readiness’. In response Pakistan test-fired its Abdali ballistic missile that can carry a nuclear warhead and has a range of 450km.&nbsp;
The danger is that with ultra-nationalist rhetoric and the beating the war drums by both sides, India’s government and Pakistan’s military may have to ‘do something’ to appease domestic public opinion. But any tactical strike, an artillery exchange, or territorial incursion could quickly escalate out of control.
Expecting an Indian retaliation for the Pahalgam killings, Pakistan is using<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/interfaith-collaboration-for-nuclear-disarmament"> nuclear deterrence </a>and warning of “catastrophic consequences”. The two neighbours came close to a nuclear exchange in 2019 after an attack on the Indian military in Kashmir, and prompt international intervention led by the United States cooled tensions.&nbsp;
This time, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/trump-shock-wave-hits-nepal">Trump administration</a> is too distracted and not as engaged. Pakistan has denied it was responsible for the terrorist attack and called on Washington to stop a possible Indian retaliation. India and Pakistan have stopped overflights by each other’s airlines, and some international carriers have even stopped flying over Pakistan fearing an air war.
Washington, Beijing, the UN and the EU have all urged restraint. Iran, which has good relations with both India and Pakistan has sent its foreign minister to urge both countries not to go into a tit-for-tat war. Iran has its own nuclear flashpoint to worry about with tensions in Israel, &nbsp;Yemen and Syria.
India and Pakistan both share similar problems of joblessness, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/why-nepal-s-poverty-rate-is-stuck">poverty </a>and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/climate-change-new-threat-to-nepal-s-rhinos">environmental threats</a>. Neither side needs the threat of a senseless war, and we in the neighbourhood do not need it either.&nbsp;
Kunda Dixit
This Editorial is brought to you by <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/" target="_blank">Nepali Times</a>, in collaboration with <a href="https://inpsjapan.com/en/" target="_blank">INPS Japan</a> and <a href="https://sgi-peace.org/" target="_blank">Soka Gakkai International</a>, in consultative status with UN ECOSOC.

Nukes in the neighbourhood

Most Nepalis thought they had seen the last of it after <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/11-56-25-april-2015-wkc9q2an">the 25 April 7.8 magnitude </a>earthquake ten years ago. But the Himalaya had more surprises in store. On 12 May, another 7.3 magnitude tremor that some said was an aftershock, but was strong enough to itself be a major earthquake, struck Dolakha.&nbsp; Not many people had heard of Singati till then — a cluster of houses by the Tama Kosi River along a narrow gorge that is the roadhead to Rolwaling Valley.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_57b6e316656851f71eca56ca6f98d9bbcc820c1a00d62af3c990725b4361244d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250508110520_57b6e316656851f71eca56ca6f98d9bbcc820c1a00d62af3c990725b4361244d" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1500" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_016534fb2b6a79957402281cda768efb83a146786377e39e11df3e251d37159e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20250508110520_016534fb2b6a79957402281cda768efb83a146786377e39e11df3e251d37159e" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>  It was here that dozens were killed on 25 April in the first earthquake. Hundreds of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Singati-rising-from-rubble-rebuilding,3703">Singati survivors</a> had lined up for food and relief supplies in the morning of 12 May when the second earthquake triggered a rock slide that buried a nearby camp. At least 50 people were killed. &nbsp; Three hours later, a US Marine Corps UH-1Y Venom helicopter landed in a nearby cornfield to pick up the wounded, and flew off. The aircraft lost contact with air traffic control in Kathmandu and its wreckage was located high on Kalinchok four days later. Six American servicemen, two Nepal Army soldiers, and five wounded civilians from Singati were killed. Today, Singati bears little physical scar of the multiple tragedies that struck the town ten years ago. Most <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/bungamati-builds-back">houses have been rebuilt</a> as urban-style concrete structures, and Singati has become an economic hub on the road leading up to several hydropower plants and a<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/off-the-beaten-trek-in-nepal"> popular trekking destination</a>.&nbsp; The town looks less like a village and more like a suburb of the Dolakha district headquarter of Charikot, 47km away.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_196f341d1df1403ba133e5dfeb837eec20d7cbcb4c8c56b17cc5598810de5df2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20250508110520_196f341d1df1403ba133e5dfeb837eec20d7cbcb4c8c56b17cc5598810de5df2" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110524_ae66c4a92430f67db51b5e11e017059eedfbac4cb18c8e073f2a50cca1fe904e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20250508110524_ae66c4a92430f67db51b5e11e017059eedfbac4cb18c8e073f2a50cca1fe904e" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>  “The demand for construction material, cement, iron rods and bricks peaked after the earthquakes,” says Suresh Khadka, who owns a hardware business here and now supplies material to the 456MW Upper Tama Kosi hydropower project that is undergoing repairs after it was damaged by a landslide last year. The demand for cement boomed since most residents believe, not necessarily correctly, that <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/in-a-disastrous-state">cement houses are safer</a>. Although Khadka did well selling construction material after the earthquake, he worries that most new structures do not follow seismic-resistant building codes.&nbsp; The construction boom financed by bank loans has in turn forced many from Singati to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/making-overseas-migration-better">migrate overseas for work</a> so they can service their debt.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110524_50caa4530bd5ff9120cf7ab70a62173846d337ef448ff8bac339f3faa375a9e2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250508110524_50caa4530bd5ff9120cf7ab70a62173846d337ef448ff8bac339f3faa375a9e2" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> <figcaption>Suresh Khadka</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_ef8b7d3993fc3b5df852bbf952feb3fbabc96d6883b0d5eb74ee5c60f4123b83.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="20250508110520_ef8b7d3993fc3b5df852bbf952feb3fbabc96d6883b0d5eb74ee5c60f4123b83" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> <figcaption>Phu Doma Sherpa (right)</figcaption> </figure>  “My family had no choice but to borrow money to rebuild our home since the government compensation was not enough, and ten years later we are still paying off the loan,” says Phu Doma Sherpa, 60. Because of the shortage of qualified masons and proper seismic engineering, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/structural-problems">many of the buildings are of questionable building standards </a>and the traditional architecture has been abandoned, admits Kul Bahadur Budathoki, deputy chair of the municipality. “But these buildings were more expensive than what the government grants could cover, many people here are heavily in debt and the men have <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/every-day-is-closer-to-pay-day">migrated to the Gulf to pay their loans</a>,” Budathoki says.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_32f89e97b7e757fc9286c0bbb671f48ea8d4468e9634fa646d7247c650ad8480.jpg" data-media-id="editor_14" data-image-id="20250508110520_32f89e97b7e757fc9286c0bbb671f48ea8d4468e9634fa646d7247c650ad8480" data-rendition-name="original" width="1501" height="1079" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> <figcaption>Kul Bahadur Budathoki</figcaption> </figure>  Singati is in a multi-hazard zone. The <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Singati,3091">12 May 2015 earthquake </a>could have led to the collapse of Nepal’s largest glacial lake, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/stairway-to-heaven">Tso Rolpa</a>, upstream. Due to global warming, the glacier has turned into an expanding lake 3.5km long, and its collapse would have unleashed a catastrophic Himalayan tsunami down the Tama Kosi Valley, with Singati directly in its path. Singati has literally risen from the ashes of 2015, with its residents beginning to recover from the trauma and financial toll. But it is not out of danger as <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/climate-breakdown-linked-to-thame-flood">climate breakdown </a>magnifies the risk from future earthquakes.

Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village

Starting 17 September Turkish Airlines will fly daily to Seville, one of Spain’s major tourist draws. This is Turkish’s sixth destination in Spain after Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Malaga, and Bilbao. Seville is in the Andalusia region on Spain’s south coast with a rich Moor history. There are approximately 30,000 Nepalis living in Spain.&nbsp;

hydropower-projects