Gebru Jember Endalew has been involved in UN negotiations on climate change since 2008 as a core member of the Ethiopian negotiating team. Last year, he stepped down as Chair of the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) Group on Climate Change, of which Nepal is a member and Bhutan is the new Chair.Currently, Endalew is an adviser at the Korea-based <a href="http://gggi.org/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Global Green Growth Institute</a>. Endalew was in Kathmandu this week for consultations on resilience and adaptation for Asia-Pacific members of the LDC group. He spoke to Nepali Times on how least-developed countries like Nepal can cope with <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-climax/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">climate change</a>.Read also:'<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=21122&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate damage</a>', Editorial<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Terrifying assessment of a Himalayan Melting</a>, Kunda Dixit'<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=21132&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Turning on the heat</a>', Ajaya DixitSimilarities between Nepal and EthiopiNepal and Ethiopia have a lot in common. We are LDCs, we are land-locked, face severe impacts of global climate change despite not being major greenhouse gas emitters. And we are both mountainous countries. Mountain ecosystems are <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/guest-editorial/mountainous-change,887" target="_blank" rel="noopener">highly fragile in terms of climate change impacts</a>, as proven by the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">study released this week</a> by ICIMOD Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment and the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/decarbonise-now/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IPCC 1.5 Degree World report</a>.We know that a 1.5 degree world is achievable, but even an increase of one degree in global average temperature has major consequences ranging from forest fires, extreme weather events to changing monsoon patterns. Yet some of the countries were still in denial at the Climate Summit in Poland. But we LDCs have been consistent in terms of our reflections about the 1.5 degree report and we believe it will be taken up at the UN Secretary General’s meeting in September in New York.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101144/636a25cb9c7e80680e0439e0jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="800" height="1067"/><figcaption>Photo: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption></figure>Climate justiceWhile we need to continue to push big emitters for more pledges for adaptation, we cannot completely depend on compensation to address the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/on-thin-ice-in-the-khumbu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">impact of climate change</a> on our people. Trillions were promised in Poland but it will take years to materialise. And now that the number of big emitters have increased, and include many of our own countries, reimbursement alone will not take us anywhere in terms of investments required.If we stick to <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=9980#.XFvcbVUzaUl" target="_blank" rel="noopener">historical responsibility for carbon emissions</a>, we will not arrive at a solution. If we wait for developed countries to pledge resources, we will not be able to adapt to the urgent impacts that are already being felt. So government in countries like Nepal and Ethiopia need to look for domestic financial resources and engage the private sector in solutions to generate revenue. We need to move out of the victim narrative to proactive leadership to deal with it.In fact, Nepal can be a leader in terms of developing innovative mitigation actions, even if it may have a much <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/from-a-fossil-past-to-an-electric-future/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">smaller carbon footprint</a> compared to other countries. Better ecosystem and resource management here can reduce the risks of flooding in lower catchment areas of India and Bangladesh.And to be honest, past actions cannot be blamed when people were just trying to improve their lives. Post-industrial emissions were not deliberate. The biggest blunder of all would be for our leaders to repeat the same mistakes with the knowledge they have today about the impact of greenhouse gases.Turning the clock backCountries like the US and Brazil are <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/bypassing-trump-on-climate-action/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">regressing on prior commitments</a> when it comes to climate change action. But I’m a bit of an optimist myself. Despite a somewhat bleak scenario at the leadership level, what is happening on the ground is encouraging. We see consecutive peaks in investment on renewable energy around the world including in the US, and these newer cleaner technologies are cheaper and more easily accessible to the people.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/bypassing-trump-on-climate-action/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bypassing Trump on climate change</a>, Kunda DixitMitigation or adaptation?Mitigation, adaptation and development have to go together. There is no point in making distinction. Mitigation measures to reduce fossil fuel dependence eventually contributes to development and resilience. For example: electricity generated from hydropower improves the living standard of the people while also reducing greenhouse gases.Initially there was a misconception that mitigation was not for the developing countries. We know now that everyone has to be involved in the global mitigation process, not just to save the planet but also to save our economies.All of this requires good leadership. Unless there is a political guidance, whatever resources we have might be either least used or abused. Good governance is a key to better planning and implementation to cope with climate impact.

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From playing victim to proactive leadership on climate

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101144/636a25cd9c7e80680e0439e1jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="1050"/><figcaption>Photo: GEORGE MALLORY</figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101148/636a25d09c7e80680e0439e2jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="900"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Unprecedented in recorded history, there was a 100 degree C difference in temperature between the northern and southern hemispheres last week. While parts of Australia baked in record 50oC heat, in North America hell froze over with the mercury plunging to -50oC.Somewhere in between in Nepal, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/snowbound-rara/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">heavy winter snow blanketed the mountains</a> last week after a break of almost 12 years. The fact that such snowfall was seen as ‘abnormal’, indicated just how far from the ‘normal’ we have deviated.The return of winter snow in Nepal and the simultaneous extreme hot and cold in the antipodes actually proves the impact on weather patterns brought by <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-climax/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">climate change</a>. Most climate models agree that the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/decarbonise-now/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rise in global average temperature</a> due to the continued emission of carbon dioxide will result in higher rates of temperature rise over land, and particularly in the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">higher Himalayan regions</a>. The snowline has been migrating upward with rainfall replacing snow, and lowered seasonal snow and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/climate-for-change/the-great-himalayan-thaw/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ice storage</a> have started limiting melt flow in rivers.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Terrifying assessment of a Himalayan melting</a>, Kunda Dixit'<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=21122&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate damage</a>', Editorial As rivers originating in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/nepals-silent-emergency-springs-going-dry/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the Himalaya start going dry in the summer season</a>, there is serious concern about rising heat. In a few weeks, temperatures across northern South Asia <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2017/07/19/asia-heating-up/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">will start going up</a>. Day-time summer temperature will reach 40oC+ in many places. Nights will not cool down enough, and humidity will also increase. At higher humidity, the human body cannot release heat through sweat evaporation fast enough to cool itself. Most people cannot remain unprotected in the open for more than 6 hours at temperatures above  370C.A 2014 study of interactions of temperature and humidity in the Indus and Ganga plains by the US-based National Center of Atmospheric Research, and ISET-International found that by 2050, most of June, July and August days and nights will hover above the 370C threshold. A later study by MIT researchers warned of deadly heat waves in the Indo-Gangetic plains, meaning the numbers dying across India, Pakistan and Nepal Tarai in summer will shoot up.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-climax/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate climax</a>, Editorial<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/decarbonise-now/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Decarbonise now</a>, Ajaya Dixit<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/on-thin-ice-in-the-khumbu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">On thin ice in the Khumbu</a>, Kunda DixitThe <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/naturally-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rapid degradation of natural ecosystems</a> within and around many of our cities have removed heat sinks. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/poisoning-the-air-we-breathe/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Vehicular emissions</a>, air conditioners, concrete and asphalt pavements, and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/open-air/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">air pollution</a> trapping heat between buildings continue to raise the temperature in core cities. These urban heat islands will amplify the impact of global warming, with significant impacts on low-income families and the poor living in substandard housing, lacking safe drinking water, basic energy, and without direct access to air conditioning.Even if air conditioning was affordable for poor and low-income families, running them will require additional energy from over-burdened electricity grids. In Australia’s heat wave last week, the authorities advised residents to delay using washing machines and dishwashers, and requested healthy people to consider keeping their air conditioners at 24oC to save energy. Older model air conditioners also leak HFCs – chemical coolants which are about 7,000 times more potent greenhouse gases than carbon dioxide.Read also:'<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=21128&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">From playing victim to proactive leadership on climate</a>'<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/climate-for-change/the-great-himalayan-thaw/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The great Himalayan thaw</a>, Ajaya DixitIn Nepal, as <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/climate-climax,3651" target="_blank" rel="noopener">global temperature rises</a>, the lower river valleys of the Siwalik and the Mahabharat as well as Tarai plains will see more days when the safe temperature/humidity threshold will exceed 37OC. Even in Kathmandu, June-July-August will have hotter days as global warming combines with the urban heat bubble to make it uncomfortably humid and unsafe.Nepal’s policies, plans and actions have not yet taken the threat of heat risk seriously. Nor have we begun to  systematically assess changes in local temperatures and humidity regimes.Reducing the threat of increasing heat requires us to carefully rewire the way we design houses, build infrastructure, deliver and manage energy, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/who-now-owns-nepals-forests/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">forests</a>, grow food, and maintain productivity of small land holders and field workers. Shifting to cleaner forms of energy for cooking and <a href="w.nepalitimes.com/here-now/cleaner-air-with-greener-buses/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">public transportation</a> would give us the flexibility required to minimise growing threat of heat, and adapt.Urban and rural municipalities can begin working on solutions without waiting for national policies. Local governments have the authority and their programs must emphasise restoration and conservation of natural ecosystems, water sources, and provide incentive for climate-friendly house design and materials. Public health systems need to be better prepared to respond immediately to the elderly, children and pregnant women with heat stress.Increasing heat and low dry season flow of rivers is going to affect millions living downstream from the Himalaya in Nepal and beyond. In the mid term, developed and giant middle-income countries need to significantly curb emission of greenhouse gases. There is no other way.And while they mitigate carbon use, we in Nepal need to be prepared for low river flows in the dry season, and find ways to minimise the impact of prolonged heat waves. The more we delay taking action, the higher will be the future cost of measures we will have to take to adapt to the heat.Ajaya Dixit is Executive Director of Kathmandu based ISET-Nepal. His monthly column Climate for Change deals with the impact of global warming in Nepal.

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Turning on the heat

<figure><img width="1400" height="1045" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101144/636a25b59c7e80680e0439d9jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Illustration: DIWAKAR CHETTRI</figcaption></figure>Climate change is global, it does not respect national boundaries. Neither should its solution. The only way we can save the biosphere from anthropogenic carbon build-up is to reduce our use of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/from-a-fossil-past-to-an-electric-future/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">fossil fuels</a>. There is no other way.The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/decarbonise-now/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">latest report</a> from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the findings presented at the Climate Summit in Katowice late last year show that warming trends are <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-climax/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">much worse than we thought</a>. The effect is already seen in the last few years which have been the hottest since records started being kept.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Terrifying assessment of a Himalayan melting</a>, Kunda Dixit'<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=21132&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Turning on the heat</a>', Ajaya DixitAs Ajaya Dixit writes in his Nepali Times column this week, last week we saw a 100oC difference between the temperatures in parts of Minnesota and Australia. Then unprecedented floods hit Townsville in Queensland. The polar vortex has frozen North America, while above the Arctic Circle it is unseasonably warm.Here in Kathmandu this week, the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) released its long-awaited <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">assessment</a> which shows that the Himalayan mountains are melting faster than anyone expected, Altitude Dependent Warming and deposition of pollution particles are <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/climate-for-change/the-great-himalayan-thaw/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">amplifying the thaw</a>.An analysis of the assessment and interview with ICIMOD’s <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/guest-editorial/mountainous-change,887" target="_blank" rel="noopener">David Molden</a> indicate that even a 36% ice loss during the rest of this century will have serious consequences for 1.6 billion people living downstream from the Himalaya. And that is just the best-case scenario, in all probability carbon reduction targets to keep warming within 1.5oC will not be met, meaning that two-thirds of the glaciers will be gone by 2100. Another recent report is even more apocalyptic: 90% of the glaciers below Mt Everest will vanish during this century.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-climax/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate climax</a>, Editorial<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/decarbonise-now/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Decarbonise now</a>, Ajaya DixitNow that we know things are much worse than we thought, what are we going to do about it in? Nepali Times also talked this week with Gebru Jember Endalew, who has just stepped down as chair of the Least Developed Countries Group in the UN climate change negotiation process who is in Kathmandu for a consultative workshop of the Asia-Pacific region.Endalew argues that least-developed, landlocked mountainous countries like Nepal should move on from seeking funds for climate change adaptation, and launch national strategies to build up <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/going-green-environment-day,3064" target="_blank" rel="noopener">carbon stock</a> and <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/a-fossil-economy,1411" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reduce dependence on fossil fuels</a>.Read also:'<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=21128&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">From playing victim to proactive leadership on climate</a>'<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/climate-for-change/the-great-himalayan-thaw/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The great Himalayan thaw</a>, Ajaya DixitIndeed, what Nepal does or does not do is not going to save the planet. With an annual carbon footprint of 0.12 tons per capita (Qatar’s footprint is 40 tons) Nepal’s contribution is minimal compared to the gas guzzlers. However, Nepal’s petroleum demand is the fastest growing in the region, and has more than <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-cost-of-light/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">doubled in the last two years</a>, increasing our trade imbalance with India. Nepal spent Rs90 billion last year in importing petrol, diesel and gas, widening the country’s already yawning trade deficit.The argument that since we did not create the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/climate-climax,3651" target="_blank" rel="noopener">climate crisis</a>, we should just try to adapt does not hold anymore. Another recent report, State of Climate Action in Nepal says that Nepal also needs to take mitigation action, not only because it will help save our mountains from melting but, much more importantly, to save the country’s fossil-based economy from collapse.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/on-thin-ice-in-the-khumbu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">On thin ice in the Khumbu</a>, Kunda Dixit Nepal’s long-suffering people have lived through <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/performance-legitimacy,3505" target="_blank" rel="noopener">poor governance</a>, instability, under-development, poverty and inequality for generations. We have survived droughts, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/deep-water,3883" target="_blank" rel="noopener">floods</a> and landslides. Adaptation is not a new word for us. And climate change is just the latest crisis to hit Nepal, making all our existing problems worse. It crowds out the other crises we face because it is treated as a stand-alone problem.As Endelew eloquently argues, we need to move beyond the victim narrative in international negotiations and stop blaming historical emissions. As resurgent landlocked countries like Ethiopia and Rwanda have proven, in the final analysis it all boils down to national leadership, and the political will to clean up our own act first.10 years ago this weekThe Editorial in issue #437 of 6-12 February 2009 is so prescient in the context of next month’s Nepal Investment Summit we present the following extract from it:In his address to the nation last week, Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal bemoaned that frequent strikes were scaring away investors. He said the tendency of Nepalis to hit the streets at the slightest pretext needed to be stopped once and for all. But what is Prime Minister Dahal going to do about it? He must know it is goons from his own party who are undermining his efforts to woo investors. The head of the Maoist student wing publicly threatened last week to "break the backbones" of anyone daring to oppose his union. Since they have done it before, nobody doubts their ability to carry out the threat.Union militancy has now become the single biggest worry of the private sector. Many entrepreneurs have bought peace at prices that nobody knows about. It is of no concern to the union mafia that these institutions already pay much higher wages than the minimum fixed by the government. But then it is not really about wages, is it? It is about control and extortion.

Climate damage

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

Nepal conducted its post-GenZ movement early election on Thursday in a peaceful and orderly manner, although turnout was below average in most districts. In fact, some constituencies saw voters reject the election, including in Arghakhanchi and Mustang.&nbsp; Preparation for the polls had to be done hurriedly after the September protests, with little time for political parties to work on their manifestos and campaign. But the election did push most parties to field younger, fresher and untainted candidates. This was more a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/old-vs-new-vs-new">personality-driven election for the next prime minister</a> than a traditional parliamentary poll. The three main parties had pre-emptively announced their prime ministerial candidates although the chief executive is supposed to be decided by the largest party in the House.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_00809e41288d8dd46d1c8915e8e39fba09892049cfda37ba347e4b23989e94c0.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2026030514034_00809e41288d8dd46d1c8915e8e39fba09892049cfda37ba347e4b23989e94c0" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1366" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Balendra Shah</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_d288f2cbe05c9c1376e315ea4f24528c5ee63766c978657aee8848eb9f87f4ea.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="2026030514034_d288f2cbe05c9c1376e315ea4f24528c5ee63766c978657aee8848eb9f87f4ea" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1066" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Gagan Thapa</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_3e2c1c4595b3aa3a4b0c6ca80aa6243e7c5c6e5d232c9295a380c565f85bd233.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="2026030514034_3e2c1c4595b3aa3a4b0c6ca80aa6243e7c5c6e5d232c9295a380c565f85bd233" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>K P Oli</figcaption> </figure>  Going by the noise on social media sites, there seemed to be overwhelming support for the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) and its prime ministerial hopeful, former Kathmandu mayor <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/political-rap">Balendra Shah</a>. Standing against him in his home turf was K P Oli, of the UML who was forced to resign after the 9 September protests. Although the UML was fielding a tried and tested leader, the Nepali Congress (NC) has tried to carry forward the GenZ aspiration for change by putting forward its new party leader Gagan Thapa as its prime ministerial candidate. The lower-than-average turnout appears to have been driven by several factors: a public that is apathetic towards the older parties but is not yet convinced by the capability of the new. Limited time campaigning, and the over-idealistic manifestos of the parties does not seem to have fired up the electorate.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514038_50394032b053d433ed039aeb6d2c00a491d2a56b48a67e55e27fbffe7e4c7fe4.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="2026030514038_50394032b053d433ed039aeb6d2c00a491d2a56b48a67e55e27fbffe7e4c7fe4" data-rendition-name="original" width="1280" height="854" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Photos: ADITYA KHARE</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514038_84677be963084003c9a3d3fec0b8f95ab9b9db08c160f08c82aa03b02cb81260.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="2026030514038_84677be963084003c9a3d3fec0b8f95ab9b9db08c160f08c82aa03b02cb81260" data-rendition-name="original" width="1280" height="854" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> </figure>  The low turnout is also a reflection of massive outmigration from rural districts, and the requirement that voters had to go to their own home constituencies to vote. And since the Election Commission could not organised ballot by mail or online voting, most of the estimated 4 million voters abroad also could not cast their ballots. To be sure, Nepalis abroad do represent an anti-incumbent vote bloc, and they have influenced families and friends back home through social media. The trend towards RSP and younger candidates is therefore a rejection of the old, and a protest vote against the legacy parties rather than full support for the new ones. Many migrants who were coming back to vote were also stuck in West Asia after the war broke out between Iran and Israel-US. Airlines have had to make drastic rerouting plans, and at least 21,000 flights have been cancelled. The conflict will affect petroleum imports including LPG and aviation fuel, if it continues any longer. Although our reliance on fossil fuels is declining, thanks to the increased electrification of transport and cooking, the shortage might be the first crisis for the new government of Nepal to tackle.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514038_986438337f2af271ab33d267560b8a25691a72292aae074488dc8e77f27cf9c1.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="2026030514038_986438337f2af271ab33d267560b8a25691a72292aae074488dc8e77f27cf9c1" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1536" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Polling in Sangjya. Photo: SHRISTI KARKI</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514038_dd2624707dae59f3b32fdebb402a3edfbfe99a4031f4f43dd4522ef7c58bfab0.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="2026030514038_dd2624707dae59f3b32fdebb402a3edfbfe99a4031f4f43dd4522ef7c58bfab0" data-rendition-name="original" width="1523" height="2030" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Photo: SUDIKSHA TULADHAR</figcaption> </figure>  There were 18.9 million registered voters nationwide, and the 60% turnout this time follows a declining trend, possibly making it the lowest in Nepal's polling history. In the first federal election in 2017, the turnout was an impressive 67%, which dipped to 61% in the 2022 election, although it was slightly higher in the municipal election. The EC has started counting the votes on Thursday evening and hopes to have the winners of the FPTP candidates out within 24 hours, however the tallies of the Proportional Representation ballots for the parties may take up to a week.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_8ff38b016d3cb75f27343ebe5d826f9201bfefffb6147dcbb0c415071ceb472d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="2026030514034_8ff38b016d3cb75f27343ebe5d826f9201bfefffb6147dcbb0c415071ceb472d" data-rendition-name="original" width="1616" height="1080" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Ballot boxes being collected. Photos: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_6e6f6a792db2790533b7ef261e51dbdc07745ee96b80eaa8edc5abab4c7cfd21.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="2026030514034_6e6f6a792db2790533b7ef261e51dbdc07745ee96b80eaa8edc5abab4c7cfd21" data-rendition-name="original" width="1616" height="1080" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_75951a6583c17a741e3f9bd1abb796bbefed335cb6e694e5cddf519bfd0b9ed4.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="2026030514034_75951a6583c17a741e3f9bd1abb796bbefed335cb6e694e5cddf519bfd0b9ed4" data-rendition-name="original" width="1616" height="1080" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> </figure>  Many have praised the interim prime minister installed six months ago by the GenZ movement, former chief justice <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/mission-nearly-accomplished">Sushila Karki</a> for conducting the polls on time as promised—a task that looked impossible until a few months ago, especially considering how Sri Lanka and Bangladesh suspended their electoral processes for a long time following their own youth uprisings. Balen Shah also took to his social media to commend Karki. He wrote: 'हजुरको नेतृत्वमा आज लोकतन्त्रले जितेको छ । <a href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E0%A4%86%E0%A4%AE%E0%A4%BE?__eep__=6&amp;__cft__[0]=AZYlGAeGzdXOS93cs8uOYTfW2l5YtXypnOpQOwFwdzWQQ2X_sLcqe_tqk518ULo-ftJnT5sCeT83L5zqMhzL09YgqxYLxDTzkHRSXiEtegetmKjz0ZbMz54cS2KFOKvPtqdHCZn4J6N0i4IvRDSXgHcCdLLd3kQYflb-Popks3zpA3O9Pqd4_Yh9efVCtMUPumJdN0l-y32bQLREPIMYm_mnJDYHbgoUy9iRUGMu1IOGHQ&amp;__tn__=*NK-y-R" target="_blank">#आमा</a>' (Democracy has won under your leadership. #mother). After casting her vote from Kathmandu on Thursday, Karki said: “I have fulfilled my responsibility towards the nation, let us hope the people’s wish for stability and prosperity will be fulfilled by the new elected government.”

Nepal votes with below average turnout

Of the nearly 19 million eligible voters in next week’s election in Nepal, an estimated 5 million are abroad and cannot cast their ballots. Many others within Nepal must travel to their home districts, and might decide not to because of the cost.
Flights into Kathmandu these days are full of global Nepalis returning just to vote, but almost as many are leaving for overseas jobs. Most of those coming or going are in the 20-40 age group, and a majority want Nepal to see a change in leadership.
Bangladesh held an election this month in which citizens overseas could vote by mail.&nbsp;
“Bangladesh made maximum use of technology not just for campaigning but also for polling itself. We could have also managed this, so people within Nepal did not have to travel to their home districts to vote,” says Mohna Ansari, former head of Nepal’s National Human Rights Commission who was an election observer in Bangladesh.
A 3-day holiday has been declared so people can travel to their home constituencies to cast ballots. Even if there was not enough time to manage ballots for overseas Nepalis, it could have been done for Nepalis within Nepal.
Former Chief Election Commissioner Bhojraj Pokharel reckons that physical voting in countries with a large Nepali diaspora would have been a logistical nightmare, but in the PR system, using electronic voting machines or paper ballot could have been piloted in some places. It is not possible to manage the entire voting process until we introduce the internet voting system.
“First of all, there needs to be political will to bring the policy and be ready to undertake that level of investment and it is not a one-time cost,” Pokharel says. “A government formed by the GenZ could have atr least issed an ordinance ensuring this right, piloted out-of-country voting where possible, which could have built pressure for the future Parliament and the government. It would have given people hope. It is a lost opportunity.”
All major political parties called for voting rights for global Nepalis in their manifestos, but these very leaders blocked legislation allowing it despite a 2017 Supreme Court ruling out of fear that it would be anti-incumbent.&nbsp;
<h2>Why so late?</h2>
Bangladesh delivered election results in just one day, but the final results of Nepal's last local polls in 2022 including that of Kathmandu constituencies took nearly a month.
Acting Chief Election Commissioner Ram Prasad Bhandari said this week that the results of the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) ballot counting would “likely” be published within 24 hours of the poll closing at 5PM on 5 March. But many are skeptical.
“I wonder if we lack the capacity or know-how to announce results as quickly as possible,” says Mohna Ansari.
Former Chief Election Commissioner Pokharel says manual ballot paper counting in Nepal is inherently slow because of the large numner of political parties and/or candidates on the ballot, the counting mechanism, the political behaviour of the candidates/parties and some managerial issues during counting.
“Our present policy is to count all the ballot papers at the returning officers' officies, located at the district headquarters. It requires collecting ballot boxes safetly first. This takes time, and there have been cases of ballot boxes being damaged or stolen during transport. In a few highly difficult, geographically remote polling centres, we use a helicopter or transport. But sometimes, accommodating the party and candidates' representatives remains challenging,” explains Pokharel. A solution could be counting ballots at the very booths where they are cast.
Another reason for the delay is simply the number of political parties, and the need for each ballot paper to be examined by booth representatives for consensus. In close races, the smallest difference can lead to tense situations, further delaying results, even though counting centres are protected by metal fencing so there is no disruption.
After this, then it is the turn of Proportional Representation (PR) ballots to be counted. Weeks pass by the time the results of candidates and parties are tallied and verified. But the most common delay is because election officers think ballot counting is a nine-to-five job.&nbsp;
“The efficiency of poll station officers is most important, and they are incentivised for this,” says Ansari, adding that counting can even start within an hour after voting closes.
In remote areas, local resources could be mobilised to make counting quicker, but there is a crisis of trust, adds Ansari.&nbsp;
That could be easily solved with electronic voting which the EC implemented in the 2008 polls but discontinued because political parties felt the machines could be hacked or manipulated.

Nepalis Select Who To Elect

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;