Bihar shares a 600km open border with Nepal. Right along the Tarai, there are linguistic, cultural and family ties binding the two sides together. In some places the border cuts right through households and farmlands.
Unlike what happened in Uttar Pradesh where the BJP was soundly defeated in the 2024 elections by the INDIA alliance, in Bihar’s election this month the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) that brought the BJP together with the Janata Dal (United) secured 200 of the 243 seats in the state assembly.
In Nepal, we make fun of politicians who want to become prime minister for the sixth time. But Nitish Kumar took his oath of office last week for the tenth time as chief minister in 20 years.
Also unlike Uttar Pradesh, the vote was not polarised along religious lines, signalling a deep transformation of Bihari society and the rising political consciousness of its voters.
The most important change must be the massive participation of women voters. Women did not merely make this election decisive, but altered its very character. A polyphonic social configuration emerged from this election that has broken away from entrenched caste-based vote banks of the past.
In 2006 during his previous tenure as chief minister, Nitish Kumar gave half the representation in local political units to women. Many people ridiculed it at first because there was a tendency for male politicians to bring in their wives to fill the quota.
Even if a woman won, in practice the husband called the shots. But over time competent women leaders emerged at the grassroots.&nbsp;
Just before this election, the Chief Minister Women Employment Campaign provided INR10,000 as the first instalment to 12 million potential women entrepreneurs. Once they start their own enterprises they get INR210,000.&nbsp;
Bicycles were distributed to girl students to improve their mobility, and sense of independence. Such schemes are helping to increase women’s leadership and self-reliance. Bihar’s youth and women are driving change.
Nitish Kumar also used federal investment to improve roads, bridges, electricity supply and irrigation across Bihar (“बिज्ली, सडक, पानी”). The transformation is dramatic for those of us who remember the time when roads on the Indian side of the border were much worse than the highways in Nepal.
CRONY POLITICS
Most of this change is in Patna and the main cities, but nearly 90% of Biharis live in villages. And despite these visible changes, Nitish Kumar has failed to bring about an improvement in the quality of education and healthcare. He has also used patronage with cronies to ensure his political longevity.
With 140 million people, Bihar makes up one-tenth of India’s population. But it is still the poorest state in India with an annual per capita income of $900 — one fourth of the country’s national average. Its main industry, just like in Nepal, is the export of manual labour to richer states in India and to the Gulf.
Bihar has had a chronic problem with kidnapping, and this affects Nepal because many criminals seek refuge on our side of the border.
There is a long tradition of rewarding not only corrupt politicians but also their criminal cronies. The criminalisation of politics and politicisation of crime has sustained Bihar’s economy.&nbsp;
The direct impact of this has always been on the state’s development. As <a href="http://xn--bihars%20economy%20has%20two%20special%20characteristics-xn09a.xn--%20first,%20bihars%20development%20is%20halted%20and,%20despite%20having%20potential,%20it%20lags%20other%20states-wn37e.%20second,%20one%20aspect%20of%20its%20backwardness%20is%20also%20that%20the%20people%20of%20bihar%20have%20lost%20hope%20that%20their%20state%20can%20rise%20in%20comparison%20with%20others%20-%20something%20the%20nitish%20kumar%20leadership%20has%20not%20been%20able%20to%20revive%20in%20the%20last%20twenty%20years.xn--%20here,%20the%20political%20business%20of%20sushashan%20(good%20governance)%20has%20flourished%20a%20lot,%20yet%20it%20remains%20trapped%20in%20the%20same%20fate%20of%20ruktapur-w459iof./" target="_blank">Shekhar Gupta of The Print</a> wrote this month in his column National Interest, one in ten Indians is ‘living a sub-sub-Saharan Africa quality of life’.
A culture of looting has been institutionalised, and the word ‘dacoit’ has entered the English lexicon. Nitish Kumar did crack down on crime, but the kidnapping mafia simply moved to a safer and more lucrative business to become contractors.&nbsp;
Large infrastructure projects are built with federal grants, but the budget is skimmed with politicians and their cronies dividing up the spoils. This must sound familiar to us in Nepal.
Bihar’s economy has grown, but it started out at a low base and the other states of India, especially in the south, have grown much faster — so the gap is widening. The very word ‘Bihar’ within India is synonymous with ‘poverty’ and ‘backwardness’.
This is ironic because Bihar is also where democracy was born, where Gandhi launched his satyagraha against the exploitation of indigo workers, where politicians like Jayaprakash Narayan made upliftment of the poorest his agenda.&nbsp;
The Buddha may have been born in Lumbini, but he preached and attained enlightenment in Bihar. Maoist Naxalites rose up against oppression by zamindars in rural Bihar.&nbsp;
Biharis are obsessed with politics, and the mediasphere is full of opinion and debate about various parties and candidates. But somehow politics has not delivered development.
Bihar’s economy has two special characteristics that are similar to Nepal. First, despite huge potential in terms of natural and human resources and the demographic dividend, development has lagged behind.
Second, Biharis, especially the youth, have lost hope that their state can rise up and catch up with the rest of India. The fact that a ten-time chief minister is back after being 20 years in politics provides even less prospect.&nbsp;
Although Bihar's railway network has seen progress, it lacks severely in its management and the joke there is that trains stop even at non-scheduled stations if passengers demand. Such stations even have a name: रुक्तापुर.
The train of Bihar’s development also keeps making unscheduled stops at रुक्तापुर.
Chandrakishore is a Birganj-based political commentator who writes this column BORDERLINES in Nepali Times. @kishore_chandra

Chandra Kishore

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Bihar’s elections and Nepal

India and China have a long-standing border dispute along their Himalayan border which has erupted in violent skirmishes. But Indian and Chinese officials last week agreed to ignore Nepal’s own border dispute with India to facilitate trade. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs this week flatly rubbished <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/territorialism">Nepal’s territorial claims</a> to the Lipulek Pass and the Kalapani Region, including Limpiyadhura, which Nepal considers as the source of the Mahakali River that forms Nepal’s western border with India. The latest episode in this dispute has come as Sino-Indian relations have thawed after US President Donald Trump slapped <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-and-the-us-india-tariff-tiff">sanctions on Indian exports</a>. The joint communiqué in Beijing said India and China had agreed to resume their border trade through the Nathu La, Sipki La and Lipulek during Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi’s visit to New Delhi. Lipulek is a pass 10 km north-east of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/there-is-precedent-to-settling-kalapani">Kalapani</a> which has been disputed ever since the Survey of India published its 1879 map, where the source of the Mahakali was suddenly shifted from Limpiyadhura to Lipulek.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250826060824_4e68dd5964e0995b91148de9978a1de52b19691e1b01f52a405924fd130c22bd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20250826060824_4e68dd5964e0995b91148de9978a1de52b19691e1b01f52a405924fd130c22bd" data-rendition-name="original" width="2000" height="2083" loading="lazy" alt="Lipulek dispute explainer"> </figure>  This tributary of the Mahakali was called the Kali on this map, and is a fordable tributary and not the main channel of the border river. The main Kali River was renamed Kuti Yangdi, and this happened while the British were still in India presumably to gain access to the Lipulek in contravention of the 1816 <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/borderline-disorder">Sugauli Treaty</a>.&nbsp; This subterfuge continued even after India gained independence in 1947. Nepal has maintained that the main channel of the Kali is the border as per the 1816 treaty, when Nepal lost a third of its territory to British India. It is all well and good that India and China are now friendly enough to <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=19447">open border trade</a> routes, but it should not be in violation of Nepal’s territorial integrity. Nepal should be called for diplomatic and political negotiations regarding the Lipulek pass and the Kalapani region comprising Limpiyadhura.&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/when-xi-meets-modi-and-oli">When Xi meets Modi and Oli</a>, Kanak Mani Dixit China and India, but especially the latter, should invite Nepal to discuss these issues and iron out the disputes based on facts and evidence and maps. Nepal had sent seven diplomatic notes to India and three to China so far regarding the Lipulek and Kalapani. India has not responded to any of them. China replied once saying that Nepal and India should sort out their border disputes first before voicing their opinions. Nepal welcomes the recent talks between India and China that it hopes will positively impact on settling border disputes that are mostly stalled since the 1962 Sino-Indian war, the 73-day military standoff over the disputed Doklam region between China and Bhutan, and the 2020 Galwan clash in Ladakh. Nepal’s two large neighbours seem to have come to their senses and realised that it is in their interest to collaborate rather than confront each other when President <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/trump-s-first-month">Trump is acting erratically</a> with threats of sanctions and tariffs.&nbsp; Prime Minister K P Oli should bring up Nepal’s grave concerns about the Lipulek during his state visit to India next month when he will meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Bodh Gaya. The two are also expected to meet next week at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Tianjin when Chinese President Xi Jinping will also be present. But even before that Nepal should send diplomatic notes to both the Indian and the Chinese governments regarding their agreement to resume border trade through the Lipulek.&nbsp; Here is a timeline of the developments regarding the Lipulek: Sino-Indian Agreement of 1954 This 8-year Agreement on Trade and Exchange between Tibet and India was signed in Peking on 29 April, 1954 by the Chinese Vice-Foreign Minister Chang Han Fu and the Indian Ambassador Nedyam Raghavan.&nbsp; There was no explicit mention on the border settlements either on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) or on Ladakh, although trade and pilgrimage through Lipulek and other 5 passes (Sipki La, Mana Pass, Niti Pass, Kungri Bingri Pass and Dharma Pass) were agreed upon.&nbsp; Trade between Uttar Pradesh state and the Tibet Autonomous Region was through ‘border &nbsp;point of the agreement states: ‘With a view to facilitating the visits of persons engaged in border trade and the exchange of commodities and means of transportation, (India and China) have decided that Lipulek (Qiangla) be the border pass for the entrance and exit of the said persons, commodities and means of transportation from the two sides.’ The agreement expired on 6 June 1962 during the Sino-Indian war, and the two sides did not renew it. Bilateral ties started to normalise only in the 1990s with the Indian decision in 1988 to abandon its policy of settling ‘territorial issue’ for ‘normalisation of relations’. India There was no reaction from Nepal to the 1954 agreement since Nepal did not have diplomatic relations with China yet at the time. Sino-Indian Agreement of 2005 The Political Parameters and the Guiding Principles for the Settlement of the Sino-Indian Boundary Question is detailed in 11 Articles, which outline the steps to be taken for a Peaceful and Tranquil Border. The agreement was a direct outcome of the Special Representatives mechanism that had been set up through a 2003 agreement. It also incorporated the Confidence Building Measures in Military Field along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Sino-Indian Border Areas signed in 1996.&nbsp; A protocol on Modalities for the Implementation of Confidence Building Measures in the Military Field along the Line of Actual Control in the India-China Border Areas signed during Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s India visit, which stated in Clause 2 of Article 5: ‘Both sides agree to extend in principle to expand the mechanism of border meeting points to include Kibithu Dhamal in the Eastern Sector and Lipulek Pass (Qing La) in the Middle Sector. The precise locations of these border meeting points will be decided upon mutual consultations.’ Nepal’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement in 2005 stating that Nepal had asked China about the issue and the Chinese Embassy clarified that the agreement had nothing to do with Kalapani. This was perhaps the first time that Nepal had objected to the Sino-Indian agreement on Lipulek. King Gyanendra had staged a coup d’état on 1 February 2005, just two months prior to this agreement. The Nepali press voiced criticism of China in particular for disregarding the country’s sentiment.&nbsp; Sino-Indian Agreement of 2015 India and China signed several documents during the state visit of Chinese President XI Jinping to India on 18 September 2011. Number one on the list was: ’Opening a New Route for Indian Pilgrimage (Kailash Mansarovar Yatra) to the Tibet Autonomous Region of the People’s Republic of China’.&nbsp; The Indian foreign ministry stated: ‘The MoU provides for conducting the annual Kailash Mansarovar Yatra through Nathula Pass in Sikkim in addition to the existing Lipulek Pass in Uttarakhand’. On May 15, 2015, China and India issued a Joint Statement during Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to China. Point 28 under the ‘Trans-border Cooperation’, states that the two sides agreed to ‘hold negotiation on augmenting the list of trades commodities, and expand border trade at Nathu La, Quingla/Lipulek Pass and Sipki La Pass’. Nepal’s objection to the 2015 agreement was stronger than in 2005. Prime Minister Sushil Koirala called up Narendra Modi to express Nepal’s displeasure It was not until 2020 that Nepal’s Foreign Minister disclosed that ‘Nepal had expressed its disagreement in 2015 through separate diplomatic notes addressed to the governments of both India and China … including Lipulek Pass as a bilateral trade route without Nepal’s consent.’  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250826060824_d4497e2620bba81211d27e427393974877e09006abc26e13055508996e5b29ea.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250826060824_d4497e2620bba81211d27e427393974877e09006abc26e13055508996e5b29ea" data-rendition-name="original" width="1108" height="1550" loading="lazy" alt="Lipulek dispute explainer"> </figure>  The new political map of India published by the Survey of India in November 2019 that incorporated areas east of the Kali River including Kalapani as Indian territory sparked renewed public, and political, attention to the Mahakali dispute. The Nepal government then countered by formally approving the publication of the new Political and Administrative Map of Nepal including all territories lying to the east of the Mahakali River on May 18, 2020. In June, the House of Representatives unanimously endorsed the second amendment to the Constitution of Nepal to update the country’s new political map in the national emblem. Sino-Indian Consensus of 2024 A 6-point Consensus on Peace and Tranquility on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) was agreed on December 18, 2024 between the Special Representative of the People’s Republic of China, Wang Yi, and the Special Representative of the Republic of India, Ajit Doval.&nbsp; India has not denied that this is a consensus, while China made it clear that this was not a Joint Statement. This Consensus is in line with the 2005 agreement, and was agreed during the 23rd round of the Special Representatives talks held after a gap of five years aimed at restoring bilateral ties frozen because of the military standoff in Ladakh. The agreement included: cross-border communication and cooperation, promoting the resumption of pilgrimages by Indians to Xizang, cooperation on crossborder rivers, and trade at the Nathu La Pass. Nepal made no reaction to the statement despite Lipulek being the pilgrimage route for Mansarovar and Kailash.&nbsp; Prabhakar Sharma is a construction engineer and an international border expert who has worked as a survey engineer for the Cameroon-Nigeria border demarcation by the United Nations.

Lipulek dispute explainer

The two sides of Punjab in India and Pakistan may be 2,000km away, but the war between two <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/south-asia-2040-qxr16oup">South Asian neighbours </a>sent aftershocks here to the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/borderlines/nepal-india-trans-boundary-bonds">India-Nepal border</a>.&nbsp; Among the 26 tourists killed by terrorists in Pahalgam on 22 April was a Nepali from Butwal on a holiday with his family, and Nepali nationals enlisted in the Indian Army could be see action in case of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/peacemongers-at-india-pakistan-border">conflict between India and Pakistan</a>.&nbsp; The open border between India and Nepal is usually relaxed with people going back and forth without much checking, but after hostilities broke out last week, controls by India’s Border Security Force of documents and inspections of vehicles has been stepped up. About 15km east of Birganj is the frontier village of Ghodasahan. On the Nepal side, the settlement is under the Bisrampur Rural Municipality in Bara District and on the other side it is in East Champaran of India’s Bihar state. There are <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/20-years-ago-this-week/secularism-debate">Hindus and Muslims </a>on both sides of the national boundary that slices through the village. The increased security on both sides of the border is starting to affect the daily life of villagers who had been used to going back and forth without any hindrance. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/nukes-in-the-neighbourhood">Nukes in the neighbourhood</a>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250511160520_7202b268e053118ed783c740918389ace533bf47576c0bda787eecb6f71af5b9.png" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20250511160520_7202b268e053118ed783c740918389ace533bf47576c0bda787eecb6f71af5b9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2230" height="1534" loading="lazy" alt="No man's land"> </figure>  “We know who the locals are, but if there are people who we don’t know and they look different, we interrogate them,” one Nepali security official said, adding that local people also inform the police if they see any strangers. Right along the 1,700km <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/people-to-people-at-india-nepal-border">Nepal-India border</a>, there are many townships like Ghodasahan which have the same name on both sides of the border. In some places, the border divides <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/home-is-where-the-heart-is">homes and households</a>, in others one side of the road is in Nepal and the other side is in India.&nbsp; In most of these villages, the local people have come to accept the presence of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/job-insecurity-in-security-forces?%2F">security forces </a>on both sides. Some farms are divided by the border, and villagers are used to border guards inspecting harvests being brought across. The India-Nepal border is also a hotbed of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/from-the-nepali-press/smuggled-chimps-wait-it-out-in-kathmandu?%2F">smuggling</a>, so police inspections are normal, but the heightened tension between India and Pakistan have made such checks stricter. Also in Bara district is the village of Gulariya which also stretches on both sides of the border. Seventy-year-old Satan Bhagat’s house is on the other side of no-man’s land in India but his livestock shed is in Nepal.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250511160520_4b4057c9f03b82e4f634fc071929b2847897b13982e2dc08eaaa48c6feb9f906.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250511160520_4b4057c9f03b82e4f634fc071929b2847897b13982e2dc08eaaa48c6feb9f906" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1204" loading="lazy" alt="No man's land NT"> <figcaption>Satan Bhagat</figcaption> </figure>  With new requirements for citizenship on both sides, and stricter enforcement of those with dual citizenship, families are having to decide whether they are Nepali or Indian. “We don’t want war, we want peace,” said one villager, apprehensive of the spillover effect of the India-Pakistan conflict. “In the 1971 war we followed what was happening on the radio, but now we know minute-by-minute what is happening <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/surveying-nepal-s-digital-landscape">on our mobiles.</a>”&nbsp; The open Nepal-India border is a model for other parts of the world, where frontier controls are getting tighter and populist anti-migration parties are winning elections. The rhyming slogan in Hindi here has been ‘बोर्डर बनेंगे अमन के निशान, दोनों &nbsp;मित्र नेपाल - हिंदुस्तान’ (Nepal-India Border: A Symbol of Peace).  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250511160520_7607dcca541c23093c11c3b3a5e1380d27401d458d2ce28a24c18a6b609df1fd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_12" data-image-id="20250511160520_7607dcca541c23093c11c3b3a5e1380d27401d458d2ce28a24c18a6b609df1fd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1204" loading="lazy" alt="No man's land NT"> <figcaption>The village of Gulariya in Bara district also stretches on both sides of the Nepal-India border.</figcaption> </figure>  But slogans only go far when policies about these<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=7594"> borderlands </a>are made in faraway national capitals in New Delhi and Kathmandu. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/messaging-is-the-message">The media </a>also has a role in making border controls only about security and crime, and not about how much it helps local people on both sides. The reason there are calls for stricter border control is due to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-geopolitics-of-nepal-s-politics">geopolitics</a>, and this concern has been enhanced by <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/indo-pak-tension-hits-saarc-climate-action">the India-Pakistan conflict</a>. But this is not just about safeguarding India’s security interests, but also about Nepal being vigilant and taking advantage of its open border.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250511160524_d31874e0dad74299d3849a37690e050690604a03f0320b79f1816ea3bb039679.jpg" data-media-id="editor_17" data-image-id="20250511160524_d31874e0dad74299d3849a37690e050690604a03f0320b79f1816ea3bb039679" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1204" loading="lazy" alt="No man's land NT"> <figcaption>Naser Ahmed</figcaption> </figure>  <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/the-world-9-11-made">Terrorism </a>cannot be defined as ‘moderate’ or ‘radical’. Terror has no morals. It cannot be justified by arguments for or against. Terrorism has no respect for innocent human life — whether it is structural violence of the state, or militant counter-violence. Pahalgam was proof that terrorism is not an accident. It does not happen in a vacuum. When geopolitical rivalry is involved, it complicates matters further as a tit-for-tat in which <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/remembering-not-to-forget-the-peoples-war">innocent civilians are cruelly caught in the crossfire</a>.&nbsp; As Naser Ahmed on the Nepal side of the border village of Ghodasahan says: “The open border may not be open forever, we have to work to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/justice-delayed-justice-denied-byrx8a1c">safeguard peace </a>on both sides of no-man’s land.”

No-man’s land

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;