<figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110914110/636ba4cf9c7e80680e073689jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: UPASANA KHADKA</figcaption></figure>The Nepal government knows how much this country is dependent on remittances from Nepalis working abroad. It pays the salaries of politicians and bureaucrats from the money they send home. They should also know how vulnerable the economy is to tensions in the Persian Gulf or Southeast Asia, or global emergencies like this pandemic. The Iraq War, the UAE and Saudi Arabian blockade of Qatar, and tension in the Straits of Hormuz between Iran and the United States highlighted the risk. In 2004, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=1872" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id%3D1872&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1596761920051000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGHXhtxyVCRqf8_H7utduKM5dCPIg">twelve Nepali workers</a> employed by contractors at a US military base in Iraq were shot to death on video. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepali-guards-sue-canada-government/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepali-guards-sue-canada-government/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1596761920051000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEKCY1YNqgQy1Rymz2rk4FUIPTY1w">Fourteen Nepalis guarding the Canadian Embassy</a> in Kabul were killed in 2016 in an attack by Taliban militants. Hundreds of Nepalis had to be evacuated from Libya when civil war broke out there in 2011. And when the massive <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepalis-caught-up-in-beirut-blast-recount-horror/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepalis-caught-up-in-beirut-blast-recount-horror/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1596761920052000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGUeqxhgFA-ENxG2znusOs8BhJAFg">blast rent downtown Beirut</a> on Tuesday, there were Nepali domestic workers and peacekeepers who were caught up in the horror. Because Nepalis are now scattered all over the globe, any conflict or natural disaster is likely to involve nationals of this country. More Nepalis have died of COVID-19 (190) <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/labour-mobility/crossborder-virus-and-nepali-migrant-workers/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/labour-mobility/crossborder-virus-and-nepali-migrant-workers/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1596761920052000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHBK22fLRYmQVTPTh18hAon-pIR_w">in 38 countries</a>, than in Nepal itself (60) so far. The vulnerability of Nepal’s economy to over-reliance on migrant labour has been driven home by this pandemic. In Asia, Nepal is second only to Kyrgyzstan in terms of reliance on money sent home by its overseas workers – a full 28% equivalent of Nepal’s GDP comes from remittances. More than <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/nepals-number-one-export-nepali-people,4103" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/nepals-number-one-export-nepali-people,4103&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1596761920052000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGEFxBT8EcGOGbP-Wp2EQ5cQ5iuaQ">15% of Nepal’s population is working abroad</a>. Of these 2.5-3 million (no one knows for sure) are in India. Of the other 2 million, 60% work in just four Gulf countries: Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE and Kuwait. Of these, an estimated 200,000 have returned from India. And of the 210,000 who have <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/long-and-winding-road-home-to-nepal/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/long-and-winding-road-home-to-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1596761920052000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFaDtbsD6yk-2Hd7YSxM7MwfjHPvQ">registered with Nepal’s missions</a> abroad to come home, only 32,000 have been repatriated since 15 June. For the past two years, the number of Nepalis migrating overseas for work had been steadily declining, although remittances held steady. The pandemic now threatens to reduce that income.   The monthly remittances through official channels in April this year was half the amount for April 2019, although it has picked up since. The World Bank estimates that remittances globally this year will fall 20% below last year’s level, and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) puts the losses at 28% for Nepal as its overseas workers are laid off, or get reduced salaries. <figure><img width="1280" height="720" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110914110/636ba4d29c7e80680e07368ajpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Country wise breakdown of remittance in 2017-18. Source: NRB </figcaption></figure><figure><img width="1280" height="720" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110914110/636ba4d59c7e80680e07368bjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Trend in incoming remittance. Source: NRB</figcaption></figure>The $7 billion a year that Nepali workers abroad send home helps pay for Nepal’s imports, of which the highest proportion (16%) is petroleum. At the household level, surveys have shown that migrant earnings help pay for food and education of most families back home. Nepal’s absolute poverty declined by half to 25% in the past 20 years – most of this is credited to increased household income from workers abroad. A fall in remittances could set Nepal back a decade in terms of gains in maternal and child survival, nutrition and poverty rate.The hope was that many of the returnees could be re-engaged in agriculture to grow food on land that has been fallow because of out-migration. This has happened to some extent this planting season, but because no government campaign was launched to provide credit and other inputs, it will not be at levels where national food production will go up this year.There is also the argument that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepali-overseas-workers-who-remain-behind/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepali-overseas-workers-who-remain-behind/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1596761920052000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEA9m-gqgWfPKTbKGSya8m6IIXqlQ">most Nepali workers in India and overseas still have their jobs</a>, and have not returned. Even though there is an economic downturn, host countries still need migrant workers to do the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepali-overseas-workers-who-remain-behind/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepali-overseas-workers-who-remain-behind/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1596761920052000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEA9m-gqgWfPKTbKGSya8m6IIXqlQ">dirty, dangerous and demeaning jobs</a> that their nationals will not do. But that is a slim hope. The pandemic shows no sign of abating. And as long as structural distortions in the economy that forced Nepalis to migrate (and be exploited and abused in the process) is not addressed, it is unlikely that those who have returned will stay.There is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/homecoming/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/homecoming/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1596761920052000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGFNpJPbN2C5ArVAlZI_HxDehBTAg">no realistic government program</a> on the horizon for <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/where-have-we-heard-that-one-before/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/where-have-we-heard-that-one-before/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1596761920052000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHPsqfIYklx5OBm9rtIpYyBthm3vg">mass job creation at home</a> for returnees, the backlog of Nepalis waiting to go abroad, and the 600,000 new entries into the labour market every year.

original

674x448

610x380

500x500

400x266

400x240

400x203

301x200

1250x600

1084x550

High-risk remittance

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121116/636b8c479c7e80680e06b2edjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1478" height="986"/><figcaption>Prime Minister Oli and NCP co-chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal maintain physical distance at a meeting on Wednesday of MPs from the Far-Western Province to discuss the Cabinet's two ordinances. Photo: PMO</figcaption></figure>K P Oli is now halfway through <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/olis-1st-year/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">his term as prime minister</a>  With almost a two-thirds majority, there was much hope that he would show the kind of statesmanship needed to fulfil his election promise of stabilising politics to focus on raising living standards.The people believed him, and gave his party an overwhelming mandate. But <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/two-thirds-empty/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the NCP predictably fell into the same rut</a> as governments since 1990 -- tainted by cronyism, corruption, poor governance and an utter disregard for the poor and weak sections of Nepali society.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/pressure-mounts-on-pm-oli/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Pressure mounts on PM Oli</a>, Saindra RaiAlthough Nepal has so far, quite luckily and inexplicably, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-must-hope-for-the-best-prepare-for-the-worst/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">escaped the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic</a>  it has exposed the structural imbalance and inequality in Nepali society. Poor state management and political failure have been the hallmarks of previous governments, but this virus has brought it up to the surface like nothing before.It is not just Nepal, around the world the pandemic has exposed governance failure and poor leadership. Some analysts maintain that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/what-nepal-can-learn-from-china-about-covid-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">authoritarian states have been able to better control the spread of the disease</a>, while democracies have floundered.But for every China there is an India, and for every New Zealand there is an Iran. Just like the virus does not respect national boundaries, it does not seem to care about ideology either. In this war, what is important is the health strategy of the state, how strictly isolation is enforced and for how long. The virus does not care if it is a totalitarian government that does it or a democratic one.Governments are also faced with a stark choice: protect the health of citizens or <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-prepares-for-economic-fallout-of-pandemic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">save the economy</a>. The economy cannot be saved unless you make it safe for citizens first, but some governments have quite openly tried to keep businesses going. This is where politics gets tangled with the pandemic.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121116/636b8c4a9c7e80680e06b2eejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1502" height="892"><figcaption>Prime Minister Oli heads back to his residence in Baluwatar after the Cabinet meeting on Monday that endorsed an ordinance to make it easier for political parties to split. Photo: PMO</figcaption></figure>Some democratic countries using the disease as an excuse to stifle dissent, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/pandemic-pangs/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">squeeze the media</a>  and abuse emergency powers. Other elected governments which have failed to manage the epidemic effectively, or have shown a disregard for the vulnerable, resort to extra-constitutional measures to cover up their deficiencies.The Oli administration is guilty of both. The pre-coronavirus <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/censuring-censorship/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">legislations on media control hang</a> like a sword over the heads of journalists. The prime minister himself accused reporters this week of exaggerating the plight of tens of thousands <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-prepares-for-economic-fallout-of-pandemic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">trapped by the lockdown</a>  He has accused the media of having a political agenda in exposing his secretariat’s nexus with businesses profiteering in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-to-test-covid-19-test-kits-from-china/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">procurement contracts of medical equipment from China</a>.Even before the pandemic, disillusionment was running high. The Oli government was wracked by one scandal a week – the real estate heist in Baluwatar, the access given to Yeti Holdings over former royal property, the security printing press deal in which Oli’s trusted Information Minister was caught on tape negotiating a $6 million kickback. And now, the blanket coverage in the media of people left hungry, tired and cashless by the lockdown has exposed the communist government’s lack of sensitivity to the proletariat.Physically weakened by his second kidney transplant, the politically isolated within his own party, the beleaguered prime minister <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/pressure-mounts-on-pm-oli/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/pressure-mounts-on-pm-oli/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1587551043543000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE0sCB_h089dkOeDNQwNtN7TiWe7Q">made a surprise move on Monday</a> by getting the Cabinet to pass two ordinances, one of which will make it easier to legally split a political party. This sent a shock wave through the NCP, brought howls of protest from coalition partners and the opposition, and a wave of outrage from commentators and social media.Indeed, the timing was all wrong. Why was Oli in such a tearing hurry to allow political parties to split, when the country, and the world, is going through one of its worst crises in recent times? This was the time to focus on figuring out a post-COVID-19 exit strategy, and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/unlocking-the-economy-post-lockdown/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">getting the economy cranked up again</a>. For this, the country needs all political parties to row in the same direction.What the ordinance proves is that for the prime minister, his own political longevity is more important than the country’s ability to survive the pandemic and its economic fallout. His goal is still to prevent his arch-nemesis Pushpa Kamal Dahal from succeeding him as prime minister for which he is trying to thwart a possible no-confidence vote against him by holding up the threat of splitting the party.But what the move exposed is a wholesale disregard for democratic norms, constitutionalism, and an undermining of an elected parliament. This will force the country into prolonged instability. And instead of making him stronger, the move has weakened Prime Minister Oli.

Playing politics in a pandemic

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.

Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy

American artist Peter Makela was in Nepal in 2022 on a Fulbright scholarship when he experienced the Matya festival in Patan in which devotees made the rounds of the city’s shrines.&nbsp;
He joined the procession, walking through 2,600 stupa and 140 bahal of the town. That immersion left a lasting impression.
As part of Gallery Mcube’s international residency program in Patan, he put his inspiration to canvas in the exhibition Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping. The exhibition also coincides with this month’s Matya festival.&nbsp;
Makela has visited Nepal often in the past 11 years but he mostly stayed in and spent his time around Boudha. “This time I stayed in Patan, put the sites I wanted to visit on my map, and off I went,” he tells us. “Each of my artwork is inspired by the stupas and shrines in Patan that I visited.”
The stupa and Ganesh are recurring motifs in his watercolours, and the elephant gods are located in chaityas — reflecting the interplay and blending of the Hindu and Buddhist faiths in Kathmandu Valley.&nbsp;
The stupas and Ganesh are painted in vivid red, yellow, blue and green against abstract backgrounds meant to represent the sky.
“I use the sky as a backdrop because the sky has no border,” says Makela. “The four colours represent the four elements, the different Buddha families and also lights bouncing off of a rainbow.”
The use of just four colours for all the artwork stands out, and combined with the absence of heavy canvases, frames or stands render Makela’s art striking in its simplicity.&nbsp;
The Ganesh is always holding something and the art also portrays the elephant god’s sacred vehicle, the mouse.
While his vibrant stupas and Ganesh reflect the tangibility of Patan’s tradition and heritage, it is as if the backdrops with their shades of grey and red and yellow capture the soul of the city’s shrines.
“If you look closely, there is a sense of form and formlessness at the same time,” he says.&nbsp;
Makela walked 108 kora around the shrines during his exploration of the town, and in the process developed a spiritual connection with Patan’s heritage and traditions.&nbsp;
The exhibition connects with visitors on a deeper, more spiritual, level as well. And with it, they feel a sense of pride as well as the need to urgently preserve Patan’s heritage for future generations.
“Peter’s inclination and approach towards Nepali art and culture is fascinating, and it reflects in his work,” says Mcube curator Manish Lal Shrestha, whose international artist residency program promotes Nepal’s cultural heritage. &nbsp;&nbsp;
Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping
1-5 August&nbsp;
10AM-7PM
Gallery Mcube, Patan

iran

High-risk remittance

Playing politics in a pandemic

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Nepal’s bubble economy

Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy

Walking, working, worshipping in Patan