<figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110914110/636ba4cf9c7e80680e073689jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: UPASANA KHADKA</figcaption></figure>The Nepal government knows how much this country is dependent on remittances from Nepalis working abroad. It pays the salaries of politicians and bureaucrats from the money they send home. They should also know how vulnerable the economy is to tensions in the Persian Gulf or Southeast Asia, or global emergencies like this pandemic. The Iraq War, the UAE and Saudi Arabian blockade of Qatar, and tension in the Straits of Hormuz between Iran and the United States highlighted the risk. In 2004, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=1872" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id%3D1872&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1596761920051000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGHXhtxyVCRqf8_H7utduKM5dCPIg">twelve Nepali workers</a> employed by contractors at a US military base in Iraq were shot to death on video. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepali-guards-sue-canada-government/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepali-guards-sue-canada-government/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1596761920051000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEKCY1YNqgQy1Rymz2rk4FUIPTY1w">Fourteen Nepalis guarding the Canadian Embassy</a> in Kabul were killed in 2016 in an attack by Taliban militants. Hundreds of Nepalis had to be evacuated from Libya when civil war broke out there in 2011. And when the massive <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepalis-caught-up-in-beirut-blast-recount-horror/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepalis-caught-up-in-beirut-blast-recount-horror/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1596761920052000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGUeqxhgFA-ENxG2znusOs8BhJAFg">blast rent downtown Beirut</a> on Tuesday, there were Nepali domestic workers and peacekeepers who were caught up in the horror. Because Nepalis are now scattered all over the globe, any conflict or natural disaster is likely to involve nationals of this country. More Nepalis have died of COVID-19 (190) <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/labour-mobility/crossborder-virus-and-nepali-migrant-workers/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/labour-mobility/crossborder-virus-and-nepali-migrant-workers/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1596761920052000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHBK22fLRYmQVTPTh18hAon-pIR_w">in 38 countries</a>, than in Nepal itself (60) so far. The vulnerability of Nepal’s economy to over-reliance on migrant labour has been driven home by this pandemic. In Asia, Nepal is second only to Kyrgyzstan in terms of reliance on money sent home by its overseas workers – a full 28% equivalent of Nepal’s GDP comes from remittances. More than <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/nepals-number-one-export-nepali-people,4103" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/nepals-number-one-export-nepali-people,4103&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1596761920052000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGEFxBT8EcGOGbP-Wp2EQ5cQ5iuaQ">15% of Nepal’s population is working abroad</a>. Of these 2.5-3 million (no one knows for sure) are in India. Of the other 2 million, 60% work in just four Gulf countries: Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE and Kuwait. Of these, an estimated 200,000 have returned from India. And of the 210,000 who have <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/long-and-winding-road-home-to-nepal/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/long-and-winding-road-home-to-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1596761920052000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFaDtbsD6yk-2Hd7YSxM7MwfjHPvQ">registered with Nepal’s missions</a> abroad to come home, only 32,000 have been repatriated since 15 June. For the past two years, the number of Nepalis migrating overseas for work had been steadily declining, although remittances held steady. The pandemic now threatens to reduce that income.   The monthly remittances through official channels in April this year was half the amount for April 2019, although it has picked up since. The World Bank estimates that remittances globally this year will fall 20% below last year’s level, and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) puts the losses at 28% for Nepal as its overseas workers are laid off, or get reduced salaries. <figure><img width="1280" height="720" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110914110/636ba4d29c7e80680e07368ajpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Country wise breakdown of remittance in 2017-18. Source: NRB </figcaption></figure><figure><img width="1280" height="720" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110914110/636ba4d59c7e80680e07368bjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Trend in incoming remittance. Source: NRB</figcaption></figure>The $7 billion a year that Nepali workers abroad send home helps pay for Nepal’s imports, of which the highest proportion (16%) is petroleum. At the household level, surveys have shown that migrant earnings help pay for food and education of most families back home. Nepal’s absolute poverty declined by half to 25% in the past 20 years – most of this is credited to increased household income from workers abroad. A fall in remittances could set Nepal back a decade in terms of gains in maternal and child survival, nutrition and poverty rate.The hope was that many of the returnees could be re-engaged in agriculture to grow food on land that has been fallow because of out-migration. This has happened to some extent this planting season, but because no government campaign was launched to provide credit and other inputs, it will not be at levels where national food production will go up this year.There is also the argument that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepali-overseas-workers-who-remain-behind/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepali-overseas-workers-who-remain-behind/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1596761920052000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEA9m-gqgWfPKTbKGSya8m6IIXqlQ">most Nepali workers in India and overseas still have their jobs</a>, and have not returned. Even though there is an economic downturn, host countries still need migrant workers to do the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepali-overseas-workers-who-remain-behind/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepali-overseas-workers-who-remain-behind/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1596761920052000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEA9m-gqgWfPKTbKGSya8m6IIXqlQ">dirty, dangerous and demeaning jobs</a> that their nationals will not do. But that is a slim hope. The pandemic shows no sign of abating. And as long as structural distortions in the economy that forced Nepalis to migrate (and be exploited and abused in the process) is not addressed, it is unlikely that those who have returned will stay.There is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/homecoming/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/homecoming/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1596761920052000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGFNpJPbN2C5ArVAlZI_HxDehBTAg">no realistic government program</a> on the horizon for <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/where-have-we-heard-that-one-before/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/where-have-we-heard-that-one-before/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1596761920052000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHPsqfIYklx5OBm9rtIpYyBthm3vg">mass job creation at home</a> for returnees, the backlog of Nepalis waiting to go abroad, and the 600,000 new entries into the labour market every year.

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High-risk remittance

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121116/636b8c479c7e80680e06b2edjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1478" height="986"/><figcaption>Prime Minister Oli and NCP co-chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal maintain physical distance at a meeting on Wednesday of MPs from the Far-Western Province to discuss the Cabinet's two ordinances. Photo: PMO</figcaption></figure>K P Oli is now halfway through <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/olis-1st-year/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">his term as prime minister</a>  With almost a two-thirds majority, there was much hope that he would show the kind of statesmanship needed to fulfil his election promise of stabilising politics to focus on raising living standards.The people believed him, and gave his party an overwhelming mandate. But <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/two-thirds-empty/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the NCP predictably fell into the same rut</a> as governments since 1990 -- tainted by cronyism, corruption, poor governance and an utter disregard for the poor and weak sections of Nepali society.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/pressure-mounts-on-pm-oli/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Pressure mounts on PM Oli</a>, Saindra RaiAlthough Nepal has so far, quite luckily and inexplicably, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-must-hope-for-the-best-prepare-for-the-worst/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">escaped the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic</a>  it has exposed the structural imbalance and inequality in Nepali society. Poor state management and political failure have been the hallmarks of previous governments, but this virus has brought it up to the surface like nothing before.It is not just Nepal, around the world the pandemic has exposed governance failure and poor leadership. Some analysts maintain that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/what-nepal-can-learn-from-china-about-covid-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">authoritarian states have been able to better control the spread of the disease</a>, while democracies have floundered.But for every China there is an India, and for every New Zealand there is an Iran. Just like the virus does not respect national boundaries, it does not seem to care about ideology either. In this war, what is important is the health strategy of the state, how strictly isolation is enforced and for how long. The virus does not care if it is a totalitarian government that does it or a democratic one.Governments are also faced with a stark choice: protect the health of citizens or <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-prepares-for-economic-fallout-of-pandemic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">save the economy</a>. The economy cannot be saved unless you make it safe for citizens first, but some governments have quite openly tried to keep businesses going. This is where politics gets tangled with the pandemic.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121116/636b8c4a9c7e80680e06b2eejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1502" height="892"><figcaption>Prime Minister Oli heads back to his residence in Baluwatar after the Cabinet meeting on Monday that endorsed an ordinance to make it easier for political parties to split. Photo: PMO</figcaption></figure>Some democratic countries using the disease as an excuse to stifle dissent, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/pandemic-pangs/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">squeeze the media</a>  and abuse emergency powers. Other elected governments which have failed to manage the epidemic effectively, or have shown a disregard for the vulnerable, resort to extra-constitutional measures to cover up their deficiencies.The Oli administration is guilty of both. The pre-coronavirus <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/censuring-censorship/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">legislations on media control hang</a> like a sword over the heads of journalists. The prime minister himself accused reporters this week of exaggerating the plight of tens of thousands <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-prepares-for-economic-fallout-of-pandemic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">trapped by the lockdown</a>  He has accused the media of having a political agenda in exposing his secretariat’s nexus with businesses profiteering in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-to-test-covid-19-test-kits-from-china/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">procurement contracts of medical equipment from China</a>.Even before the pandemic, disillusionment was running high. The Oli government was wracked by one scandal a week – the real estate heist in Baluwatar, the access given to Yeti Holdings over former royal property, the security printing press deal in which Oli’s trusted Information Minister was caught on tape negotiating a $6 million kickback. And now, the blanket coverage in the media of people left hungry, tired and cashless by the lockdown has exposed the communist government’s lack of sensitivity to the proletariat.Physically weakened by his second kidney transplant, the politically isolated within his own party, the beleaguered prime minister <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/pressure-mounts-on-pm-oli/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/pressure-mounts-on-pm-oli/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1587551043543000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE0sCB_h089dkOeDNQwNtN7TiWe7Q">made a surprise move on Monday</a> by getting the Cabinet to pass two ordinances, one of which will make it easier to legally split a political party. This sent a shock wave through the NCP, brought howls of protest from coalition partners and the opposition, and a wave of outrage from commentators and social media.Indeed, the timing was all wrong. Why was Oli in such a tearing hurry to allow political parties to split, when the country, and the world, is going through one of its worst crises in recent times? This was the time to focus on figuring out a post-COVID-19 exit strategy, and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/unlocking-the-economy-post-lockdown/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">getting the economy cranked up again</a>. For this, the country needs all political parties to row in the same direction.What the ordinance proves is that for the prime minister, his own political longevity is more important than the country’s ability to survive the pandemic and its economic fallout. His goal is still to prevent his arch-nemesis Pushpa Kamal Dahal from succeeding him as prime minister for which he is trying to thwart a possible no-confidence vote against him by holding up the threat of splitting the party.But what the move exposed is a wholesale disregard for democratic norms, constitutionalism, and an undermining of an elected parliament. This will force the country into prolonged instability. And instead of making him stronger, the move has weakened Prime Minister Oli.

Playing politics in a pandemic

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Playing politics in a pandemic