The armistice agreement that ended the Korean War in 1953 has been mentioned as a possible model for how to end the fighting in Ukraine. This makes sense. The <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/trump-s-first-month">Trump administration</a>, however, seems to opt for a quick deal like the 1973 Paris agreement on Vietnam or the Minsk agreements of 2014–15, combining “ceasefires in place” with vain prospects of subsequently reaching a genuine <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/restorative-justice-for-peace-building">peace agreement</a>.
One lesson from the negotiations that led to the Korean armistice is that patient diplomacy is needed to end a stalemated war. When talks began in July 1951, the impatient Mao Zedong estimated that two weeks would be enough to conclude. The negotiations instead took two years.
The result was a long text, detailing the exact border line and establish a demilitarised zone across the peninsula under UN supervision. The stated intention was to follow up with a peace agreement. This came to nothing. The conference established for the purpose in Geneva decided instead to reach an agreement on Indochina, dividing Vietnam for the next 21 years and replacing the French with <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-world-9-11-made">American military forces</a>.
The biggest difference between the Korea and Ukraine wars is that the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/ukraines-lessons-for-sandwiched-nations-like-nepal">Ukrainians are fighting alone</a>, with only external military support, while the Korean War was primarily fought by American and Chinese forces on Korean soil.
Back then, the armistice agreement was concluded by the commanders of the US-dominated UN forces, the Chinese “volunteers”, and the North Korean army, against the wish of Syngman Rhee’s government in Seoul. He wanted to continue the fight for national reunification. Only after being offered a defence pact with the US did he accept the negotiated outcome, yet did not sign the agreement. South Korea has never signed the armistice that has prevented new <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=2664">outbreaks of war</a>.
The key similarity between the Korean and Ukrainian wars is the prominent role of the USA as a supporter of the governments in Seoul and Kyiv. In both cases a condition for ensuring that an armistice can hold is that the US take responsibility for any agreement and joins up with others in providing security guarantees.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/is-the-time-ripe-for-an-end-to-the-ukraine-war">Is the time ripe for an end to the Ukraine war?</a> &nbsp;Herbert Wulf
A key reason why war has not resumed in Korea for the last 72 years is the continued US presence in the south. American troops act as a "tripwire," ensuring that any North Korean invasion would lead to a war it would surely lose. For the same reason, the US needs to have boots on the ground in Ukraine.
Another similarity is that any attempt to conclude a genuine peace agreement is futile. A genuine peace in Korea would require that North and South agree either on national reunification or on recognising each other as independent states, just as East and West Germany did in 1973.
A peace agreement was even more unthinkable for Syngman Rhee and Kim Il Sung in 1953–54 than it is for Seoul and Pyongyang today. It is just as inconceivable that President Vladimir Putin will withdraw voluntarily from Donbas and Krym as it is for President Volodymyr Zelensky to conclude a definitive peace agreement that does not recognise Ukrainian sovereignty to its entire territory.
To maintain the principle of national sovereignty and territorial integrity, it is also crucial for Europe and the UN that Russia’s violation of Ukrainian sovereignty is not internationally recognised. Therefore, just as the two Koreas, Russia and Ukraine must settle for something less than a peace treaty, namely an armistice. This may end the fighting and could save hundreds of thousands of lives but will not establish peace.
An armistice is not a simple ceasefire, where military forces are supposed to remain where they happen to be situated when the agreement is made. For a Ukrainian armistice to be respected, the Russian and Ukrainian forces must withdraw to either side of a clearly delineated demilitarised zone. This is complicated by the fact that the front lines are so long.
The easiest compromise would be for Ukraine to let Russia retain control over Krym, while Russia withdraws from Donbas. Third parties should put pressure on Moscow and Kyiv to accept that neat solution. To soften the pill, Ukraine could guarantee a high degree of local autonomy for Donetsk and Luhansk.
International monitoring with the use of satellite surveillance along the entire border would be needed. If one or both parties were to mobilise combat forces, launch drone attacks, or place rocket launchers on alert, warning signals should be triggered and international security guarantees enforced by robust multi-national forces.
A final similarity between Korea 1953 and Ukraine 2025 armistice is that both sides must abstain from any political interference at the other side of the agreed boundary. Russia and Ukraine must remain fully sovereign and independent states.
Any rapprochement between the two Korean states continues to depend on Seoul’s ability to convince Pyongyang that it does not seek regime change in the north and on the willingness of Kim Jong Un to abstain from provocative <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/thinking-the-thinkable">missile tests</a> and vocal threats.&nbsp;
Putin apparently wants an agreement to include a provision for new elections in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/ukraine-crisis-hits-nepal-economy-hard">Ukraine</a>, so he can interfere in Ukraine’s internal affairs and remove Zelensky from power. This is a destructive demand that should be consistently rejected by any mediating or facilitating party to talks. The Ukrainians must decide for themselves when to lift their state of emergency and hold<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/is-democracy-too-expensive-for-nepal"> democratic elections</a>.
<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/trump-shock-wave-hits-nepal">President Trump</a> has put pressure on Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire and has conceded on Ukraine’s behalf that it cannot get back all its lost territory or obtain NATO membership. He should now concentrate his efforts on convincing both sides to engage in negotiations for a strongly guaranteed and highly monitored armistice rather than a quick and fragile ceasefire or a dodgy settlement allowing one side to interfere in the other.
Stein Tønnesson is Senior Research Fellow (Peace and Security in Northeast Asia) at the Toda Peace Institute and Research Professor Emeritus, Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO).
This article was issued by the Toda Peace Institute and is being republished from <a href="https://toda.org/global-outlook/2025/how-to-agree-an-armistice-in-ukraine-lessons-from-korea.html">the original</a> with their permission.

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How to agree an armistice in Ukraine

When two nearby cyclones rotate around each other, merging into a larger and more dangerous storm, meteorologists call it the Fujiwhara effect.
Is something like this developing in Northeast Asia?
Recent decades have seen an increase in what analysts call ‘transnational conflicts’ – that is, conflicts with local, regional and international dimensions. Ukraine is one example, Taiwan is another. It is difficult to address these multi-level conflicts, since responses are needed at all three levels.
Read more: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/ukraines-lessons-for-sandwiched-nations-like-nepal">Ukraine's lesson for sandwiched nations like Nepal</a>, Bhaskar Koirala
Recently, transnational conflicts in different parts of the world have started to merge together. Responding to these emergent global conflict complexes will be a still more daunting challenge.
East Asia has a raft of unresolved conflicts, left over from the postwar settlement of 1945. &nbsp;The legacy of the Korean war fuels continuing tensions and fears of war. The unresolved dispute over the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-taiwan-war-us-no-allies-2024-7">status of Taiwan </a>leads to dangerous military activity around the island. The territorial and maritime disputes in the East and South China Seas involve clashing nationalisms but also broader strategic concerns over supply lines and resources.
Events in these hotspots were always calibrated against the state of relations between the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/40-years-after-the-sino-us-thaw">US and China</a>, China and Japan, Japan and North Korea. But it is only recently that they have become connected with conflicts in Europe.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 rang warning bells in policy circles in East Asia. Policy-makers feared that President Xi might be emboldened to act against Taiwan following Putin’s lead.&nbsp;
The Ukraine conflict came closer with North Korea’s decision to supply the Russian Federation with weapons, and closer still when President Putin concluded a defence pact with Kim Jong-Un in June 2024. The Russian Federation and North Korea pledged to provide mutual assistance should either be attacked. Kim Jong Un offered “full support and solidarity to the Russian government, army and people in carrying out the special military operation in Ukraine” (CBS News, 19 June 2024).&nbsp;
Meanwhile, on the Korean peninsula, Kim Jong Un warned his people to prepare for war, and ordered the army to undertake <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/Interview/China-s-drills-appear-to-be-rehearsal-for-Taiwan-invasion-U.S.-admiral">‘actual war drills’</a>, while proposing to change the constitution to refer to ‘completely occupying, subjugating and reclaiming the R.O.K. and annexing it as a part of the territory of our ​republic in case a war breaks out on the Korean Peninsula.’
At the same time, the West has not yet learned the lesson that NATO expansion is dangerous, and NATO is preparing to expand its activities into the Indo-Pacific region and north east Asia. <a href="https://apnews.com/article/nato-japan-south-korea-australia-new-zealand-6c3d9aa6fccc1253ca99ee140073f95c">NATO is developing links with South Korea and Japan</a> and invited them to attend its last two summits.
Staff talks between NATO and the Japanese Self Defence Force have identified areas of cooperation in responding to security challenges, cybersecurity and military planning. A NATO office was to have been opened in Tokyo, though France objected to this plan. &nbsp;
NATO sees its involvement in the area as a necessary response to the challenges to the ‘rules-based order’ coming from China, North Korea and Russia. The NATO summit of July 2023 declared that “The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) stated ambitions and coercive policies challenge our interests, security and values.’ The NATO Secretary General followed this up by saying that security is now globalised and security crises in one part of the world reverberate in another.
In April, before attending the NATO Summit for the first time as a South Korean leader, President Yoon condemned any ‘attempt to change the status quo by force’ in the Taiwan Strait, and promised that South Korea would cooperate with the international community to prevent such an outcome. The Japanese strategic community also believes that Japan would be drawn in, under this contingency. The Korean and Taiwan and Japan-China conflicts are thus potentially interlinked.
China and North Korea see the collaboration between NATO and Japan and Korea as a US-led effort to bring NATO into the region. In North Korea’s case, it is seen as part of a US strategy to overthrow Kim’s regime. In China’s case, NATO expansion is seen as a "grave challenge" to global peace and stability. "Despite all the chaos and conflict already inflicted, NATO is spreading its tentacles to the Asia-Pacific region with an express aim of containing China."
The US is deliberately emphasising the interconnections between the European and Indo-Pacific theatres as part of its strategy of building alliances with democratic partners. "We are also growing the connective tissue between US alliances in the Indo-Pacific and in Europe…allies in the Indo- Pacific are staunch supporters of Ukraine, while allies in Europe are helping the United States support peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait," notes National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan.
NATO has addressed the possibility that it might become involved in conflict in the Taiwan Strait, specifically in the situation where US territory and forces came under attack, which would trigger Article 5.
China also objects to the participation of NATO members’ naval units in Freedom of Navigation operations in the Taiwan Straits.
How can the risks of transnational conflicts coming together into global conflict complexes be defused? Second-track dialogue meetings can convene interlocutors from different arenas and bring them together to discuss all aspects of a situation.&nbsp;
But though dialogue efforts are vital, they cannot bear the weight of conflict prevention alone. Restraint, trust-building and moderation on the part of political leaders is also needed. So is a climate of domestic political discussion that replaces security fears and nationalism with mutual understanding and an appreciation of our common humanity.
This article was issued by the Toda Peace Institute and is being republished from <a href="https://toda.org/global-outlook/2024/turbulent-currents-merging-storms-northeast-asia-outlook-june-july-2024.html">the original</a> with their permission.
Hugh Miall is Emeritus Professor of International Relations at the University of Kent, and Chair of the Conflict Research Society, the main professional association for peace and conflict researchers in the UK. He is a Senior Research Fellow at the Toda Peace Institute.

Turbulent Currents, Merging Storms

As dusk fell over Kathmandu, the thunderstorm continued unabated. It had been raining continuously for 18 hours, and the forecast said it would keep raining at least till 8am on Sunday. The Bagmati roared through Chobhar Gorge in awesome rapids – the only drainage outlet for the entire Kathmandu Valley. By evening, 120mm of rain had fallen in 18 hours, more than the average for the whole of October.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251004161016_99ad9098124bec91da71ac42bbe889981fe64dda2dd3012b8bb289cf78ba4c54.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20251004161016_99ad9098124bec91da71ac42bbe889981fe64dda2dd3012b8bb289cf78ba4c54" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Kathmandu floods 2025"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251004161016_59b97f3a3b2af91d3876b298963b3e68395c8b388aba6d9972c9bde1f668608d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20251004161016_59b97f3a3b2af91d3876b298963b3e68395c8b388aba6d9972c9bde1f668608d" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Kathmandu floods 2025"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251004161016_1715f4d6ff1ee87302b697d3c95df36486bea71ed279852ef606c8f5dc68439b.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20251004161016_1715f4d6ff1ee87302b697d3c95df36486bea71ed279852ef606c8f5dc68439b" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Kathmandu floods 2025"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251004161016_ecd3dec69270afbd5a5c71dfa71780b6f8982984a95f3fbb83f23ee594451224.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20251004161016_ecd3dec69270afbd5a5c71dfa71780b6f8982984a95f3fbb83f23ee594451224" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Kathmandu floods 2025"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251004161016_53e47ae222c9f4397bcdad6d8021a711a5671fd45373fb3df2ed5c6413d58359.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20251004161016_53e47ae222c9f4397bcdad6d8021a711a5671fd45373fb3df2ed5c6413d58359" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Kathmandu floods 2025"> </figure>  Settlements along the banks of Bagmati and Vishnumati in Kathmandu have been evacuated and affected families will be temporarily sheltered in schools across the capital.&nbsp; Bagmati Province has set up a Unified Command Team for disaster management while the Home Ministry has instructed CDO and security personnel to be on duty 24/7.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251004171048_7e5d10f8e0042190e54e6db6cddbd51ed9d6d9dbc0cdb087d7af3207c9eaa2d0.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20251004171048_7e5d10f8e0042190e54e6db6cddbd51ed9d6d9dbc0cdb087d7af3207c9eaa2d0" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="888" loading="lazy" alt="heavy rain in Kathmandu"> <figcaption>Friday's satellite precipitation forecast for Sunday morning at 0600 showing heavy rainfall along the Chure Hills and Madhes Province south of Kathmandu. </figcaption> </figure>  The torrential rain has obstructed several highways as well as caused infrastructure damage, but no human casualties have been reported so far. Many had feared a repeat of the deadly flashfloods on 28 September 2024 in which 200 people were killed and half of Nepal's hydropower generation capacity siped out. The government has declared 5 and 6 October as a public holiday to prevent people from travelling during the Dasain festival, and to reduce risk. All highways in and out of Kathmandu closed till Monday. Flood-prone river corridor roads in Kathmandu have been closed after 6PM on Saturday. Meanwhile, all domestic flights were suspended from Kathmandu and other airports from 2PM Saturday, and most inbound international flights were diverted from 3PM onwards. Rerouted flights started arriving in kathmandu late Saturday as the core of the storm system moved east.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251004151056_bad029b05dbfda622986270a798edc6efcc2791ff34f53b9d1283554ac72c39a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20251004151056_bad029b05dbfda622986270a798edc6efcc2791ff34f53b9d1283554ac72c39a" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="heavy rainfall in Kathmandu 2025"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251004151052_9e740929c7ef0899b0f397195695b873bba45b089bb1e11cf37dbe125d0cd60d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20251004151052_9e740929c7ef0899b0f397195695b873bba45b089bb1e11cf37dbe125d0cd60d" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1363" loading="lazy" alt="heavy rain in Kathmandu 2025"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251004151056_2b75c2ea57df76dae1c470f0e460720b7d258868258789729e491ab93cb41ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20251004151056_2b75c2ea57df76dae1c470f0e460720b7d258868258789729e491ab93cb41ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="heavy rainfall in Kathmandu 2025"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251004151056_6c045ac30e50710bcf3ca7b6ca4ac9c45e8d8881ed39f522779c860b0d3f15c3.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="20251004151056_6c045ac30e50710bcf3ca7b6ca4ac9c45e8d8881ed39f522779c860b0d3f15c3" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="heavy rainfall in Kathmandu 2025"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251004151052_9ef160b8403764495b86159661cc9a11d9d7d3b848686a631e5ec8cff0c4c38f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20251004151052_9ef160b8403764495b86159661cc9a11d9d7d3b848686a631e5ec8cff0c4c38f" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="heavy rain in Kathmandu 2025"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251004151052_e5825bcc6666e5235d9db2d4854a19cd6536335ebaf4cd65413acc601ceee3b5.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="20251004151052_e5825bcc6666e5235d9db2d4854a19cd6536335ebaf4cd65413acc601ceee3b5" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="heavy rain in Kathmandu 2025"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251004151056_097077400e96f571f4418cd7b57c082045d86dd9035c31c5acd7ede2bfc54349.jpg" data-media-id="editor_12" data-image-id="20251004151056_097077400e96f571f4418cd7b57c082045d86dd9035c31c5acd7ede2bfc54349" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="heavy rainfall in Kathmandu 2025"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251004151056_30a4da8f384f6fe1a862e775124ae08ccf51c1db60e71e7e2d683e0f25f33546.jpg" data-media-id="editor_13" data-image-id="20251004151056_30a4da8f384f6fe1a862e775124ae08ccf51c1db60e71e7e2d683e0f25f33546" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="heavy rainfall in Kathmandu 2025"> </figure>  Madhes, Bagmati and Kosi provinces are the worst hit with Maheshpur in Rautahat district recording 270mm of rain as of 3PM on Saturday. Similarly, Gaur received 243.6mm, Kalaiya in Bara 200.6mm and Birganj 221.4mm. The Department of Meteorology did not blame climate change, but said the unusually heavy precipitation at a time when the monsoon is supposed to have ended was caused by the head-on collision between moisture-laden westerlies with the retreating monsoon.

More dark clouds over Nepal

Kathmandu: A Reader, the latest publication from Martin Chautari, is an anthology of anthropological essays exploring Kathmandu through various lenses across the 21st century. This compilation is edited by Benjamin Linder and attempts to bring modern discourses on Kathmandu and its urbanity together, in a single volume. The book is divided into three sections: the physical form of the city, the imprints it bears from past political upheavals, and the complexity in the lives of its people. The book examines these diverse aspects, leaving readers who have just witnessed the momentous events of September with anxiety, and perhaps a greater understanding of Kathmandu’s context. Urban planning expert Biresh Shah’s discourse on the Valley’s urban sprawl and its landmarks is insightful, but also prophetic when he warns about seismic risk.&nbsp; Jan Brunson’s chapter on female mobility in Kathmandu via scooters is more optimistic, suggesting small-scale, daily-life movements in Kathmandu transform the city for its various demographics — in this case young women.&nbsp; Linder himself contributes with a discourse on the toponymy of Thamel, close-reading Kathmandu’s tourist hub through the usage and understanding of its name over the ages. MYTHBUSTERS The book is a collage of pieces held together by a thread that runs through the chapters of a vibrant, bustling image of the Valley. One common theme is Linder’s attempt to expand on common understandings and urban myths about Kathmandu. Readers who have spent time in the city will relate to the many anecdotes. for example, Niels Gutschow bringing up the lack of open spaces, or Mark Liechty mentioning restaurants in Kathmandu being melting pots of cultures and castes.&nbsp; The essays here further extend these urban legends by giving historical and anthropological contexts. In-migration and the rise in land prices have led to shrinking open spaces, the creation of cosmopolitan food outlets, and even hubs for sex workers. The Bagmati cleanliness campaign extends to a past understanding of the Bagmati Civilisation. Urban myths become puzzles to be solved by connecting the various threads of discussion across the book. The sections in Kathmandu: A Reader are all by experts in their various fields and present a holistic, well-rounded picture. Yet, it is obvious there is still more ground to cover, more themes to explore — perhaps by more Nepali scholars.&nbsp; In his introduction, Linder admits that due to practical reasons, ‘many wonderful works were left on the cutting room floor’. That is a pity. Indeed, there could have been more discourse on the changing ethnic composition of Kathmandu. A close-read into the lives of people termed as ‘outsiders’ but forming a growing slice of the population would be important to also chart future trends. &nbsp; The religious importance of Kathmandu as a unique civilisational alloy forged by melding the Hindu and Buddhist faiths can be explored more too. One can imagine a future edition including an examination of the post-Covid era Kathmandu valley.&nbsp; This need to broaden the ethnographic literature on Kathmandu becomes more apparent because 11 out of the 15 essays here are written by non-Nepali scholars, including the entire section focusing on urban cultural politics. Linder explains in his introduction that this was largely due to the community of academics in Nepali urban studies being fairly small. Kathmandu: A Reader then becomes even more integral as a gateway for new authors looking to work in the space of urban research on the Valley — undergraduates in the humanities for future theses and research ideas.&nbsp; In a time when Kathmandu is littered with new exam coaching centres for medical and engineering students, an anthology like this helps remind young scholars that there is plenty of scope for qualitative research in the social sciences. Sabin Ninglekhu’s discourse on the sukumbasi and aesthetics in Kathmandu are reminders that stories and academic journeys can be inspired from one’s surroundings. Kathmandu: A Reader has a good balance between academic and lighter readings, and is almost encyclopaedic in nature. There is even content about Kathmandu’s gangsters and scooty girls — allowing readers to venture deeper into their milieu.&nbsp; Kshitiz Pratap Shah is a recent graduate in English from Ashoka University.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251002051016_c8ce28ecfd0dde4986023822b3d40360ead97d29b7f186f6494d8da67021c5a5.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20251002051016_c8ce28ecfd0dde4986023822b3d40360ead97d29b7f186f6494d8da67021c5a5" data-rendition-name="original" width="1136" height="702" loading="lazy" alt="Kathmanu a reader"> </figure>

A reader for Kathmandu

Following the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-s-8-september-massacre">uprising of 8-9 September</a>, the Nepal Army commenced a series of consultations concerning the transition process, during which the potential reinstatement of the monarchy was reportedly under consideration.&nbsp; However, former King Gyanendra Shah declined to pursue this option without a consensus among the political parties. This information was conveyed by Madhav Kumar Nepal, a former Prime Minister and a notable critic of the monarchy, in a newspaper article. The former king, for his part, delivered his annual Dasain message to the nation on 28 September. He emphasised, among other points, that the younger generation constitutes the foundation of the nation’s future.&nbsp; ‘Only the patriotic spirit, energy, and innovative thinking inherent in them can guide the nation toward strength, prosperity, and self-reliance. Let us reflect upon ourselves in the mirror of our country,’ he said. ‘Our political endeavours have often focused on destruction. Now, our initiatives should aim not at ruin but at improvement.’ Seventeen years <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-ghost-of-monarchy-returns-to-haunt-nepal">after Nepal abolished its monarchy</a> and became a federal secular democratic republic, the monarchy still influences the country’s political scene, mainly because of the persistent weaknesses of democratic institutions. Throughout much of its modern history, Nepal’s political landscape was controlled by the monarchy. During the partyless Panchayat system (1960-1990), the palace was consistently criticised for its authoritarian rule. However, it presented itself as the defender of national unity and sovereignty, especially against Indian influence. The 1990 People’s Movement transitioned Nepal into a constitutional monarchy. However, this period was marred by persistent instability, including the outbreak of a Maoist insurgency in 1996 and a royal palace massacre five years later.&nbsp; By 2005, when <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/tell-me-what-the-common-man-is-thinking">the new king, Gyanendra</a>, assumed full control, detaining politicians and restricting press freedoms, the monarchy’s legitimacy was already under scrutiny. The mass movement of 2006 resulted in the end of royal rule, leading to the official abolition of the 240-year-old Shah dynasty in 2008. Supporters of a republic saw this as the outcome of years of activism. In contrast, royalists viewed it as the sudden dismantling of an institution they believed had united Nepal. The new political framework aimed to promote stability, prosperity, and inclusion. However, Nepal has seen over 14 different governments in 17 years. Divided by factionalism, political parties have often focused on overthrowing rivals instead of effective governance. Widespread corruption persists. Infrastructure projects frequently face delays. Millions of young Nepalis leave the country to find jobs, resulting in the loss of many of the nation’s most talented individuals. The common belief that politicians amass wealth while ordinary citizens struggle has caused deep disillusionment. This serious situation led <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/international-spotlight-on-nepal">Nepal’s Generation Z to protest</a> in the streets. Within this broader context, for many, the monarchy has reemerged as a symbol of stability. To some, the king signifies unity that goes beyond partisan divisions. To others, the last Hindu monarch represents cultural continuity amid secular and federalist upheavals. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-s-deja-vu-on-black-friday">Royalist demonstrations in Kathmandu</a> have mobilised tens of thousands. However, electoral support remains limited. The leading pro-monarchy party, the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), secured merely about 6 percent of the vote in the 2022 elections.&nbsp; Major political parties remain steadfast in their commitment to republicanism, and Nepal’s younger, globally connected population broadly <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/a-new-dawn-for-democracy-in-nepal">identifies with democracy</a>, despite frustrations with its shortcomings. Remembrances of King Gyanendra’s authoritarian rule serve as strong reminders of why the monarchy was abolished. However, this memory is gradually being replaced by more recent events.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251002111020_c018307c7b7dda363d04be3d65f01d132c81c62bae7ed2aa1ea235a12719b251.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20251002111020_c018307c7b7dda363d04be3d65f01d132c81c62bae7ed2aa1ea235a12719b251" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="monarchy in Nepal"> <figcaption>Photo: SAROJ BAIZU</figcaption> </figure>  PUBLIC IMPATIENCE Amid dissatisfaction with political parties, a question has emerged about whether the country needs an institution that can enforce discipline. As a result, calls for the reinstatement of the king are not just about Mr Gyanendra Shah, but also reflect a broader desire for government that is stable, accountable, and respectful. The influence of the monarchy extends into regional affairs. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/america-nepal-and-the-royal-coup-qedzifz9">During the Cold War</a>, the palace adeptly balanced relations between India and China, positioning itself as the guardian of Nepal’s sovereignty.&nbsp; It also carefully navigated pressures from the United States and the Soviet Union. Today, as Nepal faces pressures from New Delhi, Beijing and Washington, some royalists perceive the monarchy as a safeguard against external interference. The <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/autopsy-of-a-blockade%20,2863">2015 blockade imposed by India</a> impacted Nepal’s economy and led the country to seek closer comprehensive relations with China. As a result, India has adopted a more cautious approach toward Nepal’s republican leadership.&nbsp; China is viewed as supportive of centralised authority, in contrast to Nepal’s democratic institutions. There are perceptions that the United States, previously supportive of the monarchy, may once again consider it a stable partner. Officially, India, China, the broader international community, and major donors continue to support <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-story-so-far">Nepal’s post-2006 political order</a>. At the same time, they observe ongoing discussions among Nepalis about the possibility of a constitutional monarchy within a democratic framework. Following the recent unrest, some Nepalis believe that restoring the monarchy could create uncertainty for India and China, given Nepal’s complex political landscape. Others suggest that worries about perceived Western influence on the interim government through international NGOs might trigger serious soul-searching in New Delhi and Beijing. Despite its limited mandate to hold elections on March 5, 2026, t<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-pm-set-to-expand-her-cabinet">he interim government</a>, led by former Chief Justice <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/madam-prime-minister-of-nepal">Sushila Karki</a>, has an opportunity to start rebuilding public trust. Although the new government continues to enjoy popularity, there is evident public impatience regarding its delays in investigating corruption and misconduct by the previous leadership, as well as the incidents of killings, looting, and arson during the protests.&nbsp; The nation has been further unsettled by whispers of an impending and potentially more significant political upheaval prior to the upcoming elections. Republicans believe that demonstrating the effectiveness of democracy is the best way to mitigate calls for a monarchy. However, if the leadership fails to address key issues such as corruption, unemployment, and institutional strengthening, it could further boost the monarchy’s influence – and potentially lead to its comeback. Sanjay Upadhya is the author oand analyst based in the Unoited States. Originally posted <a href="http://originally%20published%20at%20https//www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-monarchy-still-sways-nepals-republic-sanjay-upadhya-pe4xe" target="_blank">here.</a>

Why the monarchy still sways Nepal’s republic

One is an archipelago, the other is landlocked. But the Philippines and Nepal have a lot in common: both are disaster-prone, their economies dependent on overseas migrant workers, both went though Maoist insurrections that failed to replace a feudal order dominated by political dynasties. And both countries suffer from rampant corruption. Twelve days after <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-s-new-normal" target="_blank">deadly protests toppled Nepal’s government</a> tens of thousands of Filipinos, many of them youth, also poured out into the streets demanding transparency and better government. Cars were set on fire, and more than 200 people were arrested, nearly half of them minors. The ‘Trillion Peso March Against Corruption’ was fuelled by <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/21/world/asia/manila-philippines-rally-protest.html" target="_blank">anger over embezzlement</a> by politicians and their <a href="https://pcij.org/2025/08/31/5-reveals-from-the-flood-control-data/" target="_blank">crony contractors</a> estimated to top $17 billion in flood control infrastructure that were either never completed, or non-existent.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025100411108_85daed60ed5599f53235312e5b33703244bbac8640dbaf5161f90e5abe83f7eb.png" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="2025100411108_85daed60ed5599f53235312e5b33703244bbac8640dbaf5161f90e5abe83f7eb" data-rendition-name="original" width="2326" height="1366" loading="lazy" alt="Phillipines anti-corruption protests"> </figure>  “We learnt from Nepal and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/30/world/anime-protests-flag-moldova-nepal-indonesia-gaza.html" target="_blank">Indonesia</a> how to deploy social media as a tool to spread information, we are digital natives and well connected within the country and across borders,” said <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/yuri-lemana-68322b183/?originalSubdomain=ph" target="_blank">Yuri Lemana</a> of the <a href="https://www.facebook.com/FOIYouthPH/" target="_blank">Youth Alliance for Freedom of Information</a>, and a part of the GenZ protests.&nbsp; “The system has failed us, unemployment is on the rise, there are shrinking opportunities for youth, and we face environmental threats. There is a realisation that our future is at stake,” Lemana added. Online groups started highlighting bribery and kickbacks in July after President Ferdinand (Bongbong) Marcos Jr himself brought up corruption in the infrastructure budget in his annual address to the nation, and launched a probe.&nbsp; The protests gained traction after powerful visuals of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/international-spotlight-on-nepal" target="_blank">rallies in Indonesia and Nepal</a> circulated on digital platforms. Filipino journalists also exposed the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-f0MFz3vmfE" target="_blank">high-flying lifestyle of contractors</a> involved in siphoning off the infrastructure budget.&nbsp; As in Nepal, the youth protests were joined in by various radical groups. In Manila they reportedly included supporters of ex-president Rodrigo Duterte who is currently on trial at the <a href="https://www.icc-cpi.int/philippines/duterte" target="_blank">International Criminal Court (ICC)</a> in the Hague for extrajudicial killings during his ‘war on drugs’ 2011-2019. Duterte still has a lot of support, especially in the Filipino diaspora, for being tough on crime. Duterte was allied with Marcos in the 2022 elections, and his daughter Sara Duterte is currently vice-president. But the two families had a massive falling out, and the Supreme Court annulled the Lower House’s attempt to impeach the vice-president. This week in Manila, a remarkably well-informed Grab driver replayed TikTok videos of Kathmandu’s burning Parliament building to a passenger from Nepal. After his garment factory was driven out of business by cheap Chinese imports, he started driving a ride-hailing cab and was livid with successive governments not providing opportunities to ordinary people like him. Traffic was gridlocked because of flooded streets, and the driver vented out his anger: “Look at this. The streets are always flooded because of corruption. We should have done here what you did in Nepal.” Even before the protests, Senate President Francis Escudero and House Speaker Martin Romualdez had both resigned over the 'Floodgate Scandal'. Romualdez is Marcos’ cousin and is now said to be in Madrid, where his every movement is being tracked by Filipino diaspora in social media posts. The Independent Commission for Infrastructure has issued subpoenas to probe corruption in flood control projects. As in Nepal and Indonesia, much of the anger was over the offspring of politicians extravagantly flaunting their ill-gotten wealth on Instagram and TikTok. In the Philippines, the outrage is also over political clans passing on electoral seats to offspring. The 21 September protests were centred around Rizal Park and the EDSA Intersection in Manila — both symbolic for previous people’s movements against the Spanish colonialists and the 1986 uprising against the dictatorship of Ferdinand Marcos (father of the present president). “People here had seen what happened in Nepal, and were asking why we weren’t as angry as people there? Why not show our anger, too?” said one reporter who covered the protests. But, he added: “Let’s not be naive. It may have started with youth anger, but there were also people who were paid to infiltrate and instigate. We were also wary that things should not get out of hand like in Nepal.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025100411104_2c02ece56d29b2d8222433572d75c2dcc9bc2f3425d277a0056f393b521eecd0.png" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="2025100411104_2c02ece56d29b2d8222433572d75c2dcc9bc2f3425d277a0056f393b521eecd0" data-rendition-name="original" width="1550" height="996" loading="lazy" alt="Phillipines youth protests"> <figcaption>An Instagram post of the protests in Manila with a comment relating it to the Nepal unrest two weeks earlier.</figcaption> </figure>  Seventy percent of Filipinos are Millennials and GenZ of voting age, and they were impatient with a rigged electoral system. In a clear parallel to what happened in Kathmandu two weeks earlier, radical groups, political rivals, and the general public furious with the system all joined in the protests. Catholic priests, people from all generations and professions had participated in the EDSA Uprising against Marcos in 1986. This time, it was the youth who took the lead. Joseph Francisco Ortega of the <a href="https://www.facebook.com/nationalyouthcommission/" target="_blank">Philippine National Youth Commission</a> said he understands the frustration among the youth that fuelled the unrest. The discontent is also because despite there being young legislators, they are either party-affiliated or scions of political dynasties. “If we can convince young politicians to do the right thing, then we have won half the battle,” Ortega said. “If we want to rebuild quickly and for the long term, we have to change the system from within. There is a constructive way to do this, while exercising the right to non-violent protest.” CROSS-POLLINATION The <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6w8monPKdrc" target="_blank">violence in Manila streets</a> on 21 September was nowhere near the scale of what happened in Kathmandu on 8-9 September, but both transcended GenZ to be an outlet for pan-generational rage much like 1986 in the Philippines.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251004111012_e9cf9abfa8e35f3c074506dfdf94a262b5b311da6863cc2ec7bc3458a983df71.jpg" data-media-id="editor_13" data-image-id="20251004111012_e9cf9abfa8e35f3c074506dfdf94a262b5b311da6863cc2ec7bc3458a983df71" data-rendition-name="original" width="6566" height="4377" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal GenZ protests"> <figcaption>Angry crowd torched Parliament building among others during the 8-9 September GenZ protests in Nepal. Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption> </figure>  “With due respect to the youth, it is not about age but about technology,” explained journalist Malou Mangahas of the <a href="https://www.facebook.com/R2KRN/" target="_blank">Right To Know, Right Now Coalition</a> who participated in the 1986 uprising against Marcos. “We were all young and angry once. We are older, but still angry, and demanding good governance, transparency and accountability.” Just like in Nepal, young Filipinos rallying against corruption were also wary of infiltration, and it was clear from the anti-Marcos graffiti who the instigators of violence were. The GenZ were mainly wearing white while the pro-Duterte crowd <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6w8monPKdrc" target="_blank">are seen in videos</a> in black.&nbsp; The minors seem to have just joined in the melee from their street-side settlements. Rights groups have called for their release, accusing police of rough interrogation and ‘red-tagging’ as Communist provocateurs. Much of the transboundary cross-pollination of anti-government protests across Asia last month used gaming characters, memes, and anime personas like the manga cartoon One Piece flag depicting a grinning skull in a straw hat which became an icon of youth protests.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025100411100_2d09f075663678fe92d4e4dcc631ee6ad1aa8a99996f4c4a3649e4bf4d85132f.png" data-media-id="editor_16" data-image-id="2025100411100_2d09f075663678fe92d4e4dcc631ee6ad1aa8a99996f4c4a3649e4bf4d85132f" data-rendition-name="original" width="810" height="1208" loading="lazy" alt="One Piece"> <figcaption>The One Piece Flag flying during protests in Manila on 21 September. Photo:  CYBERNETICBOYLOL / WIKIPEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Yuri Lemana adapted a saying of gaming character <a href="https://www.warhammer.com/en-WW/shop/mechanicum-archmagos-prime-2024?srsltid=AfmBOorpYg8Zk5G5WiPUS9SXTampX969gMw79sP7ZzkE1G6H5pICR4PW" target="_blank">Archmagos Cortiko</a> in <a href="https://start-warhammer.com/" target="_blank">Warhammer 40,000</a>: “Prayer has its power, but fury also has its uses. If the government tries to hide things from us, we will find a way. Fury will find a way.” Kunda Dixit is the Publisher of Nepali Times, and was a foreign correspondent based in Manila in the early 1990s.

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