<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141148/636d01229c7e80680e0a3614jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1050" height="637"/><figcaption></figcaption></figure>Nepal Rashtra Bank’s (NRB) tightness on share collateral, signs of a lack of liquidity and the opening up of other investment avenues post-lockdown are some of the factors behind the share market’s sharp decline of late.On Sunday, <a href="http://www.nepalstock.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal Stock Exchange (Nepse)</a> recorded the highest-ever fall in its history after the market dropped by 5.03% in just the first two hours of trading. A 40-minute long circuit break was imposed, as 60 companies saw their share values decline by 10%, and the Nepse index to 2782.52 points.A slight recovery was soon posted, but Nepse still fell by 3.7% from the previous day, losing 108.26 points from 2928.8 points to an end-of-day total of 2811.16 points. By day’s end, 31 companies lost up to 10% value on their shares.Despite the fall in the index, there were as many if not more people trading shares and the volume of transactions were unaffected, with 23 million 79 thousand shares of 223 companies clocking in Rs11.24 billion in turnover.The current dip in the share market is in sharp contrast to the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/despite-politics-nepals-stock-market-is-bullish/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">boom during the lockdowns and prohibitory orders</a> when other investment sectors remained shut, allowing big and small investors to trade from home with the online trading system flourishing unabated.Bank interest rates also fell as the investment sector shrunk during the closures. As demand for credit in other sectors began to decline, banks also increased their investments in equity securities. As a result, the stock market traded at a record high with a turnover of Rs19.55 billion and Rs21.64 billion on 14 May and 15 July respectively.However, since then with the reopening of other sectors, the demand for bank loans has increased. There are indications that the lack of investment capital will be repeated. As such, banks are preparing to raise interest rates.The share market’s decline has been particularly concerning over the last week, falling from 3044 points to 2817 in five days. This has resulted in a loss of Rs1.5 trillion, down to Rs39.44 trillion on Sunday from last week’s Rs40.89 trillion.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141148/636d01249c7e80680e0a3615jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="623" height="351"><figcaption></figcaption></figure>Sunday’s fallout also prompted the Capital Market Reform Struggle Committee, led by investor Ram Krishna Dhakal, to demand the resignation of NRB governor Maha Prasad Adhikari for activities that have negatively influenced the share market.The committee has put forward 15-point demands including the limit of Rs120 million on margin loans brought by the central bank through monitory policy to be scrapped, the cap on dividends distributed by microfinance companies to be removed and the provisioning be modified.As per the NRB’s new stricter monetary policy, banks and financial institutions are allowed to give a maximum loan of Rs40 million to an individual or institution on the security of shares. Similarly, an investor can take a loan of only Rs120 million by pledging shares.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/instability-to-cost-nepal-dear-in-2021/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Instability to cost Nepal dear in 2021</a>, Ramesh KumarThe NRB didn’t only tighten its monetary policy, but all subordinate banks were also placed under strict restrictions, effectively banning them from share trading.To be clear, the NRB’s austere policies have caused the market correction by dislodging the confidence of large and institutionalised share traders, says share market analyst Mukti Aryal.The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/insider-trading-taints-nepal-capital-market/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Sarbottam Cement share scandal</a>, in which Nepal Securities Board Chairperson Bhishma Raj Dhungana and Nepse CEO Chandra Singh Saud engaged in insider trading on IPOs, had recently dented confidence in the fledgling stock market.But the only way forward is for the NRB to examine its restrictive policies, adds Aryal: “The tightening of stock pledges is the chief reason for the market’s decline. Pledging one’s own assets as securities for trading should not be restricted.”However, instead of agitating against the regulatory bodies, investors themselves must adopt careful share-trading practices, says a share broker, adding that it is natural for the market to fall after being propped up by companies that very recently had bad portfolios.“If investors had invested in companies with solid portfolios, none of this would be happening,” he says. “Instead of investing smartly in profitable companies, investors hedged their bets on hydropower projects, development banks and finance, following the market rumours rather than prudent investment.”Translated by Kaustubh Dhital from the <a href="https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/125732?fbclid=IwAR1n22ltLRWRA6Yi8Lg23aGzl8ZLzgKvIlBx_UTy1R_3m9GZlgogZ9Y4F80" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepali language original</a> in Himal Khabar.

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Inside Nepal’s biggest stock market tumble

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141112/636ba76b9c7e80680e073781jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>Photo: AJAYA UPADHAYAYA</figcaption></figure>As serious as the rapid spread in Nepal of the novel coronavirus looks, even more frightening is what the lockdown meant to prevent it will do to the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-economy-already-weak-takes-direct-hit/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-economy-already-weak-takes-direct-hit/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1598352647267000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHMB3uRxLtXPB1J9V0PQdJF-f6E6w">country’s economy</a>. The health impact of the virus may pale in comparison to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-plans-to-revive-economy-hit-by-covid-19/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-plans-to-revive-economy-hit-by-covid-19/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1598352647267000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHZ73Q3ug57-h3IKB7NUBfuqD8LyQ">long-term damage</a> to the country from a prolonged lockdown that enters its sixth month today.It is difficult to make predictions on how Nepal’s economy will fare till the end of the year because that will depend on how the virus behaves. But all indications are of that SARS-CoV-2 is here to stay, and that it will resurface with added virulence in winter.On 21 July when Finance Minister Yubaraj Khatiwada triumphantly announced that the pandemic in Nepal had peaked, and the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-ends-covid-19-lockdown/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-ends-covid-19-lockdown/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1598352647268000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEfmOWpPyfs0PHIzdD4yHmecUC6hg">lockdown had been lifted</a>, traders, businesses and industries were cautiously optimistic. But since then there has been a surge, with cases and fatalities more than doubling in the past three weeks.Aside from essential food and other items, business transactions are down by more than half since 24 March when the restrictions were first announced. Even when the lockdown was eased last month, the people’s purchasing capacity had gone down and businesses did not really pick up.The Rastra Bank estimates that it will take at least nine months after the lockdown is fully lifted for the economy to come back to previous levels. This means Nepal is not going to see a recovery this fiscal year. The central bank says 22.5% of those employed in the country have lost their jobs in the past five months of lockdown.The central bank expects Nepal’s economic growth rate to plunge from 6.9% last year to less than 1% this year. But the World Bank is even more pessimistic, it says the growth rate may even go into negative 2.8% if the crisis continues.“Everything is at a complete standstill, there are no transactions taking place except people buying food from day to day,” says Shekhar Golchha of the Federation of Nepalese Chambers of Commerce and Industries (FNCCI). “The question is how long before businesses run out of cash to pay salaries, and families run out of savings.”Factories along the Itahari-Biratnagar and Simara-Birganj corridors have been hardest hit not just by the plunge in demand but because workers who had returned from India after 21 July started falling sick.One of those hit was Jagadamba Steels, whose Sahil Agrawal says: “The sale of steel rods had picked up somewhat after the lockdown was lifted, but after workers tested positive, the local administration closed the factories. Now, with the lockdown everything is closed.”Even worse hit is the tourism and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/domestic-flights-need-to-resume-so-the-economy-can-take-off/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/domestic-flights-need-to-resume-so-the-economy-can-take-off/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1598352647268000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHQz5xiYmnvrrNu2XXeOqvI6eqyXQ">aviation sector</a> where revenue is zero for the past five months. Banks had given loans worth Rs1.1 trillion for hotels and restaurants, and had lent Rs40 billion to the transport sector. They are not in a position to replay even the interest, let alone the capital.Imports are down 20%, from Rs1.7 trillion in the first half of last year compared to only Rs85 billion in the same period this year. That should be good news, but it means the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-unveils-covid-19-budget/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-unveils-covid-19-budget/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1598352647268000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEHmYyroAVpq5ZVmt1E9zdYH6duUQ">government’s tax revenue</a> has gone down by more than half.The middle class has been hit hardest with incomes falling. Of the 923,000 registered businesses in Nepal, nearly all are small and medium enterprises employing less than ten people. As a result, house and property transactions have gone down by half last month compared to the same period in 2019.“Except for mobile phones, motorcycles, fast moving consumer goods, nothing else is moving,” says Golchha. “Even when they do shop consumers are buying cheaper items, which is an indicator of a drastic fall in income.”Even the sale of alcohol products are down by up to 80%. Bhat Bhateni Supermarket’s Panu Poudel says turnover in the nationwide chain had picked up after 21 July, but was still down by a third, but now it is back to zero again.But the real barometer of just how bad the crisis is can be felt in the banking sector where on the one hand liquidity is overflowing because of reduction in loan disbursement, but collection has also shrunk because of defaults. The print editions of the Nepali language press in the past month are full of bank notices for auctions of collateral property. However, even if the property is up for auction, they may be no buyers.In the whole of July-August the banks collected Rs34 trillion in loan repayments, but they lent only Rs28 billion. “The reason is that it is difficult enough just to survive for businesses, and they are in no position to take a loan to invest,” says businessman Pashupati Murarka.The government had told borrowers they had a grace period till December to repay bank loans without being put on the defaulters’ black list, but it is looking like even that is being optimistic.One ray of hope for businesses was that public spending would increase in the run up to Dasain, which this year falls at the end of October. But most businessmen have given up on a Dasain-Tihar revival this year. Car sales used to go up at this time, but the Nepal Automobile Dealers’ Association has cancelled its annual auto show, and its chair Krishna Dulal says: “This year we are just trying to get by, there is no hope for sales.”With revenue down, the government will be forced to borrow. But the state borrowing already makes up 37% equivalent of the GDP, and it could go up to 51% by the end of this fiscal year. Economist Govinda Bahadur Thapa says the government may run out of money if the current trend continues. He says: “We have brought the economy to a standstill to save lives, but we need to save the economy as well. It is a very difficult balance.”Former finance secretary Rameshore Khanal is not as pessimistic. Although he does not discount the seriousness of the crisis, he thinks what could save Nepal is that it is still largely a subsistence economy and families have coping mechanisms to get by in times of extreme hardships. For example, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/cash-flow-crisis-for-migrants-and-families/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/cash-flow-crisis-for-migrants-and-families/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1598352647268000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEYYoLn_p_-ES3VLLcSEZMh_J0QPQ">remittances from Nepalis working overseas</a> have not gone down despite predictions it would drop drastically.He says the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/ways-nepal-can-rebound-from-covid-19/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/ways-nepal-can-rebound-from-covid-19/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1598352647268000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH425REk3c_X8wnX5A6WbreQBdGKw">crisis also presents opportunities</a> for the government. “We can have a pro-active policy to channel unemployed Nepalis to the jobs 1.5 million Indian workers used to do before they went home, and this would be the time to flood the market with liquidity in order to inject cash and raise purchasing power.”Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/ways-nepal-can-rebound-from-covid-19/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/ways-nepal-can-rebound-from-covid-19/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1598352647268000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH425REk3c_X8wnX5A6WbreQBdGKw">Ways Nepal can rebound from Covid-19</a>, Bikash Pandey

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Economic cost of 5 months of Nepal lockdown

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171152/636937c29c7e80680e03fe5ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="700" height="793"/>After ten years of blood and 12 years of trying to come to terms with why it was shed, Nepalis had great hopes for 2018.Last year this time, there was a sense of achievement and optimism. The first <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/the-election-fever-federal-and-parliamentary-election,3982" target="_blank" rel="noopener">elections for three levels of government</a> under the new Federal Constitution had been held. The UML <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/show-stopper-headline,4101" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Maoist alliance swept the elections</a>, and the expected unification of the two <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/a-two-party-state,3968" target="_blank" rel="noopener">parties</a> was supposed to mark the end of unstable coalition politics, and finally deliver development. We had a straight-shooting <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/oli-here-for-good/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">can-do prime minister</a>, who despite failing health, had shown gumption and promise during campaigning.One year later, much of the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/let-a-thousand-flowers-bloom/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">euphoria has evaporated</a>. The past year has been one of missed opportunities, miscues, inaction and blatant blunders. Two months after the election results became clear, the lameduck Nepali Congress prime minister finally stepped down and the two communist alpha males K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal decided to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/one-body-two-heads/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">co-chair their united party</a>, and rotate the prime ministership.Formal party unification took another month. Still, there was hope that Oli would hit the ground running, even if it was through showcase development, cleaning up the roads of the capital and launching major projects.Alas. It may have been unrealistic of us to expect the same septuagenarians from the same parties to suddenly govern with accountability and efficiency. The Nepali people did not expect much, so they were not surprised to see no improvement in their lives. The roads were still dug up, the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/public-transport-syndicate,3531" target="_blank" rel="noopener">bus syndicates</a> that Home Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa promised to eradicate were still around, tanker operators were still striking for the right to steal oil, the culprits who absconded with 33 kg of smuggled gold were never caught, nor those responsible for the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/justice-for-sale/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rape-murder of Nirmala Panta in Kanchanpur</a>.There were some bright spots, and these were mostly in sectors led by efficient and relatively young former UML ministers in the Cabinet like <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/does-nepal-need-a-4th-international-airport/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Rabindra Adhikari</a> (Tourism), <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/win-win-migration/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gokarna Bista</a> (Labour) or <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/calendar-of-economic-change/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Yubaraj Khatiwada</a> (Finance). But even they are finding it difficult within their ministries to get the wheels of government to turn.The rent-seeking state is so habituated to extortion and extraction that Bista has run into a wall in implementing his ground-breaking accord with the new regime in Malaysia to remove <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/kleptocrats-of-kathmandu-and-kualalampur/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">exploitation and costs for Nepali migrant workers</a>. Adhikari, despite all his efforts, cannot go beyond cosmetic improvements at Kathmandu airport. Khatiwada’s valiant efforts at fiscal discipline and capital spending are not yielding results, and this has resulted in a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/banking-on-a-course-correction/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">liquidity crisis that threatens the banking sector</a>.If that is how honest politicians are prevented from delivering, one can imagine what is happening in the ones led by corrupt and ruthless ministers lining their pockets as if there was no tomorrow. The sordid list of impunity and abuse of authority is long and makes for thoroughly depressing reading every morning: ambassadors on the take from traffickers, justices who hurriedly clear criminals ahead of their imminent retirement, absconding multiple-murderers appearing on stage with the CDO and police, and a ministerial secretary demanding a Rs250 million bribe to release funds for the much-delayed Melamchi water project.What is worse is that the public is now so cynical about officials plundering the state that these investigative reports do not even raise eyebrows anymore. Media exposes cause a brief flutter before society shrugs, and moves on.We hoped to be able to wish our readers a happy new year 2019. But Nepal and Nepalis will probably just muddle through another 52 weeks.

A year wasted

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