<figure><img width="800" height="478" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141132/636cfddd9c7e80680e0a0c0ajpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Leaders of Oli-led UML gather for a photo after a Standing Committee meeting on 24 August. Photo: PRADEEP GYAWALI/TWITTER</figcaption></figure>Nepal’s Election Commission on Wednesday evening officially recognised and certified Madhav Kumar Nepal’s UML (Socialist) and Mahanta Thakur’s Loktantrik Samajwadi (LSP) parties. Nepal’s disagreement with K P Oli ended up <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-takes-1-step-forward-2-steps-back/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">splitting Nepal’s largest party</a>,  even though Oli has managed to woo back a dozen or so of the most influential Nepal-backers. In almost identical but reverse symmetry, Thakur had sided with Oli, and that too ended up splitting his JSP so that he had to form a new one. The registration of two new political parties has taken the total number of political parties in Nepal to 97. However, the way political leaders including <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/deubas-long-and-winding-road/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Prime Minister Deuba</a>, and Oli when he was head of government, bent constitutional rules to suit their short-term power games does not bode well for Nepal’s democracy, and future governance. Earlier on Wednesday, 59 lawmakers from the UML had identified themselves in favour of the UML (Socialist) at the Election Commission, while 14 MPs from the JSP were verified for the LSP. <figure><img width="800" height="473" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141132/636cfddf9c7e80680e0a0c0bjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Madhav Kumar Nepal and other leaders arrived at the Election Commission on Wednesday to verify for the Nepal-led UML (Socialist) party. Photo: RSS</figcaption></figure>The two new entities were able to split from their mother parties after Prime Minister Deuba of the centrist Nepali Congress (NC) <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/old-wine-in-old-bottle-in-nepal-politics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">bypassed the Constitution with an ordinance</a> last week allowing political parties to split with only 20% support from the Central Committee and the parliamentary parties.To do this, Parliament had to be adjourned despite a crucial budget debate. But he needed to go through with it to accommodate Nepal’s group in his five-party alliance government as a reward for mutinying against Oli, and bringing down his government in June.Most political moves have something to do with elections in mind, and these power dynamics are also dictated by polls. Some see Deuba’s move to split Nepal’s largest party, the UML, as a shrewd move ahead of polls scheduled for 2023.But Sher Bahadur Deuba also got badly exposed for hypocrisy. In 2020, he had spoken out vehemently against <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-pm-oli-goes-it-alone/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">K P Oli’s attempt to pass a similar ordinance</a>, and his ordinance was sharply criticised across the political aisle, including from within his own NC. These new circumstances will not only impact how the UML and JSP will move forward, but have far-reaching consequences for Nepal’s political and parliamentary processes. Cabinet expansionIt has been 40 days since he assumed office, but Deuba seems to be in no particular hurry to expand his Cabinet beyond just the four ministers he has from the Maoists and his own NC. However, we have word that he is working behind the scenes, trying to divide up ministerial positions, balance competing demands from his five-party alliance that propelled him to prime ministership <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/deuba-5/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">for the fifth time</a>.  <figure><img width="960" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141132/636cfde29c7e80680e0a0c0cjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Madhav Kumar Nepal attend newly-appointed Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba's oath of office in July. Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>There is no doubt that his ordinance move was meant to facilitate his ally Madhav Nepal’s participation in government. NC leaders admit that Deuba will move to fill the Cabinet quickly now that the UML split is official.  "We had been waiting for Madhav Nepal," says NC joint general secretary and close Deuba confidante Prakash Sharan Mahat, “the cabinet should now be complete within the next couple of days.” UML (Socialist) leader Veduram Bhusal says that although there has not been a formal decision to join Deuba’s government, the party will remain in the coalition.  “Madhav Nepal played a significant role in forming the current government, and the government is even stronger now that our party has been officially recognised,” he said. Parliament serves a full term In July, Deuba received 165 votes in Parliament to pass the floor test, including from 22 lawmakers from the Nepal faction of the UML and surprisingly, from the entire pro-Oli Mahanta Thakur faction within the JSP.  That Deuba got that support beyond the required simple majority of 138 votes increased the likelihood that Parliament will after all be able to serve its full term after <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/supreme-court-puts-nepal-politics-back-on-track/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Oli dissolved it twice</a> amid fierce infighting within his party. Possible UML reunification The UML was established in 1990 after the unity of two communist parties and had split once before in 1997 only to be reunited three years later.  So, there is still a slight possibility that history will be repeated. Indeed, as Madhav Nepal moves forward with his rump party, Oli has also been planning his next political move.  The former prime minister has been stepping up party activities standing shoulder to shoulder with his enemies and staunch former Madhav Nepal allies like Bhim Rawal, Astalaxmi Shakya, Surendra Pandey, Ghanshyam Bhusal, Yogesh Bhattarai, Gokarna Bista, and Raghuji Pant. These gentlemen, and one lady, obviously saw their electoral prospects would be brighter if they remained in the original UML with Oli. New electoral alliances Besides negotiations on government formation, leaders of the Maoist (Centre), UML (Socialist), and JSP have already begun to explore the possibility of forming an electoral alliance ahead of the polls in 2023.  In fact, political analyst Shyam Shrestha believes that Mohan Baidha and Netra Bikram Chand factions of the Maoists could also join the alliance if Madhav Nepal’s party “adopts a slightly more revolutionary path”. Considering the similar ideological backgrounds of leaders like Upendra Yadav, Baburam Bhattarai, Ashok Rai, Mahendra Rai Yadav, and Rakam Chemjong, a ‘socialist’ alliance indeed looks possible —at least on paper.  However, the implosion of the ambitious UML-Maoist (Centre) merger into the Nepal Communist Party (NCP) that barely lasted three years has made leftist leaders wary of forging similar marriages of convenience. Says Giriraj Mani Pokhrel of the Maoists (Centre): “The UML and the Maoist (Centre) have both learned that unity is only possible if all parties involved are on the same page regarding political, ideological and organisational issues, and that such a meeting of minds lasts.” Transliteration by Shristi Karki from the <a href="https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/125597">Himal Khabar original</a> in Nepali.

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Nepal’s post-breakup politics

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121148/636b94129c7e80680e06f1dbjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>Illustration: DIWAKAR CHETTRI</figcaption></figure>Nepal’s Supreme Court has been overturning Prime Minister K P Oli’s moves to remain in office one by one, even as it began crucial hearings on his <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/president-endorses-parliament-dissolution/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/president-endorses-parliament-dissolution/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624615526031000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFcfwSAhJcN3o2YRfc09cycuI6fLg">second dissolution</a> of the Lower House on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-sets-elections-in-middle-of-pandemic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-sets-elections-in-middle-of-pandemic/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624615526031000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGn9_SCp2XoTEVx1Y1q1wFMB0pVQQ">22 May.</a>Lawyers presenting their arguments at the Court’s Constitutional Bench on Wednesday and Thursday went beyond just <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepalis-outraged-by-pm-oli-move/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepalis-outraged-by-pm-oli-move/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624615526031000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGyc7SBPAkNZ8daTmk8Xf4bMvaGpA">questioning Oli’s moves</a>, they blamed President Bidya Devi Bhandari for complicity.And beyond calling for a restoration of the House, they also demanded that Sher Bahadur Deuba of the Nepali Congress (NC) replace Oli, since he had amply demonstrated a majority in the House.The final battle in the court is the culmination of a long-drawn power struggle between Oli and comrades within the UML and his former NCP, even while the country faces an emergency with the coronavirus pandemic.President Bidya Devi Bhandari’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/2-ex-pms-vie-to-be-nepal-pm/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/2-ex-pms-vie-to-be-nepal-pm/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624615526031000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEfhpSOMM9zO0aa-OOH9pv0unohLw">rejection of Deuba’s claim</a> to lead the government two months ago had prompted 146 politicians from a five-party alliance to file writ petitions in the Supreme Court on 24 May.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121148/636b94159c7e80680e06f1dcjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1698" height="1272"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Chief Justice Cholendra SJB Rana and Justices Deep Kumar Karki, Mira Khadka, Iswar Prasad Khatiwada and Ananda Mohan Bhattarai will give a final verdict after a stipulated 32 hours of hearings over the next two weeks.That ruling will determine whether the House is reinstated and if Deuba becomes prime minister for the fifth time, or if Oli continues as prime minister to oversee early elections in November. If the House is reinstated, the five-party alliance could also choose some other prime minister.Like Deuba, other leaders of the anti-Oli alliance have also been prime ministers before: Pushpa Kamal Dahal (twice), Madhav Kumar Nepal, Jhalnath Khanal and Baburam Bhattarai.The signs do not look good for Oli whose latest setback was the Supreme Court’s decision on Tuesday reversing his <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-government-reshuffle-during-pandemic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-government-reshuffle-during-pandemic/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624615526031000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEucL_TDQmSld75IHcEemzl7UaY9g">appointment of 20 ministers</a>earlier this month, saying it was unconstitutional for a caretaker prime minister to do so.In fact, Water Supply Minister Anil Jha of the JSP was being welcomed in his constituency in Rautahat on Tuesday when word came from Kathmandu that the Court had directed all Cabinet ministers to stop working. And in a show of defiance, Oli told deposed ministers they didn’t need to vacate their official residence because “something will come up”.In the midst of a pandemic, Nepal's governing Cabinet is now down to Oli and four ministers. The third health minister in a year was among the 20 who had to step down this week after just 19 days in office.The five-party opposition alliance decided to put pressure on Oli by launching street protests starting on Thursday. Speaking to a gathering of editors on Thursday, the NC's Deuba said: "The prime minister and president colluded at midnight to dismantle democracy and the constitution, that is why we have formed this alliance. We will mobilise the public if needed, to fight against a return to authoritarianism."<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121148/636b94189c7e80680e06f1ddjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="720" height="480"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121148/636b941a9c7e80680e06f1dejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121148/636b941d9c7e80680e06f1dfjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="642">Last week, the Supreme Court overturned a Cabinet decision to amend national park regulations so that Yeti Holdings got a license to build a hydroelectric plant in Langtang. The Court also over-ruled an attempt by Oli to allow ministers to automatically become ambassadors, without having to be graduates. Then, Oli’s loyalist chief minister in the UML was voted out of the Gandaki provincial government last week by a coalition of opposition parties.At the Constitutional Bench, the petitioners and the government’s defence lawyers have been allocated 15 hours each to present their case, after which four lawyers from an amicus curiae will be given two hours to give their opinion.Central to the argument will be whether President Bhandari was fair in rejecting claims by both Deuba and Oli that they had a majority in the House to form a new government. On 21 May, Oli claimed he had the support of a majority in the House that he had himself dissolved earlier, by counting the total membership of his own UML and the Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP) — even those in both parties who had defected to Deuba’s camp.Deuba presented President Bhandari with 149 actual signatures of MPs from the NC, Maoist Centre (MC) and dissidents from the UML and JSP. Only 136 votes are needed for a majority based on the current House strength.On Wednesday and Thursday, petitioners at the Constitutional Bench argued that Article 76 (5) of the Constitution clearly stated that if a prime minister cannot demonstrate he has the confidence of the House, the president has to call on any member who can do so to form the next government.Firebrand lawyer Sambhu Thapa argued: “Why does the president require any other proof other than the 149 signatures? Who gave the president the authority to choose her own prime minister, or take away the right of House members to vote? This is a right that was earned after a long political struggle.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121148/636b941f9c7e80680e06f1e0jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121148/636b94229c7e80680e06f1e1jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="642"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121148/636b94249c7e80680e06f1e2jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640">Last week President Bhandari’s office responded to a show cause from the Court with a written explanation that the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-supreme-court-restores-house/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-supreme-court-restores-house/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624615526031000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHluN7S9Tlzf7kz7vsDIVxJidoQig">Supreme Court did not have jurisdiction</a> over the Office of the President. The President’s advisers have said that she took the decision to dissolve the House because the support of some MPs was claimed by both Deuba and Oli.In his clarification letter to the Supreme Court, Oli argued that the Court had no role in a purely political matter.In Thursday’s Constitutional Bench hearings, former attorney general Raman Shrestha argued that the President was claiming a right over the Supreme Court similar to what Nepal’s kings had during the monarchy days.“This debate in the Court is not about Oli or Deuba becoming prime minister, it is about whether a Constitution drafted by an elected Constituent Assembly will remain or not,” Shrestha said.Another lawyer Badri Bahadur Karki argued that a decision on whether Deuba had a majority support of the House or not was not up to the president. “The president invoking Article 76(5) was for the formation of an alternative government, not to reinstate the same government,” Karki argued, adding in English, “the president should have told Oli, you are no more prime minister.”Oli, who has survived many earlier cliffhangers, probably expects the Supreme Court to reinstate the House, and he is planning to demonstrate a majority by <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-pm-oli-back-on-saddle/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-pm-oli-back-on-saddle/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624615526031000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEA1z9mRfljFFGu7HLVClQWlwriyg">wooing back dissident UML MP</a>s and the JSP floor test. Oli will need at least 114 of the total 121 members of the UML as well as at least 20 from the Mahanta Thakur faction of the JSP <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/parliamentary-arithmetics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/parliamentary-arithmetics/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624615526031000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFHTBsAGOKmQ3mM0AWKIqW3ykM03w">to prove a House majority</a>.However, the tenor of the court hearings this week prove that they will not be satisfied with the restoration of the House — they want President Bhandari’s decision to disqualify Deuba’s claim to be prime minister revoked.

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Oli's gambit

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121140/636ce3b49c7e80680e09666cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1280" height="720"/><figcaption>Illustration: DIWAKAR CHETTRI</figcaption></figure>The man of the week in Nepali politics is Mahant Thakur of the Janata Samajbadi Party. He is being courted by both the Maoist Centre, the Nepali Congress and the K P Oli-led UML.The country has been mired in political games, ever since the Supreme Court restored the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/i-had-no-other-option-pm-oli/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/i-had-no-other-option-pm-oli/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1617692393603000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEbsgI2tOFeX6qxx4SDeJa5y9JQ8Q">House of Representatives</a> on 23 February. However, after the Supreme Court delivered its verdict to resuscitate NCP (UML) and NCP (Maoist Centre) on 7 March, there has been an <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/muscle-vs-muscle-in-nepal/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/muscle-vs-muscle-in-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1617692393603000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGbn7z3rWp0xoNrgQkuRW0ziZR6sg">impasse</a>.The UML is the largest party in the House with 121 seats. In order to attain majority, it needs the backing of one of the other parties in the house-- the NC, Maoist Centre and Janata Samajbadi Party.The Parliamentary arithmetic is such that the UML needs the JSP to form a new government, or to survive a possible no-confidence vote. The Maoist Centre can only withdraw its support for the UML if it can get the numbers from the NC and the JSP.The NC itself requires the JSP MPs on its side to ally with the Maoist Centre. Which is why various political leaders have been making a bee line to the Mahant Thakur residence in Sano Thimi this past week.The UML is not in favour of forging a partnership with NC, the chief opposition in the House, with 63 seats in the lower house. The Maoist Centre which has 54 MPs, have repeatedly stressed on withdrawing their support to the government at any given time. In this scenario, the 34 seats held by the JSP will be enough to bail out the government.The leaders of the Oli faction say the possibility of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/a-kathmandu-spring/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/a-kathmandu-spring/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1617692393603000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEBu8negwV_Echty4HOzMRDmtnVDw">forming a government</a> with the JSP is “highly probable”. As per the demand by the JSP for the release of Resham Chaudhary, the government has not just constituted a dialogue team, but the team has already started deliberations. So, is the JSP all set to form a coalition with the UML? Mahantha Thakur  spoke to Nepali Times about his preference.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121140/636ce3b79c7e80680e09666djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="889" height="605"><figcaption></figcaption></figure>Nepali Times: You said recently in Janakpur that talks with Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli are progressing positively. Are the UML and the JSP inching close to an agreement regarding formation of a new government?Mahant Thakur: We have held several rounds of discussions with Oli. He has said he will not resign and if the motion of no confidence comes up, he will face it and if the result does not favour him, then he will go for a fresh mandate. We have put forward our demands. The Prime Minister has sought the opinion of the Attorney General. He is seeking legal advice to decide on what procedure to adopt. This is why I said the dialogue was positive, but no decisions yet.The Prime Minister has not given assurance to fulfill your demands?PM Oli has said he will do his best regarding our demands. He gave us three options. First would be participating in the government. Second, would be to support the government from outside, and third, if we do not go with them, then we should not go anywhere. Our friends lost lives in jail, fighting for their rights. They were injured and even physically disabled. We will decide what to do after these issues are resolved.What are your demands?Release of prisoners, Constitution amendment to address citizenship-language issues. Most of the leaders of today have either made it by taking up arms or have been through prison sentences. All of them have already received clean chit. Our politics has never been for power. Cases have been filed against us because we were demonstrating for our rights. In just 13 districts of Madhes, there are 292 registered cases against more than 1,200 people.Prachanda himself admits there are many cases against him, but those cases do not affect him. On the contrary, we are facing punishment for merely protesting to demand our legitimate rights. We had reached an agreement in writing with both Oli and Prachanda in the past on amending the Constitution, so that our demands could be addressed. But it was not implemented.Can Resham Chaudhary and others who were convicted by courts also be released in the name of political consensus?Resham Chaudhary was not present there on the day the Tikapur incident happened. He is not involved. The ones who were responsible for the massacre fled. Everyone is aware of the fact that Resham Chaudhary is innocent. He was victimised because where the incident occurred is a Tharu settlement.Which of the parties do you think will more likely back your demands?  So many things are best left unsaid until the time is right. In the present context, the Nepali Congress who was expected to lead the government has stepped back, so it is not possible for them to address our demands. The House constituted for five years was dissolved by PM Oli within three years. Even though the Supreme Court has reinstated the House, Prachanda is protesting against Oli. Technically, they still have not separated from Oli. So there is no ground for us to be confident regarding support.Has this indecision itself split your own party? It has been less than a year since our party was unified. We had to reorganise the ranks during the merger. When a party unifies, it is not possible to keep the posts from the previous parties intact. Some positions might be annulled. That causes tension in the party. But whatever the decision, we have agreed to forge ahead as a unified party. We had agreed on every individual providing their own inputs during deliberations and making unanimous decisions when the merger happened. We will not back unilateral decisions.Your name has also come up as a possible Prime Minister.  Madheshis are remembered only when there is a major crisis. People from the Madhes are brought to the forefront only when a mass is required during protests. During the premiership of Baburam Bhattarai, after Nepali Congress and UML declined to head towards the poll under his leadership, my name was suggested. Even now, the circumstance is dire and there seems to be public support, as well. But to actually be nominated as a Prime Minister, an agreement has to be reached in the House.Oli has not offered you to become the Prime Minister?No, he has said he will not resign.Have Nepali Congress and Maoists offered the JSP leadership of a new government?Both Congress and Maoist have sought our support. But they have not asked us to take leadership. During a meeting with us, Sher Bahadur Deuba said he would not table a no-confidence motion, but that if the offer of Prime Minister comes up, he would think about it. He offered to make a coalition government with our support, but we said that we would not form a coalition until our demands were met.By when will your party decide whom to support in the government? The first executive committee meeting scheduled for March could not be held due to inadequate preparations, as the political report to be presented at the meeting had not been finalised. More work is being done in the context of adjustment, so the meeting is yet to happen. Now that Holi is over, we will soon be fixing a date for the meeting.  It will discuss our stance on the current political stalemate, among other things.Full interview in Nepali in Himal Khabarpatrika: <a href="https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/122703" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/122703&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1617692393603000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFQK7-C8MrhW_J1iYVFxYDwDZ4Peg">https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/122703</a>

JSP as Nepal’s king-maker party

It was 30 years ago this month that investment into ‘Baby Arun’, the 201MW first phase of the run-of-river Arun III project, was brought to a screeching halt when the World Bank officially withdrew its support. This brought about profound and fundamental changes in the way Nepal’s power sector subsequently developed. Nepalis suffered debilitating power outages between 2008-2016 due to shortages attributable to the cancellation. At the same time, the gap left by Baby Arun was filled by private sector investment in ways that were not obvious in 1995. It took 30 years, but in many ways Nepal’s power sector is more healthy today than it has ever been, and likely better than if the project was built as planned. At a projected budget of $1.08 billion, Baby Arun would have cost the equivalent of Nepal’s entire annual government expenditure in 1995. It was to be funded by concessional grants and loans from multilateral and bilateral funders, including the World Bank, Asian Development Bank (ADB), KfW, and investment by the government itself. At the time, Nepal’s total electricity generation capacity was only 230MW, and the trajectory of the power sector changed dramatically following the cancellation. In the past 30 years, $5.4 billion has been invested in the power sector led by private investors, and much of it from domestic banks and pension funds (table, right).  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250829150840_c13d6f9f34d7163832b3089eabdad6f20d2d5cef3a53039e0432add2be6c32f0.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250829150840_c13d6f9f34d7163832b3089eabdad6f20d2d5cef3a53039e0432add2be6c32f0" data-rendition-name="original" width="984" height="521" loading="lazy" alt="30 years after Baby Arun"> </figure>  Nearly 70% of the new megawatts generated were by private independent power producers (IPP) in the past 30 years, while the Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) and its subsidiary companies added 30% of new capacity. Almost 80% of total debt financing came from domestic banks and employee retirement funds. International assistance for power generation dropped dramatically over this time, accounting for only about 15% of investment. Before 1995 new power projects used to be entirely dependent on foreign aid. Since 1995, 63% of new generation came from 171 small hydropower projects with an average capacity of 12MW, while 4% was from 21 solar photovoltaic and biomass projects developed by local IPPs.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250829150844_5bc299fc78be90b95ce4727b0b3bdaa4542e17e126718cc8725d136630ffc097.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250829150844_5bc299fc78be90b95ce4727b0b3bdaa4542e17e126718cc8725d136630ffc097" data-rendition-name="original" width="988" height="503" loading="lazy" alt="30 years after Baby Arun"> </figure>  Over three decades, investment in Nepal’s power supply came primarily from new actors that had never before been involved in this sector. The rate of electrification rose from 10% to close to 100% -- sufficient to meet domestic needs during most of the year, and in 2024 made Nepal a net exporter of power to India for the first time in its history. As practically all the new investment in this period went into run-of-river hydro and solar projects, rather than into hydropower reservoirs with seasonal storage, Nepal continues to rely on imports from India during the dry winter months. Surplus electricity generation for export during the monsoon is slated to grow rapidly as another 200 solar and hydro projects are nearing completion of construction, with over 5,000MW of power capacity. Private Power The cancellation of Baby Arun inadvertently accelerated the entry of the private sector into Nepal’s power generation. The government enacted the Electricity Act in 1992 to attract private IPPs and diversify away from total dependence from international aid, but had been struggling for several years to conclude the first agreement with the 60MW Khimti Project. There remained a large gap between the tariff that the government thought was reasonable versus what was demanded by the Norwegian investor Statkraft, and the private sector arms of the World Bank and ADB that were financing the project. The shock of World Bank withdrawal from Baby Arun put tremendous pressure on the government, then led by the UML as it is now. The Bank’s decision to terminate its involvement was ostensibly, at least partially, taken in response to a letter critiquing the project sent by the UML while it was in the opposition.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250829150848_7fb3641d776fe86a09ad60a758f7e16660a409fdb15e541644f13646b0894347.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20250829150848_7fb3641d776fe86a09ad60a758f7e16660a409fdb15e541644f13646b0894347" data-rendition-name="original" width="949" height="446" loading="lazy" alt="30 years after Baby Arun"> <figcaption>BAD NEWS: Newspaper clippings from the early 90s on tender announcement ahead of loan approval (left) and secrecy surrounding environmental assessment (centre) of Arun III before its eventual cancellation in August 1995.</figcaption> </figure>  The government was forced to soften its position and agree to the investors’ terms following the cancellation of Baby Arun. It directed NEA to sign a power purchase agreement (PPA) with Khimti. It was concluded in January 1996, and this was followed by a second PPA in July 1996 with Panda Energy, the American developer of the 45MW Upper Bhotekosi project. The expensive USD-denominated agreements to buy power from two international private producers, with price escalation clauses tied to the New York Consumer Price Index, sent alarm bells ringing. There was worry that the country was heading towards unaffordable tariff rates for the consumer and potential bankruptcy for NEA as a result of inevitable future weakening of the Nepali Rupee. The government had strong-armed NEA into signing these agreements, and realised that concessionary financing terms that Nepal was used to receiving for public sector projects such as Baby Arun and Kali Gandaki A, that included below-market interest rates and 40 years repayment period with a 10 year grace period before starting repayment, were not the norm for private sector investors. Nepal’s status as a less than attractive destination for foreign investment meant that the country had few options but to accept expensive dollar PPAs from international developers with the high commercial interest rates and short repayment periods imposed by their banks because of high investment risks. In the end, the government ended up having to additionally provide a sovereign guarantee in order to close the deal at the insistence of the lenders – committing it to repayment in case NEA defaulted on paying the IPPs. It is reasonable to assume that the extraordinarily high political cost of agreeing to the PPA terms would have meant that no government would have willingly agreed to them in 1995 had it not suffered the trauma of the loss of concessionary-financed public sector projects as large as the Baby Arun. It has taken NEA 25 years to consider offering dollar-denominated PPAs again: to cover the foreign exchange portion of the investment in the 216MW Upper Trisuli-1 and 120MW Rasuwa-Bhotekosi Hydropower projects. It seemed unlikely at the time, but it turned out that the dire situation Nepal found itself in 1995 planted the seed to mobilise investment for affordable power from within the country. Double Whammy After the dual shock of first losing investment in Baby Arun and having to sign expensive power purchase agreements with international IPPs, the first proposal for an alternative strategy to mitigate the risk of foreign currency investment into hydropower projects came from a group of engineers within the Arun III team at NEA. Led by <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=4900">Deputy Director Damber Bahadur Nepali,</a> engineers convinced the leadership that NEA needed to invest in a subsidiary company to build a series of locally-designed and domestically-financed projects that would have lower cost with rupee-denominated PPAs. They registered the Chilime Hydropower Company Limited (CHCL) in October 1995 with 51% shares from NEA, 25% from its employees, and 24% available for the general public, 10% of which was prioritised for local residents at the project site. The 22.1MW project is in Rasuwa on a tributary of the Trisuli, and mobilised debt financing from the Employee Provident Fund, which manages retirement savings for employees of the government, public enterprises, and private sector institutions. CHCL’s experience showed that NEA employees themselves believed that individual hydropower projects with operational independence from NEA could be developed profitably in Nepal by its own engineers -- and they were willing to put their own money on the line. Chilime also demonstrated that there was money in the country, particularly with retirement funds, looking for opportunities for long-term investments. Following completion of Chilime in 2003, CHCL led the formation of three other NEA subsidiary companies that completed construction in 2023 and 2024, producing 168.3MW using fully rupee-tied investment. NEA’s largest subsidiary, the Upper Tamakosi Hydropower Limited, completed construction of its 456MW plant in 2021.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250829160812_ce9ab8b49c598970db3f5bf0a079061ef52f153b28d9f4ead2bb1b26bfd7c2f3.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250829160812_ce9ab8b49c598970db3f5bf0a079061ef52f153b28d9f4ead2bb1b26bfd7c2f3" data-rendition-name="original" width="3000" height="1571" loading="lazy" alt="30 Years after Baby Arun"> <figcaption>DAMNED: The $700 million 456MW Upper Tamakosi built entirely with domestic funds before it was destroyed by the September floods last year. </figcaption> </figure>  There were some delays and cost overruns on this run-of-river project, the largest in the country with a final cost of over $700 million -- all of it sourced domestically. The five subsidiary companies launched by NEA have produced almost two times as much new power as NEA has over the past 30 years. Seven other NEA subsidiaries are currently constructing projects to add another 474MW to the national grid. But even more important than NEA subsidiaries have been local IPPs: Nepali companies which have over the past three decades enthusiastically entered the hydropower sector. From a regulatory perspective, the credit for mobilising domestic private investment to engage in power generation goes to Minister of Water Resources Shailaja Acharya, who in 1998 offered a flat feed-in-tariff of Rs4/kWh for hydropower projects under 10MW. This upfront offer removed a major barrier that early developers had faced of having to spend money to carry out a detailed feasibility study before they could even start tariff negotiations with NEA. She had laid the foundation stone of the Chilime project, and proved to be the champion of opening up the sector for domestic IPPs. The guarantee of a PPA with a fixed tariff, irrespective of project specifications, gave small power developers the confidence to apply for survey licenses and invest in feasibility studies so they could directly approach commercial banks and make a case for their project producing required revenue to repay loans. Domestic IPPs started adding power to the national grid in 2002. Their contribution was initially modest, and first projects were small and commercial lenders who took time to be confident about providing debt financing to a sector which had previously not been considered suitable for private sector investment. While the first 10 years were slow, with less than 10MW being added to the grid each year, this increased twenty fold over the following ten years, resulting in the equivalent of a Baby Arun being added by Nepali IPPs to the grid each year. A total of 84 IPPs added 232MW, 328 MW, 454MW, and 400MW of new generation to the grid in 2021-2024 (graph). There was explosive, exponential growth as domestic developers have surged ahead to account for 76% of the new megawatts added to the grid since 2020, compared to 24% by NEA and its subsidiary companies. The megawatts that IPPs are adding have followed the classic ‘hockey stick curve’ with the ‘breakout point’, signaling the rapid growth phase in 2020. Private producers are expected to accelerate new generation in the coming years with 300 solar and hydropower projects adding 11,000MW. Another 166 hydropower and 96 solar projects are currently in the survey stage, and are in line to add another 11,000MW to the construction pipeline. One major challenge is finding financing required for the projects. Domestic investment will no longer be sufficient to finance this ambitious pipeline of renewable energy projects. Project developers as well as NEA and the Electricity Regulatory Commission will have to leverage their substantial experience accumulated through the construction of over 200 projects to attract regional and international investment and hedge the risks of dollar-denominated PPAs. Following the cancellation of Baby Arun, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/people-power/decentralising-power-in-nepal">Nepal developed a highly distributed power sector</a>. The national electricity grid is currently supplied with power from a remarkably decentralised array of hundreds of hydropower and solar photovoltaic projects spread across 43 districts and all seven provinces.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250829150848_0c3aa66b34bfb08380a624f397bf3ebb4126f4d6b41a26115848b496876f501b.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20250829150848_0c3aa66b34bfb08380a624f397bf3ebb4126f4d6b41a26115848b496876f501b" data-rendition-name="original" width="1228" height="867" loading="lazy" alt="30 years after Baby Arun"> </figure>  This presents a sharp contrast to the pathway of a few large public sector hydropower projects with a sprinkling of private sector projects that was envisioned as part of NEA’s investment planning when Baby Arun was being considered the front runner for investment. The strategy then was to allow public sector investment in a few large hydropower projects with thermal plants to fill the gap. Knowing what we know now about acceleration of climate change impacts and increased extreme weather events, following this path would have made Nepal’s power sector highly vulnerable. Decentralised generation greatly improves the resilience of Nepal’s power supply as damage to power plants in one part of the country need not affect other areas that have their own generation. Following the investment plan where over two thirds of the country’s power supply would have come from power plants on the Arun River, would have greatly imperiled Nepal’s energy security. All rivers in Nepal are susceptible to flooding from cloudbursts made more frequent by climate change. The Arun River which is fed by glaciers in Tibet is also at risk to glacial lake outburst floods. Bikash Pandey is Director of Clean Energy and Circular Economy at Winrock International. People Power is his regular column in Nepali Times on global energy issues relevant to Nepal. <h2>Decentralised and Diversified</h2> In the 30 years since the cancellation of ‘Baby Arun’: Hydropower projects constructed cover capacities ranging from less than 1MW to 456MW and developed by IPPs from across the country with strong local involvement in purchasing equity shares. Renewable energy sources contributed to the generation mix through solar IPPs that further contribute to climate resilience, and cover shortfalls during low rainfall. The government is committed to solar contributing 10% of the power on the grid. Increasing solar beyond this target and providing incentives to project developers to invest in utility-scale battery storage would further improve resilience. BIG ARUN: The 900MW Arun III project under construction since 2018 at Num in Sankhuwasabha (pictured, below) is a separate initiative by a different project developer using a different financing modality. The ‘Baby Arun’ version of Arun III was cancelled in 1995.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250829150852_df534df5166eb5a9bb4cbe101627bdec7ac1df2a405a9d3988d1c86fcc8ecdeb.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20250829150852_df534df5166eb5a9bb4cbe101627bdec7ac1df2a405a9d3988d1c86fcc8ecdeb" data-rendition-name="original" width="1750" height="1312" loading="lazy" alt="30 Years after Baby Arun"> </figure>

30 years after Baby Arun

It cannot be a coincidence that after pushing bills to constrict freedom of expression and allow greater <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/security-or-espionage">surveillance of citizens</a>, Nepal’s government is now tightening controls on civil society.
In a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/guest-editorial/command-and-control">series of recent moves</a> journalists have been sued for contempt of court, imprisoned for YouTube videos, or ordered by courts to desist from investigating corrupt officials.
An amendment to the Print and Publications Act that would hand the power to shut online media to the Chief District Officer (CDO). Another draft Bill would allow a political appointee to head a new Media Council with the power to revoke a journalist’s license. The draft counter-intelligence Bill would let random officials to arbitrarily tap phones, read emails and trail citizens.
Now comes yet another draft Bill that would replace the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=10675">Social Welfare Council (SWC)</a> with direct government control over registration, regulation, and management of non-governmental organisations, nonprofits and charities. There are more than 54,000 NGOs, 200 international NGOs registered with the SWC.
The draft makes civil society organisations needlessly jump through hoops to carry out work that complements the government in the social sector. Critics say the Bill was drafted without any consultation with <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/nepal-s-rights-groups-must-step-up-4r4z6ck4">civic groups</a>.
“This Bill’s content is questionable whether it intends to allow for civil society organisations in Nepal a free space to operate,” concludes Dr SP Kalaunee, Country Representative of BlinkNow Foundation and Chair of the Association of International NGOs in Nepal (AIN). “The draft seems oriented towards controling rather than facilitating the work of civil society organisations.”
The Bill will be open for feedback from the public, and integrates the National Directives Act (1961), Association Registration Act (1977), and the Social Welfare Act (1992) and proposes dissolving the SWC and replacing it with a new Social Welfare Department under the Ministry of Women, Children and Senior Citizens.
Non-government groups will now be required to get approval from the Registrar Office, the CDO or the provincial government depending on their area of operation. Those working across provinces will have to get permission from the federal government. &nbsp;
The government says the Bill is intended to vet organisations to see if they are engaged in espionage, violate national security, assist a foreign state, commit treason, cause strife between federal units, or incite communal violence.&nbsp;
CSOs working in Nepal have long called for legislation to better facilitate their work, minimise administrative and bureaucratic red tape which have posed operational challenges. But they are opposed to such drastic control.&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/the-crow-and-the-scarecrow">The crow and the scarecrow</a>, Om Astha Rai
The NGO Federation of Nepal also issued a statement this week calling the Bill ‘retrograde and cumbersome’. It added: ‘Most of its provisions are intended to further constrain and control civil society organisations rather than facilitate and strengthen them, and reduce the role of citizen participation … it is an attack on our civil liberties, inclusivity, and transparency, and curtails our <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=5156">democratic values and constitutional rights</a>.’ &nbsp;
<a href="about:blank">Nepal’s graduation</a> from least-developed country status next year may mean less aid for Nepal, and higher interest rates on loans from multilateral creditors. The <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/how-usaid-cut-affects-nepal">closure of USAID </a>and reduction in bilateral grants means the work of INGOs will be even more vital – especially to meet its <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/target-2030-for-maternal-and-newborn-health">SDG targets by 2030</a>.&nbsp;
“We are competing with other countries at a time when the global aid environment is shrinking, so the support we receive is directly dependent on a conducive environment for INGOs to operate and function,” says Kalaunee. “INGOs follow regulations of the nations they operate in, they will not protest or wait around for governments to change their minds or policies.”
Social safety net
Since 1977, the work of non-governmental actors in Nepal has been regulated by the Social Service National Coordination Council (SSNCC) chaired by Queen Aishwarya.
After the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/one-moment-30-years-ago-today">1990 People’s Movement</a>, King Birendra set up the Social Welfare Council (SWC) as an autonomous body in 1992 through the Social Welfare Act. But since then the SWC has been dogged by controversy and allegations of corruption and extortion.
In 2018, the Commission for the Investigation of Abuse of Authority (CIAA) filed a Rs315 million corruption case against 14 individuals, including the Minister of Women, Children and Social Welfare and SWC chair Badri Prasad Neupane and other officials for violating public procurement laws to rent out three hectares of its property around Bhrikuti Mandap.
Civil society groups have for years called for reforms in the SWC, and a report was drawn up to restructure it before this Bill proposed its dissolution. INGOs in particular will now have to go through the Social Welfare Department and multiple ministries for permissions.
A particularly objectionable provision in the draft stipulates that NGOs must have a Board of Director made up almost entirely of secretaries of various ministries. The NGO Federation has urged the government to take a civil society-friendly approach and not tangle its work in red tape and control. It says the government has no option but to revise the bill in its current form.
“Civil society organisations need an open space to operate, and an autonomous body to oversee them,” says Kalaunee. “Non-government organisations support in the areas prioritised by the government but by definition they cannot be a part of government.”

Big, beautiful Bills

This is the 72nd episode of Diaspora Diaries, a Nepali Times series in collaboration with Migration Lab providing a platform to share experiences of living, working and studying abroad. My father ran a store and that is where I spent all my time till Grade 6. Doing my homework. Serving customers. I then moved to my maternal grandparents’ house because I used to get along with my cousin who was a year older than me. We did everything together, and were best friends. We took turns studying: I was a night owl, and he was an early riser. Before I went to bed after studying all night, I woke him up. My mother was 44 when I was born, the same year my eldest brother got married. My sister-in-law becoming a part of our family was how my mother referenced my age. I liked making money, and was always a hustler. In Grade 7, I learnt to handle a tractor and helped my brother-in-law to plough, earning Rs10 a day. As I got better, he paid me more. By Grade 9, I was already making Rs500 per day, but had to slow down to prepare for my exams. From an early age I knew I did not want a 9-5 job. There just wasn’t enough money in it. I wanted to get into business, and compared my brother who worked in the post office and what businessmen made. It did not help that my brother was honest, and never took bribes. A friend and I made money selling cheap Chinese phones at a premium to our friends. We blasted music on the phones and pretended that we were giving them a discount. After SLC, I started teaching math and other subjects. I was soon a shareholder in the same school and in the evening I was involved in our family’s floriculture business, growing amaranth and marigold for garlands.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250831020844_1b54b999d67122a50c4c7e6204cc737bcc99bf2a68db6499a4566a7f61a880b4.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250831020844_1b54b999d67122a50c4c7e6204cc737bcc99bf2a68db6499a4566a7f61a880b4" data-rendition-name="original" width="955" height="1314" loading="lazy" alt="Diaspora Diaries 72"> </figure>  It was then that a friend suggested we learn the Korean language. We could be earning significantly higher in Korea for similar efforts. I had no plans to go abroad but he convinced me. I did not know anything about Korea, and was scolded at the language institute when I asked someone to point Korea on the map.&nbsp; It was only there that I learnt you had to pass an exam for the Korean Employment Permit System (EPS), and pay for language classes. After a week, I decided it was not for me and dropped out. But my friend convinced me to give it one more try. I did not prepare much for the exam, and it was no surprise that I failed. But it was just by one mark, and people would pity me for failing “just by one mark”. It was a brand of failure. It hurt my ego. I had to turn things around by taking the exams seriously, and locked myself up to study hard.&nbsp; Even when we had visitors, my wife told them I was not home. If I was not in my room learning Korean, I would be with a group of ten of us test-takers comparing notes and practicing late into the night. The exam was difficult, but this time I passed, the only one in my group who did.&nbsp; As someone who never liked the idea of doing a job, I still had my doubts about going to Korea. It did not help that one of my acquaintances had returned a month after he had left, and he discouraged me from migrating given that I was already making good money in Nepal.&nbsp; But my wife suggested that I give it a shot since I had worked so hard for it. And if it really turned out not to be my cup of tea, I could always return. What did I have to lose, I thought, at least I would get to visit Korea. My job there was in an electrical company that made circuit boards. I worked all day, earned good money. In the evenings, I kept myself busy with my real estate business back in Nepal. I had learnt the tricks of the trade from fellow real estate agents back home, but at the time did not have the capital to invest.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250831020848_941e961e2045058f255ad89884b51faa7d2365c68236e5cbe573d63d769ac6c5.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250831020848_941e961e2045058f255ad89884b51faa7d2365c68236e5cbe573d63d769ac6c5" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Diaspora Diaries 72"> </figure>  In Korea, it helped that I had salary records that allowed me to get loans from financial institutions both in Korea and in Nepal. Ultimately, I started earning more from my real estate deals in Nepal than from my job in Korea. This was all thanks to my ability to take loans because of the EPS scheme. My wife has been managing the flower business while I was away. My finances grew stronger over the eight years I was in Korea. I paid off the loans that I had borrowed to buy land. But real estate did not satisfy me entirely. I wondered: what is my brand? What will I be known for? What is my contribution to society? Real estate is for wealth, but that is about it. I needed to sell one piece of land and use the revenue to start a venture. I took classes in business, and returned to Nepal six months ago and got back to my family’s ancestral roots in floriculture. In Nepal too, I am continuing the entrepreneurship training I had started in Korea with the Bridge International. Such exposure helps us reflect on our business such as our branding, vision, and proactive aspects like the importance of strong recordkeeping.&nbsp; I am now working to upgrade and expand my floriculture business. With a friend who is still in Korea I am building a cooling room to increase the shelf-life of flowers and other produce and set up a market in my village where others can sell their produce. Floriculture is our primary business, but it is seasonal and earns good money only during festivals like Tihar.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250831020848_a008ffeba13896e6918f68ff6e687c8fe11140d86a96f1ec11690547f2bcd415.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20250831020848_a008ffeba13896e6918f68ff6e687c8fe11140d86a96f1ec11690547f2bcd415" data-rendition-name="original" width="1280" height="720" loading="lazy" alt="Diaspora Diaries 72"> </figure>  So, I grow tomatoes to ensure year-round earnings. I also am engaged in other businesses like real estate and online shopping. I work round the clock in Nepal — a strong work ethic is something I picked up in Korea.&nbsp; My Korean bosses would work alongside us, that motivated us. I work just as hard in Nepal as I did in Korea. People here often ask me why I am pushing myself so hard. But making garlands comes easy to me, it is work my forebears were involved in. My childhood memories are about plucking flowers with my sister. I have a comparative advantage in this work. It comes naturally to me, it is easy and I enjoy it. And sometimes, if there are too many garlands to make, I can multitask while holding meetings. My fingers just fly. I am good at this job, but my wife is even better and faster.&nbsp; When there is too much load, we can also outsource the work. To be known as the flower guy would be great personal branding. The मखमली guy. Or the सयपत्री guy. I decided to come home for just this with a one-way ticket. “अब पासा: जाँदैन ल्हासा!” &nbsp;

The flower guy

An average Nepali could live 3.3 years longer if air pollution is reduced to meet the World Health Organization (WHO) guideline, according the annual <a href="https://aqli.epic.uchicago.edu/">Air Quality Life Index</a> 2025 published this week. The annual average concentration of tiny suspended particles in the air (PM2.5) in Nepal in 2023 was 38.3 μg/m3, nearly eight times the WHO standard, and 10% higher than 2022. Thirty years ago, air pollution in Nepal was half the current levels. WHO says particulate concentration above 5μg/m3 &nbsp;is<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/what-is-invisible-is-more-dangerous"> hazardous to health</a>.&nbsp; The most <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/why-is-the-air-in-bhaktapur-so-bad">polluted parts of Nepal</a> are along the Indian border in Rutahat, Mahottari, Dhanusha, Parsa and Bara districts in Madhes Povince where average life expectancy is reduced by as much as 5.3 years.&nbsp; People in Sarlahi, Siraha, Saptari, Morang, Sunsari, Rupandehi and Jhapa are also dying at least 4 years earlier. The Air Quality Index 2025 report which is published annually by the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago, says the figure is relatively lower for Kathmandu and Lalitpur at 2.6 and 2.4 years. After the Madhes, Kosi and Lumbini Provinces are the most polluted — especially in towns along industrial corridors and near the border. Karnali Province was by far the cleanest, followed by Sudurpaschim. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/epicentre-of-pollution">Epicentre of pollution</a>, Sonia Awale  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250828060856_136770cc84e114e8993af82e6a682c45d9458060e4ecf45f18e9f210673e1279.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250828060856_136770cc84e114e8993af82e6a682c45d9458060e4ecf45f18e9f210673e1279" data-rendition-name="original" width="753" height="584" loading="lazy" alt="AQLI map"> <figcaption>Potential gain in life expectancy from permanently reducing PM2.5 from 2023 concentration to the WHO guideline.</figcaption> </figure>  Air pollution is now the leading external<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/cleaner-air-longer-lives-0z0okfeu"> threat to life expectancy in Nepal</a>, exceeding both tobacco and diet-related risks, which reduced average lifespans of Nepalis by 1.9 years and 1.3 years respectively. The Air Quality Management Action Plan for Kathmandu Valley introduced in 2017 had identified vehicular emissions, brick kilns, and construction as the most polluting. It adopted measures to strengthen air quality monitoring, develop emissions inventory, and conduct impact assessments. Other major sources of emissions in Nepal include <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/no-smoke-without-fire-p7vb9dcj">forest fires</a>, crop residue and garbage burning as well as transboundary pollution from India and Pakistan. The report says India is the world’s most polluted country with the particulate concentration in 2023 at 41 μg/m3, an average resident in India could live 3.5 years longer if pollution levels were brought down to meet the WHO guideline. Residents of New Delhi on average would live 8.2 years longer if they breathed clean air. South Asia has some of the world’s most polluted cities. On some winter days, Kathmandu records the worst air quality in the world. In 2023, PM2.5 concentrations in South Asia declined by 9.6% between 2021 and 2022 due to lockdowns during the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic. ‘After a dip in 2022, particulate pollution in South Asia increased by 2.8% in 2023 — though it remained 7% lower than in 2021,’ <a href="https://aqli.epic.uchicago.edu/report/annual-update-2025">states the report</a>. ‘In the region’s most polluted countries, particulate pollution’s impact on life expectancy is nearly twice that of childhood, and maternal malnutrition and more than five times that of unsafe water, sanitation and handwashing.’ Elsewhere, unprecedented wildfires caused particulate concentrations to rise to levels not seen since 2011 in the United States and since 1998 in Canada. China also registered a decline in air quality, an increase of 2.8% in particulate pollution in 2023 relative to 2022, the first in a decade since the start of its ‘War on Pollution’ in 2014.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250828060856_94860b929d0fb161220ad72ecb76fcd29ba8e306bd6b844485a4171dadb6bb47.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250828060856_94860b929d0fb161220ad72ecb76fcd29ba8e306bd6b844485a4171dadb6bb47" data-rendition-name="original" width="754" height="501" loading="lazy" alt="AQLI line graph"> <figcaption>Annual average PM2.5 concentration in Nepal from 1998-2023.</figcaption> </figure>  Globally, the PM2.5 concentration in 2023 was 1.5% higher than in 2022, and nearly 5 times the WHO guideline. If global particulate pollution were permanently reduced to meet this guideline, an average person around the world would gain 1.9 years of life, adding 15.1 billion total life years to the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-future-is-older">global population</a>, the report adds. ‘Particulate pollution remained the greatest external threat to human life expectancy in 2023, with <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/air-pollution-is-more-dangerous-than-smoking">its impact comparable to smoking</a> and surpassing other major health risks,’ the report says. ‘Its toll on life expectancy is more than 4 times that of alcohol use, 5 times that of transport injuries or unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing, and more than 6 times that of HIV/AIDS.’ The report also highlights the need for open data, and says that accessible air quality information has translated into reduced particulate concentrations and gains in life expectancy in the United States, China, and Poland. Besides data, the report says, investment in monitoring and other air quality management infrastructure must be matched by political will, ambitious policies, capacity building, and sustained enforcement.