<img width="1756" height="1420" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114101124/6372094c9c7e80680e0b5533jpeg.jpg" alt=""/>This week it will be 26 years since the Maoists took up arms against the state, and 16 years since the war ended. Sher Bahadur Deuba was prime minister in 1996, just as he is now in an uneasy governing coalition with his erstwhile Maoist enemies. The war lasted ten years, leaving 17,000 dead. Unlike previous years, preparations for <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/20-years-wasted-in-war,2850%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank">‘People’s War Day’ </a>on 13 February are muted. This is to be expected -- the warring sides are now not just the state, but are members of the same governing coalition. Today, both Deuba and his Maoist coalition partner Pushpa Kamal Dahal want to brush the dirty business of war under the carpet. Two commissions set up to investigate war crimes are as good as defunct. Neither side wants to rake up the past, and hope that time will help erase memories of atrocities.  Maoist ideologue Baburam Bhattarai presented Deuba with a 40-point ultimatum a day before Valentine’s on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2015/02/16/making-war-on-the-day-of-love/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank">13 February 1996</a>. But even before the deadline ran out, guerrillas led by Nanda Kishore Pun and Barsha Man Pun attacked a police post in Rolpa district. Nanda Kishore <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2015/10/31/ex-guerrilla-is-vice-president/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank">Pun</a> is now Nepal’s vice-president, Barsha Man Pun has been minister several times and just returned after medical treatment in China. He may have been convicted of war crimes, but Agni Sapkota is Speaker of Parliament. Guerrilla commander Janardan Sharma is Finance Minister in the coalition government. In 1996, Deuba was too busy extinguishing a rebellion within his Nepali Congress party (sound familiar?) to respond to the spreading Maoist insurgency. When the police did react, it was with such indiscriminate violence that it the Maoists had no trouble with recruitment. Despite the 1990 transition to constitutional monarchy and the short-lived euphoria of democracy, the Maoists felt this would not end feudalism. They believed that it was only possible to end the ‘structural violence’ of the state by taking up arms against it. They faithfully followed the ‘protracted armed struggle’ tactics of Mao, who himself was a disciple of Sun Tzu.  They chose a remote and inaccessible region of the country where state neglect, inequity and social injustice were entrenched. But objective conditions for revolt were so ripe, the state’s response so ham-handed, that the insurgency spread like wildfire.The Maoists wanted to topple parliamentary democracy and constitutional monarchy, and were backed by forces inside and outside Nepal with the same goal. Emboldened by early gains, the Maoists used the momentum of the royal palace massacre of 1 June 2001 to take on the Royal Nepal Army a year later. The level of violence and casualties escalated – an average of 35 Nepalis were being killed every day at the hands of fellow-Nepalis.King Gyanendra’s ill-advised coup of 2005 backfired, and people came out on to the streets. Their demands were peace and democracy, in that order. A military stalemate on the ground, war weariness, and lobbying by external peacemakers led to a ceasefire. In the 16 years since, Nepal has gone from war to peace, from monarchy to republic, from Hindu state to secularism, but not much else has changed. Despite a progressive Constitution, social exclusion and injustice prevail, there is chronic instability, impunity, lack of accountability and governance failure. For those who still remember the horrors of war, the sacrifices have been squandered. Nepal is back to where it was in 1996 and even the political protagonists are the same people. In an election year, there is a move to rollback federalism, secularism and even monarchy. History is once more repeating itself as a farce.      Ever since the Shaktikhor tapes in which he boasted on candid camera to have hoodwinked the United Nations by inflating his party’s militia strength so he could pocket more compensation from the state, Pushpa Kamal Dahal has been known for playing to the gallery. The ongoing political tug-o-war over the US-supported Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) project has further exposed Dahal. The fact that he had co-signed (with Deuba) a letter to the MCC secretariat in Washington DC assuring it that he needed a few more months to build a consensus within the coalition for ratification by Parliament was diametrically opposite of what he was saying in public against the MCC. The political fallout has been damaging for PKD, even those sympathetic to his cause have taken him to task. Cartoonists and social media are having a field-day lampooning him. But Dahal has built such widespread public opinion against the project that he is now trying to portray himself as a staunch nationalist who stood up to American imperialism.   Dahal had two chances to serve as prime minister, and Bhattarai once. The two have fallen out long since, with Bhattarai now also threatening to split off from the Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP) because he cannot get along with another former Maoist Upendra Yadav. PKD’s Maoist party is now a shadow of its former fearsome self. Most of his staunchest comrades have abandoned him. Many may not even remember 13 February.

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13 February

<img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114101120/6372091c9c7e80680e0b5523jpeg.jpg" alt=""/>The date for local elections is now set in stone: 13 May to be held at once all over the country. But the path to voting booths is a political minefield.The five-party governing coalition is split right down the middle between the supporters and opponents of the American-funded Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) project. Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba’s Nepali Congress (NC) and the JSP are for it, while the Maoist Centre and the Unified Socialists are against.But neither side has the numbers if the MCC’s ratification is put to the vote in Parliament. They would both need the UML, which has been playing coy in the opposition even though its leader K P Oli had backed it when he was prime minister.There are no permanent foes and permanent friends in politics, and this is most evident at election time. In 2017, the Maoists forged an electoral alliance with the UML and swept the elections, but they failed to make good use of the two-thirds majority and spent the better part of the last four years bickering. One of the reasons for the split was Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Madhav Kumar Nepal using the MCC to bring down Oli.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-house-speaker-embroiled-in-mcc-row/">Nepal House speaker embroiled in MCC row</a>, Nepal TimesIt eventually led to the Communist alliance breaking up into Oli’s UML, Dahal’s Maoist Centre (MC) and Nepal’s Unified Socialists (US). And now, the American project threatens to split the governing coalition too.The MCC is now all mixed up with domestic election politics, and geo-strategic rivalry between the United States and China. Dahal’s MC and Nepal’s US, are both offshoots of a bigger party and are unsure of their electoral prospects if the coalition breaks. But if it does they can whip up the MCC as an election issue against Deuba and Oli.The NC is divided about an electoral alliance with coalition partners. Prime Minister Deuba wants to pass the MCC and hold the coalition together, but powerful NC figures want to field elections for all three levels on their own. The opposition UML has a strong local base, but will not be opposed to an alliance if it can garner more seats.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/mcc-damned-if-we-do-damned-if-we-dont/">MCC: damned if we do, damned if we don't</a>, Nepali TimesThis is why the MCC can be a deal-maker or deal-breaker. Only Deuba’s NC and JSP in the governing coalition are for the $500 million infrastructure project. Even within the JSP, Baburam Bhattarai and Upendra Yadav seem to have opposing views, with the former prime minister publicly supporting the grant. The Americans are piling on the pressure, saying they will wait till the 28 February cutoff date for House ratification, failing which they will pull out.Dahal and Nepal on the other hand, seem to be under Beijing’s spell. They have held several virtual meetings with top officials of the Communist Party of China who regard the MCC as a US strategic response to their own Belt Road Initiative (BRI).The media leak this week of a letter to the MCC co-signed by Deuba and Dahal dated 29 September 2021 has put the Maoist leader in hot water. Dahal was assuring Washington that he would work to form a consensus in the coalition, all the while opposing the MCC at home.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-cost-of-no-mcc/">The cost of no MCC</a>, Nepali TimesParliament needs to sit for a ratification vote, but the House has not had a proper session for six months. Oli has been blocking House proceedings because Speaker Agni Sapkota has not evicted breakaway members of the Unified Socialists. And Sapkota, who is a close Dahal confidante, once more pushed a Parliament session slated for 9 February by a week.This gives Deuba more time to cobble together numbers in the House for ratification before the American deadline. If Dahal and Nepal do not go along, he will have to get the UML on board – and that means the collapse of the coalition.In fact, the MCC has now become a bargaining chip for both the UML and the Maoist-Unified Socialists to use against Deuba. But the prime minister knows that Dahal and Nepal need an electoral alliance with him more than he needs them. The Maoists are said not to even have enough candidates to field in local government elections in May.Meanwhile, fringe Communist parties including the Netra Bikram Chand faction of the Maoists have resumed anti-MCC protests outside Parliament. And Mahanta Thakur of the smaller LSP is making an unrealistic bid for local elections to be postponed in Madhes Province by three months.The $500 million MCC compact will be used primarily to upgrade transmission lines to distribute electricity from existing and new hydropower plants in central and eastern Nepal, and also connect to a high-capacity line to Gorakhpur so Nepal can sell surplus monsoon electricity to India.The cost of no MCC equals a loss of Rs142 billion a year for Nepal by 2025 when generation capacity is expected to rise four-fold to 5,000MW. Much of it risks being wasted without the transmission lines to evacuate power. Read more:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/china-lobbying-against-mcc/">China lobbying against MCC</a>, Ramesh Kumar<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/missing-links-in-nepals-mcc-debate/">Missing links in Nepal's MCC debate</a>, Jeevan R Sharma and David SeddonAmerican lobbying for MCC went into high gear on thursday when US Assistant Secretary of State Donald Lu called Prime Minister Deuba, Dahal and Oli separately to warn that the US would recalibrate its relations with Nepal if they failed to ratify the compact.This followed a slew of visits by high-ranking MCC officials to Nepal in October-November last year to warn Nepal that the MCC contract was timebound.Lu is also reported to have a key message to all three leaders: failure to ratify the MCC would be seen in Washington as Nepal buckling under Chinese pressure. Left unsaid in that warning was that Nepal may have to face a similar predicament to Sri Lanka, which has faced ostracisation after rejecting its own MCC project that has led to the country sinking into a deep economic crisis.

Sonia Awale

The deal-breaker

<figure><img width="3600" height="2193" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161156/636d1f1e9c7e80680e0af44ajpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: RSS</figcaption></figure>After Nepal’s three major political parties held long overdue <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/unconventional-party-conventions/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">party conventions</a>,  it was the turn this week of the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre). But the question of who will lead a party that waged a ten-year war is a foregone conclusion.Pushpa Kamal Dahal, who had the nom de guerre ‘Prachanda’  when the Maoists waged their armed struggle from 1996-2006, is the undisputed leader, even through there are grumblings within the party that he is adhering to a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/pushpa-kamal-dahal-is-still-prachanda/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">cult of personality</a>.In fact, after hefty criticism on social media, the party on Monday took down a larger than life cutout of Dahal at the convention venue at the Nepal Academy in Kamaladi.On Sunday, the party’s 8th general convention was inaugurated in the presence of political leaders from across the political spectrum. Dahal’s former comrade-at-arms K P Oli of the UML, whom he unseated as prime minister earlier this year, did not attend – just as Dahal had skipped the UML’s convention in Chitwan last month.The assembly of Nepal’s third-largest political party, rebranded ‘general convention’ from ‘national conference’ only a day before the event was set to begin, has put Nepalis into an election frame of mind. Indeed, the speeches at the inauguration were all election pitches by Prime Minsiter Sher Bahadur Deuba of the Nepali Congress, Madhav Kumar Nepal of the Unified Socialists and Shankhar Pokharel, the UML General Secretary.A total of 1,631 delegates from across the country are present at the three-day convention, and will elect the Maoist party chairman, 15 office bearers, and a 299-member Central Committee. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/all-eyes-on-2023/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">All eyes on 2023</a>, Mukesh PokharelThe standing committee meeting that decided to rebrand the Maoist conclave as a general convention also changed the number of office bearers ahead of the convention,  which means that the leadership will include the chairman, one senior vice-chairman, six vice-chairmen, one general secretary, two deputy general secretaries, three secretaries and a treasurer. Earlier, the Maoists had a senior vice president and deputy secretary general.Even as the party increases its leadership seats, the Maoist convention, like the UML and NC <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepali-congress-party-time/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">conclaves that preceded it</a>, is set to reaffirm that Nepal’s politics will still be guided by <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/oli-sweeps-uml-party-polls/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">veteran politicians unwilling to give up their seats of power</a> -- at least until the next five years. The only outlier was the Hindu-right RPP, which replaced veteran Kamal Thapa with new comer Rajendra Lingden.Insiders have accused Dahal of repeatedly sidelining rivals within the Maoist party, but he is set to be elected party chair for another five years. Narayan Kaji Shrestha on Monday announced his bid for party leadership in a closed-session, but he does not stand a chance.Dahal has been so adept that removing rivals for leadership that many like Baburam Bhattarai and other comrades have left to join other parties.  In his remarks before the convention, Dahal struck an introspective tone while also urging party members to reflect on the Maoists’ journey, and the mistakes made from the armed insurgency to the present.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-rudderless-political-leadership/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal's rudderless political leadership</a>, Santa Gaha Magar “Party cadres as well as the Nepali people have begun to feel shortcomings of the part of the political leadership,” Dahal said before the convention, “I am morally responsible for these shortcomings, and I will begin with self-reflection.  All of us need to introspect.”Meanwhile, political leadership from other political parties made notable remarks on issues ranging from the much-contested Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) to social and transitional justice to  Maoist reunification.Prime Minister Deuba, recently re-elected party leader at his own NC general convention, maintained that the MCC would be ratified in Parliament soon, while seeming to pointedly address Dahal as he urged the detractors of the MCC to “actually read and be informed on the terms of the MCC before branding it as anti-national, traitorous, and against the interest of the country”. Deuba softened the blow, however,  by lauding Dahal’s “great contribution to Nepali politics … it was under your leadership that we held the election of the Constituent assembly and ultimately drafted our Constitution”.Read also: <a style="font-weight: 600;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/battle-lines-drawn-for-nepal-elections/">Battle lines drawn for Nepal elections</a>, Nepali Times<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/political-expediency-trumps-nepal-constitution/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Newly-minted CPN (Unified Socialist) Chairman</a> Madhav Kumar Nepal struck a similar tone as Dahal in his remarks saying that all the political parties need to introspect. “We have failed to address the people’s problems,” he said. “We need to reflect on where we went wrong.”Meanwhile, CP Gajurel, Vice Chairman of the CPN (Revolutionary Maoist), a breakaway faction of the Maoists formed under leader Mohan Baidya,  said that the time has come for Nepal’s Maoists to reunite. Rastriya Janamorcha vice-chairperson Durga Poudel, speaking about the rise in voices against republicanism and secularism, spoke of the importance of a united front to defeat political regression. JSP Chairman Upendra Yadav said that Nepal would not prosper until all forms of discrimination end, saying that issues of the emancipation of Madhesi, Adivasi, Janajati, Dalit and minority communities linked with the People’s Movement of 2006 were still neglected. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/is-democracy-too-expensive-for-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Is democracy too expensive for Nepal</a>?Even though the UML’s Oli did not attend the convention, he is said to have called Dahal on the phone. The UML General Secretary Shankar Pokharel regretted the failure to maintain the unity of the erstwhile Nepal Communist Party (NCP) which comprised the UML and the Maoists.On Monday, Dahal presented his political report titled The Path to Socialism in the 21st Century before the seven-member closed-session that includes Krishna Bahadur Mahara, Giriraj Mani Pokhrel, Ganesh Shah, Parshuram Tamang, Parshuram Ramtel, Purna Kumari Subedi and Rupa Shrestha Maharjan.The Maoist Chairman also spoke at length about the need to resume ’Prachandapath’— his guideline to Maoist cadres on achieving a successful revolution that was discontinued after the introduction of the peace process, as well as the need to achieve ‘scientific socialism’ through  a peaceful movement.“The document includes reviews of where we went wrong in the past in terms of ideas, organization, structure building, and strategy,” Dahal had said on Sunday.Indeed, analysts have previously attributed the failure of the Maoists to rise to national stature to Dahal’s disinterest in building any kind of functional institutional party structure.Read also: <a style="font-weight: 600; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/purchasing-power/">Purchasing power</a>, Ramesh Kumar

Shristi Karki

‘Tis the season of conventions in Nepal

<figure><img width="1364" height="740" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161124/636d17f99c7e80680e0ac798jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>Three months after <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/deuba-5/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">assuming office for the fifth time</a>, Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba on Friday finally expanded his Cabinet after reaching a power-sharing agreement with his coalition partners.Sixteen new ministers and two new state ministers were inducted to be later sworn in by President Bidya Devi Bhandari. The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/what-is-delaying-nepal-cabinet-expansion/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">appointments were delayed</a> by haggling over important ministerial portfolios between four of the five members of the coalition, and between factions within individual parties.The Cabinet expansion triggered a widening controversy this week as news emerged that Chief Justice Cholendra SJB Rana wanted two of his nominees to also be given ministries. This raised objections from a cross-section of the media as well from within the legal fraternity and Prime Minister Deuba’s own Nepali Congress (NC).Critics saw this as not just going against the accepted practice of not nominating unelected representatives to the Cabinet, but also because of what they characterised as a blatant violation of the doctrine of separation of powers.  In the end, Deuba only took in one of the candidates reportedly proposed by Chief Justice Rana: Gajendra Bahadur Hamal who is now Industry, Commerce and Supplies Minister.Hamal is the brother-in-law of Chief Justice Rana, and has also been a long-standing NC member in western Nepal, but was not a MP in the federal Parliament. Rana refuted allegations that he had proposed Hamal’s ministership, but most analysts believe that he was exacting a pound of flesh for his landmark Supreme Court ruling in May that led to Deuba replacing K P Oli as prime minister.The coalition partners have <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/government-in-installments/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">divided up the ministerial portfolios</a> such that the NC has eight ministers, and the Maoist Centre (MC) has five, while Upendra Yadav’s JSP and Madhav Nepal’s UML Unified Socialist (US) have four ministers each. (See list, below)The MC, US, and the JSP also have one state minister each.The expansion had been delayed due to competing demands within members of the five-party alliance, including from the Ram Chandra Poudel faction of Deuba’s own NC, as well as factions within Nepal’s UML-US party. And since this is going to be a coalition that will oversee elections in 2023, the parties all wanted influential ministries like home, foreign, communication, or those with the biggest budgets: education, agriculture, transport and physical infrastructure.While the MC had already sent its list of recommended ministers to Deuba on Wednesday, and the UML-US had reached an internal agreement, the JSP and NC were still finalising their list of ministers till early Thursday.Of the eight ministers from NC, Deuba has distributed the Law and Defence Ministries to Poudel loyalists: Dilendra Prasad Badu and Minendra Rijal respectively. Additionally, Uma Kanta Chaudhary from the NC’s Krishna Prasad Sitaula camp has been appointed Minister of Water Supply.The NC had already taken Home, Foreign, and Law Ministries when Deuba took office three months ago. Now it also has Ministries of Communications and Information Technology, Women, Children and Senior Citizens, and Industry, Commerce and Supplies.  <figure><img width="1260" height="686" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161124/636d17fb9c7e80680e0ac799jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The MC had also reserved two powerful ministries for itself soon after joining the coalition in May: Janardan Sharma at finance, and Pampha Bhusal at energy. The Maoists have now added Devendra Poudel at the Education Ministry, Sashi Shrestha at Land Management. The JSP has got the miniseries in agriculture, physical infrastructure and transport, forests and federal affairs. <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-post-breakup-politics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Madhav Nepal’s UML-US</a>, which joined the political alliance after Deuba’s controversial ordinance to amend the Political Parties Act allowed him to break away from former prime minister K P Oli’s UML, has the Health, Labour, Culture, Tourism and Urban Development Ministries. <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/political-expediency-trumps-nepal-constitution/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Deuba later repealed the ordinance</a> at great moral and political cost to make way for cabinet expansion because the move was seen to have bent the Constitution to fulfil his partisan interest. Among the new ministers appointed today, none are from the senior leaders of the parties which have nominated their second-rung leaders. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/pushpa-kamal-dahal-is-still-prachanda/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Pushpa Kamal Dahal</a> of the MC, Madhav Kumar Nepal of the UML-US have already become prime ministers before, and Upendra Yadav of the JSP has been minister many times in previous coalitions. This also means that Deuba has not had to appoint anyone deputy prime minister for reasons of seniority. Notable among the new ministers are the UML-US’ former firebrand student leader Ram Kumari Jhankri as Minister of Urban Planning. Besides her, four other ministers are women:  the NC’s Uma Regmi as Minister of Women and Children, Renu Yadav of the JSP as Minister of Physical Infrastructure and Transport, and the previously appointed Pampha Bhusal of the Maoist as Minister of Energy. And Sashi Shrestha of the RJM as Minister of Land Management. List of Ministers: Prime Minsiter:  Sher Bahadur Deuba, NC Home Ministry: Bal Krishna Khand, NC Communication and Information Ministry: Gyanendra Bahadur Karki, NC Energy, Water and Irrigation Ministry: Pampha Bhusal, MC Federal Affairs and Administration Ministry: Rajendra Prasad Shrestha, UML US Health and Population Ministry: Birodh Khatiwada, UML-US Finance Ministry: Janardan Sharma, MC Defence Ministry, Minendra Rijal, NC Water Supply Ministry: Uma Kanta Chaudhary, NC Foreign Ministry: Narayan Khadka, NC Physical Infrastrucutre and Transport Ministry: Renu Yadav, JSP Culture, Tourism and Civil Aviation Ministry: Prem Bahadur Ale, UML-US Law, Justice and Parliamentary Affairs Ministry: Dilendra Prasad Bandi Education Ministry: Devendra Poudel, MC Agriculture Ministry: Mahendra Rai Yadav, JSP Women, Children and Senior Citizens Ministry: Uma Regmi, NC Urban Development Ministry: Ram Kumari Jhankri, UML-US Industries Ministry: Gajendra Bahadur Hama NC (Uneleected) Forests and Environment Ministry: Ram Sahaya Yadav, JSP Land Management Ministry: Sashi Shrestha, MC Labour Ministry: Krishna Kumar Shrestha, MC Youth and Sports Ministry: Maheswar Jung Gahatraj, MC State Ministers PMO Office: Umesh Shrestha, NC Health Ministry: Bhawani Prasad Khapung, UML-US Education Ministry: Bodh Maya Kumari Yadav, MC

Nepal govt fills Cabinet after 3 months

<img width="800" height="436" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121144/636ce44d9c7e80680e0966a0jpeg.jpg" alt=""/>There are just so many layers of party and factional interests, alliances and dalliances, marriages of convenience and messy divorces, egos, ambitions, and personal vendetta involved, that it is difficult to delve beyond daily headlines about who stabbed whom in the back today.We must start with the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-1-party-2-central-committees-system/">central protagonist</a>, the man everyone seems to love to hate, Prime Minister K P Oli. He has proved all pundits wrong by surviving both medically and politically. This does not look like a man who has two kidney transplants—he appears stronger than ever.  He has outlasted <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/i-had-no-other-option-pm-oli/">relentless pressure</a> from the combined strength of rivals within the NCP and a constant media broadside, to unseat him. When cornered, he has used nationalism,  divided and ruled, used and discarded former comrades, and even dissolved the House and threatened elections to get his way.Oli is wily, but a statesman he is not. Had he been, he would have found other ways than <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/muscle-vs-muscle-in-nepal/">full-frontal attacks on rivals</a>, concentrating instead on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/its-broke-fix-it/">providing leadership</a> on issues that really matter to Nepalis – <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/in-a-state-of-disillusionment/">jobs, inflation, education, health and Covid impact</a>. He has spent all his time and energy running circles around <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dahal-nepal-hold-anti-oli-rally/">Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Madhav Kumar Nepal.</a>If anyone wanted to dismantle Nepal’s Communist movement, no one would have done a better job than Prime Minister Oli. He <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/unity-with-the-maoists-did-not-work-out/">cracked open the NCP,</a> then he got to work on his own UML, weeding out the disgruntled Nepal faction. Oli might have been seeking revenge on Nepal, but by sidelining him, he has effectively splintered the UML as well.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/efforts-to-cobble-back-the-uml/">Efforts to cobble back the UML</a>, Mukesh Pokhrel <img width="640" height="343" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121144/636ce44f9c7e80680e0966a1jpeg.jpg" alt="">Oli has become such a central figure that as factions of the four main parties jostle to find coalition partnerships, they are all divided depending on whether they support the prime minister or not. First, his UML itself is divided, with the Nepal faction behaving like an opposition party. Oli’s strategy now is to woo away Nepal loyalists like Jhalnath Khanal, whom President Bidya Devi Bhandari went to meet at his home last week.The Maoist Centre has also lost its senior comrades to Oli’s Cabinet: Ram Bahadur Thapa, Top Bahadur Ryamajhi and others. The party removed them from MP-hood on Tuesday, but cannot seem to decide what to do next. A Nepali Congress (NC) Central Committee meeting this week called for the resignation of Prime Minister Oli. But the meeting started five hours late because of a disagreement between Sher Bahadur Deuba and Ram Chandra Poudel on whether or not to join a coalition government led by Oli.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-crucible-of-fragile-coalitions/">A crucible of fragile coalitions</a>, Shekhar Kharel <img width="640" height="322" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121144/636ce4529c7e80680e0966a2jpeg.jpg" alt="">This indecision in the main opposition NC has put the third and fourth parties, the Maoist Centre and the Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP), in a bind. They do not have the numbers by themselves to challenge Oli. However, there is discord within the JSP also. And the cause is, once again, whether to support Oli or not. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/jsp-as-nepals-king-maker-party/">Party chair Mahantha Thakur</a> and Rajendra Mahato have publicly stated that they are inclined to work with Oli’s UML. But the JSP’s other leaders Upendra Yadav and Baburam Bhattarai are vehemently opposed.Because of the JSP’s swing vote in the House, Thakur has emerged as the kingmaker in coalition negotiations. The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/oli-vs-dahal-1-upmanship/">Maoist Centre</a> and the NC need the JSP to unseat Oli, and Oli himself needs the JSP to form the next government if the UML loses the support of the Maoist Centre.   <img width="640" height="399" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121144/636ce4549c7e80680e0966a3jpeg.jpg" alt="">However, even though Dahal threatened last week to pull the rug from under the UML, his Maoist Centre’s Standing committee meeting decided that time was not ripe to do so. The Maoists have 54 MPs, and if they withdraw support for the UML, which has 121 seats, Prime Minister Oli will have to seek a vote of confidence in the House. Oli will need 138 MPs on his side to win the vote, and will court the JSP with 34 seats or the NC with 63 seats. Dahal knows that if he withdraws support there is every likelihood that either Deuba or Thakur will side with Oli to form an election government. And Maoist leaders know that early elections will be disastrous for them.With all four parties tangled over their support and opposition to Prime Minister Oli, therefore, Nepali politics is hopelessly knotted up.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/house-of-cards/">House of cards</a>, Editorial

Untangling the knots

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121140/636ce3b49c7e80680e09666cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1280" height="720"/><figcaption>Illustration: DIWAKAR CHETTRI</figcaption></figure>The man of the week in Nepali politics is Mahant Thakur of the Janata Samajbadi Party. He is being courted by both the Maoist Centre, the Nepali Congress and the K P Oli-led UML.The country has been mired in political games, ever since the Supreme Court restored the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/i-had-no-other-option-pm-oli/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/i-had-no-other-option-pm-oli/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1617692393603000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEbsgI2tOFeX6qxx4SDeJa5y9JQ8Q">House of Representatives</a> on 23 February. However, after the Supreme Court delivered its verdict to resuscitate NCP (UML) and NCP (Maoist Centre) on 7 March, there has been an <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/muscle-vs-muscle-in-nepal/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/muscle-vs-muscle-in-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1617692393603000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGbn7z3rWp0xoNrgQkuRW0ziZR6sg">impasse</a>.The UML is the largest party in the House with 121 seats. In order to attain majority, it needs the backing of one of the other parties in the house-- the NC, Maoist Centre and Janata Samajbadi Party.The Parliamentary arithmetic is such that the UML needs the JSP to form a new government, or to survive a possible no-confidence vote. The Maoist Centre can only withdraw its support for the UML if it can get the numbers from the NC and the JSP.The NC itself requires the JSP MPs on its side to ally with the Maoist Centre. Which is why various political leaders have been making a bee line to the Mahant Thakur residence in Sano Thimi this past week.The UML is not in favour of forging a partnership with NC, the chief opposition in the House, with 63 seats in the lower house. The Maoist Centre which has 54 MPs, have repeatedly stressed on withdrawing their support to the government at any given time. In this scenario, the 34 seats held by the JSP will be enough to bail out the government.The leaders of the Oli faction say the possibility of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/a-kathmandu-spring/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/a-kathmandu-spring/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1617692393603000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEBu8negwV_Echty4HOzMRDmtnVDw">forming a government</a> with the JSP is “highly probable”. As per the demand by the JSP for the release of Resham Chaudhary, the government has not just constituted a dialogue team, but the team has already started deliberations. So, is the JSP all set to form a coalition with the UML? Mahantha Thakur  spoke to Nepali Times about his preference.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121140/636ce3b79c7e80680e09666djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="889" height="605"><figcaption></figcaption></figure>Nepali Times: You said recently in Janakpur that talks with Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli are progressing positively. Are the UML and the JSP inching close to an agreement regarding formation of a new government?Mahant Thakur: We have held several rounds of discussions with Oli. He has said he will not resign and if the motion of no confidence comes up, he will face it and if the result does not favour him, then he will go for a fresh mandate. We have put forward our demands. The Prime Minister has sought the opinion of the Attorney General. He is seeking legal advice to decide on what procedure to adopt. This is why I said the dialogue was positive, but no decisions yet.The Prime Minister has not given assurance to fulfill your demands?PM Oli has said he will do his best regarding our demands. He gave us three options. First would be participating in the government. Second, would be to support the government from outside, and third, if we do not go with them, then we should not go anywhere. Our friends lost lives in jail, fighting for their rights. They were injured and even physically disabled. We will decide what to do after these issues are resolved.What are your demands?Release of prisoners, Constitution amendment to address citizenship-language issues. Most of the leaders of today have either made it by taking up arms or have been through prison sentences. All of them have already received clean chit. Our politics has never been for power. Cases have been filed against us because we were demonstrating for our rights. In just 13 districts of Madhes, there are 292 registered cases against more than 1,200 people.Prachanda himself admits there are many cases against him, but those cases do not affect him. On the contrary, we are facing punishment for merely protesting to demand our legitimate rights. We had reached an agreement in writing with both Oli and Prachanda in the past on amending the Constitution, so that our demands could be addressed. But it was not implemented.Can Resham Chaudhary and others who were convicted by courts also be released in the name of political consensus?Resham Chaudhary was not present there on the day the Tikapur incident happened. He is not involved. The ones who were responsible for the massacre fled. Everyone is aware of the fact that Resham Chaudhary is innocent. He was victimised because where the incident occurred is a Tharu settlement.Which of the parties do you think will more likely back your demands?  So many things are best left unsaid until the time is right. In the present context, the Nepali Congress who was expected to lead the government has stepped back, so it is not possible for them to address our demands. The House constituted for five years was dissolved by PM Oli within three years. Even though the Supreme Court has reinstated the House, Prachanda is protesting against Oli. Technically, they still have not separated from Oli. So there is no ground for us to be confident regarding support.Has this indecision itself split your own party? It has been less than a year since our party was unified. We had to reorganise the ranks during the merger. When a party unifies, it is not possible to keep the posts from the previous parties intact. Some positions might be annulled. That causes tension in the party. But whatever the decision, we have agreed to forge ahead as a unified party. We had agreed on every individual providing their own inputs during deliberations and making unanimous decisions when the merger happened. We will not back unilateral decisions.Your name has also come up as a possible Prime Minister.  Madheshis are remembered only when there is a major crisis. People from the Madhes are brought to the forefront only when a mass is required during protests. During the premiership of Baburam Bhattarai, after Nepali Congress and UML declined to head towards the poll under his leadership, my name was suggested. Even now, the circumstance is dire and there seems to be public support, as well. But to actually be nominated as a Prime Minister, an agreement has to be reached in the House.Oli has not offered you to become the Prime Minister?No, he has said he will not resign.Have Nepali Congress and Maoists offered the JSP leadership of a new government?Both Congress and Maoist have sought our support. But they have not asked us to take leadership. During a meeting with us, Sher Bahadur Deuba said he would not table a no-confidence motion, but that if the offer of Prime Minister comes up, he would think about it. He offered to make a coalition government with our support, but we said that we would not form a coalition until our demands were met.By when will your party decide whom to support in the government? The first executive committee meeting scheduled for March could not be held due to inadequate preparations, as the political report to be presented at the meeting had not been finalised. More work is being done in the context of adjustment, so the meeting is yet to happen. Now that Holi is over, we will soon be fixing a date for the meeting.  It will discuss our stance on the current political stalemate, among other things.Full interview in Nepali in Himal Khabarpatrika: <a href="https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/122703" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/122703&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1617692393603000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFQK7-C8MrhW_J1iYVFxYDwDZ4Peg">https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/122703</a>

maoist-centre

13 February

The deal-breaker

‘Tis the season of conventions in Nepal

Nepal govt fills Cabinet after 3 months

Untangling the knots

JSP as Nepal’s king-maker party