<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131144/637238939c7e80680e0c7392jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640"/><figcaption>VECTOR FOR VIRUS: Stagnant pools of water, an ideal breeding site for the dengue mosquito, outside the Sukraraj Tropical &amp; Infectious Diseases Hospital at Teku, which on Thursday saw 250 new dengue patients. Photo: SUMAN NEPALI</figcaption></figure>It is not called ‘breakbone fever’ for nothing. Every bone, every muscle, every joint throbs with searing pain, as my body burned with high fever. It was not just for a day or two, it lasted weeks. The fever has finally subsided, but I am too weak even to walk.As a public health graduate myself, and someone who has covered health and environment for this publication, I am used to covering disease outbreaks. But my experience with Covid last year, and now being struck down by dengue, I became the story I was reporting on.It has been two months since the first cases of dengue surfaced in Kathmandu Valley. There was  an outbreak in 2019, and everyone thought it would pass.But this monsoon, there has been no letup. The virus has spread like wildfire, exposing just how woefully unprepared national and local governments are in preventing a disease that has no cure.The fever has now spread to all 77 districts with 10,000 patients in hospitals, many thousands more are recovering at home. Doctors have reported Covid patients with dengue complications.“We are at the peak of the dengue outbreak,” warns Sher Bahadur Pun, virologist at the Sukraraj Tropical &amp; Infectious Disease Hospital in Kathmandu which is seeing 250 patients a day. “I wish I had better news, we are at the mercy of the virus, and will just have to wait for winter.”But Kathmandu Mayor Balen Shah posted on Facebook asking the public not to wait for winter. He said money had been allocated for wards, many are carrying out  ineffective fumigation.Roshan Pokhrel, Secretary at the Ministry of Health says: “There is no cure for this. The only way is to search and destroy mosquito breeding grounds.”Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/state-of-malaise/">State of malaise</a>, Sonia AwaleBut that is easier said than done. Draining stagnant pools is too late, infected mosquitos are already inside homes. The female Aedes aegypti mosquito has ideal breeding areas during this wet monsoon, and climate change is letting the virus move to higher elevations.A female mosquito can lay up to 700 eggs even in a small pool of water, and can pass on the virus to its offspring. The mosquitos then can fly and infect in a radius of 300m, and they bite mainly in the daytime so that mosquito nets while sleeping are not really a deterrent. When the pools dry up, the larvae lie dormant and carry the virus next summer.“Preventing mosquito bites is still the priority, people need to know about effective repellents, especially the ones containing DEET (diethyltoluamide), recommended by WHO and CDC as the most active ingredient in insect repellents,” says Buddha Basnyat, a physician at Patan Academy of Health Sciences.Also important is to assure patients that although painful, dengue is rarely fatal, Basnyat assured me this week as I tried to regain my strength after two weeks of high fever.Last month, I was preparing a review of new studies about air pollution when I started feeling feverish. It got difficult to even sit at my desk. Wincing with pain, I barely met the deadline for page 1. At that point, air pollution seemed to be the least of my problems.The next two weeks are a blur. Fever that reached and stayed at 103°F for days on end, even touching my skin was painful, my eye sockets hurt. Paracetamol was the only medicine, and I needed cold presses to keep the fever down.One evening, the temperature hit 104°F and that was when I felt like I was hallucinating. With such high fever, sleep is impossible. I could not even toss and turn because of the pain.Eating was out of the question, even drinking water took enormous effort. Aside from the pain was the nausea and retching, which made the pain worse.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-dangers-of-the-dengue-virus/">The dangers of the dengue virus</a>, Tom RobertsonI cannot explain in words just how unpleasant dengue is. God forbid, you have to experience it yourself.The other experience of my convalescence was how the medical profession in Kathmandu from doctors to pharmacies are abusing this epidemic for unethical profit. There is no medicine for dengue, just paracetamol to numb the pain, water to replenish the body’s fluids, and rest – lots of it.My neighbourhood in Patan is a dengue hotspot, every household has at least one person who is sick. Some neighbours have been prescribed antibiotics, even though they are harmful to dengue patients.“Dengue is a viral infection, prescribing antibiotics does no good,” Buddha Basnyat told me. “They are prescribing Azithromycin used for typhoid and typhus. This misuse can actually lead to resistance against those diseases.” Virologist Pun at Teku Hospital says he is getting patients at his fever clinic with complications because of antibiotic intake. Patients buy antibiotics over the counter in the misguided notion that it will make the fever go down.The only effective prevention is to remove mosquito breeding grounds, but with the city being in the state it is in with garbage piles, open drains and potholes, it will need a mass awareness campaign with enforcement and fines as is done in other tropical Asian cities.Climate change means that mosquito vectors and their pathogens are moving up, and besides dengue we will also have to watch out for malaria or encephalitis in areas they were unheard of before.“Vector insects are moving from the southern plains to the northern mountains and with them the diseases they carry,” explains Pun.This means Nepalis may have to experience more deadly outbreaks before the most vulnerable people become a priority for the state.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/mosquitoes-move-up-mountains-as-the-earth-warms/">Mosquitoes move up mountains as the earth warms</a>, Sonia Awale-----------------------------<h2>Operation Search and Destroy</h2><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131144/637238959c7e80680e0c7393jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1000" height="699"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Dengue is a viral infection transmitted to humans through the bite of infected Aedes aegypti or Aedes albopictus mosquitos. Because there are four different serotypes, an individual previously affected can get even more severe dengue due to the body's auto-immunity.There is no cure for dengue. A vaccine is available, but it is recommended only for those previously infected. Patients can be tested for dengue with RT-PCR or enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA).Prevention is better than cure, and this is most true for dengue. Some 80% of dengue cases are asymptomatic, but for the rest it could be a very painful experience for up to 2 weeks.Painkillers are not advised, only paracetamol, up to 1,000mg at one time 3 times a day.The only antidote to dengue is to deprive the mosquito of stagnant pools of water to breed. It can be a plastic bottle cap in a garbage dump or the inside of a discarded tyre, anything is suitable for the female mosquito to lay her eggs.She can lay up to 700 eggs in their two-week lifetime. And if the mother is infected, all her offspring are born with the virus too. These mosquitos can fly and infect everyone in a 300m radius.Dengue was first detected in Nepal in 2004 on a visitor. Since then there have been cases every year with the biggest outbreaks in 2019 and this year. Once present in the environment, the virus can remain for years since the infected mosquito larvae can carry it into next summer.The only way to prevent dengue and other mosquito borne diseases like malaria and encephalitis is to declare Operaton Search and Destroy on their breeding grounds.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/climate-health-emergency/">Climate-health emergency</a>, Sonia Awale

Sonia Awale

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Dengue days are here to stay

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131144/637238919c7e80680e0c7391jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640"/><figcaption>VECTOR FOR VIRUS: Stagnant pools of water, an ideal breeding site for the dengue mosquito, outside the Sukraraj Tropical &amp; Infectious Diseases Hospital at Teku, which on Thursday saw 250 new dengue patients. Photo: SUMAN NEPALI</figcaption></figure>Although debilitating, fatality from dengue is rare. But the epidemic raging across Nepal’s cities has killed at least 12 people. The latest is a 29-year-old Nepali PhD student.The current outbreak comes on top of the Covid pandemic, and is a reflection of everything that is wrong with Nepal: political negligence, governance failure, misplaced priorities, lack of accountability, state apathy. Dengue is the symptom, the disease is political.A wetter than usual monsoon and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/mosquitoes-move-up-mountains-as-the-earth-warms/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">climate change</a> mean that dengue mosquitos have found ideal breeding grounds even in roadside pools outside the Sukraraj Tropical &amp; Infectious Diseases Hospital at Teku (above) which is seeing 250 new dengue patients every day.The virus-carrying female Aedes aegypti mosquito has a wide choice of places to lay her eggs: on water-filled bottle caps in garbage piles, inside discarded tyres, stagnant pools in open drains, and even balcony flowerpots. Kathmandu Valley is now a magnet for mosquitos.We could have learnt from the 2019 dengue outbreak when there were 17,000 hospital cases, and at least 6 fatalities. The monsoon is not over, and this year we have already  surpassed those numbers.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dengue-days-are-here-to-stay/">Dengue days are here to stay</a>, Sonia Awale“Unfortunately we learned nothing from the 2019 outbreak, we allowed infected mosquitos to breed everywhere,” says Sher Bahadur Pun, a virologist at the Clinical Research Unit at Teku. “The problem has magnified this year. The mosquitoes are now inside our homes, offices, and schools making it difficult to avoid infection.”The fact that local and central governments are gearing up to deploy a ‘search and destroy larvae’ two months into this large-scale outbreak is proof of slow-motion response. Fumigation is ineffective, and it is too late to drain breeding pools.The dengue virus can remain in the larvae of infected mosquitos for several years. So, the only way to prevent next year’s outbreak is to search and destroy breeding grounds now. Next monsoon will be too late. As with the garbage crisis and the air pollution emergency, dengue is problem for which the only solution is political will.Removing local breeding ground for the mosquito vector and spreading mass awareness about prevention is the responsibility of local governments. Federalism is supposed to make elected mayors accountable. They can start draining the swamps.For now, physician Buddha Basnyat’s advice is: “Avoid mosquitos, particularly at dusk and dawn, use the most effective repellent and don’t take antibiotics.”Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/as-covid-abates-nepal-sees-dengue-outbreak/">As Covid abates, Nepal sees dengue outbreak</a>, Anita Shrestha

State of malaise

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108141116/636a57619c7e80680e0547ddjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="1129"/><figcaption>BAD BITER: The dengue-carrying female Aedes aegypti mosquito (above) can now survive in higher altitudes and latitudes where it could not before because of climate change.</figcaption></figure>With over 8,000 reported dengue cases and an estimated 80,000 infections in five months, Nepal’s viral fever epidemic this year has gone viral. So far six people have died, and dengue has spread to higher altitudes where mosquito-borne diseases were unheard of.In Kathmandu Valley it has struck ministers, politicians, businessmen, even doctors and their families, but it has also drawn attention to tropical diseases migrating to the mountains. Agriculture Minister Chakrapani Khanal, renowned ophthalmologist <a style="background-color: #ffffff; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times%20Buzz/sanduk%C2%ADruit%C2%ADtilganga,2574" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sanduk Ruit</a> and Nepal Communist Party leader Bamdev Gautam are all down with fever, but the government’s response has been inadequate.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/like-a-sunburn-on-your-lungs-how-does-the-climate-crisis-impact-health/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">'Like a sunburn on your lungs': how does the climate crisis impact health?</a>, Emily Holden“Vector insects are moving up the Himalaya as warming increases, and so are the diseases they carry. Climate change is leading to changes in the geographic pattern of diseases,” said Meghnath Dhimal of the Nepal Health Research Council. His research has shown that mosquitoes do not just travel to higher altitudes in vehicles, but increasingly complete their lifecycles in what used to be colder places.Read Also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=32892&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tree-mendous</a>, Peter Gill<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=32877&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">It's a jungle out there,</a> Ajaya Dixit“Not just dengue: at any moment you can also have outbreaks of <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=19426#.XXolTC4zbIU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Chikungunya,</a> Japanese encephalitis and Zika in the mountains of Nepal due to global warming,” Dhimal says.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tz31WHLpMBo&amp;feature=youtu.beThis year’s unusually wet monsoon in Kathmandu Valley provided suitable breeding grounds for mosquitoes. The increased mobility of Nepalis has helped spread diseases like malaria, dengue and encephalitis to higher valleys. But it is climate change that has made disease-carrying mosquitoes themselves migrate to higher altitudes and latitudes.While mosquitoes and the microorganisms they carry now thrive in places that used to be too cold for them, extreme heat in the plains is killing off the insects. Recent studies have shown that dengue, malaria and other vector-borne infections are now found in areas where they were not before, and have disappeared in places where they were common.Read Also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=32887&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Trees, politics and greed</a>, Mukesh Pokharel<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=32836&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mustn't blame everything on Climate Change,</a> Editorial<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108141116/636a57639c7e80680e0547dejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="200" height="200">In 2014, ecologists at the University of Michigan found the first hard evidence that malaria travels to higher altitudes during warmer years. Another study by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine confirmed that the movement of malaria is temperature dependent.Read Also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=32864&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Third Pole is warming faster than expected,</a> Kunda Dixit<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=32805&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate-health emergency,</a> Sonia AwaleNepal has set a target to eliminate malaria by 2022, and the climate crisis adds to the challenge, while also stressing the need to expand existing health programs to districts previously unaffected by the disease.“We need a climate-relevant and sensitive health system so that we are prepared for more frequent outbreaks,” added Dhimal. “This means training healthcare personnel and ensuring a robust monitoring, evaluation and surveillance mechanism.”Ironically, the Kathmandu hospital that is supposed to control infectious diseases has become an epicentre for the spread of the virus because of overcrowding. When one 24-year-old banker based in Pokhara travelled to Teku to confirm her dengue status, she met many others like her from Dharan, Hetauda and Salyan.“Relatives waiting on their infected family members were also starting to get sick because the mosquitoes there were biting everyone,” she said.Read Also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=32872&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Protecting Kathmandu’s historic roofscape,</a> Anne Feenstra<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=32849&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tourism, aviation, and carbon</a>, Sanghamitra Subba<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108141116/636a57649c7e80680e0547dfjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="644">Dengue is spread when a female Aedes aegypti mosquito bites an infected patient and then bites healthy people within the following week. The mosquito can bite up to 10 different people before she has had her fill, which is why multiple members of the same family are falling ill.“We are receiving more than 500 cases per day and more than 70% of those I oversee have been tested positive,” said Sher Bahadur Pun, Chief of the Clinical Research Unit at Sukraraj Tropical and Infectious Disease Hospital in Teku. “Our response is not proportionate to the enormity of the crisis. We are risking our own health to treat infected patients.”A female Aedes mosquito lays from 500-1,000 eggs in her lifetime, and if infected, all her eggs are also infected from birth and the epidemic multiplies. The best strategy to stop this cycle is destroying mosquito habitat, experts say. Personal protective measures are equally important.“No one is safe since the mosquitoes are everywhere, from plains to the mountains,” said Prakash Prasad Shah of the Epidemiological Diseases Control Division. “Also, fogging is not effective — it only kills adult mosquitoes. We need search and destroy missions and this requires a collective effort.”After Dharan started an anti-dengue campaign by targeting the mosquito’s breeding spots, there has been a drop in the four-month outbreak there. Similarly, dengue cases in New Delhi fell 80% after 2015 due to a massive public awareness campaign.Read Also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=32856&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Summit leads packed UN agenda,</a> Thalif DeenOnly 10% of those infected with the dengue virus show symptoms and need further treatment. Very few suffer from complications due to haemorrhage and internal bleeding. Of the four types of dengue viruses, most Nepalis seem to be afflicted with the milder forms, either type 1 or 2.There is no vaccine or definite treatment for dengue fever yet. Patients are kept under observation and given supportive treatment for fever and with a blood transfusion if there is a drop in blood platelet count.This story is part of <a style="letter-spacing: 0.15px; background-color: #ffffff;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/world-joins-to-cover-climate/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Covering Climate Now</a>, a global collaboration of more than 250 news outlets to strengthen coverage of the climate story.

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Mosquitoes move up mountains as the earth warms

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

Nepal is graduating to become a developing country on 24 November 2026 after half-century in the Least Developed Country (LDC) category. By 2030, the country hopes to transition to middle-income status.&nbsp; Everone from Prime Minister K P Oli have boasted that this is a matter of national pride, and will have a multiplier impact on trade and economy.&nbsp; But will it make any difference to the average Nepali? Not unless improved governance <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/why-invest-in-nepal">spurs investment and creates jobs</a>.&nbsp; Countries need to meet at least two of the three criteria in two consecutive triennial reviews to be eligible for graduation from LDC. Nepal has consistently met the thresholds for the Human Assets Index (HAI) and the Economic and Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) in 2015, 2018, and 2021. But Nepal was recommended for graduation before meeting the per capita <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-great-income-divide">Gross National Income (GNI)</a> threshold of $1,306. “A major implication of LDC graduation is the loss of preferential market access available through Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) and other arrangements,” explains economist Sameer Khatiwada. “But over two-thirds of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-doesnt-produce-its-2-biggest-export-items">Nepal’s exports</a> are to India, and the preferential market access to India is through a bilateral trade agreement. This has nothing to do with our LDC status.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250815060832_f5eabe7628a8cdf84f33b25d7cef3c4dc8913a26d8e5b253ea52a36e176b8a85.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20250815060832_f5eabe7628a8cdf84f33b25d7cef3c4dc8913a26d8e5b253ea52a36e176b8a85" data-rendition-name="original" width="640" height="470" loading="lazy" alt="LDC graduation "> </figure>  Furthermore, a provision under the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) allows Nepal to export to India duty-free if the items are at least 30% value-added. Nepali traders take advantage of this by re-exporting edible oils without meeting that requirement, falsely boosting Nepal’s exports.“ Following graduation from LDC, the value addition threshold might increase to 40%,” says Kalpana Khanal of the Policy Research Institute. “This is supposed to work to our advantage, because on paper value addition inherently means <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/staying-home-to-create-jobs">job creation at home</a>.” But Nepal’s exports to other major destinations will face <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-and-the-us-india-tariff-tiff">tariff increases</a> with the graduation. A South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics and Environment (SWATEE) study shows that while tariff increase in the US market is relatively low (see page 5) it is considerably higher in Europe. The International Trade Centre (ITC) in a 2022 study also estimated that graduation could result in a 4.3% decline in Nepal’s projected exports, but this is excluding the impact of changes in ‘rules of origin’ provisions in preference-granting countries such as the UK and Europe.&nbsp; Nepal’s top export to these preference-granting countries is <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=1482">carpets</a>, and will not be impacted, but other items such as textiles and apparel will be heavily affected due to higher cost of production. The impact will felt mostly by small and medium enterprises which represent the largest share of exports to LDC-specific preference-granting countries. As for the service exports, Nepal never really made use of the World Trade Organization’s LDC services waiver anyway, hence the effect will be minimal, if any. There is also concern about Nepal’s graduation at a time when the global economy is topsy-turvy, amidst <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-point-in-us-india-relations">tariff wars and conflicts</a>. This affects Nepalis abroad directly and may impact <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/more-remittance-more-than-remittance">remittances </a>which hit $11 billion in 2024. In comparison, Nepal only received $350 million in foreign loans and grants last year.&nbsp; Tourism arrivals have finally reached pre-pandemic levels, but bad publicity about pollution, poor infrastructure and bureaucratic hurdles hinder further growth. Manufacturing continues to struggle, while hydropower and the IT sector have taken off.&nbsp; “Look at data -- <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/tourism-needs-a-new-push">tourism arrivals</a> are up, spending is up, IT exports are up, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/why-nepal-needs-to-restore-ev-tax-subsidy">EV sales </a>are up, Europe still needs 85-90 million skilled workers. We are sitting on $16 billion in cash reserves, our balance of payment, foreign exchange reserve, tax to GDP ratio, credit flow are all positive, we have to build on these factors,” says Sujeev Shakya of the Nepal Economic Forum. He adds: “Our mindset creates negativity to promote rent-seeking behaviour, but this cynicism will go away after 2026 with LDC graduation. We must deal with data, look at trends, and projects which will bring in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/from-the-nepali-press/why-there-is-no-foreign-investment-in-nepal">international investments</a>.” Khanal agrees that investment is not dependent on<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/backside/Nepal-not-the-least-developed-country,306"> LDC status</a>. The factors that that affect investment are policy stability, a strong legal framework, market potential and ease of doing business. She adds, “That is where our focus needs to be, and we need to retain <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/diaspora-diaries/migrant-worker-returns-to-create-work-at-home?fbclid=IwAR09xJfsClCwn8uRVAmz28CU658vdKpuyDwB_b1sNlvKtAFFnSldnA0JS2g">Nepalis with jobs at home</a> for our sustained growth.” After 2026, financing support from donors and aid agencies could be affected and Nepal will no longer be able to access Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) to adapt to the impacts of climate change. But the Global Environment Fund and Green Climate Fund will still be available.“ LDC status does not determine bilateral development aid, that is usually driven by broader <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/looking-beyond-two-boulders">geopolitical considerations</a>,” says Sameer Khatiwada. “The World Bank and Asian Development Bank, which provide concessional loans to Nepal, it is determined mainly by per capita income, not LDC status.” &nbsp;However, Nepal may lose some concessional terms for loans. Nepal is currently a lower-middle-income country as per the World Bank in the bracket for GNI between $1,036 and $4,045. The country is already receiving more loans than grants and in July the World Bank increased its interest rate on loans by 100% from 0.75 to 1.5%. “All this means that the impact of LDC graduation for Nepal might not be as earth-shattering as some tend to think. Countries that have recently graduated, such as Botswana and the Maldives, have shows that graduation is just a step in a country’s development path,” says Khatiwada. Sujeev Shakya also sees the glass as half full, explaining that LDC graduation is just a stepping stone if Nepal has the right policies in place. He adds, “Nepal’s biggest advantage is our<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/investing-in-people"> working age population</a> and we have investments coming in. These aided by how adaptive we are as a society are the very foundations on which Nepal will grow.”

Not poor, but not rich

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.