<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131144/637238939c7e80680e0c7392jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640"/><figcaption>VECTOR FOR VIRUS: Stagnant pools of water, an ideal breeding site for the dengue mosquito, outside the Sukraraj Tropical &amp; Infectious Diseases Hospital at Teku, which on Thursday saw 250 new dengue patients. Photo: SUMAN NEPALI</figcaption></figure>It is not called ‘breakbone fever’ for nothing. Every bone, every muscle, every joint throbs with searing pain, as my body burned with high fever. It was not just for a day or two, it lasted weeks. The fever has finally subsided, but I am too weak even to walk.As a public health graduate myself, and someone who has covered health and environment for this publication, I am used to covering disease outbreaks. But my experience with Covid last year, and now being struck down by dengue, I became the story I was reporting on.It has been two months since the first cases of dengue surfaced in Kathmandu Valley. There was  an outbreak in 2019, and everyone thought it would pass.But this monsoon, there has been no letup. The virus has spread like wildfire, exposing just how woefully unprepared national and local governments are in preventing a disease that has no cure.The fever has now spread to all 77 districts with 10,000 patients in hospitals, many thousands more are recovering at home. Doctors have reported Covid patients with dengue complications.“We are at the peak of the dengue outbreak,” warns Sher Bahadur Pun, virologist at the Sukraraj Tropical &amp; Infectious Disease Hospital in Kathmandu which is seeing 250 patients a day. “I wish I had better news, we are at the mercy of the virus, and will just have to wait for winter.”But Kathmandu Mayor Balen Shah posted on Facebook asking the public not to wait for winter. He said money had been allocated for wards, many are carrying out  ineffective fumigation.Roshan Pokhrel, Secretary at the Ministry of Health says: “There is no cure for this. The only way is to search and destroy mosquito breeding grounds.”Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/state-of-malaise/">State of malaise</a>, Sonia AwaleBut that is easier said than done. Draining stagnant pools is too late, infected mosquitos are already inside homes. The female Aedes aegypti mosquito has ideal breeding areas during this wet monsoon, and climate change is letting the virus move to higher elevations.A female mosquito can lay up to 700 eggs even in a small pool of water, and can pass on the virus to its offspring. The mosquitos then can fly and infect in a radius of 300m, and they bite mainly in the daytime so that mosquito nets while sleeping are not really a deterrent. When the pools dry up, the larvae lie dormant and carry the virus next summer.“Preventing mosquito bites is still the priority, people need to know about effective repellents, especially the ones containing DEET (diethyltoluamide), recommended by WHO and CDC as the most active ingredient in insect repellents,” says Buddha Basnyat, a physician at Patan Academy of Health Sciences.Also important is to assure patients that although painful, dengue is rarely fatal, Basnyat assured me this week as I tried to regain my strength after two weeks of high fever.Last month, I was preparing a review of new studies about air pollution when I started feeling feverish. It got difficult to even sit at my desk. Wincing with pain, I barely met the deadline for page 1. At that point, air pollution seemed to be the least of my problems.The next two weeks are a blur. Fever that reached and stayed at 103°F for days on end, even touching my skin was painful, my eye sockets hurt. Paracetamol was the only medicine, and I needed cold presses to keep the fever down.One evening, the temperature hit 104°F and that was when I felt like I was hallucinating. With such high fever, sleep is impossible. I could not even toss and turn because of the pain.Eating was out of the question, even drinking water took enormous effort. Aside from the pain was the nausea and retching, which made the pain worse.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-dangers-of-the-dengue-virus/">The dangers of the dengue virus</a>, Tom RobertsonI cannot explain in words just how unpleasant dengue is. God forbid, you have to experience it yourself.The other experience of my convalescence was how the medical profession in Kathmandu from doctors to pharmacies are abusing this epidemic for unethical profit. There is no medicine for dengue, just paracetamol to numb the pain, water to replenish the body’s fluids, and rest – lots of it.My neighbourhood in Patan is a dengue hotspot, every household has at least one person who is sick. Some neighbours have been prescribed antibiotics, even though they are harmful to dengue patients.“Dengue is a viral infection, prescribing antibiotics does no good,” Buddha Basnyat told me. “They are prescribing Azithromycin used for typhoid and typhus. This misuse can actually lead to resistance against those diseases.” Virologist Pun at Teku Hospital says he is getting patients at his fever clinic with complications because of antibiotic intake. Patients buy antibiotics over the counter in the misguided notion that it will make the fever go down.The only effective prevention is to remove mosquito breeding grounds, but with the city being in the state it is in with garbage piles, open drains and potholes, it will need a mass awareness campaign with enforcement and fines as is done in other tropical Asian cities.Climate change means that mosquito vectors and their pathogens are moving up, and besides dengue we will also have to watch out for malaria or encephalitis in areas they were unheard of before.“Vector insects are moving from the southern plains to the northern mountains and with them the diseases they carry,” explains Pun.This means Nepalis may have to experience more deadly outbreaks before the most vulnerable people become a priority for the state.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/mosquitoes-move-up-mountains-as-the-earth-warms/">Mosquitoes move up mountains as the earth warms</a>, Sonia Awale-----------------------------<h2>Operation Search and Destroy</h2><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131144/637238959c7e80680e0c7393jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1000" height="699"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Dengue is a viral infection transmitted to humans through the bite of infected Aedes aegypti or Aedes albopictus mosquitos. Because there are four different serotypes, an individual previously affected can get even more severe dengue due to the body's auto-immunity.There is no cure for dengue. A vaccine is available, but it is recommended only for those previously infected. Patients can be tested for dengue with RT-PCR or enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA).Prevention is better than cure, and this is most true for dengue. Some 80% of dengue cases are asymptomatic, but for the rest it could be a very painful experience for up to 2 weeks.Painkillers are not advised, only paracetamol, up to 1,000mg at one time 3 times a day.The only antidote to dengue is to deprive the mosquito of stagnant pools of water to breed. It can be a plastic bottle cap in a garbage dump or the inside of a discarded tyre, anything is suitable for the female mosquito to lay her eggs.She can lay up to 700 eggs in their two-week lifetime. And if the mother is infected, all her offspring are born with the virus too. These mosquitos can fly and infect everyone in a 300m radius.Dengue was first detected in Nepal in 2004 on a visitor. Since then there have been cases every year with the biggest outbreaks in 2019 and this year. Once present in the environment, the virus can remain for years since the infected mosquito larvae can carry it into next summer.The only way to prevent dengue and other mosquito borne diseases like malaria and encephalitis is to declare Operaton Search and Destroy on their breeding grounds.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/climate-health-emergency/">Climate-health emergency</a>, Sonia Awale

Sonia Awale

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Dengue days are here to stay

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131144/637238919c7e80680e0c7391jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640"/><figcaption>VECTOR FOR VIRUS: Stagnant pools of water, an ideal breeding site for the dengue mosquito, outside the Sukraraj Tropical &amp; Infectious Diseases Hospital at Teku, which on Thursday saw 250 new dengue patients. Photo: SUMAN NEPALI</figcaption></figure>Although debilitating, fatality from dengue is rare. But the epidemic raging across Nepal’s cities has killed at least 12 people. The latest is a 29-year-old Nepali PhD student.The current outbreak comes on top of the Covid pandemic, and is a reflection of everything that is wrong with Nepal: political negligence, governance failure, misplaced priorities, lack of accountability, state apathy. Dengue is the symptom, the disease is political.A wetter than usual monsoon and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/mosquitoes-move-up-mountains-as-the-earth-warms/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">climate change</a> mean that dengue mosquitos have found ideal breeding grounds even in roadside pools outside the Sukraraj Tropical &amp; Infectious Diseases Hospital at Teku (above) which is seeing 250 new dengue patients every day.The virus-carrying female Aedes aegypti mosquito has a wide choice of places to lay her eggs: on water-filled bottle caps in garbage piles, inside discarded tyres, stagnant pools in open drains, and even balcony flowerpots. Kathmandu Valley is now a magnet for mosquitos.We could have learnt from the 2019 dengue outbreak when there were 17,000 hospital cases, and at least 6 fatalities. The monsoon is not over, and this year we have already  surpassed those numbers.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dengue-days-are-here-to-stay/">Dengue days are here to stay</a>, Sonia Awale“Unfortunately we learned nothing from the 2019 outbreak, we allowed infected mosquitos to breed everywhere,” says Sher Bahadur Pun, a virologist at the Clinical Research Unit at Teku. “The problem has magnified this year. The mosquitoes are now inside our homes, offices, and schools making it difficult to avoid infection.”The fact that local and central governments are gearing up to deploy a ‘search and destroy larvae’ two months into this large-scale outbreak is proof of slow-motion response. Fumigation is ineffective, and it is too late to drain breeding pools.The dengue virus can remain in the larvae of infected mosquitos for several years. So, the only way to prevent next year’s outbreak is to search and destroy breeding grounds now. Next monsoon will be too late. As with the garbage crisis and the air pollution emergency, dengue is problem for which the only solution is political will.Removing local breeding ground for the mosquito vector and spreading mass awareness about prevention is the responsibility of local governments. Federalism is supposed to make elected mayors accountable. They can start draining the swamps.For now, physician Buddha Basnyat’s advice is: “Avoid mosquitos, particularly at dusk and dawn, use the most effective repellent and don’t take antibiotics.”Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/as-covid-abates-nepal-sees-dengue-outbreak/">As Covid abates, Nepal sees dengue outbreak</a>, Anita Shrestha

State of malaise

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108141116/636a57619c7e80680e0547ddjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="1129"/><figcaption>BAD BITER: The dengue-carrying female Aedes aegypti mosquito (above) can now survive in higher altitudes and latitudes where it could not before because of climate change.</figcaption></figure>With over 8,000 reported dengue cases and an estimated 80,000 infections in five months, Nepal’s viral fever epidemic this year has gone viral. So far six people have died, and dengue has spread to higher altitudes where mosquito-borne diseases were unheard of.In Kathmandu Valley it has struck ministers, politicians, businessmen, even doctors and their families, but it has also drawn attention to tropical diseases migrating to the mountains. Agriculture Minister Chakrapani Khanal, renowned ophthalmologist <a style="background-color: #ffffff; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times%20Buzz/sanduk%C2%ADruit%C2%ADtilganga,2574" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sanduk Ruit</a> and Nepal Communist Party leader Bamdev Gautam are all down with fever, but the government’s response has been inadequate.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/like-a-sunburn-on-your-lungs-how-does-the-climate-crisis-impact-health/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">'Like a sunburn on your lungs': how does the climate crisis impact health?</a>, Emily Holden“Vector insects are moving up the Himalaya as warming increases, and so are the diseases they carry. Climate change is leading to changes in the geographic pattern of diseases,” said Meghnath Dhimal of the Nepal Health Research Council. His research has shown that mosquitoes do not just travel to higher altitudes in vehicles, but increasingly complete their lifecycles in what used to be colder places.Read Also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=32892&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tree-mendous</a>, Peter Gill<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=32877&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">It's a jungle out there,</a> Ajaya Dixit“Not just dengue: at any moment you can also have outbreaks of <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=19426#.XXolTC4zbIU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Chikungunya,</a> Japanese encephalitis and Zika in the mountains of Nepal due to global warming,” Dhimal says.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tz31WHLpMBo&amp;feature=youtu.beThis year’s unusually wet monsoon in Kathmandu Valley provided suitable breeding grounds for mosquitoes. The increased mobility of Nepalis has helped spread diseases like malaria, dengue and encephalitis to higher valleys. But it is climate change that has made disease-carrying mosquitoes themselves migrate to higher altitudes and latitudes.While mosquitoes and the microorganisms they carry now thrive in places that used to be too cold for them, extreme heat in the plains is killing off the insects. Recent studies have shown that dengue, malaria and other vector-borne infections are now found in areas where they were not before, and have disappeared in places where they were common.Read Also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=32887&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Trees, politics and greed</a>, Mukesh Pokharel<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=32836&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mustn't blame everything on Climate Change,</a> Editorial<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108141116/636a57639c7e80680e0547dejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="200" height="200">In 2014, ecologists at the University of Michigan found the first hard evidence that malaria travels to higher altitudes during warmer years. Another study by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine confirmed that the movement of malaria is temperature dependent.Read Also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=32864&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Third Pole is warming faster than expected,</a> Kunda Dixit<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=32805&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate-health emergency,</a> Sonia AwaleNepal has set a target to eliminate malaria by 2022, and the climate crisis adds to the challenge, while also stressing the need to expand existing health programs to districts previously unaffected by the disease.“We need a climate-relevant and sensitive health system so that we are prepared for more frequent outbreaks,” added Dhimal. “This means training healthcare personnel and ensuring a robust monitoring, evaluation and surveillance mechanism.”Ironically, the Kathmandu hospital that is supposed to control infectious diseases has become an epicentre for the spread of the virus because of overcrowding. When one 24-year-old banker based in Pokhara travelled to Teku to confirm her dengue status, she met many others like her from Dharan, Hetauda and Salyan.“Relatives waiting on their infected family members were also starting to get sick because the mosquitoes there were biting everyone,” she said.Read Also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=32872&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Protecting Kathmandu’s historic roofscape,</a> Anne Feenstra<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=32849&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tourism, aviation, and carbon</a>, Sanghamitra Subba<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108141116/636a57649c7e80680e0547dfjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="644">Dengue is spread when a female Aedes aegypti mosquito bites an infected patient and then bites healthy people within the following week. The mosquito can bite up to 10 different people before she has had her fill, which is why multiple members of the same family are falling ill.“We are receiving more than 500 cases per day and more than 70% of those I oversee have been tested positive,” said Sher Bahadur Pun, Chief of the Clinical Research Unit at Sukraraj Tropical and Infectious Disease Hospital in Teku. “Our response is not proportionate to the enormity of the crisis. We are risking our own health to treat infected patients.”A female Aedes mosquito lays from 500-1,000 eggs in her lifetime, and if infected, all her eggs are also infected from birth and the epidemic multiplies. The best strategy to stop this cycle is destroying mosquito habitat, experts say. Personal protective measures are equally important.“No one is safe since the mosquitoes are everywhere, from plains to the mountains,” said Prakash Prasad Shah of the Epidemiological Diseases Control Division. “Also, fogging is not effective — it only kills adult mosquitoes. We need search and destroy missions and this requires a collective effort.”After Dharan started an anti-dengue campaign by targeting the mosquito’s breeding spots, there has been a drop in the four-month outbreak there. Similarly, dengue cases in New Delhi fell 80% after 2015 due to a massive public awareness campaign.Read Also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=32856&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Summit leads packed UN agenda,</a> Thalif DeenOnly 10% of those infected with the dengue virus show symptoms and need further treatment. Very few suffer from complications due to haemorrhage and internal bleeding. Of the four types of dengue viruses, most Nepalis seem to be afflicted with the milder forms, either type 1 or 2.There is no vaccine or definite treatment for dengue fever yet. Patients are kept under observation and given supportive treatment for fever and with a blood transfusion if there is a drop in blood platelet count.This story is part of <a style="letter-spacing: 0.15px; background-color: #ffffff;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/world-joins-to-cover-climate/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Covering Climate Now</a>, a global collaboration of more than 250 news outlets to strengthen coverage of the climate story.

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Mosquitoes move up mountains as the earth warms

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;