When Nepal opened up for trekking and mountaineering, it restricted foreigners from travelling to trans-Himalayan districts like Mustang and Dolpo because of the cultural sensitivity and limited ecological carrying capacity of the land.
Later in 1992, they were opened up, but unlike other trekking areas visitors had to pay the Annapurna Conservatioon Area Project (ACAP) $500 for 10 days and an additional $50 per day for any extra duration.&nbsp;
Since then, Nepal has become a federal republic and there is now a highway connecting Pokhara to Jomsom and Lo Manthang right up to the Chinese border, and locals say it does not make sense to charge such high fees anymore, saying it is impacting on the local economy.
“The permit fee for the restricted areas is too high and we would get a lot more tourists and raise local incomes if it was revoked,” argues Tashi Norbu Gurung, the elected chair of Lo Manthang Rural Municipality. “This is severely affecting our livelihoods and businesses.”
With support from local residents, hoteliers and village councils, Gurung along with the chairs of adjoining rural municipalities recently submitted a petition to Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Home Minister Narayan Kaji Shrestha, Chief Minister of Gandaki Province Surendra Pandey and Minister of Forest and Environment Birendra Kumar Mahato to remove Upper Mustang from the list of restricted areas.
Most of the fee goes to ACAP, and local municipalities complain that they do not really benefit from the extra charges on tourists.&nbsp;
Says Rinjin Gurung of the Waragung Muktikshetra Rural Municpality: “Because these are at present restricted areas, tourists cannot easily access them, and this has affected us all negatively.
Of the total 71,707 tourists who visited Mustang in 2022/23, only 3,388 visited Upper Mustang, paying the ACAP premium fee. Trekking traffic to the region has been climbing to nearly pre-Covid levels with more than 3,000 tourists in the first nine months of 2023. The number of Nepali visitors to the region has also grown exponentially, with most travelling by motorcycle or jeep from Pokhara.
“It is important that we set up fees and create a system that is appropriate for tourists of all classes and economic status,” says Vikal Sherchan member of the Gandaki Provincial Assembly. Indeed, there is fear that opening up Upper Mustang to mass tourism can lead to some of the negative effects seen in other parts of Nepal with unregulated building, high costs, theft of antiquities and an impact on the region’s fragile ecology.
Upper Mustang in Nepal’s trans-Himalaya is a major tourist attraction with arid and desolate mountain landscapes, ancient Tibetan culture with monasteries and chortens and places of historical importance. In fact, in a lot of ways Mustang is geologically, culturally and linguistically closer to Tibet than Nepal.
Many visitors to Mustang are also Hindu and Budhist pilgrims who come worship at the Muktinath shrine. Trekkers often traverse the Thorung La pass from Manang to Mustang, for which they do not have to pay the extra ACAP fee.&nbsp;
New high-end hotels have now come up in Jomsom, Lo Manthang and along the trail in between. Some of the investors in these hotels feel lifting the premium fee will increase the footfall in Upper Mustang.
Adapted from RSS
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/comings-and-goings-in-mustang">Comings and goings in Mustang</a>, Shrijan Pandey

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Call to scrap Upper Mustang tourist fee

<img width="600" height="430" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107141112/636904a79c7e80680e037d35jpeg.jpg" alt=""/>With a six-lane highway joining the city to Kohalpur, plans to upgrade to a Metropolis, international flights starting soon from its expanded airport, a railway station connecting to India, and new hotels and casinos coming up, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=5885#.W4fVwM4zaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepalganj</a> feels like a town on the move.Adding to the excitement is the city’s can-do mayor, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=10282#.W4J_8GaB1TY of the RPP" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-wplink-url-error="true">Dhawal Shumsher Rana</a>, who was re-elected last year and immediately set about improving Nepalganj’s crumbling roads, drainage and its poor image.The city suffered an economic setback when it lost out to Butwal as the capital of Province 5, but Mayor Rana is lobbying hard to declare Nepalganj a Metropolitan City by merging with Kohalpur.“Come back in a few more months, you will see a different Nepalganj,” says Rana proudly as he supervised a road widening on a recent rainy Saturday.Feeding the boom is Nepalganj’s emergence in recent years as one of the most popular gateways to <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=5392#.W4fXhs4zaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kailash in Tibet</a> for Indian pilgrims. (See map). Devotees from all over the world travel to one of Hinduism’s holiest sites, and the easiest route is through Nepalganj. Pilgrims also fly via Kathmandu and Lhasa, cross at Kerung, or go via India.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GprdlTsLdck&amp;feature=youtu.beThe Nepalganj route entails taking a plane to <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/northwestern-tip-of-nepal-Humla,3430" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Simikot</a> , changing to a helicopter to Hilsa on the Tibet border, and then driving by SUV to the sacred Lake Mansarovar. Half the 15,000 Indian pilgrims to Tibet every year take the Nepalganj route, and this week, hotels here were full of pilgrims waiting for flights to Simikot delayed by bad weather.“Indians prefer to go via Nepal because the trip is smoother, the routes through India are very basic,” says Yash Thakur of Explore India Tours, which organises pilgrimages for Hindus from India, South Africa, Mauritius, Fiji, the United States and Britain. “If there is more support from Nepal, we can take 20,000 more pilgrims to Kailash via Nepal every year.”Prakash Shrestha of Explore Kailash has been arranging pilgrimage packages since 1996, and says if infrastructure bottlenecks are fixed, a lot more Indian tourists would prefer the Nepal route because they can also visit Pashupati or <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/going-to-jomsom-in-the-off-season,3878" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Muktinath</a>.“There aren’t enough helicopters, the weather delays flights, Nepalganj has good hotels, but there are few facilities in Simikot or Hilsa,” says Shrestha.There is also anticipation in Nepalganj about Buddha Air flights from Delhi starting in January which are expected to bring Indian tourists to the city’s new casinos, as well as Indian trekkers to Rara and <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/Stairway-to-heaven-Dolpo-trek" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dolpo</a>, which have air connections from Nepalganj.“Nepalganj is going to be a multiple hub. We are going to expand Nepalganj airport, extend the runway and apron and upgrade the terminal building,” says Mayor Dhawal Rana, “and in a few years we will also have a railway station connecting to India.”

Kunda Dixit

Nepalganj gets moving

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107101156/6368d63f9c7e80680e031472jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1020"/><figcaption>Minister of Foreign Affairs Pradeep Kumar Gyawali and Indian Ambassador to Nepal Manjeev Singh Puri sends off India PM Narendra Modi, who was in a two-day state visit to Nepal, at Kathmandu Airport on Saturday. Pic: RSS</figcaption></figure>Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi wrapped up his two-day whirlwind visit to Nepal on Saturday, flying from the plains to the mountains, worshipping at famous shrines, meeting politicians, and giving four rousing speeches. But observers said the visit was high on symbolism, but not much on substance.By offering prayers at the Janaki temple, Muktinath and Pashupati, Modi has been able to woo Hindu voters ahead of India’s general elections next year. He has also sent across a message to critics at home that his ‘neighbourhood first’ policy is not failing.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/campaigning-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Campaigning in Nepal</a>, Editorial<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/a-political-pilgrim/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A political pilgrim</a>, Om Astha RaiModi was campaigning in Nepal — to woo voters at home, and also to restore Nepal-India relations badly bruised by the Blockade.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107101156/6368d6429c7e80680e031473jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3600" height="2400"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>But what did Oli gain? He perhaps got Modi’s promise that New Delhi will not create trouble for his government, and will support him even if Maoist Chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal parts ways. He has also established himself as a national leader in Province 2 where he was widely despised.However, observers note, Oli has lost much of the political capital he had made out of standing up to India. He has lost the nationalist credentials he garnered during the Blockade and elections. Oli is a Modi-fied man.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/modis-himalayan-marathon/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Modi's Himalayan marathon</a>, Om Astha RaiModi’s visit to a shrine near the China border was a message to Beijing: Kathmandu is still within New Delhi’s sphere of influence. Modi also persuaded Oli to felicitate him on behalf of Nepalis in Janakpur and Kathmandu despite widespread resentment among most Nepalis for the blockade.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107101156/6368d6459c7e80680e031474jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="800"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Early this week, a group of civil society members met with Foreign Affairs Minister Pradeep Gyawali, urging the government to felicitate Modi only on the government’s behalf. Bibeksheel Sajha party put up black banners at its headquarters, saying Nepalis have not forgotten the blockade yet. On social media, Nepalis asked Modi to apologise for what they say was a crime against humanity.But neither Modi nor Oli paid any attention to what Nepalis were saying and went ahead with the program. Instead, police tore down banners at Bibeksheel Sajha and arrested students staging a hunger strike to put pressure on Modi to say sorry to Nepal.After two days of political meetings and pilgrimages, Modi has been able to send across multiple messages: he cares for Hindus, is loved by not just Indians but also Nepalis, Kathmandu is closer to New Delhi than to China and Nepal-India ties have been reset.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107101156/6368d6489c7e80680e031475jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="814" height="528"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>However, except a reiteration of commitment to push forward Kathmandu-Birganj railway, inland waterway and agriculture and a few token grants, Modi’s Nepal visit has yielded no substantial results.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/dam-it-its-all-about-the-water/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dam it, it's all about the water</a>, Om Astha Rai<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/oli-modi-launch-arun-iii/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Oli-Modi launch Arun III</a>When Foreign Affairs Minister Gyawali was in Janakpur early this week to take stock of preparations for Modi’s visit, he told journalists that railway, waterway and agriculture agreements will be signed in Kathmandu. But there was just another understanding on these issues, but not a single agreement. The two PMs did lay the foundation stone of Arun III by switching on a remote in Kathmandu, but that project has been struggling to get going for ten years.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107101156/6368d64b9c7e80680e031476jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="900"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Modi began his second day by flying to Muktinath, a sacred Hindu-Buddhist shrine at an altitude 3,710m. Clad in a red downjacket, he performed a special puja at the holy site,  where he is believed to have meditated as a young pilgrim in 1979.Trekkers were barred from going up to and descending from Thorung La, a popular pass for hikers, for security reasons. Modi wanted to visit this temple near the China border and  Janakpur where he arrived on a direct flight from New Delhi on Friday.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107101156/6368d64e9c7e80680e031477jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="682"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>This was his third visit to Nepal in four years, and he had wanted to do this pilgrimage during the 2014 SAARC Summit. But the Nepali Congress government at the time had refused to allow Modi to make the side trip, fearing that it would polarise Nepalis at a time when the country was gearing up to promulgate the new Constitution.Analysts say Modi took that rejection as a personal affront, and tried to prevent Nepali leaders from pushing through the Constitution in September 2015 citing Madhesi resentment. He also imposed a five-month blockade on Nepal, which was devastated by a 7.8 magnitude earthquake.In the wake of the Indian blockade, Prime Minister K P Oli had played the nationalism card to the hilt, signing a trade and transit treaty with China reducing Nepal’s dependence on India. An alliance between his UML party and the Maoists won a near two-third majority, riding the nationalism wave.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107101156/6368d6509c7e80680e031478jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="682"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>But Modi seems to have been able to charm Oli out of China’s embrace, inviting him to New Delhi last month, and visited Nepal at Oli’s invitation just five weeks later.Modi was not expected to apologise directly for the hardships created by the blockade. But in every speech he made in the past two days he praised the Nepali people for their resilience after the earthquake, and for conducting three elections last year to set a new federal democratic structure in place. Modi left with many soundbites: “I am not a Prime Minister, I am a Pilgrim Minister.” Or “Nepal and India are not just two countries, they are two democracies.”Only time will tell if his charm offensive this time has worked, like it did in his 2014 address to Parliament.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107101156/6368d6539c7e80680e031479jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1080" height="743"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>

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A Modi-fied Oli

<h2>The Indian prime minister’s visit to Nepal sparks hope, dismay and speculation</h2><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107101152/6368d60f9c7e80680e031461jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3264" height="2448"/><figcaption>Indian security personnel in Janakpur on Thursday in preparation for Prime Minister Modi's visit to Janaki Temple. Pic: Ishwar Chandra Jha</figcaption></figure>The Indian prime minister’s visit to Nepal sparks hope, dismay and speculationAs Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi transits Kathmandu between two <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/geo-political-pilgrimage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">political pilgrimages</a> to Janakpur and Muktinath this weekend, there is hope, dismay and even confusion in Nepal.In <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/janakpur-to-janakpur/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Janakpur</a>, where Modi will worship at Sita’s birthplace and be felicitated, there is unprecedented excitement. Not since Jawaharlal Nehru inaugurated the Kosi Barrage in 1961 has an Indian leader visited Nepal’s Tarai. The citizens of Province 2 hope that Modi’s decision to take a direct flight from New Delhi to Janakpur on Friday will be a big boost to the Madhesi demand for amendments to the Constitution.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/geo-political-pilgrimage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A political pilgrim</a>, Om Astha RaiIn Kathmandu, where Modi will spend two nights and meet political figures, many are dismayed that their mayor is felicitating an Indian leader who <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/autopsy-of-a-blockade%20,2863" target="_blank" rel="noopener">blockaded Nepal</a> for five months in 2015. Angry posts on Nepali social networks have demanded that Modi apologise for what they call a ‘crime against humanity’.People are widely circulating an appeal on Twitter and Facebook to observe a 10-minute blackout in Kathmandu on Friday evening, as a symbolic protest to remind citizens of the dark days of the Blockade two years ago.And, there is confusion about whether the Modi visit reflects a course correction in India’s policy towards Nepal. Some think New Delhi realised it went too far, pushed Nepal closer to China, and it is now trying to reset bilateral ties.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/campaigning-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Campaigning in Nepal</a>, Editorial But others argue that Modi either doesn’t know about the level of anger in Nepal, or doesn’t care. He is more interested in using his pilgrimage to Hindu shrines in Nepal just ahead of Karnataka elections as a photo opportunity during the silent period before voting on Sunday in the staunchly-Hindu south Indian state.MP Radheshyam Adhikari believes  Modi’s visit indicates New Delhi’s realisation that the Blockade was a blunder. But analyst Shreekrishna Aniruddh Gautam thinks otherwise, and that  a Modi apology is highly unlikely.Gautam says: “Modi’s visit is less about resetting diplomatic ties with Nepal and more about his own domestic electorate politics, and geopolitics.”MP Anil Jha of the Madhes-based RJP-N asks sardonically: “There was no course in Indian policy towards Nepal, so how can there be a correction? Still, the visit has symbolic significance.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107101152/6368d6129c7e80680e031462jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3600" height="2400"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Whether offering prayers at Janaki Temple in Janakpur, worshipping at Muktinath shrine near the China border or visiting Pashupatinath in Kathmandu,  whatever Modi does here is aimed directly at the home audience.Modi will also be trying to allay criticism  at home that his policy has pushed Nepal into China’s embrace. Last year, Modi was able to resolve the Doklam standoff diplomatically, but China is said to be still camped in what India claims to be Bhutanese territory.Rahul Gandhi of the opposition Congress in India is using Doklam as an example of Modi’s diplomatic failures. Some say Modi’s recent visit to China was mainly to ensure that there is no new border flare-up in the Himalaya before Indian general elections next year.Bhaskar Koirala of the Nepal Institute of International and Strategic Studies thinks that Nepal is no longer an effective buffer between India and China because of better connectivity and trade.“India would naturally be concerned about the extent to which Nepal begins to tilt towards China,” Koirala says.In Kathmandu, Modi will likely try to make a repeat performance of 2014 when he turned around Nepal’s public opinion with a rousing speech in Nepali to Parliament. He will try to turn on the charm offensive once again.Modi will flag off the Janakpur-Ayodhya bus service, unveil a plan to connect the birthplace of Sita with the Ramayana Circuit. He is also likely to announce a special package for Janakpur’s development.In Kathmandu, Modi and PM KP Oli will remotely lay the foundation stone of Arun III. The two leaders are also expected to sign agreements on railway, agriculture and inland waterway projects.But these will not be enough to heal the bitter memoriers of the Indian Blockade on the Nepali psyche. Nepal’s former ambassador to India Bhekh Bahadur Thapa who is a member of the India-Nepal Eminent Persons Group says: “The only way Modi can begin to win back the confidence of Nepalis is to deliver on his past promises.”

Modi’s Himalayan marathon

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107101152/6368d5c19c7e80680e031444jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="1050"/><figcaption>DRESS REHEARSAL: Indian Ambassador Manjeev Singh Puri is briefed on Wednesday by the pilot of an Indian Air Force helicoper that rehearsed a landing in Janakpur where Indian PM Narendra Modi will be welcomed on 11 May at the start of his visit to Nepal. PHOTOS: Ishwar Chandra Jha</figcaption></figure>When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits Nepal next week for the third time since becoming PM, he will not only aim to reset bilateral ties but also send signals to the Madhes, his own electorate back home, and to China.Modi will fly to Janakpur from Patna probably in an Indian Air Force helicopter on 11 May. He had wanted to enter Nepal overland, but security agencies in both countries are still assessing whether that would be a safe option.Modi will perform a puja at Janaki Temple before receiving a civic felicitation at Ranga Bhumi ground. Prime Minister KP Oli will also fly down to Janakpur to welcome Modi.In Janakpur, there is a sense of déjà vu as preparations get underway for the visit. During the November 2014 SAARC Summit in Kathmandu, Modi wanted to visit Janakpur and Muktinath. The city had been spruced up with welcome gates along the main roads (see photo, inset) when the Janakpur part of the trip was cancelled.The Sushil Koirala government did not allow Modi to cross into Nepal overland and address a mass rally in Janakpur. When Nepal insisted that Modi just worship at Janaki Temple, and not address a mass meeting, he cancelled his trip.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107101152/6368d5c49c7e80680e031445jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="1197"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Many believe that Nepal-India relations began to sour after that because Modi took the cancellation as a personal affront. Janakpur-based analyst Bhogendra Jha says, “If Modi was allowed to visit Janakpur in 2014, Nepal-India ties would not have sunk so low.”Between that aborted trip and the one next week, Nepal-India ties have gone through a roller-coaster. Modi tried to arm-twist Nepali leaders into delaying the Constitution, and when that failed he imposed a Blockade on Nepal. Anti-India sentiments ran high in Nepal, undoing gains of Modi’s successful first tip to Nepal in 2014. KP Oli, in turn, used anti-India nationalism to propel himself to power in last year’s elections.“It all began from Janakpur, but it could also end in Janakapur,” Jha adds. “Modi’s connection to Janakpur marks the end of an unwarranted chapter in Nepal-India relations.”However, many Nepalis on social media are still calling for Modi to apologise for the Blockade on an earthquake-devastated country in 2015. They also oppose the idea of a civic reception for a leader responsible for wrecking Nepal’s economy.But there is a different tone in Janakpur. Many there say the Blockade is a thing of the past and it is time to forget, forgive and move on. Janakpur’s mayor Lal Kishore Sah says: “If you keep raking up the past, you can never prepare for the future.”But many say Modi is not the kind who forgets and forgives. The importance that he has attached to Janakpur during his two-day visit shows that he wants to show Nepal’s Madhesi people he has not abandoned them. He may announce aid for a ‘Ramayana Circuit’ that will also help him with Hindu voters in Indian elections next year.NC leader Abhishek Pratap Shah says: “From Janakpur Modi wants to give a message to the Madhesi people that he could not fully champion their cause in the past but will do so in the future.”Modi is also trying to use his Nepal visit as an opportunity to send a strong message to Beijing by flying to worship at Muktinath close to the Chinese border.The Oli government is still pro-Chinese and believes Beijing has increased its influence in Nepal,” Shah adds. “From Muktinath, Modi will be signalling China that India is still a dominant player in Nepal.”

Janakpur to Janakpur

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

The magic 138

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