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82 in २०८२

While Nepal’s calendar enters the eighties on Saturday 13 April, this is a good time to pause and think about what might lie ahead for Nepal and the world in Gregorian year 2081.
The world is too late to limit the global average temperature to 1.5°C. By 2081, ocean expansion and heat stress will lead to mass migration to higher latitudes and altitudes. Multi-disasters, conflicts and food shortages will stalk the planet.
At the present rate of birth rate declines, China’s population will have shrunk to 850 million. By 2081, there will only be half as many Koreans as there are today. Nepal’s population pyramid will have inverted by then, and total inhabitants will decline to 22 million.
The outmigration of Nepalis from the mountains to the plains will likely start reversing in the next few decades. The Gulf states will be too hot to work in. Half the remaining Himalayan glaciers will have melted off, reducing the dry season flow of our rivers.&nbsp;
These are changes we know are coming, so we might as well prepare for them. Alas, the world is still in business as usual mode. Most politicians do not recognise the urgency of the crisis, and are haggling over who gets to sit in the best chair on the tilting deck of the Titanic.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/year-of-reckoning">Year of reckoning</a>, Editorial
India, China, US
Meanwhile, 2081 BS will see elections in the two biggest democracies, India and the United States, that will have a bearing on the region and the world. Proximity means Nepal will be impacted more immediately by the outcome in India, where a third term as Prime Minister for Narendra Modi seems to be a foregone conclusion in marathon elections from 19 April to 1 June.
Nepal is already feeling the spillover of India’s election fever as shown by Hindu-Muslim riots in Sunsari last week, and the anti-secular pro-monarchist rally in Kathmandu on Tuesday.&nbsp;
Under the Hindu-supremacist BJP since 2014, India has slid into dangerous authoritarianism, intolerance and systematic persecution of minorities. There is now not even a modicum of decency as opposition leaders are thrown into jail on trumped up charges, and their vilification amplified by a pliant mass media.
The West looks away as the BJP tightens control and squelches the media and democratic values, since India’s 8% growth is important for trade. New Delhi is even excused for breaking sanctions against Russia. India’s economic engine will pull Nepal along, but its politics could tear the intricate ethnic fabric of our society.&nbsp;
Over on the other side of the planet, Joe Biden and Donald Trump are readying for a second face-off. Much like in Nepal, US politics also seems to be populated by tired old men reluctant to let go.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/the-f-word-9yauh6kl">The F word</a>, Editorial
Much like how photographs from Vietnam swayed domestic public opinion against the war, the daily bombardment of images of children maimed and killed in Gaza has turned US public opinion against Biden. His administration parachutes food into Gaza, while shipping more bombs to Israel.
The war may prolong Benjamin Netanyahu’s hold on power in Israel, but it may cost Biden a second presidential term. Trump will be no better on Palestinian independence, and his threat to pull out of NATO is already ringing alarm bells in Europe.&nbsp;
Trump is campaigning on an anti-immigrant platform, and exaggerating the threat on the Mexican border. He wants immigrants only from ‘nice’ countries, and not from ‘shitholes’ like Nepal.
America’s domestic polarisation, Trump’s rejection of multilateralism, Biden’s unpopularity on the world stage because of Gaza, and panic in Europe over losing the American security umbrella to confront Putin’s Russia has geopolitically weakened the West. This means that for Nepal, the looming presence of next door India and China will be felt even more than before.
It was the West that traditionally pushed for human rights, transitional justice, democracy and the free press in Nepal. Now, we have to contend with two giant neighbours who do not believe in those concepts, and have in fact undermined them within their own societies.&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/at-home-and-abroad">At home and abroad</a>, Editorial
Here and now
Back in Nepal, the government has selected more than 400 Nepalis to work in Israel as caregivers. Nepalis continue to enlist in the Russian Army even as the Labour Ministry prepares to lift the ban on work permits in Russia.
The new UML-Maoist-led coalition has reaffirmed the transient nature of Nepali politics. Political allies become rivals overnight, and the RSP on whom many Nepalis had pinned their hopes is behaving like the mainstream parties it once vowed to hold to account.&nbsp;
Public disillusionment with Nepal’s party politics has emboldened populist and nationalist forces that are set on dismantling the 2015 secular, federal republic constitution.
Such political disarray will not help us in Nepal face the challenges wrought by the climate crisis in the decades ahead.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/nepal-s-corruption-carousel">Nepal’s corruption carousel</a>, Editorial

New year, same difference

<figure><img width="1661" height="1136" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111144/63721c269c7e80680e0bd47bjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Cadenza Collective</figcaption></figure>Mark your calendars. <a href="http://drumjatra.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Drum Jatra 2022: Nepal’s Percussion Festival </a>returns on 11 April with yet another bang. After a Covid hiatus of more than two years, the festival is back for a week-long in-person live concerts with a sonorous confluence of traditional and modern musical instruments, to the heartbeat of percussion. The slogan for this year is ‘Rhythms of Unity in Diversity,’ and the festival will feature a colourful spectrum of percussion instruments performed by top drummers from Nepal and international artists. <figure><img width="1929" height="1935" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111144/63721c2a9c7e80680e0bd47cjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Dhimey Girls</figcaption></figure>“Drums are an integral part of any composition, whether it is jazz or Brazilian or classical,” says artistic director Navin Chhetri, organiser of the popular annual Jazzmandu festival in earlier years.“The special part about this edition is that we are able to organise it this year, especially after Covid, and to finally bring the diverse music to our community.” <figure><img width="2050" height="1210" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111144/63721c2e9c7e80680e0bd47djpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Folkmandu Society</figcaption></figure>Indeed, drums will be on the forefront of the weeklong concerts, incorporating both solo and featured elements of percussion music. Sultry pre-monsoon Kathmandu will reverberate from 11 to 17 April to the feet-stomping beats of tabla, dhimey, drums, singing bowl, didgeridoo, damphu, tungna, and sitar across six venues in Kathmandu Valley, seamlessly blending the unique musical tradition and culture from around the world. <figure><img width="6000" height="4000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111144/63721c329c7e80680e0bd47ejpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Nimesh Kapali</figcaption></figure><figure><img width="3770" height="3213" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111144/63721c379c7e80680e0bd47fjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Himalayan Duo</figcaption></figure><figure><img width="6000" height="4000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111144/63721c3b9c7e80680e0bd480jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Mangal Man Maharjan</figcaption></figure>Sounds from the Himalaya include Tamba Group, Kiran Shahi, Folkmandu Society, Dhimey Girls, Navin Chhetri, Cadenza Collective, Ashesh Rai, Bijay Shrestha, Mangal Man Maharjan, Salil Subedi, Kashish Shrestha and Nimesh Kapali. Also playing are Eduardo Mendonça from Brazil and Guillermo Martín-Viana from Spain, adding a versatile sonic texture to the genre-bending polyphony of jazz, afro-funk, Nepali folk, Indigenous and classical music.  <figure><img width="417" height="556" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111144/63721c3f9c7e80680e0bd481jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Eduardo Mendonça</figcaption></figure><figure><img width="1200" height="1200" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111144/63721c419c7e80680e0bd482jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Guillermo Martín-Viana</figcaption></figure><figure><img width="6000" height="4000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111144/63721c459c7e80680e0bd483jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Salil Subedi</figcaption></figure><figure><img width="6000" height="4000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111144/63721c499c7e80680e0bd484jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Navin Chhetri</figcaption></figure><figure><img width="1467" height="1365" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111144/63721c4d9c7e80680e0bd485jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Kiran Shahi</figcaption></figure>Keeping with the tradition of the festival, the first three days will offer free workshops by experts for aspiring musicians on the numerous percussion instruments and styles at the Kathmandu Jazz Conservatory, Jhamsikhel on 11 – 12 April and Music Room in Naxal on 13 April. The finale will take place at the Yala Maya Kendra at Dhokaima Café in Patan.DRUM JATRA 2022 Cadenza Collective &amp; Double DrummingAfro- Nepali Funk12 April, Tuesday 8:00pm to 10:00pm Jazz Upstairs, Lazimpat Rs 700The opening night concert of Drum Jatra 2022 will feature Cadenza Collective &amp; Double Drumming, creating infectious grooves with a spectacle of diverse percussion instruments at the one and only, Jazz Upstairs!SOUNDS OF BRAZILEduardo Mendonça Quartet &amp; Samba Drumming Ensemble13 April, Wednesday 7:30pm to 9:30pmEvoke, Jhamsikhel Rs 1250Featuring Eduardo Mendonça from Bahia, Brazil, the evening will resound with the rhythms and melodies of Brazilian music along with the Samba Drumming Ensemble.DRUM JATRA JAM AT MOKSH Cadenza Collective/ Afro-Nepali Funk+Multi-Drummers &amp; Visiting Artists 14 April, Thursday 8:00pm to 10:00pmMoksh, Jhamsikhel Rs 700Cadenza Collective will bring their unique sound of Afro-Nepali Funk, and a special Drum Jatra jam session with multi-drummers and visiting guest artists to Moksh.EK TAALMusical Fusion &amp; Subtle Sounds of PercussionFeaturing: Mangal Man Maharjan, Himalayan Duo, Eduardo Mendonça, Snare Drum Quartet, Tabla Quartet 15 April, Friday 7:00pm to 9:00pmKantipur Temple House, Jyatha, Thamel Rs 1100 The beautiful and intimate setting of the Kantipur Temple House will come alive with the delicate and charismatic colours of diverse percussion instruments and the musical fusion of Brazilian melodies with Nepali folk rhythms, jazz fusion with sitar &amp; drums, and the enchanting sound of gongs &amp; singing bowls. <figure><img width="2713" height="1414" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111144/63721c509c7e80680e0bd486jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Tamba Group</figcaption></figure><figure><img width="715" height="706" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111144/63721c539c7e80680e0bd487jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Kashish Shrestha</figcaption></figure>GROOVIN AT SUPPER CLUBEDUARDO MENDONCA QUARTET / CADENZA COLLECTIVE &amp; DOUBLE DRUMMINGBrazilian Music &amp; Afro-Nepali Funk 16 April, Saturday  7:30pm to 9:30pmSupper Club, ThamelRs 950A night of grooves and moves for your ear and booty with West African influenced rhythms from the shores of Rio to the bustle of Kathmandu.DRUM JATRA FINALEFeaturing: Tamba Group(Women’s Tamang Selo Ensemble), Dhime Girls, Folkmandu Society, Eduardo Mendonça Quartet, Cadenza Collective &amp; Double Drumming, Salil Subedi, Snare Drum Quartet, Tabla Quartet, Samba Drumming Ensemble.17 April, Sunday 7:00pm to 9:30pmDhokaima Cafe, Yala Maya Kendra, PatanRs 1000 The Drum Jatra Finale will showcase some of the top highlights of the festival performers with high energy drumming traditions spanning from traditional Nepali drums to Brazilian rhythms and Afro-Nepali Funk at Yala Maya Kendra's ambience-filled courtyard. <figure><img width="1440" height="966" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111144/63721c569c7e80680e0bd488jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Bijay Shrestha</figcaption></figure>DRUM JATRA 2022 WORKSHOPSKathmandu Jazz Conservatory, Jhamsikhel11 April, Monday10:00 am – 11:00 am | Healing with Singing Bowls – Mangal Man Shrestha11:15 am – 12:15 am | Introduction to Madal Rhythms and Techniques – Naresh Prajapati1:00 pm – 2:00 pm | Brazilian Rhythms on the Drum Set – Navin Chhetri12 April, Tuesday10:00 am – 11:00 am | Tabla Accompaniment and Understanding Tihais – Bijay Shrestha11:15 am – 12:15 am | Brazilian Rhythms Section – Eduardo Mendonça1:00 pm – 2:00 pm | Essence of Drum Solos – Navin ChhetriMusic Room, Naxal13 April, Wednesday10:00 am – 11:00 am | Fundamentals of Brazilian Percussion – Eduardo Mendonça11:15 am – 12:15 am | Time, feel/ dynamics and progressive styles on the modern drum kit – Kiran Shahi

The drumbeat of Kathmandu

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108111152/636a35b59c7e80680e0482c7jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2106" height="1404"/><figcaption>Photos: MONIKA DEUPALA</figcaption></figure>The annual Sindoor Jatra in Thimi has been observed with much fanfare. Devotees carried idols of different deities in 32 palanquins across the ancient city while singing and dancing to traditional drum and dhimay music. As all the palanquins came together, the whole town was painted red with participants applying vermilion to each other in good jest. Once the deity Ganesh was moved to Taleju, the crowd quickly swarmed to Bode to witness the famous tongue-piercing.Celebrated on the second day of the Nepali month Baisakh by the Newar community in Madhyapur Thimi, the festival also marks the advent of the spring season.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108111152/636a35b89c7e80680e0482c8jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2106" height="1404"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108111152/636a35bc9c7e80680e0482c9jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2106" height="1404"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108111152/636a35bf9c7e80680e0482cajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="4096" height="2730"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108111156/636a35c39c7e80680e0482cbjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="4096" height="2730"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108111156/636a35c79c7e80680e0482ccjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2487" height="1658"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108111156/636a35ca9c7e80680e0482cdjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2106" height="1404"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108111156/636a35cd9c7e80680e0482cejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2106" height="1404"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108111156/636a35d09c7e80680e0482cfjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2106" height="1404"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108111156/636a35d39c7e80680e0482d0jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2498" height="1665"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108111156/636a35d69c7e80680e0482d1jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2052" height="1368"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108111156/636a35d99c7e80680e0482d2jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2052" height="1368"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108111156/636a35dd9c7e80680e0482d3jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2052" height="1368">Also: <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/mycity/2015/04/16/paint-it-red/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Paint it red</a>, Gopen Rai

Paint the town red

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.

Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

French citizen Louis arrived in Nepal for the first time earlier this year, planning to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/the-abcs-of-a-winter-trek-in-nepal">trek the Annapurna Circuit </a>before heading down to Bardia to hopefully catch a glimpse of some<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-counting-its-tigers"> tigers</a>. Before he began his journey from Besisahar, Louis (who only revealed his first name) had imagined breathing crisp mountain air, and following the melodious gurgle of the Marsyangdi.&nbsp; Instead, he had to breathe fumes and dust all the way to Chame. Louis says he masked his face with a handkerchief: “It was not what I expected, this is not right.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080304080_f03fce1527cf8a63178e4e82589a1a7096c8cfa28893ca4a5f7fe82d91a6e38a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="2025080304080_f03fce1527cf8a63178e4e82589a1a7096c8cfa28893ca4a5f7fe82d91a6e38a" data-rendition-name="original" width="2419" height="1814" loading="lazy" alt="Manang trails NT 1"> </figure>  Many other trekkers are similarly disappointed as roads have been built along what used to be <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/a-walk-back-in-time-chandragiri-hatiban">walking trails</a>. Manang and Humla are the last remote regions in the Himalaya to be connected to the national road network. &nbsp;Construction of the 87km Besisahar-Manang road began in 1994, but was stalled during <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/14-years-after-conflict-no-closure-in-nepal">the Maoist conflic</a>t, and finally finished in 2012.&nbsp; Most of it has not yet been blacktopped, and sections have been carved out of vertical cliff faces, making them treacherous. But it has allowed road access to Manang, a journey that previously took a week on foot.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080304084_32b3ca875a0df9f1dd42dbe915e6f6a2cd4f2e53f1cf2d3ee5cbdb3435905000.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="2025080304084_32b3ca875a0df9f1dd42dbe915e6f6a2cd4f2e53f1cf2d3ee5cbdb3435905000" data-rendition-name="original" width="2400" height="1505" loading="lazy" alt="Manang trails NT 1"> </figure>  While the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-road-out-of-nepal">road has improved access</a>, it has impacted on<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/trekking-in-the-time-of-climate-change"> trekking tourism </a>— the mainstay of Manang’s economy. The number of tourists visiting the scenic valley behind the Annapurnas grew from 21,245 in 2023 to 30,866 in 2024. The Annapurna Circuit is known for unique sights like <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=9194">Tilicho</a>, one of the highest lakes in the world, the Thorong La pass that connects Manang to Mustang, and the valley’s own rich cultural heritage. Thorong La at 5,416m is the highest hiking pass in the world, and was used by locals for trade with Mustang before it became a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/lift-restrictions-on-upper-mustang">popular trekking route</a>. &nbsp; “For guests, the excitement of reaching Thorong La is now overshadowed by their disappointment of having to journey through dusty roads to get there,” says Manang lodge-owner Ongma Gurung. “That is the complaint we get the most.” <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/tourism-that-treads-lightly-on-the-land">Local tourism </a>operators are trying to get the government to build alternative foot trails. But there have been delays due to a lack of budget.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080304084_c5f76e398182785bb17846a148e3ca89de5687b4623580f8e2d725a7a287edfa.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="2025080304084_c5f76e398182785bb17846a148e3ca89de5687b4623580f8e2d725a7a287edfa" data-rendition-name="original" width="2419" height="1762" loading="lazy" alt="Manang trails"> </figure>  The Naso Rural Municipality has identified other routes along the Annapurna Circuit in Chyamche, Tal, and Khotro so trekkers can bypass heavy vehicles involved in the construction of the Manang-Marsyangdi Hydropower Project. “But the local government cannot do everything,” admits the chair Dhan Bahadur Gurung. “And for leaders in Kathmandu, Manang is out of sight and out of mind.” Munindra Jung Gurung represents Manang in the Gandaki Provincial Assembly, and says he has raised the issue in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/pokhara-s-tourism-woes">Pokhara</a>. He is hopeful there will be a hearing. To be sure, the road is not all bad news. Locals benefit, the number of visitors has grown, and trekkers can now also save time and use it to explore <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=5960">side valleys in Manang</a>, visiting the villages like Nar and Phu. Annapurna Conservation Area (ACA) chief Rabin Kadariya concedes that the road to Upper Manang was crucial to connect the remote region with the rest of Nepal, but adds: “We have built an alternative trail connecting Talgaun, and we will consult local communities about their priorities on other hiking trails.”&nbsp;

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