Few ‘development’ projects have been as controversial in recent years as the proposed <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/does-nepal-need-a-4th-international-airport">Nijgad International Airport (NIA)</a>, set to be built by logging thousands of hectares of forest.
Prime Minister K P Sharma Oli as Prime Minister revived the project in 2017 as a once-in-a-generation opportunity to catapult Nepal’s economic development. Experts, researchers and activists who questioned the destruction of a valuable transboundary ecology were trolled on social media as being ‘anti-development’.&nbsp;
In the years since, Nepal has been rocked by a never-ending series of corruption scandals involving top politicians and corporate houses. Two much-hyped new international airports in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/does-nepal-need-a-4th-international-airport">Bhairawa </a>and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/pokhara-nepal-s-new-aviation-gateway">Pokhara</a> built at great cost were inaugurated amidst much fanfare, and have turned out to be <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/15-points-for-and-against-nijgad-airport">white elephants</a>.
At a time when Nepal’s economy is in crisis, the NIA project has been exposed as being a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/does-nepal-need-a-4th-international-airport">multi-billion dollar heist</a> by a cross-party alliance. Despite <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/building-nijgad-come-what-may">increasingly vocal public opposition</a> to the project, Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal has said ‘site clearance’, which means logging the forest, will be completed this fiscal year. Tourism Minister Sudan Kirati is following through.
Nepal was never supposed to build the NIA on its own. It was designed as a BOOT (Build, Own, Operate, and Transfer) model, in which an international group would manage it for 25 years before transferring it to Nepal.&nbsp;
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Earlier government efforts at site clearance had been <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/building-nijgad-come-what-may">halted by the Supreme Court</a> until an agreement with a developer was secured. In 2020, the tourism minister under the UML, Yogesh Bhattarai, announced that such a developer had been secured.
However, this was a boldfaced lie that was <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/zurich-airport-international-opts-out-of-nepal-project">exposed in an exclusive report</a> in this paper. The minister was confronted about who was to build the airport, but there was no answer. Nepal’s political establishment then declared that the government would build it on its own, and committed $3.5 billion to a ghost airport.
A litigation around the project’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/megalomania-kleptomania">Environment Impact Assessment (EIA)</a>, which turned out to be a copy and paste job from a hydro power project, lingered.
Nijgad is not an airport project, it is a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/megalomania-kleptomania">scam to log thousands of hectares of hardwood forests</a>. Even as an airport, it presents risks to the economy, ecology, food and water security.
Nepal’s bickering politicians are all united in this delusional project, and the basis for them to do so rests on a May 2022 Supreme Court decision on a public interest litigation on the EIA. The Court voided all previous plans and instructed the government to start the process anew, re-examine where the airport should be built, and conduct a new EIA.&nbsp;
Prime Minister Deuba’s government immediately hosted a high profile event in Nijgad to reaffirm commitment to NIA and commissioned a panel to study where the airport should be built. The panel immediately concluded it should be built as originally planned in Nijgad Forest.&nbsp;
How did the committee come to that conclusion so fast? Not surprisingly, the panel was led by Birendra Bahadur Deoja, author of a 2019 paper ‘Need for Nijgadh International Airport for Accelerated Development of Nepal’.&nbsp;
The panel’s development planning expert was Surya Raj Acharya, a longtime vigorous advocate for NIA. Rameshore Khanal, the influential former finance secretary, had tweeted after the initial Court ruling: ‘No matter how much we argue, building of Nijgad Airport is the only (satisfactory) ending’.
The panel did not have any expert on wildlife biology, Tarai and sal forest ecology, food and water security. Yet it quickly concluded Nijgad should be logged out with consequences for the ecology of the entire floodplain farm and forest region, and the last remaining native forest of the eastern Tarai be destroyed for an airport with no developer, financier or planned user.
The Deuba government used the Supreme Court decision to create a pro-Nijgad panel and give the impression it was following due process.
What next?
<ol>
 <li>&nbsp;Based on explicit bias and lack of expertise, the panel and its findings must be voided. Nepal’s development partners must challenge the government in meetings, by public interest litigation in court, and civil society in media and on other public platforms. The new EIA must be made public.</li>
 <li>Two brand new international airports are barely functioning. The government must provide the public and Parliament a cost benefit analysis of NIA that meets the highest levels of international scrutiny. It must list the committed developers, financiers and users, and prove Nepal’s right to use neighbouring airspace. Site clearance cannot begin until this process is complete.&nbsp;</li>
 <li>In 2021, a statement demanding accountability on NIA was drafted and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/importance-of-ecosystems-for-people-and-the-planet">signed by 11 of Nepal’s development partners</a>: Asian Development Bank, the United Nations, the World Bank and the Australian, British, Finnish, French and German Embassies. These organisations must now revisit their statement and find pressure points to compel the government to rethink its effort to bulldoze the project through. After all, they have committed $3.2 billion to Nepal’s Green, Resilient and Inclusive Development (GRID) initiative. Now, the Americans must join the call since it is in line with the Biden White House’s position and the work of its Climate Envoy John Kerry. The US Embassy and USAID have invested in Nepal’s conservation, accountability, and food security. Considering this is a transboundary ecological issue, it is also time for ICIMOD to engage.</li>
 <li>Nepal has signed many international commitments on conservation, climate and sustainable development. These must be examined to assess the ecological implications of logging Nijgad Forest. Nepal has already disregarded NIA’s impact on the Tarai Arc Landscape under the World Bank’s REDD Emission Reductions Program. Violations to these agreements must inform public policy and the international funding discourse.&nbsp;</li>
 <li>The proposal to make Nijgad a conservation area <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nijgad-s-green-runway">that I proposed in this paper last year</a> must become a part of the public and policy discourse. Hemanta Mishra, Nepal’s pioneer conservationist said of that proposal: ‘The implementation of this concept would create a solid and continuous belt of a very high ecological and environment significance ecological site and a continuous belt of indigenous forest (and a carbon sink) all the way from Bara to Parsa and Chitwan to the Northern Banks and the Islands of Narayani in Nawalpur.’ It would also help Nepal’s economy while offering construction contracts for research facilities and wildlife crossings. Resettling the Tangiya Basti community, promised for a long time by state, should happen regardless of NIA.</li>
</ol>
For 7 years, Nepal’s political establishment has ignored activists, experts, media and the Supreme Court in a single-minded pursuit to log a pristine jungle for a project of dubious economic viability.&nbsp;
It has ignored an unprecedented statement signed by a large and important bloc of the international community. This defiance is a direct result of Nepal’s culture of impunity in which top politicians face no personal or political consequences for abuse of authority.&nbsp;
Nepal is on the verge of witnessing its greatest organised eco-crime led by the highest political powers in the land. The implications will reverberate beyond Nepal’s borders. Pushing this <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/economy-ecology-of-nijgad-airport">economically and ecologically suicidal plan</a> during a climate emergency and economic crisis will push Nepal towards a failed state.
Sadly, Nepal’s rulers are not on Nepal’s side.&nbsp;

Kashish Das Shrestha

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Fight or Flight

<img width="1127" height="756" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111132/6372197a9c7e80680e0baa9ejpeg.jpg" alt=""/>The Supreme Court last week <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/building-nijgad-come-what-may/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/building-nijgad-come-what-may/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1654056768205000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1pZzAVLpA6Thda6W1lfmq8">ordered the government to scrap</a> all decisions it has taken so far to build a new international airport in Nijgad 80km south of Kathmandu.The justices faulted an amateurish Environment Impact Assessment (EIA) that ignored the ecological cost of the $3.5 billion project. Activists rejoiced in Kathmandu even as Finance Minister Janardan Sharma set aside money in his budget speech on 29 May for construction to go ahead, and a multi-partisan committee in Parliament vowed the project would go ahead. In a tragic twist of fate, the Tara Air crash this week claimed the life of Makar Tamang and his entire family. Tamang had been an active campaigner for <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/protecting-nepals-forests-from-fires/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/protecting-nepals-forests-from-fires/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1654056768205000&amp;usg=AOvVaw02ygPuE1HMWTZXZmtsxkyl">regenerating Tarai forest</a>s through the <a href="https://mwt.org.np/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://mwt.org.np/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1654056768205000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2n3BJTv3kIGCGMbGGi2-rQ">Mithila Wildlife Trust</a>, which is also trying to save what is left of Nijgad's jungles.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/15-points-for-and-against-nijgad-airport/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/15-points-for-and-against-nijgad-airport/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1654056768205000&amp;usg=AOvVaw00pUVJPImlsUDzluVuPOWK">We have weighed both sides</a> of the argument: the need to plan for growth in passenger volume with the environmental and economic cost of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/does-nepal-need-a-4th-international-airport/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/does-nepal-need-a-4th-international-airport/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1654056768205000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1kOejQBS79cQb09Hv8BaWk">such a gigantic project. </a>The Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) argues that Kathmandu airport was <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Air-jam,4196" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Air-jam,4196&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1654056768205000&amp;usg=AOvVaw29nAycJWMHlg1foTobj1ZI">built for 9.2 million passengers</a> a year, and has exceeded its capacity. Passenger volume is growing at 20% a year and at that rate, Kathmandu alone will have to handle 25 million passengers per year by 2040. Because of terrain, Kathmandu cannot have automatic ILS landing needed for operations in poor visibility — increasingly the case due to worsening air pollution. And the new airports in Pokhara and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/bhairawas-new-airport-already-too-small/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/bhairawas-new-airport-already-too-small/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1654056768205000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2aZwo-BeBIL6EMQ-58bKme">Bhairawa just do not have the capacity</a> to relieve Kathmandu’s pressure. However, activists argue that Nijgad is already an environmental disaster. The airport’s first phase will mean felling 600,000 trees over 2,500 hectares of the last remaining native Char Kose Jhari forest that once covered the entire Tarai.Infrastructure economists also say that Nijgad will mire Nepal in Sri Lanka-scale foreign debt at a time when the economics of global aviation is changing due to longer-range airliners from the hub-and-spoke model, for which Nijgad was originally designed, to point-to-point flights. <figure><img width="2222" height="1160" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111132/6372197c9c7e80680e0baa9fjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Property speculators and squatters have already settled in parts of where Nijgad airport will be built. </figcaption></figure>Not only was the EIA shoddily done, but the business model for the airport is not viable. Nijgad will still be at least 1 hour away from Kathmandu after the expressway is built. Given the track record of Nepal’s governments in non-implementation of ‘national pride’ projects like Melamchi, Pokhara airport, the MCC, or the highway to Kerung, Nepal just does not have the decision-making and management wherewithal, nor the culture of transparency to handle an infrastructure scheme on this scale.  Nijgad is a colossal white elephant. It is a gigantic logging concession masquerading as an airport project. It is a lethal mixture of kleptomania and megalomania. Federal and Madhes Province politicians seem to have done their back of the envelope calculations about how much hardwood timber from 600,000 trees will be worth. Officials have tried to assure us that there will be 20 trees planted for every tree cut. Where have we heard that one before? And where will those 14,400,000 trees be planted, anyway — it will require an area the size of Kathmandu Valley. Nijgad is not just trees, it is a vibrant ecosystem, an important biodiversity hotspot and wildlife corridor in the Tarai Arc Landscape. Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba promised at the Climate Summit in Glasgow in November that Nepal would <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-greenwashing-in-glasgow/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-greenwashing-in-glasgow/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1654056768205000&amp;usg=AOvVaw3ANFy1JniiQjMjs-vxd32p">expand its jungle area to 45%</a> by 2030. The current canopy cover is less than 40%, which means not only does the country have to expand its forest, but it will also have to halt further denudation. Nepal also <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-must-save-nijgad-forest-to-receive-climate-funds/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-must-save-nijgad-forest-to-receive-climate-funds/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1654056768205000&amp;usg=AOvVaw0So4PzMJrNPT52pQEBu496">risks losing climate adaptation funding</a> if the project goes ahead. The loss of Nijgad’s forest is irreplaceable. We understand that no infrastructure is possible without sacrificing nature. But there are ways to ensure a win-win with green growth and climate smart development. If an alternative to Kathmandu airport is really needed, there are viable sites elsewhere: expanding Simara airport without felling so many trees, building the new airport 40km to the east in Sarlahi, where no forest needs to go.  New airports in Bhairawa and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/pokhara-nepals-new-aviation-gateway/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/pokhara-nepals-new-aviation-gateway/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1654056768205000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1NnxfEuTjdIty564LJQQhf">Pokhara</a> can also easily be enlarged to take some of the traffic off Kathmandu. In Kathmandu itself, the ADB project to build a new terminal and extend the taxiway to the end of the runway, and moving STOL flights to Ramechhap, will increase handling capacity in the medium-term. Few in government are willing to listen to this when green becomes the colour of money, and not of trees. Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/building-nijgad-come-what-may/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Building Nijgadh, come what may</a>, Aria Shree Parasai

Aborted landing in Nijgad

<figure><img width="2846" height="1594" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111124/6372181a9c7e80680e0baa25jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>The Nijgad Airport construction site. Pic: Kiran Nepal</figcaption></figure>As the date for a final Supreme Court ruling on the proposed new international airport in Nijgad approaches, uncertainty once more shrouds the $3.5 billion project. Supporters call the airport 60km south of Kathmandu as a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/15-points-for-and-against-nijgad-airport/">necessary infrastructure investment</a> for the country’s economic growth, while opponents say it is an <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/megalomania-kleptomania/">expensive and an ecologically disastrous white elephant</a>. On 26 May, the Supreme Court is slated to give a final verdict on a public interest litigation citing irreversible environmental damage, since it will mean felling 40sq km of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/tree-mendous/">primary tropical forest</a>.  A 2010 feasibility study by Korean consultants Landmark Worldwide proposed a 3-phase construction with a single 4,000m runway for 15 million passengers per year at a cost of $650 million in the first phase to be completed in 4 years. By the third phase, there would be four runways for 67 million passengers a year at a cost of $6.7 billion. It will take another ten years for the final completion.Successive governments, including those led by parties in the current coalition as well as the opposition, have all enthusiastically backed Nijgad, saying it is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/does-nepal-need-a-4th-international-airport/">important for Nepal’s future</a>.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/does-nepal-need-a-4th-international-airport/">Does Nepal need a 4th international airport?</a> Om Astha Rai“Kathmandu airport was <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Air-jam,4196">built for 9.2 million passengers</a> a year, and it has already exceeded that,” says Pradeep Adhikari, Director General of the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN). “Annual international passenger growth is 9-12% and domestic flights have grown by 33% in the past year. Tourism was growing at 10% a year pre-pandemic, and will revive,” he added.With Kathmandu projected to handle 25 million passengers per year by 2040, Pokhara and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/bhairawas-new-airport-already-too-small/">Bhairawa just do not have the capacity</a> to reduce that pressure.“We have reached the limit of air space capacity, terminal capacity and runway capacity,” Adhikari explains.However, it is not just environmentalists who question the rationale for Nijgad. They say the airport is designed for an obsolete <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/megalomania-kleptomania/">‘hub-and-spoke’ model</a>, whereas global aviation has moved to point-to-point destinations with new generation of aircraft that can circumnavigate the globe with just one stop.They also say that with the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/pandemic-impact-on-aviation-may-kill-nijgad/">impact of the pandemic</a> and spreading awareness about the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/tourism-aviation-and-carbon/">climate crisis</a>, there is already a slowdown in civil aviation growth in parts of the world, and that the age of mega-airports is over. Besides, can Nepal afford the debt financing for such a mammoth undertaking? <figure><img width="1329" height="885" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111124/6372181e9c7e80680e0baa26jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The writ petition at the Supreme Court faults a 2018 <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-environment-impact-non-assessments/">Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA)</a> for downplaying the impact on biodiversity and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-must-save-nijgad-forest-to-receive-climate-funds/">carbon sequestration potential</a> of the Nijgad jungle – the last remnant of the once extensive Char Kose Jhari that stretched across the central Tarai.Nepali Times received a copy of the EIA report, and found that it actually <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/pandemic-impact-on-aviation-may-kill-nijgad/">copy-pasted from a hydropower project</a> in the mountains. It did not even delete technical references to ‘headwork’ and ‘powerhouse’. It cites Nijgad as being the habitat of the ghoral, an antelope-like mammal found only in the Himalaya.One of the other concerns is noise pollution from heavy jets on the nearby Parsa National Park, but the EIA misses the point. Saying instead that noise will be mitigated by using ‘less dynamite’. Again, this seems to be from an EIA of a hydropower project. The EIA was prepared by the firm GEOCE Consultants, whose area of expertise is hydropower. The EIA also overestimates passenger handling capacity of 60 million per year, lacks environmental and ecological assessment of the proposed ‘aeropolis’, quarry sites, and infrastructure in the construction and operation phases.In its final phase, the airport  would ultimately require 8,046 hectares of which nearly 95% is heavily forested at present. This has led critics to call Nijgad a “<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/15-points-for-and-against-nijgad-airport/">logging concession</a>” rather than an international airport project.Destruction of the Nijgad forest could impact on <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Recharging-the-mountains,3465">ground water recharge</a> and river flow, affecting irrigation and agriculture production downstream in the fertile Tarai plains.It would also remove the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/habitat-destrcution-of-tiger-in-Tarai,3423">last remaining wildlife corridor</a> for migration between the Tarai jungles and the Siwalik and Mahabharat ranges to the north.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-must-save-nijgad-forest-to-receive-climate-funds/">Nepal must save Nijgad Forest to receive climate funds</a>, Kashish Das ShresthaSince the project area is a part of the Parsa National Park buffer area and lies in the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-can-up-forest-cover-to-45-by-2030/">Terai Arc Landscape</a> (TAL), environmentalists say that the EIA should have analysed the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/pandemic-impact-on-aviation-may-kill-nijgad/">impact of the project on biodiversity and wildlife</a> much more carefully. A 1994 report by the <a href="https://www.iucn.org/">International Union for the Conservation of Nature</a> (IUCN) showed the Nijgad forest to be ecologically fragile, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/economy-ecology-of-nijgad-airport/">rich in biodiversity and wildlife</a> movement routes.  The forest has Khair, Sissoo, Sal and Satisal trees, some of which  cannot be logged and exported by law according to the revised forest rules of 2001.Hardwood tropical forests with their canopy cover and undergrowth are much <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-must-save-nijgad-forest-to-receive-climate-funds/">more effective at carbon sequesteration</a>, and experts have calculated that felling the Nijgad jungle would prevent 22,500 tonnes of carbon from being absorbed from the atmosphere annually.Parts of the Nijgad jungle are community forests, or locally protected, and have small seasonal streams and natural drainage systems forming a ‘paini’ network that villagers traditionally use for wells, irrigation and drinking.The EIA does not have a valuation of ‘ecosystem services’ and livelihood benefits for the 37,000 households that depend on the forest for firewood, fodder and water. If the forest is replaced by an airport, it could put further pressure on the nearby national park and other protected areas.The EIA mentions that the government will compensate local communities for loss of livelihood, and initiate a major <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/mini-forests-to-make-kathmandu-more-liveable/">reforestation drive</a> to replace the trees. But it does not mention where and how many trees will be planted. Nepal’s record for compensation and replanting in other infrastructure projects is poor. <figure><img width="1361" height="784" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111124/637218219c7e80680e0baa27jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>CAAN’s Adhikari argues that no development project anywhere in the world comes with zero environmental cost.“The idea is to mitigate the impact and strictly follow  guidelines for replanting trees that are lost,” he says.  But such massive reforestation is an ambitious goal, and difficult with Sal saplings that nurseries find hard to grow. It takes decades to build species diversity and fully functioning forest ecosystems, and they still cannot replace native forests. Environmentalists say the EIA also does not look at <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/15-points-for-and-against-nijgad-airport/">alternative sites</a> for the airport that would be less damaging.Nepal has increased forest cover in the past years, but sub-tropical and tropical forests are declining even as the country’s carbon footprint grows. At COP26 in Glasgow last year, Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba set a target for Nepal to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-can-up-forest-cover-to-45-by-2030/">increase its forest area to 45% by 2030</a>, and opponents of the project say Nijgad would be a step backward.The Nijgad EIA was submitted in March 2018, and hurriedly approved within two months by the Ministry of Forests and Environment. Critics say it is wrong for both the presenter of the EIA and the approver being government agencies. In fact, the last sentence of the EIA even says <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/zurich-airport-international-opts-out-of-nepal-project/">Prime Minister K P Oli  backed the project</a> and wanted it to be started ‘ASAP’.“We have to look at 20 years from now,” says Adhikari of CAAN. “There is going to be big tourism growth, Nepalis will be traveling more, and we will have outgrown Kathmandu, Pokhara and Bhairawa. Nepal needs a primary international airport in the coming decades.” Even before the EIA approval, the Ministry of Culture, Tourism and Civil Aviation had already contracted the Nepal Army to start clearing trees at the Nijgad site. At present 60% of land acquisition has been completed, tree felling has begun, and work has started on civil works and river training.Politically motivated environmental assessments are common in developing countries like Nepal, and opponents say the Nijgad EIA is one such.  Read more: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/megalomania-kleptomania/">Megalomania + Kleptomania</a>, Editorial

Aria Shree Parasai

Building Nijgad, come what may

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;