Nearly 750,000 Nepalis went abroad for employment in the past year. Another 112,000 left initially on student visas, many of them also to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/migration-not-a-wish-but-necessity-for-nepalis">work and emigrate</a>. These figures do not include those who went to India or left through unofficial channels. Back of the envelope, it would mean at least 1 million Nepalis left Nepal last year.&nbsp;
Besides these there are Nepalis settled permanently overseas, spread across North America, Europe, Australia, and East Asia. There are 290,000 documented people of Nepali origin in the US alone – their average yearly household income is more than $100,000.
Nepalis can run into compatriots in just about <a href="https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/143106">every corner of the globe</a>, and the money they send home annually just through official channels totals $11 billion. The real figure is much higher.&nbsp;
The decentralisation of the passport distribution in the 1990s for the first time made international movement easier for Nepalis. The Non-Resident Nepalis Association (NRNA), was established in 2003 and now has 97,000 members and chapters in 87 countries.
In 2008, the Nepal government introduced the Non-Resident Nepali Act, categorising Non-Resident Nepalis (NRNs) as either being an individual of Nepali origin who has acquired foreign citizenship, or a Nepali citizen residing abroad for more than two years. It excludes people of Nepali origin and Nepalis residing and working in SAARC member countries.
The 2015 Constitution stipulated that overseas Nepalis <a href="https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/143037">could ‘enjoy economic, social, and cultural rights in accordance with federal law’</a>. However, it took another eight years for Parliament to pass the Nepal Citizenship (First Amendment) Bill under which overseas Nepalis (except those in South Asia) had all the rights of Nepali citizens except the right to vote or run for political office.&nbsp;
The provisions laid down in the Constitution and law are not for dual citizenship, but for second citizenship. &nbsp;
Indeed, those who have gone through the process of obtaining an NRN citizenship have described it as <a href="https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/143112">needlessly convoluted</a>. District Administration Offices refuse to issue US-based NRNs a second citizenship without their Social Security number despite American laws prohibiting the disclosure of the number outside of the US. If they obtain Nepali citizenship, NRNs have had to pay visa fees even though there is a government directive that they do not have to do so.&nbsp;
The idea was to make it easy for many to invest in Nepal, or retire in their motherland in the hope that this <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/poor-cash-rich-nepal">would boost the economy</a>. Many first and second generation Nepali émigré across the world have children and grandchildren who want to know about their heritage.
Non-Resident Nepalis can acquire property in Nepal through purchase, inheritance, or investment. Those with foreign citizenship can obtain 10 year visa. They are also entitled to run any industry or business in Nepal, to set up bank accounts, and to bring in either Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) or make investments just like Nepali citizens. NRNs are exempt from taxes on investment, and may repatriate the investment and profits to their home country.
Despite these stipulations, the country’s investment climate is not conducive even for people of Nepali origin. There is just too much bureaucratic rigmarole, restrictions, kickbacks and payoffs every step of the way.&nbsp;
Inheritance rights <a href="https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/143037">only exist on paper</a>, NRN citizens are made to jump through too many hoops to purchase property and many have just given up. The word has spread in the NRN community that despite the 2022 Act, Nepal is not for the faint-hearted.
<a href="https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/143112">Tara Baral from Jhapa</a> spent 20 years and is a US citizen. After the 2022 NRN Act was passed by Parliament, he decided to move back to the motherland last year. He and his wife got NRN citizenship papers and wanted to buy an apartment in Kathmandu. Even though he was not buying real estate, just a flat, bureaucrats told him foreigners were not allowed to buy property.&nbsp;
Even though NRN citizenship allows people of Nepali origin to get a 10 year visa for free, Baral was asked by bureaucrats at the Immigration Department to pay for his visa renewal. Basudev Ghimire an American with NRN citizenship is asked at Kathmandu Airport to pay a visa fee every time he enters Nepal. He has not been able to buy any property. There are hundreds of examples like Baral and Ghimire.&nbsp;
NRNA founding chair Jiba Lamichhane says that rather than NRN citizenship, Nepalis who have acquired foreign passports should be allowed to have dual citizenship, unless they renounce it voluntarily. Lamichhane has lived overseas for almost four decades but still carries a Nepali passport.
Nepal’s main political parties have maintained strong ties with the diaspora for their dollars. Leading politicians make frequent fund-raising forays abroad. This has ended up <a href="https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/143121">politicising the NRN community</a>, reflecting the divisions back home. The power struggle for leadership is so strong that fist fights have broken out during NRNA elections in North America.&nbsp;
Nepal’s parties have been loath to address the issue of NRNs because they feel overseas Nepalis are inherently anti-incumbent. Many who left Nepal say they did so because they got fed up with bad governance, corruption and lack of jobs and a stagnant economy. This is also why parties in Parliament have stalled a bill that would give Nepali passport holders working and studying abroad absentee voting rights.&nbsp;
Heaping blame on just the politicians would be unfair. The bureaucracy has become a den of thieves, and despite acts of Parliament and laws they put hurdles every step of the way for overseas Nepalis to enjoy their constitutionally-given rights.&nbsp;
Based on Diaspora Discussion held by our sister publication Himalkhabar on 13 October. Watch full video in Nepali <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yPdgbKAglrE&amp;t=2s">here</a>.

original

674x448

610x380

500x500

400x266

400x240

400x203

301x200

1084x550

thumbnail

viewImage

Home is where the heart is

The warning by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to punish countries that refuse to repatriate workers wishing to go home by suspending bilateral labour agreements could put a huge burden on the Nepal government.Just in the past two years more than 122,000 workers have taken labour permits for the Emirates. There are an estimated 275,000 Nepali workers there, and even if ten percent of them wanted to return to Nepal because their work visas have expired or they are laid off, Nepal would have neither the flight or quarantine capacity to handle them.The UAE Ministry of Human Resources warned on Sunday to impose ‘strict future restrictions on recruitment’ of workers from mainly South Asian countries that refused to take back their nationals who want to return.A Ministry official was quoted by the Emirates News Agency (WAM) as saying: “The options include suspending the MoU signed between the ministry and concerned authorities in these countries, and setting strict restriction on recruitment of workers from those countries. Many countries have not responded to requests by their nationals to return home following the outbreak.”<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/labour-mobility/crossborder-virus-and-nepali-migrant-workers/">Crossborder virus and Nepali migrant workers,</a> Upasana Khadka<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121112/636b8b7a9c7e80680e06b2a0jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1630" height="1070"/><figcaption>Nepali and Indian migrants watch a Bollywood movie inside their camp. Photo: PATTABI RAMAN</figcaption></figure>This trend is also being seen elsewhere. Countries like Kuwait and Maldives have asked the Bangladesh to take back its undocumented workers which could total to over 75,000 workers.Diplomatic sources in Abu Dhabi were quoted as saying that the UAE government had sent a note verbale to all South Asian embassies about taking nationals who wanted to return home, adding that those who had tested positive would be treated in the Emirates itself.“Nepal just does not have the quarantine and isolation capacity to handle so many returnees,” said one Nepali public health expert. “Besides, the question would arise why we are flying back workers from Dubai but not from Delhi.”<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/lockdown-limbo-in-no-mans-land/">Lockdown limbo in no man's land</a>, Deepak KharelIndeed, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/what-is-novel-about-the-novel-coronavirus/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">coronavirus</a> has revealed the morality and ethics of what could quickly become a humanitarian disaster for developing countries besides being a health pandemic. Workers from Nepal and other South Asian countries face a dilemma: they cannot go back to their own countries even if they want to, and if they stay they will be exposed to infections in the overcrowded camps.However, the onus is mostly on the Nepal government to take care of its citizens. The first step would be to know exactly how many Nepalis are in the UAE, and how many of them want to return. There are no figures for that.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepalis-quarantined-in-qatar/">Nepalis quarantined in Qatar</a>, Upasana KhadkaThe Nepali Association (NRNA) in the UAE recently started collecting information on those who want to return. So far 4,240 respondents have replied among whom 15% are on visit visas and majority of the remaining are on resident (work) visas – of which 35% are on unpaid leave and 20% have had their resident visas cancelled. The Association’s Naresh Sen said that the survey was conducted after its written requests to the Nepal government did not yield any outcome.There are 4 million Nepalis outside Nepal. Even if a tenth of them wanted to return home, the numbers are mind-boggling. Says Purna Chandra Bhattarai, former Secretary, “The biggest evacuation of foreign workers took place in 2011, from Libya, when we brought back 1,700 workers after the onset of the war there.”<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/shared-stories-shattered-dreams/">Shared stories, shattered dreams of South Asian migrant workers</a>, Sonia AwaleThis is a problem of a scale. There have been nearly three weeks of lockdown to prepare, mobilise army/police to identify potential areas for quarantine and set up facilities, we are just not prepared to take back citizens who want to return home and in emerging cases like the UAE, are being forced to do so.Ramesh stays positiveThere are 11 Nepali who have tested positive for coronavirus in the UAE. One person has so far died while 4 have recovered.One Nepali is Ramesh (name changed) worked right through the pandemic until he tested positive. The ten migrants in his room are being placed in a separate building: 8 in one room, Ramesh who tested positive in a single room and the other one in the hospital.“I had fever and headache that made it feel like my head was going to explode. So they took a swab test and informed my employer that I tested positive after which I have been kept in a separate room,” said Ramesh, who still has not informed his family because of the panic that will ensue. The other Nepali in his with severe chest pains has been taken to hospital.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/why-has-zero-cost-migration-not-happened/">Why has zero-cost migration not happened?</a>, Upasana Khadka“I try to keep myself distracted. I don’t have wifi here so I play games on my phone and try to think positive because I don’t want the virus to win, I have to stay strong,” Ramesh said. “I don’t really have a hobby. I used to like writing poems but it has been years since I stopped. Maybe I should take it up again.”Ramesh does not know how he got infected. It could be the canteen where there are hundreds of workers crowded together. Or it could be the room where there are ten others, and one room-mate tested positive. “I know about social distancing, but how could I do that here?” he asks.Ramesh adds: “At times like this you realise no one is really there for you. Not the embassy. Not the Nepali community groups. Not your employer. Everyone is pointing only to the UAE government’s hotline number. I talk to them everyday and they take my details. My case is still mild and so they haven’t taken me to hospital. Some of my friends have been going out of their way to help with food. I owe them."Ramesh who has tested positive for coronavirus in the UAE, wrote this poem during his COVID-19 isolation followed by its translation:  कयौ बर्ष अघि देखिजिन्दगी को गोरेटो माफगत एक्लै हिडिरहेथेतर,आज अचानककोहि साथ दिन्छु भन्दैछमलाइ संगै राख्छु भन्दैछतर म, जान चाहदिनकिनकीमलाइ जिन्दगी जिउनुपुगेकै छैन।तर अहंउ मान्दैन।म निरन्तर मनाउने कोशिश गरिरहेछुउ ठिङ उभिएर एकनास मलाई नियालिरहेछ।सायद उ पनि दोधार मा छ।तेसैले,मेरो आँखा मा खडकिरहेछ।आस्था को पनि एउटा परिधी हुदोरहेछ।बिश्वास को पनि एउटा सिमा हुदोरहेछ।तेसैले तेहि सिमा मा उभिएर उ मलाइ निरन्तर हेरिरहेछम उसलाई ।र एक अर्का लाई मनाउने कोशिश मैयहाँ जिन्दगी अघि बढी रहेछ।। For many yearsI was walking alone along this pathof life.  But, suddenly todaysomeone wants towalk with me,stay with me.But me,I don't want that becauseI haven't lived lifeto the full.But, no, the persondoesn't agree.I try persuasionbut the person just stands and stares at me.Maybe torn,like me.There is regretin my eyes.There is a limit to faith.From that boundarywe gaze at each other.This life goes onas we still try to persuadeeach other. Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-india-connection-in-nepals-covid-19-status/">The India connection in Nepal’s COVID-19 status</a>, Nepali Times<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/western-nepal-potential-covid-19-outbreak/">Western Nepal potential COVID-19 outbreak</a>, Nepali Times<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/returnees-may-be-taking-coronavirus-to-rural-nepal/">Returnees may be taking coronavirus to rural Nepal</a>, Mukesh Pokhrel and Sonia Awale

1250x600

UAE warning to send back workers, including Nepalis

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

&nbsp;
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="700" frameborder="0"> </iframe></div>

Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

nrna

Home is where the heart is

UAE warning to send back workers, including Nepalis

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

Nepal election live results

Bells ring all over Nepal

The magic 138