Prime Minister K P Oli’s visit to China this week was proof that Nepal suffers self-inflicted geopolitical harm. Let’s call it the ‘China syndrome’. Weeks before the visit, opposition politicians, coalition partners, op-ed influencers all started ringing alarm bells about backlash from India about Oli not going to Delhi first. Maoist leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal even internationalised a domestic issue by telling an Indian newspaper what it wanted to hear about Oli using ‘the China card’.&nbsp; The acronym BRI was in every page 1 headline for a month before the visit. It was almost like this was payback time for how the American MCC deal was nearly cancelled two years ago. The governing UML’s main coalition partner maintained that Nepal should accept only grants, and no more loans from China.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241205111228_8f0349a0999ed9efadae2d0f0c781eee275f6e1788e5b2d31d5e6ab53a846d41.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20241205111228_8f0349a0999ed9efadae2d0f0c781eee275f6e1788e5b2d31d5e6ab53a846d41" data-rendition-name="original" width="3600" height="2400" loading="lazy" alt="PM Oli in China"> <figcaption>Photos: RSS</figcaption> </figure>  In the end, after much last-minute backroom haggling in Beijing, a compromise formula was found for Nepal to finally sign the BRI on Wednesday. The trick was in semantics: calling the BRI a ‘Belt and Road Initiative Framework Cooperation Agreement’. Not that this was going to make much of a difference. The grant vs loan dispute was also tidily bypassed by using the oxymoronic term ‘aid-assistance’. This should make way for both grants and soft loans from China to fund infrastructure and development projects under the BRI, which was what it was going to be anyway. And that was enough to prove that Oli’s visit to China was not just a junket. Ten out of the 12 projects proposed by Nepal were ‘accepted’ by the Chinese side as part of the BRI deal: the Hilsa-Simikot Road, Kimathanka-Khandbari Road and Kimathanka Bridge, the Tokha-Chhahare tunnel, the trans-border Kerung-Kathmandu railway and a 220kV Kerung-Rasuwagadi transmission line among them.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241205111228_d6de37a9f84076284efe60b3ca838f6061f3abab7041be946bf312c62f7ea040.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20241205111228_d6de37a9f84076284efe60b3ca838f6061f3abab7041be946bf312c62f7ea040" data-rendition-name="original" width="3600" height="2367" loading="lazy" alt="PM Oli in China"> </figure>  But given how past bilateral agreement since President Xi Jinping’s visit to Kathmandu in 2019 have languished, there is likely to be the usual inertia on the Nepal side. Tellingly, there was no agreement on Nepal’s wish for the cancellation of the $220 million loan from China’s Exim Bank for Pokhara airport. The most tangible outcome seemed to be water buffalo meat export, China sending Mandarin teachers to Nepal, a future ‘friendship park’ in Oli’s home constituency of Jhapa and a city hall in Sher Bahadur Deuba’s constituency of Dadeldhura.&nbsp; Nepal signed the framework agreement of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) with China in 2017, initially proposing 35 development projects which came down to nine. In 2020, China sent Nepal a BRI implementation plan, but progress was mired in politicisation and red tape. This time, a joint task force involving members of the UML and NC drafted the BRI Framework agreement prior to PM Oli’s visit to China. “Although some of the funding is in the form of grants, the BRI’s financial modality is usually commercial and concessional loans anyway,” says Mahesh Maskey, Nepal’s former ambassador to China. “While commercial loans are expensive, BRI concessional loan interest rates have been as low as 0.3%. If we only seek grants, we could have chosen to do that through normal bilateral agreements like we do at present. Why choose to pursue grants under the BRI?”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241205111228_b6c7da0bb45a798756ae0279a2e643ed041f3a28adff080800050169bfc82468.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20241205111228_b6c7da0bb45a798756ae0279a2e643ed041f3a28adff080800050169bfc82468" data-rendition-name="original" width="3600" height="2400" loading="lazy" alt="PM Oli in China"> </figure>  China-watchers in Kathmandu say Beijing has stopped taking Kathmandu seriously because Nepali leaders never do what they say, are tangled up in power struggles and do not implement agreements. Instead of begging China to forgive the Pokhara airport loan, they say Nepal has not done anything to promote it as an alternative tourism gateway. Not even Nepal’s own carriers like Nepal Airlines and Himalaya Airlines fly there from Chinese cities. In fact, the last minute deal-making on the BRI Framework Agreement is a classic example of how not to conduct bilateral negotiations. It did provide Oli with a fig leaf, but a lot now will depend on how Nepal’s leaders stop being distracted by external geopolitics, and pay urgent attention to internal delivery.&nbsp;

Shristi Karki

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China syndrome

Prime Minister K P Oli appears to have decided that since an invitation to visit India is not forthcoming, he will go to China instead. This breaks the tradition of Nepal’s prime ministers flying off to New Delhi first after assuming office.&nbsp;
The Indian media has labelled Oli as ‘pro-China’ so often that most of India seems to believe it. Having a pro-China public persona suits Oli fine since it bolsters his nationalist credentials at home, while privately he keeps his trust with Indian leaders.
“India not inviting Nepal on a state visit does not need to be made into such a big deal. The success or failure of our common national interests do not hinge upon whether or not Nepal and India’s leaders visit one another,” says political commentator Indra Adhikari. “And it is unproductive to believe that Nepal’s government will fall just because India has not invited Oli for a state visit.”
To be sure, Oli and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had met in New York in September at the UN General Assembly, so he has partially kept to the tradition.
Not much has been divulged about the agenda for China visit, but it is expected to include Chinese aid projects in Nepal under Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This is largely symbolic, since it does not really matter on the ground whether Pokhara’s airport is BRI since the Chinese-built facility predates the initiative.
Amidst widespread perception that Pokhara airport is a white elephant and straddled Nepal with a $220 million Chinese Exim Bank debt, Oli could be trying to turn that loan into a grant if calling it ‘BRI’ is all it takes.
Pokhara airport has seen no regular international flights almost two years after it was inaugurated. India has balked at granting flights between Indian cities and Pokhara, and neither Nepal’s nor China’s airlines have shown much interest in connecting it to Chinese cities.
Despite signs of perennial strain in inter-governmental ties between New Delhi and Kathmandu, people-to-people and military-to-military relations appear to be as healthy as ever. India’s Board Security Force head Amrit Mohan Prasad will be in Kathmandu on Friday, and Indian Army Chief Upendra Dwivedi isset to make a visit next week.
As it stands, Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri visited Kathmandu, and Foreign Minister Arzu Rana Deuba was feted in Delhi in August. India’s Army Chief Upendra Dwivedi and Border Security Force head Amrit Mohan Prasad are also visiting Kathmandu in the coming days.
Foreign Minister Rana’s relationship with India has been amicable, and she was received warmly by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in New York in September. Rana who is flying to Beijing in the coming weeks to prepare for Oli’s visit has also been tasked with managing the visit through an unusual bipartisan mechanism made up of top leaders from the UML and Nepali Congress. &nbsp;
UML spokesperson Pradeep Gyawali clarified: “The bipartisan mechanism was not just made to set the groundwork for the prime minister’s visit to China, but also to foster collaboration between the two parties on important domestic issues.”&nbsp;
Says Adhikari: “This two-party mechanism could perhaps be the leaders trying to send a message that they are united and that their partnership will sustain as well as to assure the public that they are serious about working on their promises including amending the constitution.”
While Oli and his UML comrades have tried to gloss over the absence of an invitation from India as no big deal, there have been the usual signs of bilateral friction. Just as the Indian press portrays Oli as ‘pro-Chinese’, the Nepali media often highlights Indian high-handedness on trade, river sharing, and refusal to allow air routes that would facilitate more flights to Pokhara and Bhairawa airports.&nbsp;
Nepal has gone ahead and forced some international airlines to start flying Bhairawa to reduce congestion at Kathmandu airport, which is seeing taxiway upgrades till April next year.
Another irritant has been non-tariff restrictions on Nepal’s exports to India like cement, textiles, and other consumer goods that use Chinese-made raw materials — just like India refuses to buy electricity from hydropower plants built by Chinese contractors, even though the power is all fed into Nepal’s national grid.
Meanwhile, Maoist chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal has been campaigning at the grassroots in Kirtipur’s by-elections next month. And RSP chair Rabi Lamichhane remains in custody and was brought to Bhairawa from Pokhara to be investigated in the cooperatives scam. &nbsp;

Oli’s oscillations

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

oli-china-visit

China syndrome

Oli’s oscillations

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

Nepal election live results

Bells ring all over Nepal

The magic 138