<figure><img width="1500" height="1125" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141156/636d02f09c7e80680e0a36a9jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption></figure>After nearly two years of nearly zero tourist arrivals and revenue, Nepal looks set to welcome international tourists again after the government on Thursday introduced <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-relaxes-entry-for-tourists/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-relaxes-entry-for-tourists/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1632570637352000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHnLyYWvLXJvsJU8eaBdNrKPZ6tVw">revised immigration</a> entry protocols. Tourists fully vaccinated against Covid, with the second dose 14 days before the date of travel, will no longer have to quarantine after landing in Kathmandu and can get visas <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-should-now-allow-visa-on-arrival/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-should-now-allow-visa-on-arrival/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1632570637352000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHjF2QHUC13ukwzJScBCBN92EtMBQ">on arrival</a>. Earlier, they had to get visas from Nepal’s missions abroad and quarantine for seven days at a hotel in Kathmandu at their own expense.Partially vaccinated and unvaccinated visitors will have to obtain visas from Nepal’s embassies in their home countries or elsewhere, and will still have to spend 10 days in a government approved hotel in Kathmandu and get a PCR negative test before they go out and about.Tourists coming via land, except Indians who are visa-exempt, must arrive with their visas from Nepali diplomatic missions and be subject to a negative antigen test at the Chinese or Indian borders. “The government looked at the current trend of Covid infections, transmission and disease control to reach this decision,” says spokesperson of the Immigration Department Jhanka Nath Dhakal. “Entry of fully vaccinated tourists becomes easier as a lot of additional paperwork can be avoided.”   However, all visitors, including fully vaccinated ones will have to present a negative PCR or other test report done not longer than 72 hours before their flight, and bring a printout of the international arrival form at <a href="http://www.ccmc.gov.np/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.ccmc.gov.np/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1632570637352000&amp;usg=AFQjCNETnSNgD6N7OXNBWaTNnPNsbVT4UQ">www.ccmc.gov.np</a> to immigration for visa on arrival.The new protocols were issued even though the Covid-19 Crisis Management Committee (CCMC) itself does not have legal standing because an ordinance establishing it has lapsed because of the continued political impasse in Parliament.Nepal’s tourism industry had been lobbying strongly with the government to ease restrictions as the case load and fatalities in Kathmandu drop, and the vaccinate rate goes up in countries from where most visitors come to Nepal.  They argued that millions of jobs were at stake, investors were defaulting on loans for hotels, airlines and restaurants and the government was losing the $800 million it used to earn a year from tourism prior to the pandemic. <img width="1920" height="1080" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141156/636d02f59c7e80680e0a36aajpeg.jpg" alt="">Members of the tourism industry had criticized <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/call-to-ease-entry-of-tourists-to-nepal/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/call-to-ease-entry-of-tourists-to-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1632570637352000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHqIs-F1N3YhbPuKTGkxsfontRJvw">earlier entry regulations</a> as being cumbersome and confusing, detracting potential visitors. For example, tourists needed to submit NTB or Department of Tourism-approved travel itineraries to obtain visas on-arrival while quarantining for seven days.  As a result, only tourists with well-connected agents could arrange the paperwork and arrive easily. Travel trade stakeholders complained of arbitrary visa requirements and ad hoc decision making.  While most tourists were previously discouraged by the convoluted regulations, news of the revised protocol has generated an overwhelmingly positive response.  Deepak Raj Joshi, the former CEO of the Nepal Tourism Board (NTB) is glad the government finally took the decision.“The tourism industry is now buoyant, stakeholders are pleased and demand from potential tourists is massive, so we must aggressively and effectively communicate the return of Nepali tourism into source markets,” Joshi says.  A streamlined entry process is a much-needed boost for tourism, one of the sectors hit hardest by Covid. Nepal got nearly 1.2 million tourists in 2019, but this figure dropped to only 220,000 in 2020 – mot of them who had arrived before the lockdown in March that year. So far this year, there have been only 70,000 visitors – most are either mountaineers or repeat trekkers, or those familiar with Nepal and have some connections here. <figure><img width="935" height="398" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141156/636d02f89c7e80680e0a36abjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Tourist arrivals in Nepal from January to November 2020. Data: NEPAL TOURISM BOARD</figcaption></figure>Despite the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/survive-2020-revive-in-2021-and-thrive-in-2022/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/survive-2020-revive-in-2021-and-thrive-in-2022/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1632570637352000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEO67ibb82phNtJ_SPK2OBPcSmA1g">socio-economic fallout </a>from the pandemic, the tourism industry has prepared well to host tourists again. Vaccine penetration in the hospitality sector is high, and the new, simplified entry requirements are the next step in restoring a “new normal” for tourism alongside Covid in the long-run.Most frontliners working the tourism industry are already vaccinated, and in popular destinations such as Langtang, workers as well as locals are jabbed. Trekking and mountaineering may soon continue as normal, with expedition groups usually no larger than 20-30 members and everyone involved inoculated.There has been a trickle of trekkers coming to Nepal even under the older stricter rules, and there are expedition already at base camps of various mountains including Manaslu, Dhaulagiri and Kangchenjunga. There have been no climbing permits issued for Mt Everest.“Lobbying is underway to implement a ‘V-to-V’, vaccinated-to-vaccinated tourism model whereby vaccinated guests are hosted by vaccinated hospitality services,” says Joshi. Such a model is particularly relevant for tourists coming overland through border cities such as Birganj, Biratnagar and Nepalganj and have high vaccination rates, and the visiting Indians themselves are increasingly getting inoculated. Tourism as an industry is based on trust and hospitality as it sells services, leaving no room for negligence and error. This makes it a relatively safer sector than others, says Joshi. “If a tourism-based business doesn’t follow health guidelines and helps spread disease, it loses trust and trade for life, making the entire industry cautious and aware,” he says. “That the government readily allowed crowded religious processions to go on while stalling on safe tourism speaks volumes on flawed planning.” <img width="1448" height="2048" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141156/636d02fa9c7e80680e0a36acjpeg.jpg" alt="">Elsewhere, on-arrival visas have also been resumed for those returning for funerals of relatives, those who are convalescing, or returning to care for elderly citizens – but they have to produce negative Covid tests and recommendations from local governments and hospitals. On-arrival visas are also on offer for returning non-resident Nepalis and foreigners married to Nepali nationals. Nationals of the following countries will need to have visas before they arrive in Kathmandu: Zimbabwe, Swaziland, Cameroon, Somalia, Liberia, Nigeria, Ghana, Ethiopia, Iraq, Palestine, Afghanistan and Syria.

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Nepal reopening for tourists

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101152/636b78a69c7e80680e0646b2jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1000" height="763"/><figcaption>Photo: BIKRAM RAI</figcaption></figure>With business coming to a grinding halt globally due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Nepal’s migration and tourism-based economy is being severely impacted.Global stock markets are in freefall, the US has halted trans-Atlantic flights, Italy is in lockdown, India has stopped issuing tourist visas, schools in Japan are closed, Qatar has banned nationals from 14 countries, Saudi Arabia has halted travel to nine countries, and although the virus has stabilised in next-door China, there is a danger there of reverse infection.But as the epidemic spreads, Nepal has officially admitted to only one confirmed case of COVID-19. Public health experts say this does not mean there are no infected people, it just means suspected cases have not been tested yet. They say the country is not prepared to deal with an outbreak.“The situation around the world is getting out of hand, but Nepal has been able to dodge a full-blown health crisis till now,” says Sameer M Dixit, a scientist at the Centre for Molecular Dynamics Nepal. “In an ideal situation the country would be under lockdown, but right now Nepal should stop all direct flights from highly affected countries.”Even though there are no overt signs of a health crisis, Nepal’s economy has already been hit hard and the impact is expected to worsen in the coming months as tourism collapses and air travel is further curtailed.The Asian Development Bank’s ‘<a href="https://www.adb.org/publications/economic-impact-covid19-developing-asia" target="_blank" rel="noopener">COVID-19 Economic Impact Assessment Template</a>’ released this week lays out the best- and worst-case scenarios for countries in the region. For Nepal, the bank predicts a loss of up to $322 million.The tourism sector has been impacted by travel restrictions imposed by Nepal and other countries, and airlines cancelling flights.The government decision late Thursday, after the print edition of this paper had gone to press, decided to revoke visa on arrival at Kathmandu for nationals of all countries. Visitors will still be allowed to enter Nepal but they will require a visa from a Nepali mission abroad and also a Coronavirus-free health certificate. The visa rule be effective 14 March to 30 April for now.The move comes one day after China cancelled all expeditions from its side of Mt Everest. The Nepali government has also cancelled all climbing expedition permits including Mt Everest for the spring season.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/why-nepal-must-watch-about-coronavirus-but-not-panic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Why Nepal must watch Coronavirus, but not panic</a>, Sameer M DixitEven before the government <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/lets-call-off-visit-nepal-year-2020/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">called off Visit Nepal Year 2020</a>, the campaign was criticised for lack of international promotion and the money being wasted on domestic extravaganza. Although tourist arrivals saw only a slight drop to 101,400 in February, there was a 80% decrease in visitors from China.Official figures are not yet available for March and April, but the travel industry is reporting widespread cancellations. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-postpones-international-events-as-fear-of-covid-19-intensifies/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Many international conferences and sports events have been postponed</a>. Hotel occupancy rates are dropping at what should have been peak season. Trekking and mountaineering expeditions have gone ahead but there has been a 50% decline in the number of clients. There are also reports of cancellations for April.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101152/636b78a99c7e80680e0646b3jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="981" height="497"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>“Hotel bookings are down by 60% in the 5-star hotels around Nepal,” Shreejana Rana, President of <a href="https://www.hotelassociationnepal.org.np/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Hotel Association of Nepal</a>, told Nepali Times. “We had <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/chinese-tourist-influx-to-nepal-in-2020/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">expected a surge in bookings </a>after Chinese New Year and during the spring from American and European tourists but that isn’t the case.”The first airlines to cancel flights were the ones operating to Chinese destinations: Himalaya Airlines, Sichuan Airlines and Tibet Airlines. Air China, China Southern and China Eastern are still operating flights, but with reduced frequency and smaller aircraft.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101152/636b78ab9c7e80680e0646b4jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="4096" height="2730"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101152/636b78ae9c7e80680e0646b5jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3644" height="2429"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>“The tourism industry is very sensitive. The smallest problem has widespread impact, and it takes a lot of time to recover from it,” says Deepak Raj Joshi, former CEO of <a href="https://www.welcomenepal.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal Tourism Board</a>. “We need to start preparing for the future right away.”The Tourism Ministry is now repurposing <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/the-nepal-brand/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Visit Nepal Year 2020</a> towards a 2020-2030 ‘Tourism Decade’, and the hotel industry is relying on domestic promotion, encouraging Nepalis to travel to Pokhara and to go trekking during the new-year break in April.Nepal expects about 250 climbers from 24 expeditions on Mt Everest this spring, even though Korean, Japanese and some western expeditions have cancelled. This is half down from last year, when there was a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/most-days-its-not-so-crowded-on-mt-everest/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">notorious traffic jam on the summit</a>. On Wednesday, China closed its side of the mountain due to the COVID-19 scare.“Everest expeditions are starting soon but we are still trying to figure out what to do if the mountaineers catch coronavirus during the trip,” says Sarita Lama of the <a href="https://www.taan.org.np/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Trekking Agencies’ Association of Nepal (TAAN)</a>. “This is so bad it may take us years to recover from the crisis.” Trek bookings are also at half of last year’s numbers.Nepal’s main source of foreign exchange, its <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/for-nepals-migrant-workers-good-news-in-small-bites/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">two million workers abroad</a>, will also be hit. Qatar this week imposed a ban on workers from 14 countries, including Nepal. Nepal is preventing workers from flying to South Korea.The High-Level Coordination Committee also decided on Thursday to stop issuing labour permits for Nepali migrants seeking to go abroad for work. It is uncertain when the migration ban will be lifted.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/labour-mobility/crossborder-virus-and-nepali-migrant-workers/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Crossborder virus and Nepali migrant workers</a>, Upasana KhadkaNepal’s major infrastructure projects all face delays because of the reliance on Chinese contractors and workers. The start of the epidemic in January coincided with Chinese New Year, which meant that workers at new airport projects in Pokhara, Bhairawa and numerous hydropower plants under construction who had gone home could not return.Even among those who have returned, some have been quarantined, including 70 who work on Pokhara’s new airport. If given the all-clear, they will be released only on 16 March.“Although work has slowed down these past couple of months, we will work night and day to meet the target completion date of July 2021,” Pokhara airport manager Binesh Munakarmi assured Nepali Times.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101152/636b78b19c7e80680e0646b6jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3000" height="1688"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Construction at Bhairawa airport, which was scheduled to open later this year, is expected to be delayed.“Many of our engineers and workers have not been able to come back to Nepal,” says Bhairawa airport project chief Prabesh Adhikari. “There are about 25 Chinese workers on site and we are trying to move construction forward, but we need the rest to return.”The timely completion of<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/reservoirs-of-suspicion/hydropower-geopolitics%20,3991" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> hydropower projects</a>, of which 65 have the involvement of Chinese companies, looks more bleak. Construction at 25 of these under-construction projects have not resumed since Chinese New Year. Workers have not been allowed to travel out of China, and necessary electro-mechanical equipment has also not been dispatched from China to Nepal.“Even if one Chinese engineer is absent, or if one critical piece of equipment does not arrive from China, work stops,” says the <a href="http://www.ippan.org.np/public/page/ippan-committee" target="_blank" rel="noopener">President of the Independent Power Producers’ Association</a> Shailendra Guragain. “If the situation worsens, we may be seeing losses amounting to a billion dollars in our projects.”Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-climate-connection-to-covid-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The climate connection to Covid-19</a>, Rastraraj Bhandari

Nepal’s economy, already weak, takes direct hit

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Nepal is graduating to become a developing country on 24 November 2026 after half-century in the Least Developed Country (LDC) category. By 2030, the country hopes to transition to middle-income status.&nbsp; Everone from Prime Minister K P Oli have boasted that this is a matter of national pride, and will have a multiplier impact on trade and economy.&nbsp; But will it make any difference to the average Nepali? Not unless improved governance <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/why-invest-in-nepal">spurs investment and creates jobs</a>.&nbsp; Countries need to meet at least two of the three criteria in two consecutive triennial reviews to be eligible for graduation from LDC. Nepal has consistently met the thresholds for the Human Assets Index (HAI) and the Economic and Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) in 2015, 2018, and 2021. But Nepal was recommended for graduation before meeting the per capita <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-great-income-divide">Gross National Income (GNI)</a> threshold of $1,306. “A major implication of LDC graduation is the loss of preferential market access available through Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) and other arrangements,” explains economist Sameer Khatiwada. “But over two-thirds of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-doesnt-produce-its-2-biggest-export-items">Nepal’s exports</a> are to India, and the preferential market access to India is through a bilateral trade agreement. This has nothing to do with our LDC status.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250815060832_f5eabe7628a8cdf84f33b25d7cef3c4dc8913a26d8e5b253ea52a36e176b8a85.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20250815060832_f5eabe7628a8cdf84f33b25d7cef3c4dc8913a26d8e5b253ea52a36e176b8a85" data-rendition-name="original" width="640" height="470" loading="lazy" alt="LDC graduation "> </figure>  Furthermore, a provision under the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) allows Nepal to export to India duty-free if the items are at least 30% value-added. Nepali traders take advantage of this by re-exporting edible oils without meeting that requirement, falsely boosting Nepal’s exports.“ Following graduation from LDC, the value addition threshold might increase to 40%,” says Kalpana Khanal of the Policy Research Institute. “This is supposed to work to our advantage, because on paper value addition inherently means <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/staying-home-to-create-jobs">job creation at home</a>.” But Nepal’s exports to other major destinations will face <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-and-the-us-india-tariff-tiff">tariff increases</a> with the graduation. A South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics and Environment (SWATEE) study shows that while tariff increase in the US market is relatively low (see page 5) it is considerably higher in Europe. The International Trade Centre (ITC) in a 2022 study also estimated that graduation could result in a 4.3% decline in Nepal’s projected exports, but this is excluding the impact of changes in ‘rules of origin’ provisions in preference-granting countries such as the UK and Europe.&nbsp; Nepal’s top export to these preference-granting countries is <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=1482">carpets</a>, and will not be impacted, but other items such as textiles and apparel will be heavily affected due to higher cost of production. The impact will felt mostly by small and medium enterprises which represent the largest share of exports to LDC-specific preference-granting countries. As for the service exports, Nepal never really made use of the World Trade Organization’s LDC services waiver anyway, hence the effect will be minimal, if any. There is also concern about Nepal’s graduation at a time when the global economy is topsy-turvy, amidst <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-point-in-us-india-relations">tariff wars and conflicts</a>. This affects Nepalis abroad directly and may impact <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/more-remittance-more-than-remittance">remittances </a>which hit $11 billion in 2024. In comparison, Nepal only received $350 million in foreign loans and grants last year.&nbsp; Tourism arrivals have finally reached pre-pandemic levels, but bad publicity about pollution, poor infrastructure and bureaucratic hurdles hinder further growth. Manufacturing continues to struggle, while hydropower and the IT sector have taken off.&nbsp; “Look at data -- <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/tourism-needs-a-new-push">tourism arrivals</a> are up, spending is up, IT exports are up, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/why-nepal-needs-to-restore-ev-tax-subsidy">EV sales </a>are up, Europe still needs 85-90 million skilled workers. We are sitting on $16 billion in cash reserves, our balance of payment, foreign exchange reserve, tax to GDP ratio, credit flow are all positive, we have to build on these factors,” says Sujeev Shakya of the Nepal Economic Forum. He adds: “Our mindset creates negativity to promote rent-seeking behaviour, but this cynicism will go away after 2026 with LDC graduation. We must deal with data, look at trends, and projects which will bring in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/from-the-nepali-press/why-there-is-no-foreign-investment-in-nepal">international investments</a>.” Khanal agrees that investment is not dependent on<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/backside/Nepal-not-the-least-developed-country,306"> LDC status</a>. The factors that that affect investment are policy stability, a strong legal framework, market potential and ease of doing business. She adds, “That is where our focus needs to be, and we need to retain <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/diaspora-diaries/migrant-worker-returns-to-create-work-at-home?fbclid=IwAR09xJfsClCwn8uRVAmz28CU658vdKpuyDwB_b1sNlvKtAFFnSldnA0JS2g">Nepalis with jobs at home</a> for our sustained growth.” After 2026, financing support from donors and aid agencies could be affected and Nepal will no longer be able to access Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) to adapt to the impacts of climate change. But the Global Environment Fund and Green Climate Fund will still be available.“ LDC status does not determine bilateral development aid, that is usually driven by broader <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/looking-beyond-two-boulders">geopolitical considerations</a>,” says Sameer Khatiwada. “The World Bank and Asian Development Bank, which provide concessional loans to Nepal, it is determined mainly by per capita income, not LDC status.” &nbsp;However, Nepal may lose some concessional terms for loans. Nepal is currently a lower-middle-income country as per the World Bank in the bracket for GNI between $1,036 and $4,045. The country is already receiving more loans than grants and in July the World Bank increased its interest rate on loans by 100% from 0.75 to 1.5%. “All this means that the impact of LDC graduation for Nepal might not be as earth-shattering as some tend to think. Countries that have recently graduated, such as Botswana and the Maldives, have shows that graduation is just a step in a country’s development path,” says Khatiwada. Sujeev Shakya also sees the glass as half full, explaining that LDC graduation is just a stepping stone if Nepal has the right policies in place. He adds, “Nepal’s biggest advantage is our<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/investing-in-people"> working age population</a> and we have investments coming in. These aided by how adaptive we are as a society are the very foundations on which Nepal will grow.”

Not poor, but not rich

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.

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Not poor, but not rich

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Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy