<figure><img width="1500" height="1125" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141156/636d02f09c7e80680e0a36a9jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption></figure>After nearly two years of nearly zero tourist arrivals and revenue, Nepal looks set to welcome international tourists again after the government on Thursday introduced <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-relaxes-entry-for-tourists/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-relaxes-entry-for-tourists/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1632570637352000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHnLyYWvLXJvsJU8eaBdNrKPZ6tVw">revised immigration</a> entry protocols. Tourists fully vaccinated against Covid, with the second dose 14 days before the date of travel, will no longer have to quarantine after landing in Kathmandu and can get visas <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-should-now-allow-visa-on-arrival/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-should-now-allow-visa-on-arrival/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1632570637352000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHjF2QHUC13ukwzJScBCBN92EtMBQ">on arrival</a>. Earlier, they had to get visas from Nepal’s missions abroad and quarantine for seven days at a hotel in Kathmandu at their own expense.Partially vaccinated and unvaccinated visitors will have to obtain visas from Nepal’s embassies in their home countries or elsewhere, and will still have to spend 10 days in a government approved hotel in Kathmandu and get a PCR negative test before they go out and about.Tourists coming via land, except Indians who are visa-exempt, must arrive with their visas from Nepali diplomatic missions and be subject to a negative antigen test at the Chinese or Indian borders. “The government looked at the current trend of Covid infections, transmission and disease control to reach this decision,” says spokesperson of the Immigration Department Jhanka Nath Dhakal. “Entry of fully vaccinated tourists becomes easier as a lot of additional paperwork can be avoided.”   However, all visitors, including fully vaccinated ones will have to present a negative PCR or other test report done not longer than 72 hours before their flight, and bring a printout of the international arrival form at <a href="http://www.ccmc.gov.np/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.ccmc.gov.np/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1632570637352000&amp;usg=AFQjCNETnSNgD6N7OXNBWaTNnPNsbVT4UQ">www.ccmc.gov.np</a> to immigration for visa on arrival.The new protocols were issued even though the Covid-19 Crisis Management Committee (CCMC) itself does not have legal standing because an ordinance establishing it has lapsed because of the continued political impasse in Parliament.Nepal’s tourism industry had been lobbying strongly with the government to ease restrictions as the case load and fatalities in Kathmandu drop, and the vaccinate rate goes up in countries from where most visitors come to Nepal.  They argued that millions of jobs were at stake, investors were defaulting on loans for hotels, airlines and restaurants and the government was losing the $800 million it used to earn a year from tourism prior to the pandemic. <img width="1920" height="1080" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141156/636d02f59c7e80680e0a36aajpeg.jpg" alt="">Members of the tourism industry had criticized <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/call-to-ease-entry-of-tourists-to-nepal/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/call-to-ease-entry-of-tourists-to-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1632570637352000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHqIs-F1N3YhbPuKTGkxsfontRJvw">earlier entry regulations</a> as being cumbersome and confusing, detracting potential visitors. For example, tourists needed to submit NTB or Department of Tourism-approved travel itineraries to obtain visas on-arrival while quarantining for seven days.  As a result, only tourists with well-connected agents could arrange the paperwork and arrive easily. Travel trade stakeholders complained of arbitrary visa requirements and ad hoc decision making.  While most tourists were previously discouraged by the convoluted regulations, news of the revised protocol has generated an overwhelmingly positive response.  Deepak Raj Joshi, the former CEO of the Nepal Tourism Board (NTB) is glad the government finally took the decision.“The tourism industry is now buoyant, stakeholders are pleased and demand from potential tourists is massive, so we must aggressively and effectively communicate the return of Nepali tourism into source markets,” Joshi says.  A streamlined entry process is a much-needed boost for tourism, one of the sectors hit hardest by Covid. Nepal got nearly 1.2 million tourists in 2019, but this figure dropped to only 220,000 in 2020 – mot of them who had arrived before the lockdown in March that year. So far this year, there have been only 70,000 visitors – most are either mountaineers or repeat trekkers, or those familiar with Nepal and have some connections here. <figure><img width="935" height="398" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141156/636d02f89c7e80680e0a36abjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Tourist arrivals in Nepal from January to November 2020. Data: NEPAL TOURISM BOARD</figcaption></figure>Despite the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/survive-2020-revive-in-2021-and-thrive-in-2022/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/survive-2020-revive-in-2021-and-thrive-in-2022/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1632570637352000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEO67ibb82phNtJ_SPK2OBPcSmA1g">socio-economic fallout </a>from the pandemic, the tourism industry has prepared well to host tourists again. Vaccine penetration in the hospitality sector is high, and the new, simplified entry requirements are the next step in restoring a “new normal” for tourism alongside Covid in the long-run.Most frontliners working the tourism industry are already vaccinated, and in popular destinations such as Langtang, workers as well as locals are jabbed. Trekking and mountaineering may soon continue as normal, with expedition groups usually no larger than 20-30 members and everyone involved inoculated.There has been a trickle of trekkers coming to Nepal even under the older stricter rules, and there are expedition already at base camps of various mountains including Manaslu, Dhaulagiri and Kangchenjunga. There have been no climbing permits issued for Mt Everest.“Lobbying is underway to implement a ‘V-to-V’, vaccinated-to-vaccinated tourism model whereby vaccinated guests are hosted by vaccinated hospitality services,” says Joshi. Such a model is particularly relevant for tourists coming overland through border cities such as Birganj, Biratnagar and Nepalganj and have high vaccination rates, and the visiting Indians themselves are increasingly getting inoculated. Tourism as an industry is based on trust and hospitality as it sells services, leaving no room for negligence and error. This makes it a relatively safer sector than others, says Joshi. “If a tourism-based business doesn’t follow health guidelines and helps spread disease, it loses trust and trade for life, making the entire industry cautious and aware,” he says. “That the government readily allowed crowded religious processions to go on while stalling on safe tourism speaks volumes on flawed planning.” <img width="1448" height="2048" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141156/636d02fa9c7e80680e0a36acjpeg.jpg" alt="">Elsewhere, on-arrival visas have also been resumed for those returning for funerals of relatives, those who are convalescing, or returning to care for elderly citizens – but they have to produce negative Covid tests and recommendations from local governments and hospitals. On-arrival visas are also on offer for returning non-resident Nepalis and foreigners married to Nepali nationals. Nationals of the following countries will need to have visas before they arrive in Kathmandu: Zimbabwe, Swaziland, Cameroon, Somalia, Liberia, Nigeria, Ghana, Ethiopia, Iraq, Palestine, Afghanistan and Syria.

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Nepal reopening for tourists

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101152/636b78a69c7e80680e0646b2jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1000" height="763"/><figcaption>Photo: BIKRAM RAI</figcaption></figure>With business coming to a grinding halt globally due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Nepal’s migration and tourism-based economy is being severely impacted.Global stock markets are in freefall, the US has halted trans-Atlantic flights, Italy is in lockdown, India has stopped issuing tourist visas, schools in Japan are closed, Qatar has banned nationals from 14 countries, Saudi Arabia has halted travel to nine countries, and although the virus has stabilised in next-door China, there is a danger there of reverse infection.But as the epidemic spreads, Nepal has officially admitted to only one confirmed case of COVID-19. Public health experts say this does not mean there are no infected people, it just means suspected cases have not been tested yet. They say the country is not prepared to deal with an outbreak.“The situation around the world is getting out of hand, but Nepal has been able to dodge a full-blown health crisis till now,” says Sameer M Dixit, a scientist at the Centre for Molecular Dynamics Nepal. “In an ideal situation the country would be under lockdown, but right now Nepal should stop all direct flights from highly affected countries.”Even though there are no overt signs of a health crisis, Nepal’s economy has already been hit hard and the impact is expected to worsen in the coming months as tourism collapses and air travel is further curtailed.The Asian Development Bank’s ‘<a href="https://www.adb.org/publications/economic-impact-covid19-developing-asia" target="_blank" rel="noopener">COVID-19 Economic Impact Assessment Template</a>’ released this week lays out the best- and worst-case scenarios for countries in the region. For Nepal, the bank predicts a loss of up to $322 million.The tourism sector has been impacted by travel restrictions imposed by Nepal and other countries, and airlines cancelling flights.The government decision late Thursday, after the print edition of this paper had gone to press, decided to revoke visa on arrival at Kathmandu for nationals of all countries. Visitors will still be allowed to enter Nepal but they will require a visa from a Nepali mission abroad and also a Coronavirus-free health certificate. The visa rule be effective 14 March to 30 April for now.The move comes one day after China cancelled all expeditions from its side of Mt Everest. The Nepali government has also cancelled all climbing expedition permits including Mt Everest for the spring season.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/why-nepal-must-watch-about-coronavirus-but-not-panic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Why Nepal must watch Coronavirus, but not panic</a>, Sameer M DixitEven before the government <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/lets-call-off-visit-nepal-year-2020/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">called off Visit Nepal Year 2020</a>, the campaign was criticised for lack of international promotion and the money being wasted on domestic extravaganza. Although tourist arrivals saw only a slight drop to 101,400 in February, there was a 80% decrease in visitors from China.Official figures are not yet available for March and April, but the travel industry is reporting widespread cancellations. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-postpones-international-events-as-fear-of-covid-19-intensifies/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Many international conferences and sports events have been postponed</a>. Hotel occupancy rates are dropping at what should have been peak season. Trekking and mountaineering expeditions have gone ahead but there has been a 50% decline in the number of clients. There are also reports of cancellations for April.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101152/636b78a99c7e80680e0646b3jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="981" height="497"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>“Hotel bookings are down by 60% in the 5-star hotels around Nepal,” Shreejana Rana, President of <a href="https://www.hotelassociationnepal.org.np/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Hotel Association of Nepal</a>, told Nepali Times. “We had <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/chinese-tourist-influx-to-nepal-in-2020/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">expected a surge in bookings </a>after Chinese New Year and during the spring from American and European tourists but that isn’t the case.”The first airlines to cancel flights were the ones operating to Chinese destinations: Himalaya Airlines, Sichuan Airlines and Tibet Airlines. Air China, China Southern and China Eastern are still operating flights, but with reduced frequency and smaller aircraft.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101152/636b78ab9c7e80680e0646b4jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="4096" height="2730"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101152/636b78ae9c7e80680e0646b5jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3644" height="2429"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>“The tourism industry is very sensitive. The smallest problem has widespread impact, and it takes a lot of time to recover from it,” says Deepak Raj Joshi, former CEO of <a href="https://www.welcomenepal.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal Tourism Board</a>. “We need to start preparing for the future right away.”The Tourism Ministry is now repurposing <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/the-nepal-brand/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Visit Nepal Year 2020</a> towards a 2020-2030 ‘Tourism Decade’, and the hotel industry is relying on domestic promotion, encouraging Nepalis to travel to Pokhara and to go trekking during the new-year break in April.Nepal expects about 250 climbers from 24 expeditions on Mt Everest this spring, even though Korean, Japanese and some western expeditions have cancelled. This is half down from last year, when there was a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/most-days-its-not-so-crowded-on-mt-everest/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">notorious traffic jam on the summit</a>. On Wednesday, China closed its side of the mountain due to the COVID-19 scare.“Everest expeditions are starting soon but we are still trying to figure out what to do if the mountaineers catch coronavirus during the trip,” says Sarita Lama of the <a href="https://www.taan.org.np/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Trekking Agencies’ Association of Nepal (TAAN)</a>. “This is so bad it may take us years to recover from the crisis.” Trek bookings are also at half of last year’s numbers.Nepal’s main source of foreign exchange, its <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/for-nepals-migrant-workers-good-news-in-small-bites/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">two million workers abroad</a>, will also be hit. Qatar this week imposed a ban on workers from 14 countries, including Nepal. Nepal is preventing workers from flying to South Korea.The High-Level Coordination Committee also decided on Thursday to stop issuing labour permits for Nepali migrants seeking to go abroad for work. It is uncertain when the migration ban will be lifted.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/labour-mobility/crossborder-virus-and-nepali-migrant-workers/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Crossborder virus and Nepali migrant workers</a>, Upasana KhadkaNepal’s major infrastructure projects all face delays because of the reliance on Chinese contractors and workers. The start of the epidemic in January coincided with Chinese New Year, which meant that workers at new airport projects in Pokhara, Bhairawa and numerous hydropower plants under construction who had gone home could not return.Even among those who have returned, some have been quarantined, including 70 who work on Pokhara’s new airport. If given the all-clear, they will be released only on 16 March.“Although work has slowed down these past couple of months, we will work night and day to meet the target completion date of July 2021,” Pokhara airport manager Binesh Munakarmi assured Nepali Times.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101152/636b78b19c7e80680e0646b6jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3000" height="1688"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Construction at Bhairawa airport, which was scheduled to open later this year, is expected to be delayed.“Many of our engineers and workers have not been able to come back to Nepal,” says Bhairawa airport project chief Prabesh Adhikari. “There are about 25 Chinese workers on site and we are trying to move construction forward, but we need the rest to return.”The timely completion of<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/reservoirs-of-suspicion/hydropower-geopolitics%20,3991" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> hydropower projects</a>, of which 65 have the involvement of Chinese companies, looks more bleak. Construction at 25 of these under-construction projects have not resumed since Chinese New Year. Workers have not been allowed to travel out of China, and necessary electro-mechanical equipment has also not been dispatched from China to Nepal.“Even if one Chinese engineer is absent, or if one critical piece of equipment does not arrive from China, work stops,” says the <a href="http://www.ippan.org.np/public/page/ippan-committee" target="_blank" rel="noopener">President of the Independent Power Producers’ Association</a> Shailendra Guragain. “If the situation worsens, we may be seeing losses amounting to a billion dollars in our projects.”Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-climate-connection-to-covid-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The climate connection to Covid-19</a>, Rastraraj Bhandari

Nepal’s economy, already weak, takes direct hit

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

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