<figure><img width="2048" height="1364" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181140/636be6219c7e80680e08778bjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: MONIKA DEUPALA</figcaption></figure>Going by the Ministry of Health figures, Nepal’s Covid-19 pandemic has peaked, and the number of daily cases, the positivity rate and the number of active cases are all going down. The recovery rate now exceeds 90%. Is Nepal turning the corner on the pandemic? Experts say no. The number of fatalities is at an all-time high. There were 29 deaths reported each on Monday and Tuesday, taking the total to 1,538. And the reason the daily case rate is lower is because the government is conducting fewer tests, there is virtually no official contact tracing, and active cases are at home and going to hospital only when they are really serious. These are ideal conditions for community spread. “The fact that the fatalities are increasing, especially in Kathmandu, won’t allow us to say that fewer people are getting infected. This coronavirus isn’t going anywhere just yet,” explains Sher Bahadur Pun of the Ministry of Health. “Yes, the positivity rate has gone down, but the government has also more or less stopped contact tracing.” Since the government started charging for RT PCR tests and hospital admissions, patients and their families are reluctant to have tests despite symptoms, and do not want to go to hospital. The rates have remained high because <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/heat-map-of-nepals-covid-19-hotspots/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">those infected during Dasain-Tihar</a> are developing symptoms. The current marriage season is another super-spreader event.   There are 77 hospitals and labs across the country conducting an average of  9,000 PCR tests a day, which went down from a daily total of 15,000 after the government directive to charge Rs2,000 for PCR tests in public facilities. The positivity rate went down, which is a good thing – but it happened for the wrong reason. In October a quarter of people tested came out positive, it is now down to 15% despite the onset of the winter season.   “The risk cannot be underestimated based on numbers of infected people by reducing tests itself at a time when increasingly more people are getting sick or dying of coronavirus,” says infectious diseases specialist Pravat Adhikari. “This argument would be valid only if the infection rate goes down despite an increase in total tests. However, very few tests are being conducted at the moment.” In fact, such hidden positives lead to more unidentified Covid-19 deaths, adding to the risk. It is reckless of the government to still not launch low-cost PCR tests with quick results, adds Adhikari. <figure><img width="2340" height="1216" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181140/636be6249c7e80680e08778cjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Total Covid-19 cases from January 23 until 1 December in Province 2 and in Bagmati province. Source: MINISTRY OF HEALTH</figcaption></figure>The problem is further exacerbated by unmanaged home isolation, and quarantine cases. According to the Ministry of Health, 10,741 people across seven provinces are self-isolating at home, often without much resources or knowledge on how to manage their condition.Ideally, asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/kathmandu-homes-and-hotels-turn-into-hospitals/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">people self-isolating at homes</a> should have a separate room and a bathroom. Patients should confine themselves in their rooms, wash their own utensils, wear masks while going to the toilet and sanitise it after use and wipe touch points with disinfectant.  Individuals need to keep track of their temperature and symptoms, measure oxygen saturation level if possible, take paracetamol for body ache and fever and make sure to eat nutritious food. One must be aware of danger signs: oxygen level below 93, chest pain, difficulty in breathing and blue tint to lips and limbs.But most families who have members in home isolation do not have this information, or live in such crowded quarters that it is impossible to fulfil all precautions. Conflicting directives from the government haven’t helped.At one point, overwhelmed with the surge of Covid-19 cases in Kathmandu, the Ministry of Health spokesperson Jageswar Gautam advised people live on television to go to hospital only if they feel faint. By then it is too late because it means the patient’s oxygen saturation is already dangerously low.The government has left the people to their own devices, and ignored expert advice on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-will-nepals-covid-vaccine-turn-come/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">increasing the number of beds in wards with basic oxygen supply</a> instead of spending money on ICUs and ventilators."When I tested positive for coronavirus and had slight difficulty breathing, I called a government health expert for advice, and he himself dissuaded me from going to a public hospital," says Rajendra Dahal, Editor of the magazine Shiskyak. “This is why the death rate is going up, while the positive totals are going down. People are at home, and their oxygen levels are falling, and they have no idea. The main point is that the people have lost their trust in the government health system.”The chief consultant at the Infectious Diseases Hospital in Teku Anup Bastola agrees that the risk has been heightened because health experts are unaware about the actual condition of people isolating at homes. “Nepalis have a tendency to not visit hospitals until it’s too late. We have found that this is even more true for coronavirus,” he says. With much of the 2020 overshadowed by the pandemic and its impact on all the sectors, young people wanting to get back to their lives are now ignoring the signs and symptoms, preferring not to voluntarily test in case they might have to isolate for two weeks.Even according to government figures, the number of people testing positive in Kathmandu Valley is not going down. With the marriage season, and people intermingling indoor in banquet halls, the surge is not expected to subside. At Pashupati Aryaghat, there are five times more <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/with-3rd-covid-19-fatality-nepal-issues-funeral-guideline/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">cremations</a> happening compared to the same period last year, according to reports. It is not clear how many of these extra deaths are due to Covid-19.The movement of the younger people has had a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/spared-at-first-elderly-hit-hard-by-covid-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">direct impact on the elderly</a>, as they take home the virus and make parents and grandparents seriously sick. People in their sixties and above now make up over 60% of Covid-19 fatalities in Nepal.Even without the added risk of coronavirus, senior citizens are prone to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/covid-19-will-get-worse-before-it-gets-better/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">pneumonia and other chronic respiratory illness in winter</a>. Public health experts advise being alert in regards to their condition even before they complain of symptoms and keeping communication channels open.Says Sher Bahadur Pun: “These are extraordinary times and we need to take extraordinary measures to protect the more vulnerable among us. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/vax-populi/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Until we get a vaccine</a>, we must realise our responsibility in containing the virus and not become a medium for more deaths.”

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Why Nepal’s Covid-19 figures are deceptive

<figure><img width="2048" height="1364" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110919118/636bed424b0ad905ca02eed4jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: MONIKA DEUPALA</figcaption></figure>Going by the Ministry of Health figures, Nepal’s Covid-19 pandemic has peaked, and the number of daily cases, the positivity rate and the number of active cases are all going down. The recovery rate now exceeds 90%. Is Nepal turning the corner on the pandemic? Experts say no. The number of fatalities is at an all-time high. There were 29 deaths reported each on Monday and Tuesday, taking the total to 1,538. And the reason the daily case rate is lower is because the government is conducting fewer tests, there is virtually no official contact tracing, and active cases are at home and going to hospital only when they are really serious. These are ideal conditions for community spread. “The fact that the fatalities are increasing, especially in Kathmandu, won’t allow us to say that fewer people are getting infected. This coronavirus isn’t going anywhere just yet,” explains Sher Bahadur Pun of the Ministry of Health. “Yes, the positivity rate has gone down, but the government has also more or less stopped contact tracing.” Since the government started charging for RT PCR tests and hospital admissions, patients and their families are reluctant to have tests despite symptoms, and do not want to go to hospital. The rates have remained high because <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/heat-map-of-nepals-covid-19-hotspots/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">those infected during Dasain-Tihar</a> are developing symptoms. The current marriage season is another super-spreader event.   There are 77 hospitals and labs across the country conducting an average of  9,000 PCR tests a day, which went down from a daily total of 15,000 after the government directive to charge Rs2,000 for PCR tests in public facilities. The positivity rate went down, which is a good thing – but it happened for the wrong reason. In October a quarter of people tested came out positive, it is now down to 15% despite the onset of the winter season.   “The risk cannot be underestimated based on numbers of infected people by reducing tests itself at a time when increasingly more people are getting sick or dying of coronavirus,” says infectious diseases specialist Pravat Adhikari. “This argument would be valid only if the infection rate goes down despite an increase in total tests. However, very few tests are being conducted at the moment.” In fact, such hidden positives lead to more unidentified Covid-19 deaths, adding to the risk. It is reckless of the government to still not launch low-cost PCR tests with quick results, adds Adhikari. <figure><img width="2340" height="1216" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110919118/636bed454b0ad905ca02eed5jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The problem is further exacerbated by unmanaged home isolation, and quarantine cases. According to the Ministry of Health, 10,741 people across seven provinces are self-isolating at home, often without much resources or knowledge on how to manage their condition.Ideally, asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/kathmandu-homes-and-hotels-turn-into-hospitals/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">people self-isolating at homes</a> should have a separate room and a bathroom. Patients should confine themselves in their rooms, wash their own utensils, wear masks while going to the toilet and sanitise it after use and wipe touch points with disinfectant.  Individuals need to keep track of their temperature and symptoms, measure oxygen saturation level if possible, take paracetamol for body ache and fever and make sure to eat nutritious food. One must be aware of danger signs: oxygen level below 93, chest pain, difficulty in breathing and blue tint to lips and limbs.But most families who have members in home isolation do not have this information, or live in such crowded quarters that it is impossible to fulfil all precautions. Conflicting directives from the government haven’t helped.At one point, overwhelmed with the surge of Covid-19 cases in Kathmandu, the Ministry of Health spokesperson Jageswar Gautam advised people live on television to go to hospital only if they feel faint. By then it is too late because it means the patient’s oxygen saturation is already dangerously low.The government has left the people to their own devices, and ignored expert advice on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-will-nepals-covid-vaccine-turn-come/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">increasing the number of beds in wards with basic oxygen supply</a> instead of spending money on ICUs and ventilators."When I tested positive for coronavirus and had slight difficulty breathing, I called a government health expert for advice, and he himself dissuaded me from going to a public hospital," says Rajendra Dahal, Editor of the magazine Shiskyak. “This is why the death rate is going up, while the positive totals are going down. People are at home, and their oxygen levels are falling, and they have no idea. The main point is that the people have lost their trust in the government health system.”The chief consultant at the Infectious Diseases Hospital in Teku Anup Bastola agrees that the risk has been heightened because health experts are unaware about the actual condition of people isolating at homes. “Nepalis have a tendency to not visit hospitals until it’s too late. We have found that this is even more true for coronavirus,” he says. With much of the 2020 overshadowed by the pandemic and its impact on all the sectors, young people wanting to get back to their lives are now ignoring the signs and symptoms, preferring not to voluntarily test in case they might have to isolate for two weeks.Even according to government figures, the number of people testing positive in Kathmandu Valley is not going down. With the marriage season, and people intermingling indoor in banquet halls, the surge is not expected to subside. At Pashupati Aryaghat, there are five times more <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/with-3rd-covid-19-fatality-nepal-issues-funeral-guideline/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">cremations</a> happening compared to the same period last year, according to reports. It is not clear how many of these extra deaths are due to Covid-19.The movement of the younger people has had a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/spared-at-first-elderly-hit-hard-by-covid-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">direct impact on the elderly</a>, as they take home the virus and make parents and grandparents seriously sick. People in their sixties and above now make up over 60% of Covid-19 fatalities in Nepal.Even without the added risk of coronavirus, senior citizens are prone to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/covid-19-will-get-worse-before-it-gets-better/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">pneumonia and other chronic respiratory illness in winter</a>. Public health experts advise being alert in regards to their condition even before they complain of symptoms and keeping communication channels open.Says Sher Bahadur Pun: “These are extraordinary times and we need to take extraordinary measures to protect the more vulnerable among us. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/vax-populi/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Until we get a vaccine</a>, we must realise our responsibility in containing the virus and not become a medium for more deaths.”

Sonia Awale

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.

Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy

French citizen Louis arrived in Nepal for the first time earlier this year, planning to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/the-abcs-of-a-winter-trek-in-nepal">trek the Annapurna Circuit </a>before heading down to Bardia to hopefully catch a glimpse of some<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-counting-its-tigers"> tigers</a>. Before he began his journey from Besisahar, Louis (who only revealed his first name) had imagined breathing crisp mountain air, and following the melodious gurgle of the Marsyangdi.&nbsp; Instead, he had to breathe fumes and dust all the way to Chame. Louis says he masked his face with a handkerchief: “It was not what I expected, this is not right.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080304080_f03fce1527cf8a63178e4e82589a1a7096c8cfa28893ca4a5f7fe82d91a6e38a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="2025080304080_f03fce1527cf8a63178e4e82589a1a7096c8cfa28893ca4a5f7fe82d91a6e38a" data-rendition-name="original" width="2419" height="1814" loading="lazy" alt="Manang trails NT 1"> </figure>  Many other trekkers are similarly disappointed as roads have been built along what used to be <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/a-walk-back-in-time-chandragiri-hatiban">walking trails</a>. Manang and Humla are the last remote regions in the Himalaya to be connected to the national road network. &nbsp;Construction of the 87km Besisahar-Manang road began in 1994, but was stalled during <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/14-years-after-conflict-no-closure-in-nepal">the Maoist conflic</a>t, and finally finished in 2012.&nbsp; Most of it has not yet been blacktopped, and sections have been carved out of vertical cliff faces, making them treacherous. But it has allowed road access to Manang, a journey that previously took a week on foot.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080304084_32b3ca875a0df9f1dd42dbe915e6f6a2cd4f2e53f1cf2d3ee5cbdb3435905000.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="2025080304084_32b3ca875a0df9f1dd42dbe915e6f6a2cd4f2e53f1cf2d3ee5cbdb3435905000" data-rendition-name="original" width="2400" height="1505" loading="lazy" alt="Manang trails NT 1"> </figure>  While the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-road-out-of-nepal">road has improved access</a>, it has impacted on<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/trekking-in-the-time-of-climate-change"> trekking tourism </a>— the mainstay of Manang’s economy. The number of tourists visiting the scenic valley behind the Annapurnas grew from 21,245 in 2023 to 30,866 in 2024. The Annapurna Circuit is known for unique sights like <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=9194">Tilicho</a>, one of the highest lakes in the world, the Thorong La pass that connects Manang to Mustang, and the valley’s own rich cultural heritage. Thorong La at 5,416m is the highest hiking pass in the world, and was used by locals for trade with Mustang before it became a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/lift-restrictions-on-upper-mustang">popular trekking route</a>. &nbsp; “For guests, the excitement of reaching Thorong La is now overshadowed by their disappointment of having to journey through dusty roads to get there,” says Manang lodge-owner Ongma Gurung. “That is the complaint we get the most.” <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/tourism-that-treads-lightly-on-the-land">Local tourism </a>operators are trying to get the government to build alternative foot trails. But there have been delays due to a lack of budget.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080304084_c5f76e398182785bb17846a148e3ca89de5687b4623580f8e2d725a7a287edfa.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="2025080304084_c5f76e398182785bb17846a148e3ca89de5687b4623580f8e2d725a7a287edfa" data-rendition-name="original" width="2419" height="1762" loading="lazy" alt="Manang trails"> </figure>  The Naso Rural Municipality has identified other routes along the Annapurna Circuit in Chyamche, Tal, and Khotro so trekkers can bypass heavy vehicles involved in the construction of the Manang-Marsyangdi Hydropower Project. “But the local government cannot do everything,” admits the chair Dhan Bahadur Gurung. “And for leaders in Kathmandu, Manang is out of sight and out of mind.” Munindra Jung Gurung represents Manang in the Gandaki Provincial Assembly, and says he has raised the issue in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/pokhara-s-tourism-woes">Pokhara</a>. He is hopeful there will be a hearing. To be sure, the road is not all bad news. Locals benefit, the number of visitors has grown, and trekkers can now also save time and use it to explore <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=5960">side valleys in Manang</a>, visiting the villages like Nar and Phu. Annapurna Conservation Area (ACA) chief Rabin Kadariya concedes that the road to Upper Manang was crucial to connect the remote region with the rest of Nepal, but adds: “We have built an alternative trail connecting Talgaun, and we will consult local communities about their priorities on other hiking trails.”&nbsp;

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