<figure><img width="1400" height="933" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171132/636933619c7e80680e03df95jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption></figure>Next week as Nepalis celebrate Tihar, the festival of lights, few will remember that it will mark the second anniversary of the end of paralysing power cuts.Sometimes lasting up to 18 hours a day, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/how-they-kept-nepal-in-the-dark-ages/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">load-shedding</a> increased the people’s hardship and crippled the economy. The man credited for ending power cuts, <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/interview/interview-with-Kulman-Ghising,3409" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kulman Ghising</a> of the Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) said this week: “Light up your houses this Tihar, there is enough electricity.”The NEA estimates that demand next week will peak at 1,270 MW, but Ghising says there is enough supply from domestic generation and <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/nepal-india-thermal-power,3570" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Indian imports</a> to meet it. Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-climax/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate climax</a>, Editorial <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/from-a-fossil-past-to-an-electric-future/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">From a fossil past to an electric future</a>, Om Astha Rai <img width="327" height="327" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171132/636933649c7e80680e03df96jpeg.jpg" alt="">The reason for Ghising’s confidence is that 30MW has been added this year, his efforts to manage supply and cut leakage have increased capacity, and the Kulekhani reservoir is full. Even all this would not have ensured enough power – the real reason there will not be a dark Tihar is because of electricity imports from India.This year, Nepal’s electricity demand reached 1,281MW, but domestic generation never exceeded 525MW. The shortfall was made up by importing up to 505MW of electricity from coal-fired thermal plants in Bihar. Even with that, industries and some districts still suffered power cuts. The end to <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/corruption-in-electricity-industry-of-Nepal,3408" target="_blank" rel="noopener">load-shedding</a> has come at great environmental and economic cost. The average per capita carbon footprint of Nepalis is still low, but it has doubled because of fossil energy bought from India. The electricity import bill this year added Rs20 billion to the Rs150 billion Nepal was already spending to buy petroleum products from India.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/decarbonise-now/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Decarbonise now</a>, Ajaya Dixit<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/electri-city-cars/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Electri-City Cars</a>, Sikuma RaiThe government defends the power import, arguing that it is only a stop-gap measure and transmission lines built to import electricity from India can later be used to export Nepal’s surplus power to the Indian market.Former Minister of Water Resources Dipak Gyawali says that is not likely to happen because Nepal’s electricity demand is growing 100MW per year, and there is a lot of suppressed demand that not even big projects like Tama Kosi (440MW) can cover.Instead of building cross-border transmission lines, Gyawali urges the NEA to focus on connecting small hydro projects to the national grid to meet future domestic growth in consumption for cooking and transportation.Sadly, even while importing electricity generated from dirty coal from India, NEA cannot buy clean hydropower from private plants like the 6MW Khani Khola because they do not have transmission lines connecting them to the grid.Says one hydropower investor: “This is the irony of it all: we want to sell our electricity to NEA, but it is buying power from India.”

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The cost of light

<figure><img width="1400" height="1190" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171132/6369335b9c7e80680e03df92jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Catroon: DIWAKAR CHETTRI</figcaption></figure>Forget the horror movies, no more science fiction, stop watching post-apocalyptic Hollywood. We have the real thing coming to a planet near you.If things were not scary enough, the latest report from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released in Incheon earlier this month paints a terrifying picture of a dying Earth.This year saw record heat waves and droughts across Europe, Australia, Japan and the United States. Every new hurricane and typhoon breaks world records for wind speed. The hottest years since records started being kept were in the last 10 years, but 2018 was just a trailer of what is to come.If the current pace of warming continues, millions will start dying in heat waves across northern India and sub-Saharan Africa by the middle of the century. Droughts, flash floods and storms will be even more intense and frequent, there will be water shortages leading to starvation and famine. Coral reefs will all die, affecting fish populations. Sea level rise will submerge coastal cities, a fourth of Bangladesh’s land area will go underwater, the Maldives will disappear. Nepal’s mountains and glaciers will lose much of their permanent ice.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-cost-of-light/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The cost of light</a>, Om Astha Rai <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=15778&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Electri-city Cars</a>, Sikuma Rai <img width="327" height="327" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171132/6369335e9c7e80680e03df93jpeg.jpg" alt="">And that is probably the best-case scenario if warming cannot be capped at 1.5o by 2040. In reality, it will probably exceed 2o. By the end of the century, we are looking at average global temperatures at 4o warmer – this means we should replace the term climate change with ‘climate collapse’.Many of us who have been writing about the climate for the past decades have been called ‘alarmists’ or ‘fear mongers’, but this time it is the scientists who are panicking. The reason is that at a time when action on emission reduction is urgent, populist climate deniers are being elected in democracies across the world. It is getting so scary, citizens and politicians are burying their heads in the sand.These alarming changes have happened with just an average 1o warming since the industrial age. The IPCC report makes clear that in the next decades, whether the warming is 1.5o or 2o will make a world of a difference – 1.5o means heat waves will be less severe meaning millions will not die, the polar ice caps will not melt as fast, fewer plants and animals will become extinct, sea level will not rise by as much, fewer coral reefs will bleach. However, the report warns that governments only have 12 more years to implement measures so that global warming will be less than 1.5o.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=15756&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">From a fossil past to an electric future</a>, Om Astha Rai<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=15845&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Decarbonise now</a>, Ajay DixitNow that we know how bad things are, what are we going to do about it in Nepal? For years we have argued that since we did not create the problem, and what we do is not going to save the planet, we should just try to adapt. But, as a new report State of Climate Action in Nepal shows, Nepal also needs to take mitigation action – not so much to slow global warming, but to save the country’s economy from collapse.Despite international treaties Nepal has signed, and successive governments paying lip service to a renewable economy, the country’s fossil energy imports are soaring, including through electricity imports from thermal plants in India. Solar and biogas programs have languished, and there has been nearly no tangible progress on electric public transport.‘Nepal’s move towards a sustainably renewable future is sluggish, and indeed often regressively heading towards more fossil fuel addiction,’ the report concludes.The most glaring lapse is in sustainable harnessing of Nepal’s hydropower. Chronic governance failure and sheer stupidity of our rulers have resulted in Nepal now importing half its electricity from Indian coal-fired plants, doubling our carbon footprint. New hydropower plants are expected to add 2,000MW in the next two years, but these will barely meet suppressed demands and since they are all run-of-river schemes, the winter power shortage will continue.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/climate-for-change/the-great-himalayan-thaw/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The great Himalayan Thaw</a>, Ajay Dixit<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/interview/interview-with-david-molden-icimod,3074" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepalis paying price for climate change</a>The number of vehicles is nearing 3 million, with public transport vehicles making up less than 3% of the total, and the number of electric vehicles is negligible. There is weak political will to promote more efficient and reliable public transport because of the lobbying power of bus syndicates. Although taxes for electric vehicles have been slashed (see page 8-9), there is no sign of a proactive strategy to wean transportation from fossil fuels.All this is impacting public health due to a proliferation of two-wheelers and lack of emission controls. The poor condition of roads and highways has decreased the efficiency of vehicular transport, but has increased pollution levels.Much more worrying is that Nepal’s annual spending on petroleum products has <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/from-a-fossil-past-to-an-electric-future/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">more than doubled in the last two years</a>, increasing our trade imbalance with India. Flawed energy policy is not just ruining the environment and bankrupting the country, it is also increasing Nepal’s political vulnerability to the outside world.Read also: <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/reservoirs-of-suspicion/hydropower-geopolitics%20,3991" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reservoirs of suspicion</a>, Om Astha Rai<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/Comment/storing-water-reservoir-Nepal,1042" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Storing water</a>, Bishal Thapa <h2> 10 years ago this week</h2> In the #423 issue of Nepali Times  of 31 October-6 November 2008, the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=15330#.W9vq2dUzbIU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Editorial</a> dealt with the elected Maoist government getting back to business after the holidays on the mattter of integration of thier milita with the national Army. Excerpt: 'Government formation, the prime minister's foreign trips, then there was Dasain-Tihar. Finally, there are no more excuses for the government to start governing. But there is one more potential distraction: army integration. The January deadline for UNMIN's mandate is beginning to focus everyone's minds on dismantling cantonments and containers. Those bankrolling the UN are not in the mood for another extension.Given the extreme posturing and grandstanding by doctrinaire Maoists led by Defence Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa and the centre-right supporters of status quoists in the Nepal Army, integration won't be easy. Thapa's rash public pronouncements, and the kangresis whipping up a storm over rumours they heard that Nanda Kishore Pun was being proposed as army chief has needlessly polarised the debate.'  <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/423" data-elementor-open-lightbox=""> <img width="640" height="1014" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171132/6369335e9c7e80680e03df94jpeg.jpg" alt=""></a>

Climate Climax

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171132/636933719c7e80680e03df9bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="650" height="581"/>The conclusion of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/on-thin-ice-in-the-khumbu/">Global Warming</a> of 1.5ºC could not have been more blunt: human-induced global warming poses an existential threat to the planet. And to Nepal.To avert this, the report has called for pathways that look unachievable. The US government has already indicated it will withdraw from the 2015 Paris Agreement that agreed on measures to limit worldwide average temperatures rise to 1.5-2ºC by 2100. Developing countries like India and China are now the biggest producers of greenhouse gases.Actions that could help minimise the impact of climate change risk have been slow. Part of the reason is socio-cultural. Citizens in developing countries feel they were not responsible for the problem, the impact may be felt at some point in the future, so why worry? There is a prevalent view that weather extremes have always been with us, people are used to coping with them, and have carried on with their lives. Some feel human ingenuity will prevail, and there will be a technological solution.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-climax/">Climate Climax</a>, Editorial<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/from-a-fossil-past-to-an-electric-future/">From a fossil past to an electric future</a>, Om Astha Rai<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171132/636933739c7e80680e03df9cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="327" height="327">Leaders of developing and least developed countries that suffer the worst consequences of <a style="background-color: #ffffff; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/melting-mountains-shake,3073">global warming</a> argue that their priority is economic development, and they can invest in clean energy later when they can afford it.The net global C02 emission pathways in the IPCC Special Report requires the curve to come sharply down after 2020 and reach zero emission by 2040 or 2050 (see graph). How will this happen? To answer this, we have to first ask how we got here in the first place.Climate change is a consequence of the global economic order of the past two centuries that was powered by burning fossil fuels. It has brought benefits, but also given the world inequality, dependence, degradation of nature, and nationalistic populism. In the US that is a partisan divide between climate change believers and deniers. Liberal democracy is faltering in Europe.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/electri-city-cars/">Electri-City Cars</a>, Sikuma Rai<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-cost-of-light/">The cost of light</a>, Om Astha Rai<a style="outline: 0px;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/climate-for-change/the-great-himalayan-thaw/">The great Himalayan thaw</a>, Ajaya DixitIn the past six decades, many developing countries including Nepal sought foreign aid to lift living standards, but the strategy did not bring about structural changes that would have helped ensure social welfare and environmental protection. The economic model was western-inspired wasteful consumerism. In Nepal, this saw social and political movements, and country suffered three border blockades, a decade-long war, five constitutions, a palace massacre, and the replacement of a monarchy with a federalised republican order. Nepal’s current socio-politics shows signs of regression, while the economy is built on ecologically-destructive extractive practices.Most solutions are externally imposed, and have only worked when co-produced with communities. Past investments have been piecemeal and have not yielded the desired systemic impact. Similar inertia prevails in almost all countries: the status quo is too comfortable, and the ruling classes benefit from business as usual. Added to that is the populism of deniers.Given the prevailing dogma in both the rich and poor countries, it is unlikely that <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/half-full/A-carbon-neutral-Nepal-is-possible-clean-Nepal,1064">carbon</a> curve will become less steep as hoped for in the IPCC Report. Nepal’s Prime Minister K P Oli, while launching the fist electric buses in Kathmandu last week, announced a National Action Plan for Electric Mobility under which <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/20-electric-by-2020/">20% of public transport will be battery operated by 2020</a>.This proposition, theoretically, can offset some emission and fuel cost, but without clear thought-through investment strategy,<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=18118#.W9vjX9UzbIU"> petroleum import</a> will not fall. Since 2000, import of petroleum products has increased by more than three times.  Weaning the economy towards renewables needs statesmanship and vision – both of which our rulers lack.Imported electric vehicles will not build backward linkages in the economy, and the trade deficit will continue to grow. Without a fundamental reorientation of its economy towards a more self-reliant clean energy supply, and a stronger commitment to protecting ecosystems, Nepal will not meet decarbonisation targets.Globally, bringing carbon emissions to zero in the next 30 years will need incentives on investments globally and within individual countries which promote social equity, protect nature, improve governance and prioritise a low carbon lifestyle.Ajaya Dixit is Executive Director of Kathmandu based ISET-Nepal. His monthly column Climate for Change in Nepali Times deals with the impact of global warming in Nepal.

Decarbonise now

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="700" frameborder="0"> </iframe></div>

Nepal Election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;