<figure><img width="1400" height="933" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171132/636933619c7e80680e03df95jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption></figure>Next week as Nepalis celebrate Tihar, the festival of lights, few will remember that it will mark the second anniversary of the end of paralysing power cuts.Sometimes lasting up to 18 hours a day, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/how-they-kept-nepal-in-the-dark-ages/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">load-shedding</a> increased the people’s hardship and crippled the economy. The man credited for ending power cuts, <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/interview/interview-with-Kulman-Ghising,3409" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kulman Ghising</a> of the Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) said this week: “Light up your houses this Tihar, there is enough electricity.”The NEA estimates that demand next week will peak at 1,270 MW, but Ghising says there is enough supply from domestic generation and <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/nepal-india-thermal-power,3570" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Indian imports</a> to meet it. Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-climax/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate climax</a>, Editorial <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/from-a-fossil-past-to-an-electric-future/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">From a fossil past to an electric future</a>, Om Astha Rai <img width="327" height="327" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171132/636933649c7e80680e03df96jpeg.jpg" alt="">The reason for Ghising’s confidence is that 30MW has been added this year, his efforts to manage supply and cut leakage have increased capacity, and the Kulekhani reservoir is full. Even all this would not have ensured enough power – the real reason there will not be a dark Tihar is because of electricity imports from India.This year, Nepal’s electricity demand reached 1,281MW, but domestic generation never exceeded 525MW. The shortfall was made up by importing up to 505MW of electricity from coal-fired thermal plants in Bihar. Even with that, industries and some districts still suffered power cuts. The end to <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/corruption-in-electricity-industry-of-Nepal,3408" target="_blank" rel="noopener">load-shedding</a> has come at great environmental and economic cost. The average per capita carbon footprint of Nepalis is still low, but it has doubled because of fossil energy bought from India. The electricity import bill this year added Rs20 billion to the Rs150 billion Nepal was already spending to buy petroleum products from India.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/decarbonise-now/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Decarbonise now</a>, Ajaya Dixit<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/electri-city-cars/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Electri-City Cars</a>, Sikuma RaiThe government defends the power import, arguing that it is only a stop-gap measure and transmission lines built to import electricity from India can later be used to export Nepal’s surplus power to the Indian market.Former Minister of Water Resources Dipak Gyawali says that is not likely to happen because Nepal’s electricity demand is growing 100MW per year, and there is a lot of suppressed demand that not even big projects like Tama Kosi (440MW) can cover.Instead of building cross-border transmission lines, Gyawali urges the NEA to focus on connecting small hydro projects to the national grid to meet future domestic growth in consumption for cooking and transportation.Sadly, even while importing electricity generated from dirty coal from India, NEA cannot buy clean hydropower from private plants like the 6MW Khani Khola because they do not have transmission lines connecting them to the grid.Says one hydropower investor: “This is the irony of it all: we want to sell our electricity to NEA, but it is buying power from India.”

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The cost of light

<figure><img width="1400" height="1190" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171132/6369335b9c7e80680e03df92jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Catroon: DIWAKAR CHETTRI</figcaption></figure>Forget the horror movies, no more science fiction, stop watching post-apocalyptic Hollywood. We have the real thing coming to a planet near you.If things were not scary enough, the latest report from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released in Incheon earlier this month paints a terrifying picture of a dying Earth.This year saw record heat waves and droughts across Europe, Australia, Japan and the United States. Every new hurricane and typhoon breaks world records for wind speed. The hottest years since records started being kept were in the last 10 years, but 2018 was just a trailer of what is to come.If the current pace of warming continues, millions will start dying in heat waves across northern India and sub-Saharan Africa by the middle of the century. Droughts, flash floods and storms will be even more intense and frequent, there will be water shortages leading to starvation and famine. Coral reefs will all die, affecting fish populations. Sea level rise will submerge coastal cities, a fourth of Bangladesh’s land area will go underwater, the Maldives will disappear. Nepal’s mountains and glaciers will lose much of their permanent ice.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-cost-of-light/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The cost of light</a>, Om Astha Rai <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=15778&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Electri-city Cars</a>, Sikuma Rai <img width="327" height="327" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171132/6369335e9c7e80680e03df93jpeg.jpg" alt="">And that is probably the best-case scenario if warming cannot be capped at 1.5o by 2040. In reality, it will probably exceed 2o. By the end of the century, we are looking at average global temperatures at 4o warmer – this means we should replace the term climate change with ‘climate collapse’.Many of us who have been writing about the climate for the past decades have been called ‘alarmists’ or ‘fear mongers’, but this time it is the scientists who are panicking. The reason is that at a time when action on emission reduction is urgent, populist climate deniers are being elected in democracies across the world. It is getting so scary, citizens and politicians are burying their heads in the sand.These alarming changes have happened with just an average 1o warming since the industrial age. The IPCC report makes clear that in the next decades, whether the warming is 1.5o or 2o will make a world of a difference – 1.5o means heat waves will be less severe meaning millions will not die, the polar ice caps will not melt as fast, fewer plants and animals will become extinct, sea level will not rise by as much, fewer coral reefs will bleach. However, the report warns that governments only have 12 more years to implement measures so that global warming will be less than 1.5o.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=15756&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">From a fossil past to an electric future</a>, Om Astha Rai<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=15845&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Decarbonise now</a>, Ajay DixitNow that we know how bad things are, what are we going to do about it in Nepal? For years we have argued that since we did not create the problem, and what we do is not going to save the planet, we should just try to adapt. But, as a new report State of Climate Action in Nepal shows, Nepal also needs to take mitigation action – not so much to slow global warming, but to save the country’s economy from collapse.Despite international treaties Nepal has signed, and successive governments paying lip service to a renewable economy, the country’s fossil energy imports are soaring, including through electricity imports from thermal plants in India. Solar and biogas programs have languished, and there has been nearly no tangible progress on electric public transport.‘Nepal’s move towards a sustainably renewable future is sluggish, and indeed often regressively heading towards more fossil fuel addiction,’ the report concludes.The most glaring lapse is in sustainable harnessing of Nepal’s hydropower. Chronic governance failure and sheer stupidity of our rulers have resulted in Nepal now importing half its electricity from Indian coal-fired plants, doubling our carbon footprint. New hydropower plants are expected to add 2,000MW in the next two years, but these will barely meet suppressed demands and since they are all run-of-river schemes, the winter power shortage will continue.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/climate-for-change/the-great-himalayan-thaw/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The great Himalayan Thaw</a>, Ajay Dixit<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/interview/interview-with-david-molden-icimod,3074" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepalis paying price for climate change</a>The number of vehicles is nearing 3 million, with public transport vehicles making up less than 3% of the total, and the number of electric vehicles is negligible. There is weak political will to promote more efficient and reliable public transport because of the lobbying power of bus syndicates. Although taxes for electric vehicles have been slashed (see page 8-9), there is no sign of a proactive strategy to wean transportation from fossil fuels.All this is impacting public health due to a proliferation of two-wheelers and lack of emission controls. The poor condition of roads and highways has decreased the efficiency of vehicular transport, but has increased pollution levels.Much more worrying is that Nepal’s annual spending on petroleum products has <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/from-a-fossil-past-to-an-electric-future/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">more than doubled in the last two years</a>, increasing our trade imbalance with India. Flawed energy policy is not just ruining the environment and bankrupting the country, it is also increasing Nepal’s political vulnerability to the outside world.Read also: <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/reservoirs-of-suspicion/hydropower-geopolitics%20,3991" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reservoirs of suspicion</a>, Om Astha Rai<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/Comment/storing-water-reservoir-Nepal,1042" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Storing water</a>, Bishal Thapa <h2> 10 years ago this week</h2> In the #423 issue of Nepali Times  of 31 October-6 November 2008, the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=15330#.W9vq2dUzbIU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Editorial</a> dealt with the elected Maoist government getting back to business after the holidays on the mattter of integration of thier milita with the national Army. Excerpt: 'Government formation, the prime minister's foreign trips, then there was Dasain-Tihar. Finally, there are no more excuses for the government to start governing. But there is one more potential distraction: army integration. The January deadline for UNMIN's mandate is beginning to focus everyone's minds on dismantling cantonments and containers. Those bankrolling the UN are not in the mood for another extension.Given the extreme posturing and grandstanding by doctrinaire Maoists led by Defence Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa and the centre-right supporters of status quoists in the Nepal Army, integration won't be easy. Thapa's rash public pronouncements, and the kangresis whipping up a storm over rumours they heard that Nanda Kishore Pun was being proposed as army chief has needlessly polarised the debate.'  <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/423" data-elementor-open-lightbox=""> <img width="640" height="1014" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171132/6369335e9c7e80680e03df94jpeg.jpg" alt=""></a>

Climate Climax

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171132/636933719c7e80680e03df9bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="650" height="581"/>The conclusion of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/on-thin-ice-in-the-khumbu/">Global Warming</a> of 1.5ºC could not have been more blunt: human-induced global warming poses an existential threat to the planet. And to Nepal.To avert this, the report has called for pathways that look unachievable. The US government has already indicated it will withdraw from the 2015 Paris Agreement that agreed on measures to limit worldwide average temperatures rise to 1.5-2ºC by 2100. Developing countries like India and China are now the biggest producers of greenhouse gases.Actions that could help minimise the impact of climate change risk have been slow. Part of the reason is socio-cultural. Citizens in developing countries feel they were not responsible for the problem, the impact may be felt at some point in the future, so why worry? There is a prevalent view that weather extremes have always been with us, people are used to coping with them, and have carried on with their lives. Some feel human ingenuity will prevail, and there will be a technological solution.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-climax/">Climate Climax</a>, Editorial<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/from-a-fossil-past-to-an-electric-future/">From a fossil past to an electric future</a>, Om Astha Rai<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171132/636933739c7e80680e03df9cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="327" height="327">Leaders of developing and least developed countries that suffer the worst consequences of <a style="background-color: #ffffff; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/melting-mountains-shake,3073">global warming</a> argue that their priority is economic development, and they can invest in clean energy later when they can afford it.The net global C02 emission pathways in the IPCC Special Report requires the curve to come sharply down after 2020 and reach zero emission by 2040 or 2050 (see graph). How will this happen? To answer this, we have to first ask how we got here in the first place.Climate change is a consequence of the global economic order of the past two centuries that was powered by burning fossil fuels. It has brought benefits, but also given the world inequality, dependence, degradation of nature, and nationalistic populism. In the US that is a partisan divide between climate change believers and deniers. Liberal democracy is faltering in Europe.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/electri-city-cars/">Electri-City Cars</a>, Sikuma Rai<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-cost-of-light/">The cost of light</a>, Om Astha Rai<a style="outline: 0px;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/climate-for-change/the-great-himalayan-thaw/">The great Himalayan thaw</a>, Ajaya DixitIn the past six decades, many developing countries including Nepal sought foreign aid to lift living standards, but the strategy did not bring about structural changes that would have helped ensure social welfare and environmental protection. The economic model was western-inspired wasteful consumerism. In Nepal, this saw social and political movements, and country suffered three border blockades, a decade-long war, five constitutions, a palace massacre, and the replacement of a monarchy with a federalised republican order. Nepal’s current socio-politics shows signs of regression, while the economy is built on ecologically-destructive extractive practices.Most solutions are externally imposed, and have only worked when co-produced with communities. Past investments have been piecemeal and have not yielded the desired systemic impact. Similar inertia prevails in almost all countries: the status quo is too comfortable, and the ruling classes benefit from business as usual. Added to that is the populism of deniers.Given the prevailing dogma in both the rich and poor countries, it is unlikely that <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/half-full/A-carbon-neutral-Nepal-is-possible-clean-Nepal,1064">carbon</a> curve will become less steep as hoped for in the IPCC Report. Nepal’s Prime Minister K P Oli, while launching the fist electric buses in Kathmandu last week, announced a National Action Plan for Electric Mobility under which <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/20-electric-by-2020/">20% of public transport will be battery operated by 2020</a>.This proposition, theoretically, can offset some emission and fuel cost, but without clear thought-through investment strategy,<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=18118#.W9vjX9UzbIU"> petroleum import</a> will not fall. Since 2000, import of petroleum products has increased by more than three times.  Weaning the economy towards renewables needs statesmanship and vision – both of which our rulers lack.Imported electric vehicles will not build backward linkages in the economy, and the trade deficit will continue to grow. Without a fundamental reorientation of its economy towards a more self-reliant clean energy supply, and a stronger commitment to protecting ecosystems, Nepal will not meet decarbonisation targets.Globally, bringing carbon emissions to zero in the next 30 years will need incentives on investments globally and within individual countries which promote social equity, protect nature, improve governance and prioritise a low carbon lifestyle.Ajaya Dixit is Executive Director of Kathmandu based ISET-Nepal. His monthly column Climate for Change in Nepali Times deals with the impact of global warming in Nepal.

Decarbonise now

<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/waiting-for-bipin-joshi" target="_blank">Nepali student Bipin Joshi</a>, who was taken captive by Hamas on 7 October 2023, was not on the list of those freed following the end of the bombardment and fighting in Gaza.&nbsp; On Monday morning, the Israeli military notified Bipin's family and Nepal’s ambassador to Israel Dhan Prasad Pandit, that there is no evidence of him still being alive. However, Nepal's Foreign Ministry is yet to be notified by Israel's government of Bipin's status. The news came three days after a US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hamas came into effect, and hostage and prisoner exchanges by the two sides started Monday morning.&nbsp; Almost 2,000 Palestinians held in Israeli prisions are expected to be released by Israel in exchange for the hostages during the next phase of the peace deal between the two parties, and the bodies of deceased hostages remaining in Gaza are also expected to be returned.&nbsp; Bipin Joshi was among a group of Nepalis who had arrived in Israel in 2023 just weeks before 7 October 2023 as part of a ‘learn and earn’ program to work and earn in kibbutz farms there.&nbsp; Along with other students Joshi had been working on a farm in Kibbutz Alumim in southern Israel near Gaza. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/war-in-israel-earthquake-and-grief-in-nepal">Ten Nepali students were killed </a>while taking cover in shelters near their farms in two separate attacks by Hamas fighters.&nbsp; Joshi’s colleagues, fellow Nepalis who survived the attack, recall gunmen lobbing two grenades into the bunker that they had taken cover in. Bipin hurled one of the grenades out, they say, but the other one exploded, killing and injuring Nepalis inside. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Shortly after, Bipin was captured by Hamas along with a Thai national and led away into Gaza. CCTV footage showed Bipin alive and at a hospital in Gaza on the day of the attack itself after he was taken hostage.&nbsp; Thirty-one Thai citizens, who like Nepalis worked in farms in Israel, were taken hostage during the Hamas attack, the highest number of foreign captives in October 2023.&nbsp; <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/deft-diplomacy-freed-thai-hostages">Deft Thai diplomatic engagement</a> with officials from Iran, Egypt, and Qatar brought about the release of 23 of its nationals in 2023. Five more Thai nationals were released earlier this year.&nbsp; In August, Joshi’s family visited Israel at the invitation of the government and urged the international community to push for his return. Bipin’s mother Padma and sister Pushpa have been at the United Nations to lobby for his release.&nbsp; His family last week also released a video clip of Bipin briefly speaking on camera, reportedly obtained by Israel and said to be filmed in November 2023, around a month after he was taken captive. Joshi looks healthy in that video.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251013091028_d551c7f88204c52217152fb5db655bb5a5f8bf2cff1e6a055326ebf64453ff9f.png" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20251013091028_d551c7f88204c52217152fb5db655bb5a5f8bf2cff1e6a055326ebf64453ff9f" data-rendition-name="original" width="2848" height="1528" loading="lazy" alt="Bipin Joshi NT"> </figure>  More than 67,000 Palestinians have been killed during the last two years of the genocide in Gaza. About 1,200 people were killed during the Hamas attack on 7 October 2023, while more than 251, including Bipin Joshi, were taken as captives.&nbsp; This is the third ceasefire implemented in Gaza since 7 October 2023 after previous ones in November 2023 and January 2025. This 20-point deal facilitated by intermediaries US, Qatar, Turkey, and Egypt included terms for Hamas to give up its arms, and for a devastated Gaza to be governed by a Palestinian body of independent technocrats, while Israeli troops will withdraw in stages from Gaza.&nbsp; Hamas has agreed to relinquish control of Gaza, but has rejected the demand for disarmament, saying the group will demobilise but is prepared to resume fighting if Israel breaches the ceasefire.&nbsp; Following the ceasefire, Palestinians in Gaza have begun long journeys back to homes reduced to rubble by Israel’s two-year assault on the strip. The flow of humanitarian aid in the city has also increased following the peace deal.&nbsp; Israel's closure of humanitarian corridors in the past months had blocked the entry of food and medicine into Gaza, causing widespread famine. The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) has said that the restriction of aid into the beseiged city has left as many as <a href="https://www.unrwa.org/newsroom/news-releases/gaza-unrwa%E2%80%99s-lancet-study-reveals-alarming-surge-child-malnutrition">54,600 children acutely malnourished</a>.&nbsp; Meanwhile, US president Donald Trump landed in Israel on Monday as hostages were being released, and world leaders are expected to head to Egypt for an international summit to discuss the next steps in Gaza, Israel, and West Asia.&nbsp;

Nepali hostage in Gaza not alive: Israel

Already trying to balance youth demands with legal provisions in the Constitution, Prime Minister Sushila Karki’s interim government faced yet another challenge over Dasain: a receding monsoon dumped unseasonal rain unleashing floods and landslides that killed at least 60, mostly in eastern Nepal.&nbsp; The government was rated positively for its early warning and the ‘visibility’ of its disaster response, with many comparing it to the inaction of the NC-UML coalition during last year’s floods.&nbsp; Government agencies and police proactively closed off hazardous sections of highways as Kathmandu was marooned from the rest of the country in the peak holiday season. Stranded passengers were taken care of, with police, army and local governments in Ilam coordinating rescue and relief efforts. Many of the problems were structural and inherited from decades of neglect and corruption in highway contracts. Shoddy bridges and encroachment of settlements along river banks have increased risk from more frequent extreme weather caused by climate breakdown. With Dasain over Tihar around the corner and the worst of the disaster behind, the Karki administration is trying to balance the separate demands of GenZ movers and shakers who installed her in office with constitutional provisions. It has not helped that the badly-mauled political parties are spoiling for a fight, and the three top leaders show little signs of stepping down. “Nepal’s movement did not happen in a democratic vacuum, so this government walks a very fine line in political legitimacy," says Bidushi Dhungel of the National Democratic Institute in Nepal. "In this fragile space, whatever the work done — or not done— by the interim government within its limited mandate, it may open up avenues for further dissent from old and new actors. They are &nbsp;caught between a rock and a hard place.” Civil society activists issued a statement on Wednesday calling on the main political parties to heed the writing on the wall and reform themselves. Signed by professor Krishna Khanal and former ambassador Keshab Mathema, the statement said: 'The main leaders of the main parties should say sorry, and voluntarily resign ... they must respect public sentiments and work to reform and transform their parties to be more accountable to the public, or risk being irrelevant.'&nbsp; Complicating matters further are the sometimes contradictory demands of various GenZ factions on punishing those responsible for the carnage and rampage of 8-9 September, Constitution and elections. Karki faces calls to immediately detain former PM KP Oli and Home Minister Ramesh Lekhak for their involvement in the massacre outside Parliament. Under pressure from GenZ delegates, Home Minister Om Aryal fired off a letter to the police to arrest Oli and Lekhak. But later at a confrontational midnight meeting at the prime minister’s residence in Baluwatar, all four security chiefs advised Karki that arresting the UML and NC ex-ministers could unleash violent confrontation on the streets. The interim government is in a bind. It has formed a committee headed by Gauri Bahadur Karki to investigate the killings last month as well as the arson and vandalism that followed. The question is: should it wait for the committee to submit its report before punishing perpetrators, or let police arrest those who can easily be identified in social media posts setting fire to Singha Darbar, the Supreme Court and other sites.&nbsp; GenZ’s Sudan Gurung faction has gone beyond its original demand to submit an 8-point ultimatum that includes the sacking of the Chief Justice and officials of the anti-corruption bureau.&nbsp; The Prime Minister is caught in the crossfire between managing the expectations of a movement that appointed her, and working within the framework of her interim government’s mandate and Constitution. But it is not just the government that faces challenges. The lack of clear consensus among youth factions and their outspoken collectives is surfacing.&nbsp; &nbsp;“This has been a leaderless and decentralised movement, and the traditional variables typically seen in a political revolt seem missing here," notes political scientist Sucheta Pyakuryal. “There is no organised structure, nor any ideological pull factor, therefore a big question is how much bargaining power does a movement like this have, and how sustainable will it be.” GenZ leaders seem to be in two main camps. Demands like the one for a directly elected prime minister, and the constitutional processes that can make for such an outcome, have emerged as a major point dividing the movement.&nbsp; Nepalis both within and outside the youth movement are watching Hami Nepal’s Sudan Gurung closely — especially after his recent interview with Al-Jazeera during which he expressed his interest to run for Prime Minister and seemed to not accept a win by political parties in the March elections.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251009201044_fcba7e92bb9a8812fd0ad4e9770d6f4d4189972de5229f91e9a832a26e388901.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20251009201044_fcba7e92bb9a8812fd0ad4e9770d6f4d4189972de5229f91e9a832a26e388901" data-rendition-name="original" width="2916" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="One month on NT"> <figcaption>GROUND ZERO: The destroyed centre of Nepal's government with Singha Darbar (in green scaffolding), the Attorney General's Office, Supreme Court, and in the distance, Parliament building. Also seen are the nearly finished new Parliament Complex and the new Supreme Court buildings. Drone shot taken on Thursday morning. Photo: SUMAN NEPALI</figcaption> </figure>  Gurung’s participation in the NDRRMA’s disaster management meeting and manner of his interaction with officials at the event was met with both bouquets and brickbats. Interestingly, some of the criticism was youth activists themselves. &nbsp;“There's a lot of self-involvement and self-importance that seems to be guiding a fragmented young leadership, as opposed to constructively engaging in how to concretise reforms,” says Dhungel. “There seems to be very little stocktaking of what's happened in the past, and what's happened in other countries to try identify where lapses could be before they occur."&nbsp; In the absence of unified positions and level-headed leadership, the youth who spearheaded post-protest negotiations, as well as the GenZ movement in general, risk losing public goodwill already dented by the destruction of state property on 9 September. This also leaves an opening for political parties which are on the defensive and licking their wounds to capitalise on youth discord.&nbsp; Says Pyakuryal: “Post revolution, the political landscape becomes extremely unpredictable and therefore there is a risk of co-optation from several Machiavellian political actors including political parties, monarchists, as well as other forces, and that is concerning.” The immediate and visible transformation that Nepal’s youth expect will not manifest right away, and while there is a need for long-term political planning, the caretaker government must also undertake measures that have a palpable impact on the daily life of citizens. &nbsp;&nbsp; “While youth frustrations must be addressed urgently, statecraft isn’t just about fulfilling short-term goals,”says Pyakuryal. &nbsp; Many, including the youth themselves, now see the need for GenZ to have a more united stance and to move beyond making demands that the interim government cannot fulfil and start mobilising for elections — even by forming its own party.&nbsp; A strong showing in elections can enable them to enact the changes they want to strengthen Nepal’s democracy, and make future governments more accountable.&nbsp; This week, the Election Commission announced 16 November as the deadline to register new parties for the 5 March polls.&nbsp; Youth representatives have said that they want to be active participants in the political process, particularly in national-level politics. The Constitution defines ‘youth’ as being between the ages of 16-40. In the 2022 elections, the Election Commission stated that over 41% of locally-elected representatives were from ages 21-40 years.&nbsp; If young Nepalis are to contest the election outside the banner of mainstream parties, this leaves electoral aspirants little more than a month to decide whether to form a loose coalition with existing parties, a separate political party, or to contest elections independently. “This is first of a kind movement, where political language is digital, not ideological, where organising is done through online platforms and where there is no one leader spearheading the movement,”says Pyakuryal. “I don’t know if ‘anti-corruption’ or ‘political reform’ have a strong enough ideological pull to band people together in the long run.” Indeed, the RSP was formed only four months before the 2022 elections and cashed in on anti-incumbent and anti-corruption sentiments of voters — mainly driven by social media. But controversy and strife within their party means it has largely lost its public trust.&nbsp; Nepal’s September Uprising and its aftermath have shown that a majority of young people are entirely disillusioned with establishment parties and politicians, even using ‘ex-political parties’ as a phrase of reference. Any new young political figures that emerge from this movement and this election will have to work with mainstream parties in a multiparty democracy.&nbsp; &nbsp;“The reality of politics is that change is not possible without engaging with existing political institutions and actors,” says Dhungel. “To say that they do not want to engage, negotiate, or identify allies or proactively seek out input from at least the reform-minded individuals within each of those outfits is political naivety, and may lead to a lack of institutionalised reform.” However, Dhungel notes that the youth leadership would have more agency if they are clear not just on what they want to change, but about whether they are interested in active politics or civic engagement. “The window of opportunity that is fast closing is to really negotiate hard and push for internal reforms within political parties and across the electoral system,” she adds. Pyakurel also adds: “GenZ are smart and politically mature, I hope they see these loopholes. I am optimistic about the direction they take.”

One month on

The meeting called by Prime Minister Sushila Karki at Baluwatar on 4 October was supposed to be about completing the interim cabinet with GenZ representatives. But it ended with factions putting up rival demands.
It is ironic that a movement that voted for Karki on Discord is itself marred by discord.
But such jostling was to be expected. This was an amorphous and leaderless group of young Nepalis that was suddenly elevated to fill a national power vacuum, and is now expected to redesign the country from scratch. &nbsp;
At least two camps have emerged within the youth groups. One is led by Sudan Gurung of Hami Nepal with Barsa Raut, Anil Baniya, Purshotam Yadav and Ojaswi Raj Thapa, while the second under Rakshya Bam has Pradeep Gyawali, Aditya Karn, Yujan Rajbhandari and Dheeraj Joshi.
Just like it was at Nepal Army Headquarters on 10 September, there is distrust and dissent within these disparate group. For the sake of stability, and in memory of the 72 who lost their lives last month, Nepalis want these groups to be more united in their stances. &nbsp;
Prime Minister Karki did not attend the Baluwatar meeting last week, wanting the GenZs to first work out their differences. Home Minister Om Prakash Aryal and Finance Minister Rameshore Khanal were present, and entreated the young delegates to cooperate.
Sudan Gurung has demanded the resignation of the Chief Justice and the head of the anti-graft body, the CIAA. However, some even within Gurung’s camp are said to want constitutional provisions to be respected, and do not agree with some of his eight demands.
Rakshya Bam accuses Gurung of trying to do away with the Constitution and issuing arbitrary statements on governance. Her group also issued a statement warning against any attempt to deviate from the values of democratic change.
The conflict between various GenZ groups has exposed the nature and limitations of street revolt, proving that it is always easier to destroy than to rebuild. A revolution can bring rapid and transformative change, but then comes the task of agreeing on new structures and processes — while dealing with the ego and ambition of the protagonists.
TIGHT-ROPE WALK
One year after a similar student-led uprising, Bangladesh is struggling to stabilise the system and preparing for elections while dealing with extremism and geopolitical fallout. Sri Lanka held elections and brought in a new youthful leader, but it has not been smooth sailing.
Prime Minister Karki’s caretaker government is on a tight-rope walk. Moving too fast on arresting the previous prime minister and investigating others for corruption risks igniting renewed street violence, but delaying justice will anger the impatient youth, who want immediate results.&nbsp;
The longer the uncertainty and instability lasts, the more likely it will be for radical forces to take advantage of the fluidity. The communal clashes in Birganj and Janakpur over Dasain, inspired by what is happening across the border, should be a wakeup call. Hate speech and ethnic slurs on social media could be incendiary if left unregulated.
The Prime Minister has said her foremost priority is to ensure free, fair and inclusive elections on 5 March — mindful that various forces are out to sabotage it for their own interests.
Amending the Constitution to meet GenZ demands may have to wait for polls next year, and real change that improves lives, creates jobs and makes the bureaucracy cleaner and more efficient will take longer.
But till then, the interim administration could deliver tangible benefits to people with do-able improvements like speeding up the driving license process, removing middlemen from all levels of the bureaucracy, expeditiously completing highway repairs, controlling food prices.
The youth want immediate course correction, given how the old political parties, politicians and bureaucracy had plundered the state for years. But idealism alone cannot make a state machinery function. Every decision during this sensitive transition must be taken without undermining previous gains.
Factional friction within the GenZ will allow the old leaders in the old parties to regroup and plot revenge. Meanwhile, the three main parties, which fuelled the youth and class rage with their corruption and reckless disregard for the public good for the past three decades, do not seem to have learnt their lessons.&nbsp;
Despite being disgraced, K P Oli of UML, Sher Bahadur Deuba of the Nepali Congress and Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoist Centre, are still not willing to retire. The tragic loss of life and the mayhem that followed does not seem to have opened their eyes to the writing on the wall. They are intent on blaming everyone but themselves.
The Election Commission has already set a deadline for party registration by 16 November. Some in the GenZs want provisions to vote for a directly elected executive head of the country by even changing the Constitution.
There is a lot of confusion about what exactly the mandate of the interim government is, what it can and cannot do. With the dissolution of Parliament, the interim government cannot amend the Constitution, its only mandate is to conduct elections to form a new government that would then work on amendments.&nbsp;
At most, it can pass ordinances but only for the peace and good governance of the country or when there is an immediate need to enact a law.
To make things murkier, Sudan Gurung in a widely-shared interview on Al Jazeera said that he would run for prime minister, and that he would not accept the old parties and their leaders even if they win the elections unless they completely reform their political stance. He is also willing to work with pro-monarchists if they are for the betterment of the country.
Dharan Mayor Harka Sampang has already registered a new party called Shram Sanskriti Party while the likes of Kathmandu Mayor Balen Shah, Energy Minister Kulman Ghising and for RSP Sumana Shrestha are expected to follow another corporate backer for a new party.
All parties, including any new ones representing the youth, must learn from the failures of the newer alternatives such as Sajha, Bibeksheel and more recently RSP. Parties go nowhere without a clear ideology, organisation and a vision and pathway post-elections.
The interim government is made of most capable technocrats and a Prime Minister with zero tolerance for incompetence and who says she has no intention of continuing in the position a minute longer than necessary.&nbsp;
We now have to move beyond destruction to rebuilding, and not be distracted by discord.
Sonia Awale

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