There are many signs of Nepal’s democratic decay, but the one that has made the stench unbearable in recent weeks is the agreement between the three political alpha males to divide up the five-year term of prime minister between themselves.
That <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/new-chapter-in-nepal-political-saga/">backroom deal </a>was not what Nepalis voted for in 2022. Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoist Centre (MC) has so far led three coalitions in two months: one with the Nepali Congress (NC) to fight elections, another with the UML to be prime minister himself, and then breaking that off to go back to the NC for the president’s election on 9 March.
Such <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-race-for-shital-nibas/">do-or-die desperation to get an expedient candidate</a> for a ceremonial post has shown just how deep the rot is. This graft-ridden male gerontocracy will do anything to cling to power through the skin of its teeth, the country be damned.
The recklessness does not just undermine Nepal’s hard-won democracy, but also invites instability and a dangerous drift towards extremism. It ignores the fact that only 61% of eligible voters bothered to cast their ballots last year with the message of ‘none-of-the above’. And among those who voted, most young Nepalis went for the independents.
The alternative RSP and non-party mayors served as an effective safety valve to secure the democratic system, and protect &nbsp;traditional parties. It temporarily allayed the deep disillusionment of voters, providing some hope that change was possible. &nbsp;
Those hopes have now been dashed with <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/for-whom-the-bell-tolls/">the RSP showing itself to be like the rest</a>. Although this may give comfort to Nepal’s serial politicians, it also shortens society’s frustration fuse. Nepal’s overseas workers are already threatening to stop sending money home unless they are allowed to vote, and politicians behave themselves.
&nbsp;None of the main parties, civil society and activists have spoken up against <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/rsp-quits-nepal-coalition/">populist media-bashing by RSP leader Rabi Lamichhane</a>. The parties may be relieved that blaming the messenger deflected some of the public anger against them, and kleptocrats could be glad that the media that has exposed their wrongdoings is being targeted for a change.
&nbsp;The superstructure of the Nepali state was already wobbly because its executive, legislative and judicial pillars were weakened. The media's fourth pillar, which had been defending democracy by using its <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/press-for-people/">constitutional right for press freedom</a>, has also been enfeebled.
It is easy to blame <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/geopolitical-tectonics/">geopolitics</a>: New Delhi’s domineering role in determining the course of Nepali politics, or the reverberations in Kathmandu of global Sino-US rivalry. But instability and external interference is a chicken-or-egg: do foreign powers interfere in Nepal because the government is weak, or does foreign interference weaken the government?
This being Nepal, things could change after the presidential election on 9 March, and the NC once again ditches the MC to lead the government. We will not be surprised if that happens.
It is hard to say who won and who lost in this see-saw politics. It seemed like KPO had outsmarted SBD, but then PKD suddenly switched sides, and KPO wooed MKN with presidentship. The 7-party coalition has been replaced with an 8-party one. Winners may not stay winners for long.
&nbsp;But in the end, everyone lost. And by far the biggest loss is to Nepal’s democracy. &nbsp;

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Premiership in instalments

<figure><img width="2048" height="1366" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230228150240/63fe128b9c7e80680e0da52cjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Ram Chandra Poudel, the Nepali Congress nominee for president, files his candidacy alongside NC chair Sher Bahadur Deuba and Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal on Saturday. Photos: GOPEN RAI</figcaption></figure>Nepal’s third president is most likely going to be Ram Chandra Paudel of the Nepali Congress (NC), but this will unravel the current six-party ruling coalition.The back-stabbing, power-sharing promises and backroom deals in the run-up to elections on 9 March have also shown that Nepal’s politics is still an opaque gerontocratic patriarchy in which a handful of superannuated men shuffle the cards every now and then.On Saturday, the UML also put forward its own presidential candidate: former speaker Subhas Nembang. But given the arithmetic of the new political alignment, Paudel’s win appears assured.The long saga that led to Paudel’s candidacy was the result of a triangular fight between the NC, the UML and the Maoist parties which have ruled Nepal in unstable coalitions since the end of the insurgency in 2006. <figure><img width="2048" height="1366" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230228150240/63fe128f9c7e80680e0da52djpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Being the largest party in Parliament, the NC had been outwitted by the UML (the second largest party) which broke an electoral partnership with the Maoists (the third largest in the House). The fact that the post of a ceremonial president was deemed so politically critical for all three parties shows just how cynical Nepali politics has become — all three need a pliant president in order to use the constitutional powers of the office for their own ends.All the main leaders in the fray: Ram Chandra Paudel and Sher Bahadur Deuba, K P Oli of the UML, Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoists, the CPN (Unified Socialist) Madhav Kumar Nepal, Upendra Yadav of the JSP and Mahanta Thakur of the LSP have all been in an out of government for the past 17 years.Paudel, Deuba, Nepal, Oli and Thakur are all above 70 and have been in active politics in Nepal for even longer. One could say that Nepal is in the state it is in because of these senior politicians, yet they refuse to let go.This is in direct contravention of the strongest message of elections in 2022 in which Nepali voters made their preference for a generational change in leadership and a departure from traditional politics felt. Although the new independent RSP has 19 seats in Parliament, the power play at the top is following the old way of doing things.  <img width="2048" height="1366" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230228150240/63fe12939c7e80680e0da52ejpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="2048" height="1366" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230228150240/63fe12979c7e80680e0da52fjpeg.jpg" alt="">The story so far goes like this:2020: The Nepal Communist Party (formed with the unity of the Maoist Centre and UML after the 2017 elections) starts falling apart due to a power struggle between Pushpa Kamal Dahal and K P Oli2021: Oli tries to dissolve Parliament but the Supreme Court blocks his move, and the NCP is bifurcated again into its constituent parties. Soon after, the UML also split.2022: The Maoists and NC form an electoral alliance for local, provincial and federal elections. The NC comes out as the first party, the UML second and the Maoists third. The fourth place is taken by the RSP which was formed only 5 months before editions. December 2022: The UML’s Oli pulls a fast one by proposing Dahal as prime minister in a 7-party coalition that includes the RSP and the royal-right RPP. In return, Oli secures an agreement from Dahal to reserve the presidency for the UML, and for Oli to take over as PM after 2.5 years. The NC is left out in the cold.January 2023: The NC and the Maoists realise that the UML will have the presidency, prime ministership, house speaker and other posts by 2025. The NC, therefore, gives a vote of confidence to Dahal in Parliament, meaning there is no opposition. The NC proposes that Dahal can remain prime minister for five years in return for its candidate to be president.February 2023: Dahal changes his tune and starts stressing that the president should be a “consensus candidate” even as there is a slew of high-level visits by Indian and American officials.18 February: Oli makes a last-ditch attempt to outwit Dahal by proposing Madhav Kumar Nepal as president so the 7-party coalition remains intact, and the NC continues to be sidelined.  24 February: Oli’s ploy does not work as Dahal is convinced by Deuba and NC to allow him to be prime minister for most of his tenure in return for NC’s candidate to be president and the JSP to have the vice-presidency.This being Nepal, anything can still happen till the 9 March election for president, and Oli could still pull a habit out of the hat. But it looks like a foregone conclusion that Ram Chandra Paudel will be the third president of Nepal. <img width="2048" height="1366" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230228150240/63fe129b9c7e80680e0da530jpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="2048" height="1366" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230228150240/63fe129f9c7e80680e0da531jpeg.jpg" alt="">The eight parties including the NC and Maoists that backed the deal are now on track to replace the 7-party coalition in the government. Some of the parties in the new lineup are already in the current coalition, although the UML, RSP and RPP are likely to stay in the opposition. The UML Central Committee Secretariat meeting on Saturday decided not to leave the 7-party coalition just yet, saying that it was just proposing Nembang as its candidate as power the earlier agreement with the Maoists. "The ruling coalition still exists. The 8-party alliance has not been formed, there is nothing in writing yet. Anything can happen between now and 9 March," says UML spokesperson Prithvi Subba Gurung. The elephants in the room are Nepal’s two big neighbours and the United States. The Chinese have made no secret that they would like the UML and Maoists to stay united, and in fact, its ambassador in Kathmandu lobbied to prevent the NCP from splitting in 2021.  Intensifying Sino-American rivalry means Washington would like to counter that by keeping the NC and the Maoists together - however different the ideologies of the left and right-wing parties may be. Strategically, New Delhi would go along with the American strategy. If no candidate gets a majority in the 9 March voting, a re-election will be held on 10 March. The vice presidential election will be held on 17 March. The Election Commission is readying for the election in the Parliament premises in New Baneswor.  Of 884 voters in the electoral college who will cast their ballots for the president and vice-president, 334 are from the federal House of Representatives and 550 from provincial assemblies. The votes are weighted with members of the federal parliament having 79 points for a total of 26,400, while provincial assemblies get 48 points each for 26,386 votes.  "It is good that a former prime minister is not a candidate, and also the NC and UML have put forward respectable candidates," says former Nepali ambassador to India Nilamber Acharya. "However, the way this process has been conducted it portends more instability because of the bad blood, suspicion, and distrust."

New chapter in Nepal political saga

<figure><img width="1235" height="585" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230228150240/63fe125a9c7e80680e0da51ajpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption></figcaption></figure>So fierce is the competition between Nepal’s three major parties to have a say in who the next ceremonial president is that it is threatening to break the governing coalition.
Which is puzzling, why are they concerned about a post that is largely symbolic and with residual constitutional powers? Because all the three parties have since 2017 misused (or been the victims of) the misuse of presidential powers. 
On Saturday, 25 February political parties will officially register their candidates for the presidential election set to take place on 9 March. There are many trial balloons being floated with names of potential candidates which include former prime ministers, ministers, top party leadership, as well as non-partisan figures.
From the Nepali Congress (NC) the names floating around include Ram Chandra Paudel, Krishna Prasad Sitaula, and even former Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba himself. Possible candidates from the UML include Ishwar Pokharel, Subhas Chandra Nembang, Bishnu Rimal, and Asta Laxmi Shakya.
CPN-Unified Socialist Chair Madhav Kumar Nepal as well as Nepal Socialist Party leader Baburam Bhattarai’s names have also come up in connection with the presidency. Mahanta Thakur of the Loktantrik Samajwadi Party has also been proposed as a candidate.
Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal is in the horns of a dilemma because he has promised the presidency to the NC, UML as well as his own party’s leaders. This means he is bound to disappoint and make enemies of everyone who does not make it to Shital Nibas on 9 March. 
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/constitutional-president/">Constitutional President</a>, Editorial
The decision should have been simple. On 25 December, Dahal broke his party’s alliance with the NC and erstwhile Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba to form a coalition with the UML and five other parties, in return for the UML getting the presidency. 
But Sher Bahadur Deuba threw a spanner in the works when he gave his party’s vote of confidence to Dahal on 10 January, keeping the door open for future political collaboration between the NC and Dahal’s Maoist Centre (MC).
And while the prime minister has maintained that his coalition will remain intact beyond 9 March, he has refused to guarantee a UML candidate for head of state.
“The ground reality has shifted between then and now,” spokesperson Krishna Bahadur Mahara said following the MC’s meeting to discuss the presidential election on Monday. 
The NC’s Deuba, Paudel, Sitaula, Gagan Thapa, and Bimalendra Nidhi have visited Dahal many times, apparently to assure him that he will get to be prime minister for five years if the NC gets the presidency.
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/geopolitical-tectonics/">Geopolitical tectonics</a>, Editorial
This a lollipop for Dahal, who would otherwise have to rotate prime ministership with Oli. And the UML would get to be all-powerful if it also gets to have a president as well as speaker, prime minister, and other heads of constitutional bodies.
The Maoists have maintained that it will seek a ‘national consensus’ in appointing the next head of state, which is another way of saying ‘anyone but a UML candidate’. 
But while allying with the NC might mean that Dahal can avoid a power imbalance with the UML, Dahal has concerns that NC may pull the rug before his tenure runs out. Multiple high-ranking Indian and US officials have made visits to Nepal in the days leading up to the presidential election, and Dahal suspects that they do not like Communists in general.
Dahal and Oli have also been meeting frequently to discuss the presidential election, and Oli has dangled a clever carrot: proposing Madhav Nepal of the CPN-US as a candidate. Nepal issued a coy response about the proposal, but has made it known he will be happy to step in. This puts Dahal in a dilemma, since he has already indicated to the NC that he is willing to make a deal.
If no party gets a simple majority in the votes on 9 March, a re-election will be held on 10 March. The election for vice president will be held on 17 March. The Election Commission is readying for the election in the Parliament premises in New Baneswor. 
There are 884 voters in the electoral college who will cast their ballots, of which 334 are from the federal House of Representatives and 550 from provincial assemblies. The votes will be weighted with federal parliament members getting 79 points to make 26,400 points and provincial assemblies getting 48 points each to make 26,386 votes.  
Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/an-unceremonious-president/"> An unceremonious President</a>, Editorial

Shristi Karki

The race for Shital Nibas

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="700" frameborder="0"> </iframe></div>

Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;