There are many signs of Nepal’s democratic decay, but the one that has made the stench unbearable in recent weeks is the agreement between the three political alpha males to divide up the five-year term of prime minister between themselves.
That <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/new-chapter-in-nepal-political-saga/">backroom deal </a>was not what Nepalis voted for in 2022. Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoist Centre (MC) has so far led three coalitions in two months: one with the Nepali Congress (NC) to fight elections, another with the UML to be prime minister himself, and then breaking that off to go back to the NC for the president’s election on 9 March.
Such <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-race-for-shital-nibas/">do-or-die desperation to get an expedient candidate</a> for a ceremonial post has shown just how deep the rot is. This graft-ridden male gerontocracy will do anything to cling to power through the skin of its teeth, the country be damned.
The recklessness does not just undermine Nepal’s hard-won democracy, but also invites instability and a dangerous drift towards extremism. It ignores the fact that only 61% of eligible voters bothered to cast their ballots last year with the message of ‘none-of-the above’. And among those who voted, most young Nepalis went for the independents.
The alternative RSP and non-party mayors served as an effective safety valve to secure the democratic system, and protect &nbsp;traditional parties. It temporarily allayed the deep disillusionment of voters, providing some hope that change was possible. &nbsp;
Those hopes have now been dashed with <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/for-whom-the-bell-tolls/">the RSP showing itself to be like the rest</a>. Although this may give comfort to Nepal’s serial politicians, it also shortens society’s frustration fuse. Nepal’s overseas workers are already threatening to stop sending money home unless they are allowed to vote, and politicians behave themselves.
&nbsp;None of the main parties, civil society and activists have spoken up against <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/rsp-quits-nepal-coalition/">populist media-bashing by RSP leader Rabi Lamichhane</a>. The parties may be relieved that blaming the messenger deflected some of the public anger against them, and kleptocrats could be glad that the media that has exposed their wrongdoings is being targeted for a change.
&nbsp;The superstructure of the Nepali state was already wobbly because its executive, legislative and judicial pillars were weakened. The media's fourth pillar, which had been defending democracy by using its <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/press-for-people/">constitutional right for press freedom</a>, has also been enfeebled.
It is easy to blame <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/geopolitical-tectonics/">geopolitics</a>: New Delhi’s domineering role in determining the course of Nepali politics, or the reverberations in Kathmandu of global Sino-US rivalry. But instability and external interference is a chicken-or-egg: do foreign powers interfere in Nepal because the government is weak, or does foreign interference weaken the government?
This being Nepal, things could change after the presidential election on 9 March, and the NC once again ditches the MC to lead the government. We will not be surprised if that happens.
It is hard to say who won and who lost in this see-saw politics. It seemed like KPO had outsmarted SBD, but then PKD suddenly switched sides, and KPO wooed MKN with presidentship. The 7-party coalition has been replaced with an 8-party one. Winners may not stay winners for long.
&nbsp;But in the end, everyone lost. And by far the biggest loss is to Nepal’s democracy. &nbsp;

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Premiership in instalments

<figure><img width="2048" height="1366" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230228150240/63fe128b9c7e80680e0da52cjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Ram Chandra Poudel, the Nepali Congress nominee for president, files his candidacy alongside NC chair Sher Bahadur Deuba and Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal on Saturday. Photos: GOPEN RAI</figcaption></figure>Nepal’s third president is most likely going to be Ram Chandra Paudel of the Nepali Congress (NC), but this will unravel the current six-party ruling coalition.The back-stabbing, power-sharing promises and backroom deals in the run-up to elections on 9 March have also shown that Nepal’s politics is still an opaque gerontocratic patriarchy in which a handful of superannuated men shuffle the cards every now and then.On Saturday, the UML also put forward its own presidential candidate: former speaker Subhas Nembang. But given the arithmetic of the new political alignment, Paudel’s win appears assured.The long saga that led to Paudel’s candidacy was the result of a triangular fight between the NC, the UML and the Maoist parties which have ruled Nepal in unstable coalitions since the end of the insurgency in 2006. <figure><img width="2048" height="1366" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230228150240/63fe128f9c7e80680e0da52djpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Being the largest party in Parliament, the NC had been outwitted by the UML (the second largest party) which broke an electoral partnership with the Maoists (the third largest in the House). The fact that the post of a ceremonial president was deemed so politically critical for all three parties shows just how cynical Nepali politics has become — all three need a pliant president in order to use the constitutional powers of the office for their own ends.All the main leaders in the fray: Ram Chandra Paudel and Sher Bahadur Deuba, K P Oli of the UML, Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoists, the CPN (Unified Socialist) Madhav Kumar Nepal, Upendra Yadav of the JSP and Mahanta Thakur of the LSP have all been in an out of government for the past 17 years.Paudel, Deuba, Nepal, Oli and Thakur are all above 70 and have been in active politics in Nepal for even longer. One could say that Nepal is in the state it is in because of these senior politicians, yet they refuse to let go.This is in direct contravention of the strongest message of elections in 2022 in which Nepali voters made their preference for a generational change in leadership and a departure from traditional politics felt. Although the new independent RSP has 19 seats in Parliament, the power play at the top is following the old way of doing things.  <img width="2048" height="1366" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230228150240/63fe12939c7e80680e0da52ejpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="2048" height="1366" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230228150240/63fe12979c7e80680e0da52fjpeg.jpg" alt="">The story so far goes like this:2020: The Nepal Communist Party (formed with the unity of the Maoist Centre and UML after the 2017 elections) starts falling apart due to a power struggle between Pushpa Kamal Dahal and K P Oli2021: Oli tries to dissolve Parliament but the Supreme Court blocks his move, and the NCP is bifurcated again into its constituent parties. Soon after, the UML also split.2022: The Maoists and NC form an electoral alliance for local, provincial and federal elections. The NC comes out as the first party, the UML second and the Maoists third. The fourth place is taken by the RSP which was formed only 5 months before editions. December 2022: The UML’s Oli pulls a fast one by proposing Dahal as prime minister in a 7-party coalition that includes the RSP and the royal-right RPP. In return, Oli secures an agreement from Dahal to reserve the presidency for the UML, and for Oli to take over as PM after 2.5 years. The NC is left out in the cold.January 2023: The NC and the Maoists realise that the UML will have the presidency, prime ministership, house speaker and other posts by 2025. The NC, therefore, gives a vote of confidence to Dahal in Parliament, meaning there is no opposition. The NC proposes that Dahal can remain prime minister for five years in return for its candidate to be president.February 2023: Dahal changes his tune and starts stressing that the president should be a “consensus candidate” even as there is a slew of high-level visits by Indian and American officials.18 February: Oli makes a last-ditch attempt to outwit Dahal by proposing Madhav Kumar Nepal as president so the 7-party coalition remains intact, and the NC continues to be sidelined.  24 February: Oli’s ploy does not work as Dahal is convinced by Deuba and NC to allow him to be prime minister for most of his tenure in return for NC’s candidate to be president and the JSP to have the vice-presidency.This being Nepal, anything can still happen till the 9 March election for president, and Oli could still pull a habit out of the hat. But it looks like a foregone conclusion that Ram Chandra Paudel will be the third president of Nepal. <img width="2048" height="1366" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230228150240/63fe129b9c7e80680e0da530jpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="2048" height="1366" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230228150240/63fe129f9c7e80680e0da531jpeg.jpg" alt="">The eight parties including the NC and Maoists that backed the deal are now on track to replace the 7-party coalition in the government. Some of the parties in the new lineup are already in the current coalition, although the UML, RSP and RPP are likely to stay in the opposition. The UML Central Committee Secretariat meeting on Saturday decided not to leave the 7-party coalition just yet, saying that it was just proposing Nembang as its candidate as power the earlier agreement with the Maoists. "The ruling coalition still exists. The 8-party alliance has not been formed, there is nothing in writing yet. Anything can happen between now and 9 March," says UML spokesperson Prithvi Subba Gurung. The elephants in the room are Nepal’s two big neighbours and the United States. The Chinese have made no secret that they would like the UML and Maoists to stay united, and in fact, its ambassador in Kathmandu lobbied to prevent the NCP from splitting in 2021.  Intensifying Sino-American rivalry means Washington would like to counter that by keeping the NC and the Maoists together - however different the ideologies of the left and right-wing parties may be. Strategically, New Delhi would go along with the American strategy. If no candidate gets a majority in the 9 March voting, a re-election will be held on 10 March. The vice presidential election will be held on 17 March. The Election Commission is readying for the election in the Parliament premises in New Baneswor.  Of 884 voters in the electoral college who will cast their ballots for the president and vice-president, 334 are from the federal House of Representatives and 550 from provincial assemblies. The votes are weighted with members of the federal parliament having 79 points for a total of 26,400, while provincial assemblies get 48 points each for 26,386 votes.  "It is good that a former prime minister is not a candidate, and also the NC and UML have put forward respectable candidates," says former Nepali ambassador to India Nilamber Acharya. "However, the way this process has been conducted it portends more instability because of the bad blood, suspicion, and distrust."

New chapter in Nepal political saga

<figure><img width="1235" height="585" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230228150240/63fe125a9c7e80680e0da51ajpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption></figcaption></figure>So fierce is the competition between Nepal’s three major parties to have a say in who the next ceremonial president is that it is threatening to break the governing coalition.
Which is puzzling, why are they concerned about a post that is largely symbolic and with residual constitutional powers? Because all the three parties have since 2017 misused (or been the victims of) the misuse of presidential powers. 
On Saturday, 25 February political parties will officially register their candidates for the presidential election set to take place on 9 March. There are many trial balloons being floated with names of potential candidates which include former prime ministers, ministers, top party leadership, as well as non-partisan figures.
From the Nepali Congress (NC) the names floating around include Ram Chandra Paudel, Krishna Prasad Sitaula, and even former Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba himself. Possible candidates from the UML include Ishwar Pokharel, Subhas Chandra Nembang, Bishnu Rimal, and Asta Laxmi Shakya.
CPN-Unified Socialist Chair Madhav Kumar Nepal as well as Nepal Socialist Party leader Baburam Bhattarai’s names have also come up in connection with the presidency. Mahanta Thakur of the Loktantrik Samajwadi Party has also been proposed as a candidate.
Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal is in the horns of a dilemma because he has promised the presidency to the NC, UML as well as his own party’s leaders. This means he is bound to disappoint and make enemies of everyone who does not make it to Shital Nibas on 9 March. 
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/constitutional-president/">Constitutional President</a>, Editorial
The decision should have been simple. On 25 December, Dahal broke his party’s alliance with the NC and erstwhile Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba to form a coalition with the UML and five other parties, in return for the UML getting the presidency. 
But Sher Bahadur Deuba threw a spanner in the works when he gave his party’s vote of confidence to Dahal on 10 January, keeping the door open for future political collaboration between the NC and Dahal’s Maoist Centre (MC).
And while the prime minister has maintained that his coalition will remain intact beyond 9 March, he has refused to guarantee a UML candidate for head of state.
“The ground reality has shifted between then and now,” spokesperson Krishna Bahadur Mahara said following the MC’s meeting to discuss the presidential election on Monday. 
The NC’s Deuba, Paudel, Sitaula, Gagan Thapa, and Bimalendra Nidhi have visited Dahal many times, apparently to assure him that he will get to be prime minister for five years if the NC gets the presidency.
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/geopolitical-tectonics/">Geopolitical tectonics</a>, Editorial
This a lollipop for Dahal, who would otherwise have to rotate prime ministership with Oli. And the UML would get to be all-powerful if it also gets to have a president as well as speaker, prime minister, and other heads of constitutional bodies.
The Maoists have maintained that it will seek a ‘national consensus’ in appointing the next head of state, which is another way of saying ‘anyone but a UML candidate’. 
But while allying with the NC might mean that Dahal can avoid a power imbalance with the UML, Dahal has concerns that NC may pull the rug before his tenure runs out. Multiple high-ranking Indian and US officials have made visits to Nepal in the days leading up to the presidential election, and Dahal suspects that they do not like Communists in general.
Dahal and Oli have also been meeting frequently to discuss the presidential election, and Oli has dangled a clever carrot: proposing Madhav Nepal of the CPN-US as a candidate. Nepal issued a coy response about the proposal, but has made it known he will be happy to step in. This puts Dahal in a dilemma, since he has already indicated to the NC that he is willing to make a deal.
If no party gets a simple majority in the votes on 9 March, a re-election will be held on 10 March. The election for vice president will be held on 17 March. The Election Commission is readying for the election in the Parliament premises in New Baneswor. 
There are 884 voters in the electoral college who will cast their ballots, of which 334 are from the federal House of Representatives and 550 from provincial assemblies. The votes will be weighted with federal parliament members getting 79 points to make 26,400 points and provincial assemblies getting 48 points each to make 26,386 votes.  
Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/an-unceremonious-president/"> An unceremonious President</a>, Editorial

Shristi Karki

The race for Shital Nibas

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.

Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy

American artist Peter Makela was in Nepal in 2022 on a Fulbright scholarship when he experienced the Matya festival in Patan in which devotees made the rounds of the city’s shrines.&nbsp;
He joined the procession, walking through 2,600 stupa and 140 bahal of the town. That immersion left a lasting impression.
As part of Gallery Mcube’s international residency program in Patan, he put his inspiration to canvas in the exhibition Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping. The exhibition also coincides with this month’s Matya festival.&nbsp;
Makela has visited Nepal often in the past 11 years but he mostly stayed in and spent his time around Boudha. “This time I stayed in Patan, put the sites I wanted to visit on my map, and off I went,” he tells us. “Each of my artwork is inspired by the stupas and shrines in Patan that I visited.”
The stupa and Ganesh are recurring motifs in his watercolours, and the elephant gods are located in chaityas — reflecting the interplay and blending of the Hindu and Buddhist faiths in Kathmandu Valley.&nbsp;
The stupas and Ganesh are painted in vivid red, yellow, blue and green against abstract backgrounds meant to represent the sky.
“I use the sky as a backdrop because the sky has no border,” says Makela. “The four colours represent the four elements, the different Buddha families and also lights bouncing off of a rainbow.”
The use of just four colours for all the artwork stands out, and combined with the absence of heavy canvases, frames or stands render Makela’s art striking in its simplicity.&nbsp;
The Ganesh is always holding something and the art also portrays the elephant god’s sacred vehicle, the mouse.
While his vibrant stupas and Ganesh reflect the tangibility of Patan’s tradition and heritage, it is as if the backdrops with their shades of grey and red and yellow capture the soul of the city’s shrines.
“If you look closely, there is a sense of form and formlessness at the same time,” he says.&nbsp;
Makela walked 108 kora around the shrines during his exploration of the town, and in the process developed a spiritual connection with Patan’s heritage and traditions.&nbsp;
The exhibition connects with visitors on a deeper, more spiritual, level as well. And with it, they feel a sense of pride as well as the need to urgently preserve Patan’s heritage for future generations.
“Peter’s inclination and approach towards Nepali art and culture is fascinating, and it reflects in his work,” says Mcube curator Manish Lal Shrestha, whose international artist residency program promotes Nepal’s cultural heritage. &nbsp;&nbsp;
Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping
1-5 August&nbsp;
10AM-7PM
Gallery Mcube, Patan