<figure><img width="3700" height="1900" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114101116/637208159c7e80680e0b54cajpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption></figcaption></figure>The coronavirus disease is one of the most well-documented health crises of recent times, with its correlation to almost every sector in society -- including the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/post-pandemic-mental-health-epidemic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">mental cost</a> of prolonged lockdowns and the stress during the pandemic. Studies have linked a higher prevalence of anxiety, depression, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), hypochondria, obsessive disorders and psychotic symptoms among the general population in the last two years.But for the first time, <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0262958&amp;fbclid=IwAR3GhEvU6qnCjQuwR-HEye8Jk3foYOofrmAgpLCgHZEhjm9r_2PWAOpZCBE" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">a new study</a> squarely links the rise in suicide ideation with the pandemic in Nepal. Police records also show a spike in suicides and self-harm cases in the past two years.Suicide cases had been rising even before the pandemic with 5,509 in 2018 and 5,898 in 2019. However, it jumped to 6,968 during the first year of the pandemic in 2020 — putting the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-sees-spike-in-suicides-during-pandemic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">suicide rate</a> at 23.9 per 100,000 population.‘The yearly increase in the suicide rate from 2019 to 2020 is 16%, which is more than threefold higher than a yearly increase in the suicide rate from 2018 to 2019 (5%),’ states the paper published on PLOS ONE last month.Titled ‘Association between COVID-19 pandemic and the suicide rates in Nepal’ and conducted by Binod Acharya, Keshav Subedi, Pramod Acharya and Shweta Ghimire, research analysed a total of 24,350 suicides in four years from July 2017 to June 2021 based on Nepal Police data.It investigated changing <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-other-pandemic-mental-health/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">suicide rates</a> in Nepal during the Covid-19 pandemic period (April 2020 to June 2021), compared to the pre-pandemic period (July 2017 to March 2020), adjusted for seasonality and long-term trends in the suicide rate.Males had a higher suicide rate (26.9 per 100,000) than females (16.5 per 100,000), but suicide rates went down over the last two years among males, but was sustained for a longer duration among females. <img width="542" height="600" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114101116/637208189c7e80680e0b54cbjpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="533" height="600" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114101116/6372081b9c7e80680e0b54ccjpeg.jpg" alt="">For example, all the pandemic months except April and May of 2020 and February and March of 2021 had a significantly higher suicide rate compared to the same months in 2019. In comparison to the same month in 2019, July 2020 (just after the first lockdown) had the highest increase in the suicide rate with an increment of 55%.Researchers have pointed out limited or lack of economic resources, public health infrastructure and awareness about mental health as leading factors for the increase in suicides in Nepal during the pandemic.Nepal is one of the countries with highest suicides rates in the world according to the World Health Organization (WHO). The 2021 Nepal Health Research Council (NHRC)’s National Mental Health Survey found the prevalence of suicidality (current suicidal thoughts, lifetime suicidal attempt and future likelihood of suicidal thoughts) at a high of 7.2% among Nepalis. During the study period of this latest survey, the highest proportion of the suicides were observed in Bagmati province (5,709; 23.4%), followed by Province 1 (5,161; 21.2%), Lumbini (4,757; 19.5%), Madhes (3,053; 12.5%), Gandaki (2,369; 9.7%), Sudurpaschim (2,176; 8.9%), and Karnali (1,125, 4.6%).But Sudurpaschim and Karnali provinces, two of the provinces with the lowest Human Development Index (HDI), had the highest increase in suicide rates associated with the Covid-19 pandemic.‘Sudarpaschim and Karnali regions are also known to have a historically high proportion of seasonal <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/in-the-minds-of-nepals-migrant-workers/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">migrant workers</a> in India. People in this region could have experienced additional distress as their migrant family members lost their jobs in India because of the business closure and lockdown,’ states the study.Alternatively, Province 1 which has the highest HDI and relatively low poverty rate among seven provinces has had consistently high pre-Covid-19 suicide rates, but had the smallest increase during the pandemic.Official data shows that Nepal registered an early increase in the suicide rate and mental health problems during the pandemic. Many factors come into play: lack of financial stimulus packages in the beginning, irresponsible media reportage about the virus, conflicting messages by authorities and the s<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-health-workers-battle-covid-19-but-also-stigma/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">ocial stigma of being infected</a> all added to the psychological stress in the public.Restrictions during the pandemic also meant that mental health patients were unable to get timely consultation and medication, further aggravating their condition. ‘Public health interventions to the pandemic, especially the severe ones like lockdowns and business closure, should incorporate economic safety nets and mental health service delivery mechanisms catered to geographic, socio-economic differences and needs,’ recommend the researchers. <img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114101116/6372081d9c7e80680e0b54cdjpeg.jpg" alt="">Suicides are preventable and treatment of mental health disorders can save lives. A comprehensive suicide surveillance system to maintain detailed suicide and attempt statistics within the jurisdiction of public health agencies rather than just the law-enforcement agencies can be a start.Addressing the underlying cause of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/coping-with-anxiety-in-new-lockdown/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">mental health problems</a> is still the most effective way to prevent suicides. This requires increased awareness and education through various platforms including social media, mass communication and school curriculum, which will in turn also help reduce the stigma associated with psychological disorders. Besides consultation and medication, family support plays a crucial role in healing people with trauma, depression or psychosis. Telemedicine, in particular, has been essential in preventing self-harm during the pandemic but these services need to be scaled up to cover the whole country.The paper concludes: ‘The Covid-19 pandemic is associated with an increased suicide rate in Nepal. The findings may inform policymakers in designing appropriate public health responses to the pandemic that are considerate of the potential impact on mental health and suicide.’Do not shy away from seeking help. If you, or anyone you know, would like to speak to a trained mental health professional, please contact:TUTH Suicide Hotline: 9840021600Transcultural Psychosocial Organisation-Nepal Crisis Hotline: 1660 0102005Mental Health Helpline Nepal: 1660 0133666Centre for Mental Health and Counselling Nepal Toll-free: 16600185080, Hotline: 1145Koshish Toll-free helpline: 166001-22322 (Bagmati Province)Patan Hospital Helpline: 9813476123National Suicide Prevention helpline operated by Mental Hospital Lagankhel and TPO: 1166

original

674x448

610x380

500x500

400x266

400x240

400x203

301x200

1250x600

1084x550

Suicides: a pandemic within a pandemic

<h2>The conflict and earthquake added to Nepal’s hidden epidemic of mental disorder</h2><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710114/6368ca479c7e80680e02f2fejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="1050"/><figcaption>MEMORIES: Nani Maiya Prajapati was serving lunch to her husband, daughter, son-in law and two grandchildren when the earthquake struck three years ago. She survived, but the rest of her family did not. The 2015 tragedy left mental scars on thousands of survivors like her that will take time to heal. ROJITA ADHIKARI</figcaption></figure><a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/stigma-and-silence-mental-health-nepal,3486">One-third of Nepalis</a> were already suffering some form of psychiatric disorder, but mental health experts say the numbers <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/psychological-scars-of-maoist-conflict-on-young-survivors-take-longer-to-heal,1519">went up significantly during the Maoist conflict</a> and rose again after the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/kundadixit/2015/05/27/a-month-that-felt-like-a-year/">2015 earthquake</a>.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710114/6368ca4a9c7e80680e02f2ffjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="130" height="101">Besides existing psychological disorders in the general population, there are now torture victims, child soldiers, combatants with post-traumatic stress disorders (PTSD), <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Mental-cost-of-migration,3159">mistreated migrant workers</a>, and lately earthquake survivors who had narrow escapes or lost family members.Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=4261&amp;preview=true">Time heals</a>, Prabin DhungelArun Bhattarai was lying down for a nap that Saturday three years ago when a deep underground rumble followed by a big jolt woke him up. His house in Dhading collapsed, and his family became earthquake refugees in Kathmandu. Bhattarai, now 46, suffered from insomnia and anxiety attacks for months afterwards. The trauma drove him to drink, but today after treatment he has beaten his alcoholism.“A lot of people suffered from anxiety, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/the-republic-of-insomnia,3311">post-traumatic stress disorder</a> and depression following trauma and bereavement during the earthquake, some even attempted suicide,” says mental health specialist Kapil Dev Upadhyay. “The disaster aggravated the psychosocial condition of many patients who were already recovering.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710114/6368ca4b9c7e80680e02f300jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="500" height="715"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><a href="https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Hidden-Aftershocks_Summary-Report.pdf">A survey</a> of earthquake-affected districts of Rasuwa, Nuwakot and Makwanpur for the Nepal Red Cross Society, conducted by the group Transcultural Psychosocial Organisation (TPO),  showed that nearly 40% of respondents suffered from <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/all-in-mind/the-silent-scream-depression-is-common-but-only-few-get-treatment,588">depression</a> and anxiety for a year-and-half after the earthquake. Another 22% said they had suicidal thoughts, and a quarter had taken to drinking heavily. More women than men were affected by the symptoms (see chart).Sunita KC was out for a Saturday walk with her husband at Kathmandu Darbar Square when nearby <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Monumental-loss,2215">monuments swayed and collapsed</a> in clouds of dust. The 23-year-old was plagued with nightmares and lost the will to live. She got better after medication, but three years later her symptoms have returned. This week KC was in a clinic in Kathmandu with her family for consultation where she was diagnosed with severe depression.At the Psychiatric Department of Teaching Hospital, Rishav Koirala estimates that every family has at least one member afflicted with some form of mental illness after the earthquake.“In a way, the earthquake was a blessing in disguise because it raised public awareness about mental health and partially removed the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=14138#.WthaP26FPIU">stigma</a>. The government was also forced to address mental healthcare.”Indeed, the government trained MBBS doctors to provide psychiatric help to survivors in the primary health care systems and district hospitals. Nepal’s Mental Health Policy, adopted in 1997 but rarely implemented, is finally being revised.At an <a href="http://mentalhealthconferencenepal.com/programme/">international conference on mental health in Kathmandu</a> in February, the government pledged to prioritise mental health, increase investment for a mental health focal unit in each provincial health ministry, and to recognise alcohol and substance abuse as mental health problems.“School level psychological education can help change societal attitudes towards mental disorders, and since Nepalis are resilient and family-oriented there is a support system,” says psychiatrist Namrata Pradhan at Model Hospital.Nepal has one of the lowest patients to psychiatrists ratios in the world. In addition, society has entrenched stigma about ‘mad’ people who are often ostracised, often by family members. Even before the earthquake, patients were left to fend for themselves.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710114/6368ca4d9c7e80680e02f301jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="878" height="516"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Rabi Shakya, professor of psychiatry at the Patan Academy of Health Sciences agrees that the public is more aware of mental disorders after the earthquake. “There has been a visible change in terms of awareness and general acceptance level regarding mental health, and as a result patients are coming out and seeking treatment,” he told Nepali Times this week.Post-earthquake studies have shown higher rates of psychiatric disorders, but the major limitation is the lack of a baseline study. The Nepal Health Research Council is now preparing a nationwide mental health survey later this year to help develop a longterm plan to upgrade psychiatric care.Says mental health activist and former patient Jagannath Lamichanne: “We need public awareness and acceptance so that people are comfortable with sharing their experiences, and that can be the most powerful tool for prevention.”Name of patients have been changed.Read also:<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/stigma-and-silence-mental-health-nepal,3486">Stigma and silence</a>,  Ketan Dulal<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/the-republic-of-insomnia,3311">The republic of insomnia</a>,  Editorial<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/psychological-scars-of-maoist-conflict-on-young-survivors-take-longer-to-heal,1519">Post-conflict stress syndrome</a>,  Taylor Caldwell<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/down-and-out,3158">Down and Out</a>,  Smriti Basnet

Sonia Awale

It’s all in the mind

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710114/6368ca509c7e80680e02f302jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="844"/><figcaption>Pic: Gopen Rai</figcaption></figure>Immediately after <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/kundadixit/2015/05/27/a-month-that-felt-like-a-year/">the earthquake</a>, there was a <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/the-republic-of-insomnia,3311">sudden surge of patients with mental disorders</a> in Kathmandu’s psychiatric clinics.But since 2016, records at the Nepal Mental Hospital and Bir Hospital show a sharp decrease in the number of patients with post-traumatic stress disorders. Doctors say the reason is that most patients with earthquake-related psychosocial issues received medication, counselling and support from families in the last three years.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710114/6368ca539c7e80680e02f303jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="130" height="101">Even so, some survivors still have anxiety attacks during an aftershock or when they hear loud noises. Pukar Gautam was a college student who found himself in the narrow alleys of Patan when the earthquake struck.Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=4260&amp;preview=true">All in the mind</a>, Sonia Awale“I was terrified and took cover below a sturdy beam,” Gautam remembers. He was traumatised for months afterwards, and even today feels claustrophobic in narrow, crowded alleys.Many traumatised children had to be counselled when schools reopened two months after the earthquake in 2015. They could not concentrate on their studies, had difficulty sleeping and looked distracted.Niroj Mali is a teacher at Chantal Mauduit Academy in Taukhel, and remembers students were still in shock when they came back to school. Instead of regular classes he had the children sing, dance and watch cartoons. “They are doing well now, the earthquake seems like a bad dream,” Mali says.Sandeep Bista, 32, works for the Red Cross and was trapped in a room in Bhaisepati with a visiting aunt when the earthquake struck. He was treated for persistent anxiety, and feels much better now. But his aunt suffers relapses and has to regularly visit the district hospital in Ramechhap.Chief Psychiatrist Lata Shrestha at the Nepal Mental Hospital confirms that the number of patients with psychological trauma has declined to levels before the earthquake. “I have seen more people now seeking psychological help and counselling for trauma and this is a positive side-effect of the earthquake,” she says.Nawal Jha was posted to hospitals in earthquake affected districts and remembers treating many survivors with <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/down-and-out,3158">mental disorders</a>. Younger patients who had seen much death and destruction were even <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/all-in-mind/suicide-after-earthquake,496">suicidal</a>, he remembers.Purnima Lama was in a building in Bungamati and suffered a fracture when the house she was in collapsed. She needed medical treatment, but was reluctant to seek psychological counselling. “I was scared <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/stigma-and-silence-mental-health-nepal,3486">others would think I was mad</a>,” she says, recalling how a relative was ostracised from her village in Dhading after she was mentally traumatised after a brother was killed during the conflict.Psychiatrist Basu Dev Karki also says societal attitudes towards mental disorders are changing: “People now look at mental health at par with other medical conditions. That is a positive step in ensuring the mental wellbeing of the people.”Some names have been altered.  Read also:<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/stigma-and-silence-mental-health-nepal,3486">Stigma and silence</a>,  Ketan Dulal<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/the-republic-of-insomnia,3311">The republic of insomnia</a>,  Editorial<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/psychological-scars-of-maoist-conflict-on-young-survivors-take-longer-to-heal,1519">Post-conflict stress syndrome</a>,  Taylor Caldwell<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/down-and-out,3158">Down and Out</a>,  Smriti Basnet

Time heals

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

&nbsp;
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="700" frameborder="0"> </iframe></div>

Nepal Election live results

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;