<figure><img width="3700" height="1900" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114101116/637208159c7e80680e0b54cajpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption></figcaption></figure>The coronavirus disease is one of the most well-documented health crises of recent times, with its correlation to almost every sector in society -- including the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/post-pandemic-mental-health-epidemic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">mental cost</a> of prolonged lockdowns and the stress during the pandemic. Studies have linked a higher prevalence of anxiety, depression, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), hypochondria, obsessive disorders and psychotic symptoms among the general population in the last two years.But for the first time, <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0262958&amp;fbclid=IwAR3GhEvU6qnCjQuwR-HEye8Jk3foYOofrmAgpLCgHZEhjm9r_2PWAOpZCBE" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">a new study</a> squarely links the rise in suicide ideation with the pandemic in Nepal. Police records also show a spike in suicides and self-harm cases in the past two years.Suicide cases had been rising even before the pandemic with 5,509 in 2018 and 5,898 in 2019. However, it jumped to 6,968 during the first year of the pandemic in 2020 — putting the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-sees-spike-in-suicides-during-pandemic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">suicide rate</a> at 23.9 per 100,000 population.‘The yearly increase in the suicide rate from 2019 to 2020 is 16%, which is more than threefold higher than a yearly increase in the suicide rate from 2018 to 2019 (5%),’ states the paper published on PLOS ONE last month.Titled ‘Association between COVID-19 pandemic and the suicide rates in Nepal’ and conducted by Binod Acharya, Keshav Subedi, Pramod Acharya and Shweta Ghimire, research analysed a total of 24,350 suicides in four years from July 2017 to June 2021 based on Nepal Police data.It investigated changing <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-other-pandemic-mental-health/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">suicide rates</a> in Nepal during the Covid-19 pandemic period (April 2020 to June 2021), compared to the pre-pandemic period (July 2017 to March 2020), adjusted for seasonality and long-term trends in the suicide rate.Males had a higher suicide rate (26.9 per 100,000) than females (16.5 per 100,000), but suicide rates went down over the last two years among males, but was sustained for a longer duration among females. <img width="542" height="600" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114101116/637208189c7e80680e0b54cbjpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="533" height="600" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114101116/6372081b9c7e80680e0b54ccjpeg.jpg" alt="">For example, all the pandemic months except April and May of 2020 and February and March of 2021 had a significantly higher suicide rate compared to the same months in 2019. In comparison to the same month in 2019, July 2020 (just after the first lockdown) had the highest increase in the suicide rate with an increment of 55%.Researchers have pointed out limited or lack of economic resources, public health infrastructure and awareness about mental health as leading factors for the increase in suicides in Nepal during the pandemic.Nepal is one of the countries with highest suicides rates in the world according to the World Health Organization (WHO). The 2021 Nepal Health Research Council (NHRC)’s National Mental Health Survey found the prevalence of suicidality (current suicidal thoughts, lifetime suicidal attempt and future likelihood of suicidal thoughts) at a high of 7.2% among Nepalis. During the study period of this latest survey, the highest proportion of the suicides were observed in Bagmati province (5,709; 23.4%), followed by Province 1 (5,161; 21.2%), Lumbini (4,757; 19.5%), Madhes (3,053; 12.5%), Gandaki (2,369; 9.7%), Sudurpaschim (2,176; 8.9%), and Karnali (1,125, 4.6%).But Sudurpaschim and Karnali provinces, two of the provinces with the lowest Human Development Index (HDI), had the highest increase in suicide rates associated with the Covid-19 pandemic.‘Sudarpaschim and Karnali regions are also known to have a historically high proportion of seasonal <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/in-the-minds-of-nepals-migrant-workers/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">migrant workers</a> in India. People in this region could have experienced additional distress as their migrant family members lost their jobs in India because of the business closure and lockdown,’ states the study.Alternatively, Province 1 which has the highest HDI and relatively low poverty rate among seven provinces has had consistently high pre-Covid-19 suicide rates, but had the smallest increase during the pandemic.Official data shows that Nepal registered an early increase in the suicide rate and mental health problems during the pandemic. Many factors come into play: lack of financial stimulus packages in the beginning, irresponsible media reportage about the virus, conflicting messages by authorities and the s<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-health-workers-battle-covid-19-but-also-stigma/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">ocial stigma of being infected</a> all added to the psychological stress in the public.Restrictions during the pandemic also meant that mental health patients were unable to get timely consultation and medication, further aggravating their condition. ‘Public health interventions to the pandemic, especially the severe ones like lockdowns and business closure, should incorporate economic safety nets and mental health service delivery mechanisms catered to geographic, socio-economic differences and needs,’ recommend the researchers. <img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114101116/6372081d9c7e80680e0b54cdjpeg.jpg" alt="">Suicides are preventable and treatment of mental health disorders can save lives. A comprehensive suicide surveillance system to maintain detailed suicide and attempt statistics within the jurisdiction of public health agencies rather than just the law-enforcement agencies can be a start.Addressing the underlying cause of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/coping-with-anxiety-in-new-lockdown/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">mental health problems</a> is still the most effective way to prevent suicides. This requires increased awareness and education through various platforms including social media, mass communication and school curriculum, which will in turn also help reduce the stigma associated with psychological disorders. Besides consultation and medication, family support plays a crucial role in healing people with trauma, depression or psychosis. Telemedicine, in particular, has been essential in preventing self-harm during the pandemic but these services need to be scaled up to cover the whole country.The paper concludes: ‘The Covid-19 pandemic is associated with an increased suicide rate in Nepal. The findings may inform policymakers in designing appropriate public health responses to the pandemic that are considerate of the potential impact on mental health and suicide.’Do not shy away from seeking help. If you, or anyone you know, would like to speak to a trained mental health professional, please contact:TUTH Suicide Hotline: 9840021600Transcultural Psychosocial Organisation-Nepal Crisis Hotline: 1660 0102005Mental Health Helpline Nepal: 1660 0133666Centre for Mental Health and Counselling Nepal Toll-free: 16600185080, Hotline: 1145Koshish Toll-free helpline: 166001-22322 (Bagmati Province)Patan Hospital Helpline: 9813476123National Suicide Prevention helpline operated by Mental Hospital Lagankhel and TPO: 1166

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Suicides: a pandemic within a pandemic

<h2>The conflict and earthquake added to Nepal’s hidden epidemic of mental disorder</h2><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710114/6368ca479c7e80680e02f2fejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="1050"/><figcaption>MEMORIES: Nani Maiya Prajapati was serving lunch to her husband, daughter, son-in law and two grandchildren when the earthquake struck three years ago. She survived, but the rest of her family did not. The 2015 tragedy left mental scars on thousands of survivors like her that will take time to heal. ROJITA ADHIKARI</figcaption></figure><a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/stigma-and-silence-mental-health-nepal,3486">One-third of Nepalis</a> were already suffering some form of psychiatric disorder, but mental health experts say the numbers <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/psychological-scars-of-maoist-conflict-on-young-survivors-take-longer-to-heal,1519">went up significantly during the Maoist conflict</a> and rose again after the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/kundadixit/2015/05/27/a-month-that-felt-like-a-year/">2015 earthquake</a>.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710114/6368ca4a9c7e80680e02f2ffjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="130" height="101">Besides existing psychological disorders in the general population, there are now torture victims, child soldiers, combatants with post-traumatic stress disorders (PTSD), <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Mental-cost-of-migration,3159">mistreated migrant workers</a>, and lately earthquake survivors who had narrow escapes or lost family members.Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=4261&amp;preview=true">Time heals</a>, Prabin DhungelArun Bhattarai was lying down for a nap that Saturday three years ago when a deep underground rumble followed by a big jolt woke him up. His house in Dhading collapsed, and his family became earthquake refugees in Kathmandu. Bhattarai, now 46, suffered from insomnia and anxiety attacks for months afterwards. The trauma drove him to drink, but today after treatment he has beaten his alcoholism.“A lot of people suffered from anxiety, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/the-republic-of-insomnia,3311">post-traumatic stress disorder</a> and depression following trauma and bereavement during the earthquake, some even attempted suicide,” says mental health specialist Kapil Dev Upadhyay. “The disaster aggravated the psychosocial condition of many patients who were already recovering.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710114/6368ca4b9c7e80680e02f300jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="500" height="715"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><a href="https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Hidden-Aftershocks_Summary-Report.pdf">A survey</a> of earthquake-affected districts of Rasuwa, Nuwakot and Makwanpur for the Nepal Red Cross Society, conducted by the group Transcultural Psychosocial Organisation (TPO),  showed that nearly 40% of respondents suffered from <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/all-in-mind/the-silent-scream-depression-is-common-but-only-few-get-treatment,588">depression</a> and anxiety for a year-and-half after the earthquake. Another 22% said they had suicidal thoughts, and a quarter had taken to drinking heavily. More women than men were affected by the symptoms (see chart).Sunita KC was out for a Saturday walk with her husband at Kathmandu Darbar Square when nearby <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Monumental-loss,2215">monuments swayed and collapsed</a> in clouds of dust. The 23-year-old was plagued with nightmares and lost the will to live. She got better after medication, but three years later her symptoms have returned. This week KC was in a clinic in Kathmandu with her family for consultation where she was diagnosed with severe depression.At the Psychiatric Department of Teaching Hospital, Rishav Koirala estimates that every family has at least one member afflicted with some form of mental illness after the earthquake.“In a way, the earthquake was a blessing in disguise because it raised public awareness about mental health and partially removed the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=14138#.WthaP26FPIU">stigma</a>. The government was also forced to address mental healthcare.”Indeed, the government trained MBBS doctors to provide psychiatric help to survivors in the primary health care systems and district hospitals. Nepal’s Mental Health Policy, adopted in 1997 but rarely implemented, is finally being revised.At an <a href="http://mentalhealthconferencenepal.com/programme/">international conference on mental health in Kathmandu</a> in February, the government pledged to prioritise mental health, increase investment for a mental health focal unit in each provincial health ministry, and to recognise alcohol and substance abuse as mental health problems.“School level psychological education can help change societal attitudes towards mental disorders, and since Nepalis are resilient and family-oriented there is a support system,” says psychiatrist Namrata Pradhan at Model Hospital.Nepal has one of the lowest patients to psychiatrists ratios in the world. In addition, society has entrenched stigma about ‘mad’ people who are often ostracised, often by family members. Even before the earthquake, patients were left to fend for themselves.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710114/6368ca4d9c7e80680e02f301jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="878" height="516"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Rabi Shakya, professor of psychiatry at the Patan Academy of Health Sciences agrees that the public is more aware of mental disorders after the earthquake. “There has been a visible change in terms of awareness and general acceptance level regarding mental health, and as a result patients are coming out and seeking treatment,” he told Nepali Times this week.Post-earthquake studies have shown higher rates of psychiatric disorders, but the major limitation is the lack of a baseline study. The Nepal Health Research Council is now preparing a nationwide mental health survey later this year to help develop a longterm plan to upgrade psychiatric care.Says mental health activist and former patient Jagannath Lamichanne: “We need public awareness and acceptance so that people are comfortable with sharing their experiences, and that can be the most powerful tool for prevention.”Name of patients have been changed.Read also:<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/stigma-and-silence-mental-health-nepal,3486">Stigma and silence</a>,  Ketan Dulal<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/the-republic-of-insomnia,3311">The republic of insomnia</a>,  Editorial<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/psychological-scars-of-maoist-conflict-on-young-survivors-take-longer-to-heal,1519">Post-conflict stress syndrome</a>,  Taylor Caldwell<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/down-and-out,3158">Down and Out</a>,  Smriti Basnet

Sonia Awale

It’s all in the mind

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710114/6368ca509c7e80680e02f302jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="844"/><figcaption>Pic: Gopen Rai</figcaption></figure>Immediately after <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/kundadixit/2015/05/27/a-month-that-felt-like-a-year/">the earthquake</a>, there was a <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/the-republic-of-insomnia,3311">sudden surge of patients with mental disorders</a> in Kathmandu’s psychiatric clinics.But since 2016, records at the Nepal Mental Hospital and Bir Hospital show a sharp decrease in the number of patients with post-traumatic stress disorders. Doctors say the reason is that most patients with earthquake-related psychosocial issues received medication, counselling and support from families in the last three years.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710114/6368ca539c7e80680e02f303jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="130" height="101">Even so, some survivors still have anxiety attacks during an aftershock or when they hear loud noises. Pukar Gautam was a college student who found himself in the narrow alleys of Patan when the earthquake struck.Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=4260&amp;preview=true">All in the mind</a>, Sonia Awale“I was terrified and took cover below a sturdy beam,” Gautam remembers. He was traumatised for months afterwards, and even today feels claustrophobic in narrow, crowded alleys.Many traumatised children had to be counselled when schools reopened two months after the earthquake in 2015. They could not concentrate on their studies, had difficulty sleeping and looked distracted.Niroj Mali is a teacher at Chantal Mauduit Academy in Taukhel, and remembers students were still in shock when they came back to school. Instead of regular classes he had the children sing, dance and watch cartoons. “They are doing well now, the earthquake seems like a bad dream,” Mali says.Sandeep Bista, 32, works for the Red Cross and was trapped in a room in Bhaisepati with a visiting aunt when the earthquake struck. He was treated for persistent anxiety, and feels much better now. But his aunt suffers relapses and has to regularly visit the district hospital in Ramechhap.Chief Psychiatrist Lata Shrestha at the Nepal Mental Hospital confirms that the number of patients with psychological trauma has declined to levels before the earthquake. “I have seen more people now seeking psychological help and counselling for trauma and this is a positive side-effect of the earthquake,” she says.Nawal Jha was posted to hospitals in earthquake affected districts and remembers treating many survivors with <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/down-and-out,3158">mental disorders</a>. Younger patients who had seen much death and destruction were even <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/all-in-mind/suicide-after-earthquake,496">suicidal</a>, he remembers.Purnima Lama was in a building in Bungamati and suffered a fracture when the house she was in collapsed. She needed medical treatment, but was reluctant to seek psychological counselling. “I was scared <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/stigma-and-silence-mental-health-nepal,3486">others would think I was mad</a>,” she says, recalling how a relative was ostracised from her village in Dhading after she was mentally traumatised after a brother was killed during the conflict.Psychiatrist Basu Dev Karki also says societal attitudes towards mental disorders are changing: “People now look at mental health at par with other medical conditions. That is a positive step in ensuring the mental wellbeing of the people.”Some names have been altered.  Read also:<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/stigma-and-silence-mental-health-nepal,3486">Stigma and silence</a>,  Ketan Dulal<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/the-republic-of-insomnia,3311">The republic of insomnia</a>,  Editorial<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/psychological-scars-of-maoist-conflict-on-young-survivors-take-longer-to-heal,1519">Post-conflict stress syndrome</a>,  Taylor Caldwell<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/down-and-out,3158">Down and Out</a>,  Smriti Basnet

Time heals

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.

Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy

French citizen Louis arrived in Nepal for the first time earlier this year, planning to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/the-abcs-of-a-winter-trek-in-nepal">trek the Annapurna Circuit </a>before heading down to Bardia to hopefully catch a glimpse of some<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-counting-its-tigers"> tigers</a>. Before he began his journey from Besisahar, Louis (who only revealed his first name) had imagined breathing crisp mountain air, and following the melodious gurgle of the Marsyangdi.&nbsp; Instead, he had to breathe fumes and dust all the way to Chame. Louis says he masked his face with a handkerchief: “It was not what I expected, this is not right.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080304080_f03fce1527cf8a63178e4e82589a1a7096c8cfa28893ca4a5f7fe82d91a6e38a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="2025080304080_f03fce1527cf8a63178e4e82589a1a7096c8cfa28893ca4a5f7fe82d91a6e38a" data-rendition-name="original" width="2419" height="1814" loading="lazy" alt="Manang trails NT 1"> </figure>  Many other trekkers are similarly disappointed as roads have been built along what used to be <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/a-walk-back-in-time-chandragiri-hatiban">walking trails</a>. Manang and Humla are the last remote regions in the Himalaya to be connected to the national road network. &nbsp;Construction of the 87km Besisahar-Manang road began in 1994, but was stalled during <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/14-years-after-conflict-no-closure-in-nepal">the Maoist conflic</a>t, and finally finished in 2012.&nbsp; Most of it has not yet been blacktopped, and sections have been carved out of vertical cliff faces, making them treacherous. But it has allowed road access to Manang, a journey that previously took a week on foot.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080304084_32b3ca875a0df9f1dd42dbe915e6f6a2cd4f2e53f1cf2d3ee5cbdb3435905000.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="2025080304084_32b3ca875a0df9f1dd42dbe915e6f6a2cd4f2e53f1cf2d3ee5cbdb3435905000" data-rendition-name="original" width="2400" height="1505" loading="lazy" alt="Manang trails NT 1"> </figure>  While the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-road-out-of-nepal">road has improved access</a>, it has impacted on<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/trekking-in-the-time-of-climate-change"> trekking tourism </a>— the mainstay of Manang’s economy. The number of tourists visiting the scenic valley behind the Annapurnas grew from 21,245 in 2023 to 30,866 in 2024. The Annapurna Circuit is known for unique sights like <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=9194">Tilicho</a>, one of the highest lakes in the world, the Thorong La pass that connects Manang to Mustang, and the valley’s own rich cultural heritage. Thorong La at 5,416m is the highest hiking pass in the world, and was used by locals for trade with Mustang before it became a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/lift-restrictions-on-upper-mustang">popular trekking route</a>. &nbsp; “For guests, the excitement of reaching Thorong La is now overshadowed by their disappointment of having to journey through dusty roads to get there,” says Manang lodge-owner Ongma Gurung. “That is the complaint we get the most.” <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/tourism-that-treads-lightly-on-the-land">Local tourism </a>operators are trying to get the government to build alternative foot trails. But there have been delays due to a lack of budget.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080304084_c5f76e398182785bb17846a148e3ca89de5687b4623580f8e2d725a7a287edfa.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="2025080304084_c5f76e398182785bb17846a148e3ca89de5687b4623580f8e2d725a7a287edfa" data-rendition-name="original" width="2419" height="1762" loading="lazy" alt="Manang trails"> </figure>  The Naso Rural Municipality has identified other routes along the Annapurna Circuit in Chyamche, Tal, and Khotro so trekkers can bypass heavy vehicles involved in the construction of the Manang-Marsyangdi Hydropower Project. “But the local government cannot do everything,” admits the chair Dhan Bahadur Gurung. “And for leaders in Kathmandu, Manang is out of sight and out of mind.” Munindra Jung Gurung represents Manang in the Gandaki Provincial Assembly, and says he has raised the issue in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/pokhara-s-tourism-woes">Pokhara</a>. He is hopeful there will be a hearing. To be sure, the road is not all bad news. Locals benefit, the number of visitors has grown, and trekkers can now also save time and use it to explore <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=5960">side valleys in Manang</a>, visiting the villages like Nar and Phu. Annapurna Conservation Area (ACA) chief Rabin Kadariya concedes that the road to Upper Manang was crucial to connect the remote region with the rest of Nepal, but adds: “We have built an alternative trail connecting Talgaun, and we will consult local communities about their priorities on other hiking trails.”&nbsp;