In the first two episodes of this series, we looked at how <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/people-and-mountains-are-thirsty-in-eastern-nepal">climate breakdown has worsened the water shortage in eastern Nepal</a>, with rains failing and springs going dry.&nbsp; But there is a flipside. In the monsoon, there is also the curse of too much rain leading to destructive landslides, floods driving people out.&nbsp; <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/climate-crisis-drought-food-deficit-migration">Analysing meteorological and hydrological data from the past half-a-century in eastern Nepal’s Tamor River basin</a>, the big floods of 1963 and 1968 stand out with other less destructive monsoons in between.&nbsp; Nepal’s monsoons usually last 112 days from mid-June to mid-September, and its clockwork arrival and departure has inspired Nepali poetry and song. But climate breakdown has disrupted the timetable, and there have been years with highly unusual monsoons and floods. In 1968, the monsoon delivered more rain than usual in some places and less than normal in others, and the big floods actually came after the monsoon is supposed to have retreated.&nbsp; The national news agency RSS reported a damaging flood in Sunsari, the district in the plains where the Kosi River disgorges into the plains after confluence of the Arun, Sun Kosi and Tamor. Three days later, RSS reported that 500 cattle and 1,500 goats had drowned in Sunsari, and a child’s body had been found. And upstream in Leuti Khola, three people and seven houses were swept away. A week later, RSS reported again that seven people and 14 livestock had been killed by floods, and bridges as well as paddy ready for harvest were swept away. Even upstream in Olangchung Gola, three people were killed.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240427010452_9fe3ea424cd644cb1f5a06a731f44d466d70216f39d943e0bd4a5f6f13fdf90d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20240427010452_9fe3ea424cd644cb1f5a06a731f44d466d70216f39d943e0bd4a5f6f13fdf90d" data-rendition-name="original" width="1688" height="1088" loading="lazy" alt="Water crisis in Eastern Nepal"> </figure>  Laxmi Prasad Siwakoti was a boy in 1968, and remembers enormous boulders thundering down rivers. One boulder the size of a house luckily was pushed to the banks before it could destroy a key bridge below Taplejung. All this water created even more death and destruction in the inland delta of Sunsari, also washing down the bodies of people and livestock from upstream. The 1968 post-monsoon flow of the Kosi reached 23,106 cumecs – four times the volume in the 1963 flood. Some researchers attributed the 1963 flood to the bursting of Tiptala Glacial Lake in the Kangchenjunga area, and that the 1968 flood was also caused by another moraine collapse on the same lake.&nbsp; But analysis of precipitation data of the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology shows that the reason for the catastrophic floods of 1968 was unusually heavy post-monsoon rainfall in the Tamor basin. Archival records of rainfall at Mulghat below Dhankuta shows that there was 162mm of rain on 3 October and another 158mm on 4 October. This meant that one-third of the total rainfall during four monsoon months fell in just two days. Never had Mulghat recorded so much rain in such a short time, and in the 55 years since there has been that much rain only twice. On 4-5 October 1968, Dhankuta received 300mm of rain. It had never received so much rain in the autumn before or since. Similarly, Taplejung recorded 231mm of rain in the same two days – it has never received so much rain in the post-monsoon since. Hydro-meteorological stations across eastern Nepal in Panchthar, Taplejung, Dhankuta and Sankhusabha all show data of record-breaking post-monsoon precipitation on 3-4 October 1968. In fact data shows that except for northwestern Nepal, there was heavy unseasonal rain all over. Dhulikhel near Kathmandu recorded 221mm rain that day, and even Jomsom in the trans-Himalayan rainshadow got 58% of its annual rainfall in just one week. In a paper titled Heavy Monsoon Rainfall in Nepal, J L Nayava dug up an archival weather map from 1968 that showed a cyclone develop in the Bay of Bengal a week after the official retreat of the monsoon from Nepal in conjunction with a low pressure area over southern India. Both systems moved northwards, and it could have been the combination of the two that dumped the record rainfall in Nepal.&nbsp; Nayava notes: ‘On 29 September, a small low appeared over the Bay of Bengal at about 10°N, 90°E. During the next two days, the circulation of this low expanded as it moved north-eastwards into central India and intensified into a depression. By 3 October, Nepal and much of India had come within the circulation of this depression… During the next two days, a sharp 500mb trough passed through Nepal and central India and as the polar westerlies at 200mb intensified and moved equatorwards, bringing the subtropical westerly jetstreams ever closer to Nepal. As the depression moved north, the anticyclonic circulation at 200mb over the depression intensified and became orientated in a south-west-north-east direction. Associated with these developments, widespread rain fell in most parts of Nepal…’  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240427010452_6fc01e56307dfd3c43e58d7170346d11a1fd8ee2a748074b22aa84bcfdab8369.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20240427010452_6fc01e56307dfd3c43e58d7170346d11a1fd8ee2a748074b22aa84bcfdab8369" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Water crisis in Eastern Nepal"> </figure>  It was not just eastern Nepal that suffered destruction, many people were killed in Bhojpur, Khotang and Solu to the west. If this was indeed a glacial lake outburst flood, the destruction would not have been so widespread. The hydrological data of the Tamor of 3-5 October 1968 are also not commensurate with a flash flood triggered by a glacial lake burst. The Mulghat hydrological stations showed that on 4 October, there was 3,060 cumec of flow (volume of water never recorded before) which decreased only slightly over the next few days and returned to a more normal 636 cumecs only on 9 October.&nbsp; By the time the rains stopped that October, 60 people were dead in Kosi zone alone, thousands of livestock were killed and houses swept away. The new bridge over the Tamor and other suspension bridges were destroyed. But that was not the end of the story. On 29 October 1968 came news that 91 people had been killed in Taplejung, 60 in Terathum, 30 in Panchthar and three in Dhankuta. Just in the Tamor watershed, 184 people were killed and thousands made homeless. Nepalis have learnt over the years to be prepared for disasters during the monsoon, and to breathe a sigh of relief when the rains end. But the 1968 floods hit after the monsoon, when people felt safer. Floods were nothing new in the Tamor. There was an unimaginable one five years earlier on 15 August 1963 that swept away 16 houses in Olangchung Gola, and this flood was different from the one in 1968. Locals remember an air blast preceding the flash flood, and an approaching roar that shook the mountains like an earthquake. Houses shook, cattle cowered and goats ran for cover. Upstream, villagers saw clouds of dust and spray, and there was a smell of gunpowder in the air as enormous boulders collided with each other. Although this was the monsoon period, the precipitation in the day preceding the debris flow was normal. This could not have been caused by a cloudburst. Alton C Byers, the American glaciologist who has researched historical glacial floods in the Kangchenjunga region, used satellite imagery and interviews with local villagers to pinpoint the flood to the bursting of Tiptala glacial lake at 4,900m. “The gunpowder smell and the wind preceded the arrival of the debris flow,” remembers Nil Limbu of Chhiruwa of Taplejung, an eye witness of the 1963 event. “It destroyed everything, took away all the trees, left just rocks and boulders.” The flood washed away the mule trail along the Tamor, and swept away the flat meadow along the river where there used to be a weekly market. Today, the trail is higher above the river, but for years later, there used to be rockfalls from above. The debris flow raced downstream destroying houses, trails, bridges, farms, livestock. The flood made national news, and RSS reported that below Dhankuta, the Tamor destroyed the trail to Taplejung and washed away seven bridges. The glacial lake outburst flood on the Tamor met the Arun and then the Kosi where the river flow spiked to 6,371 cumecs. Further downstream in the plains, the flood destroyed the western embankment of the Kosi Barrage, inundating villages in more than 1m of water. A month later, the government released the death toll: 32 killed, unknown number of livestock, standing crops, and causing damage equivalent to 1.6% of Nepal’s annual budget that year. Nepal’s famous eye doctor Sanduk Ruit’s family also had to leave their home in Olangchung Gola after that flood and settled down in Dhankuta. The combined result of the record rainfall-induced floods of 1968 as well as the glacial lake outburst flood of 1963 could have been early examples of climate-induced floods, which have become more frequent in recent years.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240427010456_c6e6182935c1704629e175dc351f79b74367824a14be020d0b05bdda201a2747.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20240427010456_c6e6182935c1704629e175dc351f79b74367824a14be020d0b05bdda201a2747" data-rendition-name="original" width="1036" height="1184" loading="lazy" alt="Water crisis in Eastern Nepal"> </figure>  On 17 June 2023 Memeng station in Panchthar recorded 230mm rainfall in a 24 hour period, the highest rainfall ever recorded in that station (second highest was 148mm in July 2002). Nearby Dovan of Taplejung experienced 106mm on 18 June and 102mm on 19 June. The basin-wide floods on the Tamor and its tributaries caused damage worth at least Rs8.5 billion on 30 hydropower plants in Sankhuwasabha, Taplejung and Panchthar. Eighteen workers were killed. Half of these schemes were under construction, but plants generating 130MW were knocked out of action. Some, like the Upper Piluwa Khola 2 and Super Hewa Khola have still not been repaired. While these were all caused by extreme rainfall events, on the Sikkim side of Kangchenjunga a post-monsoon disaster on 4 October 2023 washed away several hydropower plants on Teesta and its tributaries, and killed nearly 100 people downstream. The 1,200MW Chungthang Dam built at a cost of $1billion was destroyed. It was later revealed that extreme rainfall on the South Lhonak Glacial Lake, north of Kangchenjunga, caused the collapse of a lateral moraine which allowed a wave to breach the terminal moraine. The lateral moraine could have been weakened by thawing permafrost, and collapsed during heavy rainfall on the night of 4 October.&nbsp; The Sikkim disaster was an important lesson for Nepal, which has invested heavily in infrastructure on this side of the border. More than a dozen medium and large hydropower plants have been built or are under construction along the Tamor alone. The 1960 Tiptala and the 1980 Nangama glacial lake bursts are further proof that such disasters can happen again without warning because of climate breakdown. Besides droughts and floods, landslides are also the reason many people from eastern Nepal have migrated to the relative safety of the plains. A huge landslide in 1946 in Hangdeva in Taplejung is still displacing many people. East of Hangdeva, another landslide in 1977 killed 25 people and the rest of the village just moved out. It is clear that with the climate crisis, extreme weather events and glacial lake bursts will be more serious and frequent, affecting lives and livelihoods, contributing to outmigration.&nbsp; This is the final of a three-part series supported by the Barbara Foundation.

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Either too little, or too much water

Rainfall data from eastern Nepal collected over the past 70 years point to a strong <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-waste-land">correlation between chronic drought and outmigration</a>. Repeated and more frequent monsoon failures forced more and more people to abandon villages.&nbsp; Terathum, Dhankuta, Panchthar and Taplejung districts lost more than 40% of their population between 2001 and 2021. Archival data of the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology shows that rainfall was below the annual national average for almost every year since the 1960s in what is supposed to be the wettest part of the country.&nbsp; In Panchakanya village of Terathum 40% of residents left in those 20 years. A nearby village, Thoklung, lost 42% of its population. Across the Tamor River, 44% of the people left the village of Kurule. A third of the inhabitants of Symbarumba in Panchthar left for the plains or cities.&nbsp; “People are still leaving. Those who have not migrated are also thinking about going down to Dharan or Damak,” says Chathar Ward 4 Chair Pushpa Karki, who says there were 2,500 votes cast in this ward in 2017 and in the 2022 local election there were only 1,125 ballots.&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-climate-crisis-is-a-water-crisis-in-the-himalaya">The climate crisis is a water crisis in the Himalaya</a>, Sonia Awale To be sure, there are other factors behind this exodus which is happening right across Nepal’s mountains, such as a dearth of well-paying jobs, poor health care, and few opportunities for higher education. But the main reason is that <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/high-and-dry">droughts</a> destroy crops.&nbsp; “There was a severe drought in the summer of 2018, the maize plants dried in their stalks and turned to straw,” remembers Tara Kharel Dhakal, Deputy Mayor of Chathar in Terathum. “People ran out of food and were desperate. We declared an emergency.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240406020432_abeec2acd7e0b1986c5a101109365ea57f70e81925fb522a5e2edf191eefbd98.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20240406020432_abeec2acd7e0b1986c5a101109365ea57f70e81925fb522a5e2edf191eefbd98" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate → crisis → drought → food → deficit → migration"> <figcaption>HIGH AND DRY, LOW AND WET: Parched fields above the Tamor River in Panchakanya village in eastern Nepal in March (above) and irrigated bamboo-fringed terrace farms in Taplejung.</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240406020432_d56cdd7be3761fac279a5add402d766cceef89bf1a535066acd30576e81b8613.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20240406020432_d56cdd7be3761fac279a5add402d766cceef89bf1a535066acd30576e81b8613" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate → crisis → drought → food → deficit → migration"> </figure>  Rainfall data for Terathum in 2018 corroborates that there was almost no rain in winter, and to make things worse, the district only saw half of its usual rain that monsoon.&nbsp; The rainfall gauges are located near the tops of mountains, where there is usually more precipitation. So the slopes below likely got even less rain than was recorded.&nbsp; Farmers had no irrigation systems to fall back on. <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Recharging-the-mountains,3465#google_vignette">Springs are rare and have gone dry,</a> and the Tamor River is too far down the mountain.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240406020444_9d23945324a19dfcecf26cafe19a9ac9cc4a11abfde5bde9e4bbbea9c64ca916.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20240406020444_9d23945324a19dfcecf26cafe19a9ac9cc4a11abfde5bde9e4bbbea9c64ca916" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate → crisis → drought → food → deficit → migration"> <figcaption>BROWN AND GREEN: Constrasting colours of fields in Terathum between those without irrigation (foreground, above), and with irrigation from a side stream. The glacier-fed Tamor River has plenty of water in the dry season (below) but it is too far down to be pumped up the mountain.</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240406020444_d31629e168b47eb330543f3f3ac992778bccea52fe32446a776580194b143214.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20240406020444_d31629e168b47eb330543f3f3ac992778bccea52fe32446a776580194b143214" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1018" loading="lazy" alt="Climate → crisis → drought → food → deficit → migration"> </figure>  Prevailing wisdom suggests that Nepal is drier the more west you go, and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/how-the-climate-crisis-adds-to-child-marriage-in-nepal">the Karnali and Sudur Paschim regions are most drought prone</a>. Outmigration due to water scarcity in Mustang district has emptied villages. But it looks like the climate crisis is causing dry spells even in the usually wet mountains of eastern Nepal.&nbsp; Only a quarter of arable land in Nepal is irrigated, and most of that is in the Tarai. Subsistence farmers in the mountains depend on rain-fed agriculture, so when it does not rain their only option is to migrate for work. Rainfall data from measuring stations over the past 50 years or more across the eastern mountains shows that winter rain and monsoon failures have become more frequent.&nbsp; y nly 80% of the normal annual rain fell in 2018 in Mulghat, and the corn and buckwheat harvests were reduced in nearby Kurule. The local government gave cash handouts to farmers, but this did not convince people to stay. <div class="embed-block"><iframe title="Tamor river discharge at Mulghat" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-8t8ts" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/8t8ts/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="396" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script></div> In an average year, Jhapa and Ilam in the east get about 3,300mm of rain. Kathmandu Valley sees about 1,400mm, and Darchula in the far-west receives 700mm. The least precipitation is in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/mustang-forced-to-adapt-to-climate-crisis">Mustang</a> and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-change-is-a-disaster-in-the-nepal-himalaya">Dolpo in the trans-Himalayan rainshadow</a>, although even these districts have seen some freak rainfall of late.&nbsp; Even though the total annual precipitation may still be the same, often the quality of rain is different: there are damaging torrential downpours and then weeks of no rain at all.&nbsp; Watershed expert Madhukar Upadhya describes eastern Nepal’s micro-climates, where wide variations exist even within small geographical areas: “The clouds tend to drop most of their moisture on the southern slopes of the Mahabharat Range, so there is less rain on the other side.”&nbsp; Dharan, for instance, gets 1,700mm of rain, but 15km to the north in Mulghat, the annual precipitation is half that.&nbsp; Elderly farmers can recite from memory the years in which rains have failed: 1961, 1965, 1972, 1975, 1982, 1994. Their recollections tally with archival precipitation data for the region. For example, there was a downpour that dumped 385mm of rain on 23-24 June 1961, but for the next two months there was only 180mm. “I was young in 1961 and there was always either too much rain or too little, the fields were fallow and we had no food,” remembers Dikura Devi Thapaliya in Terathum. “Only those who had springs and could irrigate their fields had harvests that year.”&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/first-drought-then-downpour">First drought, then downpour</a>, Smita Magar Four years later, there was another drought that caused a famine, forcing families to forage for wild roots. In Iwa, the town council asked households that had extra grain to sell it to neighbours, but no one was willing. The villagers did not have food for the 10-day trek down to Dharan to collect government rations, so food was air dropped by the state.&nbsp; Even worse was the nationwide drought of 1972, when the British Royal Air Force helped Nepal with Hercules aircraft to drop grain by parachute in what it called Operation Khana Cascade. Some 52 tons were dropped on Taplejung and Terathum alone.&nbsp; This was the Panchayat era, and even the usually-understated government controlled news agency, RSS, filed a report from eastern Nepal about the terrible conditions: ‘The harvest of corn and buckwheat has failed in villages around Dhankuta. Rice harvests are one-third of normal. There is starvation in Terathum. Many have migrated to the Tarai or elsewhere, or are working as coolies along the Dharan-Dhankuta road.’ <div class="embed-block"><iframe title="The Rain in Dhankuta" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-gKSl5" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/gKSl5/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="423" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script></div> The next serious drought was in 1982, with Terathum getting a record low of only 254mm of rain – only 38% of normal monsoon precipitation.&nbsp; The Tamor had never been so dry before that, nor has it since. Hydrological data acquired by Nepali Times show that in September 1982 river flow was only 15% of mean for that month. Ninety percent of the maize crop in the east was destroyed, paddy wilted before it could be transplanted. The rice terraces were barren.&nbsp; Nepal’s two neighbours donated grain so that villagers would not starve. More than 2,500 farmers from Terathum made the four-day trek down to Dhankuta to collect 100kg sacks of wheat from India, or maize from China. Even the desert kingdom of Saudi Arabia donated 5,000 tons of rice and 2,500 tons of wheat.&nbsp; Not much has changed in the villages of Terathum and along the banks of the Tamor since – except that there are fewer people. Farmers who remain still depend on timely and adequate rain to keep their soil watered.&nbsp; “If the gods send rain, we get to eat. Otherwise we starve,” Naramaya Tamang in Terathum puts it simply. Her farm grows enough food to feed the family for only half the year.&nbsp; Those who have property have sold it to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/unthinkable-in-the-current-climate">move to the plains</a>. The government has stopped food aid, citing new roads and letting market forces ensure supply. However, there are many like Naramaya who have fallen through the social safety net. The other thing that has changed in these mountains is that people are migrating not just to the plains, but overseas to the Gulf or Malaysia. The villages on both sides of the Tamor River are devoid of young men, and increasingly, young women. Every family has a member abroad. It is the money they send back that helps the elderly relatives survive.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240406020436_9619e4536523960ebe2edf86de43c389ba054b3dd32c5752e5bcc7d9fac9d83f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_15" data-image-id="20240406020436_9619e4536523960ebe2edf86de43c389ba054b3dd32c5752e5bcc7d9fac9d83f" data-rendition-name="original" width="640" height="713" loading="lazy" alt="Climate → crisis → drought → food → deficit → migration"> </figure>  Over the last 20 years, Panchthar saw the second highest number of permits to work overseas in proportion to the district’s population. Terathum ranks third on this metric and Dhankuta is sixth. The adjoining district to the west, Khotang, is number one.&nbsp; Dhanusha in the Tarai has the highest numbers of people migrating out, but most of those workers return. Here in Dhankuta, Terathum, Panchthar and Taplejung, when young people leave, most leave for good.&nbsp; The main result of the climate breakdown is the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/borderlines/grain-drain">lack of water</a>. Deficient rain and springs going dry are the main reasons why farmers are migrating, explains the Chair of Ward 3 of Chaubise village, Madan Tumsa.&nbsp; He says: “These are climate migrants. The soil is too dry to farm, and there is nothing to eat. People are not leaving to earn more, up to 80% are leaving because they cannot grow food due to the lack of water.”&nbsp; Research for this three-part series was supported by the Barbara Foundation. This is the first of a three-part series in Nepali Times analysing meteorological, hydrological and demographic data from eastern Nepal, showing the impact of the climate crisis on rainfall, farming and outmigration. The second and third installments will appear on 12 and 26 April respectively.

Climate crisis → drought → food deficit → migration

In December, forecasters predicted that Nepal would receive more rain than the three decade average rainfall this winter. We are halfway through winter, and many parts of the country have not received a single drop of rain for four months. Terrace fields in the mountains are dry, and in the plains winter wheat is drying up. Many Himalayan mountains are naked and snowless.&nbsp; “Mukut Himal and many mountains are just bare rock when they should be white with new snow this time of year,” says Madan Sigdel of Tribhuvan University who returned from Upper Dolpo district last week. Nepal receives an average of 60mm of rain during the three coldest months. However, the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology has recorded just 1.9mm of rain so far this winter. So far, at least, the forecasters have been dead wrong. The 2023-24 winter is turning out to be driest in recent years.&nbsp; Bibhuti Pokharel of the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology says that it is too early to declare his office’s weather models wrong. He adds, “Ours was a long-term forecast, it may not have rained yet, but it might rain more than the average during the remaining one-and-a-half months of winter.”&nbsp; Indeed, extreme weather events induced by the climate crisis may not see a change in seasonal precipitation totals, but the rain or snow may fall all at once with destructive force.&nbsp; Winter weather systems in Nepal are dominated by westerly fronts riding the jetstream that travel all the way from the Mediterranean, passing through Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan. However, in recent years, the moisture is mostly spent by the time the westerlies reach Nepal.&nbsp; “Studies have shown that the increase in sea surface temperature in the Mediterranean has made the whole region warmer and drier,” explains Binod Pokharel, another hydrology and meteorology professor at Tribhuvan University. “This has meant that the winter wind from the west carries less moisture.” Climate is also greatly influenced by the El Niño and La Niña systems that develop in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño occurs when there are above-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean while cooling of the ocean there triggers the La Niña. The two events occur every two to seven years, on average.&nbsp; During the La Niña phenomenon, cooler sea surface temperatures in the Pacific change wind patterns, disrupting the westerlies and leading to less rainfall. Last winter the La Niña system was active when there was no rainfall in Nepal.&nbsp; However, the El Niño system replaced La Niña during the first half of 2023, and the Department of Meteorology has estimated that the El Niño system in the Pacific Ocean will persist right through this winter. Nepal has previously had more rain than average when the El Niño system was active. An active El Niño system means there will be more than average rainfall, confirms Sudarshan Humagain of the Meteorology Department. “However, it must be noted that in some years, there has been less than average rain when El Niño is active,” he adds.&nbsp; What this means is that with climate change, weather patterns have become so unpredictable that most long-term forecasts tend to be inaccurate. &nbsp; Indeed, even with an active El Niño, winter rain-bearing westerlies have not been as active as before in Nepal. Periods without rainfall are classified as drought when the total rainfall is less than 75% of the annual average. The trend so far indicates that Nepal is heading for another winter drought, with a significant part of the country not having had rainfall since October.&nbsp; Last year's winter was similarly dry with just 12.9mm of rain, the lowest precipitation recorded in the last 15 years.&nbsp; Data shows that 12 out of the last 18 winters had less than average rainfall, and eight out of those 12 winters had droughts. The trend is that winter rainfall is pushed towards the end of the season, and then it falls all at once.&nbsp; About 80% of the annual rainfall in Nepal occurs during the monsoon months from June to September, and winter generally sees only up to 4% of average yearly rain. “This means that two or three instances of heavy rain are normal for winter months,” says Humagain of the Meteorology Department.&nbsp; The 2023 Synthesis Report by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) pointed out that Asia would experience the effects of extreme rainfall variability and drought in the short term as well as long term. The report also noted that winter temperatures are going up across South Asia and 2023 was the hottest year on record.&nbsp; “It is certain that winter rainfall is declining while winter temperatures are increasing,” explains Professor Pokharel at Tribhuvan University. “Globally, there has been a trend towards more intense rainfall in the monsoon and falling winter precipitation, and this trend could be the norm in coming years.&nbsp; The lack of winter rain and the fact that it is still too early for the winter thaw means that Nepal’s rivers are all running low. This means the country’s total hydropower generation capacity has dropped by 20%, and the shortfall has to be met by power imports from India. At present, Nepal consumes 1,305MW of electricity on average per day, and nearly one-fourth of it is being imported from India this winter. The figure is higher for morning and evening peak hours. “Power generation has declined drastically, and is expected to go down further as chances of rainfall look slim,” says Prakash Chandra Dulal of the Independent Power Producers' Association, Nepal (IPPAN) “The output of private sector projects usually drops by to 25-28% in winter.” The reason is that all private power plants are run of the river type and not reservoirs that would store monsoon rainfall. Nepal has only one reservoir project, Kulekhani which was built in 1984. The second one is finally under construction on the Seti River in Tanahu.&nbsp; Generating more electricity in winter is more profitable to hydropower producers because the state-run utility Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) &nbsp;buys the power for almost twice the price per unit in winter compared to the monsoon standard rate.&nbsp; “The lack of rainfall and decreased river flow costs us around Rs4 million per megawatt,” says Sura Prasad Adhikari of Barahi Hydro Limited.&nbsp; Even with imports from India, Nepal’s industries are suffering from power cuts.&nbsp; Farmers across Nepal also rely on winter rain more than they do on irrigation systems. Ravi Kiran Adhikari of the Department of Agriculture says that the production of wheat, barley, mustard, lentils, citrus and vegetables is significantly reduced because of winter drought. “There is still time for the crops to revive if it rains during the remaining months of the winter,” says Adhikari, “But if there is no rain, then our crop output will be seriously affected.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240117130136_7ef5843b015cb7ae360afa5c77bcec1c0b085c0fcc5bb9d121bb38b2877ffa4a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20240117130136_7ef5843b015cb7ae360afa5c77bcec1c0b085c0fcc5bb9d121bb38b2877ffa4a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1744" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Winter drought NT"> <figcaption>A NASA FIRMS image of wildfires burning in Nepal in the past week. Each dot represents a major fire detected by infrared sensors on the satellite. The picture also shows dense fog blanketing the Indian plains and the Tarai.</figcaption> </figure>  Meanwhile, lack of rain in winter increases the chance of wildfire as happened in the winter of 2021-22 when the Air Quality Index in Kathmandu soared to record-breaking 700.&nbsp; As it is, air pollution in Nepal gets worse during winter months in the Tarai and Kathmandu because of temperature inversion and industrial pollutants from north India.&nbsp; This year’s winter drought is already sparking wildfires, with 48 major fires detected by the NASA FIRMS satellite in the past week.

Nepal suffers another winter drought

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161156/636d1f2c9c7e80680e0af44fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2400" height="1802"/><figcaption>Manang. Photo: NABIN LAMICHHANE.</figcaption></figure>Kathmandu Valley and the surrounding areas experienced rains from Tuesday night with moderate snowfall in Chandragiri and Pulchoki in the outskirts.Heavier snow has blanketed the mountainous districts of Dadeldhura, Doti, Baitadi, Bajhang and Darchula, as well as trans-himalayan Dolpo, Manang and Mustang, while vehicular movements in different sections of the Tribhuvan, Bhimdatta and Jayaprithvi highways have been obstructed by snowfall.The Department of Meteorology and Hydrology has predicted rain into Wednesday morning.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161156/636d1f309c7e80680e0af450jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2400" height="1600"><figcaption>Myagdi. Photo: SONTOSH GAUTAM.</figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161156/636d1f339c7e80680e0af451jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="854" height="481"><figcaption>Lukla. Photo: RAJENDRA B. SINGH.</figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161156/636d1f359c7e80680e0af452jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="816" height="612"><figcaption>Bhojpur. Photo: YUVRAJ BISTA.</figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161156/636d1f379c7e80680e0af453jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1353" height="902"><figcaption>Bhaktapur. Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI.</figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161156/636d1f3b9c7e80680e0af454jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1304" height="870"><figcaption>Bhaktapur. Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI.</figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161156/636d1f3e9c7e80680e0af455jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2400" height="1107"><figcaption>Chandragiri. Photo: ACHYUT REGMI.</figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161156/636d1f419c7e80680e0af456jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2400" height="1350"><figcaption>Doti. Photo: BIMAL BAHADUR BISTA.</figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161156/636d1f449c7e80680e0af457jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2400" height="1350"><figcaption>Doti. Photo: BIMAL BAHADUR BISTA.</figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161156/636d1f479c7e80680e0af458jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="800" height="450"><figcaption>Simkot. Photo: DANE BOHARA.</figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161156/636d1f499c7e80680e0af459jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2400" height="1350"><figcaption>Humla. Photo: DANE BOHARA.</figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161156/636d1f4d9c7e80680e0af45ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2400" height="1834"><figcaption>Jajarkot. Photo: HEMANTA KC.</figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161156/636d1f509c7e80680e0af45bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="454"><figcaption>Rasuwa. Photo: HIMNATH DEVKOTA.</figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161156/636d1f539c7e80680e0af45cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2400" height="2112"><figcaption>Jajarkot. Photo: HEMANTA KC.</figcaption></figure>

Nepal lashed by winter rain and snow

<figure><img width="3071" height="2284" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d195f9c7e80680e0ac817jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Chanaute after the flood on the Melamchi River in 2021. All photos: RAJU PANDIT CHHETRI</figcaption></figure>On 15 June, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/monsoon-hits-nepal-with-a-bang/">Melamchi River north of Kathmandu</a> saw a massive flash flood, killing 25 people and sweeping away 200 houses and 360 hectares of farmlands.Another debris flow on the river on 31 July added to the destruction and misery. The disaster was <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-monsoon-mess-in-melamchi/">unprecedented in the Melamchi Valley</a>, and caught residents, trout farms, shops along the banks by surprise. Before the communities got a chance to fully rise from the massive double-earthquake in 2015, the region was hit yet again with another disaster.As a resident of the Chanaute, I lost close relatives and neighbours to the flood. My own house and farmland were destroyed. The river sliced through the bazar town, and its 56 houses are now ruined and abandoned. The hopes of my hard-working community have also been dashed.Local entrepreneurs, small shop owners and farmers whose arable land have turned into a boulder-strewn wasteland are shattered. Damage to roads and bridges hascut the valley’s connection to the outside world. Nepal’s most expensive water supply project has been damaged. <figure><img width="1024" height="768" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d19639c7e80680e0ac818jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Any individual extreme weather event is difficult to directly attribute to the climate crisis. But the intensity and unpredictability of this year’s monsoon has been unprecedented. Manang and Mustang were hit by flash floods at the same time as Melamchi – even before the monsoon officially started. And even after the rainy season was formally over last week, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/post-monsoon-rain-ruins-nepals-crops/">parts of the country were hit by record-breaking rainfall.</a>For the past decade, my career has taken me to numerous international climate summits where we have discussed strong national and international advocacy to address the impact of the climate crisis – especially on developing countries like Nepal.At international climate negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), I have observed climate-vulnerable countries make urgent pleas for ambitious action in tackling the climate crisis. Small, low-lying island states like the Vanuatu, Tuvalu and the Maldives have tried to show the urgency of it all – rising ocean levels will soon submerge their countries.The Philippines and Bangladesh continue to raise concern about the increasing intensity and frequency of typhoons and cyclones. Fragile mountain regions of the world are trying to get their concerns on the agenda.Next week, heads of state from around the world will start arriving in Glasgow for the 26th annual climate summit of the UNFCCC (called COP26). Recent impacts of extreme weather events around the world (wildfires in Siberia and the western US, heat waves in Canada, floods in Europe, landslides and floods in Japan, India, China) are likely to focus everyone’s mind on the climate emergency, and the message that we are all in this together. <figure><img width="1500" height="1125" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d19669c7e80680e0ac819jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to climate impacts to avert and minimise some of the loss and damage will be at the forefront of the negotiations.  However, as the incoming president of COP26, the United Kingdom and the leaders of the industrialised world will have to face a new reality – to address the destruction unleashed by the climate crisis with rehabilitation, migration and financing.Industrialised countries have long brushed aside these issues, diluted their commitments to merely focusing on the weaker goal of reducing greenhouse gas emission, and providing token climate financing to allow low-income countries to adapt.In fact, addressing the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/disasters-in-nepal-come-in-waves/">loss and damage from disasters</a> like the one that hit Melamchi and parts of the Himalaya will be one of the main pillars of the COP26 in Glasgow. Nepal’s delegation will be led by Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, and he is expected to speak about this year’s climate-induced disasters starting with <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/wildfires-ravage-nepal-mountains/">winter drought</a>, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-is-going-up-in-smoke/">nationwide wildfires</a>, and floods.Nepal will have strong moral grounds to persuade world leaders that low capacity vulnerable countries need help to deal with a crisis that is not of our making. Himalayan glaciers are shrinking and receding fast, extreme weather trends are more pronounced, and this is impacting on infrastructure projects and threaten to undermine decades of progress in achieving the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. <figure><img width="4000" height="3000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d19699c7e80680e0ac81ajpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-glacial-lakes-in-danger-of-bursting/">A 2020 study by ICIMOD and UNDP</a> has shown that 47 glacial lakes in the Kosi, Gandaki and Karnali basins are in danger of bursting. Although 21 of these lakes are in Nepal, the others also drain into tributaries of rivers flowing into Nepal. These are ticking time bombs.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-change-is-a-disaster-in-the-nepal-himalaya/">Glacial lake outburst floods</a> have been hitting Nepal’s Himalayan valleys with increasing frequency. In 2012, an <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Anatom-of-a-Himalayan-tsunami,1330">avalanche on Annapurna</a> unleashed a catastrophic flood on the Seti River that killed at least 70 people. In <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/kundadixit/2014/10/16/after-the-storm/">2014, a deadly post-monsoon blizzard</a> spawned by Cyclone Hudhud swept through the mountains catching many trekkers unawares. The Tarai have seen increasingly destructive floods in the past five years, and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/disastrous-management-in-nepal/">Bara district was hit by a rare tornado in 2019</a> that killed dozens.In Glasgow, Nepal will have to make a compelling case for <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/himalayan-floods-a-sign-of-worse-to-come/">loss and damage compensation</a> for disasters like these. COP26 will be a make-or-break summit for reducing global carbon emissions by 45% by 2030. Nepal will also need to do its bit to achieve its updated Nationally Determined Contribution target to reduce emissions by 2030 by switching to renewable energy, and attain net zero by 2050.Glasgow will be an opportunity to link global targets to local impact, and to find ways to address the disproportionate destruction caused by climate crisis on the poorer parts of the poorest countries.Raju Pandit Chhetri is a resident of Chanaute in Nepal’s Melamchi Valley and works on climate change issues.

Think globally in Glasgow, and act locally

<figure><img width="3000" height="1405" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d18f59c7e80680e0ac7f3jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photos: RSS</figcaption></figure>Still reeling from a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/after-the-deluge-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">disastrous monsoon season</a>, Nepal has been hit with unseasonal downpours that have dumped more rain on rice crops that were ready for harvest across the country.. More than 100mm of rain fell in 24 hours in most parts of western Nepal, which has been the worst affected so far as a late-monsoon depression from the Bay of Bengal was swept into the Himalaya by a westerly system.The Indian state of Uttarakhand and Nepal’s Far-Western Province on either side of the Mahakali River have been badly affected by floods, landslides and submerged rice fields.The border Mahakali River reached record-high levels on Tuesday, destroying roads and bridges. More than 24 people are feared dead in a village in Bajhang hit by a landslide. Another andslide killed two children Dharan. <figure><img width="432" height="324" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d18f79c7e80680e0ac7f4jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure><figure><img width="1800" height="1350" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d18fa9c7e80680e0ac7f5jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure><figure><img width="1134" height="629" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d18fe9c7e80680e0ac7f6jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>Nepal received 15% more rain than average this monsoon, which officially ended two weeks ago, according to the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology. The increased precipitation, including in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/himalayan-floods-a-sign-of-worse-to-come/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Manang valley</a> in Nepal’s rain shadow brought with it flashfloods that caused major damage in seven hydropower plants, and Nepal’s most expensive project for supplying water to Kathmandu <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/still-chasing-the-melamchi-mirage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Melamchi Water Supply</a>.Except in the landslide-hit areas, farmers across Nepal had been encouraged by a healthy monsoon and were looking forward to a bumper rice harvest. Early reports said standing crops were submerged, and harvested rice stalks were destroyed right across Nepal.Many roads in the country have been blocked due to floods from the continuous rain, including the Butwal-Bardaghat section of the East-West Highway. Water levels in the Mahakali, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-karnali/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Karnali</a> and Seti rivers in western Nepal have risen to dangerous levels, putting riverside settlements at risk, with many villages on the banks inundated. <figure><img width="3600" height="1667" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d19019c7e80680e0ac7f7jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure><figure><img width="3092" height="2061" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d19069c7e80680e0ac7f8jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>Two hundred houses in the Bhimdatta and Dodhara Chandani municipalities near the Indian border in Far-Western Province are reported to have been flooded.According to the Department of Water and Meteorology, 196 out of 225 rainfall measurement centers in the country have recorded heavy rain in the past few days.Senior meteorologist of the Department, Pratibha Manandhar explains: “The low-pressure systems in central India and the Bay of Bengal moving north and the westerly winds becoming active is the reason we are experiencing such heavy rainfall so late in the season.”Generally, anything more than 100mm of rain within 24 hours is considered to be extreme precipitation. In the Far-western Province, Dadeldhura has already recorded 211mm of rainfall in the past 24 hours, Dipayal received 166mm in a sustained cloudburst, Ghorahi got 133mm, and Bhairawa 112mm. (see map, below) In Nepal, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/a-disaster-resilient-nepal-is-possible/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">monsoon rains</a> usually stop by the end of September, as the prevailing winds switch direction to blow in from the west. Climate experts are surprised by just how erratic this year’s monsoon has been.  <figure><img width="1128" height="578" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d190a9c7e80680e0ac7f9jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Total rainfall between 8:45 AM 18 October to 8:45AM 19 October in various parts of Nepal. Red areas show highest precipitation in western Nepal. Source: DEPARTMENT OF HYDROLOGY AND METEROLOGY</figcaption></figure>Water expert Madhukar Upadhya writes on his Twitter account: ‘As soon as we were saying that monsoon has ended, I find it surprising to see such high levels of rain, even capable of causing loss of life and property.’However, Manandhar from the Department of Water and Meteorology says that this kind of post-monsoon period is not unprecedented. She says: “There are weather variations from year to year, so it is not surprising to see rains so late into the season. Usually we get post-monsoon rains when the monsoon itself has heavy precipitation.”  The Department predicts more rain till Wednesday evening especially in Lumbini, Karnali, the Far Western Province, and in many places in Province 1, and gradually diminishing by the end of the week as the westerlies hold sway. However, a few places are still expected to see thunderstorms, strong winds, and heavy rainfall.This untimely rain has severely impacted on the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-rise-of-rice-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">country’s rice harvest</a>. Madhav Prasad Poudel from the Department of Agriculture, says, “Unseasonal rain like this affects both standing crops and also those that have been cut and are left in the fields to dry. The water makes even the straw rot.”   <figure><img width="1500" height="1015" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d190d9c7e80680e0ac7fajpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Satellite radar image taken on Tuesday at noon of heavy precipitation over northern India and Nepal. The westerlies are now pushing the system to the west, and the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology says the rains will taper off by Wednesday afternoon.</figcaption></figure>Although the Met Department forecast rain, the information did not reach farmers. Poudel adds that the rain has affected the paddy harvest adversely, but the exact damage has not yet been determined. Sitaram Chaudhary, a farmer from Dhangadi, said that the floods have severely affected the quality of paddy, rice, and straw and even vegetable farms. The government had been predicting records harvests of rice this year because of the favorable monsoon, but this week’s deluge may affect those hopes. This also puts tens of thousands of farmers at the risk of food insecurity. However, agriculturist <a href="https://www.facebook.com/rajendra.uprety" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Rajendra Uprety at the Ministry of Agriculture of Province 1 </a>says the damage from rains may have been exaggerated, and Nepali farmers are used to dealing with heavy rains and high winds affecting ready to harvest rice crops.  "Of course, there has been damage, but there are ways to salvage rice stalks even from submerged fields," he says, "wet stalks need to be kept in a dry place, the paddy fields need to be drained, and the still standing crop should be harvested only after the rains stop. And we should all be helping each other instead of spreading alarmist information." Rice is grown in over 1.4 million hectares in Nepal. Last year, the country produced over 5 million metric tons of paddy, but <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/are-nepalis-really-eating-more-rice/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">still imported about Rs51 billion worth of rice</a> to meet growing demand. With this week’s late monsoon floods and unexpected rain, the 2021 harvest is most likely to be below target.

Post-monsoon rain ruins Nepal’s crops

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121144/636b93019c7e80680e06f180jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1502" height="1000"/><figcaption>Mahendra Shrestha, 61, of Melamchi Bazar breaks down as he surveys the damage to his house on Wednesday. Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>Nepal sits upon a pyramid of problems: poverty, inequality, exclusion, domestic violence, social injustice, l<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-epidemic-of-hunger/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">ack of food</a> ... the list is long.On top of all that, for more than a year now, Nepalis have struggled with the health and economic emergency set off by the pandemic. And this week, we suffered floods that killed at least 25 — mostly in the same areas affected by the 2015 earthquakes.Meanwhile, Nepal’s predominantly rain-fed agriculture is affected by extreme weather events exacerbated by the climate crisis. Nepal had the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-is-going-up-in-smoke/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-is-going-up-in-smoke/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624001295575000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG7snQxuyb8ljJ-v8_vj85fB3rJtg">worst wildfire season</a> in living memory this spring. Right across the Himalayan foothills, the mountains burned from November till March – and at its peak there were nearly 2,000 fires raging out of control.The scorched earth barely had time to regenerate when <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/monsoon-hits-nepal-with-a-bang/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/monsoon-hits-nepal-with-a-bang/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624001295575000&amp;usg=AFQjCNF6XySMZiv3mcpFc2sspLEcF7C1MQ">the monsoon arrived this week with a bang</a>. A low-pressure system lingered over Central Nepal 13-16 June, dumping record precipitation, much of it in the trans-Himalayan region which is supposed to be in the rain-shadow. The denuded slopes could not hold the water, and the runoff surged into rivers washing away homes, bridges, roads and hydropower plants.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121144/636b93049c7e80680e06f181jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1174" height="770"><figcaption></figcaption></figure>Disasters are of two kinds: ‘natural’ calamities that hit without warning, and slow-moving ones that worsen incrementally. Earthquakes, floods and landslides get all the media attention — especially if there are good social media visuals. News, by definition, has to be unexpected, preferably sudden and with lots of casualties in one place.Journalism is less prepared to cover lingering crises, where thousands die over time, silently and scattered across remote areas of the country. The fact that half the country’s children suffer some form of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/hunger-for-governance/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">malnutrition is a disaster</a>  So are the high maternal and neonatal mortality rates. These are silent emergencies.We chronicle the daily Covid-19 death toll, but there are no headlines that say dozens of children died yesterday all over Nepal due to preventable causes. There is no one doing that daily tally, and announcing it in a press briefing.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121144/636b93079c7e80680e06f182jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2244" height="1122"><figcaption>Aerial view of the Melamchi Water Supply Project headworks is covered in mud after Tuesday's flashflood. Eight staff, including Indian and Chinese nationals are missing. Photo: SHER BAHADUR TAMANG</figcaption></figure><a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/dont-just-blame-god-for-floods-and-landslides/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/dont-just-blame-god-for-floods-and-landslides/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624001295575000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHKPr6SuzZQataATHZkSSug0XBLuA">Natural disasters are not natural</a>. Floods by themselves do not ‘wreak havoc’, they do so when houses are allowed to be built along floodplains. This week’s floods in Manang, Mustang, Kaski, Sindhupalchok were not unexpected. The intensity of rain may have been beyond our control, but preparing for a flood in a high-risk zone should have been.<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/sindhupalchok-losing-hope%20,2224" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/sindhupalchok-losing-hope%2520,2224&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624001295575000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE3Asf_cnEe616L_p7i6YacCKXJnA">Sindhupalchok</a> was hit by both the 25 April and 12 May <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/being-prepared-for-monsoon-and-outbreaks,2293" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/being-prepared-for-monsoon-and-outbreaks,2293&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624001295575000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGldHe3LcBfv9vWQUhfUXZhfPWjmQ">earthquakes in 2015, </a>which caused massive landslides. Haphazard road-building on fragile slopes increased the danger, and one of these landslides blocked the Melamchi about 3 km upstream from the headworks of the water supply project. A similar slope failure dammed the Indrawati.When it burst, the Melamchi Khola swept into the water supply project camp, and eight people including six Indian and Chinese and two Nepali workers are missing. Downstream, two more bodies have been found and 17 are more unsccounted for. Luckily, the 26.5km tunnel bringing water to Kathmandu from Melamchi had been closed a few hours before for inspection, and this saved the project from major damage.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121144/636b930a9c7e80680e06f183jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2110" height="1388"><figcaption>The Melamchi Khola was dammed by a landslide 3km upstream from the tunnel intake. Photo: SHER BAHADUR TAMANG</figcaption></figure>The torrent of liquid mud on both rivers arrived simultaneously at their confluence in Melamchi Bazar. Geographer Narendra Khanal has traced the Indrawati River blockage to a point 20km upstream. The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology monitoring station shows the Indrawati flowing at 4.7m at 4OM on 15 June, decreasing to 3m, and then shooting up to 6m at 6:45PM.“This is an indication that the river was blocked upstream in an area with major landslides after the 2015 earthquake, and suddenly the water broke through,” Khanal explains.T<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-valley-suffers-quadruple-disaster/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-valley-suffers-quadruple-disaster/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624001295575000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHl03Z5EnJptFLNkk3GSzcew1FCVw">he river overflowed into Melamchi Bazar</a> at high velocity because much of the sand and boulders that would have slowed it down had been mined by construction contractors.He says none of the glacial lakes in the Jugal Himal appear to have burst. Although this was fortunate, it also shows how much more catastrophic future floods can be if <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/danger-nepals-glacial-lakes-are-filling-up/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/danger-nepals-glacial-lakes-are-filling-up/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624001295575000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGpEfjfrRnTUfi0zqzCpVxtkmmU-A">expanding Himalayan lakes formed by global warming burst</a>.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121144/636b930c9c7e80680e06f184jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1440" height="1074"><figcaption>Google Map showing the Melamchi and Indrawati Rivers and the location of landslide dams. Illustration: NARENDRA KHANAL</figcaption></figure>The reason for the loss of property was not the flood itself, but unplanned construction on the floodplain. Luckily, Ward 11 Chair Rudra Dulal in Melamchi Bazar had advance information about the incoming flood and moved 100 families out of harm's way after informing police to begin evacuation.“We received an early warning and we mobilised our team, informed everyone. This is the only reason why we didn’t have any casualties in our community,” Dulal says.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121144/636b93109c7e80680e06f185jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1686" height="656"><figcaption>Measurements on the Indrawati on the evening of 15 June showed how the water level dropped and rose suddenly, indicating that the river was dammed upstream. Graph: DoHM</figcaption></figure>Elsewhere, at least 12 under-construction hydropower plants have been badly damaged. The worst hit was a 44MW project nearing completion on the Madi Khola in Kaski. The powerhouse and headworks were hit, while 15 excavators, tipper trucks and other vehicles washed away. Other functioning private and government hydropower plants in Central Nepal have either been shutdown as a precaution, or have been damaged.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-braces-for-monsoon-pandemic-double-hit/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-braces-for-monsoon-pandemic-double-hit/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624001295575000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE1lKvl7D25KSM42Af5nLcpa0I1MQ">None of this was unexpected.</a> Anil Pokhrel of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA) had warned last week that weather modellers had predicted that this year’s monsoon would be above average in Nepal. What could not be forecast was how much more rain there would be, and which districts would be most vulnerable.Indeed, areas of the Himalayan rain shadow which usually lie north of the mountains and receive scanty rainfall, were also bad affected after continuous rain for 24 hours from Monday till Tuesday afternoon.Pokhrel of the NDRRMA had <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/a-disaster-resilient-nepal-is-possible/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/a-disaster-resilient-nepal-is-possible/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624001295575000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGXs55ZclYXxCduK6EEyQl0Crdbfw">written in Nepali Times</a> last week: “<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/wildfires-ravage-nepal-mountains/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/wildfires-ravage-nepal-mountains/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624001295575000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFbSPEJs2UX-K7QIAOTig451h4l5A">Wildfires that raged for months</a> burnt through forest-shrub cover, undermining the ability of mountain slopes to absorb rainfall and prevent soil erosion. This could potentially result in more landslides and floods.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121144/636b93129c7e80680e06f186jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2081" height="1260"><figcaption>Weather modelling by the South Asia Climate Outlook Forum last month showed that the 2021 monsoon would be above normal in most parts of Nepal. Source: NDRRMA</figcaption></figure>Last year was <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624001295575000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEDVMmcO2dZ90k97FCI0k-ydO2hNw">the worst monsoon season</a> in the past two decades in terms of casualties: there were 500 major landslides, nearly 300 killed and 70 missing. Most of the landslides were, again, in Sindhupalchok and were blamed on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-deadliest-monsoon-in-recent-times/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-deadliest-monsoon-in-recent-times/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624001295575000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH4Q6nXwNjQTaXeXHnXeFPJ9JHJfw">poor and unregulated road construction </a>that disturbed the slopes.A cyclonic circulation over northern India means the rains have continued along the Himalayan foothills, and it is forecast to continue through the weekend. In Melamchi Bazar, there was fresh warning of inundation and people were evacuated on Thursday afternoon.As the monsoon progresses, much of the flood action will shift to the Tarai. There, too, this year the floods will 'wreak havoc'. And again, the submergence will largely be due to constriction of rivers by embankments, settlements along flood plains, perimeter walls that act as dams, and the denudation and destruction of the Chure Range.There was a flood of recrimination last year, many <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/in-nepal-either-too-much-or-too-little-water/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/in-nepal-either-too-much-or-too-little-water/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624001295575000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFQI0_rIuaafLfQ4j-eHmMPV_JmRg">commentators lamented the lack of oversight. </a>But there has been no let-up in destructive road-building. This week, Nepal’s seven provinces passed budgets in which most of their revenue is going to be derived from quarry and sand-mining contractors allowed to unsustainably exploit natural resources. The government has allowed river valleys and the fragile Chure <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-nature-of-pandemics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">to be mined for stone exports to India</a>.With politicians distracted by one upmanship, and federalism not functioning because of micro-management by parties in Kathmandu, this season of disasters will be talked about for a while. Until next year’s monsoon.

Disasters in Nepal come in waves

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b920e9c7e80680e06f127jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1050" height="701"/><figcaption>Photo: MANISH PAUDEL/NEPALI TIMES ARCHIVE</figcaption></figure>The 2020 southwest monsoon was forecast to be 'normal' in Nepal, but it turned out to be more intense than predicted, and lasted much longer.Last year saw deadly landslides and floods across the country, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">killing at least 400 people</a>, with Sindhupalchok, Baglung, Myagdi, Jajarkot, Kalikot and Bajura districts bearing the brunt of the disasters. Entire villages were buried and debris flows swept away rocks, trees, bridges and houses.We are now bracing up for the 2021 monsoon season, and it is predicted to be <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-braces-for-monsoon-pandemic-double-hit/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">much more intense than last year</a>. The South Asian Climate Outlook Forum has forecast that this year's monsoon precipitation will be 'above normal' almost throughout the country.This year's monsoon comes after the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-is-going-up-in-smoke/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">worst wildfire season ever</a>, and it could make this year’s monsoon even more destructive. Wildfires that raged for months burnt through forest-shrub cover, undermining the ability of mountain slopes to absorb rainfall and prevent soil erosion. This could potentially result in more landslides and floods.Then there is also the Covid-19 pandemic, that is now <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/in-nepal-virus-climbs-from-plains-to-mountains/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">raging across the hinterland</a>, and has further compounded the challenges in responding to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/in-nepal-either-too-much-or-too-little-water/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">monsoon-induced disasters</a>. Many local first responders have fallen sick during the second wave of the coronavirus, and those who are fit enough to conduct rescue and relief will find it difficult to maintain safe distance.Given all these considerations, it would be naive to hope that everything will be all right in the next few months, but the slopes are already saturated by pre-monsoon rains and this does not bode well.Here at the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA) we are committed to reducing losses in lives and livelihoods by:<ul><li>Preparing joint response during the pandemic to landslides, floods and water borne diseases with federal, provincial, local governments including District Disaster Management Committees for swift rescue and relief operations.</li> <li>Closely working with the Nepal Army, the Armed Police Force, Nepal Police, community groups, non-profits, development partners and the private sector.</li> <li>Improving Early Warning System and communicating disaster risks in more effective ways.</li> <li>Prepositioning search and rescue equipment including relief items.</li></ul>While preparing for this year's monsoon, we have also begun to look beyond 2021. With the right policies and actions, we can achieve our target of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/disastrous-management-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">substantial reduction of disaster risk</a> and loss of lives and livelihoods by 2030. It may sound ambitious, but we have a vision to pull it off in sync with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015-2030).<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b920f9c7e80680e06f128jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2081" height="1260"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Through this year's budget program, the government has unveiled a 10-year campaign to build Suraksit Nepal -- a disaster resilient Nepal which will fast track actions to ensure safety in not just future earthquakes, but other hazards.The 10-year campaign to build a resilient Nepal will use our valuable learning and insights from <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/rebuilding-five-years-after-2015-quake/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">post-earthquake recovery and reconstruction</a>. In the first few years after the 2015 earthquake, Nepal received unfair bad publicity in the international media for sluggish reconstruction, but the National Reconstruction Authority (NRA) quickly made up for lost time to achieve its mandate.The NRA’s completion of post-earthquake recovery despite the 2015-16 border blockade and the 2020-21 lockdowns is a model for other countries. Nepal is planning an international conference next year to share this success story.To wrap up the post-earthquake recovery, the government has allocated the budget to build 14,155 more classrooms, 105 health facilities, 195 <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/learning-from-nepals-past-to-rebuild-its-future/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">cultural monuments</a> and 36 government buildings. Similarly, reconstruction and retrofitting of heritage buildings and completion of 39 integrated settlements also feature prominently in this year's budget.This year’s budget also allocates money for disaster preparedness, search, rescue, relief, and rehabilitation. This includes programs for disaster risk financing, helicopters for aerial firefighting, multi-hazard early warning system, multi-purpose robotic firefighting equipment in all provinces, advanced fire brigade, multi-seater ambulance, rescue vehicles and fire trucks at all local levels.This is the first time Disaster Risk Management has featured so prominently in Nepal's national budget. Disasters are traditionally seen as acts of god in Nepal, this is why there was little will to work on prevention.We now see a paradigm shift in this thinking. We are moving from response more towards <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-villages-learn-to-cope-with-climate-crisis/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">preparedness and risk reduction</a>. Rather than waiting for disasters to happen and spending financial, human and institutional resources on rescue and relief, our new emphasis in this decade is on disaster risk reduction and preparedness for effective response.As part of the 10-year campaign to build a disaster resilient Nepal, we need to plan, design and implement:<ul><li>Multi-hazard risk assessment and mapping</li> <li>Establishment of a national platform to communicate risk information</li> <li>Early warning system using all forms of media for all hazards</li> <li>Disaster risk financing with insurance of private houses and public buildings</li> <li>Integrated settlements for communities at high-risk locations</li> <li>Guidelines and system to reconstruct infrastructure damaged by disasters</li> <li>Revision of the building code to integrate key risks such as floods, fire and lightning and create incentives for implementation</li> <li>Reduction of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood risks</li> <li>Design standards to integrate disaster and climate risks for roads, water supply and irrigation</li> <li>Establishment of Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority at all seven provinces</li> <li>Establishment of Emergency Operation Centers at all seven provinces, 77 districts and key municipalities with high risks</li> <li>Building capacity of provincial and local governments to integrate risk considerations into development planning</li> <li>Restructuring of NDRRMA to include a Training and Research Directorate for disaster risk reduction</li></ul>Successful completion of these tasks will lay the groundwork for the 10-year plan. Its success will not only save lives and livelihoods, but also reduce recurrent economic damage and loss from disasters.Anil Pokhrel is the Chief Executive of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA).

A disaster resilient Nepal is possible

<figure><img width="1800" height="1350" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b91fe9c7e80680e06f121jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>A landslide in Jajarkot last year. Photo: RSS</figcaption></figure>By any measure, the past year has been disastrous for Nepal. The Covid-19 lockdowns devastated the economy, the 2020 monsoon killed a record number of people, and this year the second wave hit with full force even as governance was paralysed by a prolonged power struggle in the ruling party. Now, Nepalis are bracing themselves for their <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/preparing-for-floods-during-a-lockdown/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">second monsoon season during the pandemic</a>, one which meteorological modellers say could dump above normal precipitation over most parts of the country.The other difference with last year is that the second Covid-19 wave is even more virulent and widespread. This means crowded shelters after a flood or landslide will be hotspots for new infections at a time when only 4% of the population is vaccinated.“Covid and floods are contradictory in nature, as one needs physical distancing while the other makes it impossible to do so. This will add to the existing burden,” says epidemiologist Lhamo Yangchen Sherpa.She adds: “We can’t prevent floods, but we can reduce its impact. We must concentrate on identifying risk groups and their emergency evacuation, set up shelters with physical distancing, stockpile tents, food and emergency medicines including oral rehydration salts and water purifiers.”Even though last year’s southwest monsoon was said to be 'normal' in Nepal, it <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">triggered numerous flash floods and landslides</a>, killing at least 400 people and destroying over 1,000 houses. Entire villages in Sindhupalchok, Jajarkot, Myagdi, Baglung, Kalikot and Bajura districts were buried. The South Asian Seasonal Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF) has forecast ‘above normal’ rainfall for most of Nepal this year, with more than usual precipitation in most of the Mahabharat and Himalaya, and slightly deficient rainfall in the eastern Tarai. <figure><img width="2081" height="1260" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b92019c7e80680e06f122jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>"There is a possibility of floods, landslides and other water-related disasters occurring together during the third and fourth week of July this year when the second wave of the pandemic will still be peaking,” states the government’s National Monsoon Preparedness and Response Plan 2021. The probability of flash-floods and landslides are even higher this year because of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-is-going-up-in-smoke/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the wildfires</a>. There were 7,000 fires affecting 75 of Nepal’s 77 districts from November 2020 to May 2021, the highest number ever recorded.  The fires reduced forested slopes to ashes, incinerated the undergrowth, thus reducing the absorptive capacity of the soil. When the rains come, the water will therefore rush down the slopes instead of seeping into the topsoil. “This year’s rainfall is forecast to be higher than last year's average. Based on this analysis, it can be estimated that there will be a significant increase in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/in-nepal-either-too-much-or-too-little-water/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">landslides and floods</a> during this year's monsoon,” says meteorologist Shanti Kandel at the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology. She adds: “Forecasting is preparedness in some ways. But it has to be effectively communicated, so if we are to wait until landslides have occurred to act, it’s too late and there is no point.” <figure><img width="1050" height="701" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b92049c7e80680e06f123jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>In the past, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/disastrous-management-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the government has faced criticism</a> for prioritising relief over prevention. This could change with the formation of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA), which works primarily on preparedness and mitigating risk, while delegating more rescue responsibility to first-responders in local governments.“In earlier years landslides were not discussed as part of our monsoon preparedness plan, only floods were, and this year we set landslides as a priority for preparedness and response also looking at the intersection of wildfires, Covid-19 and the monsoon,” says Anil Pokhrel, who heads NDRRMA that has produced a workplan for monsoon preparedness and response. The NDRRMA with DHM recently trained officials in 36 municipalities in nine of the most high-risk districts (Myagdi, Gorkha, Kalikot, Rasuwa, Sindhupalchok, Bajhang, Jajarkot, Syangja and Dailekh) on Impact Based Forecasting which predicts extreme weather events so that at-risk groups can be ready. “We are dealing not just with floods and landslides this time, but also Covid-19. Local communities are setting up rapid response teams to best prevent an outbreak in shelters and maintain health protocols, and spreading awareness through FM radio in local languages,” says Liladhar Adhikari of the NDRRMA. Despite the ‘above normal’ forecast in the models, climate scientist Ngamindra Dahal expects the monsoon to even out unless Nepal experiences cloudbursts over the Mahabharat and Chure ranges. These sudden heavy showers have been the cause of the deadliest floods and landslides in recent years. “We now have the technology to predict localised cloudbursts through Impact Based Forecasting which is crucial in saving lives, all we need now is real-time action so local communities get advance warning,” says Dahal.But predicting and determining the impact of floods and landslides only from the perspective of weather gives us an incomplete picture. The climate crisis has changed precipitation patterns and made extreme weather events more frequent and destructive. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/dont-just-blame-god-for-floods-and-landslides/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Poorly designed and built roads, bad engineering</a>, and unplanned settlements have disturbed fragile mountain slopes, making them more disaster-prone.“We have in recent times recorded 105mm rain per hour in Surkhet, 100mm in Bajhang and 73 in Kulekhani which is a clear indication that the monsoon is getting more intense, but we are only now trying to understand this trend,” says Dahal. “We need to see whether there are indeed more frequent cloudbursts, or if the disasters are more noticed because they affect new settlements in floodplains and roads that follow river banks.” <figure><img width="1174" height="770" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b92079c7e80680e06f124jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>At the NDRRMA, Liladhar Adhikari agrees that in addition to rapid response and rescue, a new development model is crucial in preventing multiple hazards in the long term. “New infrastructure has to adhere to environmental safeguards so that they do not drastically alter the rural landscape and make them more vulnerable to disasters.”Unfortunately, Nepal’s approach to development has been at the expense of nature preservation. The annual budget announced last week <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-nature-of-pandemics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">will allow quarrying</a> on the already-unstable slopes of Himalayan foothills to export stones and aggregates to India.Epidemiologist Lhamu Yangchen Sherpa has been to several emergency shelters recently, and points out that there is an <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/uneven-pandemic-impact-on-nepali-women/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">additional burden on women during disasters</a>.  She says: “Like before and during this coronavirus crisis, women are especially vulnerable in the aftermath of a disaster, we must support them with security in shelters, physical and mental health care during this monsoon in the middle of a pandemic.”

Sonia Awale

Nepal braces for monsoon-pandemic double hit

Clearing the air

Earlier this month, Nepal received Rs1.6 billion from the World Bank as part of its <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/will-nepal-ever-be-paid-for-saving-trees">Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF)</a>, rewarding the country for increasing its carbon sink capacity. Nepal is the first in South Asia to benefit from this facility, and it is specifically to recompense the country for increasing forest cover in 13 Tarai districts between 2018-2024. “We are also trying to get another Rs13 billion from the facility while also preparing for free market-based carbon trading in the international market,” says Nabaraj Pudasaini of the REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries) Implementation Centre. Big emitters of greenhouse gases are under pressure to reduce their carbon emissions, and many have signed agreements to do so by investing in decarbonisation projects in developing countries. Countries that emit more than a specified amount of carbon would be able to buy emission rights from countries that emit less. Nepal is internationally known for its community forestry program which has been largely credited for <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/tree-mendous">increasing tree cover to over 45%</a> in less than three decades. But this achievement had not been adequately recognised or rewarded internationally before. Forests, especially in the tropics, absorb and store large amounts of carbon while releasing oxygen in a process known as photosynthesis. <a href="https://www.fao.org/forest-resources-assessment/en/">Preventing deforestation</a> and increasing canopy cover is considered a much more achievable goal than reducing emission in the scale necessary to limit global average temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. COP11 in Montreal in 2005 first proposed reducing carbon emissions by improving forest quality by halting degradation. By 2015, a new mechanism of financial assistance was created to help less developed countries with sustainable management of forests <a href="https://www.un-redd.org/">(called REDD+)</a>. Under this new mechanism, countries receive aid based on their efforts to prevent forest degradation and increase carbon sink, and in 2021 the World Bank was entrusted with implementing it. Nepal’s FCPF receipt this month was calculated on the basis of 2.4 million tons of carbon stored at a rate of $5 per ton. In the second phase, Nepal will receive more than Rs4 billion within the next year for storing an additional 7 million tons of carbon. Eighty per cent of this amount obtained from carbon trading needs to be spent on local beneficiaries and indigenous communities.&nbsp; But carbon trading is not easy, Nepal needs to prove that protected forests will not be destroyed in future.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241121091132_c8a381c9a95aa86fec558951650d97bb87914741f01766982ba2b086af001f16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20241121091132_c8a381c9a95aa86fec558951650d97bb87914741f01766982ba2b086af001f16" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="999" loading="lazy" alt="Greenbacks for greenery NT "> <figcaption>Photo: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption> </figure>  Explains carbon trading expert Yugan Manandhar. “Forests should be handed over to the community and shown that they are managed sustainably. Proving this will be particularly challenging; forest encroachment and degradation is rife in the Tarai.” <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/nepal-is-going-up-in-smoke">Deliberate forest fires</a> have also added to the challenge because they increase carbon emissions and reduce the sink capacity of forests. The basis for the amount that Nepal received was set five years ago by calculating the carbon reserves of forests in the 13 Tarai districts. In the meantime, sustainable forest management, tree plantation, forest destruction and erosion control were prioritised to increase carbon reserves in those forests. Nepal is signing another carbon trading agreement during the ongoing Baku climate conference. The <a href="https://www.leafcoalition.org/">Lowering Emissions by Accelerating Forest finance (LEAF Coalition) </a>proposes to sell the carbon stored in the forests of Bagmati, Gandaki and Lumbini provinces. For this, Nepal signed the letter of intent three years ago at COP26 in Glasgow. The target is to store 70 million tons of carbon in 32 million hectares of forest in the three provinces per which Nepal will receive Rs13 billion in four years at $10 per ton with provisions to increase the rate if various conditions are met. However, the agreement in itself doesn’t guarantee the amount. According to the targets set by Nepal, forest degradation should be stopped and carbon reserves increased by protecting tree cover. Preparations are also underway for clean air carbon trade because it has offset fossil fuel use by introducing 30,000 electric vehicles. Nepal has been selected for the first round to receive $40 million within one and a half years through the Clean Air System of the World Bank. Given that most of Nepal’s energy mix is from biomass, replacing them with electric stoves can significantly improve health by reducing indoor pollution as well as strengthen the country’s capacity for carbon trade. “Nepal's goal now is to sell carbon in the free market where carbon credits are bought and sold based on supply and demand in an open and transparent manner,” adds Pudasaini of the REDD Implementation Centre. “Nepal can now set its own price and bargain with interested buyer countries and organisations.” Lately, India has been discussing setting up a carbon market. Nepal has exported Rs12.72 billion worth of electricity to India so far this fiscal year, which can be traded under Nepal’s carbon market. “Carbon trading can create significant economic benefits for Nepal, which will help reinvest in development and environmental protection projects,” says Manandhar. “But we must prioritise sustainable management of forests, cutting older trees and allowing regrowth as well as promoting electric stoves and electric vehicles.”

Greenbacks for greenery

Khukri Rum is <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=3719#.WurBk6SFPIU">one of Nepal’s most iconic brands</a>, and is now launching a new Cask Series premium product to sell in Nepal and abroad. The Cask Series Smoked Finish Khukri Rum is a limited edition sipping rum with only about 5,200 bottles made for export and rum connoisseurs in Nepal. Each bottle is numbered and will mention the cask from which it is derived. “We are taking a classic Nepali liquor to a premium, luxury rum category. Each Cask Series flavour line will only be produced once,” explains Shuvash Lamichhane, General Manager of The Nepal Distilleries that first started making Khukri rum in 1959 in Balaju and has never stopped. Fermented from molasses in the Tarai after the annual sugarcane harvest, the rum is matured for at least eight months during distillation. The distillery bottles the classic Khukri XXX, Coronation Khukri XXX, Khukri White Rum and Khukri Spiced Rum. It is now adding this limited edition of the Cask Series. While the original rum is stored in huge wooden vats, the rum used for this more exclusive line is in smaller casks made from oak or sal, with charred insides that give the rum a smoky, smoother flavour. The Cask Series rum is indeed smokier than the classic, while the spiced rum tastes toasty and mostly of cardamom. These flavours are carefully crafted by blenders and tasters who have to pass regular palate tests.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241122131124_10b8ddca93b37b0348bf964b4f09e7fac6ef4e754cca6231368850539cd558e2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20241122131124_10b8ddca93b37b0348bf964b4f09e7fac6ef4e754cca6231368850539cd558e2" data-rendition-name="original" width="1498" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Khukri Rum"> </figure>  The packaging for the Cask Series is as special as the process. A sturdy patterned box that opens up to a black glass bottle with gold lettering, and an indication of which cask the rum is from. These are then shipped to premium customers around the world One of the reasons this is the more expensive premium line is because the casks are smaller than the vats and the blenders reject more than half of the rum in the casks when the aging period is complete. The trick for the blender is also to decide when to take the rum out of the cask. Says Lamichhane: “If we have 25 casks, only ten might match the flavour profile for a certain series.” Over the decades, The Nepal Distilleries has created and maintained a brand that feels quintessentially Nepali, and serves as Nepal’s ‘ambassador’ with exports to Germany, Korea, Belgium, Finland, the Czech Republic, besides the existing markets among Nepalis in the US, UK, Hong Kong and Australia. Its unique <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/khukri-rum-sharpens-its-act">khukri shaped bottle</a> first introduced for King Birendra’s coronation in 1975 has been a collector’s item. The bottle and rum have been a staple for Nepalis and visitors to take as gifts when they leave the country, and is used as decoration on bar tables around the world. Now, nearly 40 years later, even that bottle will soon be getting a makeover with a sharper design and sleeker handle. “Our bottle design has always been instantly recognisable,” says Lamichhane.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241122131124_b9474db3fc83c85845348dddc30c49652ee1f17229531867fa241de50849cedc.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20241122131124_b9474db3fc83c85845348dddc30c49652ee1f17229531867fa241de50849cedc" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Khukri Rum NT"> <figcaption>Christopher Armes, master blender of the Cask Series.</figcaption> </figure>  The Himalayan restaurant at The Hague, for example, has a Khukri Coronation bottle<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/from-the-himalaya-to-holland"> adorning its bar</a>. In Washington DC, Himalayan Heritage Restaurant &amp; Bar offers a ‘Nepalese Khukri Rum’ mojito with fresh mint, soda water, lime juice and sugar syrup, for $12. A distinct element of the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/business/khukri-rum-gets-award">award-winning classic Khukri rum</a> is its 'modern auburn' colour from caramel sourced from cooking sugar and blended with the raw rum. The spirits are then stored in a warehouse with floor-to-ceiling vats which are not just for storage, as the wood imparts flavour into the rum, and removes a lot of the harshness. &nbsp; On a visit this week, the bottling room was just about to begin for the day and the production line was churning out different shapes and sizes of Khukri bottles. Most of the process is automated, including screwing bottle caps, sticking labels, placing the government seal, and packaging. The only manual intervention is quality control where bottles are held against the light to check for sediment and colour.

Khukri goes premium with new rum

Turkish Airlines has introduced a new amenity kit collection designed in collaboration with French fashion house Lanvin for international business class passengers on flights more than five hours. It consists of five pieces designed for sustainability and elegance. Bags are reusable and will consist of Lanvin cosmetic products like hand and body lotions and lip balm. Eye masks and socks are made from recycled materials, earplugs are packaged in paper and the toothbrush is bamboo.

Turkish amenity kit

Nepal now generates a surplus of electricity and it is all from renewable hydropower. Nearly half the country is under forest cover. Despite meeting these decarbonisation goals, Nepal’s hydropower plants are threatened by increased risk due to climate impact.&nbsp; Till <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/when-it-rains-it-pours-ksqprbu3">28 September</a>, Nepal was <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/india-nepal-sign-power-exchange-deal">exporting just over 1,000MW</a> of electricity to power-hungry India, when flash floods and landslides unleashed by historically heavy rains damaged over 30 hydropower plants across the country, temporarily <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/power-to-the-people">slashing nearly half the power generation.</a> The 456MW Upper Tamakosi in Dolakha was the hardest hit and it will take six months and Rs2 billion to repair. This has significantly reduced exports as well as domestic generation. Two months later, Nepal has still not been unable to fully keep its export commitment, and is actually paying Rs100 million in fines to India. Thirty-seven existing and under construction projects under the Independent Power Producers' Association Nepal (IPPAN) suffered Rs2.5 billion in damage. One of them is the 22MW Bagmati project in Makwanpur which was almost completely buried in flood debris. Even before <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/60-dead-64-missing-in-nepal-floods">record-breaking rain in September</a>, 15 other hydropower projects had been damaged by floods. Last year, floods caused by heavy localised rain damaged 28 hydropower plants. World governments met in Baku for COP29 to discuss the Loss &amp; Damage Fund and the Adaptation Fund, but for countries like Nepal the commas and brackets are meaningless until they are turned into $ and €. And likelihood of adequate compensation for climate-related damage is a long way off, if ever. Nepal’s national strategy is to use its vast hydropower resource as clean energy to spur economic growth, job creation, and boost export revenue. But the plants are located in narrow Himalayan valleys prone to landslides and floods even at the best of times. Now, those <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/changing-climate-for-investment-in-nepal">risks have been heightened by weather extremes</a> due to climate breakdown. At present, Nepal generates over 3,300MW of clean hydropower, and the target is to reach 12,700MW in the next five years. Projects equivalent to 6,000MW are under construction or ready to start. The Ministry of Energy, Water Resources and Irrigation has an Energy Development Roadmap and Action Plan with the target of producing 28,500MW by 2035 by when more than half of it will be exported.&nbsp; “The climate crisis will further change the rainfall patterns making hydropower generation a big question mark in the future,” Manjeet Dhakal in Baku, who is also the Nepali adviser to the LDC Chair at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). “We are building hydropower projects on rivers without evaluating risk. This whole process needs to be reviewed and reconsidered.” The report of the National Adaptation Plan published by the Ministry of Forest and Environment last year mentions that hydropower production, transmission and distribution will be at risk from flash floods, debris flows, glacial lake outbursts and rising temperatures.&nbsp; This risk is not confined to Nepal. Average global temperatures have increased by 1.3°C compared to the pre-industrial era. Worse, the Himalayan mountains are warming faster than the global average by 0.7°C because of elevation-dependent warming. A study conducted by our own Department of Hydrology and Meteorology in 2017 showed that the average temperature in Nepal has increased in the last four decades. Scientists say this is leading to extreme weather unleashing floods and landslides on slopes already destabilized by seismicity.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241124071128_d22901a360e8958f606d80ffa21defba05a671f65afec65539dc21a6885d8345.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20241124071128_d22901a360e8958f606d80ffa21defba05a671f65afec65539dc21a6885d8345" data-rendition-name="original" width="1333" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Right climate for Nepal’s energy transition NT"> <figcaption>BIBLICAL RAIN: Photo taken during catastrophic rain on 27-28 September at the Upper Tamakosi project site that destroyed the control room, killing four staff and burying the sedimentation tanks. Photo: RSS</figcaption> </figure>  Increased atmospheric temperatures has made the monsoon rains more erratic. It does not rain when it is supposed to, and it comes down in torrents when it is not supposed to. The September floods happened two weeks after the monsoon was supposed to retreat from central Nepal. Kathmandu Valley received half its annual precipitation in just over a day. &nbsp; Winter precipitation has also failed, especially in the high mountains and trans-Himalayan valleys. Thirteen of the past 19 years experienced winter drought. This impacts on dry season flows of the rivers, reducing hydropower generation. Nepal’s power capacity normally goes down by one-fourth during winter, but the gap is widening. The Kabeli corridor could only generate 20MW November-March even though plants there have an installed capacity of 200MW. Similarly, Upper Tamakosi only produced 65MW at most against its 456MW capacity last winter. The Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) pays producers double the price for winter electricity, Rs8.40 per unit. Even though winter operation is highly profitable the rivers run low and NEA has to import from India to meet the winter demand. “This is not just a weather problem but a serious challenge also for the country's energy future, good climate-friendly design should be combined with policy and effective implementation,” says Subarna Das Shrestha, a hydropower investor and CEO of Sanima Mai Hydropower. “Insurance premiums have gone up as well, and settlement for damage is not timely.” <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/climate-risk-to-hydropower-investment">Hydropower investment</a> at one time was regarded as having a high rate of return. Now, some investors have become <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-smarter-himalayan-infrastructure">wary of the risks involved</a>. Says IPPAN’s Uttam Blon Lama: “Hydropower projects expected to give stable returns are now looking risky. Not only is climate adaptation design and planning expensive, but future repair and maintenance costs will also skyrocket.” Nepal has only one storage type dam <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/rivers-be-dammed">in Kulekhani</a> and another one is being built in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/missing-pieces-of-the-hydropower-jigsaw">Tanahu</a>, but they are also at risk. In September, the sluice gates of Kulekhani Dam had to be opened causing loss of life and destruction downstream. Nepal has to learn lessons from the deadly collapse of the $1 billion <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/sikkim-flood-is-warning-to-nepal">Chungthang Dam in Sikkim</a> in October 2023 cause by a glacial lake burst. Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in Nepal pose potentially catastrophic risk to infrastructure. The <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lives-on-the-line-in-the-himalaya">Thame flood in August</a> was a relatively minor debris flow that damaged half of this village in the Everest region when <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/climate-breakdown-linked-to-thame-flood">two glacial lakes at 4,760m burst</a>. Luckily there was no loss of life. Of the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lives-on-the-line-in-the-himalaya">47 high-risk glacial lakes</a> in the eastern Nepal Himalaya, 21 are in Nepal and the rest are in rivers in China that are tributaries of the Arun and Bhote Kosi where Nepal has major hydropower plants under construction, or planned.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241123021128_b596cd8520c57a6c5476031e7a3ea6510f26b464c4d5351d2bc10f6f7d6b70d8.jpg" data-media-id="editor_14" data-image-id="20241123021128_b596cd8520c57a6c5476031e7a3ea6510f26b464c4d5351d2bc10f6f7d6b70d8" data-rendition-name="original" width="871" height="648" loading="lazy" alt="Page 10-11 map #1236 NT"> </figure>  Global temperature rise is accelerating the melting of Himalayan snow and ice, increasing the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/living-below-nepal-s-melting-mountains">number and size of glacial lakes</a> so that we do not even have names for them. Imja Tso did not even exist in the old trekking maps until 25 years ago, but is now a 2km long lake. “Natural moraine dams in the mountains are weak, and the projects downstream can face major destruction if they burst, and the risk will only increase in future,” warns climatologist Arun Bhakta Shrestha at the <a href="https://www.icimod.org/">International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD)</a>. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/terrifying-assessment-of-a-himalayan-melting">An ICIMOD assessment in 2019</a> projected that if present heating trends continue, as they probably will, the Himalaya will lose two-thirds of our glaciers by the end of this century. “Generally speaking, hydropower developers hand over the project to the government after 30 years but by that time given the climate risks, they may not be an asset anymore,” says Manjeet Dhakal. Indeed, the cascade of expensive projects India is building on the Arun River are supposed to be handed back to Nepal in 25 years, but there is a big ‘if’ about whether they will survive that long. &nbsp;&nbsp; Planning of hydropower projects is still based on historical hydrological data, and does not take into account future temperature rise and its consequences. Investors, on the other hand, say that planning hydropower projects with climate components would make them even more expensive.&nbsp; “It’s not that we aren’t preparing for climate risk, we design keeping in mind the once-in-100-year flood,” says Blon of IPPAN. “But if we start designing based on once in 1,000 years flood, the cost would be so high that we won’t be able to build them at all.” Nonetheless, Subarna Das Shrestha of Sanima Mai Hydropower says that there is no option but to go for climate smart infrastructure despite the higher cost. Sanima Mai's powerhouse, for example, is completely underground. The strategy could also be to spread the risk by building less expensive plants located on rivers all over the country. Nepal is also diversifying away from its sole reliance on hydroelectricity, which at present supplies 92% of the power in the grid. Most of the rest comes from solar plants, where the total potential has not even been scratched. &nbsp; This article is brought to you by <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/" target="_blank">Nepali Times</a>, in collaboration with <a href="https://inpsjapan.com/en/" target="_blank">INPS Japan</a> and <a href="https://sgi-peace.org/" target="_blank">Soka Gakkai International</a>, in consultative status with UN ECOSOC.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240630110640_30c3782f9c09219bf1c249b51483a3cfb7a53a06d117d2aebd23ca7080d12758.jpg" data-media-id="editor_21" data-image-id="20240630110640_30c3782f9c09219bf1c249b51483a3cfb7a53a06d117d2aebd23ca7080d12758" data-rendition-name="original" width="680" height="103" loading="lazy" alt="SDG logo"> </figure>  &nbsp;