<figure><img width="1140" height="550" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101136/636a23129c7e80680e0417c7jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: Nature Communications</figcaption></figure>What makes Nepal scenic is also what makes it seismic. The country is located in one of the most vulnerable regions of the world for earthquakes, and our ancestors were used to them happening regularly. They knew that as they rebuilt after one earthquake, they had to prepare for the next one. A scientific paper published in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-07874-8" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nature Communications </a>this month gives us a sobering reminder of this danger. Even as we catch up with reconstruction and rehabilitation after 2015, we have to scale up to the whole country our preparedness for the Next Big One.Himalayan earthquakes fall into two main types. There are moderate intensity quakes like the ones in 2015 and 2008 which are accompanied by a lot of shaking, but do not deform the surface. Then there are gigantic upheavals like the 8.3 magnitude 1934 quake epicentred in eastern Nepal which destroyed much of Kathmandu, and the 8.7 magnitude Assam earthquake in 1950, described as the greatest earthquake to hit the Himalaya in recorded history. Megaquakes like these uplift the surface and are what formed the Himalaya.Seismologists studying data from the 2015 event have concluded that the Gorkha Earthquake ruptured eastwards, and stopped underground somewhere south of Kathmandu Valley, and instead of releasing the stores stress, <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/01/earthquakes-priming-himalaya-disaster/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">increased tectonic tension</a> underneath Central Nepal. They say moderate quakes like 2015 can actually trigger future megaquakes as the rock layers release accumulated stress along faults.These urgent warnings came as Nepal marked the anniversary of the 1934 megaquake last week as National Earthquake Safety Day.Himalayan seismologist <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/preparing-for-future-shocks,3472" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Roger Bilham</a> says the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/from-nepali-press/not-destructive-as-predicted-but-the-loss-is-still-great,2221" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2015 earthquake was not the Big One</a> which scientists had feared. In fact, it is still collecting energy beneath us and it could be let off in the near future just as the 1833 earthquake in Kathmandu was followed by another one 30 years later. The second quake this time could cause more damage because its epicentre may be directly beneath Kathmandu Valley. Added to the unfinished business of 2015, there is also the danger posed by the seismic gap in western Nepal which has not seen a megaquake since 1505. The western half of the country was not affected by 2015, and is at double risk because of the long seismic gap and relatively low awareness there about <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/preparing-for-the-next-big-earthquake-in-nepal" target="_blank" rel="noopener">earthquake safety</a>.The focus on rebuilding in 14 districts of central Nepal hit by the 2015 earthquake should not stop us from getting western Nepal prepared for the Big One. Indeed, the whole of Nepal, northern India and the region should brace itself because a megaquake of 8.5 magnitude in western Nepal would cause widespread death and devastation across northern South Asia, which is the world’s most densely-populated region. Seismologists warn it could possibly be the worst disaster in human history in terms of loss of life.Response to the 2015 earthquake should now encompass the whole country, schools need to be retrofitted, hospitals and public buildings reinforced, and disaster management plans be put into place. But as with everything else in Nepal, we tend to focus on a disaster that has already occurred than on the one that has not struck yet. The answer may lie in provincial and local governments enforcing building codes and drawing up preparedness plans, a job for which the national government has so far been deficient. The 2015 earthquakes were an important <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=19934#.WtRzzNRua71" target="_blank" rel="noopener">warning</a> for us to be better prepared for the really big one. Despite the tragic loss of 8,900 lives, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/kunda-dixit-when-earthquake-struck-nepal,2214" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal got off relatively lightly</a> three years ago for a quake of that magnitude. It struck on a Saturday when schools were closed, the telecommunication network was functioning, highways were open, electricity supply was restored fairly quickly and Kathmandu Airport was not damaged. Next time we <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/big-earthquake-still-coming-nepal,2815" target="_blank" rel="noopener">may not be so lucky</a>. Monks in Tibet noted the exact time of the last big quake in western Nepal at 6AM on 1 June 1505. Estimated at 8.9, that earthquake devastated north India, destroyed Agra and other Moghul cities, may have trigged the Annapurna slope collapse that dammed the Seti River which burst to create the debris field where Pokhara is located today. There is now so much slip deficit beneath western Nepal that a sudden elastic rebound can move the entire half of the country southwards by a shocking 14m. The Gorkha Earthquake three years ago was just a forewarning of an even bigger disaster to come. <h2>10 years ago this week</h2> Ten years ago in <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/435" target="_blank" rel="noopener">#435 of Nepali Times</a> for 23-26 January 2009, Prashant Jha in <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=15598#.XErqP1UzaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">his column Plain Speaking</a> wrote about the simmering anger in the Tarai two years after the Madhes uprising. Kathmandu's inability to heed this warning led to further violence when the constitution was promulgated in 2015. Excerpt:Two years after the Madhes movement altered Nepali nationalism, the Tarai is in a mess.Anger against Kathmandu was the defining feature of this period. Now, a mix of disillusionment, rage, helplessness and fear prevails. Macro politics is more fragmented than ever, across party and caste lines. And at the micro level violence has become the only tool to resolve political and personal disputes.Kathmandu can appoint a credible minister for Tarai affairs to handle political grievances, local killings, micro disputes, administrative weakness, agreement implementation. Full time, sensitive, and sincere engagement with the plains is the only hope.<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/435"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101136/636a23159c7e80680e0417c8jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="509" height="816"></a>

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AIN’T SEEN NOTHING YET

<h2>Preparing western Nepal for a future megaquake is now even more urgent than reconstruction in areas hit by the 2015 disaster</h2><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710114/6368ca9e9c7e80680e02f320jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="933"/><figcaption>Yubaraj Shrestha</figcaption></figure>Nepalis live in one of the most seismically active zones in the world. Nepal is number one in the list of top ten countries vulnerable to catastrophic earthquakes. But even the 2015 disaster <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/not-out-of-danger-the-big-one">will pale in comparison to a much bigger earthquake</a> which scientists say threatens western Nepal.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710114/6368caa19c7e80680e02f321jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="130" height="101">Geologists are hesitant to predict when earthquakes will strike, they will only say it is going to happen one day and that we should be prepared.But Himalayan seismologist <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/preparing-for-future-shocks,3472">Roger Bilham</a> prefers to tell people to their face that the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/from-nepali-press/not-destructive-as-predicted-but-the-loss-is-still-great,2221">2015 earthquake was not the Big One</a> which scientists had feared. He says it is still collecting energy that could be let off in future.Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/how-prepared-are-we-for-the-next-big-one/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">How prepared are we for the next big one?,</a> Sashi ShresthaBilham and other seismologists say there are two dangers lurking beneath the Himalaya: one is the unfinished business of 2015, and the other is a looming megaquake in western Nepal.Scientists agree that if a slip has already occurred in one section of the Himalaya, another earthquake of the same magnitude is unlikely to hit the same area for about 100 years – unless the energy has not been fully released.Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/mind-the-gap/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mind the gap</a>, EditorialThe <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/kundadixit/2015/05/27/a-month-that-felt-like-a-year/">2015 earthquake of 7.8 magnitude</a> has been compared to a similar intensity quake that hit Kathmandu in 1833. That one also did not completely dissipate its energy, and sure enough another quake hit the Valley in 1866.Bilham says that double  whammy could be repeated. However, the second quake this time could cause more damage because its epicentre may be in faults directly beneath Kathmandu Valley. Fingers crossed that the energy will release itself in a creep, and not a jolt.The second scenario for western Nepal is even scarier. It could be the mother of all earthquakes because there hasn’t been a megaquake in western Nepal since an estimated 8.4 quake struck in 1505.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5VjaSFEf4BUVideo: Robert Butler, University of PortlandBijay Krishna Upadhyay of <a href="http://www.nset.org.np/nset2012/">the National Society for Earthquake Technology</a> (NSET-Nepal) says the western half of the country is at double risk because of the long seismic gap and relatively low awareness about <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/preparing-for-the-next-big-earthquake-in-nepal">earthquake safety</a>.After a relatively low intensity 6.8 magnitude earthquake epicentred in Udayapur killed nearly 700 people in Dharan and surrounding areas in 1988, it was easier for the government and organisations like NSET to convince people to build earthquake-resistant houses in eastern Nepal.Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/1-3-empty-or-2-3-full/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">1/3 empty or 2/3 Full</a>, Nigel Fisher“We now need to shift our attention not just to western Nepal but the entire country while continuing with reconstruction in the earthquake-affected districts,” says Upadhyay.A campaign to spread awareness about earthquake safety had been started in western Nepal after a 6.4 magnitude earthquake killed 180 people in and around Bajhang district in 1980. But the focus shifted to eastern Nepal after the Dharan tragedy.However, in the last three years the focus has once more gone to the 14 districts of Central Nepal hit by the 2015 earthquake. As a result, the western part of the country which scientists consider the most vulnerable is not prepared at all for an earthquake that is sure to hit one day.Ajaya Dixit, author of a recent book on disaster preparedness (<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/disasters-in-Nepal-book-review,3965">Nepalma Bipad</a>), says: “Our response to the 2015 earthquake has largely focused on rebuilding damaged houses, and we have not looked at disasters in their entirety to prevent systemic vulnerability from reproducing itself elsewhere.”One government official who has been harping on <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/preparedness-saves-lives,2264">retrofitting buildings</a> all over Nepal after the 2015 earthquake is Govind Raj Pokhrel, the former CEO of the National Reconstruction Authority (NRA). He proposed training on reinforced masonry all over the country, including the west, to ease the shortage of skilled bricklayers in the districts hit in 2015.“It could have helped technology transfer. After building houses in the earthquake-affected districts, they could have returned to their own villages in western Nepal and inspired others to build<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2015/05/26/the-building-blocks-of-reconstruction/"> earthquake-resistant houses</a>,” he explains.But the NRA bureaucracy and donors prefer to focus on a disaster that has already happened instead of one that has not struck yet. Pokhrel himself resigned to contest elections, and his proposal was shelved.One silver lining is that after last year’s <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/the-election-fever-federal-and-parliamentary-election,3982">local and provincial polls</a>, enforcing building codes are now mandatory in municipalities and villages across the country. Local governments will be the best place to implement this requirement, and some provincial governments have already prioritised disaster preparedness in their first plans and policies.In Province 4, Chief Minister Prithvi Subba Gurung has decided to set up an emergency relief fund, and promises to strictly implement the building code in Pokhara and other towns to prepare his region for future shock.“Nepalis tend to forget a tragedy very quickly, but our provincial government will never forget the lessons learnt from the 2015 earthquake,” Gurung told us.However good plans and policies sound, in Nepal the proof of the pudding is always in the implementation.Kathmandu has an excellent building code, for example, but it has been flagrantly flouted leading to the loss of lives in 2015.Dixit says awareness about disaster preparedness among local governments and the new national Disaster Management Act that focuses on preparedness are encouraging. But, he adds: “Major limitations exist: low institutional capacity, lack of financial and other resources, skill sets and equipment.”<h3>Himalayan seismic gaps</h3>What makes Mt Machapuchre (6990m) such a stunning peak (above) is also what makes it dangerous. Central and western Nepal have not suffered a megaquake for 700 years. Map below shows potential future intensity of earthquakes and slip in metres based on estimate of stored tectonic pressure along the Himalayan arc.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710114/6368caa29c7e80680e02f322jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1000" height="696"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Read also:<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/not-out-of-danger-the-big-one">Not out of danger yet</a>,  Sonia Awale<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/preparing-for-future-shocks,3472">Future shock</a>,  Editorial<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/headline/Ruined-future,3471">Ruined future</a> <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/from-nepali-press/not-destructive-as-predicted-but-the-loss-is-still-great,2221">Not-so-big One</a>,  From the Nepali Press

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Home Minister Sudan Gurung resigned on Wednesday following increasing coverage of and criticism over his investment in companies linked to controversial Nepali business figures Sulav Agrawal and Deepak Bhatta, who are currently under investigation for money laundering.
‘I am resigning from the position of Home Minister effective today to ensure impartial investigation into matters associated with me, and to make sure that there is no conflict of interest,’ Gurung wrote, saying that morality and public trust mattered more to him than office.
Gurung ended his message to the nation in English as he invoked the security forces, writing: &nbsp;‘For my country and For the respect of our security forces and For the youths of Nepal.’
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Gurung has become the second member to depart the Cabinet, serving for less than a month, despite the Nepali electorate’s hopes that Nepal would finally get a stable government after the RSP’s sweeping victory in the March elections.&nbsp;
Prime Minister Balendra Shah had sought clarification from Gurung on Wednesday after new details emerged about his shares in two micro-insurance companies, Star Micro Insurance and Liberty Micro Life, which are said to have been issued their licence by the Nepal Insurance Authority at the behest of Bhatta and Agrawal.
Gurung denied financial misconduct, saying that his investment in the two companies was included in his asset disclosure and insisting the misunderstanding is because of how the shares have been categorised.&nbsp;
Leaders within the RSP had called for an internal investigation into Gurung as they sought to maintain the party’s platform of clean governance and transparency. As such, Gurung’s position had become increasingly untenable, especially since former Labour Minister was sacked without being given an opportunity for clarification over a disciplinary breach involving his wife’s appointment to the Health Insurance Board.&nbsp;
On social media, Sah on Tuesday seemed to express dissatisfaction over the PM’s request for Gurung’s clarification.&nbsp;
Judging by the comments under Gurung’s resignation post, a significant part of the Nepali public seems to be firmly on Gurung’s side, blaming the mass media and what they call mouthpieces of old parties for driving him out of the Cabinet.&nbsp;
This is a reflection of his meteoric rise and the continued support he has maintained since he stepped into the spotlight as the leader of Nepal’s youth movement in the aftermath of the September protest.&nbsp;
Gurung has made headlines constantly ever since he burst onto the national stage, which includes questions over the degree of his and his organisation Hami Nepal’s involvement in the September 9 unrest, calls to divulge details behind Hami Nepal’s finances, and not paying five years of rent for an illegal lakefront property in Pokhara.&nbsp;
There have also been unsubstantiated claims, despite Gurung’s denial, about his ‘ties’ to the Free Tibet movement, which has made the Chinese— as well as Nepalis— wary.&nbsp;
As Home Minister, Gurung cultivated an image of a tough but approachabe leader, overseeing a series of high-profile arrests of previous political leadership and business figures even as he posted photos of sleeping in a sofa in his office, and engaged with the public on the streets and on social media.&nbsp;
As it stands, the Home Ministry was a bone of contention between Shah and RSP Chair Rabi Lamichhane before it was awarded to Gurung, who is a close ally of PM Shah. Analysts had noted that with Gurung in charge, the Home Ministry would be a hook for Shah if Lamichhane, with his share of controversies, stepped out of line.&nbsp;
Following Gurung’s resignation, the Prime Minister’s secretariat has said that the PM would take charge of the portfolio for the time being. But it will be interesting to see if and how fresh negotiations for the Ministry unfold within RSP.&nbsp;
And with his supporter base largely intact, it remains to be seen how much of an impact this setback will have on Sudan Gurung’s political aspirations.&nbsp;

Home Minister Sudan Gurung resigns

Sudan Gurung is dancing. It is 2009. He has an emo fringe falling over one eye and is spinning on a polished floor. His dance shows dedication — moves that take years of bruised elbows to land. The clip is 16 years old, and had been sitting in the dead archives of YouTube and old Facebook pages, watched by almost nobody. This month <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@4gr4j/video/7621892206902725909">it has 1.9 million views</a>. Gurung became Home Minister on 27 March and resigned on Wednesday, barely a month into office. His<a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@aayvik/video/7626069452177542408"> pre-political life had been put back into circulation</a> at industrial speed -- the b-boying, the DJ sets, and the YouTube video of him dancing in a music clip.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026042202040_71df4d531423e7c941abde95fb8106346c70ab0afb71bbeb520cc570f14ba178.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="2026042202040_71df4d531423e7c941abde95fb8106346c70ab0afb71bbeb520cc570f14ba178" data-rendition-name="original" width="2300" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="When aura meets audit"> </figure>  The youth of Nepal, well-versed in snappy TikTok edits and aura compilations, turned the archive into a meme economy almost overnight. TikTok remixed the footage to trap beats. The comments settled on a nickname that crossed into everyday speech within days: 'Homie Minister'. <div class="embed-block"><blockquote class="tiktok-embed" cite="https://www.tiktok.com/@yalexthwreal/video/7622325255792512276" data-video-id="7622325255792512276" style="max-width: 605px;min-width: 325px;" > <section> <a target="_blank" title="@yalexthwreal" href="https://www.tiktok.com/@yalexthwreal?refer=embed">@yalexthwreal</a> <a title="sudangurung" target="_blank" href="https://www.tiktok.com/tag/sudangurung?refer=embed">#sudangurung</a> new home minister of Nepal😎 <a title="fyppppppppppppppppppppppp" target="_blank" href="https://www.tiktok.com/tag/fyppppppppppppppppppppppp?refer=embed">#fyppppppppppppppppppppppp</a> <a title="sudangrg" target="_blank" href="https://www.tiktok.com/tag/sudangrg?refer=embed">#sudangrg</a> <a title="home" target="_blank" href="https://www.tiktok.com/tag/home?refer=embed">#home</a> <a title="minister" target="_blank" href="https://www.tiktok.com/tag/minister?refer=embed">#minister</a> <a target="_blank" title="♬ original sound - •⪨н є α я т ❤н α ¢ к є я ⪩• - Music Universe 🎧" href="https://www.tiktok.com/music/original-sound-•⪨н-є-α-я-т-❤н-α-¢-к-є-я-⪩•-7308733170064231170?refer=embed">♬ original sound - •⪨н є α я т ❤н α ¢ к є я ⪩• - Music Universe 🎧</a> </section> </blockquote> <script async src="https://www.tiktok.com/embed.js"></script></div> As Home Minister, Gurung was in charge of the Nepal Police, Armed Police Force, Department of Immigration, and the country's internal security apparatus. Calling him 'homie' collapsed the distance between that office and the Discord server where the movement that brought him into power had organised itself. What is harder to explain is why the nostalgic clips did the narrative work for Gurung's political standing right up until the moment the paperwork did not. A teenager on a dance floor in a Thamel club, filmed before smartphones had decent cameras, was functioning as political currency for a powerful home minister, while a share registry was quietly filling the other column. The footage was not an argument. Gurung was not doing anything in it that related to home affairs. He was just dancing. The comments compared him to <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@4gr4j/video/7621892206902725909">Korean film heroes</a>. A separate <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@tandavyt7/video/7622151050128018708">48,000-like edit</a> was captioned 'Our New Home Minister Aura'. The replies were full of people saying they got chills listening to him speak. Even after his resignation, most comments on his Facebook page were supportive, saying he had been punished for pursuing truth and justice.&nbsp; Political legitimacy in Nepal has been built out of many things over the last 70 years, but it has never been built out of this. The question was always: what happens when the job starts demanding things his style, boldness, and swag cannot provide. Political aura in Nepal used to be a slow harvest, now it isn't. B P Koirala spent eight years in prison under the Panchayat. He wrote fiction at Sundari Jal. The writing survived, the prison sentences survived, and that experience became the template for what a serious Nepali politician looked like: someone the state had tried to break and failed. Legitimacy was accumulated by having their lives taken away, and refusing to bend the knee. The old mechanics of legitimacy produced politicians who could be audited. The record was made of words, dates, votes, and years behind bars. A voter who wanted to know what a leader stood for read his writings. A journalist digging for inconsistency could find it. The system was slow, often corrupt, and frequently boring. But boring was part of the job description. A minister was supposed to be slightly dull — evidence that the person was doing the unglamorous work of reading files and sitting through committee meetings. Today, boring is a disqualification. The attention economy rewards velocity and visual charge, and a politician who cannot generate either does not exist in the feed, and that means does not exist at all. The legacy parties are still issuing press statements criticising the new guard in the grammar of paper trails and procedural failure. But the audience has stopped reading, users scroll for their next viral bite. Sudan Gurung, unlike the old parties, understood exactly which grammar the feed rewarded. On his first evening as Home Minister, he posted a photo of himself sleeping on a sofa inside the ministry. Caption: creation cannot be greater than the creator, government is not above the people. The image travelled further in 12 hours than any ministerial press release has ever done.&nbsp; A minister napping on a sofa, phone-shot, zero production, read by the public as evidence of a minister who had skipped the motorcade and got straight to work. Gurung used Facebook to announce the names of former ministers and businessmen he intended to arrest. The feed was used to pre-announce state security action.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260422010456_2fa1918e1dd031d01f38b4001ee306d9414073cec0b795fa43a75cb5a8deb8c7.png" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20260422010456_2fa1918e1dd031d01f38b4001ee306d9414073cec0b795fa43a75cb5a8deb8c7" data-rendition-name="original" width="926" height="868" loading="lazy" alt="When aura meets audit"> </figure>  INFLUENTIAL INFLUENCER This is not how the Ministry of Home Affairs has ever operated. It is how a YouTuber releases a series. Sudan Gurung was a political content creator. As home minister, he was an influential influencer kinetically doing something in the visual medium. Much like Prime Minister Balendra Shah's sunglasses, Gurung's aura, authenticity and swag were a brand asset, instantly recognisable at thumbnail size. Balen's rap career supplies a pre-political archive that authenticates him the same way Gurung's DJ sets and b-boying clips authenticated him. The aesthetic is doing the work a manifesto used to do. The work is authenticity, and the strategy is auramaxxing. The emo fringe predates the ministry. The DJ sets predate Hami Nepal. The b-boying predates the earthquake, the NGO, the September uprising, the interim cabinet, all of it. Whatever Gurung is now, he was already that person before the office existed. This was the real spectacle of the Homie Minister: authenticity. Nepal's youth have grown up watching heavily-polished, talking-point ministers speak in a language aimed at nobody in particular. But that grainy archival clip of the Home Minister from 2009 was honest.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260422010456_5d6dff3a09e8b7e77dc60c3aa567c9e02b6bd5f90f94e20737ec05cc9a09023b.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20260422010456_5d6dff3a09e8b7e77dc60c3aa567c9e02b6bd5f90f94e20737ec05cc9a09023b" data-rendition-name="original" width="1800" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="When aura meets audit NT"> </figure>  The effect transcended GenZ. <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@ektapokharel/video/7623242573481561365">A TikTok trend</a> captioned NOT ONLY OUR HOME MINISTER, WE ARE ALSO FROM THAT ERA <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@sonykhadka/video/7624106790266948872">has millennials posting their own</a> archive photos from the same period, aligning themselves with Gurung's pre-political aesthetic. The aura did <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@_thakuri/video/7623397397556645141">cross-generational work</a>. It was a shared legibility, spanning at least 15 years of Nepali youth culture, with the Home Minister standing at its centre.&nbsp; The traditional politician's entire adult life is a performance of identity. Every photograph is lit for the media, every statement is vetted. The persona is the product, and the product has been in development for 30 years. This makes the old guard legible but suspect in the attention economy. A generation raised on authenticity-as-currency reads the decades of careful performance as evidence of something to hide. The polish is the problem. The nostalgic Sudan Gurung party clips inverted this. The polish was absent. The footage could not be performance aimed at the viewer, because the viewer did not exist in 2009 and neither did the political stakes. The clip was therefore read as real, in a way a press conference can never be. It was just a kid dancing, and he happened to grow up to be the Home Minister. But Sudan Gurung's job was never to go viral. The Ministry of Home Affairs requires the person running it to file a complete asset declaration and to avoid holding financial interests in crony entities.&nbsp; None of that work is content. A correctly filed asset declaration does not get remixed into a trap beat. A functioning immigration database is not a TikTok. The paperwork that constitutes actual governance is structurally boring in exactly the way the old parties are structurally boring, and for the same reason. It is the slow, procedural, checkable apparatus that the old system was built to produce and that the new system has not yet learned to replace. And it is painstaking follow-the-money paper trail investigative journalists in the legacy media who uncovered the evidence. You cannot auramaxx your way out of a share registry. You cannot post your way past a conflict-of-interest statute. No amount of fire outfits and wild DJ transitions does anything for you when a journalist pulls the initial shareholder list of Star Micro Insurance and finds your name at number 49, with Rs2.5 million in shares alongside investors linked to Deepak Bhatta and Sulav Agrawal — two men currently at the centre of a Rs 3.7 billion money laundering investigation. <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@blox.drop/video/7622173520981658900">Auramaxxing was engineered</a> for the mechanics of reaching office. It is the reason Sudan Gurung became Home Minister and Gagan Thapa did not. The question that had not yet been tested, until this week, was whether the same weapon works when the terrain changes. The terrain does change when you assume power. This week, the answer arrived. TWO CLOCKS Two clocks had been running, and they did not sync. The first clock was built for auramaxxing. A clip posted at eight in the morning peaked by noon. A sofa photo was remixed before the minister had left the building. The feedback loop is fast and legible, and a politician playing this clock gets real-time data on what to post next. The old guard never learned to read it, which is a large part of why they lost the election. The second clock was the one the ministry actually runs on. It measures in quarters, court calendars, and the slow grind of investigation files moving between offices. A share registry takes weeks to pull. A money-laundering case moves at the speed of the prosecutor's office, which is to say, it often does not appear to move at all, until one morning it does. The legacy mass media is fed leaks, and the second clock does not care whether the minister is currently trending. The two clocks collided this week, and the second clock got there first. Faster than anyone expected. The first clock put Gurung in the Home Ministry in weeks. The second clock put him out of it in less than a month. On Sunday evening, Diyopost and Janaastha published documents showing Gurung as a founding shareholder in Star Micro Insurance and Liberty Micro Life — companies licensed by the Nepal Insurance Authority in 2022 following what reporting identified as political lobbying by Bhatta and Agrawal. A photograph also surfaced of Hami Nepal, the NGO Gurung chairs, honouring Bhatta as a donor on 21 December 2021. Gurung's first response was auramaxxed. A Monday Facebook post distinguishing ‘rumours’ from ‘facts’, insisting the shares were disclosed within his broader Rs20 million securities portfolio, promising to cooperate with any investigation. "Allegations and truth are not the same thing," he wrote. "Decisions should be based on evidence, not sentiment." It was a coherent clip, but it did not stop the clock. By Wednesday, Prime Minister Balendra Shah had sought written clarification. Leaders within the RSP itself were calling for his resignation. The opposition Nepali Congress had framed the question as one of democratic transparency.&nbsp; Gurung resigned, posting his decision to Facebook as he did everything else. Ethics, he wrote, hold more weight than any position. There is no power greater than public trust. He ended in English, invoking ‘my country … the respect of our security forces … the youths of Nepal’. Even the exit was content. And this is the asymmetry the office exposed. A politician whose legitimacy is built on fast 30 second videos is structurally exposed to a process that runs slower than the news cycle, because the archive of aesthetic proof was not engineered to answer documentary evidence.&nbsp; It was engineered to displace the demand for documentary evidence in the first place. When that demand returns, as it always does once a politician takes office, the digital archive keeps performing, but the documents keep getting uncovered. And the two tracks do not communicate. The old guard knew this clock because they had no other clock to know. What they lost in charisma they gained in durability: a politician built over 20 years of parliamentary record is harder to dislodge with a single document because they have already survived thousands of documents. The new guard has not been stress-tested against its own paper trail. Sudan Gurung has now been tested, and the test is over, and the template has been written in his exit rather than his survival.&nbsp; A politician can enter office on the strength of a dance clip, and the same class of evidence — share registries, company filings, founding-shareholder lists at number 49 — that would have ended the career of a politician in a previous era of Nepali politics has ended his. The second clock got there. The feed did not save him. Or not entirely. Because the resignation itself is now in the feed. The Facebook post. The 46 brothers and sisters. The epic sign-off. Within hours of stepping down, Gurung had already re-enrolled his exit into the same register that put him in office. The clip of the Home Minister dancing in 2009 is still in circulation. The sofa photo still reads as sincerity. The investigation into the micro-insurance shares will move at the speed of Nepal's prosecutor's office, which is to say, at a speed the feed has long since outrun. The movement that installed Gurung in the name of ending elite capture has had its answer about whether its own hero is subject to the same audit it demanded of everyone else. He walked — or was walked — before the audit ran its course. The resignation was framed as moral choice rather than forced exit, and the framing is already winning. Whether that framing holds is the next test. Auramaxxing, it turns out, is a weapon that works in one direction only: it got him the job, and when the documents arrived, it did not save him. But it may yet save the person. These are not the same thing. If the technique is wounded, it is not yet dead. The next Nepali politician with a pre-political archive and a phone is watching how Gurung exits, not just how he entered. And the answer is: you exit the same way you entered: on Facebook. In your own voice. Before anyone else writes the caption. Whether he comes back is the thing to watch. Whether the technique does is already decided. &nbsp; &nbsp;

When Aura meets Audit

Just three weeks in, Prime Minister Balendra Shah has already shed two ministers, and is having to contend with the economic fallout of the West Asia war plus the global order that it has upended.&nbsp;
The new dispensation in Nepal has aroused interest in New Delhi, Beijing as well as Washington. The ouster of Home Minister Sudan Gurung, whose first act in office was to arrest former prime minister K P Oli, has foreign policy wonks scratching their heads.
The US sent Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Samir Paul Kapur on a special mission to figure out what is happening in Kathmandu. In town at the same time was Cao Jing, Deputy Director General of the Asian Affairs Department of China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. And Prime Minister Shah is preparing for an official visit to India.
For the Americans, it is mostly about containing China and looking after the welfare of Tibetan refugees, while pushing its own MCC Compact and State Partnership Program (SSP). Beijing is mindful of the post-Dalai Lama era, and does not want instability in Nepal to encourage free-Tibet activities. India lately seems more wary of American activity in what it considers its backyard.
The Chinese appear relieved to see Sudan Gurung go. Only last week, Ambassador Zhang Maoming met Gurung during which he raised the issue of Tibetan and Taiwanese activities in Nepal, seeking firm commitment that Kathmandu would not harbour activities hostile to Beijing.
“Geographically we are close to Tibet and not to the Mainland, so China remains suspicious of us, especially after the TOB and free-Tibet components that emerged from the GenZ protests,” says geopolitical analyst Indra Adhikari.
Kapur, for his part, met RSP Chair Rabi Lamichhane, Finance Minister Swarnim Wagle and Foreign Minister Shishir Khanal. Although investment and infrastructure was on the agenda, the main issue seems to have been about Tibetan refugees. In nearly parallel meetings with ministers, Cao Jing warned Nepal not to be too cosy with the Americans.
For Indian academic and Nepal watcher Sukh Deo Muni, all this harks back to American activity in Nepal during the height of the Cold War. He tweeted: ‘US senior diplomat Paul Kapur's statement in Kathmandu must be understood carefully in New Delhi. He said the US does not want China or any other country to dominate Nepal.’&nbsp;
‘Any other country’ could be a pointed reference to India, and what this means is that Nepal may now have to navigate even more carefully a tri-polar world order reshaped by the West Asia war.&nbsp;
Nepali journalist based in New Delhi Akanshya Shah agrees that the United States may not be seeing Nepal through the Indian lens anymore, while New Delhi does not want heightened US activity in what it considers its sphere of influence. All this is further complicated by recent frostiness in Washington-New Delhi ties.
“New Delhi doesn’t have that familiarity factor it used to with old leadership in Nepal, but it is curious about what the young Balen Shah will do and what kind of relation he will pursue with India,” she adds. “Certain decisions of the Balen government such as ending VIP culture and delivering passport at homes have hugely resonated with the Indian people, he has in some ways become a role model among the youth in India as well.”
India has invited Prime Minister Shah for an official state visit, which will be his first foreign trip as per tradition. Shah graduated in structural engineering from a college in Bengaluru, and knows India well. Shah has injected religious elements into his public exposure as prime minister and this could help project Nepal’s ‘soft power’ in dealing with India.
But he has also been a nationalist on the Limpiyadhura map dispute, and there are other thorny issues like air connectivity, river projects and power exports that need to be ironed out.&nbsp;
Sukh Deo Muni warns that the old Indian diplomatic approach based on religio-cultural stakeholders in Kathmandu may not work anymore. He wrote: ‘India's Modi government must prepare itself well to deal with new Nepalese leadership and their empowered support base, which is self-confident, highly nationalist, aspirant and impatient.’
The RSP’s 22-page National Commitment document said Nepal should abandon its historical ‘buffer state’ identity to serve as a ‘vibrant bridge’ between regional and global powers. Much of this debate is theoretical, and there is much navel-gazing that distracts from regional realpolitik.&nbsp;
“Whether we are a buffer state or a vibrant bridge, in today’s heightened geopolitical scenario we have to have good relations with good neighbours,” explains Akanshya Shah. “What is of paramount importance is that our ties are based on the aspirations of the young generation, so that they are engaged.”
Indra Adhikari goes as far as to say that the concepts of “buffer state” and “vibrant bridge” have both failed and Nepal is neither. “We have had zero roles in mediating or de-escalating the tensions between India and China to call ourselves a buffer state. As a vibrant bridge, we cannot facilitate trade of the two countries. The new government should have researched and consulted more before proposing the same outdated and failed foreign policy concepts.”&nbsp;
What will be much more important for Prime Minister Shah is to continue Nepal’s traditional policy of ‘equidistance’ and convince his interlocutors that it is not an anti-Indian stance.&nbsp;
“At a time when there is increased interest of big powers in Nepal, we need to do a bit of our own homework for the systemic reforms we want,” says Akanshya Shah. “As for India, we first need to clearly define what we want on connectivity, energy and culture. But most importantly, we have to capitalise on the goodwill of India which we haven’t been able to in the past.”
Adds Indra Adhikari: “When it comes to fundamental aspects of foreign policy that ensures and enhances the well being of our citizens, national parties should all have one unified voice that doesn’t change when the government does. Only then the future generations can own it.”

Love thy neighbours (and America)

Prime Minister Balendra Shah sought written clarification from Home Minister Sudan Gurung following news of his investment in two companies linked to controversial Nepali business figures Sulav Agrawal and Deepak Bhatt, who are currently at the centre of a Rs3.7 billion money laundering investigation.
Home Minister Gurung's secretariat said that it has responded to the PM and submitted a written explanation. This comes after Home Minister Sudan Gurung issued a public clarification about the new developments regarding his investments on Monday.&nbsp;
Gurung is listed as a founding shareholder of two micro-insurance companies Star Micro Insurance and Liberty Micro Life, having acquired shares amounting to Rs2.5 million. The two companies are said to have been issued their licence by the Nepal Insurance Authority at the behest of Bhatt and Agrawal. Family members and close aides of both Bhatt and Agrawal have stakes in the two companies.&nbsp;
Bhatt, chairman of Infinity Holdings, is a power broker accused of using his political connections to secure and manipulate public procurement contracts, influence policy changes ass well as leadership appointments to regulatory institutions including the Securities Board of Nepal and Nepal Insurance Authority.&nbsp;
Meanwhile, Shanker Group vice-chair Sulav Agrawal was also arrested earlier this month as part of a broader money laundering probe as well as an investigation into the group’s finances. Agrawal was previously arrested during the Covid-19 pandemic after he was found selling &nbsp;67 infrared thermometers from a vehicle with diplomatic credentials. At the time, Bhatt is said to have used his connections to facilitate Agrawal’s release.&nbsp;
Critics have raised concerns the lack of detailed disclosures on Gurung’s part about investments tied to the very figures that his Home Ministry is in charge of investigating. There are also questions as to the source of his investment, which Gurung said in his clarification were raised through loans.
In his clarification, Gurung denied concealing his investments, saying that his shares in the two companies are part of in his over Rs20 million portfolio included in his asset disclosure and insisting the misunderstanding is because of how the shares have been categorised. &nbsp;
On his name and portfolio being associated with controversial figures, he responded, ‘There are hundreds to thousands of shareholders in a company. Buying shares does not constitute a partnership with anyone.’&nbsp;
He continued: ‘If that is the basis, then everyone with investments in those companies must be held accountable, which is not fair. Investments in the companies include those from media houses and banks. Are they all guilty?’
Leaders within the RSP have called for internal investigation into Sudan Gurung, to maintain the party’s platform of clean governance and transparency.&nbsp;
This comes after the sacking of Labour Minister Dipak Sah earlier this month after the RSP found him to be in breach of the party code of conduct following the reappointment of his wife to the Health insurance board. Sah was not given the opportunity for clarification prior to his departure.&nbsp;
Critics have said that the party is reverting to the patronage-driven politics of previous leadership following the appointment of figures close to RSP leadership in various key positions.
Many influential business owners elected to the House with direct stakes in the business, finance, tourism, and infrastructure sectors sit in Parliamentary Committees that would directly benefit their interests. &nbsp;
On Monday, RSP appointed Bhupdev Shah, who previously was a part of Balen Shah’s secretariat during his tenure as Kathmandu Mayor, as the party’s general secretary. Some have questioned the party’s decision to appoint Shah without going through an election process in its upcoming general convention.&nbsp;
Shah’s appointment comes as there is increased public attention over members of the Prime Minister’s inner circle being appointed to key advisory positions as well as to head governance reform committees.

roger-bilham

AIN’T SEEN NOTHING YET

Past disasters foretold

Home Minister Sudan Gurung resigns

When Aura meets Audit

Love thy neighbours (and America)

PM seeks clarification from HM