Sometimes, we need to take a step back to realise what a tectonic movement Nepali politics witnessed this month.
In a region and world ruled by elected authoritarians, Nepalis &nbsp;went to the ballot box freely to express a collective will for change.
These faces in this group photo of the RSP’s 180 freshly-minted MPs at the ballroom of the Royal Tulip Hotel on Wednesday is symbolic of what Nepal has come through.&nbsp;
The ship of state righted itself after the September Storm, installing an interim government that held an election within six months in which voters banished obsolete politicians and their parties into oblivion.
Nepalis, fed up with the inept kakistocracy of the past three decades, took the country into a post-ideological phase — replacing Marxists, Maoists and monarchists &nbsp;with a belief in a new governing culture that rewards delivery and accountability. And they have trusted the RSP to carry it through.
Nepal’s history has never been linear, it jerks ahead in lurches. The polity also tends to take one step forward and two steps back, so the public’s great expectations is tempered by a sense of cautious optimism and guarded pessimism.
This could be the great leap forward that Nepalis have waited for and deserve, but it could also be a Gramscian interregnum in which the old is dead and the new is not yet born. We will have to wait to see whether this transitional period will also see ‘morbid symptoms’.
As disruptor-in-chief, it was the Balendra Shah ‘wave’ or ‘craze’ that propelled the RSP to power. The former Kathmandu mayor needed a party platform, and the RSP’s tainted leader Rabi Lamichhane required a booster. Nepal's voters were looking for a saviour.
Personality-wise Shah and Lamichhane are poles apart: one is Type B and the other Type A. One is enigmatic, the other phlegmatic. But yin and yang do also tend to complement each other.&nbsp;
Kathmandu’s chattering class is already making self-fulfilling prophecies about the two falling out, and are fishing for hints that they already have. Shah’s absence from the RSP’s orientation this week was taken as a clue.&nbsp;
Closing the two-day tutorial on Wednesday, Lamichhane delivered a fiery 30-minute speech that laid out the RSP’s main agenda: to function differently from the old parties, serve the people, avoid middlemen, become true lawmakers without taking the law into their own hands.&nbsp;
“The old political parties contributed to history, we will build the future with a new political contract with citizens,” he said, trying to rise over past controversies and his abrasive rhetoric to sound statesmanlike.&nbsp;
GIVE AND TAKE
Lamichhane is said to be in touch with the reclusive Shah to announce a compact cabinet next week. Its composition will be an indication of how much give-and-take there was, and whether the criteria for selecting ministers is competence or loyalty.
Will RSP ministers behave like rulers or service providers? The new government will dive right into the economic fallout of the West Asia war with soaring fuel &nbsp;prices, inflation and uncertainty about remittance inflows.
On Thursday, Gagan Thapa resigned as NC chair, taking moral responsibility for the party’s election loss. The UML’s unrepentant K P Oli does not share the same sentiment about who is responsible for his own party’s historic downfall.&nbsp;
NCP chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal, who was luckier than his cross-party cohort, is now a comparative relic in a Parliament largely comprised of freshmen and sophomore lawmakers.
But the NC, UML and NCP still control provincial and most municipal governments. The old parties could try to make things difficult for the RSP at the centre, but it is also an opportunity for them to clean up their act ahead of local elections next year.&nbsp;
Another test for the RSP will be dealing with a heavily-politicised klepto-bureaucracy which has to frontend its policy decisions. &nbsp;

Kunda Dixit

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People’s power

This week, the RSP held a two-day closed orientation camp for its newly elected members of Parliament. The party has also decided to assign parliamentary and Cabinet roles to leaders only after the new MPs are sworn in on 28 March.&nbsp;
This means the new prime minister and his cabinet of 15 ministers are likely to be installed closer to the Nepali New Year, and the expectation is that it will also usher in a new era of governance and politics in Nepal.&nbsp;
Between now and then, there is much speculation regarding who will become new ministers and from which camp—Balendra Shah's or Rabi Lamichanne’s. Meanwhile, the final argument in the petition against the Rabi Lamichanne case revision is set for Thursday, with a verdict expected on the same day.
“In the past, parties did anything to form coalitions and to keep them from splitting ministries and appointing anyone they wanted to, even going against the spirit of the Constitution, but the RSP doesn’t need to partake in any such activities,” says political analyst Indra Adhikari.
Adhikari notes that governance failures in the past was often the result of coalition governments formed through political bargaining that meant the primary party often had to compromise on their agenda.&nbsp;
“But nothing is stopping the party from fulfilling its election manifesto,” she says. “And if they aren’t able to deliver, we know Nepalis are prone to protests, so another revolt is also a possibility.”
Journalist and author Mohan Mainali agrees that the everyday Parliamentary proceedings should go smoothly for new government because of their majority.&nbsp;
But there are questions as to what a near two-thirds majority allows the RSP to achieve in Parliament. Its 182 seats in the Lower House allows the party to enact and amend laws without hurdles and bypass Upper House’s request for Bill revisions. But the RSP has no presence in the National Assembly, and that means that its majority in the Lower House is not enough to amend the Constitution.&nbsp;
“The Constitution poses no obstacles for the RSP to work on improving governance, development and delivery,” says Mainali. &nbsp;“If they do show some performance, it will be easier for them to go into the next election and ask for a two-thirds majority to also amend the constitution,” he adds.
The last coalition government of the UML and Nepali Congress before the GenZ protests had been built upon a primary agreement to make amendments to the Constitution. So, depending on the nature of amendments, the RSP might find some support within the National Assembly at a time when some of the older parties, such as the Nepali Congress, have committed to supporting the new government as well as internal party reforms.
“What we need is a structural overhaul, from our laws and foreign policy to economy and security apparatus, and for this the RSP needs to champion collaboration and consultation for the sake of nation building,” says Indra Adhikari. “So it all comes down to the understanding and judgment of the RSP’s leadership. If they try to go at it alone, it will lead nowhere.”
To be sure, the provincial government could also clean up their act before the next local and provincial elections, which would help the older parties to regain some of their lost footing and rebuild trust.
As it stands, RSP lawmakers will also have to learn to work with each other. Mainali notes that the RSP not being bound by one clear ideology might lead to future problems, including the rumoured animosity between party president Rabi Lamichhane and prime minister-in-waiting Balendra Shah.
“Parties that came before the RSP had an ideology, whether they followed them or not, but the RSP is made of different kinds of people,” says Mainali. “If they are not motivated by a common goal of achieving something tangible in the next five years, it might be difficult for them to stay together.”
Adds Adhikari: “Balendra and Rabi don’t seem to be compatible. Rabi has already failed when it comes to the matters of governance, and Balendra won’t carry that burden. Additionally, there is a struggle between the two in terms of party hierarchy.”
Speaking at the closing of the two-day orientation, from which Balendra Shah was noticably absent, Rabi Lamichanne said that the RSP’s image as intolerant needs to be changed, and that the country is not heading towards totalitarianism but is in the hands of good, new people.
Regardless of the assurance, the general public has seen Balendra Shah and Lamichanne’s disposition in the last several years, and analysts are worried that their personalities and ambition might lead to an environment of increased intolerance.&nbsp;
As it stands in absence of a strong opposition, the responsibility falls on the media and the civil society to be the watchdog and play an effective check and balance role.&nbsp;
“Seeing how Balendra has ignored the media so far and Rabi has made inflammatory remarks in the past, they are probably more intolerant than the likes of Trump and Modi,” says Mainali. He notes that the party does not just have technical human resource and cyber army but a large number of dedicated supporters.&nbsp;
The media must thus continue to build trust by highlighting good work, educating the public on the importance of impartial journalism in democracy and debate any Bill purposed in Parliament, Mainali adds.&nbsp;
Says Adhikari: “The media should praise the government when they do well, motivate them, but it should also point out wrongdoings without fear, and provide recommendations to do better. Otherwise, absolute power corrupts absolutely, which we have seen happen happen in America with Trump and in India with Modi, where extremism has taken over and democracy has been curtailed.”

Sonia Awale

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Balancing act

Amidst the euphoria in Nepal about the RSP’s landslide victory, the party’s future government, possibly led by Balendra Shah will plunge headlong into an energy and economic crisis sparked by the war in West Asia. Nepal gets all its diesel, petrol, gas and aviation fuel from India and lacks a strategic stockpile to buffer against shortages. The United States has unsanctioned Russian crude oil to India for one month, but India will only export refined petroleum products to Nepal after meeting its own domestic demand. As it is, India has only 10 days of stockpile of cooking gas and it is giving preference to household use. Energy experts say new oil and gas supplies from Russia and elsewhere will take another month to arrive at Indian ports. “This conflict didn’t develop overnight, yet we did nothing to augment our reserves. Clearly, we didn’t manage procurement anticipating supply disruptions,” says economist Pushkar Bajracharya. The conflict has escalated, seriously disrupting global petroleum supplies. Nearly 20% of the world’s oil and gas moves out of the Strait of Hormuz which is now blocked. The Persian Gulf makes up most of the oil and liquified natural gas supplied to Japan (75%), India (50%) and China (38%). Crude oil prices have nearly doubled to $100 a barrel this week.&nbsp; “This crisis is only going to intensify, so in the short term, it means fuel prices will increase as will the cost of goods and services,” adds Bajracharya. “This doesn’t bode well for the new government, especially when people have such high expectations from it.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260315020356_e9f97cc4e8a41bab08fb9c318be887a7eef5ac674326a9a1c878fd80109c3ec7.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260315020356_e9f97cc4e8a41bab08fb9c318be887a7eef5ac674326a9a1c878fd80109c3ec7" data-rendition-name="original" width="1315" height="801" loading="lazy" alt="Strait of Hormuz NT"> </figure>  Fuel stoppages from India have happened before, notably during the 2015 Blockade. But Nepal could be better placed this time to cushion the shock because of the proliferation of battery-operated vehicles, and electrification of household cooking to some extent. “The increase in electric vehicles provides some relief, but it is not enough,” says energy economist and former Water Resources Minister Dipak Gyawali. “Most critical services still run on diesel, and they cannot be replaced overnight.”&nbsp; Nepal’s expanding road network means diesel and petrol consumption is also increasing. If the war drags on, there will be a critical shortage of aviation fuel that could also hurt tourism at the start of the trekking and mountaineering season. There is already a nationwide shortage of cooking gas which is used by 62% of Nepali households. &nbsp; The fuel crisis will have a knock-on effect on the economy which the RSP government will have to tackle on an emergency footing as soon as it comes into office. The priority would be to cap fuel prices with subsidies, control hoarding, and in the longer term expedite the switch to electricity for transportation and cooking.&nbsp; MONEY IN The other impact will be on jobs in West Asia and remittances. Nearly half the $11 billion a year Nepalis send home every year comes from West Asian countries. Nepal’s hard currency reserves have hit a record high $21.09 billion, but that cash will be of no use if there is no fuel to buy. A sharp drop in remittances due to the collapse of the economies of the Gulf states if the war is prolonged will have a multiplier impact particularly on Nepalis' household expenses and the country’s economy in general. This in turn will have a knock-on effect on investment, and affect the RSP government’s main agenda which is to create jobs at home. The vicious cycle will then mean that more Nepalis will want to migrate for overseas jobs, but options in the Gulf may not be available. The RSP’s ministers in government will have to come up with innovative ways to re-integrate Nepalis forced to return because they lose their jobs, or for safety reasons. There are nearly 2 million Nepalis across the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, and another 7,000 mainly women caregivers in Israel. “Other than the impact on remittances and the economy, there could be the additional challenge of rescuing over 2 million Nepalis in West Asia if it comes to that,” says Bajracharya. “We don’t have the resources, and we will have to rely on India’s logistical help.” The RSP’s main vote bank was among global Nepalis, who could not cast &nbsp;ballots themselves but influenced families and friends back home to choose the party. Social media was abuzz with slogans that promoted how choosing the RSP would bring their children back home from the Gulf. “The RSP got a majority, and that’s a good thing but voters came together to oppose UML, NC and the Maoists. But there is no clear ideology or philosophy, so while their slogan to bring Nepalis back from the Gulf sounds nice, what would they come back to?” asks Gyawali. The Nepali diaspora in the Gulf that influenced the electorate so effectively will now be looking at how the government it helped get to power in Kathmandu will help as war engulfs the region.&nbsp; There is an almost unrealistically high expectation of the RSP, and the party may not even get the customary 100-day honeymoon period. The cabinet could be put together easily enough, but the bureaucracy, judiciary, police, and the Upper House are all populated by loyalists of the old parties. Despite bad blood, the RSP will have to work together with all parties in the face of the crisis unleashed by the war. And Nepal’s politicised foreign policy must be galvanised to deal with the crisis.

Rough road ahead for new Nepal rulers

Jhapa today looks like the aftermath of a battlefield. Election posters and party flags droop along roads under a brooding overcast sky.
Yet, the mood is hopeful. This was the constituency where Nepal's history was made -- where a candidate promising a new future defeated one representing the old, failed ways.
Balendra Shah of the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) scored a decisive win here with 68,348 votes, defeating four-time former prime minister K P Oli of the UML who got only 18,734 votes.&nbsp;
The result caps a nationwide surge by the RSP, which is set to secure more than a two-thirds majority in the lower house of Parliament, signalling a fundamental realignment in Nepali politics away from traditional party structures toward personality-driven leadership.
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The Jhapa-5 victory marks a moment when Nepal’s political centre of gravity shifted from cadre-based party machinery to a youth-backed reform movement centred on former Kathmandu mayor Balendra Shah. For decades, Nepali elections have been powered by cadre-based party structures.&nbsp;
The UML enlisted 400 out of 450 voters of Barhasudi village in Gauriganj Rural Municipality 4 in a ceremony attended by K P Oli himself. However, the outcome showed the limited effectiveness of traditional structures in the current political environment, which favours digital outreach, youth networks, and personality-driven support.
A district-level UML cadre in Jhapa, who asked not to be named, admitted the limitations of traditional organisation: “We have the organisation down to every ward, but this time that did not matter as much. Voters were hostile during door-to-door campaigning. People were voting for Balen as a person, not for a party. Our cadres did their work, but the voter mood had changed.”
Traditional party loyalty alone may no longer be sufficient to secure electoral victory in Nepal. The Nepali Congress (NC) positioned Gagan Thapa as its prime-ministerial face, while the UML continued to campaign around Oli.&nbsp;
“What guaranteed the RSP’s success is that it had established itself as an alternative while positioning Balen Shah as the alternative for the PM post,” explains political analyst Bishnu Sapkota. Even a renewed NC under Gagan Thapa was burdened by the baggage of old politics because technically his party was only half-new.&nbsp;
Sapkota notes that Sher Bahadur Deuba had already sanctioned the party's PR list and other electoral processes; consequently, people saw nothing new in the Gagan-led NC because he had no time to lead it before the elections.&nbsp;
The parliamentary system does not allow voters to directly elect the prime minister, yet this election resembled a presidential-style contest centred on Balendra Shah.&nbsp;
The RSP’s campaign messaging framed the vote as a mandate to make Balendra Shah prime minister, effectively turning parliamentary ballots into a referendum on his leadership. The strategy proved effective: with a two-thirds majority in Parliament, Shah now has the numbers to lead the country for five years.&nbsp;
Nepal has drifted off unstable coalition-dominated politics. For many voters here, the logic was straightforward: elect enough RSP candidates and Shah becomes prime minister.&nbsp;
“I voted for Balen because I wanted the RSP to form a majority government and him to lead it,” says Jhapa-5 voter Ranjit Subedi. Shah attracted cadre-like loyalty without cadres, a follower base driven more by sentiment and aspiration than by party machinery.&nbsp;
Sapkota notes that personality-based politics is fairly new: “Rabi Lamichhane started this trend during the 2022 election as his popularity made the RSP the 4th largest party in Parliament last time.&nbsp;
Balen, on the other hand, has maintained an enigmatic aura that has captivated people to an extent that they do not enquire about his vision, which comes with its own risk of public disappointment if he fails to deliver.”
With a two-thirds majority, Shah has the parliamentary numbers for government stability, a rare achievement in Nepal coalition-dominated politics. Yet whether he can maintain the RSP’s unity and the youth movement’s enthusiasm for five years remains to be seen.&nbsp;
Sapkota warns: “This level of public support empowers a leader, as this is stronger than a mere formal electoral mandate, but it comes with the risk of the system being overridden by a superman-like figure.”
It is rare in the world and in Nepal that two top leaders compete in the same constituency. The only other example was back in 1991, when Madan Bhandari ran and won the seat in Kathmandu-5 against then Prime Minister Krishna Prasad Bhattarai. In Shah’s case, his bold decision to challenge K P Oli, as the face of the old establishment in his stronghold catapulted him to victory.&nbsp;
The Jhapa-5 victory represents more than a symbolic contest between Nepal’s political establishment and a rising, youth-backed reform movement. Following the state killing of GenZ protestors on 8 September, Oli’s political authority eroded fundamentally.&nbsp;
Damak-based journalist Sujan Gautam witnessed Oli’s declining popularity here post-September: “He would have lost to some other strong figure too.”&nbsp;
An judicial investigation committee led by Gauri Bahadur Karki formed to investigate the violence, deaths, and property damage on 8-9 September submitted its 900-plus page report to the interim government on Sunday. The report is said to recommend action against those found responsible, including Oli and members of his cabinet and security apparatus.
Santosh Dhimal, a GenZ voter from Damak, says: “K P Oli was not suitable to be our leader because he lied after ordering the shooting of people my age who were peacefully protesting.”
Prime Minister Sushila Karki has said her government will publish the main conclusions after reviewing it with the home ministry and cabinet.&nbsp;
Oli’s broader vulnerability here lay not just in the state’s response to GenZ protests, but also in representing an old political class that was cadre-heavy and ideologically bankrupt. Political analyst Bishnu Sapkota says, “Oli was the most visible face of the old corrupt political culture that Nepalis had grown to detest.”
This election result is not merely a party winning by a landslide, but a departure from the type of political culture that the old parties represented. Even if RSP does not deliver, society has moved on. The question is whether the 2026 election is a genuine transition, or merely a pendulum swing before the next disillusionment sets in.
Another Jhapa-5 constituent Ranjit Subedi acknowledged Oli’s historical contribution, but added: “A leader must know when to retire gracefully. He has done a lot for Jhapa-5 and the country during the Indian blockade but his time is over now.”

Jhapa-5 after its political earthquake

It took the September GenZ firestorm and public anger against non-performing actors for a 35-year-old structural engineer and rapper Balendra (Balen) Shah to oust Nepal’s four-time prime minister and former revolutionary.
The UML’s KP Oli has been trounced by 50,000 votes in his home turf, an area where he has won many elections in his 55-year political career. It is the same story across Nepal, where established politicians are being rejected by voters.
A 'Balen Wave' has swept the country, dyeing it in the RSP’s Blue party colour. But the UML and NC particularly did this to themselves.&nbsp;
An apology and a retirement after the September protests would have saved Oli some dignity, and given the rebranded UML a tiny bit of hope and perhaps a few more electoral wins.&nbsp;
Maybe he could have been remembered fondly as the funny old guy who made one last fatal political error, but now he will be defined by this defeat. Maintaining control and legitimacy in his own party will be hard too.&nbsp;
Contrary to his past combativeness and blaming nefarious foreign conspiracies, Oli gracefully conceded on Saturday, congratulating 'Balen Babu' &nbsp;and wishing him 'a successful five years'.
Balendra Shah and his RSP knew what they were doing. As of Sunday, it has won 118 and leads in 7 other constituencies, a lot of them with similarly wide margins of victory. RSP candidates have even beaten well regarded candidates like Gagan Thapa of the NC and Kulman Ghising of Ujyalo Nepal.&nbsp;

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Many including this paper questioned the RSP's strategy of choosing popular candidates over competence. But the point of an election is to win it, and there was a short campaign window to put it all together and the RSP pulled it off most successfully.&nbsp;
To be sure, the party should not get too much credit. Its manifesto was broad and bland, and no different than the other older parties.&nbsp;
A big part of the RSP ballots, maybe even most of it, were people voting against the old parties rather than for it. Many seemed to feel that this was coming, and perhaps even hoped for it.
There is also a sense of lingering cynicism. Nepal has had several revolutions and many new political starts and things always seem to end up in the same corrupt hopelessness. There is every possibility that the new RSP government will also go the same way.&nbsp;
The RSP is much bigger than Balendra Shah, although it was his popularity that made this victory possible. Its victory brings with it a sense of hope as all new things do.&nbsp;
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Not all party members who were elected are going to be as accountable or have integrity. Many of them have a chequered past, saw an opportunity in joining the RSP and took the risk.&nbsp;
What changed things were the events of September. Politicians saw firsthand that 'Power to the People' is not some abstract idea. Get too loose to it, forget that you are ruling and not serving, and you get booted out.&nbsp;
The interim Sushila Karki government deserve credit for delivering on its biggest mandate of holding the election in such a short time frame. The expectation at large was that the polls would be delayed or even scuttled.
In fact, a two-thirds RSP majority is a great opportunity to rethink the country’s political culture and institutionalise change. The point of the government in a democracy is to serve the people. Appointing non-political, competent people worked, at least in the short tenure of the interim government.&nbsp;
Adding layers of bureaucracy and committees and party politics along federal, provincial and local levels heaped resistance to the simple goal of making lives easier for the Nepali.&nbsp;
Nepal is getting a reboot, and the next few months will show whether the country is on the right track with its new generation government.

Vishad Raj Onta

Balen takes Jhapa and Nepal

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Nepal election live results

This is the 88th episode of Diaspora Diaries, a Nepali Times series in collaboration with Migration Lab providing a platform to share experiences of living, working and studying abroad. Chandra Gurung, Sierra Leone Six of us came to Nepal from Sierra Leone to vote for घण्टी of the RSP. But the six votes were wasted because of the crisis in the Gulf and delayed flights. We arrived the day after the election.&nbsp; The morning we were supposed to fly out, we found out our flight was cancelled, so we had to postpone by four days to figure out an alternate route. Luckily, we did not get stranded in the Gulf like many others. Even though I missed the election, I now look forward to spending time with my family especially to help my children with their studies as their exams are approaching. I am happy because it looks like we will get the outcome we desired and came to Nepal for. Stability is Nepal's most urgent need. If the government is stable and works for five years, they might be able to build change.&nbsp; Fighting corruption, quality education and job creation should be the priority for the new government. We had already advised our families to give the new party a chance. Despite being a new party, the RSP has been able to win the hearts of people. Well-educated people with professional backgrounds have joined the party even though they might not have experience in politics. I first left Nepal in 2008, I am still abroad, and I do not know when I will return. I need to save. I want to see this new government create the conditions to bring us back. In these 18 years, I have not felt like returning. My goal is to make sure I can provide good opportunities to my children. I miss home, going overseas is only to make a living.&nbsp; Suraj Bhandari, Korea I had timed my vacation to vote for Nepal. In our discussions back in Korea, the GenZ protest made those of us overseas want to vote for and bring change. Whichever party it was, we wanted a new one. I had also told my family that if I was unable to arrange my vacation around the election, they should consider voting for new candidates.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260307020344_ebd90331e37dd1c6d37c4d1e35fe58eefcbf1923894cf397aafb7a81b887d63f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260307020344_ebd90331e37dd1c6d37c4d1e35fe58eefcbf1923894cf397aafb7a81b887d63f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="900" loading="lazy" alt="Nepali migrants in Korea"> </figure>  We have seen what the old parties have done for the country, they had their chance which they wasted.&nbsp; Leaving Nepal feels different because this time, I am leaving with the hope that Nepal will soon be worth returning to. What I realised after migrating is that when you are away, you have even more love for your country. We overseas youth know the pain of being away and wanted to vote for change.&nbsp; If you earn one lakh abroad, you are willing to work for half that amount back home so you can be with your family. Next time when I come back to Nepal, I want to be able to come for good and not just on vacation. I leave with hope. I hope to return to start my business in Nepal.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260307020344_e835553553e201610afabafa73827a8b7e56d05a6b86c14721f3080d3d5a730f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260307020344_e835553553e201610afabafa73827a8b7e56d05a6b86c14721f3080d3d5a730f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="900" loading="lazy" alt="Korea migrant worker"> </figure>  Investing here in a small business is very risky and I hope that changes. I think we have done our part, now it is up to the new government to do its part. They have five years to deliver and if they don’t, we will again have to look for change. I hope history won't repeat itself. When the Maoists came to power, they had brought a similar sense of hope and people believed them and voted. They started off well initially but failed to deliver. I hope that won't happen with घण्टी. Rajendra Kunjeda, Belgium Those of us overseas have attachments back home. But because of the Gulf crisis I was not able to make it on time for the election.&nbsp; When I talk to colleagues in Belgium, the broad consensus among us Nepalis was that we should give the new party a chance. The expectation from the new government is that we need a way out of the rut the country is in. That is what the election was about.&nbsp; When you live in a developed country, you also hope the same for your country. Transformation takes time, but I hope for the best. Not all the old guard was bad, and not all the new guard will be good either. But the new government has to take the country towards development. The expectation is not for overnight change.&nbsp; I was lucky to get a scholarship to study in Europe and have now started working. My degree in agricultural science is relevant for Nepal and the world – you need food to live.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260307020344_1b419bdc71ea6b2b307d5cace49112f976757949b64323fea282986e11231b55.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260307020344_1b419bdc71ea6b2b307d5cace49112f976757949b64323fea282986e11231b55" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="900" loading="lazy" alt="Nepalis in Denmark"> </figure>  I felt bad about not making it on time for the election because I was so excited. Not everyone can return, but what the diaspora wants is evident from social media posts and conversations. I did not influence my parents back home because it is their right to vote for whoever they wanted.&nbsp; During the GenZ movement, the deaths of the students were devastating, but it has also made it clear that the nation is desperate for change. It was an outcome of trying to suppress the change that youth desired.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260307020348_3fa02333f99ff131e84e31c2e990aa40fc1797913b5e6625a18f86d40649ddfa.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20260307020348_3fa02333f99ff131e84e31c2e990aa40fc1797913b5e6625a18f86d40649ddfa" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Gen Z movement"> </figure>  In Nepal, I have worked with returnees who came back during Covid-19 to see how their skills can be productively utilised in Nepal. There is a lot of potential there which the government needs to prioritise.&nbsp; I have not decided whether to stay overseas or return to Nepal. If day-to-day life and bureaucracy were easier, it would be better. When I am assured that I can sustain myself and get a sense of satisfaction in Nepal, I will consider returning. I need to feel confident in Nepal, feel ढुक्क that if I work hard both I and the country will benefit. This requires a collaborative approach. The Blue sweep means we are on the right path. Sudip Khanal, Denmark I was coming from Denmark to vote. My wife and I left on 28 February but we were stuck for eight days in Istanbul. I was coming to vote for change. I am happy to see that Blue is winning. Even though I did not get to vote, I am glad the country is getting the change it needed.&nbsp; I first went to Denmark in 2022, starting as a student and after graduation I am working. The Nepal embassy in Copenhagen has made things easier to deal with immigration stuff but for a wider population across the world especially the Gulf I also wish the embassies did more.&nbsp; This time our government was not proactive in supporting Nepalis stranded overseas due to the Gulf crisis. Our main wish is that the new government creates new opportunities at home. Education, healthcare and jobs should be the biggest priorities.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260307020344_a774a87b087d49498900728988049634956e8286a61923d9a8cd0de2fafa49ea.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20260307020344_a774a87b087d49498900728988049634956e8286a61923d9a8cd0de2fafa49ea" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="900" loading="lazy" alt="Belgoum Nepali migrant"> </figure>  If I could earn up to Rs80,000 back home I would return. I studied business in Denmark but I don’t yet have the guts to return. I am worried about whether there will be a return on investment here and there are no jobs to fall back to. Abroad, I can work for someone else even if I cannot start my own business. I hope change will now come. But this will not happen quickly. All of us back in Denmark supported change. We wanted to come as a group but many students faced constraints like exams or classes. I had no holidays but after the GenZ protests I did not want to waste my vote. Unfortunately, I was not able to return in time but I convinced my parents to give घण्टी a chance for the RSP. Let’s see how things go. ANONYMOUS, Dubai I lived in Dubai for five and a half years, returned to Nepal for a year, and then remigrated two years ago. It was convenient that my holidays and the election coincided.&nbsp; The new government should provide proper job opportunities back home. There are 4-5 people in a house, you need at least Rs50,000 to live comfortably in Nepal. When someone is sick, where can we go?&nbsp; Companies abroad are not always good about leave. You are promised something here, and get another job abroad. Embassies do not always listen to us, like the Philippine embassy.&nbsp; People get tired and give up.&nbsp; I am updating election results on my phone but I am more worried about my flight which is likely to be cancelled because of the situation in the Gulf. The airline just says ‘it is not cancelled till now’, but they do not tell you when you can fly.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260307020348_399b70503f4e25a35e21574985d0d188285b457c38534ae6d95b35e4546b5683.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20260307020348_399b70503f4e25a35e21574985d0d188285b457c38534ae6d95b35e4546b5683" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="900" loading="lazy" alt="Nepali migrants"> </figure>  I paid Rs5,000 to come here from Dhanusa just to be told there are no flights. It is simple things like this that need improvement. We have watched politicians for many years and they kept youth unemployed. How can you love any government that has killed kids?&nbsp; The new ones say they will do something, lets see. Foreign labour migration has helped me. I cannot earn even Rs10,000 a month in my village. How will I support my children? If I go, I can send them money. My family is happy. I work hard for them. If my दुख्ख keeps 4-5 people in my family सुख्ख it is all right, isn’t it?

The diaspora and Nepal's Blue Sweep

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

The magic 138

K P Oli of the UML is trying not to fall from a precarious tight rope, Gagan Thapa is busy mending his NC party, while the RSP’s Balendra Shah is bungee jumping off the bridge in this cartoon (above) made exclusively for Nepali Times by artist Anup Tamu.&nbsp;
This post-GenZ movement election is a contest between a stale past, and the promise of a fresh start. The post-1990 politics saw instability, polarisation, an insurgency, a royal coup that briefly brought back the absolute monarchy, and will now be replaced with a new, accountable political culture.&nbsp;
At least that is the hope.
The old is represented by 75-year-old Oli who was deposed after the 8-9 September upheaval. Challenging him directly in his own constituency of Jhapa-5 is Shah, the popular former mayor of&nbsp;
Kathmandu. If informal polls are right, Shah and the RSP are set to win. That means this is ultimately going to be a contest between&nbsp;
Balendra Shah and Gagan Thapa, the new leader of the grand old party.
This election came down to a personality clash between &nbsp;personality cults. Most are voting for the prime minister of a party, not for the party of a future prime minister. Below are profiles of the three prime ministerial hopefuls:
K P Oli&nbsp;
The comeback kid. Forced to resign and flee after disastrously banning social media in September, yet here he is, back again, elected chair of the UML for the third time in a row. &nbsp;
The UML party line is that those protests were fuelled not by genuine frustration with the leadership, but by bad actor infiltrators. The election is between those who want to build the nation and those who want to burn it down, Oli says.&nbsp;
It seems unlikely that after the September upheaval, the country will allow Oli Ba a return to the office he was forced to vacate. Yet his longevity is undeniable, despite two kidney translpants.
Oli started at age 18 in the radical Communist underground in eastern Nepal in the early 1970s. He spent 14 years in prison, emerged in 1987, and became a central committee member of the UML, served as Home Minister, and was known for his oratory.
He became prime minister for the first time in 2015, opposing India’s unofficial blockade and making trade deals with China. He was adept at playing the nationalist card, and pushed for the adoption of the Nepal map that included disputed Limpiyadhura, riling New Delhi no end.
Oli has been prime minister four times, which is also how many kidneys there are in his body. Tons of experience in age and at the very top of Nepali politics is certainly what he has over both Gagan Thapa and Balendra Shah. This is a negative too because he represents obsolete politics.&nbsp;
Oli defended his multiple premiership: “I have been PM for a total of five years. How come nobody gets a headache when neighbouring countries have been leaders for 15 years? How come other 80-year-old leaders are not criticised?”&nbsp;
Oli has a sharp tongue and a wicked sense of humour that often gets him into trouble. He is prone to hyperbole and weaving fantasies, making him the target of ridicule. Over the years, he has promised ocean-going ships on the Kosi, gas pipelines, supercomputers, and rapid airport development, with zero follow-through.&nbsp;
Oli developed a thin skin towards the end of his tenure, squeezing the press and social media. He has chosen not to issue any apology or accept accountability for the 8 September massacre. His own party has gone along with this delusion, but now the people will have their say.&nbsp;
Gagan Thapa&nbsp;
Of the three prime ministerial hopefuls, Gagan Thapa of the NC would seem to be the ideal compromise of old and new, youth and experience. Starting as a student activist, he has had an extensive political career, and is an anti-monarchist who has seen stints in jail.&nbsp;
Thapa was elected to the first Constituent Assembly in 2008 and has since always been an MP. As health minister in 2016-17, he introduced Nepal’s first health insurance scheme. Almost 50 now, Thapa can no longer claim to be a Young Turk, although he is still 25 years younger than Oli.&nbsp;
Thapa has waited patiently for his day in the limelight, and sensed his time had come after the GenZ movement. He seized the NC leadership from Sher Bahadur Deuba, becoming president unopposed during a ‘special’ general convention. Deuba seems to still be in shock after a near-lynching and the burning down of his house. &nbsp;
Contesting from Sarlahi and not his usual Kathmandu constituency, Thapa has launched an extensive campaign on the ground and on social media. Much of this focuses on a rebranding of his party as Nepali Congress 2.0. He is also making a distinction between a reformed NC and newbies in the RSP, but is facing a stiff challenge in Sarlahi-4 from former NC member Amresh Singh who defected to the RSP.
He is one of few politicians who use social media effectively. After the September protests, even when his house was burnt down, he spoke directly into a camera to say sorry on behalf of his party. “Our core values are still the same: democracy, social justice, democracy,” he said.&nbsp;
No more coalitions that go against principles, no more corruption, judge us by performance and not speeches, Thapa has said. Idealistic, but can he pull it off in a party so rooted in the old ways of doing things?
Thapa’s heart seems to be in the right place. As MP he has spoken up against his party’s aging leadership, and in favour of the right to free expression. He represents the voting block that is tired of the old, but sceptical of the new.
Balendra Shah
‘Rapper/Structural Engineer/Kathmandu Metropolitan Ex Mayor’ reads the TikTok bio of @balenshah. Balendra Shah could not be more unconventional as a Nepali politician.&nbsp;
He is running a brave gambit, choosing to contest Jhapa-5 and challenge K P Oli in his home turf. If Shah wins, it will be quite a statement from voters. What a blow to Oli, and all of the legacy parties. The apt bell symbol of his RSP is sounding the alarm.&nbsp;
Despite his rapper background, Shah’s campaign so far has been scanty with words. He has chosen to partake in aurafarming — in one video he pilots a boat in Udaypur, in another he drives on a rural road. Many posts position him as a family man.&nbsp;
Unlike Gagan Thapa, Shah has few videos that speak directly to the voting public. And he never spoke to the press while mayor and on the campaign trail. There were sarcastic comments after his recent campaign address, one feigning surprise: “He speaks!”
This is carefully curated brand-building, along with the trademark beard and sunglasses. With a ‘Balen Craze’ sweeping the country, his thinking perhaps is: ‘The less I say, the less chance that I mess up.’
And he has messed up in impulsive social media posts since deleted (page 10-11) in which he heaped abuse at India, China and the US. He also once threatened to burn down Singha Darbar after being stopped by traffic police.&nbsp;
Shah has been campaigning not just in Jhapa but all over the country, trying to establish his credentials as a national leader. At a speech in Itahari this week, he vowed to solve problems of agriculture, tourism, sports, and connectivity.&nbsp;
It was a weak speech, lacking focus, much stuttering, superficial, and without the powerful tone of Thapa or Oli. However, the crowd was engaged and loved every minute of it. Shah’s supporters have made up their minds.&nbsp;
As Kathmandu mayor, Shah got mixed reviews. Many were outraged by his crackdown on street vendors and squatters, and his flashy attempts to beautify Kathmandu were seen to be performative. Budget spending was one of the lowest among metropolitan cities, yet the public perception is that Kathmandu is cleaner and better managed.&nbsp;
If Shah looks to succeed and last in Nepal’s politics, and perhaps as prime minister, he would have to conduct himself in a much more diplomatic and transparent manner.&nbsp;
To some, he is a populist and too new to be taken seriously. Others are skeptical about him joining the RSP, with all of the scandals of its leaders.&nbsp;
But as the elected mayor of Kathmandu, and holding on to the position for four years, he has proven that at least he has initiative and effectiveness. &nbsp;

OLD vs NEW vs NEW

The RSP and its prime minister are being sworn in this week after gaining an unprecedented election victory. This is a welcome change for many Nepalis who see it as a remedy to decades of coalition instability.&nbsp; Yet Nepal’s political history suggests otherwise. No majority government has ever completed its full term. This reveals a deeper structural problem: weakly institutionalised parties dominated by personalities rather than ideas. 1951: Dissatisfaction with the oppressive Rana regime among the educated elite led to the creation of political parties like the Nepali Congress (NC), Praja Parishad (later merged into the Nepali Congress), Gorkha Parishad, and the Nepal Communist Party.&nbsp; They emerged secretly, mainly in India during the height of that country’s independence. They organised a successful armed uprising against the Rana rule.&nbsp; 1959: The NC won a two-thirds supermajority in the first general election. Within a year, King Mahendra staged a coup and established the partyless absolute monarchy called the Panchayat system.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260322130332_a416ab5703287898f0566dc6d2a6b95d797ce2f4ed55bffcfae2e8edc7737c5e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260322130332_a416ab5703287898f0566dc6d2a6b95d797ce2f4ed55bffcfae2e8edc7737c5e" data-rendition-name="original" width="675" height="849" loading="lazy" alt="Mahendra and BP"> </figure>  1991: After the People’s Movement, the ban on parties was lifted and Nepal became a constitutional monarchy. Elections were held under a new Constitution and the NC won 110 out of 205 seats, joining the United Leftist Front which functioned as a loose coalition.&nbsp; Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala’s first term ended with his resignation due to infighting, particularly with Ganesh Man Singh, who accused him of <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/2645025" target="_blank">“emerging as a dictator, downgrading democratic norms and values, and even selling out national interests.”</a> Parliament was dissolved and the NC ended up losing the ensuing elections. 1994: Following the NC’s defeat, a <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/2645025" target="_blank">hung parliament emerged</a> with the UML forming a minority government that lasted only nine months before collapsing after a no-confidence vote, allowing a NC-led coalition to return to power.&nbsp; 1999: Voters gave the NC a second chance and the party won 111 out of 205 seats. The party was divided between supporters of Koirala and Krishna Prasad Bhattarai, who became prime minister. &nbsp;The internal NC power struggle intensified and Koirala became prime minister again only to face bribery scandals, the Maoist insurgency, and the royal massacre.&nbsp; In 2001, under growing pressure from both the public and the party, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2001/07/20/world/nepal-premier-resigns-caught-in-chaos-after-royal-blood-bath.html" target="_blank">Koirala was forced to resign</a> to be replaced by Sher Bahadur Deuba. The party eventually split into Koirala’s NC and Deuba’s NC (Democratic). &nbsp;In this chaos, king Gyanendra dissolved the parliament and assumed executive powers.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260322130332_e107b95de5641044f72a13fd20f417d16b9a2d1ecbae3492126ee5fd4244bd84.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20260322130332_e107b95de5641044f72a13fd20f417d16b9a2d1ecbae3492126ee5fd4244bd84" data-rendition-name="original" width="1250" height="753" loading="lazy" alt="Deuba and Girija"> </figure>  2017: This was the first election under the federal constitution. The UML and Maoists created a surprise pre-electoral alliance, breaking the Maoist coalition with the NC. The left alliance won a massive victory with the UML winning 121 seats and the Maoists 53 seats. Prime Minister K P Oli fell out with Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoists. The House was dissolved, with the UML itself breaking into factions. What followed was seven shaky coalition governments in eight years.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260322130352_8b09b374d7fcb811e0a652c7f60b30eea4b9052a19ed3d768ba8ca9aaeb4dec7.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20260322130352_8b09b374d7fcb811e0a652c7f60b30eea4b9052a19ed3d768ba8ca9aaeb4dec7" data-rendition-name="original" width="667" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Oli and Prachanda"> </figure>  2022: The RSP was formed only four months prior to elections, but managed to become the fourth-largest party. In this month’s &nbsp;election, the RSP won a commanding parliamentary majority by presenting itself to the electorate as different from the discredited old parties.&nbsp; The RSP leadership structure is largely personality-driven and opaque. Party leader Rabi Lamichhane joined the governing coalition with the Maoists and UML securing four ministerial positions. Lamichhane became Home Minister and Deputy Prime Minister, using his swing vote to be the kingmaker party in the coalition. Lamichhane was embroiled in various scandals which he blamed on political vendetta. There was internal dissent within the party and among supporters who felt the coalition betrayed RSP’s founding ideals.&nbsp; Lamichhane <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2023/02/key-ally-quits-government-in-nepal/" target="_blank">reportedly</a> bypassed the party’s internal mechanisms, unilaterally deciding to pull out of the government without broad consultation.&nbsp; The youth-led September protests gave the RSP an opportunity to represent GenZ aspirations, and its popularity was cemented after Balendra Shah joined the party as a prime ministerial candidate.&nbsp; With its dramatic election victory, there is a question whether the &nbsp;party can separate itself from its two leaders, and have internal democracy. Or will it just be a vessel for new political elites to continue staying in power?&nbsp; ‘BALEN PARTY’ The RSP has increasingly relied on the same tactics that the NC once used in its heyday. Backed by Balendra Shah’s meteoric rise to fame, the RSP is called ‘The Balen Party’. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/cyberia/rsp-s-pr-list-is-not-good-pr" target="_blank">RSP’s PR list</a> includes celebrities, actors, singers, pageant winners, business personalities, and athletes to maximise visibility and public appeal. Many of these soon-to-be MPs have little to no experience working in government, or together as a team. Which is perhaps why they needed a two-day orientation last week. In today’s attention economy, political currency depends on visibility. This is why the RSP’s strategy to harness Shah’s popularity was necessary to secure victory, while Shah needed a political platform for the election.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260322130348_abd1522a1f4f8ad4a0861c3916d86bd9688deafc7c44081b976378405d2b8e39.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20260322130348_abd1522a1f4f8ad4a0861c3916d86bd9688deafc7c44081b976378405d2b8e39" data-rendition-name="original" width="900" height="900" loading="lazy" alt="Balen and Rabi"> </figure>  Political parties are essential for a democracy, but when they &nbsp;revolve around one dominant leader, internal institutions become weak, and decision-making becomes centralised in the leader rather than in party committees, rules, or ideological platforms.&nbsp; This is exactly what led to the downfall of the NC and the UML. Both over the years were ridden with inter- and intra-party strife and failed the electorate. RSP must take a lesson from this and unite to institutionalise beyond its two personalities. Or it will suffer the same fate as the legacy parties. Since its inception, RSP has espoused a populist and anti-establishment agenda. The ‘new’ RSP with the Balendra brand gained massive support by being a clear ‘other’.&nbsp; The RSP can fall into the same trap as the NC and the UML by defining itself by what it is not, rather than what it is for. Beyond the external enemies they oppose, these parties often struggle to articulate what they actually stand for.&nbsp; RSP positions itself as an alternative to established parties — a pragmatic, results-oriented political force rather than one driven by traditional ideologies. However,<a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/theorizing-in-comparative-politics/parties-and-ideology/8386083191B53EC86A239B8852D4A6A6" target="_blank"> ideology gives a party identity and direction.</a> Without ideological grounding, RSP risks becoming a hollow vessel for power-chasing politicians who oppose each other’s every move, a story that is all too familiar.&nbsp; RSP can no longer define itself as being anti-establishment. It is now the establishment.&nbsp; While RSP might look like Congress 2.0 to many who have seen Nepal’s democratic trajectory, RSP does differ from past majority parties in both positive and negative ways.&nbsp; Times have also changed. Nepal is no longer a monarchy, literacy rates are much higher, social media has made information more accessible, and Nepalis are less forgiving, as seen by the events that transpired on 8-9 September 2025.&nbsp; The RSP has fielded more qualified candidates, and they could steer the country in the right direction. Many are experts in their fields and have had years of experience prior to joining politics. Having experts from such different backgrounds is a huge asset.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260322130352_426011e8c377bffcef6fcb4371325b36fb940eb5a8ab66d3c76ff5cf6f1943c7.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20260322130352_426011e8c377bffcef6fcb4371325b36fb940eb5a8ab66d3c76ff5cf6f1943c7" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1066" loading="lazy" alt="RSP new MPs"> </figure>  Moreover, having MPs from various other parties/fields can also prevent a cult following of hardcore loyalists within the party.&nbsp; There are members loyal to certain RSP leaders in the party, but there are also those who will not hesitate to go against their leaders if need be. The RSP has little opposition in Parliament, so its own members may have to take on a check-and-balance role. Nepal is in a much better spot institutionally compared to what it was like back in the early days of its democracy. There is a Constitution, there is no active conflict, the monarchy is no longer an existential threat to democracy, and the local and provincial governmental bodies have had the time to settle.&nbsp; This means the RSP is in a better position to work without the basic institutional hurdles that previous governments faced, but it will not be able to hide behind institutional issues if it fails to deliver.&nbsp; In the past, majority parties could easily pin the blame on an authoritarian monarchy, a Maoist conflict, a lack of consensus during the constitution-building process, or a newly implemented federal system.&nbsp; Most of these were just excuses for incompetency. Governments were formed and fell based on self-serving negotiations, but they managed to keep the parties afloat, and the citizenry was willing to give them a second, third, or even fourth chance.&nbsp; The RSP will not have this privilege. Nepal has many problems, but its governmental bodies are better institutionalised than when the NC last had a majority. A challenge for RSP now would be fixing broken institutions, not building new ones. A recurring issue during Balendra Shah’s tenure as Kathmandu’s mayor were his <a href="https://kathmandupost.com/politics/2026/01/28/can-nepal-s-viral-mayor-run-the-country" target="_blank">disputes with the bureaucracy</a> that resulted in months of unpaid salary for KMC staff, a lack of collaboration between him and Deputy Mayor Sunita Dangol, and rarely any public appearances.&nbsp; The RSP is inheriting a bureaucracy tainted by deep-seated patronage networks. Sustaining a government requires institutional collaboration and a willingness to work together, not disruption and division.&nbsp; While Nepal has seen the rise of many populist figures in its democratic history, the RSP’s victory based on Balendra Shah’s fame is new. Populism is usually harmful for a democracy because it punishes dissent, turns criticism into betrayal, and fuels hyper-nationalism, authoritarianism, and polarisation. A trend of punishing criticism is already visible on online spaces. Without an effective parliamentary opposition, the responsibility for democratic accountability will fall on the media and civil society. If the trend of intolerance to criticism deepens, Nepal risks sliding toward a majoritarian politics where popularity replaces accountability. Time and again, the Nepali people have given opportunities to parties that promise change, only to face disappointment. Nepal’s political history shows that majority governments fail not because they lack seats, but because they lack institutions.&nbsp; The electoral earthquake Nepal just witnessed could bring sweeping reforms or drown the country’s fragile democracy. If RSP hopes to succeed where others failed, it must build a party that outlives its founders. Suvexa Pradhan Tuladhar is an Early Career Policy Research Fellow at the Nepal Institute for Policy Research (NIPoRe).

Will it be different this time in Nepal?

Next to my home in Bhainsepati stood a dead Uttis tree next to a public tap. A nearby water tank built a year earlier had killed its roots.
If the tree collapsed, people living nearby and those queuing up to fetch water at the tap would be hurt. With the storm season approaching, the risk was obvious. The tree could also fall on my own house, so I volunteered to find a way to remove this threat.
Little did I know how difficult it would be. A forest officer acquaintance told me there is a special procedure for cutting risky trees. I contacted the Lalitpur District Forest Office (DFO).&nbsp;
He said a technical report from a field officer was needed, and passed on her number. When I called, she asked for the location, photos, and a video. I send them all.
The ward office also suggested I use Lalitpur Metropolitan City’s mobile app, Lalitpur Alert, to report the problem. I uploaded photos, and submitted the complaint. This seemed to be very easy and efficient.
Indeed, the next day the municipality called me back and I explained the situation. They said they could not act without permission from the DFO. I asked why the app existed if the city could not act on such complaints. The officer said he did not know. My happiness was short-lived.
A couple of days later, the app notified me that my problem had been solved, and the complaint was removed. But the dead tree still stood there defiantly.&nbsp;
A week later, two forest technicians arrived on a scooter to inspect the tree. They looked up at the tree and asked if I had a measuring tape so they could measure its diameter.
“You are the technicians,” I told them. “You came to inspect the tree, and you came without a measuring tape?”
I rummaged at home and found a tape measure. They got the diameter and said they would prepare a technical report, but I would have to obtain a recommendation letter from the ward office and submit it to the DFO.
“This tree is dead,” I told them. “It is on public land. You have seen it with your own eyes. You know it's dangerous, so write a report and arrange for it to be cut. Why do I have to run from office to office to apply for recommendation letters?”
Their answer was simple, yet expected: “Those are the rules.”
They left, and I gave up. Two technicians spent half a day visiting the site. The metropolis runs a complaint system with a mobile app funded with public money. The ward office has staff to solve problems. Yet none of these institutions took the responsibility to remove a dangerous tree.
Everyone is busy citing rules and regulations and passing the buck. Weeks passed. Everyone reacted to the problem, but no one took any responsibility to resolving it.
Then, one bright December morning under a deep blue sky, a few neighbourhood boys were swinging their axes on the trunk. They had no proper equipment, no safety gear, and no professional experience.
I gave the boys some money and so did a neighbour. It took an hour or so for the tree to come crashing down safely. We had paid to have the tree cut illegally, and the matter ended there.
Multiple government offices, technicians, procedures, and mobile apps could not remove a dangerous tree, and we had to break the law to cut it. The tree is gone now, but the real problem remains: an inefficient bureaucracy.&nbsp;
It is perhaps symbolic that the tree is the election sign of the Nepali Congress, which was part of Nepal's governance and bureaucracy for decades and did not perform well in this month's election.&nbsp;
That is the bureaucracy that the new RSP government now has to get to work. But it will not be easy.
I posted on Facebook: ‘When people feel leaders have grown arrogant or corrupt with power, they change their minds and their votes. If those who replace them follow the same path, voters will again change their minds and votes.’
I continued: ‘The strength of democracy lies in this simple principle: the more citizens act as independent voters, the stronger democracy becomes. The more they behave as party loyalists, the weaker it grows. If we want a better system, we must demand deep reform of the state bureaucracy and hold institutions accountable.’&nbsp;
The first responses came from two senior government officials. They told me privately that they agreed by 200% but could not say so publicly.
It is quite normal for a Nepali to get the run around in government offices, it is almost a given to be asked for a bribe. As an environmental reporter and citizen, I have numerous such examples.
It is not just one sector that has been suffering. It is everywhere, and this is just an example of how complicated our bureaucracy is. As a 40 something person, I am old enough to remember the 1990 pro-democracy movement, &nbsp;the Maoist insurgency. Many promises made then by the politicians were broken.
We fought for rights, we fought for regime change. The country has changed political systems several times, from monarchy to multiparty democracy and finally a republic.
Yet one thing that remains largely untouched or reformed is our inefficient and corrupt bureaucracy. The new government, to be led by the youngest prime minister in our history must start this reform if it wants to deliver.&nbsp;
Otherwise, we may have to keep changing governments every few years, and still find ourselves unable to legally cut down even one dead tree.

A dead tree tests Nepal's bureaucracy

Deadly floods two years ago along the southern fringes of Kathmandu Valley killed 200 people. Climate change was blamed, but the destruction was magnified by quarries and sand mining owned by local politicians and crony contractors. Disaster mitigation and environmental risk was not a priority for any of the political parties that ran and won Nepal’s election last week. Although the RSP has a supermajority, rural municipalities that grant mining contracts are still ruled by the established parties that supply aggregates and sand to feed &nbsp;Kathmandu’s construction boom. Here in Lele Valley, residents are worried about another monsoon season that will start in June and fear more floods bringing unmanaged gravel from quarries down the Nallu River.&nbsp; The house of Sanumaya Nagarkoti, 65, and ten neighbours were washed away by the flood on the night of 28 September 2024. She and her husband petitioned the ward and municipal council to remove the crushers but no one listened. The slopes above are scarred by landslides from two years ago, and the banks of the river are strewn with bounders the size of cars that were brought down. “We live in constant fear of landslides,” says Chakra Nagarkoti, “the heavy crusher machinery and tipper trucks also constantly shake the house.”&nbsp; Google Earth images show that 24.6 hectares of mountain flanks have been excavated since 2010, and despite the disaster no lessons have been learnt.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260319090348_bdce7f17500eadac0ce0814c32c2b4190d01325976fd4d29db9985148459c0bc.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260319090348_bdce7f17500eadac0ce0814c32c2b4190d01325976fd4d29db9985148459c0bc" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="907" loading="lazy" alt="Lele"> <figcaption>Photo: GOOGLE EARTH</figcaption> </figure>  The RSP might have got a near two-thirds majority in Parliament but decision-making at the community level is controlled by politicians in cahoots with contractors.&nbsp; Along the Mahadev Khola, the Department of Mines cancelled excavation permits for crushers citing flood and landslide risk. Yet there are still 21 contractors mining stones and sand.&nbsp; Nearby Godavari Municipality also instructed operators who had not renewed permits to close down. No action was taken. One of them is Vinayak Multipurpose which delivers aggregate and stones for United Cement. Local ward chair Milan Silwal, has a stake in Vinayak and locals accuse him of taking the side of industry.&nbsp; Another slope is being gouged out near Mahadev Khola, and comparing satellite imagery from 2010 shows that the scar on the mountain is now five times bigger.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260319090348_21a8f7f7f9d6cc784c35719da737b20283f934bbe16c9de971d91bf01012499a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260319090348_21a8f7f7f9d6cc784c35719da737b20283f934bbe16c9de971d91bf01012499a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1125" loading="lazy" alt="Lele"> <figcaption>United Cement operating near Mahadev Khola. Photo: ARCHANA DARJI</figcaption> </figure>  Nearby stands the lone house of 55-year-old Sabina Tamang, who lives with her husband and daughter. Due to the sound of the stone-breakers, they cannot hear each other speak. “Last year, a landslide destroyed our cowshed and latrine,” she says. “Next it is going to be our home.”&nbsp; DRY SPRINGS Lele gets its water from several perennial springs which have gone dry in recent years. One of them is near where the cement factory quarries limestone. “We hardly get any water, and the little that does flow is murky and red,” says local resident Rajesh Shrestha. A parliamentary committee directive ordered excavation to stop 15 years ago after a similar flood to the one in 2024.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260319090352_af7da754299116578cc1dd91d5318ec337b69e74b0676599260b7c57c6ec6fd7.png" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260319090352_af7da754299116578cc1dd91d5318ec337b69e74b0676599260b7c57c6ec6fd7" data-rendition-name="original" width="1440" height="494" loading="lazy" alt="Lele"> <figcaption>Lele over the years. Photo: GOOGLE EARTH</figcaption> </figure>  United Cement’s manager Hari Upreti says his company has fulfilled all requirements and has permission to mine 15 hectares of its own property and 4 hectares of government land. “We have the Department of Mines permit which is valid till 2036 and extract 1,600 tons of limestone every day,” says Upreti. “The local community knew about the mining and if there is a problem with springs going dry it is not because of us.” Environmental researcher Uttambabu Shrestha, however, says there is a direct correlation between the quarry operation and floods, landslides and dry springs.&nbsp; “Extraction should not be allowed without an environmental impact assessment, and companies must stick to set limits,” he says. Investigation of permits show that there is collusion between local officials and contractors. Godavari-6 Chair Bishnuman Maharjan has investment in two quarries and crusher companies operating along Nallu Khola. A paper trail links Maharjan also to Sagarmatha Stone Crusher and Mankamana Aggregate Industries. IMPUNITY&nbsp; Godavari Municipality published a notice in June 2024, instructing crusher companies to submit environmental reports within two weeks, covering initial examination and impact assessment. It also told them to pay local development fees and clear outstanding dues. The municipality even wrote to the Department of Mines clarifying that it had issued permits to only five out of 27 contractors. Within a month, the Department wrote to the District Administration Office (DAO) and District Police Office instructing them to stop illegal excavation, and sent a copy to the Lalitpur Division Forest Office. The DAO then wrote to Lalitpur Police naming Machindranath Multipurpose as operating illegally and should be shut down. There was no followup. The municipality then issued fines worth Rs 60 million to it and one other company for non-compliance. The companies stalled, disputing the calculations.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260319090356_6e96403d3c5be4aef4d030974d6d92029a0eb396deafd19c511978dae30dd3d2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20260319090356_6e96403d3c5be4aef4d030974d6d92029a0eb396deafd19c511978dae30dd3d2" data-rendition-name="original" width="4000" height="2250" loading="lazy" alt="Lele"> <figcaption>Another site of extraction near Mahadev Khola in Godavari. </figcaption> </figure>  Machhindranath Multipurpose operator Kedar Timalsina Shashi denies doing anything wrong, and says the landslides were collateral damage because of the steep terrain. When contacted Godavari Municipality Deputy Mayor Muna Adhikari declined to comment. It has been 10 years since Rajesh Shrestha, Nikesh Shrestha, and others raised their voices against the environmental destruction caused by the construction mafia. An agreement was finally reached two years ago between locals and mining and transport businessmen, stipulating that stone mines must close permanently by mid-2025. The agreement also stated that check dams must be built to manage mining debris, and damaged structures must be restored to their original state. Trees were to be planted at sites where stone mines had operated. But the mines in the catchment are still in operation with 500 tipper trucks working on the site every day, transporting stones and aggregate. Local youth have continued holding sit-in street protests and at Lalitpur DAO.&nbsp; After one sit-in, the mines closed for about a month but they started back up a month later.&nbsp; Birendra Maharjan owns one of the crusher units, and says he follows all environmental protocols. He told us: “You need stones to build, and we must dig to extract stones. Some trees have to be cut, people get employment, and besides, floods and landslides happen across Nepal.” &nbsp;&nbsp; Centre for Investigative Journalism – Nepal.

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A dead tree tests Nepal's bureaucracy

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