Amidst the euphoria in Nepal about the RSP’s landslide victory, the party’s future government, possibly led by Balendra Shah will plunge headlong into an energy and economic crisis sparked by the war in West Asia.
Nepal gets all its diesel, petrol, gas and aviation fuel from India and lacks a strategic stockpile to buffer against shortages. The United States has unsanctioned Russian crude oil to India for one month, but India will only export refined petroleum products to Nepal after meeting its own domestic demand. As it is, India has only 10 days of stockpile of cooking gas and it is giving preference to household use. Energy experts say new oil and gas supplies from Russia and elsewhere will take another month to arrive at Indian ports.
“This conflict didn’t develop overnight, yet we did nothing to augment our reserves. Clearly, we didn’t manage procurement anticipating supply disruptions,” says economist Pushkar Bajracharya.
The conflict has escalated, seriously disrupting global petroleum supplies. Nearly 20% of the world’s oil and gas moves out of the Strait of Hormuz which is now blocked. The Persian Gulf makes up most of the oil and liquified natural gas supplied to Japan (75%), India (50%) and China (38%). Crude oil prices have nearly doubled to $100 a barrel this week.&nbsp;
“This crisis is only going to intensify, so in the short term, it means fuel prices will increase as will the cost of goods and services,” adds Bajracharya. “This doesn’t bode well for the new government, especially when people have such high expectations from it.”
Fuel stoppages from India have happened before, notably during the 2015 Blockade. But Nepal could be better placed this time to cushion the shock because of the proliferation of battery-operated vehicles, and electrification of household cooking to some extent.
“The increase in electric vehicles provides some relief, but it is not enough,” says energy economist and former Water Resources Minister Dipak Gyawali. “Most critical services still run on diesel, and they cannot be replaced overnight.”&nbsp;
Nepal’s expanding road network means diesel and petrol consumption is also increasing. If the war drags on, there will be a critical shortage of aviation fuel that could also hurt tourism at the start of the trekking and mountaineering season. There is already a nationwide shortage of cooking gas which is used by 62% of Nepali households. &nbsp;
The fuel crisis will have a knock-on effect on the economy which the RSP government will have to tackle on an emergency footing as soon as it comes into office.
The priority would be to cap fuel prices with subsidies, control hoarding, and in the longer term expedite the switch to electricity for transportation and cooking.&nbsp;
MONEY IN
The other impact will be on jobs in West Asia and remittances. Nearly half the $11 billion a year Nepalis send home every year comes from West Asian countries. Nepal’s hard currency reserves have hit a record high $21.09 billion, but that cash will be of no use if there is no fuel to buy.
A sharp drop in remittances due to the collapse of the economies of the Gulf states if the war is prolonged will have a multiplier impact particularly on Nepalis' household expenses and the country’s economy in general. This in turn will have a knock-on effect on investment, and affect the RSP government’s main agenda which is to create jobs at home.
The vicious cycle will then mean that more Nepalis will want to migrate for overseas jobs, but options in the Gulf may not be available.
The RSP’s ministers in government will have to come up with innovative ways to re-integrate Nepalis forced to return because they lose their jobs, or for safety reasons. There are nearly 2 million Nepalis across the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, and another 7,000 mainly women caregivers in Israel.
“Other than the impact on remittances and the economy, there could be the additional challenge of rescuing over 2 million Nepalis in West Asia if it comes to that,” says Bajracharya. “We don’t have the resources, and we will have to rely on India’s logistical help.”
The RSP’s main vote bank was among global Nepalis, who could not cast &nbsp;ballots themselves but influenced families and friends back home to choose the party. Social media was abuzz with slogans that promoted how choosing the RSP would bring their children back home from the Gulf.
“The RSP got a majority, and that’s a good thing but voters came together to oppose UML, NC and the Maoists. But there is no clear ideology or philosophy, so while their slogan to bring Nepalis back from the Gulf sounds nice, what would they come back to?” asks Gyawali.
The Nepali diaspora in the Gulf that influenced the electorate so effectively will now be looking at how the government it helped get to power in Kathmandu will help as war engulfs the region.&nbsp;
There is an almost unrealistically high expectation of the RSP, and the party may not even get the customary 100-day honeymoon period. The cabinet could be put together easily enough, but the bureaucracy, judiciary, police, and the Upper House are all populated by loyalists of the old parties.
Despite bad blood, the RSP will have to work together with all parties in the face of the crisis unleashed by the war. And Nepal’s politicised foreign policy must be galvanised to deal with the crisis.

Sonia Awale

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Rough road ahead for new Nepal rulers

Jhapa today looks like the aftermath of a battlefield. Election posters and party flags droop along roads under a brooding overcast sky.
Yet, the mood is hopeful. This was the constituency where Nepal's history was made -- where a candidate promising a new future defeated one representing the old, failed ways.
Balendra Shah of the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) scored a decisive win here with 68,348 votes, defeating four-time former prime minister K P Oli of the UML who got only 18,734 votes.&nbsp;
The result caps a nationwide surge by the RSP, which is set to secure more than a two-thirds majority in the lower house of Parliament, signalling a fundamental realignment in Nepali politics away from traditional party structures toward personality-driven leadership.
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The Jhapa-5 victory marks a moment when Nepal’s political centre of gravity shifted from cadre-based party machinery to a youth-backed reform movement centred on former Kathmandu mayor Balendra Shah. For decades, Nepali elections have been powered by cadre-based party structures.&nbsp;
The UML enlisted 400 out of 450 voters of Barhasudi village in Gauriganj Rural Municipality 4 in a ceremony attended by K P Oli himself. However, the outcome showed the limited effectiveness of traditional structures in the current political environment, which favours digital outreach, youth networks, and personality-driven support.
A district-level UML cadre in Jhapa, who asked not to be named, admitted the limitations of traditional organisation: “We have the organisation down to every ward, but this time that did not matter as much. Voters were hostile during door-to-door campaigning. People were voting for Balen as a person, not for a party. Our cadres did their work, but the voter mood had changed.”
Traditional party loyalty alone may no longer be sufficient to secure electoral victory in Nepal. The Nepali Congress (NC) positioned Gagan Thapa as its prime-ministerial face, while the UML continued to campaign around Oli.&nbsp;
“What guaranteed the RSP’s success is that it had established itself as an alternative while positioning Balen Shah as the alternative for the PM post,” explains political analyst Bishnu Sapkota. Even a renewed NC under Gagan Thapa was burdened by the baggage of old politics because technically his party was only half-new.&nbsp;
Sapkota notes that Sher Bahadur Deuba had already sanctioned the party's PR list and other electoral processes; consequently, people saw nothing new in the Gagan-led NC because he had no time to lead it before the elections.&nbsp;
The parliamentary system does not allow voters to directly elect the prime minister, yet this election resembled a presidential-style contest centred on Balendra Shah.&nbsp;
The RSP’s campaign messaging framed the vote as a mandate to make Balendra Shah prime minister, effectively turning parliamentary ballots into a referendum on his leadership. The strategy proved effective: with a two-thirds majority in Parliament, Shah now has the numbers to lead the country for five years.&nbsp;
Nepal has drifted off unstable coalition-dominated politics. For many voters here, the logic was straightforward: elect enough RSP candidates and Shah becomes prime minister.&nbsp;
“I voted for Balen because I wanted the RSP to form a majority government and him to lead it,” says Jhapa-5 voter Ranjit Subedi. Shah attracted cadre-like loyalty without cadres, a follower base driven more by sentiment and aspiration than by party machinery.&nbsp;
Sapkota notes that personality-based politics is fairly new: “Rabi Lamichhane started this trend during the 2022 election as his popularity made the RSP the 4th largest party in Parliament last time.&nbsp;
Balen, on the other hand, has maintained an enigmatic aura that has captivated people to an extent that they do not enquire about his vision, which comes with its own risk of public disappointment if he fails to deliver.”
With a two-thirds majority, Shah has the parliamentary numbers for government stability, a rare achievement in Nepal coalition-dominated politics. Yet whether he can maintain the RSP’s unity and the youth movement’s enthusiasm for five years remains to be seen.&nbsp;
Sapkota warns: “This level of public support empowers a leader, as this is stronger than a mere formal electoral mandate, but it comes with the risk of the system being overridden by a superman-like figure.”
It is rare in the world and in Nepal that two top leaders compete in the same constituency. The only other example was back in 1991, when Madan Bhandari ran and won the seat in Kathmandu-5 against then Prime Minister Krishna Prasad Bhattarai. In Shah’s case, his bold decision to challenge K P Oli, as the face of the old establishment in his stronghold catapulted him to victory.&nbsp;
The Jhapa-5 victory represents more than a symbolic contest between Nepal’s political establishment and a rising, youth-backed reform movement. Following the state killing of GenZ protestors on 8 September, Oli’s political authority eroded fundamentally.&nbsp;
Damak-based journalist Sujan Gautam witnessed Oli’s declining popularity here post-September: “He would have lost to some other strong figure too.”&nbsp;
An judicial investigation committee led by Gauri Bahadur Karki formed to investigate the violence, deaths, and property damage on 8-9 September submitted its 900-plus page report to the interim government on Sunday. The report is said to recommend action against those found responsible, including Oli and members of his cabinet and security apparatus.
Santosh Dhimal, a GenZ voter from Damak, says: “K P Oli was not suitable to be our leader because he lied after ordering the shooting of people my age who were peacefully protesting.”
Prime Minister Sushila Karki has said her government will publish the main conclusions after reviewing it with the home ministry and cabinet.&nbsp;
Oli’s broader vulnerability here lay not just in the state’s response to GenZ protests, but also in representing an old political class that was cadre-heavy and ideologically bankrupt. Political analyst Bishnu Sapkota says, “Oli was the most visible face of the old corrupt political culture that Nepalis had grown to detest.”
This election result is not merely a party winning by a landslide, but a departure from the type of political culture that the old parties represented. Even if RSP does not deliver, society has moved on. The question is whether the 2026 election is a genuine transition, or merely a pendulum swing before the next disillusionment sets in.
Another Jhapa-5 constituent Ranjit Subedi acknowledged Oli’s historical contribution, but added: “A leader must know when to retire gracefully. He has done a lot for Jhapa-5 and the country during the Indian blockade but his time is over now.”

Jhapa-5 after its political earthquake

It took the September GenZ firestorm and public anger against non-performing actors for a 35-year-old structural engineer and rapper Balendra (Balen) Shah to oust Nepal’s four-time prime minister and former revolutionary.
The UML’s KP Oli has been trounced by 50,000 votes in his home turf, an area where he has won many elections in his 55-year political career. It is the same story across Nepal, where established politicians are being rejected by voters.
A 'Balen Wave' has swept the country, dyeing it in the RSP’s Blue party colour. But the UML and NC particularly did this to themselves.&nbsp;
An apology and a retirement after the September protests would have saved Oli some dignity, and given the rebranded UML a tiny bit of hope and perhaps a few more electoral wins.&nbsp;
Maybe he could have been remembered fondly as the funny old guy who made one last fatal political error, but now he will be defined by this defeat. Maintaining control and legitimacy in his own party will be hard too.&nbsp;
Contrary to his past combativeness and blaming nefarious foreign conspiracies, Oli gracefully conceded on Saturday, congratulating 'Balen Babu' &nbsp;and wishing him 'a successful five years'.
Balendra Shah and his RSP knew what they were doing. As of Sunday, it has won 118 and leads in 7 other constituencies, a lot of them with similarly wide margins of victory. RSP candidates have even beaten well regarded candidates like Gagan Thapa of the NC and Kulman Ghising of Ujyalo Nepal.&nbsp;

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Many including this paper questioned the RSP's strategy of choosing popular candidates over competence. But the point of an election is to win it, and there was a short campaign window to put it all together and the RSP pulled it off most successfully.&nbsp;
To be sure, the party should not get too much credit. Its manifesto was broad and bland, and no different than the other older parties.&nbsp;
A big part of the RSP ballots, maybe even most of it, were people voting against the old parties rather than for it. Many seemed to feel that this was coming, and perhaps even hoped for it.
There is also a sense of lingering cynicism. Nepal has had several revolutions and many new political starts and things always seem to end up in the same corrupt hopelessness. There is every possibility that the new RSP government will also go the same way.&nbsp;
The RSP is much bigger than Balendra Shah, although it was his popularity that made this victory possible. Its victory brings with it a sense of hope as all new things do.&nbsp;
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Not all party members who were elected are going to be as accountable or have integrity. Many of them have a chequered past, saw an opportunity in joining the RSP and took the risk.&nbsp;
What changed things were the events of September. Politicians saw firsthand that 'Power to the People' is not some abstract idea. Get too loose to it, forget that you are ruling and not serving, and you get booted out.&nbsp;
The interim Sushila Karki government deserve credit for delivering on its biggest mandate of holding the election in such a short time frame. The expectation at large was that the polls would be delayed or even scuttled.
In fact, a two-thirds RSP majority is a great opportunity to rethink the country’s political culture and institutionalise change. The point of the government in a democracy is to serve the people. Appointing non-political, competent people worked, at least in the short tenure of the interim government.&nbsp;
Adding layers of bureaucracy and committees and party politics along federal, provincial and local levels heaped resistance to the simple goal of making lives easier for the Nepali.&nbsp;
Nepal is getting a reboot, and the next few months will show whether the country is on the right track with its new generation government.

Vishad Raj Onta

Balen takes Jhapa and Nepal

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Nepal election live results

This is the 88th episode of Diaspora Diaries, a Nepali Times series in collaboration with Migration Lab providing a platform to share experiences of living, working and studying abroad. Chandra Gurung, Sierra Leone Six of us came to Nepal from Sierra Leone to vote for घण्टी of the RSP. But the six votes were wasted because of the crisis in the Gulf and delayed flights. We arrived the day after the election.&nbsp; The morning we were supposed to fly out, we found out our flight was cancelled, so we had to postpone by four days to figure out an alternate route. Luckily, we did not get stranded in the Gulf like many others. Even though I missed the election, I now look forward to spending time with my family especially to help my children with their studies as their exams are approaching. I am happy because it looks like we will get the outcome we desired and came to Nepal for. Stability is Nepal's most urgent need. If the government is stable and works for five years, they might be able to build change.&nbsp; Fighting corruption, quality education and job creation should be the priority for the new government. We had already advised our families to give the new party a chance. Despite being a new party, the RSP has been able to win the hearts of people. Well-educated people with professional backgrounds have joined the party even though they might not have experience in politics. I first left Nepal in 2008, I am still abroad, and I do not know when I will return. I need to save. I want to see this new government create the conditions to bring us back. In these 18 years, I have not felt like returning. My goal is to make sure I can provide good opportunities to my children. I miss home, going overseas is only to make a living.&nbsp; Suraj Bhandari, Korea I had timed my vacation to vote for Nepal. In our discussions back in Korea, the GenZ protest made those of us overseas want to vote for and bring change. Whichever party it was, we wanted a new one. I had also told my family that if I was unable to arrange my vacation around the election, they should consider voting for new candidates.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260307020344_ebd90331e37dd1c6d37c4d1e35fe58eefcbf1923894cf397aafb7a81b887d63f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260307020344_ebd90331e37dd1c6d37c4d1e35fe58eefcbf1923894cf397aafb7a81b887d63f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="900" loading="lazy" alt="Nepali migrants in Korea"> </figure>  We have seen what the old parties have done for the country, they had their chance which they wasted.&nbsp; Leaving Nepal feels different because this time, I am leaving with the hope that Nepal will soon be worth returning to. What I realised after migrating is that when you are away, you have even more love for your country. We overseas youth know the pain of being away and wanted to vote for change.&nbsp; If you earn one lakh abroad, you are willing to work for half that amount back home so you can be with your family. Next time when I come back to Nepal, I want to be able to come for good and not just on vacation. I leave with hope. I hope to return to start my business in Nepal.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260307020344_e835553553e201610afabafa73827a8b7e56d05a6b86c14721f3080d3d5a730f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260307020344_e835553553e201610afabafa73827a8b7e56d05a6b86c14721f3080d3d5a730f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="900" loading="lazy" alt="Korea migrant worker"> </figure>  Investing here in a small business is very risky and I hope that changes. I think we have done our part, now it is up to the new government to do its part. They have five years to deliver and if they don’t, we will again have to look for change. I hope history won't repeat itself. When the Maoists came to power, they had brought a similar sense of hope and people believed them and voted. They started off well initially but failed to deliver. I hope that won't happen with घण्टी. Rajendra Kunjeda, Belgium Those of us overseas have attachments back home. But because of the Gulf crisis I was not able to make it on time for the election.&nbsp; When I talk to colleagues in Belgium, the broad consensus among us Nepalis was that we should give the new party a chance. The expectation from the new government is that we need a way out of the rut the country is in. That is what the election was about.&nbsp; When you live in a developed country, you also hope the same for your country. Transformation takes time, but I hope for the best. Not all the old guard was bad, and not all the new guard will be good either. But the new government has to take the country towards development. The expectation is not for overnight change.&nbsp; I was lucky to get a scholarship to study in Europe and have now started working. My degree in agricultural science is relevant for Nepal and the world – you need food to live.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260307020344_1b419bdc71ea6b2b307d5cace49112f976757949b64323fea282986e11231b55.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260307020344_1b419bdc71ea6b2b307d5cace49112f976757949b64323fea282986e11231b55" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="900" loading="lazy" alt="Nepalis in Denmark"> </figure>  I felt bad about not making it on time for the election because I was so excited. Not everyone can return, but what the diaspora wants is evident from social media posts and conversations. I did not influence my parents back home because it is their right to vote for whoever they wanted.&nbsp; During the GenZ movement, the deaths of the students were devastating, but it has also made it clear that the nation is desperate for change. It was an outcome of trying to suppress the change that youth desired.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260307020348_3fa02333f99ff131e84e31c2e990aa40fc1797913b5e6625a18f86d40649ddfa.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20260307020348_3fa02333f99ff131e84e31c2e990aa40fc1797913b5e6625a18f86d40649ddfa" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Gen Z movement"> </figure>  In Nepal, I have worked with returnees who came back during Covid-19 to see how their skills can be productively utilised in Nepal. There is a lot of potential there which the government needs to prioritise.&nbsp; I have not decided whether to stay overseas or return to Nepal. If day-to-day life and bureaucracy were easier, it would be better. When I am assured that I can sustain myself and get a sense of satisfaction in Nepal, I will consider returning. I need to feel confident in Nepal, feel ढुक्क that if I work hard both I and the country will benefit. This requires a collaborative approach. The Blue sweep means we are on the right path. Sudip Khanal, Denmark I was coming from Denmark to vote. My wife and I left on 28 February but we were stuck for eight days in Istanbul. I was coming to vote for change. I am happy to see that Blue is winning. Even though I did not get to vote, I am glad the country is getting the change it needed.&nbsp; I first went to Denmark in 2022, starting as a student and after graduation I am working. The Nepal embassy in Copenhagen has made things easier to deal with immigration stuff but for a wider population across the world especially the Gulf I also wish the embassies did more.&nbsp; This time our government was not proactive in supporting Nepalis stranded overseas due to the Gulf crisis. Our main wish is that the new government creates new opportunities at home. Education, healthcare and jobs should be the biggest priorities.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260307020344_a774a87b087d49498900728988049634956e8286a61923d9a8cd0de2fafa49ea.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20260307020344_a774a87b087d49498900728988049634956e8286a61923d9a8cd0de2fafa49ea" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="900" loading="lazy" alt="Belgoum Nepali migrant"> </figure>  If I could earn up to Rs80,000 back home I would return. I studied business in Denmark but I don’t yet have the guts to return. I am worried about whether there will be a return on investment here and there are no jobs to fall back to. Abroad, I can work for someone else even if I cannot start my own business. I hope change will now come. But this will not happen quickly. All of us back in Denmark supported change. We wanted to come as a group but many students faced constraints like exams or classes. I had no holidays but after the GenZ protests I did not want to waste my vote. Unfortunately, I was not able to return in time but I convinced my parents to give घण्टी a chance for the RSP. Let’s see how things go. ANONYMOUS, Dubai I lived in Dubai for five and a half years, returned to Nepal for a year, and then remigrated two years ago. It was convenient that my holidays and the election coincided.&nbsp; The new government should provide proper job opportunities back home. There are 4-5 people in a house, you need at least Rs50,000 to live comfortably in Nepal. When someone is sick, where can we go?&nbsp; Companies abroad are not always good about leave. You are promised something here, and get another job abroad. Embassies do not always listen to us, like the Philippine embassy.&nbsp; People get tired and give up.&nbsp; I am updating election results on my phone but I am more worried about my flight which is likely to be cancelled because of the situation in the Gulf. The airline just says ‘it is not cancelled till now’, but they do not tell you when you can fly.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260307020348_399b70503f4e25a35e21574985d0d188285b457c38534ae6d95b35e4546b5683.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20260307020348_399b70503f4e25a35e21574985d0d188285b457c38534ae6d95b35e4546b5683" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="900" loading="lazy" alt="Nepali migrants"> </figure>  I paid Rs5,000 to come here from Dhanusa just to be told there are no flights. It is simple things like this that need improvement. We have watched politicians for many years and they kept youth unemployed. How can you love any government that has killed kids?&nbsp; The new ones say they will do something, lets see. Foreign labour migration has helped me. I cannot earn even Rs10,000 a month in my village. How will I support my children? If I go, I can send them money. My family is happy. I work hard for them. If my दुख्ख keeps 4-5 people in my family सुख्ख it is all right, isn’t it?

The diaspora and Nepal's Blue Sweep

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
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CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

The magic 138

K P Oli of the UML is trying not to fall from a precarious tight rope, Gagan Thapa is busy mending his NC party, while the RSP’s Balendra Shah is bungee jumping off the bridge in this cartoon (above) made exclusively for Nepali Times by artist Anup Tamu.&nbsp;
This post-GenZ movement election is a contest between a stale past, and the promise of a fresh start. The post-1990 politics saw instability, polarisation, an insurgency, a royal coup that briefly brought back the absolute monarchy, and will now be replaced with a new, accountable political culture.&nbsp;
At least that is the hope.
The old is represented by 75-year-old Oli who was deposed after the 8-9 September upheaval. Challenging him directly in his own constituency of Jhapa-5 is Shah, the popular former mayor of&nbsp;
Kathmandu. If informal polls are right, Shah and the RSP are set to win. That means this is ultimately going to be a contest between&nbsp;
Balendra Shah and Gagan Thapa, the new leader of the grand old party.
This election came down to a personality clash between &nbsp;personality cults. Most are voting for the prime minister of a party, not for the party of a future prime minister. Below are profiles of the three prime ministerial hopefuls:
K P Oli&nbsp;
The comeback kid. Forced to resign and flee after disastrously banning social media in September, yet here he is, back again, elected chair of the UML for the third time in a row. &nbsp;
The UML party line is that those protests were fuelled not by genuine frustration with the leadership, but by bad actor infiltrators. The election is between those who want to build the nation and those who want to burn it down, Oli says.&nbsp;
It seems unlikely that after the September upheaval, the country will allow Oli Ba a return to the office he was forced to vacate. Yet his longevity is undeniable, despite two kidney translpants.
Oli started at age 18 in the radical Communist underground in eastern Nepal in the early 1970s. He spent 14 years in prison, emerged in 1987, and became a central committee member of the UML, served as Home Minister, and was known for his oratory.
He became prime minister for the first time in 2015, opposing India’s unofficial blockade and making trade deals with China. He was adept at playing the nationalist card, and pushed for the adoption of the Nepal map that included disputed Limpiyadhura, riling New Delhi no end.
Oli has been prime minister four times, which is also how many kidneys there are in his body. Tons of experience in age and at the very top of Nepali politics is certainly what he has over both Gagan Thapa and Balendra Shah. This is a negative too because he represents obsolete politics.&nbsp;
Oli defended his multiple premiership: “I have been PM for a total of five years. How come nobody gets a headache when neighbouring countries have been leaders for 15 years? How come other 80-year-old leaders are not criticised?”&nbsp;
Oli has a sharp tongue and a wicked sense of humour that often gets him into trouble. He is prone to hyperbole and weaving fantasies, making him the target of ridicule. Over the years, he has promised ocean-going ships on the Kosi, gas pipelines, supercomputers, and rapid airport development, with zero follow-through.&nbsp;
Oli developed a thin skin towards the end of his tenure, squeezing the press and social media. He has chosen not to issue any apology or accept accountability for the 8 September massacre. His own party has gone along with this delusion, but now the people will have their say.&nbsp;
Gagan Thapa&nbsp;
Of the three prime ministerial hopefuls, Gagan Thapa of the NC would seem to be the ideal compromise of old and new, youth and experience. Starting as a student activist, he has had an extensive political career, and is an anti-monarchist who has seen stints in jail.&nbsp;
Thapa was elected to the first Constituent Assembly in 2008 and has since always been an MP. As health minister in 2016-17, he introduced Nepal’s first health insurance scheme. Almost 50 now, Thapa can no longer claim to be a Young Turk, although he is still 25 years younger than Oli.&nbsp;
Thapa has waited patiently for his day in the limelight, and sensed his time had come after the GenZ movement. He seized the NC leadership from Sher Bahadur Deuba, becoming president unopposed during a ‘special’ general convention. Deuba seems to still be in shock after a near-lynching and the burning down of his house. &nbsp;
Contesting from Sarlahi and not his usual Kathmandu constituency, Thapa has launched an extensive campaign on the ground and on social media. Much of this focuses on a rebranding of his party as Nepali Congress 2.0. He is also making a distinction between a reformed NC and newbies in the RSP, but is facing a stiff challenge in Sarlahi-4 from former NC member Amresh Singh who defected to the RSP.
He is one of few politicians who use social media effectively. After the September protests, even when his house was burnt down, he spoke directly into a camera to say sorry on behalf of his party. “Our core values are still the same: democracy, social justice, democracy,” he said.&nbsp;
No more coalitions that go against principles, no more corruption, judge us by performance and not speeches, Thapa has said. Idealistic, but can he pull it off in a party so rooted in the old ways of doing things?
Thapa’s heart seems to be in the right place. As MP he has spoken up against his party’s aging leadership, and in favour of the right to free expression. He represents the voting block that is tired of the old, but sceptical of the new.
Balendra Shah
‘Rapper/Structural Engineer/Kathmandu Metropolitan Ex Mayor’ reads the TikTok bio of @balenshah. Balendra Shah could not be more unconventional as a Nepali politician.&nbsp;
He is running a brave gambit, choosing to contest Jhapa-5 and challenge K P Oli in his home turf. If Shah wins, it will be quite a statement from voters. What a blow to Oli, and all of the legacy parties. The apt bell symbol of his RSP is sounding the alarm.&nbsp;
Despite his rapper background, Shah’s campaign so far has been scanty with words. He has chosen to partake in aurafarming — in one video he pilots a boat in Udaypur, in another he drives on a rural road. Many posts position him as a family man.&nbsp;
Unlike Gagan Thapa, Shah has few videos that speak directly to the voting public. And he never spoke to the press while mayor and on the campaign trail. There were sarcastic comments after his recent campaign address, one feigning surprise: “He speaks!”
This is carefully curated brand-building, along with the trademark beard and sunglasses. With a ‘Balen Craze’ sweeping the country, his thinking perhaps is: ‘The less I say, the less chance that I mess up.’
And he has messed up in impulsive social media posts since deleted (page 10-11) in which he heaped abuse at India, China and the US. He also once threatened to burn down Singha Darbar after being stopped by traffic police.&nbsp;
Shah has been campaigning not just in Jhapa but all over the country, trying to establish his credentials as a national leader. At a speech in Itahari this week, he vowed to solve problems of agriculture, tourism, sports, and connectivity.&nbsp;
It was a weak speech, lacking focus, much stuttering, superficial, and without the powerful tone of Thapa or Oli. However, the crowd was engaged and loved every minute of it. Shah’s supporters have made up their minds.&nbsp;
As Kathmandu mayor, Shah got mixed reviews. Many were outraged by his crackdown on street vendors and squatters, and his flashy attempts to beautify Kathmandu were seen to be performative. Budget spending was one of the lowest among metropolitan cities, yet the public perception is that Kathmandu is cleaner and better managed.&nbsp;
If Shah looks to succeed and last in Nepal’s politics, and perhaps as prime minister, he would have to conduct himself in a much more diplomatic and transparent manner.&nbsp;
To some, he is a populist and too new to be taken seriously. Others are skeptical about him joining the RSP, with all of the scandals of its leaders.&nbsp;
But as the elected mayor of Kathmandu, and holding on to the position for four years, he has proven that at least he has initiative and effectiveness. &nbsp;

OLD vs NEW vs NEW

&nbsp;The BBC documentary <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Idv4mMGHPLk&amp;t=173s">Shot Like Enemies: Inside Nepal’s GenZ Uprising</a> set off a frenzied debate in the public sphere, highlighting how sensitive international coverage of the country still is for Nepalis despite the national media doing its job. The investigative report focussed on the massacre outside Parliament on 8 September that led to the collapse of the government and paved the way for the election on Thursday.&nbsp; There was praise from supporters of the film and scathing criticism. Raw clips and leaked conversations showed how deliberately the protesters were shot in cold blood. Others saw a sinister conspiracy behind the release of what they regarded as a one-sided documentary just a week before the election. News in the foreign media of the election from Nepal was eclipsed this week by the war in West Asia. Nepali Times brings this selection of readings from the international press. For the complete articles go online or type in the links.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260303110320_be0e1078a3563f9433e73af614fc24db7fb0d42560c88d9522a8b17e944a3e3f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260303110320_be0e1078a3563f9433e73af614fc24db7fb0d42560c88d9522a8b17e944a3e3f" data-rendition-name="original" width="759" height="412" loading="lazy" alt="international coverage of Nepal elections"> </figure>  Read the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2026/3/2/balen-shah-rapper-mayor-nepals-next-prime-minister">full story</a> here.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260303110320_493b9bca6cd984aa0d846ee577a3ef5aadc11086f6387c6b5b3f6d1c21b087a6.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20260303110320_493b9bca6cd984aa0d846ee577a3ef5aadc11086f6387c6b5b3f6d1c21b087a6" data-rendition-name="original" width="636" height="678" loading="lazy" alt="international coverage of Nepal elections"> </figure>  Read the <a href="https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/nepali-parties-promise-big-ahead-of-polls-however-concerns-remain/article70688498.ece">full story</a> here.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260303110320_b813313c898a1addf207ee663210ae8ebc0cd2f47ba8fb088530c445a733896b.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20260303110320_b813313c898a1addf207ee663210ae8ebc0cd2f47ba8fb088530c445a733896b" data-rendition-name="original" width="625" height="582" loading="lazy" alt="international coverage of Nepal elections"> </figure>  Read the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgqgl3j5nj4o">full story</a> here.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260303110320_b643581c73d3e4babef9e1f89414b33864c2807a5488cd1c0d2de6d34755a42c.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20260303110320_b643581c73d3e4babef9e1f89414b33864c2807a5488cd1c0d2de6d34755a42c" data-rendition-name="original" width="701" height="813" loading="lazy" alt="international coverage of Nepal elections"> </figure>  Read the <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/will-nepals-long-standing-nonalignment-survive-the-first-election-after-its-gen-z-uprising/">full story</a> here.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260303110320_934a42f754451d7354407413f3eaa0fd8fff798122f7e419fdaef82dfe1895ab.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="20260303110320_934a42f754451d7354407413f3eaa0fd8fff798122f7e419fdaef82dfe1895ab" data-rendition-name="original" width="631" height="759" loading="lazy" alt="international coverage of Nepal elections"> </figure>  Read the <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2026/02/in-nepal-polls-political-parties-root-for-mega-infrastructure/">full story</a> here.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260303110320_b5152c5addd7c988a4eb2bbd1dfbec78ea0113677792bf986b622dacbd9d2463.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="20260303110320_b5152c5addd7c988a4eb2bbd1dfbec78ea0113677792bf986b622dacbd9d2463" data-rendition-name="original" width="961" height="803" loading="lazy" alt="international coverage of Nepal elections"> </figure>  Read the <a href="https://scroll.in/article/1090389/nepals-election-is-referendum-on-its-future-and-democracy-in-south-asia">full story</a> here.

International commentary on Nepal election

What is common across all major political parties contesting the election on Friday is that they are all led by influential men.&nbsp;
Rabi Lamichhane + Balendra Shah duo head the RSP, Gagan Thapa leads the Nepali Congress (NC), the UML’ s K P Oli is still leader, Kulman Ghising is the founder and leader of the Ujyalo Nepal Party, and there is Harka Sampang of the Shram Sanskriti Party.&nbsp;
These men do not just lead the parties, they are the parties. Their authority within the party is largely uncontested and is sustained through loyalty to the deeply familiar Nepali figure of the Dai or Ba, the elder brother or father who is trusted, defended, and followed.
For the most part, they do not exert influence due to leadership skills but through a reinforcement of the idea that their leadership is the solution to the political crisis facing Nepal. Around these men is a loyal orbit of supporters, extending from central committee members to party cadres, mostly men.
Supporters amplify the idea of their chosen leadership and defend them at all cost in the public sphere, and especially on social media where polarising and controversial speech is rewarded by the design feature of the platforms.
Only 395 out of the 3,484 first-past-the-post (FPTP) candidates are women, in the upcoming elections. Of the biggest parties, the NC has only 6.67% women, UML 7.92%, NCP 6,90 %, RSP 9.73%, Shram Sanskriti Party 6.42%, UNP 5.79% and Janata Samajwadi party 8.41%.&nbsp;
The highest among the parties is not even 10%. The numbers represent the interconnected manospheres that pervade all layers of Nepali politics — it is not merely exclusion, but a systematic structuring of gender in politics.
Manosphere as an umbrella term for online communities that have increasingly promoted narrow and aggressive definitions of what it means to be a man, and the false narrative that feminism and gender equality have come at the cost of men’s rights. These communities promote the idea that emotional control, material wealth, physical appearance and dominance, especially over women, are markers of male worth.
It is an internet phenomenon, but it also relates to how men have hoarded power and taken up space in Nepali politics that constitutionally belongs to women, without exception of a single major party. While certainly the leaders of the parties are not spearheading manospheres, their support systems and structural organisation show characteristics akin to one.
A distinct feature of a manosphere is the attitude of rejection it carries towards liberalism, democratic pillars of inclusion and participation, political correctness, and they distort biology and evolution in argument of restrictive gender roles. They assign men as de facto leaders and women as followers, if not adversaries. Manospheres operate with an underlying understanding that feminism or women empowerment is detrimental to men.
This feature of the manosphere is starkly visible in how women in politics have experienced this election, in their campaigning on social media. From Ranju Darshana to Nisha Adhikari to Reema Biswokarma, their social media posts have comments from people trying to tell them of their place in society.
A pregnant politician and two artists turned politicians, are routinely told that their pursuit of leadership is not what the society needs. Even Prime Minister Sushila Karki was vilified publicly by Durga Prasai publicly, and was met with laughter from the circle of people around him.
Digital platforms have become an open arena for misogynistic attacks against women, often delegitimising their political participation rather than hosting democratic dialogue. Women who ascribe to the idea of the leadership archetype endorsed by the manosphere, are lauded for their participation. Responses to the speech of the RSP’s Sobita Gautam in Janakpur is an example.
Another symptom of the manosphere in Nepali politics is that it endorses violence, be it rhetorically, or equating it with leadership. By drooling over the violence spewed by them, instead of looking at evidence of capacity for governance, thoughts on inclusion, visions for development and much more, the definition of being a leader is narrowed.&nbsp;
When our politics are up for debate in social media platforms, unsurprisingly, vile and inflammatory language becomes a recipe for success, hence amplifying ‘leaders’ who revert to such tactics.
A study by researchers at Dublin City University found that newly created teen-boy accounts on TikTok and YouTube Shorts were algorithmically exposed to sexist and misogynistic content within about the first 23 minutes of use, even when they were not deliberately looking for it. So naturally, misogyny sells.&nbsp;
Besides, groups on Facebook have been mobilised during campaigning for elections. The most prominent men only group in Nepal MRR was disabled by Meta prior to the October 2022 election for violating their terms and conditions.
While it is not new that women in Nepali politics have endured misogyny, it has been magnified by how political discourses online occur in the manospheres. There is no conversation on how Gagan Thapa will not become the next Sher Bahadur Deuba, there is no debate on how the newly formed government will meet the constitutional requirement of having at least 33% women in the House — it is only about which man is more suitable to be the next prime minister of Nepal in a system that does not directly appoint them.
Even if we were to believe the misogyny online is not representative of our society’s views on women, the avalanche of toxicity on the platforms is something we have to learn to live with.&nbsp;
Women interested in politics must come prepared to endure hate. Likewise, if these comments are not real, and are bots or fake accounts that seek to demoralise women, then we must understand that the political powers of today are weaponising misogyny to prevent women from being leaders.
Ayusha Chalise is a communication and development scholar specialising in how politics is experienced in the digital space.

Ayusha Chalise

Democracy in the manosphere

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

rsp

Rough road ahead for new Nepal rulers

Jhapa-5 after its political earthquake

Balen takes Jhapa and Nepal

Nepal election live results

The diaspora and Nepal's Blue Sweep

Bells ring all over Nepal

The magic 138

OLD vs NEW vs NEW

International commentary on Nepal election

Democracy in the manosphere

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

Nepal election live results

Bells ring all over Nepal

The magic 138