<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131124/637233e59c7e80680e0c4905jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="760" height="443"/>Monkeypox cases are increasing worldwide and now with India seeing more infections, public health experts have warned that Nepal needs to be vigilant.While the disease does not pose the same degree of threat as Covid-19, officials say it is better to remain cautious. The World Health Organization (WHO) has already declared a health emergency.“Monkeypox symptoms take time to show. If the infection spreads in Nepal, it could be too late by the time it gets identified,” warns Sher Bahadur Pun, infectious disease specialist at Kathmandu’s Teku hospital. Infected people may be reluctant to be tested.Meanwhile, officials say they have already started preparations against monkeypox with increased surveillance at the Nepal-India border area and health workers on high alert.“We have instructed border personnel to check people with visible rashes and send them to dermatologists,” says Sameer Adhikari of the Health Ministry. “Lab personnel have been alerted and health workers have been provided with guidelines.”Monkeypox is not a new disease but is a rare zoonotic infection caused by a virus similar to smallpox but not as severe. The virus was first discovered in monkeys in 1958 and the first human case was identified in 1970. The disease was previously confined to central and West Africa.Monkeypox is primarily transmitted from rats and monkeys, and from one person to another by coming in contact with an infected person’s lesion, by touching a contaminated object or from respiratory droplets. It can also be spread by kissing, hugging, touching, or sex.A person taking care of an infected individual, children, infants, pregnant women and immune-compromised individuals are especially at a high risk of contracting monkeypox.Monkeypox does not yet have a vaccine but some smallpox jabs can prevent the infection, including the ACAM2000 and Jynneos shots. Because smallpox and monkeypox are caused by related viruses, smallpox inoculation is effective for both.Monkeypox is usually a mild condition and symptoms appear within 6 to 13 days and resolve within 3 weeks. Common symptoms include fever, headache, back and muscle ache and swollen lymph nodes and exhaustion. People quickly develop rashes that are contagious till they dry up and burst.Monkeypox is rarely fatal, however, it can be dangerous and cause pneumonia, and skin and eye conditions in some individuals. Previously up to 10% of infected individuals died due to the infection.At least 75 countries have reported monkeypox cases so far with Spain registering the highest at 3,125 followed by the US at 2,316, the UK 2,137, Germany 2,268, France 1,453, Canada 615, the Netherlands 712, Brazil 592 and Portugal 588.Most monkeypox cases do not need medical attention but if fever is too high, certain medicines can be taken. Individuals need to hydrate themselves, have a healthy diet and get good sleep. Scabs should not be scratched, hands should be kept clean and the skin dry.The good news is that many of the safety measures to prevent Covid-19 from transmitting such as masking up, avoiding crowded spaces and sanitising can also keep monkeypox at bay.Translated by Aria Parasai from the <a href="https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/131330?fbclid=IwAR2jdwW01dFzVzjh_nHfRSr2d5sGoj_KyHtVrwAjM8jGJsKWuL4evSLZXco">Nepali original</a> at Himalkhabar.comRead more: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/1-mask-up-2-avoid-crowds-3-get-boosters/">1. Mask Up. 2. Avoid Crowds. 3. Get Boosters</a>, Sonia Awale

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Preparing to prepare for monkeypox

<figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111410114/637205539c7e80680e0b28adjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Frontline workers waiting for their booster dose at a hospital in Kathmandu last week. Photos: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>As elsewhere in the world, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/3rd-covid-wave-infects-nepals-frontliners/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Omicron-led third wave</a> in Nepal is starting to peak, but experts say the pandemic is far from over. The Health Ministry had previously projected new cases to soar to 20,000 a day, and the Omicron surge to peak in mid-February. But the fact that the variant spread rapidly like wildfire right across the country giving a majority of the population milder symptoms meant that it equipped them with antibodies to fight the infection.At Nepal’s biggest infectious diseases centre at Teku Hospital, virologist Sher Bahadur Pun predicts that the third wave will most likely peak in a few days, or by the end of next week.“For the past week, I have observed that the number of people coming in for tests and consultation every day has decreased by a half,” Pun says. “Of course, not everyone is coming to the hospital, but this is the beginning of the end of this wave.” To be sure, the government’s daily Covid-19 figures are gross under-estimations. Mostly symptomatic patients are testing, thus registering a very high positivity rate. Infected people with flu-like symptoms are isolating at home without a PCR test. There are also people self-testing with kits available at pharmacies, and these infections are not in the official tally.Even so, figures from elsewhere show <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/3rd-wave-in-2-years/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the Omicron surge</a> lasts only for a month or two. South Africa, where the variant was first detected in December, is over the hump. The UK and parts of the US have also passed their peaks. Many countries, including Australia, are now removing restrictions."It is too early to be sure about exactly when the high number of cases will subside completely," Andrew Pollard, of the team that developed the Astra Zeneca vaccine, told Nepali Times in an email interview from Oxford. "The main issue with rapid spread of Omicron is for the unvaccinated who may be at risk of severe disease, particularly if they are older adults and those with other health conditions."The spread of Omicron in Kathmandu Valley is expected to reach an equilibrium soon, with a steep fall in cases, says Bangkok-based public health expert Sushil Koirala. But he warns slower-moving outbreaks may continue outside the valley where the population is thinly spread. “These next 10 days are critical. It will tell us if the Omicron variant is indeed a quiet pass to a pandemic end-game, or we still have a big human cost to pay,” Koirala adds. “There is still little clarity on how severe this variant will be to those who are still unvaccinated and those who had the vaccines many months ago.” <figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111410114/637205569c7e80680e0b28aejpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The World Health Organisation (WHO) last week issued an <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/12/1108932" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">optimistic projection</a> that the pandemic would probably be over during 2022 — provided inequalities in the vaccine coverage and treatment are addressed.  Global health researcher and economist Christopher J L Murray <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)00100-3/fulltext" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">writing for the journal Lancet</a> also said that after the Omicron wave, ‘Covid-19 will return but the pandemic will not.’ Pollard also explains that once health systems can cope with Covid-19, the pandemic could be considered over, but that doesn’t mean that the virus will be gone. "We have a pandemic because of pressure on health systems and deaths. With growing global immunity as a result of vaccination and previous waves of infection, both severe disease and deaths should decline during 2022," he says. Despite this, health experts in Nepal warn that severe infections needing hospitalisation have a lag of a few weeks after the surge in infections. And despite being a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/omicron-may-not-be-as-risky-but-take-care/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">milder strain</a> that primarily only affects the upper respiratory tract, Omicron can still lead to serious diseases in the elderly and people with co-morbidities. Indeed, ICU admissions and those needing ventilator support in hospital have tripled in one month, although nowhere near the figures in April-May. Also, the seven-day average for daily fatalities have remained below five.  Says infectious disease specialist Anup Subedee: “It will still take some time and a few more variants before the pandemic comes to an end. So our health system should be ever ready with the management and treatment of Covid-19, isolation and contact tracing.” Virologist Pun at Teku agrees: “We are now moving from pandemic to endemic, but this does not mean that we can sound the all clear. We must continue mass vaccinations and safety measures.” The general consensus is that increased vaccine coverage with boosting, more testing, whole genome sequencing to detect variants, and public adherence to safety measures will determine whether there will be a new surge, or if the virus will taper off. Nepal has 20 million doses of vaccines in stock for those waiting for first and second jabs, and has started booster shots for high risk groups. However, communication on location, eligibility and requirements for <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/all-vaccines-prevent-severe-covid/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">vaccination</a> centres is confusing and inadequate. With reports from India, Denmark and the Philippines of the even more transmissible ‘stealth Omicron’ sub-variant BA.2 that can evade PCR detection, Nepal needs to continue vigilance. This is also important to determine if the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/delta-variants-wake-up-call-for-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Delta variant</a> is still circuiting and how dominant it is. “Our Covid figures from the last four days strongly suggest that we have passed the peak,” confirms Sameer Mani Dixit of the Centre for Molecular  Dynamics. “But we must keep a close watch on next week’s numbers to know for sure if the cases are just levelling off, still peaking, or if it was just a momentary decline.”

Sonia Awale

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Omnipresent Omicron starts to lose its edge

<figure><img width="1050" height="685" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110915114/636bb3d59c7e80680e07bb68jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption></figcaption></figure>Until vaccines and therapies are available, we in Nepal like everywhere else in the world, have to learn to live with this scourge. Extending the lockdown is not the answer unless other measures such as mass testing and sero-prevalence surveys are done.Which is why good sense has prevailed and the CDOs of Kathmandu Valley met at the Home Ministry on Wednesday and decided to be <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/experts-caution-against-extending-nepal-lockdown/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">smarter about the lockdown</a>, allowing people greater freedom and asking them to take necessary precautions to remain safe.From Thursday, odd-even number vehicles will be allowed back on the roads, including bigger size public buses. Provisions shops will be allowed to be open from 5-11AM, and 5-7PM. Restaurants will also be allowed to do takeaways and online deliveries for limited periods, but with strict compliance. Department stores, shopping malls and other shops can open Mondays, Wednesdays and Saturdays. Detailed do's and don'ts have also been issued, but somewhat ambiguously, the directive also states that 'services similar to the above' will also be allowed. Experts have also questioned how wise it is to limit opening time for shops because it could lead to overcrowding.But something is not quite right about the way this decision has been taken. By handing over discretion on lockdowns to CDOs across the country who are under direct command of the Home Ministry, the government is passing buck. Leaders in Kathmandu forget that Nepal is a now a federal state, decision-making has been devolved to local governmentsThe most effective strategy to deal with the pandemic is to let elected local leaders to decide how to handle it, with the central government only ensuring that they have adequate resources, equipment and medical personnel. Unfortunately, the national level leaders are taking self-isolation a bit too seriously, and are nowhere to be seen. They have centralised power, and have gone into hiding with it.What we do see every day is the Nepal Ministry of Health’s coronavirus press briefing. It is an endless listicle of statistics read out by Jageshwor Sharma Gautam, who may be a fine obstetrician and gynaecologist, but has such dreary delivery that he should have been the last choice for a spokesperson.During the Vietnam War, the US military had daily press briefings at Saigon’s Rex Hotel which were called the ‘Five O’clock Follies’ in which a spokesman read out a long list of American victories that day. Invariably, the number of Viet Cong dead would exceed American fatalities by a factor of ten.Prof Gautam’s four o’clock briefings are beginning to sound like that. During the Covid-19 emergency, this should have been the job for a person with extraordinary communication skills, and a screen personality that commands credibility and respect. Most readers will agree that Prof Gautam has none of those attributes, even though by now many of us have got used to his visage and voice.Do a video search on Google and you will find a clip of the good doctor picking his nose ahead of his daily televised briefing. Good thing he was not live on tv then, but this unhygienic on camera performance has been <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0x_n0oPVLE" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v%3DQ0x_n0oPVLE&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1599742744580000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHlV-QPqo4OypbSeAH4DIsMlohZJA">immortalised on YouTube</a>.To be sure, replacing the spokesperson is not the most serious or most urgent problem that needs to be fixed right now. But it is an indication of the lack of professionalism for a job that needs a person with effective communication skills to combat an infectious disease in which communication is the first line of defence.The soporific teleprompter recitation of the day’s statistics delivered in a deadpan monotone does not reflect the seriousness with which we should be responding to this contagion.The media is also partly to blame for carrying the briefings live, and using it as a filler in the evening tv bulletins. There is very little analysis of the figures, how the total confirmed cases are functions of how many tests are done, and who is tested. Or what the positive rates are for contact traced people. Also, asking questions like why <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/ministry-of-education-gets-an-f/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">schools</a> should be closed in districts with no or very few cases.To some extent, scaring the people is effective. Otherwise, with the easing of restrictions in Kathmandu Valley, we will again get the kind of reckless behaviour that followed the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/lockdown-may-be-over-but-pandemic-is-not/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">lifting of the lockdown on 21 July</a> that resulted in the current surge. But there is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-health-workers-battle-covid-19-but-also-stigma/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">no need to unnecessarily panic the public</a>. After all, SARS-CoV-2 has an identical mode of transmission as another deadly pathogen, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/tb/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the tuberculosis bacillus</a>, which has for centuries been endemic in Nepal.As the Nepali Congress MP and former health minister Gagan Thapa wrote on a social media post this week: ‘The political leadership is hiding behind the CDO and the bureaucracy, they don’t have the guts to address the people directly … the people’s patience is running out and it could explode at any moment.’

Nepal’s leaders are in isolation

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141112/636ba7ab9c7e80680e073797jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/>UPDATE 29 August: Covid-19 fatality in Nepal now stands at 207. A total of 22 people are undergoing treatment with ventilator support: three in Province 1, 17 in Bagmati and two in Province 5.Although the initial wave of coronavirus cases in Nepal <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/returnees-may-be-taking-coronavirus-to-rural-nepal/">were from across the border in India</a>, public health experts now say it makes no sense to blame imported infection because the virus is now spreading in the community.India is now the country with the third largest caseload with over 3.3 million confirmed cases, and up to 70,000 new cases every day– the highest in the world. But compared to its 1.3 billion population, this is still a low figure and India’s fatality rate of 1.87% is one of the lowest.Yet, age-adjusted mortality rate paints an entirely different picture, which looks very similar to that of Nepal – SARS-CoV-2 is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/why-are-younger-people-in-poor-countries-dying-of-covid-19/">killing far higher percentages of younger people</a> than in the developed countries.Covid-19 similarities between India and Nepal do not end there: already poor health infrastructure in both countries <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-virus-vortex/">are overwhelmed</a>, there is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/learning-from-hiv-to-fight-covid-19-in-nepal/">societal stigma</a>, health workers are infected, politicians have died, and the movement of migrant workers has affected people on both sides of the border.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141112/636ba7ae9c7e80680e073798jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="707">What happens in India has always impacted Nepal because the two countries share an open border and this pandemic is no different, especially given Indian states bordering Nepal are some of the most affected: Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Bihar have 466,725 cases between them.Nepal saw the first surge of Covid-19 cases in late March when hundreds of thousands of Nepalis working in India come back home following lockdowns in both the countries. Between 8 March and 2 July alone, an estimated 500,000 Nepalis <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/workers-return-to-jobless-nepal/">returned from India</a>. While they were quarantined in the first few weeks, later arrivals were allowed to go straight home to their villages for self-isolation.“Nepal will always be at the risk because of the porous open border, even during the lockdown thousands of people managed to sneak in illegally,” says Sher Bahadur Pun of the Health Ministry. “Even if we are able to control the spread of the virus in Nepal and bring the cases down, we will never be safe until the virus spreading is not under control in India.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141112/636ba7b19c7e80680e073799jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1366"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The second wave of infections happened after Nepal’s lockdown was <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-ends-covid-19-lockdown/">relaxed on 21 June</a>, at a time when Covid-19 was raging across Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. Thousands of Indian workers poured across the border to rejoin jobs in factories along the Tarai industrial corridors.The border district of Parsa, which had brought the virus under control, was suddenly hit by an outbreak that spread like wildlife. From Birganj, the virus travelled easily to Kathmandu, making the Valley the next hotspot.As of 27 August, Nepal has registered 35,529 confirmed cases with 183 fatalities. Ten of Nepal’s 77 districts now have over 1,000 cases, Kathmandu leads with 3,455 cases, and the Valley saw a record 377 new cases on Thursday. Nationwide, the recovery rate has dropped from 73% in July to 56.7% now, since most new cases are symptomatic, or patients are serious enough to need ICU care.It is now clear that the clusters have merged and are spreading in the community, and just like with polio Nepal will not be able to fully defeat SARS-CoV-19 until it is under control in India.Because of this, public health experts say Nepal has no choice but to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/prevention-while-searching-for-a-cure/">enforce distancing, mask wearing, hand-washing</a> and other precautions. The current lockdown in Kathmandu has been extended till 2 September.“If we can successfully implement safety measures and control the movement of the people at the border and inside the country, what is happening in India should not affect us so much,” says public health expert Sameer Mani Dixit.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141112/636ba7b59c7e80680e07379ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1509" height="1098"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Despite India’s heavy daily caseload and fatalities, the country has opened limited domestic and international flights, trains, public transport and shops.There are also lessons to be learned from Delhi, which used to be a hotspot. The recovery rate there has surged from 55% in June to 90% this month. Delhi’s aggressive testing and tracing and home isolation are measures Nepal could easily emulate.The ‘<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/how-did-kerala-beat-covid-19-spread/">Kerala Model</a>’ is also worth noting: public health authorities there prioritised early detection through extensive testing, widespread contact tracing, and 28-day quarantines for everyone infected. Despite being the first state to report a case of Covid-19, Kerala has among the lowest fatality rates in India.“These models are particularly useful because over half of our cases are still asymptomatic, which means we need to keep up active contact tracing, mass testing and surveillance,” says Sher Bahadur Pun. “We also still need to better communicate safety measures, having a figure that the public trusts endorse masks and distancing will be very effective because lockdowns are not a long-term solution. Behavioural change is.”Indeed, lockdowns only seem to provide a false sense of security and would have been unnecessary if the public had adopted the safety measures after 21 July. The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/economic-cost-of-5-months-of-nepal-lockdown/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">economic cost of five months of Nepal lockdown</a>, and the lack of treatment of existing diseases threaten to far outweigh benefits of the restrictions.Recently, the Nepal Health Research Council decided to allow international researchers to conduct <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/a-covid-19-exit-strategy-for-nepal/">Covid-19 vaccine</a>trials in Nepal as part of a global effort to stop the virus. There are at least 30 vaccines in clinical trials across India.Says Sameer Mani Dixit: “It looks like we are very close to peaking in Nepal, which is not to say there won’t be sporadic spikes, it will continue to happen until we have a vaccine. But in the meantime mandatorily wearing masks and not crowding will be the way of life into the future.”

As India peaks, Covid-19 spreads rapidly in Nepal

India and Pakistan are twins separated at birth. Tensions between them have been at a hair trigger ever since independence and has erupted into full scale conflict at least four times in the past 80 years.
The 22 April terrorist attack in Kashmir that killed 25 Indian tourists and a Nepali citizen, threatens to escalate tension between the two nuclear-armed nations. India has squarely blamed Pakistan for the attacks, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has given his military “operational freedom” to respond. Pakistan has said it has credible intelligence of an Indian military strike and its officials have promised a “full spectrum” response — a code for a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/thinking-the-thinkable">nuclear retaliation</a>.
For Nepal, the killing of its national in the Pahalgam attack comes as another stark reminder that in conflicts from Afghanistan to Iraq, from <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/how-to-agree-an-armistice-in-ukraine">Ukraine</a> to Israel, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/10-nepalis-from-one-town-fighting-in-ukraine">Nepalis are getting caught in the crossfire</a>. The last time full-scale fighting broke out between <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/peacemongers-at-india-pakistan-border">India and Pakistan</a> on Kargil in 1999, at least 22<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/india-s-trial-by-fire-for-soldiers-from-nepal?%27%5C%22="> Nepalis fighting for the Indian Army</a> were killed in action.
Three of Nepal’s immediate neighbours (China, India, Pakistan) have nuclear weapons, and they do not have good relations. With China supplying weapons, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/war-and-warming">missile technology</a> and other support to Pakistan, this triangular friction could set off a regional conflagration.&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00573-0" target="_blank">Research at Rutgers University</a> has calculated that even a week-long tactical nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan would throw up so much smoke and debris into the atmosphere that it would block out the sun for years, and lead to a collapse of the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/grow-nourish-sustain-together-world-food-day">global food system</a>. This does not take into account the radioactive fallout that prevailing winds would blow up to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lives-on-the-line-in-the-himalaya">the Himalaya</a>, contaminating glaciers that are the sources of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/saving-what-is-left-of-himalayan-rivers">Asia’s main rivers</a>.
The impact of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/climate-breakdown-linked-to-thame-flood">climate breakdown </a>on High Asia was already ringing alarm bells about its <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/himalayan-icecap-melting-faster-than-thought">shrinking ice cap</a> reducing the dry season flow of water downstream. Water was going to be the next strategic commodity, geopolitical experts warned, and the next wars in Asia would be over water.
That water war is already happening. India retaliated to the Kashmir attack by suspending the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/24/world/asia/india-pakistan-indus-waters-treaty.html" target="_blank">Indus Waters Treaty</a> of 1960 mediated by the World Bank that has withstood at least three wars between India and Pakistan. The treaty gives India control over the three eastern tributaries of the Indus (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beas_River" target="_blank">Beas</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ravi_River" target="_blank">Ravi</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sutlej" target="_blank">Sutlej</a>), while Pakistan got water from the Indus and two of its western tributaries (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indus_River" target="_blank">Indus</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chenab_River" target="_blank">Chenab</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jhelum_River" target="_blank">Jhelum</a>.
Pakistan was assured of 70% of the annual flow, and India could use a reasonable amount of water for<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=15231"> irrigation and hydropower</a>. &nbsp;Within days of its threat, India stopped water flowing down to Pakistan from the Chenab river and is reportedly preparing to do the same on the Jhelum.
The sabre-rattling has reached a crescendo. Besides threats and counter-threats there are also symbolic drills, with the Indian Air Force practicing landing on an expressway in Uttar Pradesh by its Rafale, Su-30 and Jaguar fighter jets to demonstrate ‘operational readiness’. In response Pakistan test-fired its Abdali ballistic missile that can carry a nuclear warhead and has a range of 450km.&nbsp;
The danger is that with ultra-nationalist rhetoric and the beating the war drums by both sides, India’s government and Pakistan’s military may have to ‘do something’ to appease domestic public opinion. But any tactical strike, an artillery exchange, or territorial incursion could quickly escalate out of control.
Expecting an Indian retaliation for the Pahalgam killings, Pakistan is using<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/interfaith-collaboration-for-nuclear-disarmament"> nuclear deterrence </a>and warning of “catastrophic consequences”. The two neighbours came close to a nuclear exchange in 2019 after an attack on the Indian military in Kashmir, and prompt international intervention led by the United States cooled tensions.&nbsp;
This time, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/trump-shock-wave-hits-nepal">Trump administration</a> is too distracted and not as engaged. Pakistan has denied it was responsible for the terrorist attack and called on Washington to stop a possible Indian retaliation. India and Pakistan have stopped overflights by each other’s airlines, and some international carriers have even stopped flying over Pakistan fearing an air war.
Washington, Beijing, the UN and the EU have all urged restraint. Iran, which has good relations with both India and Pakistan has sent its foreign minister to urge both countries not to go into a tit-for-tat war. Iran has its own nuclear flashpoint to worry about with tensions in Israel, &nbsp;Yemen and Syria.
India and Pakistan both share similar problems of joblessness, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/why-nepal-s-poverty-rate-is-stuck">poverty </a>and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/climate-change-new-threat-to-nepal-s-rhinos">environmental threats</a>. Neither side needs the threat of a senseless war, and we in the neighbourhood do not need it either.&nbsp;
Kunda Dixit
This Editorial is brought to you by <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/" target="_blank">Nepali Times</a>, in collaboration with <a href="https://inpsjapan.com/en/" target="_blank">INPS Japan</a> and <a href="https://sgi-peace.org/" target="_blank">Soka Gakkai International</a>, in consultative status with UN ECOSOC.

Nukes in the neighbourhood

The streets of Patan are alive this month with lavender jacaranda trees under rain-washed skies as <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/the-red-god-rises-again-in-patan">the chariot of Rato Matsyendranath</a> is pulled across town. This is the festival of the rain god, and inevitably the heavens opened up and pre-monsoon showers pelted the chariot as it started being pulled in Pulchok last week. Thousands of devotees, onlookers and the chariot procession organisers thronged the streets on the first day last week. The rhythmic cymbals and drums exuded a vibrant energy as the enormous four wheels turned and the chariot lurched.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025051007050_81df97744db16f732a419dc1f1579d235ce3df37642b078f50b83bd4bd026688.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2025051007050_81df97744db16f732a419dc1f1579d235ce3df37642b078f50b83bd4bd026688" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1503" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  The<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/Red-rain-god,3141"> red rain god</a> has Hindu and Buddhist antecedents, alternatively called Bungadya and<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/kathmandu-s-gravity-defying-chariot-festival"> Karunamaya</a> — reflecting Kathmandu Valley’s syncretic mixture of the two religions.&nbsp; “Bungadya is a profoundly <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/12-full-opinion/marketing-the-intangible">intangible form of heritage</a>,” explains heritage expert Monalisa Maharjan. “It embodies traditional knowledge,<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/reviving-nepal-s-craft"> artisanal skills passed down through generations</a>. Local communities and specific families have specified roles in being custodians of the heritage, ensuring their survival over the centuries.” There are many legends and stories about this annual tradition. Lichhavi king Narendra Dev is supposed to have brought Rato Matsyendranath from Assam to Kathmandu Valley to convince Guru Gorakhnath to lift a spell that created a two-year drought in Kathmandu.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250510050520_347a9a398f8a9abc4a7fb4e2774fde8264cccbdce8bdab23851ab3f0e73c3e8a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20250510050520_347a9a398f8a9abc4a7fb4e2774fde8264cccbdce8bdab23851ab3f0e73c3e8a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1503" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  Matsyendranath was Gorakhnath’s mentor, and upon seeing him, the serpents were released, unleashing the rains. The chariot festival honours the return of this life-giving rain. The deity is seen as an icon for thriving agriculture, t<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon">he arrival of monsoon</a> showers, and the welfare of the community. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-reign-of-the-god-of-rain">The reign of the god of rain</a>, Vidhu Prakash Kayastha Till this day, the Rato Matsyendranath festival is no ordinary celebration. Patan does not sleep for a month as the chariot is pulled through various neighbourhoods. It unfolds at a state level with the president (formerly the king) attending the climax of the Bhoto Jatra in Jawalakhel later this month.&nbsp; The intergenerational transmission of tradition is unique in the world, and the reason the festival is one of the most vibrant cultural expressions that thrives despite inroads of modernity. The other unique aspect is that it is a transnational festival, binding Patan with Guwahati in the Indian state of Assam.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025051005058_8bc685ada13045d863b28e3eed91c931da2b510714586af6fd7eb5d1e298a24a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="2025051005058_8bc685ada13045d863b28e3eed91c931da2b510714586af6fd7eb5d1e298a24a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1503" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  “Unlike Nepal, where the deity commands grandeur and devotion, many in Assam are unaware of Rato Matsyendranath,” says Khagen Sharma of Gauhati University, which convened <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-assam-connection-revived">a symposium in February in Guwahati on the rain god</a>. Attending was a delegation led by Lalitpur Mayor Chiribabu Maharjan, organisers of the festival, and builders of the chariot. After the symposium, a committee was formed to explore and revive the tradition in Assam as well. Although the team had planned to visit Nepal this month, logistical challenges delayed the trip. Still, there are plans to build a Guru Matsyendranath statue in Assam to reestablish regular worship practices in the Guwahati shrine.&nbsp; The vines used to build the chariot in Patan are sourced from the jungles of Assam. But Sharma notes that in recent years unclear regulations have blocked the official import of the vines, although they are still brought to Nepal informally. The <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/makers-of-machhindranath,2204">chariot making</a> has also had a taste of modernisation in recent times. In the past, even a single nail or piece of steel was avoided. But over time, the wooden structure, particularly the shaft between the wheels, has been replaced with bronze. When that too proved unstable, metal clamps were introduced, which have become a pragmatic compromise.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250510050524_b2a819a5791612f14c81d30fc393dbd3f99f0c64b90a9110e8b0855d944bfa93.jpg" data-media-id="editor_12" data-image-id="20250510050524_b2a819a5791612f14c81d30fc393dbd3f99f0c64b90a9110e8b0855d944bfa93" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="998" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  Another welcome change is the focus on safety. Builders climbing the chariot’s tower now wear harnesses and there are efforts in crowd control. The most visible change in recent years has been the involvement of Patan’s enthusiastic youth in the festival — the tradition is now passing to a new generation. Says Matsyendranath expert Vidhu Kayastha: “There is more energy, the young people in red t-shirts this year were very organised, these modern touches aren’t diluting our culture, they’re keeping it alive in new forms.” He adds, “We are <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/searching-for-a-homeland-away-from-home">reconnecting with our roots</a>, we have more resources, more awareness than ever before. We must not be swept away by western values that may not serve us, and in some ways, cause more harm than good. We must revive our own culture.”&nbsp;

Divine chariot

The discourse around <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/nepal-s-corruption-carousel">corruption in Nepal</a> is mainly about politicians and bureaucrats accepting bribes and kickbacks. The private sector usually does not get as much blame.
But the prevalent <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-s-crony-communism-exposed">climate of cronyism</a> in Nepal means that the politicians and businesses are often hand in glove. The private sector is generally considered to be in favour of free market competition to encourage <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-has-to-curb-corruption-before-wooing-investors">investment</a> and innovation so that wealth is generated.
But insider trading, cartelling, and conflict of interest have become a given in Nepal’s private sector, and it all happens with the blessings of the government. In fact, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-business-of-politics-in-nepal">tycoons have become legislators and politicians have become businessmen</a>.
“Such collusion kills the free market, and does not allow entrepreneurship and innovation to flourish,” says Kush Kumar Joshi, former president of the Federation of Nepal Chamber of Commerce and Industries (FNCCI).
An example of this is the Dangote Group of Nigeria, which was planning for a cement factory in Nepal. A Dangote executive told us that Nepal’s cement cartel got the government to sabotage their plans.&nbsp;
Earlier, the same cartel tried to do the same thing to the Chinese companies Hongxi and Huaxin, arguing that Nepal’s cement industry was capable of meeting domestic demand and did not require foreign investment. Ultimately, Hongxi partnered with Nepal’s Shivam and Huaxin with former FNCCI president Suraj Vaidya.
In 2019, industrialists successfully lobbied lawmakers to prevent foreign investment in agriculture by amending the Foreign Investment and Technology Transfer Act. Two years later,<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/aid-rarely-aids-agriculture-in-nepal"> foreign investment in agriculture</a> was opened, but only if 75% of the products were exported.
There is a long history of local lobbyists obstructing the entry of multinationals, like J Walter Thompson advertising agency and the international shipping company Maersk. Microbreweries, which can be operated by restaurants, have been prohibited at the behest of larger beer companies. The <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=1292">private dairy sector </a>opposed the government-owned Dairy Development Corporation when it tried to begin production in Pokhara a decade ago.
“The<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/business-as-unusual?fbclid=IwAR3qEnUrVu9pRhZU669FR1F4zF95uPJKBpbQbq-q1Bm26p7OMVw-8JBP7FU"> business sector</a> is a reflection of Nepali society and government which do not care about <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=6725">ethical business practices</a>,” says former CNI president Hari Bhakta Sharma. “The environment is not conducive to the few businessmen who are honest.”
Lobbying by businesses is not unusual in a democracy, but its basic character should be for the collective good, not individual greed.
“This kind of profit-over-everything mindset is fatal for businesses. Entrepreneurs must prioritise social, worker, and customer welfare,” adds Sharma.
Industrialists have actively lobbied for the removal of policies that prevent loan misuse and require bank loans in specific areas. They have partially reversed such directives.
Until the economic slowdown, Nepal’s fastest growing industry was construction. But even there, cement and steel rod manufacturers colluded by price-fixing. Banker Parshuram Kunwar Chhetri says Nepal’s corporates just do not believe in free market principles, adding: “Their ideas go against competition benefiting consumers. It is all about price fixing, cartels and monopolies.”
Read also:<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/poor-cash-rich-nepal"> Poor cash-rich Nepal</a>, Sonia Awale
Ideologically, Nepal’s Communist parties are supposed to be against the neoliberal free market, globalisation and the ‘imperialism’ of international financial institutions like the World Bank and the IMF. But cronyism is rife there, too.
Two years ago, the FNCCI and the Confederation of Nepalese Industries (CNI) accused the IMF of interfering in Nepal's domestic economic policy after the Fund demanded economic reforms as conditions for its Extended Credit Facility.
Says economic analyst Sujeev Shakya: “How can we expect an honest and ethical business sector when we as a society tend to laud those who earn money through illicit and corrupt means rather than lament their <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/Editorial-moral,667">moral bankruptcy</a>?”
In October 2012, the Chaudhary Group’s CG Electronics warehouse in Kathmandu caught fire. A surveyor certified that the company had suffered Rs580 million damage, which was paid out by United Insurance Company.
The Commission for the Investigation of Abuse of Authority (CIAA) directed the Nepal Insurance Authority to investigate suspected insurance fraud, and found that the fire damage was actually Rs340 million.
The Patan High Court ordered Chaudhary Group to return the excess amount, a decision the company challenged in the Supreme Court. But in March, the apex court also found the Chaudhary Group guilty of insurance fraud.
Chaudhary Group's Binod Chaudhary, Nepal's only known dollar billionaire, is a Nepali Congress central committee member and MP, former president of FNCCI and founder of the CNI.
Then last February, the Central Investigation Bureau questioned Binod Chaudhary and arrested his brother Arun Chaudhary of CG Holdings over their alleged involvement in the illegal acquisition of the state-run shoe factory, following an investigative report by Ukaalo Online.
In 2021, Chaudhary and his family’s offshore business dealings landed them <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-s-richest-man-in-the-pandora-papers">in the Pandora Papers list</a> by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) for hidden assets in Panama.
Says Krishna Khanal, assistant professor of business ethics at King’s College: “Cronyism, political collusion, and anti-competitive cartelling are routine in the private sector. There is no other objective than to make money at any cost.”
Conflict of interest is rife in Nepal’s share market. In 2023, Ghorahi Cement owned by Triveni Group issued primary shares at a premium price. There is also evidence that a river was diverted for the construction of its business tycoon Upendra Mahato’s Mediciti Hospital. Bhatbhateni owner Min Bahadur Gurung is also involved in Lalita Niwas land grab scam in Baluwatar.
Meanwhile, Shankar Group Vice President Sulabh Agrawal, former honorary consul of Kyrgyzstan, was arrested by the police during the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-s-uneven-covid-19-deaths">Covid-19 pandemic </a>after he was found selling 67 infrared thermometers from a vehicle with diplomatic credentials. He was later acquitted by the court for price-gouging.
Nepal’s most influential corporates were accused of evading billions in VAT by forcing invoices. Freedom Forum invoked the Right to Information to collect evidence of the involvement of CG Foods, Him Electronics of Shekhar Golchha, Morang Auto Works of Bishnu Agarwal, Sulabh Agarwal’s Jagdamba Steels, United Builders of Shakuntalal Hirachan, United Traders of Anuj Agarwal, and Min Bahadur Gurung’s Bhatbhateni Supermarket.
Most of these businessmen have held leadership positions in the FNCCI. Former FNCCI presidents Shekhar Golchha, Pashupati Murarka and Pradeep Jung Pandey, along with members of the federation's governing council Birendra Kumar Shanghai, Shashikant Agrawal, and others all have unpaid dues of Rs22 billion to Nepal Electricity Authority.&nbsp;
Former FNCCI president Chandiraj Dhakal was blacklisted by the Credit Information Bureau Nepal for non-payment of bank loans.
He had previously obtained permission to use 36 hectares of government forest land in Chandragiri for 40 years without competition, and had received an exemption to build a ropeway there. The 54th report of the Auditor General, stating that Nepal had suffered as a result of these decisions, had suggested that the state be investigated for leasing land at low rates allowing large revenue exemptions.
Another ex-FNCCI president Pradeep Jung Pandey was sentenced to prison in 2014 following a corruption case spanning three decades. Former FNCCI treasurer Gyanendra Lal Pradhan is currently facing charges of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/black-white-and-grey">money laundering </a>through insider trading.&nbsp;
Former FNCCI president Pashupati Murarka was acquitted by the special court in a corruption case, but it is still pending in the Supreme Court. His cement company was found to have exploited the environment by over-mining limestone at various times.&nbsp;
His Siddhartha Minerals was also found to have encroached forests in Palpa, following which the District Forest Office registered a criminal case against him and co-investor Manoj Kedia. Arrest warrants were issued for six people, including Murarka and Kedia, but Muraka was released on bail, while Kedia is on the run.
Current FNCCI president Chandra Prasad Dhakal during his tenure as a member of the Securities Board of Nepal (SEBON) was accused of conflict of interest in being a regulator in the sale of shares in a company that his family had invested in.&nbsp;
Dhakal is the chair of the IME Group, which owns banks, insurance, remittance companies, several cable cars and hotels, and has been embroiled in numerous ropeway-related controversies — most recently for allegedly using political connections to suppress local opposition to a<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/progress-and-or-preservation"> cable car project in Pathibhara</a>.
Another example of fraud committed in collusion with political leadership is Himalayan Reinsurance, the investors of which include prominent businessmen who have led FNCCI and CNI in the past, including Shekhar Golchha, Pashupati Murarka, Bhawani Rana, Rajesh Kumar Agrawa, Rohit Gupta, Amit Mor, Satish Mor, Shashikant Agrawal, and Sulabh Agrawal.
During <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lessons-not-learned-from-the-pandemic">the Covid-19 pandemic</a>, the Nepal Insurance Authority requested approval for a reinsurance company through an emergency notice, even though such a government-operated company already existed. But Himalayan Re-insurance was granted permission without any explanation as to why another reinsurance company was needed, or how it was selected out of the five companies that submitted proposals.
It was found that the Securities Registration and Issue Regulation was amended to allow this company to issue shares at a premium price, allowing the shares priced at Rs100 to be sold for Rs206. Himalayan Re-insurance raised Rs6 billion. The Companies Act stipulates that primary shares can be issued at a premium price only after three years of operation, a criteria Himalayan Re-insurance did not fulfil.
Open competition, consumer protection, worker welfare, environmental consciousness, anti-corruption, and tax responsibility are the foundations of a country’s healthy business world. But most captains of Nepal’s industry themselves do not uphold those principles.
The business community here is instead actively engaged in lobbying and colluding with the political leadership, and forcing the appointment of their candidates to lead various regulatory bodies.&nbsp;
“While the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/reviving-nepal-s-craft">new generation of entrepreneurs</a> operating in sectors linked to external markets such as IT seem sensitive to and compliant with professional codes, ethics, professionalism, and honesty are sorely lacking in Nepal’s business sector in general,” says Rameshore Khanal, former Secretary of the Ministry of Finance.
He adds: “Even those following ethical practices have been forced to seek political favours for fear of being left behind. There will thus be<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/it-does-not-pay-to-have-integrity"> no integrity in the private sector </a>until there is honesty in politics.”
Following the publication of this report in Himalkhabar, a Supreme Court judge on the condition of anonymity said: “Businessmen do not adhere to the principles of judicial independence, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/federalism-rule-of-law-and-the-judiciary">rule of law </a>and <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/government-to-governance-editorial,4200">good governance</a>. They use intermediaries and political connections to approach judges and win cases. Meanwhile, nobody raises these issues in public.” &nbsp;

Nepal's only growth industry: private sector corruption

In 2025, two seemingly disconnected acts of violence shattered the illusion of stability in the region. In March, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/16f7f947-1e96-4206-9844-891378adc683" target="_blank">militants hijacked a passenger train</a> near the Bolan Pass in Balochistan, executing soldiers in cold blood. A month later, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/world/asia/kashmir-terrorist-attack.html" target="_blank">gunmen in Kashmir’s</a> Pahalgam Valley massacred tourists. 
In both Islamabad and New Delhi, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/4/25/were-cursed-kashmiris-under-attack-across-india-after-pahalgam-killings" target="_blank">the reaction was reflexive:</a> condemn the violence, <a href="https://www.economist.com/asia/2025/04/22/india-and-pakistan-could-come-to-blows-over-kashmir" target="_blank">blame external enemies</a>, declare the situation contained. But South Asia’s leaders are not fighting terrorists alone. They are fighting the consequences of their own betrayals.
Across <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26272897" target="_blank">Balochistan</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-south-asia-11693674" target="_blank">Kashmir</a>, <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-asia/india/346-finding-way-out-festering-conflict-indias-manipur" target="_blank">Manipur</a>, and beyond, decades of <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/projects/enforced-disappearance-in-south-asia/" target="_blank">enforced disappearances</a>, broken promises, and brute militarisation have hollowed out the social contracts meant to hold these nations together. The grievances that drove rebellions from the 1940s through the 1990s – demands for dignity, recognition, and political agency – were never meaningfully addressed. They were buried beneath asphalt and propaganda, paved over by development projects and security checkpoints.
States may claim victory. But their victories are mirages, dissolving the moment anyone looks too closely. South Asia’s unfinished wars are not relics of a violent past. They are live ammunition, loaded into the future.
<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/24/he-only-wanted-revenge-the-bloody-insurgency-in-balochistan-gaining-lethal-momentum" target="_blank">Balochistan</a> has been at war with Pakistan for most of its modern history. Rich in gas, minerals, and coastline, the province has been plundered for decades under the language of national development. 
Projects like the <a href="https://eastasiaforum.org/2020/11/26/pakistans-three-evils-cpec-and-good-governance/" target="_blank">China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)</a> promise progress but deliver exclusion: minerals are mined, ports are secured, but Baloch homes are raided. 
The insurgency endures not because of foreign conspiracies, as Islamabad endlessly insists, but because the Pakistani state remains incapable of seeing its <a href="https://thebalochistanpost.net/2025/01/enforced-disappearances-in-balochistan-in-december-2024-tbp-report/" target="_blank">Baloch citizens</a> as anything other than a security problem to be managed.
In <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/ranisingh/2016/07/12/kashmir-in-the-worlds-most-militarized-zone-violence-after-years-of-comparative-calm/" target="_blank">Kashmir</a>, the Indian government claims to have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/08/world/asia/kashmir-village-defense-committees.html" target="_blank">“normalised” the valley</a> after revoking its autonomy in 2019. It <a href="https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-between-india-and-pakistan" target="_blank">looks a lot like occupation</a>. Soldiers outnumber local leaders, dissent is criminalised, internet shutdowns suffocate public life. Tourism campaigns and investment summits cannot erase a generation raised under curfew and surveillance.
<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-66260730" target="_blank">Manipur’s descent into ethnic bloodshed</a> in 2023 exposed another fault line Delhi prefers to ignore. Long-simmering tensions between the Meitei and Kuki communities erupted into violence that shattered any illusions of northeastern integration. The central government’s delayed, politicised response made clear what many Manipuris had always suspected: they are citizens of India only when convenient.
Even the <a href="https://msf.org.au/rohingya-worlds-largest-stateless-population" target="_blank">Rohingya, stateless and exiled from Myanmar</a>, find themselves entangled in South Asia’s ethnonationalist calculus. Fleeing genocide, they are criminalised anew in Bangladesh and India – trapped between the countries that reject them and the memories that refuse to let them go.
South Asia’s states have excelled at suppressing rebellion. But failed at extinguishing the reasons rebellions rise in the first place. And the wars South Asia tries to forget at home have found new life abroad.
Across <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-17/modis-indian-government-accused-of-spying-silencing-critics/103974414" target="_blank">Canada, Australia, Britain, and the United States</a>, diasporic communities have become memory-keepers and, increasingly, <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/khalistan-supporters-hold-protest-outside-indian-consulate-in-vancouver-123092600087_1.html" target="_blank">the agitators</a> for the struggles their home states would rather erase.
Khalistan flags fly outside Indian consulates in Vancouver and <a href="https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/punjab/perturbed-over-waving-of-khalistani-flags-at-an-event-in-melbourne-india-warns-australia-of-khalistan-separatists-and-their-links-with-terror-groups-458320/" target="_blank">Melbourne</a>. Tamil activists march through London, demanding accountability for the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/19/grim-reminder-sri-lankas-tamils-mark-15-years-since-end-of-civil-war" target="_blank">massacres in Mullivaikkal</a>. Kashmiri protests in Washington and New York refuse to let India’s crackdown slip into diplomatic amnesia.
For host countries, these movements pose uncomfortable questions. Freedom of expression collides with fears of extremism. Clashes erupt between communities carrying wounds that their new homelands.
Meanwhile, South Asian states pursue their adversaries across borders. India faces allegations of <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/canada-says-india-home-minister-ordered-campaign-against-sikh-activist-rcna177972" target="_blank">targeting Sikh activists for assassination in Canada</a> and the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/10/27/g-s1-29561/sikh-separatist-assassination-india" target="_blank">United States</a>. Pakistan continues to court Kashmiri separatists abroad while crushing Baloch dissent at home. <a href="https://apnews.com/article/sri-lanka-tamils-civil-war-dead-5b372b0bba567837c5a4d94250040e7d" target="_blank">Sri Lanka</a> lobbies furiously to brand Tamil diaspora organisations as fronts for terrorism, even as it stonewalls investigations into its own wartime atrocities.
The old insurgencies have not been defeated. They have been globalised. South Asia’s governments have long mistaken silence for stability.
In Punjab, India broke the back of the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/06/india/india-canada-sikh-khalistan-analysis-intl-hnk/index.html" target="_blank">Khalistan insurgency</a> through brute force. The fields grew green again, the trains ran on time. But the wounds were never closed, the <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/why-is-indias-khalistan-separatist-movement-on-the-rise/a-65081729" target="_blank">movement’s heart beats</a> not in Amritsar but in Brampton and Surrey.
In Sri Lanka, the <a href="https://www.academia.edu/4738983/The_Man_Who_Destroyed_Eelam" target="_blank">military crushed the Tamil Tigers</a> with <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2011/01/17/death-of-the-tiger" target="_blank">overwhelming brutality in 2009</a>. <a href="https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3264148/we-want-our-children-back-sri-lankan-families-still-demanding-justice-their-missing-loved-ones" target="_blank">Tamil families still search for their missing</a>, still mourn their dead – and still organise across the diaspora for justice that remains undelivered.
In Kashmir, Delhi boasts of new <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/2/4/kashmir-is-bleeding-its-economy" target="_blank">highways and investment corridors</a>, showcasing the region as a trophy of unity. But when the visitors leave and the cameras are packed away, <a href="https://harvardlawreview.org/print/vol-134/from-domicile-to-dominion-indias-settler-colonial-agenda-in-kashmir/" target="_blank">the checkpoints, the raids, and the quiet despair remain.</a>
Victory parades fade. Grievance endures. Suppressing insurgency may end battles. It does not end the ideas that fueled them. In a region where <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/23/world/asia/kashmir-attack-india-pakistan.html" target="_blank">history is rarely past</a>, and memory is rarely voluntary, states that rule through repression are only ever buying time. And often, not very much.
South Asia’s unfinished wars are not accidents. They are the inevitable consequences of states that confuse conquest with consent, and erasure with reconciliation. They cannot legislate memory out of existence.
Every <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c15qyyzz89lo" target="_blank">disappeared son in Balochistan</a>, every <a href="https://medium.com/the-wvoice/the-half-widows-in-kashmir-fef80c6b88e9" target="_blank">half-widow in Kashmir</a>, every <a href="https://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/what-we-do/focus/rohingya-refugee-crisis" target="_blank">refugee child born stateless in a Rohingya camp</a> carries forward the memory of betrayal – a memory that outlives soldiers, politicians, and peace accords alike.
The region’s future will not be decided by GDP figures or infrastructure projects alone. It will be decided by whether its governments can summon the political courage to face the truths they have long suppressed – or whether they will continue down a path <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-is-using-the-g20-summit-to-further-its-settler-colonial-ambitions-in-kashmir-205166" target="_blank">where forgetting is demanded</a>, and rebellion becomes inevitable.
Shyam Tekwani is a professor at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Hawaii. This <a href="https://dkiapcss.edu/nexus_articles/ghosts-at-the-border-south-asias-unfinished-wars/" target="_blank">article</a> was originally published on <a href="https://dkiapcss.edu/security-nexus/" target="_blank">DKI APCSS Security Nexus.</a> The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of DKI APCSS, the Department of Defense, or the US Government. The appearance of external hyperlinks does not constitute endorsement by the United States Department of Defense (DoD) of the linked websites, or the information, products, or services contained therein. DoD does not exercise any editorial, security, or other control over the information you may find at these sites.

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