<figure><img width="1365" height="2048" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111152/636cd8729c7e80680e092e42jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Chinese Ambassador Hou Yanqi posted pictures of herself on social media on 31 December 2019 to promote Visit Nepal Year 2020. Photo: AMBASSADOR HOU YANQI/TWITTER</figcaption></figure>When Nepal launched its Visit Nepal 2020 campaign to double its visitor arrivals to 2 million last year, much of the hope was pinned on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/chinese-tourist-influx-to-nepal-in-2020/">increasing the volume of tourists from China</a> and India.  Chinese Ambassador Hou Yanqi <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/chinese-tourist-influx-to-nepal-in-2020/">posted pictures of herself</a> on social media on New Year’s eve 31 December 2019 to promote Nepal among outbound tourists from China. Nepal Tourism Board (NTB) recruited famous actress Xu Qing to be its Goodwill Ambassador to promote Visit Nepal Year in China.Nearly 200,000 <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/number-of-Chinese-tourists-growing-in-nepal,1917">Chinese tourists</a> visited Nepal in 2019 after free visas were announced, and NTB was hoping to at least double that figure in 2020. Tourists from China had already started streaming in over the Chinese new year holiday last year when the pandemic struck.Almost exactly one year ago on 23 March, Nepal went into lockdown and the tourists had to be quickly <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/10000-tourists-stuck-in-nepal-being-evacuated/">evacuated on repatriation flights</a>. The numbers plummeted to zero between March to September of 2020.Arrivals have only started picking up. Of the 18,000 tourist visas issued at Kathmandu airport in January-February this year, the Department of Immigration says only 2,585 were for Chinese nationals. <figure><img width="1226" height="773" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111152/636cd8769c7e80680e092e43jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>This was less than 5% of the arrivals for the same two months in 2019, and many of them were traders and workers on Chinese projects and not strictly ‘tourists’.  In the short term, the hope for Nepal’s tourism industry <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-should-now-allow-visa-on-arrival/">hinges on how effective vaccination passes become</a>. In an optimistic scenario, rapid vaccination campaigns in China and India, and their travel bubbles could allow some tourists to venture to Nepal on holiday. Nepal as a destination <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/china-social-media-erupts-on-everest-news/">got a lot of nationwide publicity in China</a> last year with the join announcement of the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-china-re-measure-height-of-mt-everest/">newly calculated height of Mt Everest.</a>On March 9, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-certificates-idUSKBN2B10LO">China became the first country to launch</a> a digital Covid-19 vaccination certificate for Chinese citizens planning cross-border travels. It shows details of inoculation and antibody tests through a QR code on a WeChat app. Although these are now in widespread use in the mainland for visits to restaurants, and domestic travel by train and plane, there is not yet an accepted international standard for vaccine passes. <img width="640" height="797" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111152/636cd8789c7e80680e092e44jpeg.jpg" alt="">Besides, Beijing has continued its ban on outbound tour groups, and this limits Nepal’s ability to attract tourists from China, with or without vaccine passports. Several southeast Asian countries like Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia that depend on Chinese tourism are trying to set up a travel bubble with China. The Thai authorities are trying to open up the country by July to Chinese tourists, and if that happens they expect 8 million tourists by the end of the year. <img width="640" height="507" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111152/636cd87b9c7e80680e092e45jpeg.jpg" alt="">Chinese officials have said that they will be talking to countries around the world about accepting the country’s vaccine passport, and it is expected that some of the 40 countries that have so far imported or used Chinese-made Sinopharm or Sinovac vaccines may be the first to do so.China has increased its gift of Sinopharm vaccines to Nepal from 500,000 to 800,000. Health Ministry Hridayesh Tripathi told Nagarik newspaper in Kathmandu on Sunday that the delay was due to the fact that Nepal needed to arrange a charter flight to bring the doses from Beijing to Kathmandu.     However, any substantial change in Chinese tourist arrivals will likely only occur in the fall of 2021, if it happens at all. According to <a href="https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202103/1217110.shtml">Chinese media</a>, only 40% of eligible Chinese citizens will be vaccinated by the end of June, with this number creeping up to 64% by the end of the year.This means it is unlikely for Chinese restrictions on outbound travel to lift until the late summer or early fall of this year. While the outlook for this year’s tourist season is bleak, there is hope that next year will provide some relief. Once tourists can provide information on their inoculation status, restrictions on arrivals and quarantines can be lifted, facilitating greater numbers of tourist arrivals into countries like Nepal.With this in mind, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-tourism-may-take-5-years-to-recover/">it is highly unlikely that Nepal will see a return to numbers</a> like the estimated <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-tourism-may-take-5-years-to-recover/">1.2 million tourists</a> that visited the country in 2019 this year or next. This reflects a global trend.Some experts project that global long-haul travel will not properly resume until 2023 or 2024, which may be too long for many industries to survive. While the Nepali government had boldly targeted the arrival of 2 million tourists to Nepal in 2020, it could be several more years before this can be attained. <figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111152/636cd87e9c7e80680e092e46jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The start of the spring trekking season is usually a goldmine for Nepal’s tourist industry. In a normal year, Nepal earns up to $700 million from the tourist industry which provides direct employment to 1 million people.With the Covid-19 pandemic halting travel worldwide, Nepal’s once-resilient tourism industry faces an anxious wait for the return of some semblance of normalcy. Yet, even with growing rates of vaccinations worldwide, Nepal’s full-reopening to foreign tourists hinges on a complex web of factors.One concerns arrival restrictions. While the Nepali government <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/call-to-ease-entry-of-tourists-to-nepal/">eased restrictions</a> on foreign visits last December, various visitor requirements still deter many. Foreigners are allowed to fly to Nepal, but require a visa from an embassy abroad before being allowed in.Similarly, visitors are required to show proof of a reservation at a designated hotel for a one-week quarantine, which may be 10 days if travelers are arriving from countries with new virus strains. Yet, even with Nepal’s Covid-19 cases declining to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/why-nepals-covid-19-figures-are-deceptive/">low levels</a>, these regulations help provide an added layer of security to protect the country from infected visitors.Another involves vaccination rates in Nepal and abroad. As one of the first countries in the region to initiate a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-braces-for-new-wave-with-vaccine-drive/">rapid vaccination</a> program, Nepal hopes to expand on its inoculation drive to include the bulk of its population, not just frontline workers and medical staff.

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When will Chinese tourists return to Nepal?

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636cccff9c7e80680e08bc51jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640"/><figcaption>Nepal took delivery of one million doses of Covishield vaccine ordered from the Serum Institute of India, on Sunday. Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>Amidst the pandemic, Covid-19 vaccines have become a means for countries to exert influence over others. This has seen global powers flex their manufacturing prowess to reap geopolitical gains.As a landlocked country perched between China and India, the world’s two most populous countries and the largest global vaccine manufacturers, Nepal has <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/glimmers-of-hope-for-nepal-on-vaccine/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/glimmers-of-hope-for-nepal-on-vaccine/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFMX8c41M-XBr18zmXA9q450CrOjw">benefited from them. </a>Attempts by both Beijing and Delhi to distribute vaccines to Nepal signify the Himalayan state’s growing strategic value to both.India made the first move. In January, New Delhi <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-nepal-vaccine-idUSKBN29W0VJ" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-nepal-vaccine-idUSKBN29W0VJ&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHvA5Q2Hq3IlOSW_YRiVLKoHZsimg">pledged to inoculate</a> Nepal’s frontline workers before any other country, and promptly dispatched one million doses of the Covishield vaccine manufactured by its <a href="https://www.seruminstitute.com/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.seruminstitute.com/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFeCK6lMJ0mEMwnhe5ZlUkRhkq83g">Serum Institute of India.</a>“Nepal is getting the vaccines within a week after India rolled out its vaccination drive, which signifies the friendship between India and Nepal and the importance India attaches to Nepal,” India’s ambassador to Nepal Vinay Mohan Kwatra said, as the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/jabs-and-jab-nots/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/jabs-and-jab-nots/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFGat2xjZpiPoxjEjZIquz-r4fqSw">first shipment of the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine arrived at Kathmandu airport.</a><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636ccd029c7e80680e08bc52jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2839" height="2092"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Such rosy optics masked recent complications in relations between the two neighbours. India’s ties with Nepal have been strained in recent years by the Kalapani border <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/06/11/interpreting-the-india-nepal-border-dispute/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/06/11/interpreting-the-india-nepal-border-dispute/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHENUQx_suOCbeya69_G1M1t9-8ZQ">dispute</a>. In May 2020, India’s Defence Ministry opened a new 80 km-long road in the Himalaya to the Chinese border that passed through territory claimed by Nepal. In response, Kathmandu changed its own official map, and set up new border posts.There had been concerns in New Delhi that Nepal has become increasingly ‘Sinified’, especially since its six-month blockade of the border in 2015. China was the architect of the alliance of Nepal’s Maoist and UML parties, which swept the 2017 elections and united to form the Nepal Communist Party (NCP).Since 2018, Prime Minister K P Oli has signed off on numerous projects that are part of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative. The NCP and the Chinese Communist Party forged fraternal ties, with various workshops on ‘Xi Jinping Thought’ held in Kathmandu.After infighting among members of the Maoist coalition, Oli was forced to dissolve Parliament in December, presenting an opportunity for New Delhi to jostle for influence. While India will need to present more robust measures of support to Nepal than vaccines to cement its influence, India has a head start in the case of vaccine diplomacy.Evidently, Beijing has grown increasingly frustrated with the NCP leadership, and has voiced its displeasure by not opening its two border checkpoints, citing the pandemic. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/chinese-tourist-influx-to-nepal-in-2020/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/chinese-tourist-influx-to-nepal-in-2020/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGmlmUxbFQO-w3a9zFkseqhfdPvxg">China’s Ambassador in Nepal Hou Yanqi</a> failed after repeated attempts to get the NCP leadership to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/is-china-now-micro-managing-nepal-politics/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/is-china-now-micro-managing-nepal-politics/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFWPcQGwn4P8cJlsujB-h5uxm4tew">patch up their differences</a>, Beijing sent its <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/is-china-now-micro-managing-nepal-politics/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/is-china-now-micro-managing-nepal-politics/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFWPcQGwn4P8cJlsujB-h5uxm4tew">Army Chief Wei Wengfe</a> to Kathmandu in November just after India’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/indias-multi-pronged-line-to-right-nepal-ties/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/indias-multi-pronged-line-to-right-nepal-ties/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHLEaB38PgM99Dyx6gKRNEM6v1gSg">Chief of Army Staff M M Navarane</a> himself paid a visit to Nepal.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636ccd069c7e80680e08bc53jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1080"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Not to be outdone in vaccine geopolitics, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called Foreign Minister Pradeep Gyawali on 5 February, and <a href="https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/t1852133.shtml" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/t1852133.shtml&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGy-kYDmw6qDY0hOU4alm8LtlGWKw">pledged </a>500,000 doses of its Sinopharm vaccine. After a long delay, the Chinese vaccine finally got approval from Nepal’s Department of Drug Administration last week for emergency use.The delay in the approval process for the Sinopharm vaccine, which has not been approved by the WHO yet, appears to have miffed Beijing. The Indian media played up supposed pressure by the Chinese Embassy in Kathmandu to fast-track the approval process.Beyond the Himalaya, vaccine geopolitics is playing out elsewhere in South Asia. Attempts by China to distribute vaccines to Bangladesh were thwarted after the government there refused to contribute to the development costs of the Sinopharm vaccine.After India donated two million doses of Covishield to Bangladesh, Dhaka struck a deal to <a href="https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/bangladesh-to-buy-indian-covid-19-vaccines-after-china-asks-to-share-vaccine-trials-cost-report/article33648633.ece" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/bangladesh-to-buy-indian-covid-19-vaccines-after-china-asks-to-share-vaccine-trials-cost-report/article33648633.ece&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG9b3i3OdybiKzX5Vufug5v02OGGw">purchase 30 million</a> doses of the vaccine for the country, snubbing Beijing. Chinese state media accused <a href="https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202101/1214041.shtml" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202101/1214041.shtml&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEoix9h2tMalRVwO7rZWBx2DMco2w">Delhi of meddling</a> with its  attempt to distribute vaccines in Bangladesh.China’s closest ally in the region, Pakistan, became the first country to receive donated shipments of China’s Sinopharm vaccine, with Beijing <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2021/02/china-gifts-pakistan-1-2-million-covid-19-vaccine-doses/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://thediplomat.com/2021/02/china-gifts-pakistan-1-2-million-covid-19-vaccine-doses/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGfbpJhrMSFm9ugwe0zMnssbFpZbw">pledging to send over</a> 1.2 million doses to Islamabad.Along with Nepal and Bangladesh, New Delhi also gifted Covishield to Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Seychelles, Mauritius and Burma as part of its ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy.Nepal also took delivery of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-braces-for-new-wave-with-vaccine-drive/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-braces-for-new-wave-with-vaccine-drive/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFOkIKOTq_lBwSlRkb9icdh4NEBhA">1 million more Covishield vaccines</a> that it ordered from the Serum Institute of India on Sunday, and another 2.2 million doses purchased by Britain under the <a href="https://www.who.int/initiatives/act-accelerator/covax" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.who.int/initiatives/act-accelerator/covax&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFCmy6JvaMqdagVd7fzazTMUZePEA">WHO’s GAVI-COVAX initiative</a> are arriving next week.China has made strategic gains in the region in recent years to India’s detriment. Through its Belt and Road Initiative, China has poured investment into Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Nepal and the Maldives. Funded by Chinese money, massive ports, highways and other infrastructure projects have been built. With its muddled bureaucracy and weaker spending power, Delhi had not been able to keep up with Beijing’s soft power expansion.Now, India is using vaccines as the vanguard of its response. The Serum Institute has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/11/world/asia/vaccine-diplomacy-india-china.html" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/11/world/asia/vaccine-diplomacy-india-china.html&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE0Xe33J3K0BozaLao6fO5i6bcnag">been producing</a> vaccine supplies at a much faster rate than the Indian government’s inoculation program can distribute them, making it easy for Delhi to send them abroad without suffering political backlash at home.This has given India a new edge for its soft power ambitions in the South Asian and Indian Ocean regions. Given that most of the developing world will not be vaccinated <a href="https://www.eiu.com/n/85-poor-countries-will-not-have-access-to-coronavirus-vaccines/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.eiu.com/n/85-poor-countries-will-not-have-access-to-coronavirus-vaccines/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFRvEEUYnAtYJl-4suTFC2JfUJFhQ">until 2023</a>, demand for vaccines will only rise. While China’s manufacturing prowess means that it is likely to keep up with demand, regional resistance to its largely un-trialed vaccines will complicate efforts to gain approval by government agencies.What happens in Nepal over the coming months will be a microcosm of regional vaccine geopolitics. The erosion of Chinese influence with its inability to keep the NCP together, gives an opening for New Delhi to reassert itself in Kathmandu.While China may have promised Nepal its continued support to help <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-will-nepals-covid-vaccine-turn-come/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-will-nepals-covid-vaccine-turn-come/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHVHDy7dKQmiyzWk-iPKWg82NOhBw">overcome the pandemic</a>, its assistance may not be needed or welcomed if India already fulfils this role.

South Asia’s vaccine geopolitics

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011110/636ccc3c9c7e80680e08bc10jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1550"/><figcaption>Photo: MONIKA DEUPALA</figcaption></figure>Even as Nepal completes the first phase of its Covid vaccine drive to inoculate <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-health-workers-battle-covid-19-but-also-stigma/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">frontline health workers</a> and other high-risk groups, new hyper-spreading variants of the coronavirus as well as vaccine denial have raised concerns about the efficacy of the campaign.Public health experts, however, say the government must continue its vaccination to reach as many vulnerable people as possible with a better communication strategy and more aggressive promotion.Nepal is one of the first countries in the region to start a mass Covid-19 vaccination drive. But the first phase <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/why-is-there-vaccine-hesitancy-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">saw a moderate turnout</a> with only half of the doctors, nurses, FCHVs, security personnel and cleaners prioritised by the government inoculating themselves because of the safety concerns and inaccessibility.This forced the Health Ministry to expand the first phase to also include civil servants, diplomats, bankers and journalists so that it could used up the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/jabs-and-jab-nots/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">1 million doses of Covishield vaccines donated by India</a> last month.With additional 2.25 million Covishield doses under the WHO’s COVAX initiative arriving in Nepal by early March and another 2 million that the government is in talks to purchase from the Serum Institute of India, officials are gearing up for the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/next-up-for-vaccines-elderly-nepalis/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">second phase of the vaccination</a> for people above 55 years and those with co-morbidities starting from 7 March.This will be followed by the age group 40-54 and then those below 40 years of age.“The campaign will now be community-based, unlike the first phase that was facility-based, we will take the vaccine to the people and ensure higher coverage,” assured Shyam Raj Uprety, head of government’s Covid Vaccine Strategy. “And as per the WHO recommendation, our advisory groups will soon finalise their decision to provide the second dose between 8-12 weeks.”Public health experts say that the emergence of new variants should not dissuade the government from discontinuing or scaling back its vaccine drive.“An RNA virus will have variants, it is a given, we have to live with them. In fact, we might have our own variant in South Asia, but we should keep on vaccinating and saving lives,” says Sameer Dixit of the Centre for Molecular Dynamics Nepal.Of the multiple variants circulating globally, the one first identified in the UK called B.1.1.7 is more widespread, and some have been detected in Nepal in travellers arriving from Britain. The good news is that AstraZeneca Covishield vaccine has been found to be effective against the strain.However, a trial involving 2,000 people in South Africa claimed that Oxford jabs offered only <a href="https://thewire.in/health/south-africa-asks-serum-institute-to-take-back-1-million-covid-19-vaccine-doses" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">minimal protection against mild and moderate cases</a> (of their variant B.1.351). Experts caution that it may be too soon to declare the vaccine ineffective because the study was conducted in a small population of young people.In Brazil, a variant called P.1 has been found to contain contains a set of additional mutations that may affect its ability to be recognised by antibodies, adding to the challenge.“What’s important in this debate is that even if one were to contract Covid, the vaccine will prevent people from getting severely ill and dying,” says Buddha Basnyat of the Patan Academy of Health Sciences. “Trials and emergency use so far has strongly addressed safety concerns regarding Covishield, so we can’t let news of variants put a damper on the vaccination campaign.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011110/636ccc3f9c7e80680e08bc11jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1125"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-begins-covid-19-vaccination-drive/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">nationwide vaccination campaign</a> is taking place at a time when Nepal and the rest of the South Asia are reporting much fewer cases and fatalities, much of which has been credited to limited contact tracing and herd immunity in major cities after large chunks of the population developed resistance against SARS-CoV-2 after contracting it.But the lack of surveillance, seroprevalence studies and antibody tests means that researchers have not been able to confirm localised immunity.“The government is unwilling to conduct a study despite interest from aid agencies. Results from these studies would have helped us better prepare vaccination strategy at a time when we face great resource constraint,” says Dixit.Nepal also needs to continue with <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-will-nepals-covid-vaccine-turn-come/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">vaccine diplomacy</a> and look into other shots, in particular, Chinese Sinovac and Bharat Biotech’s Covaxin. Both the vaccines use the whole inactivated (dead) virus, because of which they are unable to infect people or cause pathological effects but deploy the immune system to mount a defensive reaction against the virus.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/05/opinion/covid-vaccines-china-russia.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Sinovac made global headlines</a> when it was found to be only 50.4% effective in a trial in Brazil whereas it performed better in Turkey (91% efficacy). <a href="https://www.newindianexpress.com/cities/thiruvananthapuram/2021/feb/16/the-covaxin-conundrum-2264436.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Covaxin</a> is also controversial because of its emergency use among the frontline health workers in India despite not completing its phase three trials.It will do well for Nepal to keep track of their trials with the government aiming to vaccinate 72% of its eligible population above 18 years. People aged 55 and above make up 11% of Nepal’s population whereas the 40-54 age group account for 13%. People aged 18-39 made up nearly half of Nepal’s 28.8 million population in the 2011 census.In the meantime, the government needs to enforce the equitable distribution of the vaccine to the remotest parts of the country with the most at-risk groups high in priority. Public health experts say that with cases rising again in India, Nepal could also see a spike as people become complacent and mingle more.Says Sher Bahadur Pun of the Infectious Disease Hospital in Teku: “We have been given this reprieve with fewer cases and fatalities, we need to utilise this time to vaccinate the elderly so that the most vulnerable in our communities are protected if and when the next wave hits us.”

Sonia Awale

Nepal braces for new wave with vaccine drive

In 2003, the death by police firing of a student protesting a rise in fuel prices pushed Nepal’s student activists to join the प्रतिगमन विरोधी आन्दोलन (Movement Against Regression), which political parties had begun after king Gyanendra’s sacking an elected government a year before. The students’ participation elevated the movement and prompted more Nepalis to join in, leading to the People’s Movement that first sidelined the monarchy and then abolished it in 2008.&nbsp; That took five years to happen. But 12 years later, this month, a youth-led protest forced the prime minister to resign within 30 hours.&nbsp; Police massacred GenZ activists, many of them students, outside Parliament on 8 September. This intensified public anger, leading to targeted attacks, looting, and burning of the homes of political leaders, private businesses, and public buildings.&nbsp; Amid the smouldering ruins of state institutions, young Nepalis chose a new prime minister to lead an interim government and deliver a fresh mandate. All of this happened in five days.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250910140912_019d62de4b62a366299a27d1276e931a7dadefcc674441e7fb3acd503970efaf.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250910140912_019d62de4b62a366299a27d1276e931a7dadefcc674441e7fb3acd503970efaf" data-rendition-name="original" width="8000" height="5760" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal in ashes"> <figcaption>Parliament building up in flames during the GenZ protest on 9 September. Photo: KAMAL PRASAI</figcaption> </figure>  Students have been central to Nepal’s democratic and political process since the mid 20th century. In her 2018 book Making New Nepal, researcher Amanda Thérèse Snellinger traces the history of student activism and politics against a background of &nbsp;Nepal’s socio-political history and party politics.&nbsp; Snellinger examines the interplay of ideology and identity, explores how student activists fit into a political landscape continually occupied by the traditional elite, and details how student leaders have established themselves through relationships with influential actors on local, national, regional, and transnational levels. The Rana regime’s repression caused students to be politically aware. In 1947, students held the first organised protest against the Rana autocracy demanding educational reforms. The breadth of student activism expanded during the Panchayat era after king Mahendra banned political parties, which drove mainstream politicians and parties underground. &nbsp;Student activists then became proxies for multiparty democracy because they were still able to organise.&nbsp; Student politics was institutionalised, and unions emerged as vanguard sister organisations of political parties. Student activism, more so than mainstream political parties, played key roles during &nbsp;both major movements in 1990 and the 2000s, as they mobilised the citizenry to join the democratic process.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250924130940_f94cf97fb7ed98b90b48736e1aa8a76466f50337dffc36ec78e9cd5e6927deea.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250924130940_f94cf97fb7ed98b90b48736e1aa8a76466f50337dffc36ec78e9cd5e6927deea" data-rendition-name="original" width="1952" height="2928" loading="lazy" alt="1990 people's movement Nepal"> <figcaption>The iconic image of the 1990 People's Movement agaist the autocratic Panchyat regime of the king. Photo: MIN RATNA BAJRACHARYA</figcaption> </figure>  Through extensive ethnographic research between 2003 and 2015, Snellinger investigates the political coming of age of student activists during the final years of the armed insurgency and their role in and beyond the movement that ultimately abolished the monarchy. Her research revolves around the political journeys of five student activists: Akash and Rishi from the Nepali Congress (NC) student wing Nepal Student Union (NSU), Salini from the UML’s All Nepal National Free Students’ Union (ANNFSU-Akhil), Gyanu from ANNISU-Revolutionary of the Maoists, and Lagan, who began his political journey from Nepal Majdoor Kisan Party’s student wing Nepal Krantikari Bidyarthi Sangathan. The ‘movement against regression’ in 2003 served as the entry point &nbsp;for activists into national party politics. Indeed, it was their &nbsp;participation in the movement that elevated the profile of the main subjects of Snellinger’s research. In the years that followed, the paths of the five activists diverged. Some made it into mainstream politics, even becoming lawmakers. In doing so, they have had to trade idealism for pragmatism, and their attempts realise their previous vision for Nepal’s democracy have been overshadowed by their political opportunism and position. And even decades after they began their journey as student activists, the generation that the book focuses on are still considered &nbsp;‘youth’ leaders. Snellinger quotes a former student leader who joined mainstream politics as saying: “I am still a youth because &nbsp;my aspirations remain unfulfilled.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250924130944_7cca095d79fb5ce45cf92c61b77d72c31c5e0931aa744c73e264b6f91efdd29b.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20250924130944_7cca095d79fb5ce45cf92c61b77d72c31c5e0931aa744c73e264b6f91efdd29b" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1004" loading="lazy" alt="2006 People's Movement of Nepal"> <figcaption>A student protester wearing a paper crown and ridiculing Gyanendra with an impersonation, a day after king stepped down and left his palace. Photo: AJAY JOSHI / A PEOPLE WAR</figcaption> </figure>  Meanwhile, the refusal of Nepal’s octogenarian leaders to retire (even after The upheaval this month) has created a surplus of younger adults waiting in the wings, making the word ‘youth’ relative in Nepal’s political trajectory. Other subjects of Snellinger's research have retreated from student and mainstream activism, either in disappointment over their mother party’s retreat from some of their more radical positions, or to &nbsp;continue their work at the community level through education and journalism. One of them has leveraged her political connections to further women-led initiatives after unsuccessful election bids. Nearing the end of her research in 2015, Snellinger observes the disappointment of Madhesi communities whose movement to demand more inclusive provisions of the draft Constitution had gone in vain, even after 45 lives were lost.&nbsp; As the Constitution was promulgated in 2015, TVs were switched off in the Tarai, and there were sighs of resignation. In Kathmandu, Snelllinger noted that the student leaders that entered mainstream politics protesting for inclusive democracy had little empathy for the struggles and similar demands of groups in the Madhes. Despite the students’ role in ending the monarchy, Nepal’s political status quo has remained. The institutions and people that replaced the &nbsp;monarchy have allowed one set of Kathmandu elites to be replaced with another.&nbsp; The socio-political benefits promised during the movement two &nbsp;decades ago have remained tightly controlled by leaders who refuse to give up their hold on power. The political system was overhauled, but without concrete reform. It was only a matter of time before public frustration would boil over. Indeed, Snellinger concludes her book by predicting the inevitability of future movements in Nepal.&nbsp; She writes: ‘Leaders emerge through the andolan … a new generation will emerge shaped by Nepal’s accumulated socio-political heritage, which they will mediate to shape a liveable present and future for themselves in their country, perhaps by continuing the movement.’&nbsp; And that is exactly what happened on 8-9 September. Students marched in the streets demanding an end to corruption and impunity, but this time not as proxies of political parties.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250908120948_8a9acceede487651487c2f15b65e40f900ee6cd390bbf98394eade6b95d05b28.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20250908120948_8a9acceede487651487c2f15b65e40f900ee6cd390bbf98394eade6b95d05b28" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Gen Z protest"> <figcaption>A student during the GenZ protest against acorruption on 8 September. Photo: SUDIKSHA TULADHAR</figcaption> </figure>  Their desire for socio-political reform was apolitical at a time in Nepal’s history when the nation’s student organisations have weakened and lost credibility, mirroring the erosion of trust in their parent parties. Along with party-based student unions, the Free Student Union (FSU)— the umbrella body all student unions—has lost its reputation due to corruption and embezzlement. That is not to say there are no similarities in movements past and present. Whether political or apolitical, protests have been overshadowed by a lack of unity within the groups that spearhead movements. They have led to destruction of public and private institutions.&nbsp; Leaders of youth and student movements have also had to bear the brunt of the frustration of the people they represent when there is no delivery on their demands. The academics of students have suffered because of frequent lockouts of university and college administration. Youth andolan, whether political or apolitical, has been a rite of passage into Nepali democratic politics — dissensus is an integral part of political regeneration. It remains to be see how the fall &nbsp;from grace of political parties after the GenZ movement will affect their affiliated student unions. As elections approach, student unions and youth collectives will find their own footing in Nepal’s &nbsp;newly emerging socio-political landscape. The youth who took to the streets are asking for a complete overhaul for political parties. Establishmentarian leaders still have not seen the writing on the wall.&nbsp; NextGen leaders in their parties have been waiting for years for their turn &nbsp;to break through the glass ceiling. These established political actors will not go down without a fight in the run-up to March elections.&nbsp; Amanda Thérèse Snellinger perhaps needs a post-script or even a sequel to her book to see how a new generation of leaders, forged by their student activism, will compete in Nepal's new political arena.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250923190928_98d53dd49d56c92950bc34642eaee51dea458fd64312d945a358ad70e5e994bb.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250923190928_98d53dd49d56c92950bc34642eaee51dea458fd64312d945a358ad70e5e994bb" data-rendition-name="original" width="1136" height="702" loading="lazy" alt="Making new Nepal book details NT"> </figure>

Nepal’s historic youth dissensus

What does a journalist do when young protesters are shot in front of her? Does she do her job and stay neutral? Can you stay neutral?&nbsp; As protests engulfed Kathmandu, Nepal's journalists found themselves reporting a story that was personal. While doing their job, some of them were even targeted by mobs.&nbsp; Dart Asia Pacific Fellow <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/arunkarki/" target="_blank">Arun Karki</a> visited their newsrooms and spoke with his colleagues on their experience of reporting the GenZ protests that erupted on 8 September. These are the first-hand accounts of journalists who witnessed the turmoil in the city they call home. Sunita Karki was at a workshop in a hotel on 8 September. She saw the first waves of protests through hotel windows. Curfew alerts flooded her phone, a vehicle belonging to a human rights group sat burning across the road, young boys were taking their wounded friends on motorbikes to the Everest Hospital, and police were beating a teenager with hands raised up.&nbsp; “I cried a lot,” she said, but the tears were not out of fear -- they were because she felt guilt. “I couldn’t write the news. We were witnessing these scenes from a five-star hotel.” By evening, the death toll had reached 19. On 9 September at about 3:35 p.m. &nbsp;her outlet, the Annapurna Post's office in Tinkune, Kathmandu, was set on fire. Staff had to leave the building as parts of the newsroom burnt down.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250924040948_e1cc49c9e4fcc4bd4cd3c0163c782fc4e9956bf633cff7b53a63cf8e2dd74cff.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250924040948_e1cc49c9e4fcc4bd4cd3c0163c782fc4e9956bf633cff7b53a63cf8e2dd74cff" data-rendition-name="original" width="1333" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Dart Centre Asia Pacific"> </figure>  When she knew her office was burning, she anxiously told her husband that she would resign from the job: "If we have to hide our identification cards in every protest, what kind of journalist am I?" she asked herself. She filed a story the next day, but her emotions kept bouncing between that of a journalist’s duty and shock. She said that in moments like this, it’s hard to feel truly neutral. After watching the police beat people, she felt a strong urge to step in, not just stand back and report. The first real calm came later, when people came to the street and lit small candles together. “This was a sort of victory procession. I felt some relief after brutal days,” she said. <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/angaddhakal/" target="_blank">Angad Dhakal</a> a photojournalist who works at Kantipur National Daily, was standing outside his office building when protesters stormed in and set parts of it on fire. He had already been informed that protesters were planning to torch his office building and &nbsp;rushed to his office hoping to save his hard drives containing ten years of photography work. He failed. He raised his camera and "forcefully" pressed the shutter - more to document the scene than out of "professional enthusiasm or duty".&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250924040948_ebafaacb85c4ea045c41f2c63f1eff06fee9a4ddb5fbf419724e1a5d533781fa.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20250924040948_ebafaacb85c4ea045c41f2c63f1eff06fee9a4ddb5fbf419724e1a5d533781fa" data-rendition-name="original" width="1333" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="It is hard to feel neutral NT"> <figcaption>Photo: GAURAV POKHAREL</figcaption> </figure>  “My office was burning. What should I photograph?” he recalled. A few moments later, a protester noticed the “PHOTO” label on his yellow Press jacket. Dhakal deflected it by saying he was an early career freelancer and YouTuber. So that protesters wouldn't find out, he went to one corner and took his jacket off. When it comes to covering street protests, &nbsp;Angad usually stands near the police because it feels safer. But on 8 September, fire and gunshots made even that area unsafe. A rubber bullet hit his friend Dipendra Dhungana that badly injured him.&nbsp; He thought, “Where do we go now? If we stay here, we’ll be hit.” After witnessing two days of protests, violence, and killings, and seeing his own office burning, he couldn't sleep for days. The same afternoon that government buildings burned and Kantipur was attacked, a message in a protest Discord forum talked openly of 'attacking Kantipur'.&nbsp; Rumours spread to other outlets. Outside OnlineKhabar's office, where <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/article/edit/7376157229248528384/?author=urn%3Ali%3Afsd_company%3A79132377#" target="_blank">Gaurav Pokharel</a> works, the newsroom manager saw “very suspicious people were walking around”. They lowered blinds, avoided windows, locked the front gate and dispersed staff to other places across the city. The outlet was threatened and effectively locked down, but not torched. Pokharel hid his press ID. “ I never showed the ID card. Sometimes I had to enter the crowd shouting slogans, just to blend in among the protesters,” he said. He watched people fall under gunfire, he helped pull one surrounded journalist out of a hostile crowd.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250924040948_3b335eee57280373cb51f460534ca4476df23f89c787ba9e4a66d116a537b1a3.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20250924040948_3b335eee57280373cb51f460534ca4476df23f89c787ba9e4a66d116a537b1a3" data-rendition-name="original" width="1333" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="It is hard to feel neutral NT"> <figcaption>Photo: GAURAV POKHAREL</figcaption> </figure>  As a freelancer, Gaurav also contributed articles for international outlets. Later, while transcribing an interview of a young protest organiser, he wrote to his editor at an international outlet : “This was very hard to write. I cried many times while doing it.” He had been working at a stretch for days battling bouts of exhaustion and low blood pressure.&nbsp; Protesters vandalised and set fire within the Singha Darbar complex housing Nepal Television and Radio Nepal. They tried to disrupt public broadcasting.&nbsp; Surendra Paudyal began the day with his press ID hanging on his neck, thinking it would let him move freely. But when he reached Singha Darbar around 3:30PM, the situation felt dangerous.&nbsp; He put the ID in his pocket. When asked what mattered most, he answered without pause: life comes first. In that moment, he felt real fear and a strong duty to protect his team.&nbsp; His focus narrowed to basic things: stay calm, find exits, get everyone out safely. Later, they were able to keep the 8 pm news on air through a regional link. He felt mixed emotions and a sense of relief that the broadcast continued, but also sadness and anger that their own studio had come under attack. Reprinted with permission from the Dart Centre Asia Pacific, a regional hub that provides trauma-informed support and advice to journalists.

"It is hard to feel neutral"

Harry Jackson was on an epic adventure ‘from Thailand to the UK on 2 wheels’ when he ran into the ultimate sidequest. Having just visited Zangla in Ladakh, Jackson had only landed in Kathmandu when he found himself in the middle of GenZ protests earlier this month. ‘<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Slq6zWu9o9w">Arriving in Nepal - Chaos, Protest &amp; Curfews</a>’ is the title of his first video (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/@wehatethecold/videos">wehatethecold on YouTube</a>) about the protest. He shoots police as they shoot at protesters outside Parliament. Jackson is riding a Honda CT125, a retro lightweight motorbike with off-road capabilities. Strapped to the bike is his sparse luggage, flute, and a faded Union Jack. People are rioting on the streets and there is a heavy armed police presence as he makes his way to his hostel in Thamel. His vlog the day after on 9 September has 29 million views. In ‘<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IyxSqeFrlp0">The side of Nepal the media won’t show you</a>’, Jackson rides his bike straight at the crowd just past the Parliament building into Old Baneswar.&nbsp; He parks it and walks among the protestors, documenting it all: from the police firing capsules of tear gas into the crowd to the burning Parliament building as well as the jubilant, victorious crowd in the premises as they destroy police vehicles and dance. “I’m shocked at the scenes I’ve witnessed here today. I have truly witnessed history on a stupid trip from Thailand to England on a f***ing moped!” exclaims Jackson as he leaves the scene for the day, heading back to his hostel to edit the footage. The hostel is in direct contrast to the raucous scenes of the protest, as tourists and Nepalis sit and lounge at tables. ‘KUIRE VLOGGER’ Nepalis quickly called him the ‘kuire vlogger’, and attribute his skin colour to his popularity. Objectively, the videos are well made. Jackson goes full gonzo journalist, putting himself right in the heart of the action, talking directly to the people, all while narrating the events as they unfold. Despite being cut together in an entertaining way, the footage retains a raw, unpolished quality that outdoes what most professional journalists with a heavy duty camera crew could do. At a time when legacy media has been seen to be pushing biased narratives, Jackson wants to see for himself what happened, and make up his own mind.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250925120956_f7141e06c72655502fc4b2e56120d084b0f5ae111078d66df4fd0415adf8d376.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20250925120956_f7141e06c72655502fc4b2e56120d084b0f5ae111078d66df4fd0415adf8d376" data-rendition-name="original" width="2880" height="1604" loading="lazy" alt="WehateTheCold"> </figure>  This kind of video journalism takes a lot of skill and a certain personality. Many people, almost everybody, had their phones out at the protests, but only a handful were like Jackson. He interviewed people firsthand, edited the clips and uploaded them the same day. Jackson continued his vlogging over the next few days as the curfew was first put in place and then lifted. He explores the city as the Valley rebounds. By this time, Nepalis recognise him everywhere he goes. Jackson had achieved moderate fame as a 23-year old DJ in Birmingham, but what he has done in Nepal is something else. Almost everyone he talks to has already seen his vlog, and they are all eager to interact. He has been on multiple podcasts in Nepal too, and most videos online on the protests reference his vlogs. Before his Nepal blogs, Jackson had a modest 16k subcribers on YouTube, but after Nepal figure is now almost 700k, gaining over 100k each through 11-13 September. Most of them are Nepali viewers. “I’m just a regular dude who just did what he wanted to do,” says Jackson on a podcast. “I wanted to go on an adventure, learn about history, and learn languages. And I wanted to film it, document it, and have a wicked film for my life to show future generations.” &nbsp;

The accidental journalist

Although instability is endemic to South and Southeast Asia, it is becoming increasingly dangerous both for India’s neighbors and India itself. This was reflected most recently in the violent unrest in Nepal. But that crisis is hardly an isolated case. In Bangladesh, directly to India’s east, the same tensions that led to the overthrow of the government in 2024 remain unresolved. And to the southeast, Thailand is reeling from the court-ordered removal of its prime minister and a series of recent border clashes with Cambodia. 
According to the Armed Conflict Location &amp; Event Data project, Myanmar’s civil war has claimed at least <a href="https://acleddata.com/report/war-sky-how-drone-warfare-shaping-conflict-myanmar" target="_blank">80,000 lives</a>, both civilians and combatants, since 2021, following the military coup that ended Aung San Suu Kyi’s democratic government. To India’s west, a perpetually volatile Pakistan wrestles with the zombies of its history: Islamist extremist groups and poor economic and governmental performance. 
To the south, Sri Lanka may have settled down following the ouster of its president three years ago, but its economy shows few signs of mounting a sustained recovery. And to the north, China’s quest for regional hegemony is another source of instability. 
For India, these crises are not distant concerns. Refugee flows from Bangladesh are causing social unease and disruptions in India’s eastern states; the never-ending threat of cross-border terror from Pakistan nearly incited a war in Kashmir this summer; and now, Nepal’s volatile politics have given China another opportunity for meddling. Since this arc of fragility is too large to ignore, the question for India’s leadership is how to absorb and minimize the shockwaves, and how to steady the region.
One can start with Nepal, which has struggled to live by the ambitious constitution that was forged to end a long Maoist rebellion two decades ago. Nepali state institutions remain fragile and contested, and hopes of stability have been repeatedly dashed by factionalism, corruption, and political leaders’ inability to consolidate a system that everyone can trust. The recent spasm of shockingly brutal violence is a symptom of these deeper fault lines. 
India cannot be indifferent to such instability. Our long, open border with Nepal makes us vulnerable to refugee flows and cross-border crime, and our deep cultural, ethnic, religious, and economic ties mean that the government in Kathmandu will always look over its shoulder at the government in New Delhi. Moreover, China’s increasing influence in Nepal’s domestic politics has, as a matter of necessity, made the country a major strategic concern for India. 
In Bangladesh, the interim government that has ruled since <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/columnist/sheikh-hasina">Sheikh Hasina</a>’s ouster is failing in its efforts to restore law and order or safeguard human rights. The economy, a bright spot for decades, is under pressure from domestic political jitters and US President Donald Trump’s punishing tariffs. The febrile political environment has left the country’s minorities feeling increasingly insecure. The stakes for India are high, because its own efforts to manage the border, migration, and counterterrorism depend on the regime in Dhaka maintaining order. 
At first glance, Thailand’s turmoil and the border clashes with Cambodia may seem less urgent. But India, under its Act East policy, has been pursuing deeper economic and strategic ties with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ ten member states and their 600 million-plus people. Any instability within that bloc will complicate this outreach. 
Moreover, Thailand has long served as a bridge between South and Southeast Asia. If its institutions falter, or if disputes with Cambodia escalate despite Malaysian Prime Minister <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/columnist/anwar-ibrahim">Anwar Ibrahim</a>’s best efforts to broker a resolution, India’s vision of a connected, secure Indo-Pacific corridor could become untenable. 
To describe Pakistan as chronically troubled may sound dismissive, but it is an unfortunate truth. The country’s civilian authorities have been consistently undermined, as when <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/columnist/imran-khan-1">Imran Khan</a>’s elected government was ousted in 2022 at the military’s behest. Extremist groups thrive when politics becomes a blood sport, and Pakistan’s fragile economy only exacerbates this dynamic. 
From India’s perspective, Pakistan’s troubles are more than a domestic issue, because they regularly threaten to spill across the Line of Control in Kashmir, fueling terrorism, destroying any prospect for regional peace, and even introducing the specter of a nuclear catastrophe. This continuous instability chains India to the sub-continental chessboard, even when it wants to look outward. The Pakistan-China axis further complicates the status quo, which is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future. 
All these stories point to a larger worrying trend: democracy in India’s neighborhood is in retreat. Constitutions are being rewritten, and courts politicized. Sensing weakness, too many army generals see themselves as free to intervene, including by jailing or exiling political leaders.
For India – the world’s largest democracy – responding to this trend demands a more assertive regional strategy. Of course, for most of South Asia, barring Pakistan, India is the first responder when crises hit. But during periods when India’s neighbors do not think they need its help, they tend to shrug off its security concerns. 
And as if India’s neighborhood were not dangerous enough, the wider world adds its own layers of uncertainty. Trump’s policy toward the region has been arbitrary in the extreme, leading smaller states to hedge their bets. In Japan and South Korea, debates are underway about the wisdom of acquiring nuclear weapons, now that China is flexing its muscles and the US security umbrella has been called into question. 
Although India has stood its ground in the face of the storm, the regional and Trump-induced volatility is making it harder to maintain the country’s treasured strategic autonomy. The task now is no longer to deepen ties with America, but to maintain the strategic, technological, and economic core of the partnership while building resistance against sudden shifts in US policy. 
India is not seeking dominance in South Asia. Its goal is to build an inclusive, rules-based, and connected region – and thus transform a history of recurring crises into a future of enduring stability. © <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/">Project Syndicate</a>
Nirupama Rao is a former foreign secretary of India and former Indian ambassador to China and the United States.