<figure><img width="1365" height="2048" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111152/636cd8729c7e80680e092e42jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Chinese Ambassador Hou Yanqi posted pictures of herself on social media on 31 December 2019 to promote Visit Nepal Year 2020. Photo: AMBASSADOR HOU YANQI/TWITTER</figcaption></figure>When Nepal launched its Visit Nepal 2020 campaign to double its visitor arrivals to 2 million last year, much of the hope was pinned on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/chinese-tourist-influx-to-nepal-in-2020/">increasing the volume of tourists from China</a> and India.  Chinese Ambassador Hou Yanqi <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/chinese-tourist-influx-to-nepal-in-2020/">posted pictures of herself</a> on social media on New Year’s eve 31 December 2019 to promote Nepal among outbound tourists from China. Nepal Tourism Board (NTB) recruited famous actress Xu Qing to be its Goodwill Ambassador to promote Visit Nepal Year in China.Nearly 200,000 <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/number-of-Chinese-tourists-growing-in-nepal,1917">Chinese tourists</a> visited Nepal in 2019 after free visas were announced, and NTB was hoping to at least double that figure in 2020. Tourists from China had already started streaming in over the Chinese new year holiday last year when the pandemic struck.Almost exactly one year ago on 23 March, Nepal went into lockdown and the tourists had to be quickly <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/10000-tourists-stuck-in-nepal-being-evacuated/">evacuated on repatriation flights</a>. The numbers plummeted to zero between March to September of 2020.Arrivals have only started picking up. Of the 18,000 tourist visas issued at Kathmandu airport in January-February this year, the Department of Immigration says only 2,585 were for Chinese nationals. <figure><img width="1226" height="773" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111152/636cd8769c7e80680e092e43jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>This was less than 5% of the arrivals for the same two months in 2019, and many of them were traders and workers on Chinese projects and not strictly ‘tourists’.  In the short term, the hope for Nepal’s tourism industry <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-should-now-allow-visa-on-arrival/">hinges on how effective vaccination passes become</a>. In an optimistic scenario, rapid vaccination campaigns in China and India, and their travel bubbles could allow some tourists to venture to Nepal on holiday. Nepal as a destination <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/china-social-media-erupts-on-everest-news/">got a lot of nationwide publicity in China</a> last year with the join announcement of the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-china-re-measure-height-of-mt-everest/">newly calculated height of Mt Everest.</a>On March 9, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-certificates-idUSKBN2B10LO">China became the first country to launch</a> a digital Covid-19 vaccination certificate for Chinese citizens planning cross-border travels. It shows details of inoculation and antibody tests through a QR code on a WeChat app. Although these are now in widespread use in the mainland for visits to restaurants, and domestic travel by train and plane, there is not yet an accepted international standard for vaccine passes. <img width="640" height="797" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111152/636cd8789c7e80680e092e44jpeg.jpg" alt="">Besides, Beijing has continued its ban on outbound tour groups, and this limits Nepal’s ability to attract tourists from China, with or without vaccine passports. Several southeast Asian countries like Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia that depend on Chinese tourism are trying to set up a travel bubble with China. The Thai authorities are trying to open up the country by July to Chinese tourists, and if that happens they expect 8 million tourists by the end of the year. <img width="640" height="507" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111152/636cd87b9c7e80680e092e45jpeg.jpg" alt="">Chinese officials have said that they will be talking to countries around the world about accepting the country’s vaccine passport, and it is expected that some of the 40 countries that have so far imported or used Chinese-made Sinopharm or Sinovac vaccines may be the first to do so.China has increased its gift of Sinopharm vaccines to Nepal from 500,000 to 800,000. Health Ministry Hridayesh Tripathi told Nagarik newspaper in Kathmandu on Sunday that the delay was due to the fact that Nepal needed to arrange a charter flight to bring the doses from Beijing to Kathmandu.     However, any substantial change in Chinese tourist arrivals will likely only occur in the fall of 2021, if it happens at all. According to <a href="https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202103/1217110.shtml">Chinese media</a>, only 40% of eligible Chinese citizens will be vaccinated by the end of June, with this number creeping up to 64% by the end of the year.This means it is unlikely for Chinese restrictions on outbound travel to lift until the late summer or early fall of this year. While the outlook for this year’s tourist season is bleak, there is hope that next year will provide some relief. Once tourists can provide information on their inoculation status, restrictions on arrivals and quarantines can be lifted, facilitating greater numbers of tourist arrivals into countries like Nepal.With this in mind, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-tourism-may-take-5-years-to-recover/">it is highly unlikely that Nepal will see a return to numbers</a> like the estimated <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-tourism-may-take-5-years-to-recover/">1.2 million tourists</a> that visited the country in 2019 this year or next. This reflects a global trend.Some experts project that global long-haul travel will not properly resume until 2023 or 2024, which may be too long for many industries to survive. While the Nepali government had boldly targeted the arrival of 2 million tourists to Nepal in 2020, it could be several more years before this can be attained. <figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111152/636cd87e9c7e80680e092e46jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The start of the spring trekking season is usually a goldmine for Nepal’s tourist industry. In a normal year, Nepal earns up to $700 million from the tourist industry which provides direct employment to 1 million people.With the Covid-19 pandemic halting travel worldwide, Nepal’s once-resilient tourism industry faces an anxious wait for the return of some semblance of normalcy. Yet, even with growing rates of vaccinations worldwide, Nepal’s full-reopening to foreign tourists hinges on a complex web of factors.One concerns arrival restrictions. While the Nepali government <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/call-to-ease-entry-of-tourists-to-nepal/">eased restrictions</a> on foreign visits last December, various visitor requirements still deter many. Foreigners are allowed to fly to Nepal, but require a visa from an embassy abroad before being allowed in.Similarly, visitors are required to show proof of a reservation at a designated hotel for a one-week quarantine, which may be 10 days if travelers are arriving from countries with new virus strains. Yet, even with Nepal’s Covid-19 cases declining to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/why-nepals-covid-19-figures-are-deceptive/">low levels</a>, these regulations help provide an added layer of security to protect the country from infected visitors.Another involves vaccination rates in Nepal and abroad. As one of the first countries in the region to initiate a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-braces-for-new-wave-with-vaccine-drive/">rapid vaccination</a> program, Nepal hopes to expand on its inoculation drive to include the bulk of its population, not just frontline workers and medical staff.

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When will Chinese tourists return to Nepal?

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636cccff9c7e80680e08bc51jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640"/><figcaption>Nepal took delivery of one million doses of Covishield vaccine ordered from the Serum Institute of India, on Sunday. Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>Amidst the pandemic, Covid-19 vaccines have become a means for countries to exert influence over others. This has seen global powers flex their manufacturing prowess to reap geopolitical gains.As a landlocked country perched between China and India, the world’s two most populous countries and the largest global vaccine manufacturers, Nepal has <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/glimmers-of-hope-for-nepal-on-vaccine/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/glimmers-of-hope-for-nepal-on-vaccine/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFMX8c41M-XBr18zmXA9q450CrOjw">benefited from them. </a>Attempts by both Beijing and Delhi to distribute vaccines to Nepal signify the Himalayan state’s growing strategic value to both.India made the first move. In January, New Delhi <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-nepal-vaccine-idUSKBN29W0VJ" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-nepal-vaccine-idUSKBN29W0VJ&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHvA5Q2Hq3IlOSW_YRiVLKoHZsimg">pledged to inoculate</a> Nepal’s frontline workers before any other country, and promptly dispatched one million doses of the Covishield vaccine manufactured by its <a href="https://www.seruminstitute.com/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.seruminstitute.com/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFeCK6lMJ0mEMwnhe5ZlUkRhkq83g">Serum Institute of India.</a>“Nepal is getting the vaccines within a week after India rolled out its vaccination drive, which signifies the friendship between India and Nepal and the importance India attaches to Nepal,” India’s ambassador to Nepal Vinay Mohan Kwatra said, as the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/jabs-and-jab-nots/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/jabs-and-jab-nots/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFGat2xjZpiPoxjEjZIquz-r4fqSw">first shipment of the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine arrived at Kathmandu airport.</a><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636ccd029c7e80680e08bc52jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2839" height="2092"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Such rosy optics masked recent complications in relations between the two neighbours. India’s ties with Nepal have been strained in recent years by the Kalapani border <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/06/11/interpreting-the-india-nepal-border-dispute/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/06/11/interpreting-the-india-nepal-border-dispute/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHENUQx_suOCbeya69_G1M1t9-8ZQ">dispute</a>. In May 2020, India’s Defence Ministry opened a new 80 km-long road in the Himalaya to the Chinese border that passed through territory claimed by Nepal. In response, Kathmandu changed its own official map, and set up new border posts.There had been concerns in New Delhi that Nepal has become increasingly ‘Sinified’, especially since its six-month blockade of the border in 2015. China was the architect of the alliance of Nepal’s Maoist and UML parties, which swept the 2017 elections and united to form the Nepal Communist Party (NCP).Since 2018, Prime Minister K P Oli has signed off on numerous projects that are part of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative. The NCP and the Chinese Communist Party forged fraternal ties, with various workshops on ‘Xi Jinping Thought’ held in Kathmandu.After infighting among members of the Maoist coalition, Oli was forced to dissolve Parliament in December, presenting an opportunity for New Delhi to jostle for influence. While India will need to present more robust measures of support to Nepal than vaccines to cement its influence, India has a head start in the case of vaccine diplomacy.Evidently, Beijing has grown increasingly frustrated with the NCP leadership, and has voiced its displeasure by not opening its two border checkpoints, citing the pandemic. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/chinese-tourist-influx-to-nepal-in-2020/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/chinese-tourist-influx-to-nepal-in-2020/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGmlmUxbFQO-w3a9zFkseqhfdPvxg">China’s Ambassador in Nepal Hou Yanqi</a> failed after repeated attempts to get the NCP leadership to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/is-china-now-micro-managing-nepal-politics/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/is-china-now-micro-managing-nepal-politics/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFWPcQGwn4P8cJlsujB-h5uxm4tew">patch up their differences</a>, Beijing sent its <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/is-china-now-micro-managing-nepal-politics/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/is-china-now-micro-managing-nepal-politics/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFWPcQGwn4P8cJlsujB-h5uxm4tew">Army Chief Wei Wengfe</a> to Kathmandu in November just after India’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/indias-multi-pronged-line-to-right-nepal-ties/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/indias-multi-pronged-line-to-right-nepal-ties/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHLEaB38PgM99Dyx6gKRNEM6v1gSg">Chief of Army Staff M M Navarane</a> himself paid a visit to Nepal.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636ccd069c7e80680e08bc53jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1080"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Not to be outdone in vaccine geopolitics, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called Foreign Minister Pradeep Gyawali on 5 February, and <a href="https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/t1852133.shtml" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/t1852133.shtml&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGy-kYDmw6qDY0hOU4alm8LtlGWKw">pledged </a>500,000 doses of its Sinopharm vaccine. After a long delay, the Chinese vaccine finally got approval from Nepal’s Department of Drug Administration last week for emergency use.The delay in the approval process for the Sinopharm vaccine, which has not been approved by the WHO yet, appears to have miffed Beijing. The Indian media played up supposed pressure by the Chinese Embassy in Kathmandu to fast-track the approval process.Beyond the Himalaya, vaccine geopolitics is playing out elsewhere in South Asia. Attempts by China to distribute vaccines to Bangladesh were thwarted after the government there refused to contribute to the development costs of the Sinopharm vaccine.After India donated two million doses of Covishield to Bangladesh, Dhaka struck a deal to <a href="https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/bangladesh-to-buy-indian-covid-19-vaccines-after-china-asks-to-share-vaccine-trials-cost-report/article33648633.ece" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/bangladesh-to-buy-indian-covid-19-vaccines-after-china-asks-to-share-vaccine-trials-cost-report/article33648633.ece&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG9b3i3OdybiKzX5Vufug5v02OGGw">purchase 30 million</a> doses of the vaccine for the country, snubbing Beijing. Chinese state media accused <a href="https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202101/1214041.shtml" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202101/1214041.shtml&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEoix9h2tMalRVwO7rZWBx2DMco2w">Delhi of meddling</a> with its  attempt to distribute vaccines in Bangladesh.China’s closest ally in the region, Pakistan, became the first country to receive donated shipments of China’s Sinopharm vaccine, with Beijing <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2021/02/china-gifts-pakistan-1-2-million-covid-19-vaccine-doses/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://thediplomat.com/2021/02/china-gifts-pakistan-1-2-million-covid-19-vaccine-doses/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGfbpJhrMSFm9ugwe0zMnssbFpZbw">pledging to send over</a> 1.2 million doses to Islamabad.Along with Nepal and Bangladesh, New Delhi also gifted Covishield to Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Seychelles, Mauritius and Burma as part of its ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy.Nepal also took delivery of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-braces-for-new-wave-with-vaccine-drive/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-braces-for-new-wave-with-vaccine-drive/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFOkIKOTq_lBwSlRkb9icdh4NEBhA">1 million more Covishield vaccines</a> that it ordered from the Serum Institute of India on Sunday, and another 2.2 million doses purchased by Britain under the <a href="https://www.who.int/initiatives/act-accelerator/covax" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.who.int/initiatives/act-accelerator/covax&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFCmy6JvaMqdagVd7fzazTMUZePEA">WHO’s GAVI-COVAX initiative</a> are arriving next week.China has made strategic gains in the region in recent years to India’s detriment. Through its Belt and Road Initiative, China has poured investment into Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Nepal and the Maldives. Funded by Chinese money, massive ports, highways and other infrastructure projects have been built. With its muddled bureaucracy and weaker spending power, Delhi had not been able to keep up with Beijing’s soft power expansion.Now, India is using vaccines as the vanguard of its response. The Serum Institute has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/11/world/asia/vaccine-diplomacy-india-china.html" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/11/world/asia/vaccine-diplomacy-india-china.html&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE0Xe33J3K0BozaLao6fO5i6bcnag">been producing</a> vaccine supplies at a much faster rate than the Indian government’s inoculation program can distribute them, making it easy for Delhi to send them abroad without suffering political backlash at home.This has given India a new edge for its soft power ambitions in the South Asian and Indian Ocean regions. Given that most of the developing world will not be vaccinated <a href="https://www.eiu.com/n/85-poor-countries-will-not-have-access-to-coronavirus-vaccines/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.eiu.com/n/85-poor-countries-will-not-have-access-to-coronavirus-vaccines/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFRvEEUYnAtYJl-4suTFC2JfUJFhQ">until 2023</a>, demand for vaccines will only rise. While China’s manufacturing prowess means that it is likely to keep up with demand, regional resistance to its largely un-trialed vaccines will complicate efforts to gain approval by government agencies.What happens in Nepal over the coming months will be a microcosm of regional vaccine geopolitics. The erosion of Chinese influence with its inability to keep the NCP together, gives an opening for New Delhi to reassert itself in Kathmandu.While China may have promised Nepal its continued support to help <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-will-nepals-covid-vaccine-turn-come/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-will-nepals-covid-vaccine-turn-come/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1613969755600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHVHDy7dKQmiyzWk-iPKWg82NOhBw">overcome the pandemic</a>, its assistance may not be needed or welcomed if India already fulfils this role.

South Asia’s vaccine geopolitics

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011110/636ccc3c9c7e80680e08bc10jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1550"/><figcaption>Photo: MONIKA DEUPALA</figcaption></figure>Even as Nepal completes the first phase of its Covid vaccine drive to inoculate <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-health-workers-battle-covid-19-but-also-stigma/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">frontline health workers</a> and other high-risk groups, new hyper-spreading variants of the coronavirus as well as vaccine denial have raised concerns about the efficacy of the campaign.Public health experts, however, say the government must continue its vaccination to reach as many vulnerable people as possible with a better communication strategy and more aggressive promotion.Nepal is one of the first countries in the region to start a mass Covid-19 vaccination drive. But the first phase <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/why-is-there-vaccine-hesitancy-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">saw a moderate turnout</a> with only half of the doctors, nurses, FCHVs, security personnel and cleaners prioritised by the government inoculating themselves because of the safety concerns and inaccessibility.This forced the Health Ministry to expand the first phase to also include civil servants, diplomats, bankers and journalists so that it could used up the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/jabs-and-jab-nots/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">1 million doses of Covishield vaccines donated by India</a> last month.With additional 2.25 million Covishield doses under the WHO’s COVAX initiative arriving in Nepal by early March and another 2 million that the government is in talks to purchase from the Serum Institute of India, officials are gearing up for the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/next-up-for-vaccines-elderly-nepalis/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">second phase of the vaccination</a> for people above 55 years and those with co-morbidities starting from 7 March.This will be followed by the age group 40-54 and then those below 40 years of age.“The campaign will now be community-based, unlike the first phase that was facility-based, we will take the vaccine to the people and ensure higher coverage,” assured Shyam Raj Uprety, head of government’s Covid Vaccine Strategy. “And as per the WHO recommendation, our advisory groups will soon finalise their decision to provide the second dose between 8-12 weeks.”Public health experts say that the emergence of new variants should not dissuade the government from discontinuing or scaling back its vaccine drive.“An RNA virus will have variants, it is a given, we have to live with them. In fact, we might have our own variant in South Asia, but we should keep on vaccinating and saving lives,” says Sameer Dixit of the Centre for Molecular Dynamics Nepal.Of the multiple variants circulating globally, the one first identified in the UK called B.1.1.7 is more widespread, and some have been detected in Nepal in travellers arriving from Britain. The good news is that AstraZeneca Covishield vaccine has been found to be effective against the strain.However, a trial involving 2,000 people in South Africa claimed that Oxford jabs offered only <a href="https://thewire.in/health/south-africa-asks-serum-institute-to-take-back-1-million-covid-19-vaccine-doses" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">minimal protection against mild and moderate cases</a> (of their variant B.1.351). Experts caution that it may be too soon to declare the vaccine ineffective because the study was conducted in a small population of young people.In Brazil, a variant called P.1 has been found to contain contains a set of additional mutations that may affect its ability to be recognised by antibodies, adding to the challenge.“What’s important in this debate is that even if one were to contract Covid, the vaccine will prevent people from getting severely ill and dying,” says Buddha Basnyat of the Patan Academy of Health Sciences. “Trials and emergency use so far has strongly addressed safety concerns regarding Covishield, so we can’t let news of variants put a damper on the vaccination campaign.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011110/636ccc3f9c7e80680e08bc11jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1125"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-begins-covid-19-vaccination-drive/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">nationwide vaccination campaign</a> is taking place at a time when Nepal and the rest of the South Asia are reporting much fewer cases and fatalities, much of which has been credited to limited contact tracing and herd immunity in major cities after large chunks of the population developed resistance against SARS-CoV-2 after contracting it.But the lack of surveillance, seroprevalence studies and antibody tests means that researchers have not been able to confirm localised immunity.“The government is unwilling to conduct a study despite interest from aid agencies. Results from these studies would have helped us better prepare vaccination strategy at a time when we face great resource constraint,” says Dixit.Nepal also needs to continue with <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-will-nepals-covid-vaccine-turn-come/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">vaccine diplomacy</a> and look into other shots, in particular, Chinese Sinovac and Bharat Biotech’s Covaxin. Both the vaccines use the whole inactivated (dead) virus, because of which they are unable to infect people or cause pathological effects but deploy the immune system to mount a defensive reaction against the virus.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/05/opinion/covid-vaccines-china-russia.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Sinovac made global headlines</a> when it was found to be only 50.4% effective in a trial in Brazil whereas it performed better in Turkey (91% efficacy). <a href="https://www.newindianexpress.com/cities/thiruvananthapuram/2021/feb/16/the-covaxin-conundrum-2264436.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Covaxin</a> is also controversial because of its emergency use among the frontline health workers in India despite not completing its phase three trials.It will do well for Nepal to keep track of their trials with the government aiming to vaccinate 72% of its eligible population above 18 years. People aged 55 and above make up 11% of Nepal’s population whereas the 40-54 age group account for 13%. People aged 18-39 made up nearly half of Nepal’s 28.8 million population in the 2011 census.In the meantime, the government needs to enforce the equitable distribution of the vaccine to the remotest parts of the country with the most at-risk groups high in priority. Public health experts say that with cases rising again in India, Nepal could also see a spike as people become complacent and mingle more.Says Sher Bahadur Pun of the Infectious Disease Hospital in Teku: “We have been given this reprieve with fewer cases and fatalities, we need to utilise this time to vaccinate the elderly so that the most vulnerable in our communities are protected if and when the next wave hits us.”

Sonia Awale

Nepal braces for new wave with vaccine drive

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.

Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy

American artist Peter Makela was in Nepal in 2022 on a Fulbright scholarship when he experienced the Matya festival in Patan in which devotees made the rounds of the city’s shrines.&nbsp;
He joined the procession, walking through 2,600 stupa and 140 bahal of the town. That immersion left a lasting impression.
As part of Gallery Mcube’s international residency program in Patan, he put his inspiration to canvas in the exhibition Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping. The exhibition also coincides with this month’s Matya festival.&nbsp;
Makela has visited Nepal often in the past 11 years but he mostly stayed in and spent his time around Boudha. “This time I stayed in Patan, put the sites I wanted to visit on my map, and off I went,” he tells us. “Each of my artwork is inspired by the stupas and shrines in Patan that I visited.”
The stupa and Ganesh are recurring motifs in his watercolours, and the elephant gods are located in chaityas — reflecting the interplay and blending of the Hindu and Buddhist faiths in Kathmandu Valley.&nbsp;
The stupas and Ganesh are painted in vivid red, yellow, blue and green against abstract backgrounds meant to represent the sky.
“I use the sky as a backdrop because the sky has no border,” says Makela. “The four colours represent the four elements, the different Buddha families and also lights bouncing off of a rainbow.”
The use of just four colours for all the artwork stands out, and combined with the absence of heavy canvases, frames or stands render Makela’s art striking in its simplicity.&nbsp;
The Ganesh is always holding something and the art also portrays the elephant god’s sacred vehicle, the mouse.
While his vibrant stupas and Ganesh reflect the tangibility of Patan’s tradition and heritage, it is as if the backdrops with their shades of grey and red and yellow capture the soul of the city’s shrines.
“If you look closely, there is a sense of form and formlessness at the same time,” he says.&nbsp;
Makela walked 108 kora around the shrines during his exploration of the town, and in the process developed a spiritual connection with Patan’s heritage and traditions.&nbsp;
The exhibition connects with visitors on a deeper, more spiritual, level as well. And with it, they feel a sense of pride as well as the need to urgently preserve Patan’s heritage for future generations.
“Peter’s inclination and approach towards Nepali art and culture is fascinating, and it reflects in his work,” says Mcube curator Manish Lal Shrestha, whose international artist residency program promotes Nepal’s cultural heritage. &nbsp;&nbsp;
Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping
1-5 August&nbsp;
10AM-7PM
Gallery Mcube, Patan