Nepal Nexus, the English translation and updated version of the 2013 bestseller <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/by-the-way/nepal-politics-india-interest-prayogshala,176" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Prayogshala </a>by editor <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=18914#.XkEYJjIzbIU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sudheer Sharma</a>, offers readers a vivid account of Nepal’s ten-year conflict, the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=11741#.XkEaUTIzbIU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2006 people’s movement</a>, the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/nepal-from-royal-to-republic,3736" target="_blank" rel="noopener">fragile transition</a> that followed, to the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2015/02/13/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-maoists/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Maoists’ subsequent rise to power</a>. The English version was translated by Sanjaya Dhakal for Penguin India and released last year.Sharma, who was and is once more the editor of Kantipur, begins with a personal account of his experience as a war reporter during the time of the state-Maoist conflict. Although he describes the book as an inside account of the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), the reader finds it more of an account of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Shadowing-prachanda,3383" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Prachanda</a>’s rise to power, and only tangentially of the party he led.  Sharma has a soft corner for Prachanda, and does not conceal his sympathies for the erstwhile revolutionaries. ‘It is my view that the major credit for <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/346/Editorial/13468#.XkEbDDIzbIU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">restructuring the state</a> should go to the Maoists,’ may come across to many as giving too much credit to the CPN(M) for what was essentially a violent shortcut to power. To be fair, the journalist in Sharma tries to be objective and balance his views with those of others with explanations, experiences, and interviews. (See box, below) <figure><img width="640" height="831" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101132/636b74439c7e80680e062384jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: KIRAN PANDEY</figcaption></figure>The translation may not exactly be a page-turner, but has gripping revelations about the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/The-turning-point-war-nepal,3986" target="_blank" rel="noopener">dynamics</a> between the palace, Parliament, the (Royal) Nepal Army, Nepal Police and the Maoists between 1996 and 2006. The account of just how much India’s <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/by-the-way/Nepal-elections-India-influence,164" target="_blank" rel="noopener">intelligence agency RAW </a>was micro-managing Nepali politics through the conflict, during and after the <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/three-kings-in-four-days-nepal-massacre" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2001 royal palace massacre</a> gives new insight into the cloak and dagger world of spooks.One of the highlights of Sharma’s book is the treatment of Nepal’s relations with its neighbours, in particular India’s role in helping the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=8406#.XkEfxDIzbIU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Maoists join mainstream politics – apparently as a way to weaken a nationalist monarchy </a>as well as to show India’s own Maoist revolutionaries that there was an electoral path to power. <img width="200" height="275" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101132/636b74459c7e80680e062385jpeg.jpg" alt=""><a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=5110#.XkEgDDIzbIU">Sh</a><a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=5110#.XkEgDDIzbIU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">yam Saran</a>, who was Indian ambassador to Nepal (2002-2004) and went on to become foreign secretary (2004-2006), looks at the broader question of India’s place in the world in his book. There are sections in <a href="https://www.amazon.in/How-India-Sees-World-Kautilya/dp/9386228858/ref=sr_1_1?qid=1581327963&amp;refinements=p_27%3AShyam+Saran&amp;s=books&amp;sr=1-1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">How India Sees the World</a> that deal with the same historical period as <a href="https://www.amazon.in/Nepal-Nexus-Inside-Account-Maoists/dp/0670089303/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=nepal+nexus%5C&amp;qid=1581328025&amp;s=books&amp;sr=1-1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal Nexus</a>, but from New Delhi’s perspective. Saran came as <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/from-nepali-press/Saran-undid-monarchy-deal,2081" target="_blank" rel="noopener">envoy after the royal massacre</a> and witnessed Gyanendra’s four years of steady power consolidation. By 2005, the king was in open confrontation with New Delhi, and Saran writes that India's <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=13431#.XkEg3TIzbIU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">‘twin pillar’ doctrine</a> to support <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=317#.XkEguDIzbIU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">constitutional monarchy and parliamentary democracy</a> became untenable, and Delhi turned to the seven party alliance with the Maoists (nicknamed ‘SPAM’).Almost every Nepali is an expert on relations with India, and social media has profuse conspiracy theories about Big Brother. Many writers and diplomats have dissected Indo-Nepal relations during the turbulent period from 1990-2017. For his part, Sharma tries to provide evidence of India’s constant meddling in Nepal’s internal affairs – right from the 1950 Treaty to the 2015 blockade.Sections of Saran’s book that deal with Nepal see things quite differently, of course, and that is to be expected. He has an opposite take on New Delhi’s behind-the-scenes dealings in Kathmandu. In the chapter ‘India and Nepal: A Relationship of Paradox’, Saran describes the souring of the relations between the neighbours after the promulgation of Nepal’s Constitution and the economic blockade that followed in 2015.Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/campaigning-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Campaigning in Nepal</a>, EditorialSaran defends India’s handling of that tumultuous period, absolving <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=5604#.XkEhOzIzbIU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">South Block</a> and the PMO of all blame for allowing bilateral relations, which Prime Minister Modi had normalised with his<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/by-the-way/india-foreign-policy-shift-offers-nepal-chance-to-redefine-ties,339" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> 2014 visit to Kathmandu</a>, to disintegrate. The chapter may as well have been titled: ‘How the Indian State Wrecked Relations with Nepal’.Saran describes how it was India that steered the Maoists into above-ground politics in 2006, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2016/02/03/rethinking-secularism/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">introduced secularism into Nepal’s new constitution</a>, and how it opposed that same constitution for the sake of the rights of Madhesis. Ironies of ironies: regime change in India meant the BJP is no longer a big fan of Nepal’s secular constitution.Sudheer Sharma’s analysis of the Indian blockade calls a spade a spade: India was angry about not being consulted about the new <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/GUEST-COLUMN/madhes-more-integrated-with-rest-of-nepal,366" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Madhes province which did not include five contentious provinces</a>: Jhapa, Morang, Sunsari in the east and Kanchanpur, Kailali in the western Tarai. ‘After it refused to entertain India’s counsel and coercion, many in Nepal thought India decided it was time to teach a lesson to its small neighbour … with the ultimate weapon of a border blockade,’ writes Sharma, providing examples of covert Indian involvement in supporting the<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2015/07/21/unrest-in-madhes/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Madhes agitation</a>.Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/eminently-beneficial-for-india-and-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Eminently beneficial for India and Nepal</a>, Ajit Baral Shyam Saran sees it differently: ‘Supplies from India to Nepal were blocked by the Madhesis in the border leading to hostile sentiments among Nepalis.’ Saran sticks with the story that India supported the rights of Madhesis in the writing of the 2015 Constitution. He writes, rather condescendingly, that India has always been generous towards Nepal and that, despite all the help, Nepalis always misunderstood its large neighbour.Interestingly, <a href="https://cprindia.org/sites/default/files/A%20complex%20nexus%20in%20Nepal.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Shyam Saran himself reviewed Sudheer Sharma’s Nepal Nexus</a> in the India’s Business Standard newspaper. He wrote: ‘The book creates the impression that the Madhesi issue is somehow created by India and that it flows from the ethnic links of the people of the Nepal Tarai and those living across the border in UP and Bihar. However, there are <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/indian-nepalis-alarmed-by-citizenship-amendment-bill/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">several million Indian citizens of Nepali origin</a> especially in Uttarakhand, West Bengal and Assam, and they are all from the hill districts of Nepal. Mr Sharma could have at least acknowledged some of these additional and significant dimensions of the relationship between the two countries.’Read Also: <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/autopsy-of-a-blockade%20,2863" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Autopsy of a blockade</a>, EditorialShyam Saran goes on to accuse Sharma of making an ‘illogical claim’ that India was afraid that the communist insurgency would spill over from the Nepal into the Gangetic plains and destabilise the entire region, and that this was why it felt Nepal’s Maoists needed to be mainstreamed.Bilateral relations between Kathmandu and New Delhi are once more at a low point because of the border dispute over <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/territorialism/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kalapani</a>, and perspectives that do not engage beyond the state’s official line will not help find common ground. Hopefully, both political leaders and the general public in India and Nepal and India will better understand the complex chemistry of their ties, and will find common ground. Alas, neither of these two books will help do that. <figure><img width="418" height="634" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101132/636b74479c7e80680e062386jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><figure><img width="434" height="660" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101132/636b74499c7e80680e062387jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><h2>Sudheer Sharma on Nepal Nexus</h2> Sudheer Sharma has returned once more to Kantipur as editor, and speaks about the English translation of his book, The Nepal Nexus. He spoke to Nepali Times this week about how it has been received in Nepal and India.  Nepali Times: What has been the reaction to the translation of your book?Sudheer Sharma:  I have always wanted English readers to be able to read and have documentation that would help them in research. I have been to various book shops in and around Kathmandu to sign my books, but it was in Pokhara, that I saw the overwhelming reaction of readers. At this week’s Kantipur Conclave there was much positive response. It has been selling well in Delhi’s Khan Market.  What is different in Nepal Nexus compared to Prayogshala?Prayogshala was released in 2013 after the Constituent Assembly had just been dissolved. Since then there have been significant changes in Nepal’s politics. Nepal Nexus is not just a translated version of Prayogshala but is updated with four additional chapters that look at the promulgation of constitution in 2015, the Madhes movement, Indian blockade, the rise of KP Oli and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/tsu-namo-2-0-and-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Narendra Modi </a>and the <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/political-geography-of-india-nepal-china-ties/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">growing relationship with China.</a> <figure><img width="1440" height="1440" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101132/636b744b9c7e80680e062388jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>How did the idea of Nepal Nexus come about? Soon after the release of Prayogshala, Penguin India contacted me to release the book in English as well. It sounded interesting. Sanjaya Dhakal did the translation and with initial help from Thomas Bell.While many have appreciated your book, some have not. Whether official or unofficial, India never declared the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/aftershocks-of-the-blockade/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2015 border blockade</a>. But I have documented the facts with research and investigation. Naturally, some people do not like what it reveals. Some readers think the book is based on the history of Maoists movement, but in reality, it’s about three entities that have shaped Nepal – the monarchy, Maoists and New Delhi. The monarchy is gone, and the Maoist party is dissolved, and we are still trying to mend our relationship with New Delhi.Former Indian foreign secretary Shyam Saran criticised your book in a review.  He has not challenged me factually. We all have different interpretations and it is fair to have different opinions. As a matter of fact, I liked his review. The book is now public property, everyone is entitled to pass on their opinions. More discussion, the merrier.Where is India-Nepal relations now? Nepal and India need to have a relationship that is built on equality and respect. India has always tried to micromanage Nepal, and that was clear when they sent a special envoy to stop the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2015/09/20/peoples-constitution/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Constitution in 2015.</a> It was the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/As-It-Happens/when-the-blockade-ends,618" target="_blank" rel="noopener">border blockade</a> that really damaged relations. Nepal and India should have a vibrant relationship, there are problems and we need to jointly find solutions to. There are more problems from India, but Nepal too has problems.  How can the two neighbours redefine their relationship?There are many clauses and treaties that should be revised. Particularly the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=16852#.XkEdXjIzbIU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">1950 treaty</a> and some other clauses that have kept Nepal in an unequal and unfair position. India needs to change its mindset and should not treat Nepal like its ‘little brother’. Nepal also has to change its behaviour. We are overly dependent on India, and this needs to be reduced. If <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/eminently-beneficial-for-india-and-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">treaties and agreements are revised</a>, I am sure the relationship between these two neighbours will be stronger than before. Readers' write:It is strange that the role of China did not find a mention in this interview with Sudheer Sharma. Everything said an done, China has figured as the new critical variable for redefining and mending Nepal's ties with India. Compared to the 2015 days, India is more amenable and respectful in its dealings with Nepal . For instance, the cross border petroleum pipeline that has been on the anvil for ages has since been realized, only because, following China's major inroad into Nepal, India found out that its traditionally sadistic attitude of browbeating Nepal into submission would work no longer. While India has been viscerally unprepared to deal with smaller nieghbours in equal terms, Nepal's own politicians of whichever stated ideological hue have been unprepared to put Nepal First in their dealings with their overlords in India. Much has happened since India pushed Nepal into China's embrace beginning 2015 blockade. The troublesome Madhesi front has quietened. Open interferences from New Delhi or its outpost at Lainchaur have become things of the past. The belligerents in New Delhi have learned their lesson: Today, the whole of India blames them for pushing Nepal into China's embrace. While Nepal must be enormously grateful to China, there is much more that the country should be doing towards helping the Nepali politicians to put Nepal First in their own ideological commitment s and dealing with the rest of the world.Bihari Krishna Shrestha

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Two takes on the Nepal-India nexus

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.

Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy

French citizen Louis arrived in Nepal for the first time earlier this year, planning to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/the-abcs-of-a-winter-trek-in-nepal">trek the Annapurna Circuit </a>before heading down to Bardia to hopefully catch a glimpse of some<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-counting-its-tigers"> tigers</a>. Before he began his journey from Besisahar, Louis (who only revealed his first name) had imagined breathing crisp mountain air, and following the melodious gurgle of the Marsyangdi.&nbsp; Instead, he had to breathe fumes and dust all the way to Chame. Louis says he masked his face with a handkerchief: “It was not what I expected, this is not right.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080304080_f03fce1527cf8a63178e4e82589a1a7096c8cfa28893ca4a5f7fe82d91a6e38a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="2025080304080_f03fce1527cf8a63178e4e82589a1a7096c8cfa28893ca4a5f7fe82d91a6e38a" data-rendition-name="original" width="2419" height="1814" loading="lazy" alt="Manang trails NT 1"> </figure>  Many other trekkers are similarly disappointed as roads have been built along what used to be <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/a-walk-back-in-time-chandragiri-hatiban">walking trails</a>. Manang and Humla are the last remote regions in the Himalaya to be connected to the national road network. &nbsp;Construction of the 87km Besisahar-Manang road began in 1994, but was stalled during <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/14-years-after-conflict-no-closure-in-nepal">the Maoist conflic</a>t, and finally finished in 2012.&nbsp; Most of it has not yet been blacktopped, and sections have been carved out of vertical cliff faces, making them treacherous. But it has allowed road access to Manang, a journey that previously took a week on foot.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080304084_32b3ca875a0df9f1dd42dbe915e6f6a2cd4f2e53f1cf2d3ee5cbdb3435905000.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="2025080304084_32b3ca875a0df9f1dd42dbe915e6f6a2cd4f2e53f1cf2d3ee5cbdb3435905000" data-rendition-name="original" width="2400" height="1505" loading="lazy" alt="Manang trails NT 1"> </figure>  While the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-road-out-of-nepal">road has improved access</a>, it has impacted on<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/trekking-in-the-time-of-climate-change"> trekking tourism </a>— the mainstay of Manang’s economy. The number of tourists visiting the scenic valley behind the Annapurnas grew from 21,245 in 2023 to 30,866 in 2024. The Annapurna Circuit is known for unique sights like <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=9194">Tilicho</a>, one of the highest lakes in the world, the Thorong La pass that connects Manang to Mustang, and the valley’s own rich cultural heritage. Thorong La at 5,416m is the highest hiking pass in the world, and was used by locals for trade with Mustang before it became a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/lift-restrictions-on-upper-mustang">popular trekking route</a>. &nbsp; “For guests, the excitement of reaching Thorong La is now overshadowed by their disappointment of having to journey through dusty roads to get there,” says Manang lodge-owner Ongma Gurung. “That is the complaint we get the most.” <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/tourism-that-treads-lightly-on-the-land">Local tourism </a>operators are trying to get the government to build alternative foot trails. But there have been delays due to a lack of budget.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080304084_c5f76e398182785bb17846a148e3ca89de5687b4623580f8e2d725a7a287edfa.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="2025080304084_c5f76e398182785bb17846a148e3ca89de5687b4623580f8e2d725a7a287edfa" data-rendition-name="original" width="2419" height="1762" loading="lazy" alt="Manang trails"> </figure>  The Naso Rural Municipality has identified other routes along the Annapurna Circuit in Chyamche, Tal, and Khotro so trekkers can bypass heavy vehicles involved in the construction of the Manang-Marsyangdi Hydropower Project. “But the local government cannot do everything,” admits the chair Dhan Bahadur Gurung. “And for leaders in Kathmandu, Manang is out of sight and out of mind.” Munindra Jung Gurung represents Manang in the Gandaki Provincial Assembly, and says he has raised the issue in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/pokhara-s-tourism-woes">Pokhara</a>. He is hopeful there will be a hearing. To be sure, the road is not all bad news. Locals benefit, the number of visitors has grown, and trekkers can now also save time and use it to explore <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=5960">side valleys in Manang</a>, visiting the villages like Nar and Phu. Annapurna Conservation Area (ACA) chief Rabin Kadariya concedes that the road to Upper Manang was crucial to connect the remote region with the rest of Nepal, but adds: “We have built an alternative trail connecting Talgaun, and we will consult local communities about their priorities on other hiking trails.”&nbsp;

the-nepal-nexus

Two takes on the Nepal-India nexus

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Nepal’s bubble economy

Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy

Trailing off in Manang