This June, monsoon rains brought freak floods to the mountains of Nepal while parts of the plains reeled from a severe water shortage. This has always been the story of the Himalaya: either too much water or too little. This contrast is now aggravated by the impact of the climate crisis. While flash floods ravaged eastern Nepal, destroying hydropower plants, wells dried out in the Tarai on the border with India amidst a prolonged drought affecting rice planting. The water table on both sides of the border has been going down due to over-extraction by deep tube wells as well as the destruction of the groundwater recharge areas of the Chure Range, the southernmost foothills of the Himalaya. The Chure is being ravaged by quarries, deforestation and population growth. However, this transboundary water crisis is absent from bilateral negotiations on river sharing between India and Nepal. Nepali Times columnist Chandra Kishore was the first to draw attention to the seriousness of the water crisis. He wrote in a page 1 report in this newspaper on 28 July: ‘The climate crisis is a water crisis, and access to water used to be determined by who bore deep wells for water. But even those with pumps do not have water, and the worst hit are the poorest families.’ Chandra Kishore has taken to social media to express his frustration that these important issues never seem to be on the political agenda in India or Nepal, and even less in conversations between the two governments. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/borderlines/grain-drain">Grain drain</a>, Chandra Kishore “Kathmandu listens a bit but doesn’t act, since the leadership is too busy dealing with India on how to stay on in power,” he says. “And Bihar’s voice rarely reaches Delhi.” The Indian state is currently governed by a party opposed to the BJP that rules India. Chandra Kishore’s frustration speaks to a wider failure by the Nepali government to prioritise domestic problems — from changes in the Himalayan water cycle and ecological destruction to a shortage of electricity grids – if they complicate or threaten economic ties with India. Up to 70% of the annual water flow in the Ganges River comes down from tributaries in Nepal — most of that in the four monsoon months. These Himalayan rivers are central to the lives and livelihoods of millions of citizens in India and Nepal. Poor water management in both countries with poorly designed flood control embankments and infrastructure, insufficient groundwater recharge, and over-pumping have worsened the effect of weather extremes due to the climate crisis. Despite these factors, high-profile bilateral discussions between India and Nepal usually overlook climate change and other environmental concerns. In 2014, the countries jointly issued a 35-point press release on Narendra Modi’s first prime ministerial visit to Nepal that did not even mention climate change. During the next four visits Modi has made, the climate crisis has never come up.&nbsp; Rather than talking about the vulnerabilities of their shared river systems, India and Nepal use these meetings solely to explore the potential to generate hydropower. Hydro-electricity makes up 96% of Nepal’s installed electricity capacity, and exporting power to India could help Nepal reduce its trade deficit. During Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s visit to India in June, a long-term energy trade agreement was finalised. Prime Minister Modi confirmed in a joint press conference that India would import 10,000MW of electricity in the next decade. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/balance-of-power">Balance of Power</a>, Sonia Awale  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2023082519080_fddd55cd2af19d62b216471a41a205703cfb10869e98c84b98e2c17dc38846fa.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="2023082519080_fddd55cd2af19d62b216471a41a205703cfb10869e98c84b98e2c17dc38846fa" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Dam site of Upper Karnali hydropower "> <figcaption>Dam site of Upper Karnali hydropower (900MW) in Daab in Dailekh district. The Indian company GMR is in the final stage to start construction of the project.</figcaption> </figure>  Experts say that India’s main concern is not electricity but water, and its planners are fully aware of the impact climate change will have on future water availability. But Indian officials hide the real agenda by talking only about electricity. Nepal’s former water resources minister Dipak Gyawali told The Third Pole: “To India, climate change is a foreign agenda and for Nepal, it’s something to talk about to be nice, especially with western countries.” While Nepal negotiates with India to try to export more hydroelectricity, many within Nepal do not have adequate or reliable supply of power. The Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) has been trying to unsuccessfully increase domestic consumption, and one reason is frequent power cuts even during the monsoon. Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) spokesperson Suresh Bahadur Bhattarai says the installed hydropower generation in the rainy season is 2,800MW, while peak demand hovers at 1,800MW. There is surplus power, but there are not enough transmission lines to evacuate power. Energy experts say there has been too much focus on electricity generation and not enough on transmission lines. Says former head of NEA Mukesh Kafle: “As a result, several hydro projects haven’t been able to dispatch generated energy to the grid and, with increasing demand, local distributions systems aren’t able to handle the load.”&nbsp; Most of Nepal’s hydropower is generated by private investors, and one such is the Super Dordi in Lamjung district. The Dordi River is in full spate because of heavy rains this month, but the scheme with an installed capacity of 54MW is only generating 10MW.&nbsp; Says Super Dordi’s Ganesh Karki: “If we had a transmission line, we could run at full capacity.” The reason for power outages this monsoon is not because there is not enough electricity, but because inadequate transmission lines means the power generated cannot be distributed to the load centres, leading to frequent tripping. &nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-india-power-play">Nepal-India power play</a>, Ramesh Kumar  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2023082519080_446338cad11f4dedee1be6949aa3b422c0c31b6abda6b84f12abdb2a2bb1f9a2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="2023082519080_446338cad11f4dedee1be6949aa3b422c0c31b6abda6b84f12abdb2a2bb1f9a2" data-rendition-name="original" width="897" height="605" loading="lazy" alt="Hydropower graph"> </figure>  Addition of vital transmission lines was held up because of the delays in the ratification of the US-funded MCC scheme, as well as local obstruction to putting up poles and obtaining necessary permits to clear forests. “The outages are going to get worse if things remain the same,” the NEA’s Bhattarai warned.&nbsp; The Independent Power Producers Association of Nepal (IPPAN) would prefer to sell power domestically, but since it is difficult to increase power demand within Nepal and meet it with enough transmission lines, exporting to India is the only option. Nepal’s Department of Electricity Development has issued 241 construction licenses for generating more than 8,820MW. And there are hydropower construction applications awaiting approval that would generate more than 8,680MW. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Water Resources, Energy and Irrigation is working on a 10-year national hydropower strategy, but says it is not yet ready to share details. Not everybody is as excited about selling electricity to India. Gyawali thinks such interest in Nepali hydropower is being driven not by market forces, but by the Indian government’s wish to exercise strategic control over Nepal. India only imports hydroelectricity from Nepal that does not have Chinese investment or involvement. Indian companies have replaced China as the country’s principal investors in the hydropower sector. India is now involved in projects generating 4,000MW and a further 1,100MW was signed off between Dahal and Modi in June. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-geopolitics-of-nepal-s-water-and-electricity">The geopolitics of Nepal’s water and electricity</a>, Ramesh Kumar  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2023082519080_d02f8ca4827333387eeda9e6b08170f6224d166be3de89decd8e6c9e9316cdcc.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="2023082519080_d02f8ca4827333387eeda9e6b08170f6224d166be3de89decd8e6c9e9316cdcc" data-rendition-name="original" width="1266" height="856" loading="lazy" alt="Hydropower graph"> </figure>  River conservationists are also worried about the domestic cost of developing hydroelectricity for India. Megh Ale, president of the Nepal River Conservation Trust, says: “Imagine what will happen to these rivers if you just think about electricity. In the last two decades, we have dammed almost all our major river systems except the Karnali. We should also think about ecology and ecosystems while not undermining the need for electricity. The current madness will be costly.” Several studies have warned that Nepal’s dams have already impacted aquatic biodiversity. A study by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in 2018 says: ‘Damming of rivers has had huge environmental costs with serious and irreversible impacts, including a rapid decline in the population of many fish species.’ Basanta Raj Adhikari, the director of Tribhuvan University’s Centre for Disaster Studies says that Indian investment in Nepali hydropower is reason enough to take climate change into account: “It is going to impact India’s own investment. Extreme rainfall in June in the hills of eastern Nepal washed away several hydro projects.” The Institute for Social and Environmental Transition (ISET) in Kathmandu released a report in June on transboundary rivers that originate in the Chure Range. It highlights that the various Nepali-Indian agreements governing these rivers are obsolete and do not cover sustainable water management, participation, or recognise emerging risks. “It’s basically an underestimation of the scale of the problem,” says Ajaya Dixit of ISET.&nbsp; A June 2023 study by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) in Kathmandu says the availability of water in the Himalaya is expected to peak in mid-century, driven by accelerated glacial melt, after which it is projected to decline. It is not just Nepal, where the impacts of the climate crisis are being felt. This month’s devastating floods in northern India could also be a sign of worse to come. Climate change is going to have a geo-strategic impact because of how it will affect our rivers. But so far, the concern of experts and scientists is not reflected in bilateral and regional consultations on river sharing. &nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-s-precious-electricity-going-waste">Nepal’s precious electricity going waste</a>, Anita Bhetwal This version of the piece was originally published on The Third Pole under the Creative Commons license, and was written by Ramesh Bhushal, Nepal Editor at The Third Pole.

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India, Nepal ignore climate crisis in river talks

<figure><img width="640" height="480" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d191b9c7e80680e0ac7fejpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: LENA QUENARD </figcaption></figure>Nepal’s diverse climate and topography favors a maximum number of species in such a small area, but this biodiversity is threatened by a climate induced water crisis. For a country that occupies only 0.1% of the total land area on the planet, Nepal is home to 3.2% of the world’s flora and 1.1% of its fauna. Its 31 national parks, six conservation areas and nature reserves extend from the Tarai plains to the high Himalaya, covering nearly a quarter of the Nepal’s area. But there is growing concern about water sources inside national parks going dry because of the impact of the climate crisis. Pumping water also needs energy, which can be expensive.This is why a pilot project in Nepal has found it useful to use solar energy to pump up groundwater to fill perennial watering holes that have gone dry.  Wild elephants require about up to 100 litres daily, and the bigger animals can drink up to  212 litres of water in less than five minutes. A tiger needs 70 litres per day, depending on the season. Tigers also need water courses to cool off during the summer months. The rhinoceros is highly dependent on water and will drink up to 72 litres per day. With Nepal’s conservation success story, national parks are getting crowded with predators and prey, increasing competition along oxbow lakes, lakes and ponds. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/naturally-nepal/">Weather extremes due to the climate</a> crisis has also made water availability more acute. Unpredictable precipitation patterns have resulted in a shortage of water in national parks, which have resulted in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-is-going-up-in-smoke/">unprecedented wildfires</a>. The decline in water courses has also led to a drop in birdlife, including stopovers by migratory birds.Now, Bardia National Park in the western plains is experimenting with pilot solar water pumps to keep watering holes filled up so that wildlife have a place to wallow and drink. The Park has been seeing <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/its-a-jungle-out-there/">a drop in prey density mainly due to a water shortage</a>, and this is forcing tigers, rhinos and wild elephants in the park to venture out.The diversion of the Karnali River for quarrying upstream from the Park has also meant that a channel of the river that used to feed into the Park has less water in it, leading to a drop in ground water which means ponds and lakes have gone dry.Solar water pumps use photovoltaic panels to pump out the water from rivers and reservoirs, wells or boreholes and feed it directly onto fields or into a storage tank. The  water can then be used for irrigation, water livestock, household and drinking purpose.  <figure><img width="274" height="365" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d191d9c7e80680e0ac7ffjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>A solar water pump in the premises of Bardia National Park. Photo: ROSHAN KUMAR CHETTRI</figcaption></figure>Bardia’s experience has shown that solar pumps provide a more sustainable, clean, cheap and reliable source of water for wildlife and also for the indigenous communities living near the protected areas, while simultaneously reducing the carbon footprint and providing the animals with a quieter eco-friendly habitat.  This solar water pump project could be replicated in Chitwan, Parsa and other national parks which are also facing water shortages in the dry months. Solar pumps can work up to 8 hours a day to refill partially dried-up ponds and lakes while allowing the excess water to flow downstream. Studies have shown that adequate water in ponds and streams inside parks draw deer and other prey species, which means predators like tigers and leopards also have less of a need to venture out to attack livestock. Herbivores like wild elephants and rhinos also have less of a tendency to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/human-animal-interface-in-nepal-wildlife-corridor/">wander outside the park</a> in search of water or grass.All this results in a reduction of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/close-encounters-with-tigers-in-nepal/">human-animal contact</a>, which has been growing in recent years in national parks and buffer zones, especially in the Tarai.The solar pump systems in Bardia have photovoltaic modules, electric pump and a controller. The panels are usually installed up to 4m above ground level and surrounded by a trench to protect them from animals that could harm the devices. Installation, operation and maintenance of the pump is simple, with the only caveat being that the ground water level must be sufficiently high.With the cost of solar panels and pumps having gone down, it is now among the most efficient ways to channel water to the communities and to help wildlife in Nepal’s conservation areas.   <img width="79" height="109" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d191e9c7e80680e0ac800jpeg.jpg" alt="">Roshan Chhetri is a mechanical engineer, working as a Renewable Energy Officer at WindPower Nepal.

Water for Nepal’s wildlife

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The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic

<figure><img width="1400" height="933" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171132/636933619c7e80680e03df95jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption></figure>Next week as Nepalis celebrate Tihar, the festival of lights, few will remember that it will mark the second anniversary of the end of paralysing power cuts.Sometimes lasting up to 18 hours a day, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/how-they-kept-nepal-in-the-dark-ages/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">load-shedding</a> increased the people’s hardship and crippled the economy. The man credited for ending power cuts, <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/interview/interview-with-Kulman-Ghising,3409" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kulman Ghising</a> of the Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) said this week: “Light up your houses this Tihar, there is enough electricity.”The NEA estimates that demand next week will peak at 1,270 MW, but Ghising says there is enough supply from domestic generation and <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/nepal-india-thermal-power,3570" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Indian imports</a> to meet it. Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-climax/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate climax</a>, Editorial <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/from-a-fossil-past-to-an-electric-future/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">From a fossil past to an electric future</a>, Om Astha Rai <img width="327" height="327" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171132/636933649c7e80680e03df96jpeg.jpg" alt="">The reason for Ghising’s confidence is that 30MW has been added this year, his efforts to manage supply and cut leakage have increased capacity, and the Kulekhani reservoir is full. Even all this would not have ensured enough power – the real reason there will not be a dark Tihar is because of electricity imports from India.This year, Nepal’s electricity demand reached 1,281MW, but domestic generation never exceeded 525MW. The shortfall was made up by importing up to 505MW of electricity from coal-fired thermal plants in Bihar. Even with that, industries and some districts still suffered power cuts. The end to <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/corruption-in-electricity-industry-of-Nepal,3408" target="_blank" rel="noopener">load-shedding</a> has come at great environmental and economic cost. The average per capita carbon footprint of Nepalis is still low, but it has doubled because of fossil energy bought from India. The electricity import bill this year added Rs20 billion to the Rs150 billion Nepal was already spending to buy petroleum products from India.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/decarbonise-now/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Decarbonise now</a>, Ajaya Dixit<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/electri-city-cars/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Electri-City Cars</a>, Sikuma RaiThe government defends the power import, arguing that it is only a stop-gap measure and transmission lines built to import electricity from India can later be used to export Nepal’s surplus power to the Indian market.Former Minister of Water Resources Dipak Gyawali says that is not likely to happen because Nepal’s electricity demand is growing 100MW per year, and there is a lot of suppressed demand that not even big projects like Tama Kosi (440MW) can cover.Instead of building cross-border transmission lines, Gyawali urges the NEA to focus on connecting small hydro projects to the national grid to meet future domestic growth in consumption for cooking and transportation.Sadly, even while importing electricity generated from dirty coal from India, NEA cannot buy clean hydropower from private plants like the 6MW Khani Khola because they do not have transmission lines connecting them to the grid.Says one hydropower investor: “This is the irony of it all: we want to sell our electricity to NEA, but it is buying power from India.”

The cost of light

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171132/636933719c7e80680e03df9bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="650" height="581"/>The conclusion of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/on-thin-ice-in-the-khumbu/">Global Warming</a> of 1.5ºC could not have been more blunt: human-induced global warming poses an existential threat to the planet. And to Nepal.To avert this, the report has called for pathways that look unachievable. The US government has already indicated it will withdraw from the 2015 Paris Agreement that agreed on measures to limit worldwide average temperatures rise to 1.5-2ºC by 2100. Developing countries like India and China are now the biggest producers of greenhouse gases.Actions that could help minimise the impact of climate change risk have been slow. Part of the reason is socio-cultural. Citizens in developing countries feel they were not responsible for the problem, the impact may be felt at some point in the future, so why worry? There is a prevalent view that weather extremes have always been with us, people are used to coping with them, and have carried on with their lives. Some feel human ingenuity will prevail, and there will be a technological solution.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-climax/">Climate Climax</a>, Editorial<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/from-a-fossil-past-to-an-electric-future/">From a fossil past to an electric future</a>, Om Astha Rai<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171132/636933739c7e80680e03df9cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="327" height="327">Leaders of developing and least developed countries that suffer the worst consequences of <a style="background-color: #ffffff; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/melting-mountains-shake,3073">global warming</a> argue that their priority is economic development, and they can invest in clean energy later when they can afford it.The net global C02 emission pathways in the IPCC Special Report requires the curve to come sharply down after 2020 and reach zero emission by 2040 or 2050 (see graph). How will this happen? To answer this, we have to first ask how we got here in the first place.Climate change is a consequence of the global economic order of the past two centuries that was powered by burning fossil fuels. It has brought benefits, but also given the world inequality, dependence, degradation of nature, and nationalistic populism. In the US that is a partisan divide between climate change believers and deniers. Liberal democracy is faltering in Europe.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/electri-city-cars/">Electri-City Cars</a>, Sikuma Rai<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-cost-of-light/">The cost of light</a>, Om Astha Rai<a style="outline: 0px;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/climate-for-change/the-great-himalayan-thaw/">The great Himalayan thaw</a>, Ajaya DixitIn the past six decades, many developing countries including Nepal sought foreign aid to lift living standards, but the strategy did not bring about structural changes that would have helped ensure social welfare and environmental protection. The economic model was western-inspired wasteful consumerism. In Nepal, this saw social and political movements, and country suffered three border blockades, a decade-long war, five constitutions, a palace massacre, and the replacement of a monarchy with a federalised republican order. Nepal’s current socio-politics shows signs of regression, while the economy is built on ecologically-destructive extractive practices.Most solutions are externally imposed, and have only worked when co-produced with communities. Past investments have been piecemeal and have not yielded the desired systemic impact. Similar inertia prevails in almost all countries: the status quo is too comfortable, and the ruling classes benefit from business as usual. Added to that is the populism of deniers.Given the prevailing dogma in both the rich and poor countries, it is unlikely that <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/half-full/A-carbon-neutral-Nepal-is-possible-clean-Nepal,1064">carbon</a> curve will become less steep as hoped for in the IPCC Report. Nepal’s Prime Minister K P Oli, while launching the fist electric buses in Kathmandu last week, announced a National Action Plan for Electric Mobility under which <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/20-electric-by-2020/">20% of public transport will be battery operated by 2020</a>.This proposition, theoretically, can offset some emission and fuel cost, but without clear thought-through investment strategy,<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=18118#.W9vjX9UzbIU"> petroleum import</a> will not fall. Since 2000, import of petroleum products has increased by more than three times.  Weaning the economy towards renewables needs statesmanship and vision – both of which our rulers lack.Imported electric vehicles will not build backward linkages in the economy, and the trade deficit will continue to grow. Without a fundamental reorientation of its economy towards a more self-reliant clean energy supply, and a stronger commitment to protecting ecosystems, Nepal will not meet decarbonisation targets.Globally, bringing carbon emissions to zero in the next 30 years will need incentives on investments globally and within individual countries which promote social equity, protect nature, improve governance and prioritise a low carbon lifestyle.Ajaya Dixit is Executive Director of Kathmandu based ISET-Nepal. His monthly column Climate for Change in Nepali Times deals with the impact of global warming in Nepal.

Decarbonise now

India and Pakistan are twins separated at birth. Tensions between them have been at a hair trigger ever since independence and has erupted into full scale conflict at least four times in the past 80 years.
The 22 April terrorist attack in Kashmir that killed 25 Indian tourists and a Nepali citizen, threatens to escalate tension between the two nuclear-armed nations. India has squarely blamed Pakistan for the attacks, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has given his military “operational freedom” to respond. Pakistan has said it has credible intelligence of an Indian military strike and its officials have promised a “full spectrum” response — a code for a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/thinking-the-thinkable">nuclear retaliation</a>.
For Nepal, the killing of its national in the Pahalgam attack comes as another stark reminder that in conflicts from Afghanistan to Iraq, from <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/how-to-agree-an-armistice-in-ukraine">Ukraine</a> to Israel, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/10-nepalis-from-one-town-fighting-in-ukraine">Nepalis are getting caught in the crossfire</a>. The last time full-scale fighting broke out between <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/peacemongers-at-india-pakistan-border">India and Pakistan</a> on Kargil in 1999, at least 22<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/india-s-trial-by-fire-for-soldiers-from-nepal?%27%5C%22="> Nepalis fighting for the Indian Army</a> were killed in action.
Three of Nepal’s immediate neighbours (China, India, Pakistan) have nuclear weapons, and they do not have good relations. With China supplying weapons, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/war-and-warming">missile technology</a> and other support to Pakistan, this triangular friction could set off a regional conflagration.&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00573-0" target="_blank">Research at Rutgers University</a> has calculated that even a week-long tactical nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan would throw up so much smoke and debris into the atmosphere that it would block out the sun for years, and lead to a collapse of the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/grow-nourish-sustain-together-world-food-day">global food system</a>. This does not take into account the radioactive fallout that prevailing winds would blow up to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lives-on-the-line-in-the-himalaya">the Himalaya</a>, contaminating glaciers that are the sources of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/saving-what-is-left-of-himalayan-rivers">Asia’s main rivers</a>.
The impact of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/climate-breakdown-linked-to-thame-flood">climate breakdown </a>on High Asia was already ringing alarm bells about its <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/himalayan-icecap-melting-faster-than-thought">shrinking ice cap</a> reducing the dry season flow of water downstream. Water was going to be the next strategic commodity, geopolitical experts warned, and the next wars in Asia would be over water.
That water war is already happening. India retaliated to the Kashmir attack by suspending the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/24/world/asia/india-pakistan-indus-waters-treaty.html" target="_blank">Indus Waters Treaty</a> of 1960 mediated by the World Bank that has withstood at least three wars between India and Pakistan. The treaty gives India control over the three eastern tributaries of the Indus (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beas_River" target="_blank">Beas</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ravi_River" target="_blank">Ravi</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sutlej" target="_blank">Sutlej</a>), while Pakistan got water from the Indus and two of its western tributaries (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indus_River" target="_blank">Indus</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chenab_River" target="_blank">Chenab</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jhelum_River" target="_blank">Jhelum</a>.
Pakistan was assured of 70% of the annual flow, and India could use a reasonable amount of water for<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=15231"> irrigation and hydropower</a>. &nbsp;Within days of its threat, India stopped water flowing down to Pakistan from the Chenab river and is reportedly preparing to do the same on the Jhelum.
The sabre-rattling has reached a crescendo. Besides threats and counter-threats there are also symbolic drills, with the Indian Air Force practicing landing on an expressway in Uttar Pradesh by its Rafale, Su-30 and Jaguar fighter jets to demonstrate ‘operational readiness’. In response Pakistan test-fired its Abdali ballistic missile that can carry a nuclear warhead and has a range of 450km.&nbsp;
The danger is that with ultra-nationalist rhetoric and the beating the war drums by both sides, India’s government and Pakistan’s military may have to ‘do something’ to appease domestic public opinion. But any tactical strike, an artillery exchange, or territorial incursion could quickly escalate out of control.
Expecting an Indian retaliation for the Pahalgam killings, Pakistan is using<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/interfaith-collaboration-for-nuclear-disarmament"> nuclear deterrence </a>and warning of “catastrophic consequences”. The two neighbours came close to a nuclear exchange in 2019 after an attack on the Indian military in Kashmir, and prompt international intervention led by the United States cooled tensions.&nbsp;
This time, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/trump-shock-wave-hits-nepal">Trump administration</a> is too distracted and not as engaged. Pakistan has denied it was responsible for the terrorist attack and called on Washington to stop a possible Indian retaliation. India and Pakistan have stopped overflights by each other’s airlines, and some international carriers have even stopped flying over Pakistan fearing an air war.
Washington, Beijing, the UN and the EU have all urged restraint. Iran, which has good relations with both India and Pakistan has sent its foreign minister to urge both countries not to go into a tit-for-tat war. Iran has its own nuclear flashpoint to worry about with tensions in Israel, &nbsp;Yemen and Syria.
India and Pakistan both share similar problems of joblessness, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/why-nepal-s-poverty-rate-is-stuck">poverty </a>and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/climate-change-new-threat-to-nepal-s-rhinos">environmental threats</a>. Neither side needs the threat of a senseless war, and we in the neighbourhood do not need it either.&nbsp;
Kunda Dixit
This Editorial is brought to you by <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/" target="_blank">Nepali Times</a>, in collaboration with <a href="https://inpsjapan.com/en/" target="_blank">INPS Japan</a> and <a href="https://sgi-peace.org/" target="_blank">Soka Gakkai International</a>, in consultative status with UN ECOSOC.

Nukes in the neighbourhood

The streets of Patan are alive this month with lavender jacaranda trees under rain-washed skies as <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/the-red-god-rises-again-in-patan">the chariot of Rato Matsyendranath</a> is pulled across town. This is the festival of the rain god, and inevitably the heavens opened up and pre-monsoon showers pelted the chariot as it started being pulled in Pulchok last week. Thousands of devotees, onlookers and the chariot procession organisers thronged the streets on the first day last week. The rhythmic cymbals and drums exuded a vibrant energy as the enormous four wheels turned and the chariot lurched.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025051007050_81df97744db16f732a419dc1f1579d235ce3df37642b078f50b83bd4bd026688.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2025051007050_81df97744db16f732a419dc1f1579d235ce3df37642b078f50b83bd4bd026688" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1503" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  The<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/Red-rain-god,3141"> red rain god</a> has Hindu and Buddhist antecedents, alternatively called Bungadya and<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/kathmandu-s-gravity-defying-chariot-festival"> Karunamaya</a> — reflecting Kathmandu Valley’s syncretic mixture of the two religions.&nbsp; “Bungadya is a profoundly <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/12-full-opinion/marketing-the-intangible">intangible form of heritage</a>,” explains heritage expert Monalisa Maharjan. “It embodies traditional knowledge,<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/reviving-nepal-s-craft"> artisanal skills passed down through generations</a>. Local communities and specific families have specified roles in being custodians of the heritage, ensuring their survival over the centuries.” There are many legends and stories about this annual tradition. Lichhavi king Narendra Dev is supposed to have brought Rato Matsyendranath from Assam to Kathmandu Valley to convince Guru Gorakhnath to lift a spell that created a two-year drought in Kathmandu.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250510050520_347a9a398f8a9abc4a7fb4e2774fde8264cccbdce8bdab23851ab3f0e73c3e8a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20250510050520_347a9a398f8a9abc4a7fb4e2774fde8264cccbdce8bdab23851ab3f0e73c3e8a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1503" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  Matsyendranath was Gorakhnath’s mentor, and upon seeing him, the serpents were released, unleashing the rains. The chariot festival honours the return of this life-giving rain. The deity is seen as an icon for thriving agriculture, t<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon">he arrival of monsoon</a> showers, and the welfare of the community. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-reign-of-the-god-of-rain">The reign of the god of rain</a>, Vidhu Prakash Kayastha Till this day, the Rato Matsyendranath festival is no ordinary celebration. Patan does not sleep for a month as the chariot is pulled through various neighbourhoods. It unfolds at a state level with the president (formerly the king) attending the climax of the Bhoto Jatra in Jawalakhel later this month.&nbsp; The intergenerational transmission of tradition is unique in the world, and the reason the festival is one of the most vibrant cultural expressions that thrives despite inroads of modernity. The other unique aspect is that it is a transnational festival, binding Patan with Guwahati in the Indian state of Assam.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025051005058_8bc685ada13045d863b28e3eed91c931da2b510714586af6fd7eb5d1e298a24a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="2025051005058_8bc685ada13045d863b28e3eed91c931da2b510714586af6fd7eb5d1e298a24a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1503" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  “Unlike Nepal, where the deity commands grandeur and devotion, many in Assam are unaware of Rato Matsyendranath,” says Khagen Sharma of Gauhati University, which convened <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-assam-connection-revived">a symposium in February in Guwahati on the rain god</a>. Attending was a delegation led by Lalitpur Mayor Chiribabu Maharjan, organisers of the festival, and builders of the chariot. After the symposium, a committee was formed to explore and revive the tradition in Assam as well. Although the team had planned to visit Nepal this month, logistical challenges delayed the trip. Still, there are plans to build a Guru Matsyendranath statue in Assam to reestablish regular worship practices in the Guwahati shrine.&nbsp; The vines used to build the chariot in Patan are sourced from the jungles of Assam. But Sharma notes that in recent years unclear regulations have blocked the official import of the vines, although they are still brought to Nepal informally. The <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/makers-of-machhindranath,2204">chariot making</a> has also had a taste of modernisation in recent times. In the past, even a single nail or piece of steel was avoided. But over time, the wooden structure, particularly the shaft between the wheels, has been replaced with bronze. When that too proved unstable, metal clamps were introduced, which have become a pragmatic compromise.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250510050524_b2a819a5791612f14c81d30fc393dbd3f99f0c64b90a9110e8b0855d944bfa93.jpg" data-media-id="editor_12" data-image-id="20250510050524_b2a819a5791612f14c81d30fc393dbd3f99f0c64b90a9110e8b0855d944bfa93" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="998" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  Another welcome change is the focus on safety. Builders climbing the chariot’s tower now wear harnesses and there are efforts in crowd control. The most visible change in recent years has been the involvement of Patan’s enthusiastic youth in the festival — the tradition is now passing to a new generation. Says Matsyendranath expert Vidhu Kayastha: “There is more energy, the young people in red t-shirts this year were very organised, these modern touches aren’t diluting our culture, they’re keeping it alive in new forms.” He adds, “We are <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/searching-for-a-homeland-away-from-home">reconnecting with our roots</a>, we have more resources, more awareness than ever before. We must not be swept away by western values that may not serve us, and in some ways, cause more harm than good. We must revive our own culture.”&nbsp;

Divine chariot

In 2025, two seemingly disconnected acts of violence shattered the illusion of stability in the region. In March, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/16f7f947-1e96-4206-9844-891378adc683" target="_blank">militants hijacked a passenger train</a> near the Bolan Pass in Balochistan, executing soldiers in cold blood. A month later, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/world/asia/kashmir-terrorist-attack.html" target="_blank">gunmen in Kashmir’s</a> Pahalgam Valley massacred tourists. 
In both Islamabad and New Delhi, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/4/25/were-cursed-kashmiris-under-attack-across-india-after-pahalgam-killings" target="_blank">the reaction was reflexive:</a> condemn the violence, <a href="https://www.economist.com/asia/2025/04/22/india-and-pakistan-could-come-to-blows-over-kashmir" target="_blank">blame external enemies</a>, declare the situation contained. But South Asia’s leaders are not fighting terrorists alone. They are fighting the consequences of their own betrayals.
Across <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26272897" target="_blank">Balochistan</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-south-asia-11693674" target="_blank">Kashmir</a>, <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-asia/india/346-finding-way-out-festering-conflict-indias-manipur" target="_blank">Manipur</a>, and beyond, decades of <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/projects/enforced-disappearance-in-south-asia/" target="_blank">enforced disappearances</a>, broken promises, and brute militarisation have hollowed out the social contracts meant to hold these nations together. The grievances that drove rebellions from the 1940s through the 1990s – demands for dignity, recognition, and political agency – were never meaningfully addressed. They were buried beneath asphalt and propaganda, paved over by development projects and security checkpoints.
States may claim victory. But their victories are mirages, dissolving the moment anyone looks too closely. South Asia’s unfinished wars are not relics of a violent past. They are live ammunition, loaded into the future.
<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/24/he-only-wanted-revenge-the-bloody-insurgency-in-balochistan-gaining-lethal-momentum" target="_blank">Balochistan</a> has been at war with Pakistan for most of its modern history. Rich in gas, minerals, and coastline, the province has been plundered for decades under the language of national development. 
Projects like the <a href="https://eastasiaforum.org/2020/11/26/pakistans-three-evils-cpec-and-good-governance/" target="_blank">China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)</a> promise progress but deliver exclusion: minerals are mined, ports are secured, but Baloch homes are raided. 
The insurgency endures not because of foreign conspiracies, as Islamabad endlessly insists, but because the Pakistani state remains incapable of seeing its <a href="https://thebalochistanpost.net/2025/01/enforced-disappearances-in-balochistan-in-december-2024-tbp-report/" target="_blank">Baloch citizens</a> as anything other than a security problem to be managed.
In <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/ranisingh/2016/07/12/kashmir-in-the-worlds-most-militarized-zone-violence-after-years-of-comparative-calm/" target="_blank">Kashmir</a>, the Indian government claims to have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/08/world/asia/kashmir-village-defense-committees.html" target="_blank">“normalised” the valley</a> after revoking its autonomy in 2019. It <a href="https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-between-india-and-pakistan" target="_blank">looks a lot like occupation</a>. Soldiers outnumber local leaders, dissent is criminalised, internet shutdowns suffocate public life. Tourism campaigns and investment summits cannot erase a generation raised under curfew and surveillance.
<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-66260730" target="_blank">Manipur’s descent into ethnic bloodshed</a> in 2023 exposed another fault line Delhi prefers to ignore. Long-simmering tensions between the Meitei and Kuki communities erupted into violence that shattered any illusions of northeastern integration. The central government’s delayed, politicised response made clear what many Manipuris had always suspected: they are citizens of India only when convenient.
Even the <a href="https://msf.org.au/rohingya-worlds-largest-stateless-population" target="_blank">Rohingya, stateless and exiled from Myanmar</a>, find themselves entangled in South Asia’s ethnonationalist calculus. Fleeing genocide, they are criminalised anew in Bangladesh and India – trapped between the countries that reject them and the memories that refuse to let them go.
South Asia’s states have excelled at suppressing rebellion. But failed at extinguishing the reasons rebellions rise in the first place. And the wars South Asia tries to forget at home have found new life abroad.
Across <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-17/modis-indian-government-accused-of-spying-silencing-critics/103974414" target="_blank">Canada, Australia, Britain, and the United States</a>, diasporic communities have become memory-keepers and, increasingly, <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/khalistan-supporters-hold-protest-outside-indian-consulate-in-vancouver-123092600087_1.html" target="_blank">the agitators</a> for the struggles their home states would rather erase.
Khalistan flags fly outside Indian consulates in Vancouver and <a href="https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/punjab/perturbed-over-waving-of-khalistani-flags-at-an-event-in-melbourne-india-warns-australia-of-khalistan-separatists-and-their-links-with-terror-groups-458320/" target="_blank">Melbourne</a>. Tamil activists march through London, demanding accountability for the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/19/grim-reminder-sri-lankas-tamils-mark-15-years-since-end-of-civil-war" target="_blank">massacres in Mullivaikkal</a>. Kashmiri protests in Washington and New York refuse to let India’s crackdown slip into diplomatic amnesia.
For host countries, these movements pose uncomfortable questions. Freedom of expression collides with fears of extremism. Clashes erupt between communities carrying wounds that their new homelands.
Meanwhile, South Asian states pursue their adversaries across borders. India faces allegations of <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/canada-says-india-home-minister-ordered-campaign-against-sikh-activist-rcna177972" target="_blank">targeting Sikh activists for assassination in Canada</a> and the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/10/27/g-s1-29561/sikh-separatist-assassination-india" target="_blank">United States</a>. Pakistan continues to court Kashmiri separatists abroad while crushing Baloch dissent at home. <a href="https://apnews.com/article/sri-lanka-tamils-civil-war-dead-5b372b0bba567837c5a4d94250040e7d" target="_blank">Sri Lanka</a> lobbies furiously to brand Tamil diaspora organisations as fronts for terrorism, even as it stonewalls investigations into its own wartime atrocities.
The old insurgencies have not been defeated. They have been globalised. South Asia’s governments have long mistaken silence for stability.
In Punjab, India broke the back of the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/06/india/india-canada-sikh-khalistan-analysis-intl-hnk/index.html" target="_blank">Khalistan insurgency</a> through brute force. The fields grew green again, the trains ran on time. But the wounds were never closed, the <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/why-is-indias-khalistan-separatist-movement-on-the-rise/a-65081729" target="_blank">movement’s heart beats</a> not in Amritsar but in Brampton and Surrey.
In Sri Lanka, the <a href="https://www.academia.edu/4738983/The_Man_Who_Destroyed_Eelam" target="_blank">military crushed the Tamil Tigers</a> with <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2011/01/17/death-of-the-tiger" target="_blank">overwhelming brutality in 2009</a>. <a href="https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3264148/we-want-our-children-back-sri-lankan-families-still-demanding-justice-their-missing-loved-ones" target="_blank">Tamil families still search for their missing</a>, still mourn their dead – and still organise across the diaspora for justice that remains undelivered.
In Kashmir, Delhi boasts of new <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/2/4/kashmir-is-bleeding-its-economy" target="_blank">highways and investment corridors</a>, showcasing the region as a trophy of unity. But when the visitors leave and the cameras are packed away, <a href="https://harvardlawreview.org/print/vol-134/from-domicile-to-dominion-indias-settler-colonial-agenda-in-kashmir/" target="_blank">the checkpoints, the raids, and the quiet despair remain.</a>
Victory parades fade. Grievance endures. Suppressing insurgency may end battles. It does not end the ideas that fueled them. In a region where <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/23/world/asia/kashmir-attack-india-pakistan.html" target="_blank">history is rarely past</a>, and memory is rarely voluntary, states that rule through repression are only ever buying time. And often, not very much.
South Asia’s unfinished wars are not accidents. They are the inevitable consequences of states that confuse conquest with consent, and erasure with reconciliation. They cannot legislate memory out of existence.
Every <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c15qyyzz89lo" target="_blank">disappeared son in Balochistan</a>, every <a href="https://medium.com/the-wvoice/the-half-widows-in-kashmir-fef80c6b88e9" target="_blank">half-widow in Kashmir</a>, every <a href="https://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/what-we-do/focus/rohingya-refugee-crisis" target="_blank">refugee child born stateless in a Rohingya camp</a> carries forward the memory of betrayal – a memory that outlives soldiers, politicians, and peace accords alike.
The region’s future will not be decided by GDP figures or infrastructure projects alone. It will be decided by whether its governments can summon the political courage to face the truths they have long suppressed – or whether they will continue down a path <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-is-using-the-g20-summit-to-further-its-settler-colonial-ambitions-in-kashmir-205166" target="_blank">where forgetting is demanded</a>, and rebellion becomes inevitable.
Shyam Tekwani is a professor at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Hawaii. This <a href="https://dkiapcss.edu/nexus_articles/ghosts-at-the-border-south-asias-unfinished-wars/" target="_blank">article</a> was originally published on <a href="https://dkiapcss.edu/security-nexus/" target="_blank">DKI APCSS Security Nexus.</a> The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of DKI APCSS, the Department of Defense, or the US Government. The appearance of external hyperlinks does not constitute endorsement by the United States Department of Defense (DoD) of the linked websites, or the information, products, or services contained therein. DoD does not exercise any editorial, security, or other control over the information you may find at these sites.

Balochistan to Kashmir

Most Nepalis thought they had seen the last of it after <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/11-56-25-april-2015-wkc9q2an">the 25 April 7.8 magnitude </a>earthquake ten years ago. But the Himalaya had more surprises in store. On 12 May, another 7.3 magnitude tremor that some said was an aftershock, but was strong enough to itself be a major earthquake, struck Dolakha.&nbsp; Not many people had heard of Singati till then — a cluster of houses by the Tama Kosi River along a narrow gorge that is the roadhead to Rolwaling Valley.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_57b6e316656851f71eca56ca6f98d9bbcc820c1a00d62af3c990725b4361244d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250508110520_57b6e316656851f71eca56ca6f98d9bbcc820c1a00d62af3c990725b4361244d" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1500" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_016534fb2b6a79957402281cda768efb83a146786377e39e11df3e251d37159e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20250508110520_016534fb2b6a79957402281cda768efb83a146786377e39e11df3e251d37159e" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>  It was here that dozens were killed on 25 April in the first earthquake. Hundreds of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Singati-rising-from-rubble-rebuilding,3703">Singati survivors</a> had lined up for food and relief supplies in the morning of 12 May when the second earthquake triggered a rock slide that buried a nearby camp. At least 50 people were killed. &nbsp; Three hours later, a US Marine Corps UH-1Y Venom helicopter landed in a nearby cornfield to pick up the wounded, and flew off. The aircraft lost contact with air traffic control in Kathmandu and its wreckage was located high on Kalinchok four days later. Six American servicemen, two Nepal Army soldiers, and five wounded civilians from Singati were killed. Today, Singati bears little physical scar of the multiple tragedies that struck the town ten years ago. Most <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/bungamati-builds-back">houses have been rebuilt</a> as urban-style concrete structures, and Singati has become an economic hub on the road leading up to several hydropower plants and a<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/off-the-beaten-trek-in-nepal"> popular trekking destination</a>.&nbsp; The town looks less like a village and more like a suburb of the Dolakha district headquarter of Charikot, 47km away.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_196f341d1df1403ba133e5dfeb837eec20d7cbcb4c8c56b17cc5598810de5df2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20250508110520_196f341d1df1403ba133e5dfeb837eec20d7cbcb4c8c56b17cc5598810de5df2" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110524_ae66c4a92430f67db51b5e11e017059eedfbac4cb18c8e073f2a50cca1fe904e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20250508110524_ae66c4a92430f67db51b5e11e017059eedfbac4cb18c8e073f2a50cca1fe904e" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>  “The demand for construction material, cement, iron rods and bricks peaked after the earthquakes,” says Suresh Khadka, who owns a hardware business here and now supplies material to the 456MW Upper Tama Kosi hydropower project that is undergoing repairs after it was damaged by a landslide last year. The demand for cement boomed since most residents believe, not necessarily correctly, that <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/in-a-disastrous-state">cement houses are safer</a>. Although Khadka did well selling construction material after the earthquake, he worries that most new structures do not follow seismic-resistant building codes.&nbsp; The construction boom financed by bank loans has in turn forced many from Singati to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/making-overseas-migration-better">migrate overseas for work</a> so they can service their debt.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110524_50caa4530bd5ff9120cf7ab70a62173846d337ef448ff8bac339f3faa375a9e2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250508110524_50caa4530bd5ff9120cf7ab70a62173846d337ef448ff8bac339f3faa375a9e2" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> <figcaption>Suresh Khadka</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_ef8b7d3993fc3b5df852bbf952feb3fbabc96d6883b0d5eb74ee5c60f4123b83.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="20250508110520_ef8b7d3993fc3b5df852bbf952feb3fbabc96d6883b0d5eb74ee5c60f4123b83" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> <figcaption>Phu Doma Sherpa (right)</figcaption> </figure>  “My family had no choice but to borrow money to rebuild our home since the government compensation was not enough, and ten years later we are still paying off the loan,” says Phu Doma Sherpa, 60. Because of the shortage of qualified masons and proper seismic engineering, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/structural-problems">many of the buildings are of questionable building standards </a>and the traditional architecture has been abandoned, admits Kul Bahadur Budathoki, deputy chair of the municipality. “But these buildings were more expensive than what the government grants could cover, many people here are heavily in debt and the men have <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/every-day-is-closer-to-pay-day">migrated to the Gulf to pay their loans</a>,” Budathoki says.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_32f89e97b7e757fc9286c0bbb671f48ea8d4468e9634fa646d7247c650ad8480.jpg" data-media-id="editor_14" data-image-id="20250508110520_32f89e97b7e757fc9286c0bbb671f48ea8d4468e9634fa646d7247c650ad8480" data-rendition-name="original" width="1501" height="1079" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> <figcaption>Kul Bahadur Budathoki</figcaption> </figure>  Singati is in a multi-hazard zone. The <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Singati,3091">12 May 2015 earthquake </a>could have led to the collapse of Nepal’s largest glacial lake, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/stairway-to-heaven">Tso Rolpa</a>, upstream. Due to global warming, the glacier has turned into an expanding lake 3.5km long, and its collapse would have unleashed a catastrophic Himalayan tsunami down the Tama Kosi Valley, with Singati directly in its path. Singati has literally risen from the ashes of 2015, with its residents beginning to recover from the trauma and financial toll. But it is not out of danger as <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/climate-breakdown-linked-to-thame-flood">climate breakdown </a>magnifies the risk from future earthquakes.

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Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village