Nepal is graduating to become a developing country on 24 November 2026 after half-century in the Least Developed Country (LDC) category. By 2030, the country hopes to transition to middle-income status.&nbsp; Everone from Prime Minister K P Oli have boasted that this is a matter of national pride, and will have a multiplier impact on trade and economy.&nbsp; But will it make any difference to the average Nepali? Not unless improved governance <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/why-invest-in-nepal">spurs investment and creates jobs</a>.&nbsp; Countries need to meet at least two of the three criteria in two consecutive triennial reviews to be eligible for graduation from LDC. Nepal has consistently met the thresholds for the Human Assets Index (HAI) and the Economic and Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) in 2015, 2018, and 2021. But Nepal was recommended for graduation before meeting the per capita <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-great-income-divide">Gross National Income (GNI)</a> threshold of $1,306. “A major implication of LDC graduation is the loss of preferential market access available through Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) and other arrangements,” explains economist Sameer Khatiwada. “But over two-thirds of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-doesnt-produce-its-2-biggest-export-items">Nepal’s exports</a> are to India, and the preferential market access to India is through a bilateral trade agreement. This has nothing to do with our LDC status.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250815060832_f5eabe7628a8cdf84f33b25d7cef3c4dc8913a26d8e5b253ea52a36e176b8a85.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20250815060832_f5eabe7628a8cdf84f33b25d7cef3c4dc8913a26d8e5b253ea52a36e176b8a85" data-rendition-name="original" width="640" height="470" loading="lazy" alt="LDC graduation "> </figure>  Furthermore, a provision under the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) allows Nepal to export to India duty-free if the items are at least 30% value-added. Nepali traders take advantage of this by re-exporting edible oils without meeting that requirement, falsely boosting Nepal’s exports.“ Following graduation from LDC, the value addition threshold might increase to 40%,” says Kalpana Khanal of the Policy Research Institute. “This is supposed to work to our advantage, because on paper value addition inherently means <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/staying-home-to-create-jobs">job creation at home</a>.” But Nepal’s exports to other major destinations will face <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-and-the-us-india-tariff-tiff">tariff increases</a> with the graduation. A South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics and Environment (SWATEE) study shows that while tariff increase in the US market is relatively low (see page 5) it is considerably higher in Europe. The International Trade Centre (ITC) in a 2022 study also estimated that graduation could result in a 4.3% decline in Nepal’s projected exports, but this is excluding the impact of changes in ‘rules of origin’ provisions in preference-granting countries such as the UK and Europe.&nbsp; Nepal’s top export to these preference-granting countries is <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=1482">carpets</a>, and will not be impacted, but other items such as textiles and apparel will be heavily affected due to higher cost of production. The impact will felt mostly by small and medium enterprises which represent the largest share of exports to LDC-specific preference-granting countries. As for the service exports, Nepal never really made use of the World Trade Organization’s LDC services waiver anyway, hence the effect will be minimal, if any. There is also concern about Nepal’s graduation at a time when the global economy is topsy-turvy, amidst <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-point-in-us-india-relations">tariff wars and conflicts</a>. This affects Nepalis abroad directly and may impact <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/more-remittance-more-than-remittance">remittances </a>which hit $11 billion in 2024. In comparison, Nepal only received $350 million in foreign loans and grants last year.&nbsp; Tourism arrivals have finally reached pre-pandemic levels, but bad publicity about pollution, poor infrastructure and bureaucratic hurdles hinder further growth. Manufacturing continues to struggle, while hydropower and the IT sector have taken off.&nbsp; “Look at data -- <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/tourism-needs-a-new-push">tourism arrivals</a> are up, spending is up, IT exports are up, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/why-nepal-needs-to-restore-ev-tax-subsidy">EV sales </a>are up, Europe still needs 85-90 million skilled workers. We are sitting on $16 billion in cash reserves, our balance of payment, foreign exchange reserve, tax to GDP ratio, credit flow are all positive, we have to build on these factors,” says Sujeev Shakya of the Nepal Economic Forum. He adds: “Our mindset creates negativity to promote rent-seeking behaviour, but this cynicism will go away after 2026 with LDC graduation. We must deal with data, look at trends, and projects which will bring in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/from-the-nepali-press/why-there-is-no-foreign-investment-in-nepal">international investments</a>.” Khanal agrees that investment is not dependent on<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/backside/Nepal-not-the-least-developed-country,306"> LDC status</a>. The factors that that affect investment are policy stability, a strong legal framework, market potential and ease of doing business. She adds, “That is where our focus needs to be, and we need to retain <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/diaspora-diaries/migrant-worker-returns-to-create-work-at-home?fbclid=IwAR09xJfsClCwn8uRVAmz28CU658vdKpuyDwB_b1sNlvKtAFFnSldnA0JS2g">Nepalis with jobs at home</a> for our sustained growth.” After 2026, financing support from donors and aid agencies could be affected and Nepal will no longer be able to access Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) to adapt to the impacts of climate change. But the Global Environment Fund and Green Climate Fund will still be available.“ LDC status does not determine bilateral development aid, that is usually driven by broader <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/looking-beyond-two-boulders">geopolitical considerations</a>,” says Sameer Khatiwada. “The World Bank and Asian Development Bank, which provide concessional loans to Nepal, it is determined mainly by per capita income, not LDC status.” &nbsp;However, Nepal may lose some concessional terms for loans. Nepal is currently a lower-middle-income country as per the World Bank in the bracket for GNI between $1,036 and $4,045. The country is already receiving more loans than grants and in July the World Bank increased its interest rate on loans by 100% from 0.75 to 1.5%. “All this means that the impact of LDC graduation for Nepal might not be as earth-shattering as some tend to think. Countries that have recently graduated, such as Botswana and the Maldives, have shows that graduation is just a step in a country’s development path,” says Khatiwada. Sujeev Shakya also sees the glass as half full, explaining that LDC graduation is just a stepping stone if Nepal has the right policies in place. He adds, “Nepal’s biggest advantage is our<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/investing-in-people"> working age population</a> and we have investments coming in. These aided by how adaptive we are as a society are the very foundations on which Nepal will grow.”

Sonia Awale

original

674x448

610x380

500x500

400x266

400x240

400x203

301x200

1250x600

1084x550

thumbnail

viewImage

Not poor, but not rich

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111144/636b85559c7e80680e0677e9jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="800" height="534"/>While Western countries were busy with their own vaccination campaigns, Russia has filled the leadership vacuum in developing countries. This  trickle of news flies under the media radar.Argentina has become the first country in South America to produce Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine. The first shipment of the shots is promised to Peru by May.Some 11,000 doses of the Russian jab has reached North Macedonia, while Tunisia has begun to administer 30,000 doses, and 1.7 million more are promised to Bolivia by May.The African Union has received an offer of 300 million doses from Russia, which has already signed agreements to produce tens of millions of doses in China, Brazil, Iran and Serbia.While we weren’t looking, Sputnik V has become the cornerstone of pandemic response for the developing world. In doing so, Russia has filled the leadership gap in Asia, Africa and South America left by western countries busy with their own vaccination drives.But at heart, Sputnik V is a calculated campaign to increase the Kremlin’s power and influence through a global scientific, diplomatic, and media influence operation.Far from the authoritarian, bellicose, annexationist Moscow that poisons its domestic political opponents and interferes in its rivals’ elections, the jab casts Russia in the role of scientific superpower and pandemic saviour.Sputnik V is the image of Russia the Kremlin wants to project and indeed offers a unique chance to launder the country’ reputation.Russian capabilities align elegantly with the world’s pandemic needs. As developing countries tried and failed to secure enough vaccine supplies through Western mechanisms, headlines worldwide hail Russia as the partner that really comes through when it counts.Russia’s official mouthpieces minutely cover each new country that approves Sputnik V for use, while the Russian Direct Investment Fund, the Kremlin agency that bankrolled Sputnik V s development, trumpets Russia’s achievement not just in finding a vaccine first, but also in making it widely available.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111144/636b85589c7e80680e0677eajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="578">Sputnik V’s <a href="https://twitter.com/sputnikvaccine" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Twitter</a> feed pumps out messages once or twice an hour — ‘A planeload of vaccines lands in Armenia!’ — or retweets good news from partner countries. The Mexican Health Ministry claims that Sputnik V is the only vaccine with a 0% chance of producing serious adverse side effects.What Russia can no longer achieve with its declining military strength, Flemming Splidsboel Hansen at the Danish Institute for International Studies writes, it now seeks through cognitive and digital means.First in line for the Russian jab have been Moscow’s long-time allies. “The vaccines underline the anti-Western bloc’s scientific prowess. Ideology demands it be portrayed as greater than the West’s,” says Félix Arellano, a professor of international relations at the Universidad Central de Venezuela in Caracas.He adds: “Russia’s posture, in offering up highly effective vaccines at a low price for countries like Venezuela, is media-driven. It’s how Russia and its allies seek to show that authoritarian governments can also grow in the scientific realm, that it’s possible to grow without democracy.”Argentina, under a proto-socialist government, was the first to send a team to Moscow to translate Sputnik V’s technical documentation to Spanish and set up its own production facilities.Other countries soon followed suit, including Mexico, Brazil, Bolivia, and even US allies like Peru, Chile, and Colombia. The last three were the final seal of approval on an operation that is succeeding largely thanks to the West’s navel-gazing inaction.“At this point the discussion, at least in Peru, grants the need to negotiate to secure whatever vaccine is on offer,” explains Oscar Vidarte, a professor of international relations at the Pontificia Universidad Católica de Perú in Lima.For Colombia, buying into Sputnik V serves two purposes, immunising a vulnerable population and rebuilding bilateral links with Moscow. “We’re Washington’s key ally in the region,” says Mauricio Jaramillo, who teaches international relations at the Universidad del Rosario in Bogotá, “but the U.S. is not trying to leverage vaccines to project its power or earn prestige.”The West hasn’t so much lost this fight as forfeited it. The World Health Organization (WHO) <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/glimmers-of-hope-for-nepal-on-vaccine/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">COVAX initiative</a> amounts to a clearinghouse for the West’s leftovers.The Biden administration has pledged some $4 billion to COVAX, but the WHO’s director-general, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, acknowledges that ‘when there are no vaccines to buy, money is irrelevant.’It is not just access to ample supply that is tilting the field in Moscow’s favour, it is how the Russians approach supply agreements, making sure to portray deals not as charity, but as partnerships among equals, say experts.Meanwhile, Sputnik V’s successes keep mounting. The European Union’s shambolic vaccine roll-out has brought even some member countries like Slovakia, Hungary, Greece, and the Czech Republic knocking on Moscow’s door. Each has had to negotiate unilaterally for its share.Italy and Spain are now considering doing the same, and the European Medicines Agency has had no choice but to formally consider certifying the Russian vaccine, softening its line in the wake of Crimea and Navalny.To be sure, liberal democracy need not fear for its life from the Russian vaccine. But the West has left a huge leadership vacuum at a moment of acute crisis that Russia is determined to exploit.Western democracies, and particularly the United States, have lost too many opportunities to the pandemic — not least among them the chance to back their allies, firm up their influence and position themselves as the go-to model for how to manage a crisis that, many scientists fear, could be repeated sooner than many realise.Valentine Lares is a journalist and managing editor of Armando.info, an investigative journalism site. This <a href="http://www.ipsnews.net/2021/05/russias-sputnik-diplomacy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">article</a> was originally published in community blog <a href="https://www.persuasion.community/p/sputnik-diplomacy?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxMjQ2NTkyNiwicG9zdF9pZCI6MzU0Nzk2NzEsIl8iOiJsQldzViIsImlhdCI6MTYxOTc5MzMxOSwiZXhwIjoxNjE5Nzk2OTE5LCJpc3MiOiJwdWItNjE1NzkiLCJzdWIiOiJwb3N0LXJlYWN0aW9uIn0.GJMrfTqUglKDoYoOsBLqkMKNIkoSVz0PS42EBCmQpSI">Persuasion</a> and <a href="http://www.ipsnews.net/2021/05/russias-sputnik-diplomacy/">Inter Press Service.</a>Nepal is in talks to procure 8 million doses of Sputnik V vaccine. Russia has offered an international competitive price of $19.90 per two shots. The jab received emergency use permit in Nepal back in April and has over 90% efficacy.In the region, India and Philippines have started inoculating its populations with the Russian jab. Bangladesh has also entered an agreement to domestically produce the vaccine.

Vaccine geo-politics and Sputnik-V

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131124/636ced6f9c7e80680e09adc6jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="800" height="534"/>While Western countries were busy with their own vaccination campaigns, Russia has filled the leadership vacuum in developing countries. This  trickle of news flies under the media radar.Argentina has become the first country in South America to produce Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine. The first shipment of the shots is promised to Peru by May.Some 11,000 doses of the Russian jab has reached North Macedonia, while Tunisia has begun to administer 30,000 doses, and 1.7 million more are promised to Bolivia by May.The African Union has received an offer of 300 million doses from Russia, which has already signed agreements to produce tens of millions of doses in China, Brazil, Iran and Serbia.While we weren’t looking, Sputnik V has become the cornerstone of pandemic response for the developing world. In doing so, Russia has filled the leadership gap in Asia, Africa and South America left by western countries busy with their own vaccination drives.But at heart, Sputnik V is a calculated campaign to increase the Kremlin’s power and influence through a global scientific, diplomatic, and media influence operation.Far from the authoritarian, bellicose, annexationist Moscow that poisons its domestic political opponents and interferes in its rivals’ elections, the jab casts Russia in the role of scientific superpower and pandemic saviour.Sputnik V is the image of Russia the Kremlin wants to project and indeed offers a unique chance to launder the country’ reputation.Russian capabilities align elegantly with the world’s pandemic needs. As developing countries tried and failed to secure enough vaccine supplies through Western mechanisms, headlines worldwide hail Russia as the partner that really comes through when it counts.Russia’s official mouthpieces minutely cover each new country that approves Sputnik V for use, while the Russian Direct Investment Fund, the Kremlin agency that bankrolled Sputnik V s development, trumpets Russia’s achievement not just in finding a vaccine first, but also in making it widely available.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131124/636ced719c7e80680e09adc7jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="578">Sputnik V’s <a href="https://twitter.com/sputnikvaccine" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Twitter</a> feed pumps out messages once or twice an hour — ‘A planeload of vaccines lands in Armenia!’ — or retweets good news from partner countries. The Mexican Health Ministry claims that Sputnik V is the only vaccine with a 0% chance of producing serious adverse side effects.What Russia can no longer achieve with its declining military strength, Flemming Splidsboel Hansen at the Danish Institute for International Studies writes, it now seeks through cognitive and digital means.First in line for the Russian jab have been Moscow’s long-time allies. “The vaccines underline the anti-Western bloc’s scientific prowess. Ideology demands it be portrayed as greater than the West’s,” says Félix Arellano, a professor of international relations at the Universidad Central de Venezuela in Caracas.He adds: “Russia’s posture, in offering up highly effective vaccines at a low price for countries like Venezuela, is media-driven. It’s how Russia and its allies seek to show that authoritarian governments can also grow in the scientific realm, that it’s possible to grow without democracy.”Argentina, under a proto-socialist government, was the first to send a team to Moscow to translate Sputnik V’s technical documentation to Spanish and set up its own production facilities.Other countries soon followed suit, including Mexico, Brazil, Bolivia, and even US allies like Peru, Chile, and Colombia. The last three were the final seal of approval on an operation that is succeeding largely thanks to the West’s navel-gazing inaction.“At this point the discussion, at least in Peru, grants the need to negotiate to secure whatever vaccine is on offer,” explains Oscar Vidarte, a professor of international relations at the Pontificia Universidad Católica de Perú in Lima.For Colombia, buying into Sputnik V serves two purposes, immunising a vulnerable population and rebuilding bilateral links with Moscow. “We’re Washington’s key ally in the region,” says Mauricio Jaramillo, who teaches international relations at the Universidad del Rosario in Bogotá, “but the U.S. is not trying to leverage vaccines to project its power or earn prestige.”The West hasn’t so much lost this fight as forfeited it. The World Health Organization (WHO) <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/glimmers-of-hope-for-nepal-on-vaccine/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">COVAX initiative</a> amounts to a clearinghouse for the West’s leftovers.The Biden administration has pledged some $4 billion to COVAX, but the WHO’s director-general, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, acknowledges that ‘when there are no vaccines to buy, money is irrelevant.’It is not just access to ample supply that is tilting the field in Moscow’s favour, it is how the Russians approach supply agreements, making sure to portray deals not as charity, but as partnerships among equals, say experts.Meanwhile, Sputnik V’s successes keep mounting. The European Union’s shambolic vaccine roll-out has brought even some member countries like Slovakia, Hungary, Greece, and the Czech Republic knocking on Moscow’s door. Each has had to negotiate unilaterally for its share.Italy and Spain are now considering doing the same, and the European Medicines Agency has had no choice but to formally consider certifying the Russian vaccine, softening its line in the wake of Crimea and Navalny.To be sure, liberal democracy need not fear for its life from the Russian vaccine. But the West has left a huge leadership vacuum at a moment of acute crisis that Russia is determined to exploit.Western democracies, and particularly the United States, have lost too many opportunities to the pandemic — not least among them the chance to back their allies, firm up their influence and position themselves as the go-to model for how to manage a crisis that, many scientists fear, could be repeated sooner than many realise.Valentine Lares is a journalist and managing editor of Armando.info, an investigative journalism site. This <a href="http://www.ipsnews.net/2021/05/russias-sputnik-diplomacy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">article</a> was originally published in community blog <a href="https://www.persuasion.community/p/sputnik-diplomacy?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxMjQ2NTkyNiwicG9zdF9pZCI6MzU0Nzk2NzEsIl8iOiJsQldzViIsImlhdCI6MTYxOTc5MzMxOSwiZXhwIjoxNjE5Nzk2OTE5LCJpc3MiOiJwdWItNjE1NzkiLCJzdWIiOiJwb3N0LXJlYWN0aW9uIn0.GJMrfTqUglKDoYoOsBLqkMKNIkoSVz0PS42EBCmQpSI">Persuasion</a> and <a href="http://www.ipsnews.net/2021/05/russias-sputnik-diplomacy/">Inter Press Service.</a>Nepal is in talks to procure 8 million doses of Sputnik V vaccine. Russia has offered an international competitive price of $19.90 per two shots. The jab received emergency use permit in Nepal back in April and has over 90% efficacy.In the region, India and Philippines have started inoculating its populations with the Russian jab. Bangladesh has also entered an agreement to domestically produce the vaccine.

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121112/636b8bc79c7e80680e06b2c0jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2000" height="896"/>Governments in industrialised countries must not ignore the plight of poorer nations facing the coronavirus pandemic, or the disease will not be brought under control.African nations report growing numbers of cases, and more and more infections are being detected in countries with endemic poverty in Asia as testing picks. There are growing fears that developing countries could soon see major outbreaks they will not be able to cope with.A potential paralysis of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-must-hope-for-the-best-prepare-for-the-worst/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">already vulnerable healthcare systems</a> would not only have a drastic impact on public health, but could also push people further into poverty and deprivation. If developed countries in Europe and North America bring COVID-19 under control, there is a threat that the disease would rage on in developing countries, with the danger that it could spread back into places like North America and Europe.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-must-hope-for-the-best-prepare-for-the-worst/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal must hope for the best, prepare for the worst</a>, Buddha Basnyat and Sudeep AdhikariRich states must keep a focus on helping other countries with weak healthcare systems, despite the fact they are fighting their own battle with the disease.“High income countries are completely consumed with what is happening in their own states, but it would be good if they could give at least some focus to poorer countries,” Amanda Glassman of the Washington-based Global Centre for Development think-tank. “If things are not brought under control in less developed countries, it could come back to hurt developed countries later on.”But while there have been <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/could-an-anti-tb-vaccine-be-protecting-nepalis/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">far fewer registered cases of the disease</a> in Africa, Asia and South America, many health experts believe that those numbers could very quickly rise dramatically. Some countries also face extra burdens of other endemic diseases, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/epicentre-of-two-disasters-in-west-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">recent natural disasters</a>  or coping with large-scale refugee influxes.“Sub-Saharan Africa is already struggling with the Ebola virus and the locust invasion and associated famines. It now faces a third war against the coronavirus. In many countries, resources are stretched thin,” said Dan Steinbock of the Difference Group advisory organisation.South Africa has the world’s worst HIV/AIDS epidemic and it is not known how a major coronavirus outbreak may affect treatment for those with HIV/AIDS or outcomes if they are infected with COVID-19. In Latin America, where more than two thirds of people live in extreme poverty, doctors have already warned of the strain widespread coronavirus infections could put on hospitals and health workers.Any major COVID-19 outbreak could affect incidence, and treatment of other diseases in some African states, says Ambrose Talisuna at the WHO Regional Office for Africa. “We saw this with Ebola outbreaks in some African countries. There was a diversion of resources to the disease and the healthcare system couldn’t deal with the shock of the outbreak. People died of malaria, people couldn’t get treatment for tuberculosis.”There would also be serious economic problems. Not only would massive financial resources have to go into healthcare rapidly, but measures implemented to contain the virus’s spread, such as travel restrictions, business closures, quarantines, would very soon affect people’s incomes.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/ke-garne-attitude-kills-people/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ke garne attitude kills people</a>, Laxmi BasnetOne potential advantage some less developed countries may have in dealing with an initial outbreak is their experience with other deadly infectious diseases. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, a devastating Ebola outbreak has just been brought under control. Tests for COVID-19 could simply be added to existing Ebola screening on entry into the country.Some of the poorest in the world in Asia, Latin America and Africa, have begun introducing strict measures to try and halt the spread of the disease. These have included closing borders and lockdowns. While WHO has supported the use of such measures, they have been shown to have had an enormous economic toll with sectors such as travel, transportation, tourism and retail, among others, all seriously affected.“The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/what-nepal-can-learn-from-china-about-covid-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">draconian measures that China opted for</a> have been very costly. But all alternatives would have been much worse. The Chinese leadership had to choose between extensive economic damage in one to two quarters with probable virus containment, or far greater economic devastation coupled with drastic increases in cases and deaths,” explained Steinbock.But the costs cannot, and should not, be borne by developing nations alone, development experts say. While local governments can help businesses and individuals with measures such as tax relief, providing financial support through loans, and exemptions from health and social security payments, other countries have a role to play.This month the World Bank made $12 billion available in immediate support to help countries coping with the health and economic impacts of the global outbreak. The International Monetary Fund has said $10 billion could be mobilised in loans to low-income countries tackling the virus. On March 13 WHO and its partners launched the <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/13-03-2020-who-un-foundation-and-partners-launch-first-of-its-kind-covid-19-solidarity-response-fund" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/13-03-2020-who-un-foundation-and-partners-launch-first-of-its-kind-covid-19-solidarity-response-fund&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1587206340290000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEFMIPH219XuGD5cfiwkL2SpBnokg">COVID-19 Solidarity Response Fund</a> which aims to raise funds from private and corporate individuals to contribute to global response efforts. Meanwhile, the Global Fund for HIV, TB and malaria is to allow some funds to be used for the virus response while the United Nations’ Central Emergency Response Fund global emergency response fund has made $15 million available.Over a month ago, WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus launched a $675 million preparedness plan hoping to contain the crisis and pave the way to deter future crises. But that is less than 1% of the US 2020 military budget. In late February, the European Commission earmarked $124 million for the WHO response plan, but others have not proved as generous.Added Steinbock: “No matter how it is funded, experts agree that developing countries must be given whatever help is needed to contain the disease. If cases escape detection in poor countries, then it is more likely than not that weak healthcare systems, coupled with endemic poverty and social instability could result in a secondary epidemic with potential global impact.”IPS

A COVID-19 third wave in the Third World?

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101152/636b79289c7e80680e0646e7jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640"/><figcaption>A quarantine zone at Nepal Army's headquarters in Tundikhel. Photo: BIKRAM RAI</figcaption></figure>By now the novel coronavirus pandemic has affected every corner of the globe. If it has not brought disease, it has at least brought the <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.15px;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/fear-goes-viral/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">fear of infection</a>. Cities, and indeed entire countries, are in lockdown. Fortress Europe has raised its walls higher. Airlines are grounded. Nepal has banned trunk international routes from Friday night. Even countries with excellent public health facilities and emergency preparedness plans are overwhelmed.Nepal is now <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/global-thinking-and-local-action-on-coronavirus/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">so closely intertwined with globalisation</a> through migration, tourism and trade that its <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-economy-already-weak-takes-direct-hit/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">already-fragile economy has been badly hit</a> even before a full-blown health emergency hits. Ironically, less-developed countries seem to have a built-in resilience that comes from being crisis-prone -- since they are lower down in the economic ladder, they have a shorter distance to fall.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/poor-health-makes-nepalis-poorer/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Poor health makes Nepalis poorer</a>, EditorialDespite Nepal’s surprisingly <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/born-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">dramatic improvements in mother-child survival </a>over the past two decades, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/poor-health/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the public health system here is in crisis</a>. State-of-the-art modern hospitals in the city, while reducing the need for Nepalis to go abroad for treatment, are out of reach of a majority of the population. Government health facilities are more affordable, but for the most part medical care there is not up to mark.Nepalis are still afflicted by easily preventable water-borne diseases like <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=16988#.XnMUhagzbSF" target="_blank" rel="noopener">typhoid and diarrhoea</a>, vector-borne infections like malaria, encephalitis or dengue, and illnesses like <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-tb-cases-grossly-underestimated/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">tuberculosis </a>and acute respiratory infections that spread through breathing. Great inroads have been made in reducing the impact of communicable diseases in the past decades through awareness programs, vaccinations and safer drinking water, but children in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/this-is-how-to-upgrade-nepals-rural-health/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">remoter parts of Nepal</a> are still dying of simple infections.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-shot-in-the-arm-for-vaccines-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A shot in the arm for vaccines in Nepal</a>, Sonia AwaleOn top of this, urbanising Nepal now also has the added burden of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/poor-health/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">non-communicable afflictions</a> like diabetes, cardio-vascular ailments and renal disease. As families move from the districts to the cities, changes in diet and more sedentary habits have given rise to an epidemic of lifestyle-related diseases. This is compounded by genetic susceptibility among South Asians for diabetes and heart disease.For example, a study by the BPKIHS in Dharan showed that while the national average for <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/diabetes-in-south-asia,3018" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Type 2 diabetes </a>prevalence is 8.1% of the population, the incidence in Dharan was 14%, while it was only 1% in Taplejung. The prime minister’s own second kidney transplant this month showed that <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/health-tip-editorial,4032" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ignoring risk factors and not diagnosing non-communicable diseases</a> can lead to a huge health burden for families and the state. A small percentage of Nepalis have health insurance, so many middle income families fall below the poverty line due to medical expenses. Many Nepali migrant workers have been forced to seek jobs abroad to pay back debts incurred during hospitalisation of family members.Last summer’s explosion of dengue in Kathmandu Valley was <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/mosquitoes-move-up-mountains-as-the-earth-warms/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">blamed on climate change</a>. But it was actually a perfect storm of crowded and squalid living conditions, poor drainage, greater mobility of people, and a particularly wet monsoon. None of these factors have been addressed, so we are staring at a recurrence of dengue this year even while we cope with <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/why-nepal-must-watch-about-coronavirus-but-not-panic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a possible COVID-19 outbreak</a>.Public health has not been a national priority for successive governments in Nepal. Even if it has, it is only in paper and has not really been translated into <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/is-free-health-care-possible-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">accessible and affordable healthcare</a> for the general public. Governance failure has contributed to this state of affairs, but there is also the virus of corruption that has afflicted the entire government healthcare system. A politico-business nexus has also infected <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=19560" target="_blank" rel="noopener">medical education</a>, putting it out of reach of deserving poorer students.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/when-panic-goes-viral/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">When panic goes viral</a>, EditorialInto this mix, we now have the coronavirus scare. Officially, Nepal has just one case in which the patient recovered and has been discharged. The government has tested about 500 people, and all have been negative. Experts have confirmed that the tests are credible, and proper protocols are in place. But not enough tests have been done to determine if there are more people out there with the virus.At $75 per test, the kits are expensive. This is where international help would be needed, and if the case rate rises the country will also need help with containment and mitigation. Nepal has been lucky so far that there is no indication of community transmission yet. But our luck could turn any day.

This is a test

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110814110/636a52e69c7e80680e05231fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1826" height="507"/><figcaption>Lhotse glacier, Chukung village to the far left. Photo: ALTON C BYERS</figcaption></figure>Most of the recent talk within the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process and elsewhere has focused on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/decarbonise-now/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cutting greenhouse gas emissions</a> to reduce the impact of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/weather-warning-for-climate-meeting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">climate change</a>.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/from-playing-victim-to-proactive-leadership-on-climate/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mitigation</a> was the buzzword, and any mention of adaptation was avoided because for some it meant accepting defeat. But today, driven largely by the concerns of developing countries, which bear the brunt of the climate emergency, adaptation is the key issue. But since adapting to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-damage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">climate change is so closely linked with issues of power, governance and politics</a>, it is not well understood. Successfully adapting to climate change is often based on how individuals, households and communities switch and improve livelihoods.Given Nepal’s geographical, climate and ecosystem diversity from plains to mountains, the question is: what do people actually adapt to? Is it <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-on-the-heat/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rising temperatures and heat</a>, erratic rains, droughts, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/flood-of-recrimination/">floods</a>, forest fires or increased rates of diseases?Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/living-below-nepals-melting-mountains/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Living below Nepal's melting mountains</a>, Alton C Byers <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/look-whats-cooking-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Look what's cooking in Nepal</a>, Anil ChitrakarFamilies in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">high mountain valleys</a> may not have to worry about floods, but are affected when roads are blocked, severing access to markets. Those in the mid-mountains may be badly impacted by landslides, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/nepals-silent-emergency-springs-going-dry/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">drying springs</a>, or declining agriculture production due to droughts.An adaptation strategy that works in an isolated mountain settlement will not work in Kathmandu. Though <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-climax/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">climate change</a> is a global problem, its impacts are very local and different. National-level attempts to adapt will thus be unsuccessful, yet global conversations and the resultant aid flows continue to ignore sub-national differences.In 2001, the UNFCCC established a program for least developed countries that included financial and technical support to prepare National Adaptation Plans of Action (NAPA) to meet ‘immediate and urgent’ adaptation needs. Today the conversation has moved to National Adaptation Plans (NAP) that focus on integrating climate risks into development planning and implementation.Nepal was late in preparing its NAPA, which turned out to be a temporary blessing in disguise. Using additional donor funding, the Ministry of Science Technology and Environment prepared a NAPA 'Plus' in 2009, which included a more consultative process to capture local nuances. In 2011, Nepal formulated a LAPA framework and also promulgated a climate policy stipulating that 80% of resources earmarked for the climate crisis would be allocated to local levels.Donor support was available and the country implemented LAPA programs in a few selected regions. But we still don’t know if the resources were really spent in rural areas, or if they made any difference.There are three major challenges for successful adaptation to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/on-thin-ice-in-the-khumbu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">climate impacts</a>. First is attribution: a localised weather event cannot be directly linked to climate change. Second relates to how people and institutions respond to new climate shocks, usually by <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/living-below-nepals-melting-mountains/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">local people meeting local needs</a>.Finally, individual adaptation strategies are most successful and enduring when people have access to drinking water, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/look-whats-cooking-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">clean energy</a>, information, finances and alternative sources of income, as well as the right to organise, express their voices and access political outlets.Given the rapid spread of the climate emergency, it is clear that existing project-based efforts cannot add up at scale. Our current understanding of adaptation offers very little by way of solutions for the scale of transformative shifts necessary now and into the future for Nepal and elsewhere. Based on the polluter pays principle, the developed world should indeed bear the cost of adaptation in developing countries to make up for historical emissions. But when our springs dry up, having more money may not be of much help.Even without climate change, Nepal faced challenges managing disasters and development. The climate emergency is a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/life-in-the-time-of-tornadoes/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">threat multiplier</a> that will seriously strain our socio-economic, political and ecological futures.Ajaya Dixit is Executive Director of Kathmandu based ISET-Nepal. His monthly column Climate for Change deals with the impact of global warming in Nepal.

The climate threat multiplier

Nepal has shut down dozens of social media platforms in a move that is widely seen as an effort to tax the revenue they generate in the country, and to control content critical of government. The sites were blocked as of midnight on Thursday, 4 September and affects all Meta products including WhatsApp and Messenger, Threads, and others. Although YouTube, Google and X are also on the government’s list, they were still working as of Friday midday.&nbsp; The government says it took the action after repeated warnings to the platforms to open offices in Nepal, a Cabinet decision last month setting a deadline, as well as a 17 August Supreme Court ruling also requiring them to register and pay requisite taxes. However, the Bill cited in the ban, ‘The Operation, Use, and Regulation of Social Media in Nepal’ has not yet been passed by Parliament. Some social media platforms which were already paying taxes in Nepal even though they are not officially registered, have also been blocked. The move is the latest in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/big-beautiful-bills" target="_blank">a slew of draft legislations</a> designed to undermine Nepal’s open society. A Bill amending the Print and Publications Act would allow district bureaucrats to shut down media. Another draft Bill would allow political appointees to head a new Media Council with the power to revoke the licenses of journalists.&nbsp; A counter-intelligence Bill would let just about anyone in government to arbitrarily tap phones, read emails and trail citizens. On Wednesday the government announced new immigration requirements that would allow it to track the movement of all foreigners in the country. Yet another draft Bill has been set to Parliament to dissolve the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=10675" target="_blank">Social Welfare Council (SWC)</a> and move registration and monitoring of non-governmental organisations, nonprofits and charities to the Ministry of Social Welfare. Seen in this light, the blockage of social media platforms this week is seen as the latest government attempt to constrict freedom of press. Nepal is one of the few remaining open societies in Asia, and now appears to be drifting towards authoritarianism. The government’s sudden shutdown of social media has been greeted with howls of protest on platforms that still remain open, like Viber and TikTok, as well as in Nepal’s mainstream press. Even senior members of the ruling UML-NC coalition have sharply criticised the move, asking if the government is trying to “turn Nepal into North Korea”.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025090508098_a2ab330e403e8418a7006cd5e915607382628dd6984524332bf7b99c74743656.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="2025090508098_a2ab330e403e8418a7006cd5e915607382628dd6984524332bf7b99c74743656" data-rendition-name="original" width="4280" height="5187" loading="lazy" alt="social media ban in Nepal"> </figure>  The Regional Director of the New York-based Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) Beh Lih Yi said in a statement: ‘Nepal’s sweeping ban on social media sets a dangerous precedent for press freedom. Blocking online news platforms vital to journalists will undermine reporting and the public’s right to information. The government must immediately rescind this order and restore access to social media platforms, which are essential tools for exercising press freedom.’ Besides undermining press freedom, blocking social media platforms will also hurt commerce and the economy since so many small and medium business trade through Instagram, Facebook and other platforms. Nepal’s vibrant social media has also been a boost or citizens to assert identity, build solidarity against injustice and play an adversarial role when the mainstream media does not do it. Social media platforms have also become the tenuous link for Nepali families scattered across the world to keep in touch with each other — its importance growing with the increasing size of the diaspora. The government wants social media platforms to register, pay taxes and remove posts on their sites that ‘undermine the national interest and Nepal’s territorial integrity, disturb social and religious harmony’.&nbsp; In response, rights activists have said while there is need for the government to regulate extreme content and hate speech, officials appear to be more intent on clamping down on free speech and trying to force platforms to share the revenue. On Friday, the government had allowed WhatsApp back online, but there were reports that it had instructed the Nepal Telecommunication Authority (NTA) to instruct mobile and internet service providers to block by Friday night all platforms, including Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, WhatsApp, X (Twitter), YouTube, LinkedIn, Reddit, Threads, Snapchat, Pinterest, Signal, Clubhouse, Rumble.&nbsp; Platforms that have registered and are allowed include TikTok, Viber, Nimbuzz, Popo Live, WeTalk, Global Diary and the Nepali portal Hamro Patro. TikTok was banned last year for ‘disturbing social harmony’ and it was lifted after the platform registered its office in Nepal. But even while it was banned, many users simply switched to VPN. Telegram was also banned for ‘financial crimes’ and it has since also been allowed back. NTA officials confirmed that some Asia-Pacific regional offices of platforms, including Meta had been in touch overnight inquiring about the registration process.&nbsp; Nepal is not alone in regulating social media. China bans most Western platforms, Russia and Turkey regulate their and require platforms to locate their data servers in the country. Gulf countries allow social media but keep a tight control on dissent.&nbsp; Experts have said even the government will not dare close down YouTube since so many Nepali individuals and companies make money with posts on that platform, and closing it would also impact on Google and Gmail. Facebook had also just launched a monetisation scheme for videos and reels, and Nepalis uploading content would lose revenue.&nbsp; Blocking the platforms has already hit content creators, influencers and cut small businesses from reaching customers. A survey of social media use in Nepal by Sharecast Initiative showed that 94% of those with smart phones used YouTube, followed by Facebook (92%) while TikTok was in the 50-60% range. X and Instagram were in the single digits. A YouTube ban will also hurt the mainstream media since up to 20% of the revenue of Nepal’s main tv channels came through YouTube. Some 11.1 million Nepalis watch YouTube content every day, the survey showed. ‘For global giants like Meta or Google, Nepal is a small market, and they may not even flinch — but for millions of Nepalis, these platforms are central to daily life, livelihoods, and connections across the world,’ wrote AI consultant Naresh Newar in a LinkedIn post. Some experts said the government’s sweeping ban on social media networks was untenable and the government would be forced to rollback sooner or later. Said editor Shiva Gaunle: “The platforms had given citizens a voice and broken the monopoly of the government, legislators, the courts and journalists over public opinion. This is an effort to reassert that monopoly, but Nepal can never be turned into a North Korea.”

Protest grows against Nepal’s social media ban

It was 30 years ago this month that investment into ‘Baby Arun’, the 201MW first phase of the run-of-river Arun III project, was brought to a screeching halt when the World Bank officially withdrew its support. This brought about profound and fundamental changes in the way Nepal’s power sector subsequently developed. Nepalis suffered debilitating power outages between 2008-2016 due to shortages attributable to the cancellation. At the same time, the gap left by Baby Arun was filled by private sector investment in ways that were not obvious in 1995. It took 30 years, but in many ways Nepal’s power sector is more healthy today than it has ever been, and likely better than if the project was built as planned. At a projected budget of $1.08 billion, Baby Arun would have cost the equivalent of Nepal’s entire annual government expenditure in 1995. It was to be funded by concessional grants and loans from multilateral and bilateral funders, including the World Bank, Asian Development Bank (ADB), KfW, and investment by the government itself. At the time, Nepal’s total electricity generation capacity was only 230MW, and the trajectory of the power sector changed dramatically following the cancellation. In the past 30 years, $5.4 billion has been invested in the power sector led by private investors, and much of it from domestic banks and pension funds (table, right).  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250829150840_c13d6f9f34d7163832b3089eabdad6f20d2d5cef3a53039e0432add2be6c32f0.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250829150840_c13d6f9f34d7163832b3089eabdad6f20d2d5cef3a53039e0432add2be6c32f0" data-rendition-name="original" width="984" height="521" loading="lazy" alt="30 years after Baby Arun"> </figure>  Nearly 70% of the new megawatts generated were by private independent power producers (IPP) in the past 30 years, while the Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) and its subsidiary companies added 30% of new capacity. Almost 80% of total debt financing came from domestic banks and employee retirement funds. International assistance for power generation dropped dramatically over this time, accounting for only about 15% of investment. Before 1995 new power projects used to be entirely dependent on foreign aid. Since 1995, 63% of new generation came from 171 small hydropower projects with an average capacity of 12MW, while 4% was from 21 solar photovoltaic and biomass projects developed by local IPPs.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250829150844_5bc299fc78be90b95ce4727b0b3bdaa4542e17e126718cc8725d136630ffc097.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250829150844_5bc299fc78be90b95ce4727b0b3bdaa4542e17e126718cc8725d136630ffc097" data-rendition-name="original" width="988" height="503" loading="lazy" alt="30 years after Baby Arun"> </figure>  Over three decades, investment in Nepal’s power supply came primarily from new actors that had never before been involved in this sector. The rate of electrification rose from 10% to close to 100% -- sufficient to meet domestic needs during most of the year, and in 2024 made Nepal a net exporter of power to India for the first time in its history. As practically all the new investment in this period went into run-of-river hydro and solar projects, rather than into hydropower reservoirs with seasonal storage, Nepal continues to rely on imports from India during the dry winter months. Surplus electricity generation for export during the monsoon is slated to grow rapidly as another 200 solar and hydro projects are nearing completion of construction, with over 5,000MW of power capacity. Private Power The cancellation of Baby Arun inadvertently accelerated the entry of the private sector into Nepal’s power generation. The government enacted the Electricity Act in 1992 to attract private IPPs and diversify away from total dependence from international aid, but had been struggling for several years to conclude the first agreement with the 60MW Khimti Project. There remained a large gap between the tariff that the government thought was reasonable versus what was demanded by the Norwegian investor Statkraft, and the private sector arms of the World Bank and ADB that were financing the project. The shock of World Bank withdrawal from Baby Arun put tremendous pressure on the government, then led by the UML as it is now. The Bank’s decision to terminate its involvement was ostensibly, at least partially, taken in response to a letter critiquing the project sent by the UML while it was in the opposition.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250829150848_7fb3641d776fe86a09ad60a758f7e16660a409fdb15e541644f13646b0894347.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20250829150848_7fb3641d776fe86a09ad60a758f7e16660a409fdb15e541644f13646b0894347" data-rendition-name="original" width="949" height="446" loading="lazy" alt="30 years after Baby Arun"> <figcaption>BAD NEWS: Newspaper clippings from the early 90s on tender announcement ahead of loan approval (left) and secrecy surrounding environmental assessment (centre) of Arun III before its eventual cancellation in August 1995.</figcaption> </figure>  The government was forced to soften its position and agree to the investors’ terms following the cancellation of Baby Arun. It directed NEA to sign a power purchase agreement (PPA) with Khimti. It was concluded in January 1996, and this was followed by a second PPA in July 1996 with Panda Energy, the American developer of the 45MW Upper Bhotekosi project. The expensive USD-denominated agreements to buy power from two international private producers, with price escalation clauses tied to the New York Consumer Price Index, sent alarm bells ringing. There was worry that the country was heading towards unaffordable tariff rates for the consumer and potential bankruptcy for NEA as a result of inevitable future weakening of the Nepali Rupee. The government had strong-armed NEA into signing these agreements, and realised that concessionary financing terms that Nepal was used to receiving for public sector projects such as Baby Arun and Kali Gandaki A, that included below-market interest rates and 40 years repayment period with a 10 year grace period before starting repayment, were not the norm for private sector investors. Nepal’s status as a less than attractive destination for foreign investment meant that the country had few options but to accept expensive dollar PPAs from international developers with the high commercial interest rates and short repayment periods imposed by their banks because of high investment risks. In the end, the government ended up having to additionally provide a sovereign guarantee in order to close the deal at the insistence of the lenders – committing it to repayment in case NEA defaulted on paying the IPPs. It is reasonable to assume that the extraordinarily high political cost of agreeing to the PPA terms would have meant that no government would have willingly agreed to them in 1995 had it not suffered the trauma of the loss of concessionary-financed public sector projects as large as the Baby Arun. It has taken NEA 25 years to consider offering dollar-denominated PPAs again: to cover the foreign exchange portion of the investment in the 216MW Upper Trisuli-1 and 120MW Rasuwa-Bhotekosi Hydropower projects. It seemed unlikely at the time, but it turned out that the dire situation Nepal found itself in 1995 planted the seed to mobilise investment for affordable power from within the country. Double Whammy After the dual shock of first losing investment in Baby Arun and having to sign expensive power purchase agreements with international IPPs, the first proposal for an alternative strategy to mitigate the risk of foreign currency investment into hydropower projects came from a group of engineers within the Arun III team at NEA. Led by <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=4900">Deputy Director Damber Bahadur Nepali,</a> engineers convinced the leadership that NEA needed to invest in a subsidiary company to build a series of locally-designed and domestically-financed projects that would have lower cost with rupee-denominated PPAs. They registered the Chilime Hydropower Company Limited (CHCL) in October 1995 with 51% shares from NEA, 25% from its employees, and 24% available for the general public, 10% of which was prioritised for local residents at the project site. The 22.1MW project is in Rasuwa on a tributary of the Trisuli, and mobilised debt financing from the Employee Provident Fund, which manages retirement savings for employees of the government, public enterprises, and private sector institutions. CHCL’s experience showed that NEA employees themselves believed that individual hydropower projects with operational independence from NEA could be developed profitably in Nepal by its own engineers -- and they were willing to put their own money on the line. Chilime also demonstrated that there was money in the country, particularly with retirement funds, looking for opportunities for long-term investments. Following completion of Chilime in 2003, CHCL led the formation of three other NEA subsidiary companies that completed construction in 2023 and 2024, producing 168.3MW using fully rupee-tied investment. NEA’s largest subsidiary, the Upper Tamakosi Hydropower Limited, completed construction of its 456MW plant in 2021.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250829160812_ce9ab8b49c598970db3f5bf0a079061ef52f153b28d9f4ead2bb1b26bfd7c2f3.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250829160812_ce9ab8b49c598970db3f5bf0a079061ef52f153b28d9f4ead2bb1b26bfd7c2f3" data-rendition-name="original" width="3000" height="1571" loading="lazy" alt="30 Years after Baby Arun"> <figcaption>DAMNED: The $700 million 456MW Upper Tamakosi built entirely with domestic funds before it was destroyed by the September floods last year. </figcaption> </figure>  There were some delays and cost overruns on this run-of-river project, the largest in the country with a final cost of over $700 million -- all of it sourced domestically. The five subsidiary companies launched by NEA have produced almost two times as much new power as NEA has over the past 30 years. Seven other NEA subsidiaries are currently constructing projects to add another 474MW to the national grid. But even more important than NEA subsidiaries have been local IPPs: Nepali companies which have over the past three decades enthusiastically entered the hydropower sector. From a regulatory perspective, the credit for mobilising domestic private investment to engage in power generation goes to Minister of Water Resources Shailaja Acharya, who in 1998 offered a flat feed-in-tariff of Rs4/kWh for hydropower projects under 10MW. This upfront offer removed a major barrier that early developers had faced of having to spend money to carry out a detailed feasibility study before they could even start tariff negotiations with NEA. She had laid the foundation stone of the Chilime project, and proved to be the champion of opening up the sector for domestic IPPs. The guarantee of a PPA with a fixed tariff, irrespective of project specifications, gave small power developers the confidence to apply for survey licenses and invest in feasibility studies so they could directly approach commercial banks and make a case for their project producing required revenue to repay loans. Domestic IPPs started adding power to the national grid in 2002. Their contribution was initially modest, and first projects were small and commercial lenders who took time to be confident about providing debt financing to a sector which had previously not been considered suitable for private sector investment. While the first 10 years were slow, with less than 10MW being added to the grid each year, this increased twenty fold over the following ten years, resulting in the equivalent of a Baby Arun being added by Nepali IPPs to the grid each year. A total of 84 IPPs added 232MW, 328 MW, 454MW, and 400MW of new generation to the grid in 2021-2024 (graph). There was explosive, exponential growth as domestic developers have surged ahead to account for 76% of the new megawatts added to the grid since 2020, compared to 24% by NEA and its subsidiary companies. The megawatts that IPPs are adding have followed the classic ‘hockey stick curve’ with the ‘breakout point’, signaling the rapid growth phase in 2020. Private producers are expected to accelerate new generation in the coming years with 300 solar and hydropower projects adding 11,000MW. Another 166 hydropower and 96 solar projects are currently in the survey stage, and are in line to add another 11,000MW to the construction pipeline. One major challenge is finding financing required for the projects. Domestic investment will no longer be sufficient to finance this ambitious pipeline of renewable energy projects. Project developers as well as NEA and the Electricity Regulatory Commission will have to leverage their substantial experience accumulated through the construction of over 200 projects to attract regional and international investment and hedge the risks of dollar-denominated PPAs. Following the cancellation of Baby Arun, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/people-power/decentralising-power-in-nepal">Nepal developed a highly distributed power sector</a>. The national electricity grid is currently supplied with power from a remarkably decentralised array of hundreds of hydropower and solar photovoltaic projects spread across 43 districts and all seven provinces.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250829150848_0c3aa66b34bfb08380a624f397bf3ebb4126f4d6b41a26115848b496876f501b.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20250829150848_0c3aa66b34bfb08380a624f397bf3ebb4126f4d6b41a26115848b496876f501b" data-rendition-name="original" width="1228" height="867" loading="lazy" alt="30 years after Baby Arun"> </figure>  This presents a sharp contrast to the pathway of a few large public sector hydropower projects with a sprinkling of private sector projects that was envisioned as part of NEA’s investment planning when Baby Arun was being considered the front runner for investment. The strategy then was to allow public sector investment in a few large hydropower projects with thermal plants to fill the gap. Knowing what we know now about acceleration of climate change impacts and increased extreme weather events, following this path would have made Nepal’s power sector highly vulnerable. Decentralised generation greatly improves the resilience of Nepal’s power supply as damage to power plants in one part of the country need not affect other areas that have their own generation. Following the investment plan where over two thirds of the country’s power supply would have come from power plants on the Arun River, would have greatly imperiled Nepal’s energy security. All rivers in Nepal are susceptible to flooding from cloudbursts made more frequent by climate change. The Arun River which is fed by glaciers in Tibet is also at risk to glacial lake outburst floods. Bikash Pandey is Director of Clean Energy and Circular Economy at Winrock International. People Power is his regular column in Nepali Times on global energy issues relevant to Nepal. <h2>Decentralised and Diversified</h2> In the 30 years since the cancellation of ‘Baby Arun’: Hydropower projects constructed cover capacities ranging from less than 1MW to 456MW and developed by IPPs from across the country with strong local involvement in purchasing equity shares. Renewable energy sources contributed to the generation mix through solar IPPs that further contribute to climate resilience, and cover shortfalls during low rainfall. The government is committed to solar contributing 10% of the power on the grid. Increasing solar beyond this target and providing incentives to project developers to invest in utility-scale battery storage would further improve resilience. BIG ARUN: The 900MW Arun III project under construction since 2018 at Num in Sankhuwasabha (pictured, below) is a separate initiative by a different project developer using a different financing modality. The ‘Baby Arun’ version of Arun III was cancelled in 1995.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250829150852_df534df5166eb5a9bb4cbe101627bdec7ac1df2a405a9d3988d1c86fcc8ecdeb.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20250829150852_df534df5166eb5a9bb4cbe101627bdec7ac1df2a405a9d3988d1c86fcc8ecdeb" data-rendition-name="original" width="1750" height="1312" loading="lazy" alt="30 Years after Baby Arun"> </figure>

30 years after Baby Arun

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2fZXyjsE28" target="_blank">Yog Narendra Malla</a> became king at age 18, and ruled Patan from 1684-1705 — his reign marked by a cultural and architectural renaissance of the city state. He put up a statue of himself in the palace square with a little bronze bird sitting on the guardian serpent above his head. It is said he told his subjects that he would look after their welfare till the day the bird flew off. During<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lessons-not-learned-from-2015-o2etq6zu"> the 2015 earthquake</a>, the pedestal collapsed and the statue was damaged. The bird was lost, only to be located in a pile of debris and reinstated when the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/piece-by-piece-patan-darbar-square-reconstruction,3782" target="_blank">statue was consecrated</a> two years later. <div class="embed-block"><iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/x2fZXyjsE28?si=jYfIb4p6zCLXYQ1T" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe></div> History remembers Yog Narendra Malla as a wise king, but like most<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/preserving-king-birendra-s-family-home"> royalty of the day</a>, he had a weakness for women. He is supposed to have consorted with 30 queens and numerous concubines. At least 33 of them self-immolated themselves on the king's funeral pyre when he died, adhering to the prevailing <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/review/Jhola,947">practice of sati</a>. When Yog Narendra Malla’s favourite queen found out that he was carrying on with yet another woman, she got the local community of the Kwelachhi neighbourhood to stage a shadow sex play to quite literally expose his unfaithfulness. Actors enacted the explicit exploits of the king and his mistress, a bright butter lamp projecting the moving shadows of their lovemaking on a thin white drape to entertain those gathered in the square below. The queen made sure that the show was designed to face the home of the king’s paramour to shame them both. She also paid for a group to chant a bhajan with lyrics that ridiculed the king’s extramarital affair. The Jhyalcha Guthi community trust that the queen set up three-and-half century ago is still active to this day, and performs the annual shadow play in the same building in Kwelachhi the day before <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/the-legend-behind-the-myth-of-indra-jatra">Indra Jatra </a>every year. This year’s show is on Friday evening, 5 September. The opening lines of the chants that accompany the play are the same words approved by the queen all those years ago: “Raja Yog Narendra ya aparadh…” (King Yog Narendra’s crime…) The community leader of the Kwelachhi neighbourhood, 62-year-old Baburaja Awale, explains the importance of the event: “This Jhyalcha is our<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/saving-the-intangible,3303"> intangible heritage</a> and oral history. We do not have a written format, it has been passed down from generation to generation. Every word of the bhajan is the story of King Yog Narendra Malla.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250904070952_249e85b32cbd99bb8515151557e0ec1a65d44a34ef1aacabaaeb469622d12664.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250904070952_249e85b32cbd99bb8515151557e0ec1a65d44a34ef1aacabaaeb469622d12664" data-rendition-name="original" width="1750" height="1167" loading="lazy" alt="Sex and the city of Patan"> <figcaption>The statue of Yog Narendra Malla being reinstated after it toppled in the 2015 earthquake. Photo: GOPEN RAI/ NEPALI TIMES ARCHIVE</figcaption> </figure>  Jhyalcha Pyankha, as the ceremony is called, starts with a puja for the Bhimsen — the god of wealth and prosperity, a popular <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-homecoming-of-nepal-s-gods">deity in Patan</a> who has a temple dedicated just to him in the palace square. This is immediately followed by a bhajan of Bhairab performed with <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/Buzz-house,670">traditional Newa musical instruments</a>. Community members serve snacks consisting of samay baji beaten rice, water buffalo chunks, soybean, green veggies, lentils, ginger, garlic and aila liquor. “In the first act of the shadow play, the man initiates the lovemaking, and in the third it is the woman,” says Laxmi Lal Awale, also a member of the trust that organises the show. The shadow action is all uncensored, but interspersed with <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/between-the-sacred-and-everyday">scenes of everyday life</a>: the woman is spinning a thread, the king is going about his royal chores, and the two sit down to share sanacha fermented pickle that is popular this time of year. <div class="embed-block"><iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/qZ3twuG1wNQ?si=yRfkoC3A-X9cIl8r" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe></div> “Back then, there was no tv, films or YouTube, and yet we managed to stage the shadow play using our own resourcefulness,” says Baburaja Awale. “It is important to continue the tradition.” The challenge now is to ensure that the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-reign-of-the-god-of-rain"> younger generation takes over</a>, learning the lyrics of the ancient bhajan. The dafa khala group that performs all over Patan during festivals and religious events is now training teenagers to play the musical instruments and act in the shadow play. The Jhyalcha was staged even after the 2015 earthquake when the falcha where the bhajan is performed collapsed and they made-do in a tin shed. The structure was later rebuilt with a grant from the group, Photo Circle. Lalitpur Metropolitan City sets aside a budget of Rs50,000 to organise the Jhyalcha Pyankha every year, but this is not enough and is supplemented by individual donations. The performers including musicians and actors are all volunteers, and take part in it because it is their community duty. The erotic shadow play was way ahead of its time, not just in its graphic content but the use of contemporary local technology as well as improvisation and pure imagination. Says Laxmi Lal: “Whatever its origin in the legend of King Yog Narendra Malla and his queen, Jhyalcha also served as a medium of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lets-talk-about-it">sex education</a>. In the past, women were discouraged from watching the shadow play, but today everyone is welcome, we all watch it together.” Jhyalcha Pyankha Kwelachhi, Chyasal, Patan 7PM onwards Friday, 5 September

Sex and the city of Patan

This is the 72nd episode of Diaspora Diaries, a Nepali Times series in collaboration with Migration Lab providing a platform to share experiences of living, working and studying abroad. My father ran a store and that is where I spent all my time till Grade 6. Doing my homework. Serving customers. I then moved to my maternal grandparents’ house because I used to get along with my cousin who was a year older than me. We did everything together, and were best friends. We took turns studying: I was a night owl, and he was an early riser. Before I went to bed after studying all night, I woke him up. My mother was 44 when I was born, the same year my eldest brother got married. My sister-in-law becoming a part of our family was how my mother referenced my age. I liked making money, and was always a hustler. In Grade 7, I learnt to handle a tractor and helped my brother-in-law to plough, earning Rs10 a day. As I got better, he paid me more. By Grade 9, I was already making Rs500 per day, but had to slow down to prepare for my exams. From an early age I knew I did not want a 9-5 job. There just wasn’t enough money in it. I wanted to get into business, and compared my brother who worked in the post office and what businessmen made. It did not help that my brother was honest, and never took bribes. A friend and I made money selling cheap Chinese phones at a premium to our friends. We blasted music on the phones and pretended that we were giving them a discount. After SLC, I started teaching math and other subjects. I was soon a shareholder in the same school and in the evening I was involved in our family’s floriculture business, growing amaranth and marigold for garlands.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250831020844_1b54b999d67122a50c4c7e6204cc737bcc99bf2a68db6499a4566a7f61a880b4.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250831020844_1b54b999d67122a50c4c7e6204cc737bcc99bf2a68db6499a4566a7f61a880b4" data-rendition-name="original" width="955" height="1314" loading="lazy" alt="Diaspora Diaries 72"> </figure>  It was then that a friend suggested we learn the Korean language. We could be earning significantly higher in Korea for similar efforts. I had no plans to go abroad but he convinced me. I did not know anything about Korea, and was scolded at the language institute when I asked someone to point Korea on the map.&nbsp; It was only there that I learnt you had to pass an exam for the Korean Employment Permit System (EPS), and pay for language classes. After a week, I decided it was not for me and dropped out. But my friend convinced me to give it one more try. I did not prepare much for the exam, and it was no surprise that I failed. But it was just by one mark, and people would pity me for failing “just by one mark”. It was a brand of failure. It hurt my ego. I had to turn things around by taking the exams seriously, and locked myself up to study hard.&nbsp; Even when we had visitors, my wife told them I was not home. If I was not in my room learning Korean, I would be with a group of ten of us test-takers comparing notes and practicing late into the night. The exam was difficult, but this time I passed, the only one in my group who did.&nbsp; As someone who never liked the idea of doing a job, I still had my doubts about going to Korea. It did not help that one of my acquaintances had returned a month after he had left, and he discouraged me from migrating given that I was already making good money in Nepal.&nbsp; But my wife suggested that I give it a shot since I had worked so hard for it. And if it really turned out not to be my cup of tea, I could always return. What did I have to lose, I thought, at least I would get to visit Korea. My job there was in an electrical company that made circuit boards. I worked all day, earned good money. In the evenings, I kept myself busy with my real estate business back in Nepal. I had learnt the tricks of the trade from fellow real estate agents back home, but at the time did not have the capital to invest.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250831020848_941e961e2045058f255ad89884b51faa7d2365c68236e5cbe573d63d769ac6c5.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250831020848_941e961e2045058f255ad89884b51faa7d2365c68236e5cbe573d63d769ac6c5" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Diaspora Diaries 72"> </figure>  In Korea, it helped that I had salary records that allowed me to get loans from financial institutions both in Korea and in Nepal. Ultimately, I started earning more from my real estate deals in Nepal than from my job in Korea. This was all thanks to my ability to take loans because of the EPS scheme. My wife has been managing the flower business while I was away. My finances grew stronger over the eight years I was in Korea. I paid off the loans that I had borrowed to buy land. But real estate did not satisfy me entirely. I wondered: what is my brand? What will I be known for? What is my contribution to society? Real estate is for wealth, but that is about it. I needed to sell one piece of land and use the revenue to start a venture. I took classes in business, and returned to Nepal six months ago and got back to my family’s ancestral roots in floriculture. In Nepal too, I am continuing the entrepreneurship training I had started in Korea with the Bridge International. Such exposure helps us reflect on our business such as our branding, vision, and proactive aspects like the importance of strong recordkeeping.&nbsp; I am now working to upgrade and expand my floriculture business. With a friend who is still in Korea I am building a cooling room to increase the shelf-life of flowers and other produce and set up a market in my village where others can sell their produce. Floriculture is our primary business, but it is seasonal and earns good money only during festivals like Tihar.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250831020848_a008ffeba13896e6918f68ff6e687c8fe11140d86a96f1ec11690547f2bcd415.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20250831020848_a008ffeba13896e6918f68ff6e687c8fe11140d86a96f1ec11690547f2bcd415" data-rendition-name="original" width="1280" height="720" loading="lazy" alt="Diaspora Diaries 72"> </figure>  So, I grow tomatoes to ensure year-round earnings. I also am engaged in other businesses like real estate and online shopping. I work round the clock in Nepal — a strong work ethic is something I picked up in Korea.&nbsp; My Korean bosses would work alongside us, that motivated us. I work just as hard in Nepal as I did in Korea. People here often ask me why I am pushing myself so hard. But making garlands comes easy to me, it is work my forebears were involved in. My childhood memories are about plucking flowers with my sister. I have a comparative advantage in this work. It comes naturally to me, it is easy and I enjoy it. And sometimes, if there are too many garlands to make, I can multitask while holding meetings. My fingers just fly. I am good at this job, but my wife is even better and faster.&nbsp; When there is too much load, we can also outsource the work. To be known as the flower guy would be great personal branding. The मखमली guy. Or the सयपत्री guy. I decided to come home for just this with a one-way ticket. “अब पासा: जाँदैन ल्हासा!” &nbsp;

developing-countries

Not poor, but not rich

Vaccine geo-politics and Sputnik-V

Vaccine geo-politics and Sputnik-V

A COVID-19 third wave in the Third World?

This is a test

The climate threat multiplier

Protest grows against Nepal’s social media ban

30 years after Baby Arun

Sex and the city of Patan

The flower guy