For decades, Nepal’s leaders have promised prosperity by harnessing ‘white oil’, the vast hydroelectricity potential of Himalayan rivers. So far, less than one-tenth of the 48,000MW of feasible hydropower has been exploited — nearly all from run-of-river schemes that do not store water, but use the energy of steep rapids. This results in an annual monsoon power glut, and power scarcity in the dry season as rivers run low. Dams to store water in large reservoirs would solve that problem and balance year-round electricity generation and water supply. Nepal’s only existing reservoir project is Kulekhani, a rock-filled dam built back in 1982 that impounded a 7km long lake called Indrasarovar near Kathmandu. The only second reservoir in Nepal is the 150m tall concrete dam here in Tanahu that stores water for 17 days and is scheduled for completion in 2026.&nbsp; Plans for other dams are stalled: Budi Gandaki (1,200MW) with a 280m high dam, West Seti (750MW), Sun Kosi II (1,110MW) and the mammoth Mahakali (Pancheshwar) Dam on the western border with India. Even bigger projects have been proposed, like the gigantic Karnali Dam at Chisapani (10,800MW) and the Kosi High Dam at Barachhetra in Sunsari.&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/dam-dangerous">Dam dangerous</a>, Ramesh Kumar  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024072005078_e9384b8a0ef56b30019f6f217a7b3536fed0fa7abdb495a20efdddb622bfbed7.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2024072005078_e9384b8a0ef56b30019f6f217a7b3536fed0fa7abdb495a20efdddb622bfbed7" data-rendition-name="original" width="3500" height="1970" loading="lazy" alt="Rivers be dammed NT"> <figcaption>Built in 1982, Kulekhani is the only reservoir project in Nepal today. Photos: PINKI SRIS RANA</figcaption> </figure>  “Except Kulekhani, all hydropower projects in Nepal are run-of-river which produce enough electricity during the peak monsoon season, but in winter there is no rain and during that time, we buy electricity at a costlier rate than we sell to India,” says former Water Resources Minister Dipak Gyawali.&nbsp; Gyawali reasons that storage hydropower will even out the seasonal imbalance of both the water and the electricity, and boost Nepal’s domestic economy.&nbsp; However, storage projects are more expensive because of construction, land acquisition and impact on food supply. But there is a way to reduce cost by ensuring that regulated water has multi-purpose benefits downstream for agriculture and for fisheries, water supply, or tourism, with electricity a byproduct. Hydropower developer Kumar Pandey agrees: “The widening of a reservoir project’s purpose broadens investment prospects from different sectors and helps minimise the energy cost.” However, Nepal will have to balance the economy’s growing demand for year-round clean energy with those dams damaging local livelihoods, riverine ecosystems, lowering food production and exposing expensive infrastructure to climate and seismic risk.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024072005078_524f39c49583df1fb201abf67995edcc1dc808dd7a1b499b247978a750c06c5e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="2024072005078_524f39c49583df1fb201abf67995edcc1dc808dd7a1b499b247978a750c06c5e" data-rendition-name="original" width="3500" height="2625" loading="lazy" alt="Rivers be dammed NT"> <figcaption>Construction site of the 140m high concrete dam on the Seti River that will impound a reservoir 18km long in Tanahu when the project is completed in 2026. </figcaption> </figure>  Industrialised countries are dismantling some of their dams to let their rivers flow free again. But Nepal is only now embarking on a dam-building spree for energy and regulated water.&nbsp; “Nepal’s need for electricity is still to be fulfilled, so dismantling dams is pretty far-fetched,” says Gyawali. “Rather than ‘no dams’, we should be pushing for ‘no bad dams’.” There are currently 167 licensed hydropower projects in Nepal whose installed capacity will reach 3,000MW this year. When 278 new projects that are under construction come on stream, electricity generation will exceed 10,000MW by 2030. Dams in Nepal tend to have shorter lifespans because Himalayan rivers have some of the highest sediment loads in the world. Making dams seismic resistant adds to their cost. On top of this, there are now added dangers of glacial lake outburst floods, extreme rainfall and landslide dammed river ruptures.&nbsp; Nepal’s rivers frequently suffer these disasters, the latest in 2021 in Melamchi and eastern Nepal last year that damaged hydropower infrastructure. But an example of catastrophic destruction was the October 2023 flood on Sikkim’s Teesta that destroyed the $1.2 billion Chungthang dam and other projects. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/missing-pieces-of-the-hydropower-jigsaw">Missing pieces of the hydropower jigsaw</a>, Sonia Awale&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024072005078_6495183f214ce73edf5b9ffe8a307f150b9a21d59b892c7b5ec46d6861a32a66.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="2024072005078_6495183f214ce73edf5b9ffe8a307f150b9a21d59b892c7b5ec46d6861a32a66" data-rendition-name="original" width="1750" height="1347" loading="lazy" alt="Rivers be dammed NT"> <figcaption>The 3D rendition on the Tanahu project dam.</figcaption> </figure>  “Climate change has drastically changed rainfall patterns, and we are yet to understand the impact on the hydropower projects,” says Kumar Pandey. “There can be many different factors that put dams at risk, but exaggerating the risks even before a project is started is fear-mongering.” Near Damauli, halfway between Kathmandu and Pokhara, the designers of the Tanahu dam say they have taken into account the Seti River’s origins in the glaciers of the Annapurna and its frequent floods.&nbsp; “We factor in the worst-case scenario and measure the probable maximum flood that could happen and tailor the structure to withstand the probable flood,” says acting project head Shyamji Bhandari at the project site near Damauli. Tanahu’s design includes flushing gates to minimise monsoon sedimentation to ensure longevity of the dam. Bhandari adds, “And if these measures aren’t enough and a calamity does strike, we also have an emergency siren system to warn downstream areas.” Nepal’s rivers are older than the Himalaya, and many of them start in China, cutting mighty gorges through the mountains, and flow down to join the Ganga in India before emptying into the delta in Bangladesh.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024072005078_f34e6ce2a703d568ea5ce69de3d75dd667838996f0a083673c78eb249c47fd0f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="2024072005078_f34e6ce2a703d568ea5ce69de3d75dd667838996f0a083673c78eb249c47fd0f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1330" height="882" loading="lazy" alt="Rivers be dammed NT"> </figure>  Rivers do not respect country boundaries, but hydropower projects are built within national jurisdictions. Nepal has had to navigate intricate geopolitics with its lower riparian neighbour India, and it has not always gone smoothly. Past projects like the Kosi and Gandaki that India built on the border 50 years ago are seen by many experts as being unfair to Nepal. More recently, New Delhi has refused to buy surplus electricity from hydropower projects in Nepal in which the Chinese are involved. Reservoirs in the Himalaya are going to be even more geopolitically sensitive because the climate crisis will make water a strategic commodity for India’s densely populated and increasingly prosperous Ganga plains. “Rivers are continuous with upstream-downstream linkages. Anything done on rivers in Nepal will have an impact downstream, which is why rivers should be studied in totality, and infrastructure designed keeping that in mind,” says water expert and author Ajaya Dixit.&nbsp; Storage dams in Nepal will regulate water on rivers flowing downstream, and if Nepal builds them with international loans India will benefit for free, while Nepal’s fertile and populated valleys are submerged. But for strategic reasons, India may want to have a say in Nepal’s plans to dam its rivers. An estimated<a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/321426715_Groundwater_resilience_Nepal_Preliminary_findings_from_a_case_study_in_the_Middle_Hills"> 70% of dry season flow</a> and 40% of annual discharge on the Ganga comes down from its tributaries in Nepal. It therefore makes sense for India and Nepal to plan for the future by regulating flow. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/balance-of-power">Balance of Power</a>, Sonia Awale  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024072005078_d26f93973f5687cbcde14e194a9f58979e94326dc612edc86221b97f55677790.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="2024072005078_d26f93973f5687cbcde14e194a9f58979e94326dc612edc86221b97f55677790" data-rendition-name="original" width="2250" height="1266" loading="lazy" alt="Rivers be dammed NT"> </figure>  The other consideration is ecological. Dams are even more disruptive on riverine ecosystems than run-of-river schemes, and destroy the habitat of Himalayan rivers which are havens for biodiversity. Some endangered fish, amphibian and bird species are found nowhere else on the planet.&nbsp; A 2018 Asian Development Bank report, Impact of Dams on Fish and Rivers in Nepal, found that hydropower projects did not use any tool to measure the possible impact on aquatic biodiversity. &nbsp; ‘Dams act as barriers for migratory movement of fish, in many cases, threatening species’ survival,’ the report stated. In northeastern Nepal, a local community in Lumba Sumba is lobbying internationally to crowdfund a campaign against a hydropower project on ancestral land in the Chhujung River valley that they say will also disturb the habitat of endangered snow leopards. How well Nepal’s planners can balance geopolitics, rising energy demand and economic growth with ecosystem protection and respect for human rights will be tested in the coming years, as the country embarks on a dam-building spree. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Displacing people to store water</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024072005078_2870cd71c55d84dd835d90b13a34235a0c477b525a2b78ec2b3a3b129e065a83.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="2024072005078_2870cd71c55d84dd835d90b13a34235a0c477b525a2b78ec2b3a3b129e065a83" data-rendition-name="original" width="2000" height="1333" loading="lazy" alt="Rivers be dammed NT"> <figcaption>The Tanahu project will inundate the house of Battimaya Biswakarma as well as those of her family members in Wangtangetar.</figcaption> </figure>  Nepal’s first reservoir project on the Kulekhani Khola was built in 1982 on a spring-fed stream near Kathmandu. The inundation displaced 3,500 people who were not adequately compensated. “Back then, people were naive and Kulekhani residents gave up their land without much discussion,” says Ram Kumar Shrestha, 59, whose family was among those who had to move. They are currently living on the outskirts of Markhu. His father, Jhamak Lal Shrestha was the village head during the absolute monarchy days. Residents of Kulekhani under consideration to be given land in Thori near the Indian border in Chitwan, but many were not happy. “It was too hot and there was danger from wild animals,” recalls the senior Shrestha, now 79. Some invested the compensation money on land elsewhere and did well, but others spent it on everyday expenses and were soon destitute. The compensation and resettlement plan for the Kulekhani displaced was ‘deeply flawed’ as per a report by researcher Jagdish Chandra Pokharel. And Nepal’s record for resettlement of people for infrastructure and national parks has not improved since then.&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/geopolitics-of-nepal-s-rivers">Geopolitics of Nepal’s rivers</a>, Ramesh Kumar Kulekhani’s history is being repeated in Tanahu. By the banks of the Seti River in the village of Badarkuna, cows and water buffaloes graze without a herder in sight amidst cement pillars with painted numbers.&nbsp; These are farms that belong to the people of Paltyang village, who cultivated fields by the river but lived up the mountain till as recently as three years ago.&nbsp; “Our ancestors lived in Paltyang because there was malaria down here in Badarkuna,” explains Til Bahadur Thapa, 64, who along with wife Sansasri worked the fields by the river and climbed back up to Paltyang just to sleep.&nbsp; The cement pillars on Thapa’s field mark the area that will be inundated by the Tanahu dam. After they were put up, the Thapas stopped farming here.&nbsp; Yam Kumari Thapa, 43, grew more than enough rice and maize in her fields near Fedi Khola, a tributary of Seti– that will soon be submerged. She sold the surplus in the market. Now, she is fighting for compensation for her land.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024072708078_bce072e5e7051cbbb995ed2763bca448927b576f14acdcc8e636755961642838.png" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="2024072708078_bce072e5e7051cbbb995ed2763bca448927b576f14acdcc8e636755961642838" data-rendition-name="original" width="1920" height="1080" loading="lazy" alt="Building dams"> </figure>  A little above Badarkuna is a Dalit settlement that will also soon be underwater. The land is undocumented, and this means compensation from the project will be complicated for the 12 families here.&nbsp; “We know that electricity is important and we are not against development,” says Battimaya Biswakarma of the Dalit settlement of Wangtangetar. “All we are asking for is a place to live like we were living here.” The Tanahu project has affected 560 households but 41 households are fighting for land compensation. How the Tanahu project compensates them will set a &nbsp;precedent for other even bigger reservoir projects being planned, like Budi Gandaki which will displace 3,560 households and Sun Kosi II which will affect 15,000 people. “Hydropower is built on rivers and water is a socially required resource which is why the development of dams brings out a lot of local social and environmental issues,” explains hydropower developer Kumar Pandey. &nbsp; Run-of-river projects are at high risk from floods, but relatively benign because unlike reservoirs, they do not displace too many people and submerge fertile farmlands.&nbsp; Some experts say Nepal should not be investing in colossal projects like the $1.3 billion Upper Arun in northeastern Nepal directly under mountains that will be vulnerable to glacial lake outburst floods, and instead prioritise smaller schemes and spread the risk. “Smaller run-of-river projects require much less area while mega storage projects submerge huge tracts of farmland and displace people, making the financial and social cost heavier,” says Jagdish Chandra Pokharel, author of the Kulekhani report and former chair of the National Planning Commission.&nbsp; However, the need for a year-round balance of electricity and water supply is forcing Nepal’s planners to look at the larger picture and opt for big reservoir projects.&nbsp; Til Bahadur Thapa looks below at his fields on the banks of Seti River that his ancestors have farmed for generations but will now be submerged by the Tanahu reservoir. He says simply, “A country cannot develop by driving people like us off the land.” &nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/saving-the-waters-of-life">Saving the waters of life</a>, Mohan Mainali

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Rivers be dammed

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108151116/636a65199c7e80680e059911jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>HIGH AND DRY: A village in Mustang is one of the increasing number of settlements that have been abandoned because of water shortage caused by climate change. Photo : GOPEN RAI</figcaption></figure>In the past, Nepalis have migrated to India for seasonal labour and military recruitment. Today they fly overseas for work. Tomorrow they may have to migrate in increasing numbers because of climate-induced disasters.But the reason for migrating remains the same: <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/recharging-the-mountains-" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reliance of Nepal’s farmers on rain-fed agriculture</a>, which leaves them vulnerable to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/where-is-the-monsoon-this-year/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">erratic monsoons</a>. And as extreme weather events become more frequent due to the climate emergency, more and more Nepalis may be forced to move out.Read also:<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=37135&amp;preview_nonce=066ab9802a&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Migration mitigation,</a> Editorial<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=37197&amp;preview_nonce=e98b9c3c62&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Women in climate hot spots face challenges adapting, Marty Logan</a>Already, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-damage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">climate change</a> is causing more frequent <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-waste-land/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">droughts</a>, flash floods and rising temperatures, reducing crop yields across Nepal. Climate change has lowered the water table and dried natural springs, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">snowline has receded across the Himalaya</a>, and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/climate-for-change/the-great-himalayan-thaw/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">glaciers are retreating dramatically</a>.The shortage of water is already <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/high-and-dry-upper-mustang" target="_blank" rel="noopener">forcing entire villages to relocate</a>, and the situation is expected to worsen in the next few decades as the dry season flow from snow-fed rivers declines because little ice remains to melt.Nepalis have been migrating for centuries to escape <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-great-income-divide/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">poverty</a>, indebtedness and monsoon failures. All these push factors have now been magnified by climate-related hazards, and are already resulting in increased mobility.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/clock-starts-ticking-at-cop-25/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Clock starts ticking at COP25</a>, Josie Wang<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-carbon-footprint-of-tourism/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The carbon footprint of tourism</a>“We are witnessing a rapid rise in temperature and a resulting climate shift. But <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/recharging-the-mountains-" target="_blank" rel="noopener">people in rural mountainous</a> and coastal areas have not been able to adapt to these changes, forcing them to move,” explained climate expert Manjeet Dhakal, who is in Madrid for the United Nations climate summit, COP25, citing the example of pastoralists relocating in Mustang district because of prolonged drought.Scientists have had to revise estimates of the rate of global warming because the impact is being felt much earlier than expected, with <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-on-the-heat/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">heat waves</a>, larger forest fires, more intense storms, unseasonal blizzards and extreme rainfall events. The past decade was the hottest ever on record, Europe saw its hottest ever June this year, sub-Saharan Africa experienced unprecedented drought, while Cyclone Fani triggered the evacuation and displacement of 3.5 million people in Bangladesh and India in May.Here in Nepal, over 80,000 people were infected with <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/mosquitoes-move-up-mountains-as-the-earth-warms/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">dengue this monsoon</a> in an unprecedented outbreak that scientists said was exacerbated by a warming climate. Bara district recorded <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/groound-zero-in-pheta/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a rare tornado</a> that killed 80 people, and razed villages. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/flood-of-recrimination/">Floods in the Tarai</a> are <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-villages-learn-to-cope-with-climate-crisis/">getting worse every year</a>.“There are many reasons for people to migrate, but the additional stress from the risks of increased floods and droughts, or changes in farming or water supply, may just push people’s decision past the tipping point,” said David Molden, director of the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD). “For others, there may be no choice but to migrate if a water source is lost, or the damage from floods or droughts is too great.”Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-third-pole-is-warming-faster-than-expected/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Third Pole is warming faster than expected</a>, Kunda Dixit<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Terrifying assessment of a Himalayan melting</a>, Kunda Dixit Migration usually begins as a temporary response, but many people have had to relocate permanently or have been displaced. Millions of climate refugees are moving across borders. Human mobility of any kind in the face of the changing climate will have an enduring impact on societies and economies.“When some members of a family migrate, the country’s dependence on remittance will increase. When entire families migrate, the country will lose a major portion of its labour force. Eventually, dependence on remittance and a shrinking labour force will inhibit the economy,” said Dhakal.As far back as 1990, the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned that the single greatest impact of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/weather-warning-for-climate-meeting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">climate change</a> would be on human migration. Now, experts are saying there may be 200 million climate refugees worldwide by 2050. By then, 42 million Bangladeshis and 36 million people in coastal India will have to relocate because of rising sea levels.A recent Oxfam report named climate change-fuelled disasters as the number one driver of internal displacement over the last decade, having forced more than 20 million people to leave their homes annually.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-climax/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate climax</a>, Editorial<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-damage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate damage</a>, Editorial“If the current development pathway and governance persists, human mobility upheaval will have huge humanitarian and social costs. We in Nepal may not remain immune to this disruption even though we are landlocked,” says water expert Ajaya Dixit.Following the 2015 Paris Agreement, the executive committee of the Warsaw International Mechanism established a task force on displacement to develop recommendations to avert, minimise and address displacement due to climate change. Agencies, including the International Organisation for Migration, are building support for the second phase of the task force in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/clock-starts-ticking-at-cop-25/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Madrid this week</a>.Climate migration is also being discussed in 25 panels and events at COP25. With a rising backlash against migrants and refugees worldwide, it is likely that climate change impacts will cascade, stretching institutional capacity and governance and increasing the cost of adaptation. As displaced people move onto other people’s land, political confrontation and conflict between native populations and migrants can result.Governments represented in Madrid need to devise policies not just to reduce emissions, but to deal with the political, cultural and economic fallout of climate migration.Says Dixit: “The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-climax/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">climate crisis</a> poses an existential threat. Let us hope human ingenuity and collective wisdom will prevail to begin much needed transformative action.”

Sonia Awale

Nepal must prepare for climate migration

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108151116/636a65169c7e80680e059910jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>SHOULDERING THE BURDEN: The workload for women like Nanimaya Dhungana in Kavre (Above) may have increased because of the climate crisis. Photo: KUMAR ACHARYA</figcaption></figure>Women in Asia and Africa hardest hit <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-climax/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">by climate change</a> have a tough time adapting to the climate emergency, even with support from family or the state, finds a new study. The results raise questions for global agreements designed to help people adapt to the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-damage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">climate emergency</a>, it adds.The findings are based on 25 case studies in three agro-ecological regions on the two continents: 14 in semi-arid locales, 6 in mountains and glacier-fed river basins (including one in Nepal) and 5 in deltas. The main livelihoods in these natural resource-dependent areas include agriculture, livestock rearing and fishing, supplemented by wage labour, petty trade and <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/doubts-on-zero-cost-migration-deal-coming-into-force,2157" target="_blank" rel="noopener">income from remittances</a>.Environmental risks include <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-waste-land/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">droughts</a>, floods, rainfall variability, land erosion and landslides, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/on-thin-ice-in-the-khumbu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">glacial lake outburst floods</a><a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-on-the-heat/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">, heat waves</a> and cyclones, all of which negatively affect livelihoods. The study, A Qualitative Comparative Analysis of Women’s Agency and Adaptive Capacity in Climate Change Hotspots in Asia and Africa was published in the journal Nature Climate Change.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=37135&amp;preview_nonce=066ab9802a&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Migration mitigation, Editorial</a><a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=37206&amp;preview_nonce=9067429ee4&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal must prepare for climate migration,</a> Sonia AwaleIt found that when households take steps to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-climate-threat-multiplier/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">adapt to the impact of climate change</a>, the result is that the strategies ‘place increasing responsibilities and burdens on women, especially those who are young, less educated and belonging to lower classes or marginal castes and ethnicities’. This occurred even in cases where support appeared to be available in the form of families/communities or via the state.Examples include when men migrate to find work because of climate change-induced impacts at home. While the money they earn can boost family incomes, when men are away <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/recharging-the-mountains-" target="_blank" rel="noopener">women must shoulder a larger burden</a>. As a result, most women ‘reported reduced leisure time, with negative consequences on their wellbeing, including the health and nutrition of themselves and their households,’ says the report.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/clock-starts-ticking-at-cop-25/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Clock starts ticking at COP25</a>, Josie Wang<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-carbon-footprint-of-tourism/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The carbon footprint of tourism</a>In other cases, governments stepped in with support but during floods or droughts, for example, men dominated state-provided aid and relief facilities, making women rely on their male relatives to receive support.‘In a sense, women do have voice and agency, yet this is not contributing to strengthening longer-term adaptive capacities,’ concludes the report.But in three examples in the study, one in Nepal, women did adapt to the increased burdens delivered by climate change. In Chharghare of Nuwakot district, support from a well-established cooperative enabled many women — excluding Dailit women — to switch from raising buffalo and cattle to rearing goats, which adapted better to growing rain scarcity.“By enhancing women’s agency, we need to understand that we are helping them to create an enabling environment where a women’s right to make decisions about her own life is recognised, where women are economically empowered and free from all forms of discrimination and violence,” said Anjal Prakash, who worked on the case study for the Integrated Centre for Mountain Development (ICIMOD).Poverty is the main factor in the declining decision-making power of women in some hot spots, says the report, even when women share responsibilities in the family and work outside of the home. In semi-arid Kenya, for example, women of female-headed households sell alcohol to earn money to pay for children’s schooling, but this exposes them to health risks, such as engaging in sexual activities with their clients.Read also: <a href="https://www.google.com/url?client=internal-element-cse&amp;cx=011870630917993763279:opm7uqsat-4&amp;q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/Recharging-the-mountains-kavre&amp;sa=U&amp;ved=2ahUKEwjrk7jMyZ7mAhVSzTgGHXMsCPkQFjAAegQIBhAB&amp;usg=AOvVaw0Hk35TvXLe8RkYPj4gjG58">Recharging the mountains</a>, Sonia AwaleA 35-year-old woman told researchers, “Despite our efforts, there is a high level of malnutrition here. We can’t afford meat, we just eat rice and potatoes, but even for this, the quantity is not enough.”The study notes that international agreements, such as the gender action plan of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) require information about what builds the adaptive capacity of women, and men, so that agreements can support sustainable, equitable and effective adaptation.It suggests that effective social protection, like the universal public distribution system for cereals in India, or pensions and social grants in Namibia, could contribute to relieving immediate pressures on survival.‘This however cannot always be done on the “cheap” — investments are needed to enable better and more sustainable management of resources. ‘Women’s self-help groups are often presented as solutions, yet they are confronted by the lack of resources, skills and capacity to help their members effectively meet the challenges they confront,’ the report adds.

Marty Logan

Women in climate hot spots face challenges adapting

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108151116/636a64c19c7e80680e0598f5jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1047"/><figcaption>Photo: GOPEN RAI</figcaption></figure>In the strict legalese that the United Nations is accustomed to, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/clock-starts-ticking-at-cop-25/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Madrid Climate Summit</a> is called the 25th Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). We will call it COP25 for short. After riots engulfed Santiago in Chile, the venue was shifted to Madrid — just as well because that reduced the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-carbon-footprint-of-tourism/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">carbon footprint</a> of the gathering.COP25 comes at a time when scientists have warned that the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/weather-warning-for-climate-meeting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">goals of the Paris Agreement of 2015 are outdated</a>, and the targets for <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/decarbonise-now/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">curbing carbon emissions</a> need to be revised. Erratic weather, the melting of polar ice-caps, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/">glaciers shrinking in the Himalaya</a> and other climate-induced changes that scientists expected to happen in 2030 are already taking place.Read also: <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=37206&amp;preview_nonce=9067429ee4&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal must prepare for climate migration,</a> Sonia Awale<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=37197&amp;preview_nonce=e98b9c3c62&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Women in climate hot spots face challenges adapting,</a> Marty LoganThe reason: carbon emissions are going up instead of down. The CO2 concentration in the atmosphere crossed 408 parts per million last week — several orders of magnitude higher than before the industrial revolution, when it never rose above 300.Just to put it in perspective, all the changes we see happening around the world due to global warming have been set off by a temperature rise of only 1oC since human society started <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/from-a-fossil-past-to-an-electric-future/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">burning fossil fuels</a> like coal. Yet, in the best-case scenario global average temperature is set to rise by at least 2oC in the next 30 years.In its Emissions Gap Report 2019 last week, the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) warned that countries need to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 7.6% a year between 2020 and 2030 in order to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-climax/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cap temperature increase at 1.5oC</a>, as agreed in Paris. But the US has pulled out of the Paris Agreement, and major emitters of carbon dioxide have not reduced their emissions as agreed. To meet the Paris targets, greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut by 40% by 2030 and countries need to become carbon neutral by 2050.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/clock-starts-ticking-at-cop-25/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Clock starts ticking at COP25</a>, Josie Wang<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-carbon-footprint-of-tourism/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The carbon footprint of tourism</a>COP25’s motto is ‘Time To Act’, and it is hoped the 50 heads of state attending the meeting will do just that. Environmental activists are holding a parallel ‘Social Summit for Climate’ to pressure governments to not backtrack on commitments. Yet, conspicuous by their absence in Madrid are US President Donald Trump, Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro. Together they represent more than half the total emissions of greenhouse gases worldwide today.Scientists have painted an apocalyptic picture of what will happen if the world fails to act. Rising global temperatures will lead to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-on-the-heat/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">heat stress</a>, falling <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/ipcc-report-and-nepals-food-security/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">food production</a>, continental-scale forest fires, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/climate-for-change/the-great-himalayan-thaw/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">receding icecaps</a> and rising sea levels. All these slow-onset disasters will have an impact on food production and human habitation, forcing tens of millions to relocate. The climate crisis is already leading indirectly to political instability and conflict, which in turn adds to migration pressure.Aside from all the other changes like <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/between-existence-and-extinction-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">mass extinction of species</a> and collapse of natural ecosystems, it is migration that will have the most profound impact on human society. Some of these challenges are supposed to be discussed this week in Madrid, as delegations deliberate on the nexus between <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-waste-land/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">climate and migration</a>. The UNFCCC’s task force on displacement will present its report, and rich countries will also have to fund the under-pledged $100 billion Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-third-pole-is-warming-faster-than-expected/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Third Pole is warming faster than expected</a>, Kunda Dixit<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Terrifying assessment of a Himalayan melting</a>, Kunda Dixit To be sure, humans have been migrating throughout history, forced to move due to natural climate cycles or the advance of the Ice Age. However, this is the first time they will be migrating because of human-induced changes to the climate.People migrate due to sudden disasters like cyclones, floods, wildfires or droughts. But they will also <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/high-and-dry-upper-mustang" target="_blank" rel="noopener">relocate because of slow-onset changes</a> like sea-level rise and erratic rainfall patterns. The lesson of the past two years is that slow-onset is not so slow anymore.The world has reached a tipping point, where small quantitative changes have created larger non-linear irreversible movement of people. This poses huge implications for politics and security.People are <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/recharging-the-mountains-" target="_blank" rel="noopener">leaving the mountains</a> due to landslides and floods, drylands because of water stress and coastal areas due to sea-level rise. Their destinations are overcrowded urban areas where they are even more vulnerable. A sign of things to come was Cyclone Fani, which forced 3.5 million people in India to be displaced earlier this year.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-climax/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate climax</a>, Editorial<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-damage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate damage</a>, EditorialThe World Bank estimates that by 2050, nearly 150 million people in South and Southeast Asia may become climate refugees. Sea level rise alone is expected to displace 50 million people from Bangladesh and India.Unless Nepal’s subsistence farmers get irrigation and other support to survive erratic monsoons, they will have no choice but to move. As our reports this week show, outmigration of Nepalis is now increasing, partly due to climate change. With the men gone, women are left to cope with the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-damage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">impacts of the climate emergency</a> on their own.Nepal also needs to do much more to reduce petroleum demand — not just to save the planet but also to save its own economy.In the end, it all boils down to vision and governance to recognise the climate crisis and be ready for its effects. Being unprepared will be much more costly in the long run.<h2>10 years ago</h2>As world leaders gather in Madrid this week for the Climate Summit, it is interesting to note that exactly 10 years ago this week <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/479" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepali Times #479</a> was discussing the Copenhagen Climate Summit of 2009. Excerpt from an editorial from 4-10 December 2009:‘The people in the mountains of Nepal do not know that the futures of their children and grandchildren are tied up with how the international climate change conference next week in Copenhagen goes.Will the rich countries agree to cut back to 40% of 1990 emissions in the next 10 years (which scientists warn is needed to keep the average rise of global temperatures to within two degrees Celsius) or will they stall at the 13% the Americans say is as far as they can go?<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108151116/636a64c49c7e80680e0598f6jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="329" height="500">The Copenhagen meet will also reveal whether the rich countries are actually willing to help developing countries make the switch from fossil fuel to renewables, and whether they will help to fund adaptation measures so the world’s poor can cope with rising sea levels and receding snowlines.'

MIGRATION  MITIGATION

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108141116/636a56c29c7e80680e0547a2jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1000" height="959"/><figcaption>Photo: TARAGAON MESUEM</figcaption></figure>Surrounded by overwhelmingly large ‘Sale’ signs is a tiny object in a large hall. Ang Tsherin Sherpa’s golden statue of a Tibetan deity in underwear is literally the object in focus at an exhibition at Taragaon Museum this week, part of the ‘Object in Focus’ series, designed to give viewers the opportunity to understand art in depth.“When we are surrounded by many exhibits, we often cannot digest what it all means. So this is our effort to delve deep into an important piece of art,” says museum curator Roshan Mishra. US-based Nepali artist Sherpa is the third artist featured in the series.Sherpa’s statue presents many interesting facets to explore: its face, hair and headgear are those of a Tibetan Buddhist deity. But instead of wearing the usual finery, it is attired like a modern superhero, and poses with one arm thrown in the air, Superman style.This piece ‘…and the winner is’ is a replica of Sherpa’s 2D work Victory in Spirit, but the actual metal casting was carried out by Shyam Maharjan, a traditional craftsman from Kathmandu.Read also: <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/The-world-beyond-thangkas,3139" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The world beyond thangkas</a>, Smriti BasnetSherpa’s work carries on his previous tradition of mixing traditional and modern art. Coming from a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-craft-of-art/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">family of renowned thangka painters</a>, Sherpa himself trained as a painter from the age of 13, and worked with his father on murals and monasteries for almost 20 years. He migrated to the US and painted there, also giving classes on traditional painting. That was when western art motifs began to infiltrate his work.Sherpa’s later works have depicted ancient deities caught in the modern world: gods in non-traditional poses, wearing western outfits, trying to break out of little boxes, shuttered inside claustrophobic modern motifs and trying to be heard amid the cacophony.The 3D work at Taragaon Museum fits this mould, but Sherpa does not want to talk about what it means. “To me, the pose symbolises a subjugation of negativity, it’s about hope,” he said at an interaction at the museum. “But I don’t want to attribute a particular significance to it. I would rather let viewers explore their imagination.”Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/review/us-nepali-art/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">US-Nepali Art</a>, Sonia AwaleInstead, Sherpa wants to talk about traditional art and his role in promoting it. “I used to work for months on a thangka piece, but then clients would ask why they should pay $3,000 for it when they can get a thangka for $200. The ordinary customer does not know the difference between real traditional art and souvenir art. Artists often fall prey to these market forces and are forced to compromise on quality,” he says.“That leads me to question what will happen to this art form 50 years down the line. Will we have any masters left, or only souvenir artists?” asks Sherpa.In an effort to promote traditional art, Sherpa visited many museums in the west and spoke to many curators. He found that they too had been desensitised by the flux of copies, and were unable to tell the difference between quality art and mediocre art. Sherpa then decided to contribute in his own way to get more recognition for traditional art.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-craft-of-art/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The craft of art</a>, Sewa BhattaraiHe returned to Nepal after the 2015 earthquake, and has since been trying to serve as a bridge between traditional artists and the modern, western art world. For this exhibit, he sought out Shyam Maharjan, renowned for casting religious figures. “I did have to convince him to take up my unconventional work, by showing him photos of myself being blessed by several rinpoches,” laughs Sherpa. “But this is a way of highlighting high quality traditional metal casting as well, when this statue is exhibited abroad.”Taragaon’s Roshan Mishra also raised the question of ownership about pieces of art like this one: while the metal craftsman is the one who makes the physical object, the art is usually attributed to the designer who conceptualises it. For his part, Maharjan is glad that the statue came out so well.“Many religious teachers have complimented me on my work, and I know I am a good craftsman. I am happy to see that even this unconventional design looks so good,” he says.Though his work veers far from his traditional roots, Sherpa contends that he has a deep respect for traditional arts, and aims to put more focus on them. “We don’t have an infrastructure to support traditional artists, due to which it is dying out. Through my work I want to open up a conversation about how to best address this,” he says.Sherpa has sometimes been accused of ‘sacrilege’ but the art world has welcomed his work as a breath of fresh air. “Thanks to the artist for this diabolical piece,” says Sangeeta Thapa, founder of Siddhartha Art Gallery. “We always see the same deities everywhere and wonder why artists don’t experiment.”Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepali-art-going-places/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepali art going places</a>, Kunda Dixit Object in Focus 3rd Edition3-13 SeptemberTaragaon Museum, Bouddha

God and Superman

India and Pakistan are twins separated at birth. Tensions between them have been at a hair trigger ever since independence and has erupted into full scale conflict at least four times in the past 80 years.
The 22 April terrorist attack in Kashmir that killed 25 Indian tourists and a Nepali citizen, threatens to escalate tension between the two nuclear-armed nations. India has squarely blamed Pakistan for the attacks, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has given his military “operational freedom” to respond. Pakistan has said it has credible intelligence of an Indian military strike and its officials have promised a “full spectrum” response — a code for a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/thinking-the-thinkable">nuclear retaliation</a>.
For Nepal, the killing of its national in the Pahalgam attack comes as another stark reminder that in conflicts from Afghanistan to Iraq, from <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/how-to-agree-an-armistice-in-ukraine">Ukraine</a> to Israel, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/10-nepalis-from-one-town-fighting-in-ukraine">Nepalis are getting caught in the crossfire</a>. The last time full-scale fighting broke out between <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/peacemongers-at-india-pakistan-border">India and Pakistan</a> on Kargil in 1999, at least 22<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/india-s-trial-by-fire-for-soldiers-from-nepal?%27%5C%22="> Nepalis fighting for the Indian Army</a> were killed in action.
Three of Nepal’s immediate neighbours (China, India, Pakistan) have nuclear weapons, and they do not have good relations. With China supplying weapons, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/war-and-warming">missile technology</a> and other support to Pakistan, this triangular friction could set off a regional conflagration.&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00573-0" target="_blank">Research at Rutgers University</a> has calculated that even a week-long tactical nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan would throw up so much smoke and debris into the atmosphere that it would block out the sun for years, and lead to a collapse of the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/grow-nourish-sustain-together-world-food-day">global food system</a>. This does not take into account the radioactive fallout that prevailing winds would blow up to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lives-on-the-line-in-the-himalaya">the Himalaya</a>, contaminating glaciers that are the sources of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/saving-what-is-left-of-himalayan-rivers">Asia’s main rivers</a>.
The impact of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/climate-breakdown-linked-to-thame-flood">climate breakdown </a>on High Asia was already ringing alarm bells about its <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/himalayan-icecap-melting-faster-than-thought">shrinking ice cap</a> reducing the dry season flow of water downstream. Water was going to be the next strategic commodity, geopolitical experts warned, and the next wars in Asia would be over water.
That water war is already happening. India retaliated to the Kashmir attack by suspending the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/24/world/asia/india-pakistan-indus-waters-treaty.html" target="_blank">Indus Waters Treaty</a> of 1960 mediated by the World Bank that has withstood at least three wars between India and Pakistan. The treaty gives India control over the three eastern tributaries of the Indus (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beas_River" target="_blank">Beas</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ravi_River" target="_blank">Ravi</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sutlej" target="_blank">Sutlej</a>), while Pakistan got water from the Indus and two of its western tributaries (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indus_River" target="_blank">Indus</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chenab_River" target="_blank">Chenab</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jhelum_River" target="_blank">Jhelum</a>.
Pakistan was assured of 70% of the annual flow, and India could use a reasonable amount of water for<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=15231"> irrigation and hydropower</a>. &nbsp;Within days of its threat, India stopped water flowing down to Pakistan from the Chenab river and is reportedly preparing to do the same on the Jhelum.
The sabre-rattling has reached a crescendo. Besides threats and counter-threats there are also symbolic drills, with the Indian Air Force practicing landing on an expressway in Uttar Pradesh by its Rafale, Su-30 and Jaguar fighter jets to demonstrate ‘operational readiness’. In response Pakistan test-fired its Abdali ballistic missile that can carry a nuclear warhead and has a range of 450km.&nbsp;
The danger is that with ultra-nationalist rhetoric and the beating the war drums by both sides, India’s government and Pakistan’s military may have to ‘do something’ to appease domestic public opinion. But any tactical strike, an artillery exchange, or territorial incursion could quickly escalate out of control.
Expecting an Indian retaliation for the Pahalgam killings, Pakistan is using<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/interfaith-collaboration-for-nuclear-disarmament"> nuclear deterrence </a>and warning of “catastrophic consequences”. The two neighbours came close to a nuclear exchange in 2019 after an attack on the Indian military in Kashmir, and prompt international intervention led by the United States cooled tensions.&nbsp;
This time, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/trump-shock-wave-hits-nepal">Trump administration</a> is too distracted and not as engaged. Pakistan has denied it was responsible for the terrorist attack and called on Washington to stop a possible Indian retaliation. India and Pakistan have stopped overflights by each other’s airlines, and some international carriers have even stopped flying over Pakistan fearing an air war.
Washington, Beijing, the UN and the EU have all urged restraint. Iran, which has good relations with both India and Pakistan has sent its foreign minister to urge both countries not to go into a tit-for-tat war. Iran has its own nuclear flashpoint to worry about with tensions in Israel, &nbsp;Yemen and Syria.
India and Pakistan both share similar problems of joblessness, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/why-nepal-s-poverty-rate-is-stuck">poverty </a>and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/climate-change-new-threat-to-nepal-s-rhinos">environmental threats</a>. Neither side needs the threat of a senseless war, and we in the neighbourhood do not need it either.&nbsp;
Kunda Dixit
This Editorial is brought to you by <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/" target="_blank">Nepali Times</a>, in collaboration with <a href="https://inpsjapan.com/en/" target="_blank">INPS Japan</a> and <a href="https://sgi-peace.org/" target="_blank">Soka Gakkai International</a>, in consultative status with UN ECOSOC.

Nukes in the neighbourhood

The streets of Patan are alive this month with lavender jacaranda trees under rain-washed skies as <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/the-red-god-rises-again-in-patan">the chariot of Rato Matsyendranath</a> is pulled across town. This is the festival of the rain god, and inevitably the heavens opened up and pre-monsoon showers pelted the chariot as it started being pulled in Pulchok last week. Thousands of devotees, onlookers and the chariot procession organisers thronged the streets on the first day last week. The rhythmic cymbals and drums exuded a vibrant energy as the enormous four wheels turned and the chariot lurched.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025051007050_81df97744db16f732a419dc1f1579d235ce3df37642b078f50b83bd4bd026688.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2025051007050_81df97744db16f732a419dc1f1579d235ce3df37642b078f50b83bd4bd026688" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1503" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  The<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/Red-rain-god,3141"> red rain god</a> has Hindu and Buddhist antecedents, alternatively called Bungadya and<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/kathmandu-s-gravity-defying-chariot-festival"> Karunamaya</a> — reflecting Kathmandu Valley’s syncretic mixture of the two religions.&nbsp; “Bungadya is a profoundly <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/12-full-opinion/marketing-the-intangible">intangible form of heritage</a>,” explains heritage expert Monalisa Maharjan. “It embodies traditional knowledge,<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/reviving-nepal-s-craft"> artisanal skills passed down through generations</a>. Local communities and specific families have specified roles in being custodians of the heritage, ensuring their survival over the centuries.” There are many legends and stories about this annual tradition. Lichhavi king Narendra Dev is supposed to have brought Rato Matsyendranath from Assam to Kathmandu Valley to convince Guru Gorakhnath to lift a spell that created a two-year drought in Kathmandu.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250510050520_347a9a398f8a9abc4a7fb4e2774fde8264cccbdce8bdab23851ab3f0e73c3e8a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20250510050520_347a9a398f8a9abc4a7fb4e2774fde8264cccbdce8bdab23851ab3f0e73c3e8a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1503" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  Matsyendranath was Gorakhnath’s mentor, and upon seeing him, the serpents were released, unleashing the rains. The chariot festival honours the return of this life-giving rain. The deity is seen as an icon for thriving agriculture, t<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon">he arrival of monsoon</a> showers, and the welfare of the community. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-reign-of-the-god-of-rain">The reign of the god of rain</a>, Vidhu Prakash Kayastha Till this day, the Rato Matsyendranath festival is no ordinary celebration. Patan does not sleep for a month as the chariot is pulled through various neighbourhoods. It unfolds at a state level with the president (formerly the king) attending the climax of the Bhoto Jatra in Jawalakhel later this month.&nbsp; The intergenerational transmission of tradition is unique in the world, and the reason the festival is one of the most vibrant cultural expressions that thrives despite inroads of modernity. The other unique aspect is that it is a transnational festival, binding Patan with Guwahati in the Indian state of Assam.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025051005058_8bc685ada13045d863b28e3eed91c931da2b510714586af6fd7eb5d1e298a24a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="2025051005058_8bc685ada13045d863b28e3eed91c931da2b510714586af6fd7eb5d1e298a24a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1503" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  “Unlike Nepal, where the deity commands grandeur and devotion, many in Assam are unaware of Rato Matsyendranath,” says Khagen Sharma of Gauhati University, which convened <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-assam-connection-revived">a symposium in February in Guwahati on the rain god</a>. Attending was a delegation led by Lalitpur Mayor Chiribabu Maharjan, organisers of the festival, and builders of the chariot. After the symposium, a committee was formed to explore and revive the tradition in Assam as well. Although the team had planned to visit Nepal this month, logistical challenges delayed the trip. Still, there are plans to build a Guru Matsyendranath statue in Assam to reestablish regular worship practices in the Guwahati shrine.&nbsp; The vines used to build the chariot in Patan are sourced from the jungles of Assam. But Sharma notes that in recent years unclear regulations have blocked the official import of the vines, although they are still brought to Nepal informally. The <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/makers-of-machhindranath,2204">chariot making</a> has also had a taste of modernisation in recent times. In the past, even a single nail or piece of steel was avoided. But over time, the wooden structure, particularly the shaft between the wheels, has been replaced with bronze. When that too proved unstable, metal clamps were introduced, which have become a pragmatic compromise.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250510050524_b2a819a5791612f14c81d30fc393dbd3f99f0c64b90a9110e8b0855d944bfa93.jpg" data-media-id="editor_12" data-image-id="20250510050524_b2a819a5791612f14c81d30fc393dbd3f99f0c64b90a9110e8b0855d944bfa93" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="998" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  Another welcome change is the focus on safety. Builders climbing the chariot’s tower now wear harnesses and there are efforts in crowd control. The most visible change in recent years has been the involvement of Patan’s enthusiastic youth in the festival — the tradition is now passing to a new generation. Says Matsyendranath expert Vidhu Kayastha: “There is more energy, the young people in red t-shirts this year were very organised, these modern touches aren’t diluting our culture, they’re keeping it alive in new forms.” He adds, “We are <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/searching-for-a-homeland-away-from-home">reconnecting with our roots</a>, we have more resources, more awareness than ever before. We must not be swept away by western values that may not serve us, and in some ways, cause more harm than good. We must revive our own culture.”&nbsp;

Divine chariot

In 2025, two seemingly disconnected acts of violence shattered the illusion of stability in the region. In March, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/16f7f947-1e96-4206-9844-891378adc683" target="_blank">militants hijacked a passenger train</a> near the Bolan Pass in Balochistan, executing soldiers in cold blood. A month later, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/world/asia/kashmir-terrorist-attack.html" target="_blank">gunmen in Kashmir’s</a> Pahalgam Valley massacred tourists. 
In both Islamabad and New Delhi, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/4/25/were-cursed-kashmiris-under-attack-across-india-after-pahalgam-killings" target="_blank">the reaction was reflexive:</a> condemn the violence, <a href="https://www.economist.com/asia/2025/04/22/india-and-pakistan-could-come-to-blows-over-kashmir" target="_blank">blame external enemies</a>, declare the situation contained. But South Asia’s leaders are not fighting terrorists alone. They are fighting the consequences of their own betrayals.
Across <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26272897" target="_blank">Balochistan</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-south-asia-11693674" target="_blank">Kashmir</a>, <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-asia/india/346-finding-way-out-festering-conflict-indias-manipur" target="_blank">Manipur</a>, and beyond, decades of <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/projects/enforced-disappearance-in-south-asia/" target="_blank">enforced disappearances</a>, broken promises, and brute militarisation have hollowed out the social contracts meant to hold these nations together. The grievances that drove rebellions from the 1940s through the 1990s – demands for dignity, recognition, and political agency – were never meaningfully addressed. They were buried beneath asphalt and propaganda, paved over by development projects and security checkpoints.
States may claim victory. But their victories are mirages, dissolving the moment anyone looks too closely. South Asia’s unfinished wars are not relics of a violent past. They are live ammunition, loaded into the future.
<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/24/he-only-wanted-revenge-the-bloody-insurgency-in-balochistan-gaining-lethal-momentum" target="_blank">Balochistan</a> has been at war with Pakistan for most of its modern history. Rich in gas, minerals, and coastline, the province has been plundered for decades under the language of national development. 
Projects like the <a href="https://eastasiaforum.org/2020/11/26/pakistans-three-evils-cpec-and-good-governance/" target="_blank">China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)</a> promise progress but deliver exclusion: minerals are mined, ports are secured, but Baloch homes are raided. 
The insurgency endures not because of foreign conspiracies, as Islamabad endlessly insists, but because the Pakistani state remains incapable of seeing its <a href="https://thebalochistanpost.net/2025/01/enforced-disappearances-in-balochistan-in-december-2024-tbp-report/" target="_blank">Baloch citizens</a> as anything other than a security problem to be managed.
In <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/ranisingh/2016/07/12/kashmir-in-the-worlds-most-militarized-zone-violence-after-years-of-comparative-calm/" target="_blank">Kashmir</a>, the Indian government claims to have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/08/world/asia/kashmir-village-defense-committees.html" target="_blank">“normalised” the valley</a> after revoking its autonomy in 2019. It <a href="https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-between-india-and-pakistan" target="_blank">looks a lot like occupation</a>. Soldiers outnumber local leaders, dissent is criminalised, internet shutdowns suffocate public life. Tourism campaigns and investment summits cannot erase a generation raised under curfew and surveillance.
<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-66260730" target="_blank">Manipur’s descent into ethnic bloodshed</a> in 2023 exposed another fault line Delhi prefers to ignore. Long-simmering tensions between the Meitei and Kuki communities erupted into violence that shattered any illusions of northeastern integration. The central government’s delayed, politicised response made clear what many Manipuris had always suspected: they are citizens of India only when convenient.
Even the <a href="https://msf.org.au/rohingya-worlds-largest-stateless-population" target="_blank">Rohingya, stateless and exiled from Myanmar</a>, find themselves entangled in South Asia’s ethnonationalist calculus. Fleeing genocide, they are criminalised anew in Bangladesh and India – trapped between the countries that reject them and the memories that refuse to let them go.
South Asia’s states have excelled at suppressing rebellion. But failed at extinguishing the reasons rebellions rise in the first place. And the wars South Asia tries to forget at home have found new life abroad.
Across <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-17/modis-indian-government-accused-of-spying-silencing-critics/103974414" target="_blank">Canada, Australia, Britain, and the United States</a>, diasporic communities have become memory-keepers and, increasingly, <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/khalistan-supporters-hold-protest-outside-indian-consulate-in-vancouver-123092600087_1.html" target="_blank">the agitators</a> for the struggles their home states would rather erase.
Khalistan flags fly outside Indian consulates in Vancouver and <a href="https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/punjab/perturbed-over-waving-of-khalistani-flags-at-an-event-in-melbourne-india-warns-australia-of-khalistan-separatists-and-their-links-with-terror-groups-458320/" target="_blank">Melbourne</a>. Tamil activists march through London, demanding accountability for the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/19/grim-reminder-sri-lankas-tamils-mark-15-years-since-end-of-civil-war" target="_blank">massacres in Mullivaikkal</a>. Kashmiri protests in Washington and New York refuse to let India’s crackdown slip into diplomatic amnesia.
For host countries, these movements pose uncomfortable questions. Freedom of expression collides with fears of extremism. Clashes erupt between communities carrying wounds that their new homelands.
Meanwhile, South Asian states pursue their adversaries across borders. India faces allegations of <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/canada-says-india-home-minister-ordered-campaign-against-sikh-activist-rcna177972" target="_blank">targeting Sikh activists for assassination in Canada</a> and the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/10/27/g-s1-29561/sikh-separatist-assassination-india" target="_blank">United States</a>. Pakistan continues to court Kashmiri separatists abroad while crushing Baloch dissent at home. <a href="https://apnews.com/article/sri-lanka-tamils-civil-war-dead-5b372b0bba567837c5a4d94250040e7d" target="_blank">Sri Lanka</a> lobbies furiously to brand Tamil diaspora organisations as fronts for terrorism, even as it stonewalls investigations into its own wartime atrocities.
The old insurgencies have not been defeated. They have been globalised. South Asia’s governments have long mistaken silence for stability.
In Punjab, India broke the back of the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/06/india/india-canada-sikh-khalistan-analysis-intl-hnk/index.html" target="_blank">Khalistan insurgency</a> through brute force. The fields grew green again, the trains ran on time. But the wounds were never closed, the <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/why-is-indias-khalistan-separatist-movement-on-the-rise/a-65081729" target="_blank">movement’s heart beats</a> not in Amritsar but in Brampton and Surrey.
In Sri Lanka, the <a href="https://www.academia.edu/4738983/The_Man_Who_Destroyed_Eelam" target="_blank">military crushed the Tamil Tigers</a> with <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2011/01/17/death-of-the-tiger" target="_blank">overwhelming brutality in 2009</a>. <a href="https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3264148/we-want-our-children-back-sri-lankan-families-still-demanding-justice-their-missing-loved-ones" target="_blank">Tamil families still search for their missing</a>, still mourn their dead – and still organise across the diaspora for justice that remains undelivered.
In Kashmir, Delhi boasts of new <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/2/4/kashmir-is-bleeding-its-economy" target="_blank">highways and investment corridors</a>, showcasing the region as a trophy of unity. But when the visitors leave and the cameras are packed away, <a href="https://harvardlawreview.org/print/vol-134/from-domicile-to-dominion-indias-settler-colonial-agenda-in-kashmir/" target="_blank">the checkpoints, the raids, and the quiet despair remain.</a>
Victory parades fade. Grievance endures. Suppressing insurgency may end battles. It does not end the ideas that fueled them. In a region where <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/23/world/asia/kashmir-attack-india-pakistan.html" target="_blank">history is rarely past</a>, and memory is rarely voluntary, states that rule through repression are only ever buying time. And often, not very much.
South Asia’s unfinished wars are not accidents. They are the inevitable consequences of states that confuse conquest with consent, and erasure with reconciliation. They cannot legislate memory out of existence.
Every <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c15qyyzz89lo" target="_blank">disappeared son in Balochistan</a>, every <a href="https://medium.com/the-wvoice/the-half-widows-in-kashmir-fef80c6b88e9" target="_blank">half-widow in Kashmir</a>, every <a href="https://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/what-we-do/focus/rohingya-refugee-crisis" target="_blank">refugee child born stateless in a Rohingya camp</a> carries forward the memory of betrayal – a memory that outlives soldiers, politicians, and peace accords alike.
The region’s future will not be decided by GDP figures or infrastructure projects alone. It will be decided by whether its governments can summon the political courage to face the truths they have long suppressed – or whether they will continue down a path <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-is-using-the-g20-summit-to-further-its-settler-colonial-ambitions-in-kashmir-205166" target="_blank">where forgetting is demanded</a>, and rebellion becomes inevitable.
Shyam Tekwani is a professor at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Hawaii. This <a href="https://dkiapcss.edu/nexus_articles/ghosts-at-the-border-south-asias-unfinished-wars/" target="_blank">article</a> was originally published on <a href="https://dkiapcss.edu/security-nexus/" target="_blank">DKI APCSS Security Nexus.</a> The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of DKI APCSS, the Department of Defense, or the US Government. The appearance of external hyperlinks does not constitute endorsement by the United States Department of Defense (DoD) of the linked websites, or the information, products, or services contained therein. DoD does not exercise any editorial, security, or other control over the information you may find at these sites.

Balochistan to Kashmir

Most Nepalis thought they had seen the last of it after <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/11-56-25-april-2015-wkc9q2an">the 25 April 7.8 magnitude </a>earthquake ten years ago. But the Himalaya had more surprises in store. On 12 May, another 7.3 magnitude tremor that some said was an aftershock, but was strong enough to itself be a major earthquake, struck Dolakha.&nbsp; Not many people had heard of Singati till then — a cluster of houses by the Tama Kosi River along a narrow gorge that is the roadhead to Rolwaling Valley.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_57b6e316656851f71eca56ca6f98d9bbcc820c1a00d62af3c990725b4361244d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250508110520_57b6e316656851f71eca56ca6f98d9bbcc820c1a00d62af3c990725b4361244d" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1500" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_016534fb2b6a79957402281cda768efb83a146786377e39e11df3e251d37159e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20250508110520_016534fb2b6a79957402281cda768efb83a146786377e39e11df3e251d37159e" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>  It was here that dozens were killed on 25 April in the first earthquake. Hundreds of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Singati-rising-from-rubble-rebuilding,3703">Singati survivors</a> had lined up for food and relief supplies in the morning of 12 May when the second earthquake triggered a rock slide that buried a nearby camp. At least 50 people were killed. &nbsp; Three hours later, a US Marine Corps UH-1Y Venom helicopter landed in a nearby cornfield to pick up the wounded, and flew off. The aircraft lost contact with air traffic control in Kathmandu and its wreckage was located high on Kalinchok four days later. Six American servicemen, two Nepal Army soldiers, and five wounded civilians from Singati were killed. Today, Singati bears little physical scar of the multiple tragedies that struck the town ten years ago. Most <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/bungamati-builds-back">houses have been rebuilt</a> as urban-style concrete structures, and Singati has become an economic hub on the road leading up to several hydropower plants and a<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/off-the-beaten-trek-in-nepal"> popular trekking destination</a>.&nbsp; The town looks less like a village and more like a suburb of the Dolakha district headquarter of Charikot, 47km away.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_196f341d1df1403ba133e5dfeb837eec20d7cbcb4c8c56b17cc5598810de5df2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20250508110520_196f341d1df1403ba133e5dfeb837eec20d7cbcb4c8c56b17cc5598810de5df2" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110524_ae66c4a92430f67db51b5e11e017059eedfbac4cb18c8e073f2a50cca1fe904e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20250508110524_ae66c4a92430f67db51b5e11e017059eedfbac4cb18c8e073f2a50cca1fe904e" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>  “The demand for construction material, cement, iron rods and bricks peaked after the earthquakes,” says Suresh Khadka, who owns a hardware business here and now supplies material to the 456MW Upper Tama Kosi hydropower project that is undergoing repairs after it was damaged by a landslide last year. The demand for cement boomed since most residents believe, not necessarily correctly, that <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/in-a-disastrous-state">cement houses are safer</a>. Although Khadka did well selling construction material after the earthquake, he worries that most new structures do not follow seismic-resistant building codes.&nbsp; The construction boom financed by bank loans has in turn forced many from Singati to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/making-overseas-migration-better">migrate overseas for work</a> so they can service their debt.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110524_50caa4530bd5ff9120cf7ab70a62173846d337ef448ff8bac339f3faa375a9e2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250508110524_50caa4530bd5ff9120cf7ab70a62173846d337ef448ff8bac339f3faa375a9e2" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> <figcaption>Suresh Khadka</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_ef8b7d3993fc3b5df852bbf952feb3fbabc96d6883b0d5eb74ee5c60f4123b83.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="20250508110520_ef8b7d3993fc3b5df852bbf952feb3fbabc96d6883b0d5eb74ee5c60f4123b83" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> <figcaption>Phu Doma Sherpa (right)</figcaption> </figure>  “My family had no choice but to borrow money to rebuild our home since the government compensation was not enough, and ten years later we are still paying off the loan,” says Phu Doma Sherpa, 60. Because of the shortage of qualified masons and proper seismic engineering, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/structural-problems">many of the buildings are of questionable building standards </a>and the traditional architecture has been abandoned, admits Kul Bahadur Budathoki, deputy chair of the municipality. “But these buildings were more expensive than what the government grants could cover, many people here are heavily in debt and the men have <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/every-day-is-closer-to-pay-day">migrated to the Gulf to pay their loans</a>,” Budathoki says.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_32f89e97b7e757fc9286c0bbb671f48ea8d4468e9634fa646d7247c650ad8480.jpg" data-media-id="editor_14" data-image-id="20250508110520_32f89e97b7e757fc9286c0bbb671f48ea8d4468e9634fa646d7247c650ad8480" data-rendition-name="original" width="1501" height="1079" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> <figcaption>Kul Bahadur Budathoki</figcaption> </figure>  Singati is in a multi-hazard zone. The <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Singati,3091">12 May 2015 earthquake </a>could have led to the collapse of Nepal’s largest glacial lake, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/stairway-to-heaven">Tso Rolpa</a>, upstream. Due to global warming, the glacier has turned into an expanding lake 3.5km long, and its collapse would have unleashed a catastrophic Himalayan tsunami down the Tama Kosi Valley, with Singati directly in its path. Singati has literally risen from the ashes of 2015, with its residents beginning to recover from the trauma and financial toll. But it is not out of danger as <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/climate-breakdown-linked-to-thame-flood">climate breakdown </a>magnifies the risk from future earthquakes.