Nepal’s leaders often make grandiose promises that they will turn the country into Switzerland within a decade. We will be lucky if Nepal could even attain the per capita GDP of Swaziland.
Becoming another Switzerland or Singapore is the boastful fantasy of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/politics-as-usual">incompetent serial politicians</a> who keep getting themselves elected again and again.&nbsp;
So, what has to change?&nbsp;
It has to be <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/looking-ahead-to-nepal-s-2027-elections">through elections</a>, but there is spreading distrust of the democratic system bordering on nihilism among Nepalis. The three main parties must have sensed by now that they are doomed if they do not get their act together and inject new untainted blood into tickets in 2027.&nbsp;
One election will not clean up the muck that has accumulated over the past 35 years, but we have to start with the next one. Politics cannot be business as usual any more, voters are fed up with what is on offer.&nbsp;
Over <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/push-factors-driving-nepalis-out">one-third of young Nepalis are not even in Nepal</a>, and they are not allowed to cast their ballots. But we saw in 2022 that the diaspora can have an impact on how their folks vote back home, and this trend is bound to increase in 2027. It would finally break the vote banks on which the established parties have relied on to perpetuate misrule.
Nepal needs solutions urgently to address snowballing crises on multiple fronts: social inequity, joblessness and low purchasing power, failing agriculture, breakdown of services, a pandemic of corruption feeding mal-development, low capital formation, environmental woes, and to top it all off — a runaway climate emergency.&nbsp;
Yet, there are bright spots, many of which happened despite political instability: falling poverty rate, improved health and education status, increase in forest cover, conservation successes, growth in hydropower.&nbsp;
Just imagine how much further ahead Nepal would be if it was not plagued with chronic mismanagement, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/higher-corruption-in-high-places">corruption and conflict</a>.
It is because of these modest gains that <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/not-poor-but-not-rich">Nepal will graduate</a> from a ‘least-developed’ to a ‘developing country’ in November 2026, and transition to middle-income status by 2030 — even though it still has an annual per capita income below the $1,306 threshold.
The driving force for this growth comes almost entirely from remittances which make up 26% of the GDP — the third highest in the world. Inflows officially hit $12.54 billion last year, and nearly 65% of households depend on money <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/the-new-equaliser">family members send home</a>, spending most of it on basic needs.
A recent discussion at the Institute for Integrated Development Studies (IIDS) titled Diaspora Dialogue: Innovation, Identity and Global Influence looked at leveraging the 4 million Nepalis who live and work abroad to spur investment and growth.
IIDS has been involved since 1979 in policy advocacy to propose sustainable solutions to governments under at least four different political systems. The fact that we are in the state we are in now must mean that not many of the policy priorities the IIDS put forward in the past 40 years have been properly implemented.&nbsp;
For decades, we’ve heard that Nepal’s path to economic growth lies in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/people-power/nepal-can-level-up-tourism-with-electricity">hydropower and tourism</a>, but that narrative has to change, noted IIDS Executive Director Biswash Gauchan.&nbsp;
“Forget falling water, forest and forex,” he said. “Nepal has to move to a knowledge economy, boost investment and look beyond our neighbours to the diaspora.”&nbsp;
There is an artificial bubble in real estate and banking due to remittances. Even if Nepal gets 3 million tourists a year and exports most its hydropower it will not be enough to take the annual per capita income to $6,000 by 2050.
A knowledge economy means thinking beyond enrolment rates and basic literacy to quality education relevant to the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/investing-in-people">human resources the country needs</a>. This will ensure jobs at home in import-substitution agriculture, value-added manufacturing and export of services.
And that is where global Nepalis come in. Connectivity means the end of geography, and diaspora talent and capital can be harnessed for investment and involvement in innovation to take Nepal into a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/smart-ageing-is-nepal-s-next-frontier">digital future</a>.&nbsp;
This needs a paradigm shift away from a rent-seeking state to a ‘whole-of-government’ strategy that can only come from a new crop of competent technocrats with integrity and vision to seize the moment. They have to see migration not as 'brain drain' but as 'brain circulation'.
Those Nepalis exist. In Nepal and all over the world. Swaziland’s anuual per capita income is $4,000 — think we can do it <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-in-2050-wk6r5r1j">by 2050</a>?
Kunda Dixit

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Size does not matter

Nepal is graduating to become a developing country on 24 November 2026 after half-century in the Least Developed Country (LDC) category. By 2030, the country hopes to transition to middle-income status.&nbsp; Everone from Prime Minister K P Oli have boasted that this is a matter of national pride, and will have a multiplier impact on trade and economy.&nbsp; But will it make any difference to the average Nepali? Not unless improved governance <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/why-invest-in-nepal">spurs investment and creates jobs</a>.&nbsp; Countries need to meet at least two of the three criteria in two consecutive triennial reviews to be eligible for graduation from LDC. Nepal has consistently met the thresholds for the Human Assets Index (HAI) and the Economic and Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) in 2015, 2018, and 2021. But Nepal was recommended for graduation before meeting the per capita <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-great-income-divide">Gross National Income (GNI)</a> threshold of $1,306. “A major implication of LDC graduation is the loss of preferential market access available through Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) and other arrangements,” explains economist Sameer Khatiwada. “But over two-thirds of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-doesnt-produce-its-2-biggest-export-items">Nepal’s exports</a> are to India, and the preferential market access to India is through a bilateral trade agreement. This has nothing to do with our LDC status.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250815060832_f5eabe7628a8cdf84f33b25d7cef3c4dc8913a26d8e5b253ea52a36e176b8a85.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20250815060832_f5eabe7628a8cdf84f33b25d7cef3c4dc8913a26d8e5b253ea52a36e176b8a85" data-rendition-name="original" width="640" height="470" loading="lazy" alt="LDC graduation "> </figure>  Furthermore, a provision under the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) allows Nepal to export to India duty-free if the items are at least 30% value-added. Nepali traders take advantage of this by re-exporting edible oils without meeting that requirement, falsely boosting Nepal’s exports.“ Following graduation from LDC, the value addition threshold might increase to 40%,” says Kalpana Khanal of the Policy Research Institute. “This is supposed to work to our advantage, because on paper value addition inherently means <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/staying-home-to-create-jobs">job creation at home</a>.” But Nepal’s exports to other major destinations will face <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-and-the-us-india-tariff-tiff">tariff increases</a> with the graduation. A South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics and Environment (SWATEE) study shows that while tariff increase in the US market is relatively low (see page 5) it is considerably higher in Europe. The International Trade Centre (ITC) in a 2022 study also estimated that graduation could result in a 4.3% decline in Nepal’s projected exports, but this is excluding the impact of changes in ‘rules of origin’ provisions in preference-granting countries such as the UK and Europe.&nbsp; Nepal’s top export to these preference-granting countries is <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=1482">carpets</a>, and will not be impacted, but other items such as textiles and apparel will be heavily affected due to higher cost of production. The impact will felt mostly by small and medium enterprises which represent the largest share of exports to LDC-specific preference-granting countries. As for the service exports, Nepal never really made use of the World Trade Organization’s LDC services waiver anyway, hence the effect will be minimal, if any. There is also concern about Nepal’s graduation at a time when the global economy is topsy-turvy, amidst <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-point-in-us-india-relations">tariff wars and conflicts</a>. This affects Nepalis abroad directly and may impact <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/more-remittance-more-than-remittance">remittances </a>which hit $11 billion in 2024. In comparison, Nepal only received $350 million in foreign loans and grants last year.&nbsp; Tourism arrivals have finally reached pre-pandemic levels, but bad publicity about pollution, poor infrastructure and bureaucratic hurdles hinder further growth. Manufacturing continues to struggle, while hydropower and the IT sector have taken off.&nbsp; “Look at data -- <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/tourism-needs-a-new-push">tourism arrivals</a> are up, spending is up, IT exports are up, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/why-nepal-needs-to-restore-ev-tax-subsidy">EV sales </a>are up, Europe still needs 85-90 million skilled workers. We are sitting on $16 billion in cash reserves, our balance of payment, foreign exchange reserve, tax to GDP ratio, credit flow are all positive, we have to build on these factors,” says Sujeev Shakya of the Nepal Economic Forum. He adds: “Our mindset creates negativity to promote rent-seeking behaviour, but this cynicism will go away after 2026 with LDC graduation. We must deal with data, look at trends, and projects which will bring in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/from-the-nepali-press/why-there-is-no-foreign-investment-in-nepal">international investments</a>.” Khanal agrees that investment is not dependent on<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/backside/Nepal-not-the-least-developed-country,306"> LDC status</a>. The factors that that affect investment are policy stability, a strong legal framework, market potential and ease of doing business. She adds, “That is where our focus needs to be, and we need to retain <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/diaspora-diaries/migrant-worker-returns-to-create-work-at-home?fbclid=IwAR09xJfsClCwn8uRVAmz28CU658vdKpuyDwB_b1sNlvKtAFFnSldnA0JS2g">Nepalis with jobs at home</a> for our sustained growth.” After 2026, financing support from donors and aid agencies could be affected and Nepal will no longer be able to access Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) to adapt to the impacts of climate change. But the Global Environment Fund and Green Climate Fund will still be available.“ LDC status does not determine bilateral development aid, that is usually driven by broader <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/looking-beyond-two-boulders">geopolitical considerations</a>,” says Sameer Khatiwada. “The World Bank and Asian Development Bank, which provide concessional loans to Nepal, it is determined mainly by per capita income, not LDC status.” &nbsp;However, Nepal may lose some concessional terms for loans. Nepal is currently a lower-middle-income country as per the World Bank in the bracket for GNI between $1,036 and $4,045. The country is already receiving more loans than grants and in July the World Bank increased its interest rate on loans by 100% from 0.75 to 1.5%. “All this means that the impact of LDC graduation for Nepal might not be as earth-shattering as some tend to think. Countries that have recently graduated, such as Botswana and the Maldives, have shows that graduation is just a step in a country’s development path,” says Khatiwada. Sujeev Shakya also sees the glass as half full, explaining that LDC graduation is just a stepping stone if Nepal has the right policies in place. He adds, “Nepal’s biggest advantage is our<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/investing-in-people"> working age population</a> and we have investments coming in. These aided by how adaptive we are as a society are the very foundations on which Nepal will grow.” This Editorial is brought to you by <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/" target="_blank">Nepali Times</a>, in collaboration with <a href="https://inpsjapan.com/en/" target="_blank">INPS Japan</a> and <a href="https://sgi-peace.org/" target="_blank">Soka Gakkai International</a>, in consultative status with UN ECOSOC.

Sonia Awale

Not poor, but not rich

One of the greatest obstacles to better jobs and faster <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-s-bubble-economy">economic growth in Nepal </a>today isn’t a shortage of natural resources, challenging geography, or limited access to finance. It is the unrealised potential of its people—not due to a lack of talent, resilience, or ambition, but because the country has not invested enough to unlock that potential.
Too many <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/no-country-for-young-men-c89lgrrl">young Nepalis </a>are growing up without the quality education, healthcare, and skills needed to succeed in the modern economy—especially those in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/not-rising-nepal">poorer and more remote areas</a>. As a result, much of Nepal’s human capital remains underdeveloped and underused, reinforcing <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/institutionalised-inequality">inequality</a> and holding back productivity, innovation, and inclusive growth.
This is not a challenge unique to Nepal. Around the world, successful economies are not those that only have abundant <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/working-with-nature-to-protect-people">natural resources</a>, but those that invest early and consistently in their people by ensuring access to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/after-quantity-nepals-education-needs-quality">quality education</a>, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/altruistic-healthcare-models-in-nepal">healthcare</a>, and nutrition. These are the building blocks for accumulating human capital.
When these foundations are strong, countries benefit from a more productive workforce, healthier communities, and faster economic growth. But when these investments are neglected, entire generations are left behind, trapped in cycles of low productivity and limited opportunity.
A new World Bank report—the <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/nepal/publication/nurturing-nepali-talent-to-foster-economic-growth-a-human-capital-review-for-nepal" target="_blank">Nepal Human Capital Review</a>—finds that a child born in Nepal today is expected to achieve just 51% of their full productivity potential by age 18.
Limited access to quality education, healthcare, and nutrition means that half of a child’s productivity potential remains unrealised. This is more than a missed opportunity for the child— it represents a significant productivity loss for the country’s long-term growth.
Beneath this national average lie even deeper inequalities. Imagine two children born on the same day in 2020—one in the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-karnali-s-hunger-emergency"> remote hills of Karnali</a>, the other in the more urban and better-connected areas of Bagmati, near the capital.&nbsp;
The child in Bagmati is far more likely to attend a private school or benefit from better education and health services, thanks to higher household incomes and greater availability of providers. In contrast, the child in Karnali is more likely to rely solely on the public system, which remains under-resourced and overstretched.
The statistics are striking—a child born in Karnali is expected to reach just 46% of their productivity potential, which is well below the average for lower-middle-income countries. Meanwhile, a child born in Bagmati is expected to reach 58% —a level comparable to upper-middle-income economies.&nbsp;
These differences stem not just from geography, but from unequal access to quality services—whether public or private. They reflect a public system struggling to deliver quality services for all, and one that families with more resources are often able to supplement through private investments. These are not just numbers, they are life trajectories—shaped not by ability or ambition, but by the simple event of where a child is born and raised.
Even for those who manage to build their human capital, the labour market often fails to reward their efforts. Given the difficulties of finding a good job, a child born in Nepal today is expected to realise just 18% of their productivity potential—one of the lowest rates in the world. The reason is simple: there are too few quality jobs.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/brain-gain-into-brain-drain">Brain gain into brain drain</a>, Sonia Awale
Between 2010 and 2018, only four in ten new entrants to the working-age population were able to secure paid employment. Most jobs are informal, low-paid, and offer little in terms of security or career growth. The situation is especially challenging for young people—more than a third of those aged 15 to 24 are not in education, employment, or training. And for women, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-women-left-behind">labour force participation</a> remains stubbornly low at just 29%, about half the rate of men.
Nepal’s low levels of human capital—combined with the wide gap between the number of people seeking work and the availability of jobs—pose a serious threat to the country’s long-term growth and social inclusion.
SHAPING A FUTURE
To change the course of Nepal’s human capital trajectory and lay the foundation for a more prosperous future, public investments in education, health, and social protection must increase while ensuring that every rupee is spent effectively and reaches those most in need. Closing the gap in access to quality services—especially for those who rely exclusively on public provision—must be a top priority.
Investments must be targeted so that every child—regardless of where they are born—has access to early learning opportunities, qualified teachers, textbooks, nutritious meals, and basic health services. These are the corner stones to build human capital.
Just as important as building human capital is ensuring there are job opportunities. Over the next three decades, Nepal will need to create 6.5 million jobs just to keep up with its expanding working-age population. Therefore, the need to accelerate job creation at scale has never been more urgent.&nbsp;
This requires more than business as usual. It calls for a fundamental shift from short-term fixes to long-term, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/why-invest-in-nepal">strategic investments </a>in people and systems and by making Nepal a better place to invest, by Nepalis and foreigners, alike.
Creating jobs in Nepal must be a combination of efforts to simultaneously build a workforce with the skills for the 21st century while simultaneously making the policy reforms and investments to let the world know that Nepal is, truly, “open for business”.
Today, too many young people leave school without a clear path into the workforce—and that needs to change. Boosting youth employability demands stronger links between training and labour market needs, expanded reskilling programs, and developing public-private partnerships that deliver modern, relevant skills.
Young people must be equipped with quality technical and vocational education, digital skills, and lifelong learning opportunities—especially in underserved communities. These must become core elements of Nepal’s education system if the country is to be competitive in an increasingly fast-moving, technology-driven economy.
The future of a Nepali child should not be determined by whether they are born in Karnali or Bagmati. This is a moment for bold action. Investing in people is not just the right thing to do, it is the smartest strategy for creating jobs, driving growth, and building a more inclusive economy where all young Nepalis can thrive.
David Sislen is the World Bank Country Division Director for Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka.

Investing in people

It is the same every year. Just as the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/now-the-economy-stupid">finance minister prepares to deliver his budget</a>, there is a last minute spending spree across the country to disburse as much money as possible before the fiscal year ends in July.
The habit even has a pejorative Nepali phrase: असारे विकास, the frantic last-minute resource execution. But every year, even after all that eleventh-hour expenditure, the budget remains woefully underspent. &nbsp;
Nepal’s budget is classified into three parts: current expenditure for administrative spending, capital expenditure for long-term <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/protecting-protected-areas-from-infrastructure?fbclid=IwAR1wK0MDFlFST_2EYb3f54LS4-fPt6rYfLG1DJ1JaQsU3w8-ezyXIxGOqzk">development and infrastructure</a>, and debt servicing.
Current <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/till-debt-do-us-part">expenditure and debt servicing</a> account for a significant portion of government spending, leaving little money to improve roads, build facilities and buy equipment. But every year for the last nine years, the government underspent by an average of 35.3%. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Till Wednesday, the three layers of government had spent only 66% of the total budget of Rs1.8 trillion, and 37% of its Rs352 billion development budget. Where does all that unspent money go?&nbsp;
Unused funds from some ministries go back to the national treasury. But Nepal has a revenue shortfall, and there is a tendency to allocate funds without ensuring resource availability.&nbsp;
“The main reason Nepal is unable to spend even the money allocated for development is because projects are not prioritised properly,” explains economist Kalpana Khanal.&nbsp;
The National Planning Commission’s (NPC’s) Project Bank is tasked with selecting national projects for <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/unique-hospital-handover-in-dolakha">public-private partnership</a> investments and ranking them into three tiers based on priority. &nbsp;
Per the classification, the standards for Priority 1 projects include a completed Detailed Project Report and Environmental Impact Assessment report, as well as land acquisition guarantees. But these are just on paper, which means resources are diverted to politically expedient projects or those not fully developed. &nbsp;&nbsp;
Furthermore, Nepal’s procurement mechanism involves choosing the lowest bidder, which presents domestic barriers since contracts are stretched beyond capacity and expertise. This is compounded by the quick turnover of skilled administrative and technical staff, and project managers.&nbsp;
Then there is over-regulation. Budget expense categories are rigid, which limits the ability to reallocate funds where they are needed.&nbsp;
In October 2024, a High-Level Commission on Economic Reform, was formed to assess <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-in-the-red">the country’s overall economic situation </a>and provide recommendations. Khanal was a member of the commission, and says it remains to be seen whether their suggestions are implemented in the budget.&nbsp;
“We must first properly identify national priority projects, strengthen our internal capacity and human resources, diversify our procurement process, and ensure oversight agencies focus on monitoring and evaluation without over-regulating,” says Khanal. “For this, we need both political and bureaucratic integrity.”
That is a polite way to say that there is too much <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-only-growth-industry-private-sector-corruption">corruption and cronyism</a>. Case in point: discussions surrounding the new budget took a backseat this week as Home Minister Ramesh Lekhak was embroiled in a scandal involving payoffs for Nepalis leaving on visit visas.&nbsp;
Opposition parties including the Maoist-Centre and the RSP obstructed Parliament and demanded Lekhak’s resignation. The scandal has already led to the removal of and an investigation into Chief Immigration Officer Tirtharaj Bhattarai.&nbsp;
This is reminiscent of last year’s budget presentation by Prime Minister Puspha Kamal Dahal’s government. The Nepali Congress, which was then in opposition, similarly obstructed Parliament and demanded the resignation of Home Minister Rabi Lamichhane citing his involvement in a cooperatives fraud.&nbsp;
Home Minister Lekhak, who was not able to explain himself in Parliament, held a press conference to deny any wrongdoing. Despite obstruction, opposition parties said they would allow the budget to be presented, and the Finance Minister is presenting the budget in Parliament on Thursday.
29 May was also Republic Day, and marked symbolically by the monarchist RPP to launch a campaign of<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/republicans-and-royalists-on-nepal-s-streets"> pro-royal rallies in the capital</a>.
The budget comes as the government faces a revenue crunch, as well as the loss of funding for the social sector because of the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/how-usaid-cut-affects-nepal">USAID cutoff </a>and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-great-game-2nd-half">shrinking donor aid</a>. Rights-based programs related to gender, health, and education will suffer. Common sense would dictate that the unspent funds in the next budget be quickly reallocated to health and education. &nbsp;&nbsp;
Says Khanal: “Once the budget is allocated, the budget cycle must be improved— the tendency to overspend towards the end of the fiscal year must be minimised.”&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/how-nepal-can-budget-wisely">How Nepal can budget wisely</a>, Siddhartha Rayamajhi

Shristi Karki

Understanding Nepal's underspending

I have just finished reading the recently published Cuckooland: Where the Rich Own the Truth, by Tom Burgis that was <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-s-crony-communism-exposed">recently reviewed in this paper</a>, and examines the phenomenon of corruption across several continents, and the career of powerbroker Mohamed Amersi. 
In the Nepal section, the focus is on Amersi’s links with prominent Nepali ‘businessman’ <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=776#google_vignette">Ajeya Sumargi</a>, the activities of the Nordic telecommunications giant TeliaSonera and its Nepali network Ncell, and Amersi’s relationship first with <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/food-of-the-royals">the royal family</a> and after 2006, with certain prominent politicians, including the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/all-is-fair-in-war-and-peace">Maoist </a>leader formerly known as ‘Prachanda’.
It is well recognised in Nepal that <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/nepal-s-corruption-carousel">corruption</a> in high places is one of the major features of Nepal’s political economy. In February, while I was visiting Kathmandu for the first time in five years, there was an editorial in The Kathmandu Post headed ‘Rotting from the Head’ which suggested that ‘frustration with corruption, mismanagement and bad governance is reaching a boiling point’.
The latest Transparency International report showed that the corruption perception index (CPI) for Nepal was 34 out of 100, marginally lower than the previous year. In the review period, <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=15139">Prachanda</a> (the CPN Maoist Centre chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal) was prime minister until mid-July 2024 when he was replaced in the merry-go-round of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-geopolitics-of-nepal-s-politics">Nepali politics</a>, by UML chief K P Oli, the current prime minister.
Several decisions of the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/left-led-coalition-upturns-nepal-politics">Oli-led government</a>, including one to build his party’s central office with funds from <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=5082">Min Bahadur Gurung of Bhatbhateni</a> and the Giribandhu Tea Estate scam related to the illegal <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/This/peaceful-land-movement,658">use of land</a> exceeding the prescribed ceiling, were just the latest <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/ciaa-traps-small-fish-lets-big-ones-go">corruption cases </a>linked to the prime minister.
Pushpa Kamal Dahal claimed that the two other major parties, the Nepali Congress (NC) and the UML had plotted his removal because of his ‘campaign against corruption’, but he himself was compromised by colleagues like <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/the-rise-and-fall-of-comrade-mahara">Krishna Bahadur Mahara</a>, who was implicated in a gold smuggling case and, arguably, by his own dealings with Ajeya Sumargi and TeliaSonera, that are discussed by Tom Burgis in Cuckooland.
The <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/rsp-quits-nepal-coalition">Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) </a>emerged dramatically as the fourth largest party in the House of Representatives in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepals-local-polls-a-rehearsal-for-federal-elections">2022</a> on a platform of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=5944">corruption control </a>and <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/Comment/compassion-better-governance-Nepal-development,299">good governance</a>. But its president, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-rise-and-fall-of-rabi-lamichhane">Rabi Lamichhane</a>, had been suspended as a lawmaker and faces charges of embezzlement of the deposits of cooperatives in five districts.
Other politicians also, including former NC home minister Balkrishna Khand, who was only released on bail after detention on the charge of sending Nepalis as <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/scapegoating-a-champion-of-democracy">fake refugees from Bhutan</a> to the United States, and former prime ministers Baburam Bhattarai and Madhav Kumar Nepal (now leaders of their own small parties) were considered not to be ‘above question’ with regard to illegal sales of government land at Lalita Niwas.
On 20 March 2025, the East Asia Forum published a piece by Anil Sigdel, founder of Nepal Matters in Washington DC, lecturer at the University of Vienna and author of India in the Era of China’s Belt and Road Initiative: How Modi Responds to Xi. He looked back on the previous year and suggested that corruption and crisis defined Nepal’s <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/south-asia-2040-qxr16oup">2024</a>.
In addition to the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/poor-cash-rich-nepal">dire state of the economy</a>, stagnant <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-economy-shifts-away-from-farming">agricultural production</a>, the virtual absence of industry, massive<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-geopolitics-of-nepal-s-water-and-electricity"> trade deficit especially with India</a> and crippling <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/the-new-equaliser">reliance on remittances</a> from <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-on-my-mind">Nepalis living and working abroad</a>, Sigdel highlights the sclerosis, the pervasive corruption and the rent-seeking of the political elite, and the phenomenon of what might be termed ‘the abuse of public trust for private gain’ -- a definition of corruption provided by Tom Burgis.
Now, Nepal has introduced a fresh provision in its newly-amended <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/anti-corruption-vaccine-for-nepal">anti-corruption</a> law that will penalise public officials not only for the abuse of power but also for their inaction or indecision. The amended Anti-Corruption Act 2002, which took five years to pass through the federal parliament, has now come into effect following presidential approval. Offenders could face up to six months detention or a fine of up to Rs50,000, or both. 
The Act also imposes up to a year’s imprisonment or a fine of Rs500,000, or both, for officials found guilty of abusing their official position or duties. But this amendment is directed essentially at <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/nepals-uncivil-servants">civil servants</a>, and does little to deal with those in high places, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-business-of-politics-in-nepal">politicians and businesses</a>, who continue all too often to abuse public trust for private gain.
Is it too much to hope that continued pressure from the public and scrutiny by the media will not only bring to light corruption where it exists but gradually reduce its incidence? 
David Seddon is Director of Critical Faculty, author and co-author of many publications on Nepal, including Nepal in Crisis (with John Cameron and P M Blaikie) first published in 1980.

Higher corruption in high places

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uNdMuD_4yGwTim Gocher, Founder of the Dolma Impact Fund, speaks to Nepali Times Studio.Nepali Times: It looks like you have quite a soft spot for Nepal.Tim Gocher: I first came here in 2003 and just like for a lot of westerners, there was something magical here for me. And, over the years, I have begun to put my finger on what that magic is. I almost found what I was looking for in a remote Himalayan village. But I have to say the real magic was my wife Pooja Gurung who I met in Dhunche during a trek 15 years ago. I have never looked back.And how did the Dolma Impact Fund come about?It was not a business to begin with, it was the love for the country. I had met a girl named Dolma, she was nine, but not going to school. I sponsored her education, and that grew into the <a href="http://www.dolmafoundation.org/">Dolma Foundation</a> which still educates hundreds of children. I lived a double life. I had this voluntary charity while also working for investment banks in Singapore, London, and New York. I wanted to bring the two together – to bring the power of markets and capital to stimulate sustainable growth. It took us three years to persuade anybody to invest in the first private equity fund for Nepal. I got laughed at in quite a few offices.Which sector do you think is most critical for Nepal’s economic development?I don’t think we at <a href="http://www.dolmaimpact.com/">Dolma Impact Fund</a> are focused in any one sector. The underlying fundamentals for infrastructure are holding companies back. So we have invested in two hydro power projects and I was going say how great the political stability is till … (Laughter, as a political demonstration passes the street outside).How did the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-turns-to-solar-and-batteries-to-meet-peak-demand/">transition to peak demand generation from solar</a> happen?We saw companies across the board operating at this cost disadvantage, and wanted to use new energy technology to help with domestic energy production. Solar and battery costs are going down. We can provide through Dolma Himalayan Climate Fund a solution which is very similar to seasonal hydro storage where they would deliver power on as needed basis in the dry season by storing water in summer. The beauty of it is speed. Big hydro storage plants take a long time to build, but solar can be built in two years. It is not going to replace hydro, but it does give Nepal another energy option to offset some of the imports from India.How do you see the political and economic future of Nepal?I certainly won’t tell you how I see the political future of Nepal, none of my business. But I will tell you a bit about business future. Do you want the bad news first, or the good news?Bad news?I have invested and done business in many countries, and there is obviously need for reform. We tend to see some restrictive things. Things that are meant well actually might stop the initial investment growth, job creation, prosperity. But it doesn’t stop us, we were certainly well aware before we came in. We now provide employment in our portfolio companies to 3,000 people. If that’s the bad news the good news must be really good.This is not a small country, it has the population of Malaysia. There is rarely a place where the regulations are perfect. Where else do you get to meet the ministers and governors, and they will hear you out. They are not always going to act, but sometimes they do. It is not all not mapped out for us business people and as investors it is risky. But you also feel like you are a part of something bigger. It’s not just about the money. If was just about the money I would still will be in London or New York.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-turns-to-solar-and-batteries-to-meet-peak-demand/">Nepal turns to solar and batteries to meet peak demand</a>, Kunda Dixit

“A part of something bigger”

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="700" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Made with AWECODE</div>

Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

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