Nepal’s national electricity grid is supplied with power from a remarkably decentralised array of 162 hydropower projects and 14 solar photovoltaic schemes spread across 43 districts, supplying power over the grid to 30 million people.
Another 249 hydropower projects and 14 solar projects are at different stages of construction, positioning 11 new districts to contribute power to the grid by 2030. Six of the country’s seven provinces generate hydropower as their main energy source, while Madhes Province generates solar energy.&nbsp;
While NEA (Nepal Electricity Authority) and its subsidiaries own and operate 20 generation stations, the remaining are owned and operated by Independent Power Producers (IPP). All but two of the IPPs are Nepali companies that have successfully mobilised over $2 billion in investment.
This investment has been spread widely across the country. Eleven districts generate more than 100MW each with Dolakha, Lamjung, Solukhumbu, and Ramechhap each exceeding 200MW (map). The average size of hydropower projects on Nepal’s grid is 15.5MW, while the average solar project is 4.2MW.
The average size of projects under construction is larger -- 39.5MW for hydro and 6.9MW for solar respectively.&nbsp;
For most hill and mountain districts, hydropower is easily the largest investment, private or public, in their history. &nbsp;
This decentralised power generation model is a relatively recent development for Nepal. In 1995 when the World Bank withdrew (adjoining article) its planned investment from the 201MW Arun III project, NEA had not envisioned the entry of the private sector. In fact, its published strategy was to mobilise international aid for hydropower projects larger than Arun III.
The well-known cancellation of Arun III in 1995 and the availability of alternative models led to Nepal's decentralised power development. It matters that this distributed generation and storage of electricity is close to the point of use.
Centralised power stations have been the norm for industrialised and emerging economies to achieve rapid and cheap electrification, taking advantage of economies of scale of large power plants.
Also in Nepal, when its vast hydropower potential was first quantified in the 1960s, plans were drawn up for mega hydropower projects with reservoirs such as Karnali, Kosi, and Pancheswar. None of these could be realised, however, due to lack of financing.&nbsp;
Donor funds could never be aggregated at the scale needed for the investments required, and the country was not attractive to the international private sector. Nepal opted not to invite India to construct its large hydropower projects to supply the Indian market the way Bhutan did.
It took the country 40 years to find its way -- generation led by private domestic investment supplemented by public sector involvement by the NEA.&nbsp;
The cancellation of Arun III resulted in the government signing expensive dollar-denominated power purchase agreements (PPA) with international producers like Khimti (60MW) and Bhote Kosi (45MW) to partially make up for the shortfall. These were against the wishes of NEA management.&nbsp;
It was in reaction to these expensive PPAs that engineers at NEA received permission to develop Chilime (20MW) with rupee-denominated PPA and the government at the time announced a standard tariff in NPR for power generated by IPPs.&nbsp;
Once NEA showed its willingness to sign these PPAs, hundreds of companies sprang up to apply for licenses to survey and construct small hydropower plants throughout the country.
Decentralised power development contributes to construction jobs and infrastructure investment, especially in remote districts where many of the best hydropower sites are located.&nbsp;
Construction of an electricity generation station provides at one go the two most important infrastructure any district needs to generate jobs — power and a road.&nbsp;
Decentralised generation provides energy security to load centres throughout the country since damage to power plants in one part of the country need not affect other areas that have their own generation. It also reduces transmission losses as large amounts of power do not have to be transported from one end of the country to another.
Nepal’s strategy of decentralised power development is coming to maturity in the era of the climate crisis, when the global response has been a surge in renewable energy investments and grids all over the world pushing to become decentralised.&nbsp;
Landslides, flooding and glacial lake outburst floods have always posed risks to infrastructure projects in the Himalaya, and climate breakdown has increased this risk with the severity and frequency of cloud bursts.&nbsp;
The 2024 monsoon has been particularly bad, temporarily shutting down NEA’s 456MW Upper Tamakosi, 60MW Upper Trisuli 3A, 40MW Chameliya, and 10MW Sunkosi projects,&nbsp;
It also downed the 36MW Balefi, 20MW Lower Modi, 18MW Middle Modi, and 7.5 MW Indrawati III operated by IPPs.
Nonetheless, there has not been any increase in load shedding because power plants across other river basins continued to generate without interruption.&nbsp;
Having power plants spread across two thirds of the country rather than concentrated in a few river valleys distributes the risk to the country’s entire power supply.&nbsp;
Adding solar energy to the generation mix diversifies the types of renewable energy available and contributes to power in the winter months. It also makes the grid more secure during periods of drought when hydropower production declines.&nbsp;
Solar energy is a perfect complement to hydro since by definition its production will peak during periods with low rainfall.
Distributed generation is shaping up to be an important component of Nepal’s decentralised energy system. This increases energy security to users and reduces transmission losses.
The roughly 10MW of rooftop solar PV systems that have been installed in the past year by hotels, factories, medical colleges and flour mills to reduce their electricity bills is an example of how it is catching on.
Decentralised and distributed generation do have additional costs in the need for more extensive power networks. Extending high voltage transmission lines to evacuate power from smaller local projects adds cost.&nbsp;
However, every power plant and the transmission line to access it has aided Nepal in accelerating electrification and strengthening power infrastructure to the district where it is located.
As networks become more complex, utility-scale battery storage, and the availability of distributed storage in electric vehicles, the grid needs to be made smarter to better manage the tens of thousands of generation and storage points Nepal is likely to have in the coming years. &nbsp;
Bikash Pandey is Director of Clean Energy and Circular Economy at Winrock International. People Power is his new regular column in Nepali Times on global energy issues relevant to Nepal. &nbsp;

Bikash Pandey

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Decentralising power in Nepal

<figure><img width="1400" height="787" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110714114/636902ac9c7e80680e037c79jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>DHCF</figcaption></figure>Nepal’s planners have always faced an uphill task in ensuring energy self-sufficiency. The main issues in the past have been politics, the absence of a strategic vision, and policies that forced the country<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/how-they-kept-nepal-in-the-dark-ages/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> to suffer chronic power cuts</a>. But the country has a new beginning with a new government that has promised political stability and economic prosperity.The other challenge is an engineering one. Nepal may have one of the highest per capita hydropower potential, but most of the total 1044MW capacity today comes from run-of-river plants which depend on the water flow to turn turbines, and not from <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/Comment/storing-water-reservoir-Nepal,1042" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reservoirs</a> that can store monsoon water for the dry season.This means the country suffers from <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/How-%20to-%20avoid-power-cuts-this-winter-solar-energy-LED,3769" target="_blank" rel="noopener">shortfalls in production during winter when peak demand is highest</a>. There are also the daily peaks in the mornings and evenings that need to be covered by Nepal’s only storage dam, the 92MW Kulekhani cascade. Currently, Nepal meets nearly all its peak demand by <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/nepal-india-thermal-power,3570" target="_blank" rel="noopener">importing coal-fired electricity from India</a>.Peak load demand is traditionally met with electricity from hydropower reservoirs or power plants burning fossil fuels. But as countries try to meet carbon emission targets, there is pressure to adopt solar and other renewable energy sources to meet gap. <img width="736" height="1500" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110714114/636902af9c7e80680e037c7ajpeg.jpg" alt="">This is precisely what the <a href="http://www.dolmaimpact.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dolma Himalayan Climate Fund (DHCF)</a> is trying to do with its proposal to generate 150MW of solar power and store 20MW of it in battery systems to meet Nepal’s seasonal and daily peaks.Called Peak Energy Management (PEMa) System, the first phase of the project got approval from the Investment Board Nepal (IBN) last week to ‘time-shift’ daytime solar generated power to help meet evening peak demand, and also store surplus hydroelectricity generated during the night to partially meet the morning peak demand.Such generation and storage of solar power would have been prohibitively expensive till even two years ago. But the cost of storing energy in batteries dropped to less than $200/kWh from $1,200/kWh ten years ago. The price of photovoltaic cells have similarly plummeted to only $60/MWh compared to $400/MWh in 2008.The other advantage is that a project of this scale can be up and running within two years compared to the decade that it will take for Nepal’s next big reservoir projects like Budi Gandaki and Tanahu. Solar is also much more ecologically benign. There is a neat fit: Nepal’s peak demand is in winter when solar generation is highest because of cloudless skies.“We are not trying to replace hydro with solar, we just want a flexible and reliable system to meet peak demand by complementing hydropower,” explains Mike Winkel, Director of the Dolma Himalayan Climate Fund, an offshoot of the Dolma Impact Fund, the first international private equity fund for Nepal which has investments in the hydropower, technology, agriculture and health sectors.The Dolma Group was set up by Tim Gocher, a finance executive and professor specialising in energy. (<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/business/a-part-of-something-bigger/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Read interview</a>, and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zzp3Lh9zCNU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">watch Nepali Times Studio on our YouTube Channel</a>.)“The project is not going to replace hydro by any means, but solar does give Nepal another energy option which should directly offset some of the imports from India,” Gocher told Nepali Times.The PEMa serves the same purpose as a storage dam to cover peak winter demand, but unlike reservoirs it can be completed in two years, and can be quickly upscaled to 850MW in the second phase. This makes business sense because Nepal’s electricity demand is expected to grow at 7% per year, while peak deficit will continue for another ten years until the big dams come online.“It will buy Nepal time with short-term supply of power to meet peak time deficits,” says Sandip Shah, Managing Director of DHCF, an energy specialist who was formerly with the Norwegian SN Power. <img width="839" height="355" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110714114/636902b29c7e80680e037c7bjpeg.jpg" alt="">“My entire career has been with hydropower, and I have always grappled with making Nepal self-reliant in meeting daily and seasonal peak power deficits. With prices of solar and battery coming down, the technology is finally there to make Nepal energy independent,” explains Shah.When it comes into operation, possibly by 2020, PEMa will be one of the first utility scale battery operated grid power plants in the region, and it will immediately reduce Nepal’s power import bill as well as carbon footprint which has doubled due to the current import of coal-fired energy from India.At the Investment Board Nepal, CEO Maha Prasad Adhikari is also excited about the venture. “This is an innovative way to improve Nepal’s energy mix, and can support our peak-time and dry season demand within a short timeframe.”The Dolma Impact Fund will also be building on its investments in <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/reservoirs-of-suspicion/hydropower-geopolitics%20,3991" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal’s hydropower</a>, that include the 28.1MW Lower Likhu project in Okhaldhunga and the 6.4MW Suri Khola Project in Dolakha into which the Fund has injected $4.5 million and may invest more in hydropower or other solar projects.Winkel used to be with the global energy giant E.ON managing 60,000MW grids, and says PEMa is trying to find the optimal technology to meet the shortfall in Nepal’s peak energy supply. He adds: “Making renewable energy competitive has driven me for many years, and PEMa makes this vision a reality by combining state-of-the-art power generation and storage technologies to deliver clean, secure and competitive electricity for Nepal.”Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/how-they-kept-nepal-in-the-dark-ages/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">How they kept Nepal in the dark ages</a>, Ramesh Kumar<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/Comment/storing-water-reservoir-Nepal,1042" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Storing water</a>, Bishal Thapa<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/nepal-india-thermal-power,3570" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cloud with a dark lining</a>, Om Astha Rai

Kunda Dixit

Nepal turns to solar and batteries to meet peak demand

Earlier this month, Nepal received Rs1.6 billion from the World Bank as part of its <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/will-nepal-ever-be-paid-for-saving-trees">Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF)</a>, rewarding the country for increasing its carbon sink capacity. Nepal is the first in South Asia to benefit from this facility, and it is specifically to recompense the country for increasing forest cover in 13 Tarai districts between 2018-2024. “We are also trying to get another Rs13 billion from the facility while also preparing for free market-based carbon trading in the international market,” says Nabaraj Pudasaini of the REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries) Implementation Centre. Big emitters of greenhouse gases are under pressure to reduce their carbon emissions, and many have signed agreements to do so by investing in decarbonisation projects in developing countries. Countries that emit more than a specified amount of carbon would be able to buy emission rights from countries that emit less. Nepal is internationally known for its community forestry program which has been largely credited for <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/tree-mendous">increasing tree cover to over 45%</a> in less than three decades. But this achievement had not been adequately recognised or rewarded internationally before. Forests, especially in the tropics, absorb and store large amounts of carbon while releasing oxygen in a process known as photosynthesis. <a href="https://www.fao.org/forest-resources-assessment/en/">Preventing deforestation</a> and increasing canopy cover is considered a much more achievable goal than reducing emission in the scale necessary to limit global average temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. COP11 in Montreal in 2005 first proposed reducing carbon emissions by improving forest quality by halting degradation. By 2015, a new mechanism of financial assistance was created to help less developed countries with sustainable management of forests <a href="https://www.un-redd.org/">(called REDD+)</a>. Under this new mechanism, countries receive aid based on their efforts to prevent forest degradation and increase carbon sink, and in 2021 the World Bank was entrusted with implementing it. Nepal’s FCPF receipt this month was calculated on the basis of 2.4 million tons of carbon stored at a rate of $5 per ton. In the second phase, Nepal will receive more than Rs4 billion within the next year for storing an additional 7 million tons of carbon. Eighty per cent of this amount obtained from carbon trading needs to be spent on local beneficiaries and indigenous communities.&nbsp; But carbon trading is not easy, Nepal needs to prove that protected forests will not be destroyed in future.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241121091132_c8a381c9a95aa86fec558951650d97bb87914741f01766982ba2b086af001f16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20241121091132_c8a381c9a95aa86fec558951650d97bb87914741f01766982ba2b086af001f16" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="999" loading="lazy" alt="Greenbacks for greenery NT "> <figcaption>Photo: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption> </figure>  Explains carbon trading expert Yugan Manandhar. “Forests should be handed over to the community and shown that they are managed sustainably. Proving this will be particularly challenging; forest encroachment and degradation is rife in the Tarai.” <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/nepal-is-going-up-in-smoke">Deliberate forest fires</a> have also added to the challenge because they increase carbon emissions and reduce the sink capacity of forests. The basis for the amount that Nepal received was set five years ago by calculating the carbon reserves of forests in the 13 Tarai districts. In the meantime, sustainable forest management, tree plantation, forest destruction and erosion control were prioritised to increase carbon reserves in those forests. Nepal is signing another carbon trading agreement during the ongoing Baku climate conference. The <a href="https://www.leafcoalition.org/">Lowering Emissions by Accelerating Forest finance (LEAF Coalition) </a>proposes to sell the carbon stored in the forests of Bagmati, Gandaki and Lumbini provinces. For this, Nepal signed the letter of intent three years ago at COP26 in Glasgow. The target is to store 70 million tons of carbon in 32 million hectares of forest in the three provinces per which Nepal will receive Rs13 billion in four years at $10 per ton with provisions to increase the rate if various conditions are met. However, the agreement in itself doesn’t guarantee the amount. According to the targets set by Nepal, forest degradation should be stopped and carbon reserves increased by protecting tree cover. Preparations are also underway for clean air carbon trade because it has offset fossil fuel use by introducing 30,000 electric vehicles. Nepal has been selected for the first round to receive $40 million within one and a half years through the Clean Air System of the World Bank. Given that most of Nepal’s energy mix is from biomass, replacing them with electric stoves can significantly improve health by reducing indoor pollution as well as strengthen the country’s capacity for carbon trade. “Nepal's goal now is to sell carbon in the free market where carbon credits are bought and sold based on supply and demand in an open and transparent manner,” adds Pudasaini of the REDD Implementation Centre. “Nepal can now set its own price and bargain with interested buyer countries and organisations.” Lately, India has been discussing setting up a carbon market. Nepal has exported Rs12.72 billion worth of electricity to India so far this fiscal year, which can be traded under Nepal’s carbon market. “Carbon trading can create significant economic benefits for Nepal, which will help reinvest in development and environmental protection projects,” says Manandhar. “But we must prioritise sustainable management of forests, cutting older trees and allowing regrowth as well as promoting electric stoves and electric vehicles.”

Greenbacks for greenery

Khukri Rum is <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=3719#.WurBk6SFPIU">one of Nepal’s most iconic brands</a>, and is now launching a new Cask Series premium product to sell in Nepal and abroad. The Cask Series Smoked Finish Khukri Rum is a limited edition with only about 7,000 bottles, most of it for export and rest to be sold to rum connoisseurs in Nepal itself. Each bottle is numbered and will mention the cask from which it is derived. “We are working on taking a classic Nepali rum to a new luxury premium brand category, the Cask Series will only be produced this year with new product ranges in future,” explains Subash Lamichhane, managing director of Nepal Distilleries that first started making Khukri rum in 1959 in Balaju and has never stopped. Fermented from molasses in Bara district in the Tarai after the annual sugarcane harvest, the rum is matured for at least eight months during distillation. The distillery bottles the classic Khukri XXX, Coronation Khukri XXX, Khukri White Rum and Khukri Spiced Rum.&nbsp; The distillery is now adding this limited edition of its ‘Cask Series’. While the original rum is stored in huge wooden vats, the rum used for this more exclusive line is in smaller casks made either from oak or sal, with charred insides to give the rum a smoky flavour. The Cask Series rum is indeed smokier than the classic, while the spiced rum tastes toasty and mostly of cardamom. The company has a tasting suite with a master blender and tasters who have to approve the palate test.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241122131124_10b8ddca93b37b0348bf964b4f09e7fac6ef4e754cca6231368850539cd558e2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20241122131124_10b8ddca93b37b0348bf964b4f09e7fac6ef4e754cca6231368850539cd558e2" data-rendition-name="original" width="1498" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Khukri Rum"> </figure>  The packaging for the Cask Series is as special as the process. A sturdy patterned box that opens up to a black glass bottle with gold lettering, and an indication of which cask the rum is from. These are then shipped to premium customers around the world One of the reasons this is the more expensive premium line is because the casks are smaller than the vats and the blenders reject more than half of the rum in the casks when the aging period is complete. The trick for the blender is also to decide when to take the run out of the cask.&nbsp; Says Lamichhane: “If we have 25 casks, we expect to throw away about fifteen.”Over the decades, Nepal Distilleries have created and maintained a brand that feels quintessentially Nepali, and has served as Nepal’s ‘ambassador’ with exports to Germany, Korea, Belgium, Finland, the Czech Republic, besides the existing markets among Nepalis in the US, UK, Hong Kong and Australia. &nbsp;Its unique <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/khukri-rum-sharpens-its-act">khukri shaped bottle</a> first introduced for King Birendra’s coronation in 1975 has been a collector’s item. The bottle and rum have been a staple for Nepalis and visitors to take as gifts when they leave the country, and is used as decoration on bar tables around the world. Now, nearly 40 years later, even that bottle will soon be getting a makeover with a sharper design and sleeker handle. “Our bottle design has always been instantly recognisable, and it is,” says Lamichhane. The Himalayan restaurant at The Hague, for example, has a Khukri Coronation bottle adorning its bar (page 6-7). In Washington DC Himalayan Heritage Restaurant &amp; Bar offers ‘Nepalese Khukri Rum’ mojito in its drinks menu with fresh mint, soda water, lime juice and sugar syrup, for $12.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241122131124_b9474db3fc83c85845348dddc30c49652ee1f17229531867fa241de50849cedc.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20241122131124_b9474db3fc83c85845348dddc30c49652ee1f17229531867fa241de50849cedc" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Khukri Rum NT"> <figcaption>Christopher Armes, master blender of the Cask Series.</figcaption> </figure>  A distinct element of the award-winning <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/business/khukri-rum-gets-award">classic Khukri rum</a> is its burgundy colour from caramel sourced from cooking sugar and blended with the raw rum. The spirits are then stored in a warehouse with floor-to-ceiling vats. The vats are not just for storage, the wood in the vats imparts flavour into the rum, and removes a lot of the harshness. &nbsp; On a visit this week, the bottling room was just about to begin for the day and the production line was churning out different shapes and sizes of Khukri Rum bottles. Most of the process is automated, including screwing bottle caps, sticking labels, placing the government seal, and packaging. The only manual intervention is the quality control where bottles are held against the light to check for sediment and colour. A mural on the wall of the distillery in Balaju depicts the rum-making process. A lady slings sugarcane on her shoulder, the molasses is churned in a pot, water is channelled into the distillation process, cinnamon, cloves and cardamom are added to a container, and finally there is a bottle of the classic Khukri Rum against a Kathmandu backdrop.

Khukri goes premium with new rum

Turkish Airlines has introduced a new amenity kit collection designed in collaboration with French fashion house Lanvin for international business class passengers on flights more than five hours. It consists of five pieces designed for sustainability and elegance. Bags are reusable and will consist of Lanvin cosmetic products like hand and body lotions and lip balm. Eye masks and socks are made from recycled materials, earplugs are packaged in paper and the toothbrush is bamboo.

Turkish amenity kit

Nepal now generates a surplus of electricity and it is all from renewable hydropower. Nearly half the country is under forest cover. Despite meeting these decarbonisation goals, Nepal’s hydropower plants are threatened by increased risk due to climate impact.&nbsp; Till <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/when-it-rains-it-pours-ksqprbu3">28 September</a>, Nepal was <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/india-nepal-sign-power-exchange-deal">exporting just over 1,000MW</a> of electricity to power-hungry India, when flash floods and landslides unleashed by historically heavy rains damaged over 30 hydropower plants across the country, temporarily <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/power-to-the-people">slashing nearly half the power generation.</a> The 456MW Upper Tamakosi in Dolakha was the hardest hit and it will take six months and Rs2 billion to repair. This has significantly reduced exports as well as domestic generation. Two months later, Nepal has still not been unable to fully keep its export commitment, and is actually paying Rs100 million in fines to India. Thirty-seven existing and under construction projects under the Independent Power Producers' Association Nepal (IPPAN) suffered Rs2.5 billion in damage. One of them is the 22MW Bagmati project in Makwanpur which was almost completely buried in flood debris. Even before <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/60-dead-64-missing-in-nepal-floods">record-breaking rain in September</a>, 15 other hydropower projects had been damaged by floods. Last year, floods caused by heavy localised rain damaged 28 hydropower plants. World governments met in Baku for COP29 to discuss the Loss &amp; Damage Fund and the Adaptation Fund, but for countries like Nepal the commas and brackets are meaningless until they are turned into $ and €. And likelihood of adequate compensation for climate-related damage is a long way off, if ever. Nepal’s national strategy is to use its vast hydropower resource as clean energy to spur economic growth, job creation, and boost export revenue. But the plants are located in narrow Himalayan valleys prone to landslides and floods even at the best of times. Now, those <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/changing-climate-for-investment-in-nepal">risks have been heightened by weather extremes</a> due to climate breakdown. At present, Nepal generates over 3,300MW of clean hydropower, and the target is to reach 12,700MW in the next five years. Projects equivalent to 6,000MW are under construction or ready to start. The Ministry of Energy, Water Resources and Irrigation has an Energy Development Roadmap and Action Plan with the target of producing 28,500MW by 2035 by when more than half of it will be exported.&nbsp; “The climate crisis will further change the rainfall patterns making hydropower generation a big question mark in the future,” Manjeet Dhakal in Baku, who is also the Nepali adviser to the LDC Chair at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). “We are building hydropower projects on rivers without evaluating risk. This whole process needs to be reviewed and reconsidered.” The report of the National Adaptation Plan published by the Ministry of Forest and Environment last year mentions that hydropower production, transmission and distribution will be at risk from flash floods, debris flows, glacial lake outbursts and rising temperatures.&nbsp; This risk is not confined to Nepal. Average global temperatures have increased by 1.3°C compared to the pre-industrial era. Worse, the Himalayan mountains are warming faster than the global average by 0.7°C because of elevation-dependent warming. A study conducted by our own Department of Hydrology and Meteorology in 2017 showed that the average temperature in Nepal has increased in the last four decades. Scientists say this is leading to extreme weather unleashing floods and landslides on slopes already destabilized by seismicity.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241124071128_d22901a360e8958f606d80ffa21defba05a671f65afec65539dc21a6885d8345.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20241124071128_d22901a360e8958f606d80ffa21defba05a671f65afec65539dc21a6885d8345" data-rendition-name="original" width="1333" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Right climate for Nepal’s energy transition NT"> <figcaption>BIBLICAL RAIN: Photo taken during catastrophic rain on 27-28 September at the Upper Tamakosi project site that destroyed the control room, killing four staff and burying the sedimentation tanks. Photo: RSS</figcaption> </figure>  Increased atmospheric temperatures has made the monsoon rains more erratic. It does not rain when it is supposed to, and it comes down in torrents when it is not supposed to. The September floods happened two weeks after the monsoon was supposed to retreat from central Nepal. Kathmandu Valley received half its annual precipitation in just over a day. &nbsp; Winter precipitation has also failed, especially in the high mountains and trans-Himalayan valleys. Thirteen of the past 19 years experienced winter drought. This impacts on dry season flows of the rivers, reducing hydropower generation. Nepal’s power capacity normally goes down by one-fourth during winter, but the gap is widening. The Kabeli corridor could only generate 20MW November-March even though plants there have an installed capacity of 200MW. Similarly, Upper Tamakosi only produced 65MW at most against its 456MW capacity last winter. The Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) pays producers double the price for winter electricity, Rs8.40 per unit. Even though winter operation is highly profitable the rivers run low and NEA has to import from India to meet the winter demand. “This is not just a weather problem but a serious challenge also for the country's energy future, good climate-friendly design should be combined with policy and effective implementation,” says Subarna Das Shrestha, a hydropower investor and CEO of Sanima Mai Hydropower. “Insurance premiums have gone up as well, and settlement for damage is not timely.” <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/climate-risk-to-hydropower-investment">Hydropower investment</a> at one time was regarded as having a high rate of return. Now, some investors have become <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-smarter-himalayan-infrastructure">wary of the risks involved</a>. Says IPPAN’s Uttam Blon Lama: “Hydropower projects expected to give stable returns are now looking risky. Not only is climate adaptation design and planning expensive, but future repair and maintenance costs will also skyrocket.” Nepal has only one storage type dam <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/rivers-be-dammed">in Kulekhani</a> and another one is being built in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/missing-pieces-of-the-hydropower-jigsaw">Tanahu</a>, but they are also at risk. In September, the sluice gates of Kulekhani Dam had to be opened causing loss of life and destruction downstream. Nepal has to learn lessons from the deadly collapse of the $1 billion <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/sikkim-flood-is-warning-to-nepal">Chungthang Dam in Sikkim</a> in October 2023 cause by a glacial lake burst. Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in Nepal pose potentially catastrophic risk to infrastructure. The <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lives-on-the-line-in-the-himalaya">Thame flood in August</a> was a relatively minor debris flow that damaged half of this village in the Everest region when <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/climate-breakdown-linked-to-thame-flood">two glacial lakes at 4,760m burst</a>. Luckily there was no loss of life. Of the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lives-on-the-line-in-the-himalaya">47 high-risk glacial lakes</a> in the eastern Nepal Himalaya, 21 are in Nepal and the rest are in rivers in China that are tributaries of the Arun and Bhote Kosi where Nepal has major hydropower plants under construction, or planned.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241123021128_b596cd8520c57a6c5476031e7a3ea6510f26b464c4d5351d2bc10f6f7d6b70d8.jpg" data-media-id="editor_14" data-image-id="20241123021128_b596cd8520c57a6c5476031e7a3ea6510f26b464c4d5351d2bc10f6f7d6b70d8" data-rendition-name="original" width="871" height="648" loading="lazy" alt="Page 10-11 map #1236 NT"> </figure>  Global temperature rise is accelerating the melting of Himalayan snow and ice, increasing the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/living-below-nepal-s-melting-mountains">number and size of glacial lakes</a> so that we do not even have names for them. Imja Tso did not even exist in the old trekking maps until 25 years ago, but is now a 2km long lake. “Natural moraine dams in the mountains are weak, and the projects downstream can face major destruction if they burst, and the risk will only increase in future,” warns climatologist Arun Bhakta Shrestha at the <a href="https://www.icimod.org/">International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD)</a>. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/terrifying-assessment-of-a-himalayan-melting">An ICIMOD assessment in 2019</a> projected that if present heating trends continue, as they probably will, the Himalaya will lose two-thirds of our glaciers by the end of this century. “Generally speaking, hydropower developers hand over the project to the government after 30 years but by that time given the climate risks, they may not be an asset anymore,” says Manjeet Dhakal. Indeed, the cascade of expensive projects India is building on the Arun River are supposed to be handed back to Nepal in 25 years, but there is a big ‘if’ about whether they will survive that long. &nbsp;&nbsp; Planning of hydropower projects is still based on historical hydrological data, and does not take into account future temperature rise and its consequences. Investors, on the other hand, say that planning hydropower projects with climate components would make them even more expensive.&nbsp; “It’s not that we aren’t preparing for climate risk, we design keeping in mind the once-in-100-year flood,” says Blon of IPPAN. “But if we start designing based on once in 1,000 years flood, the cost would be so high that we won’t be able to build them at all.” Nonetheless, Subarna Das Shrestha of Sanima Mai Hydropower says that there is no option but to go for climate smart infrastructure despite the higher cost. Sanima Mai's powerhouse, for example, is completely underground. The strategy could also be to spread the risk by building less expensive plants located on rivers all over the country. Nepal is also diversifying away from its sole reliance on hydroelectricity, which at present supplies 92% of the power in the grid. Most of the rest comes from solar plants, where the total potential has not even been scratched. &nbsp; This article is brought to you by <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/" target="_blank">Nepali Times</a>, in collaboration with <a href="https://inpsjapan.com/en/" target="_blank">INPS Japan</a> and <a href="https://sgi-peace.org/" target="_blank">Soka Gakkai International</a>, in consultative status with UN ECOSOC.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240630110640_30c3782f9c09219bf1c249b51483a3cfb7a53a06d117d2aebd23ca7080d12758.jpg" data-media-id="editor_21" data-image-id="20240630110640_30c3782f9c09219bf1c249b51483a3cfb7a53a06d117d2aebd23ca7080d12758" data-rendition-name="original" width="680" height="103" loading="lazy" alt="SDG logo"> </figure>  &nbsp;

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