<img width="1400" height="840" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111152/636b86e59c7e80680e06787cjpeg.jpg" alt=""/>Ever since Nepal emerged as a nation-state nearly two-and-half centuries ago, one of its guiding principles has been to socially distance itself from empires to the north and south. 
As these powers rose and fell, Nepal’s rulers adjusted. We fought, lost, and learnt to live with the British in India. When India became independent in 1947, the anglophile Rana regime also faded away. 
Kathmandu maintained a difficult neutrality during the Sino-India war of 1962 because Nepali soldiers were at the frontlines, fighting and dying on behalf of one neighbour against another friendly neighbour. 
Throughout the Cold War, Nepal’s royal rulers walked the tight rope and even managed to take advantage of global and regional rivalries. And when China fell out with the Soviet Union, Nepal’s Communists split into little pieces. Henry Kissinger’s Beijing visit in 1975 and India’s affinity with the Soviet Bloc, meant Nepal’s kings had to keep tweaking the yam-between-stones doctrine. 
In today’s multipolar world, as tectonic forces rearrange geopolitics, Nepal is wedged once more. Last June’s deadly clash between Indian and Chinese troops in Ladakh’s Galwan Valley came just after Nepal and India also engaged in a war of words over Limpiyadhura-Kalapani.
In Kathmandu, Prime Minister K P Oli used the dispute with India to stoke up nationalist fervour. Not to needle India so much, but to blunt <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-communists-on-verge-of-split-again/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">a mutiny within his own party</a>. That <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/its-broke-fix-it/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">power struggle has</a> continued non-stop through many twists and turns right up to hearings in the Supreme Court this week over PM Oli’s second dissolution of the House and call for early elections.
An increasingly isolated and cornered Oli has been trying to mend fences with New Delhi. Even while the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/is-china-now-micro-managing-nepal-politics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Chinese Ambassador</a> tried to patch up cracks in the NCP late last year, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/new-delhis-new-dealings-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">India’s spy chief, army chief,</a> foreign secretary and senior BJP advisers all <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/indias-multi-pronged-line-to-right-nepal-ties/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">jet-dashed to Kathmandu</a> in close succession. The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/oli-vs-dahal-1-upmanship/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">NCP disintegrated</a>, and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-sets-elections-in-middle-of-pandemic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the UML split.</a>
The more precarious Oli’s position looked, the more he tried to get back into New Delhi’s good books. He started waving the saffron flag, declared that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/k-p-oli-rams-it-home/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Lord Ram was born in Chitwan</a>, draped Pashupati in a Rs330 million gold pendant, and held forth in Hindi to pro-<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/narendra-modi-nepal-india-ties,1792" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Narendra Modi</a> Indian tv channels to trace India-Nepal ties to the Vedic era. Oli was coming across not as a politician, but a theologian.
Oli is being pummelled in Nepal for <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/interpreting-article-76-5-of-nepals-constitution/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">his second dissolution of the House</a>, a move squarely denounced as authoritarian and unconstitutional. Yet, through it all, he has had the backing of the Mahanta Thakur <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/jsp-as-nepals-king-maker-party/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">faction of the JSP</a>, which is itself split between pro-and anti-BJP factions. 
The perception in Kathmandu is that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-modi-fied-oli/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Oil has been ‘Modi-fied’</a>, and the elections will be a way for the Hindu-Right to rise, scrap secularism, declare Nepal a Hindu state, and perhaps even restore the monarchy.
It used to be that when it drizzled in Delhi people unfurled umbrellas in Kathmandu. It is now the other way round. In the past week there has been a barrage of op-eds in India’s English press by three former Indian ambassadors to Nepal. First, it was <a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/opinion/in-kathmandu-a-threat-to-democracy-101621781046854.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Ranjit Rae</a> in the Hindustan Times on 24 May (In Kathmandu, a Threat To Democracy), then <a href="https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/the-long-shadow-of-political-turmoil-in-nepal/article34652692.ece" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Rakesh Sood</a> wrote in The Hindu on 27 May (The Long Shadow of Political Turmoil in Nepal), after that on 29 May <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/nepal-government-parliament-dissolved-pm-k-p-oli-7334814/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Shyam Saran</a> came out in The Indian Express (India Must Engage in Nepal without Interfering). On the same day, <a href="https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/democracy-at-stake-in-nepal/article34670930.ece" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Baburam Bhattarai</a> chimed in with a co-authored comment in The Hindu.
All the pieces had similar arguments, some even had identical sentences. Shyam Saran was the most blunt, writing: ‘India cannot but be engaged politically with events in Nepal, but engagement is not the same as intervention. India and the government must firmly and unambiguously declare that it does not support the revival of the monarchy, which has already been rejected by its people.’
Saran goes on to say that ‘Kathmandu, if not the whole of Nepal’ is convinced that Oli has promised the BJP that he will restore the Hindu monarchy, and keep the Chinese out. Saran urges the Indian government not to remain silent. 
Nepal appears to be caught up in a proxy war for India’s soul between the BJP and the left-liberal secularists. Kathmandu is in unfamiliar terrain: no longer do we have to balance India vs China, or the US vs USSR, now we have to learn to tread carefully and not be sucked into India’s bitter internal ideological confrontation.
It is not just the B.1.167.2 virus variant that is coming to Nepal from India, we are also being infected by its toxic politics. It is unwise for Oli to hitch his wagon to Modi, or for his enemies with anyone else in India. Nepal’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/fight-amidst-the-ruins/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">internal squabbles</a> are our own, if we value our sovereignty we should keep outsiders out of it.

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A yam between two Indias

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131140/636a4ecf9c7e80680e04fcd6jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="933"/><figcaption>Pic: BIKRAM RAI</figcaption></figure>When Nepal’s politicians were asked to list their assets, many disclosed property, bank balances and jewelry. Among his possessions, Nepal’s well-read Foreign Minister Pradeep Gyawali declared that he owned 2,500 books. The soft-spoken Gyawali now has the responsibility of steering the country’s foreign policy at a time of heightened geopolitical polarisation in the region. Sound bites from an interview this week:<ul><li>Nepal used to be a back-bencher in international fora. Now we are being seen and heard. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/to-davos-with-hammer-and-sickle/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Prime Minister’s participation at Davos</a> and hosting the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/bimstec-facelift/">BIMSTEC Summit</a> in Kathmandu has raised Nepal’s international profile.</li> <li>It could be that some cannot digest Nepal’s higher international engagement and are uneasy about it. But there is no question of Nepal ever joining any strategic alliance.</li> <li>We look at our own national interest, and we also try to make sure that our decisions and involvement do not hurt the interests of our neighbours, development partners or other friendly countries.</li> <li>Our long-term foreign policy goals have not changed, but we are trying to adapt to new geopolitical realities by analysing them and formulating new policies of engagement.</li> <li>We want to benefit from the economic growth and development of our two neighbours.</li> <li>We are conveying to China and India that a prosperous and stable Nepal is also in their interest.</li> <li>We are telling our development partners that Nepal is a safe country for foreign investment, from where it is easy to export to other countries.</li> <li>We are very sensitive to the fact that 4 million of our young men and women are working abroad and through diplomacy we want to ensure their security, rights and respect.</li> <li>In the 1990s and 2000s many Latin American countries went nearly bankrupt and had to be bailed out. It was not called a ‘debt trap’, none of them had loans from China.</li> <li>If it is in the national interest, we can take not just aid, but also loans. But if it is against our interest, we will not even take assistance.</li> <li>The suspicions about the Indo-Pacific is a storm in a tea cup. Our Chinese friends are not really worried, they are sure that Nepal will not allow anti-Chinese activities.</li> <li>We do not lean more or less on any one side. We don’t try to compare the relationship we have with our two neighbours.</li></ul>"Nepal has spread its wings"Full Interview with Minister of Foreign Affairs Pradeep GyawaliNepali Times: There have been transformative changes in international diplomacy and geopolitics. But Nepal seems to be stuck.Pradeep Gyawali: Every country has a set of long-term goals, and some flexible policies that change with the times. Nation states have permanent values like sovereignty, territorial integrity, dignity and independence. These beliefs do not change with changes in governments, they do not even change with a change in governance systems. Our adherence to the concept of panchashila, or the United Nations declaration does not change. That is why we also look into our fixed goals and immediate policies based on changes in international and regional relations. We have adapted to new realities from the standpoint of our national interest.Will this be enough for Nepal to reach its goal of being a middle-income country in the next ten years?We have to keep in mind global changes, and specifically the geopolitical, economic, demographic changes in Asia. We have to adapt to the fact that our two neighbours are moving forward rapidly. For this, we do not play favourites, or let our relations with one country be at the expense of another. We want to benefit from the economic growth and development of our two neighbours. We are conveying to China and India that a prosperous and stable Nepal is also in their interest. We are telling our development partners that Nepal is a safe country for foreign investment, from where it is easy to export to other countries. We are very sensitive to the fact that 4 million of our young men and women are working abroad and through diplomacy, we want to ensure their security, rights and dignity. And we will extend our involvement and cooperation with multilateral agencies.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131140/636a4ed29c7e80680e04fcd7jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="1161">The Indian media and intelligentsia are accusing Nepal of tilting towards China.Both our neighbours are equally important for us. We are not tilting more or less in any direction. We don’t compare our relationship with either of them.  Neither of our neighbours should forget that Nepal has neighbours on both sides, and ask us to deal only with one of them.There is lot of talk about Nepal falling into the Chinese debt trap.I keep reminding people that in the 1990s and 2000s many Latin American countries nearly went bankrupt and had to be bailed out. It was not called a ‘debt trap’, none of them had loans from China. Greece still has not been able to come out of its economic crisis, and I don’t think they are in trouble because they had Chinese investments. These accusations are not based on an objective economic analysis, but a negative attitude towards the rise of China and its political system. Besides, Nepal has the ability to decide what is in its national interest and what is not.  If it is in the national interest we can take not just aid, but also loans. But if it is not in our interest, we will not even take assistance.And China seems to be suspicious of Nepal’s involvement in the Indo-Pacific Alliance. Can a Nepal that is already a member of the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/chinese-ambassador-addresses-bri-conference/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BRI</a> risk being involved in the Indo-Pacific?The suspicions about the Indo-Pacific is a storm in a tea cup. Our Chinese friends are not really worried, they are sure that Nepal will not allow anti-Chinese activities. The first official visit by a Nepali foreign minister to Washington recently, and the first American visit at the level of the foreign minister to Nepal have added a new milestone to Nepal-US relations. The Japanese foreign minister visited Nepal after many years, we have also deepened our relations with India, the EU and other development partners.  Nepal has increased its involvement in the international arena. The Prime Minister’s recent Europe visit has sent the message that Nepal is no longer what it used to be in South Asia, it has spread its wings. It could be that some cannot digest Nepal’s higher international engagement and are uneasy about it. There is no question of Nepal ever joining any strategic alliance. We look at our own national interest, and we also try to make sure that our decisions and involvement does not hurt the interests of our neighbours, development partners or other friendly countries.What are the main achievements during your tenure?During the conflict, Nepal’s economic development suffered a setback, it affected our foreign policy and we became an arena for proxies. Now, with the end of the political transition and political stability, we are fixing our mistakes and moving ahead.  Nepal used to be a back-bencher in the international fora. Now, we are being seen and heard. The Prime Minister’s participation at Davos, his one-on-one meeting with G-20 leaders sent the message that Nepal should now be heard on the world stage. Recently, the head of the IFC said that Nepal was a ‘rising star’, so that must carry some weight.We have also restored our relations with our neighbours, after overcoming difficult times. Others have now realised that they must take Nepal along. Despite obstacles, we hosted the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/connecting-Bangladesh-China-India-Nepal,2966" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BIMSTEC Summit</a> and the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/labour-pain/">Colombo Process Ministerial Conference</a> in Kathmandu. I would consider the past year quite successful.Interview by Hari Prakash Chand and Binu PokhrelRead Also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-has-more-self-respect/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">“Nepal has more self-respect”</a>, Nepali Times<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/yam-between-3-boulders/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YAM BETWEEN 3 BOULDERS</a>, Editorial<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-now-has-to-balance-not-just-india-and-china-but-also-the-west/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal now has to balance not just India and China, but also the West</a>, Bhairaja Pandey<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/eminently-beneficial-for-india-and-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Eminently beneficial for India and Nepal</a>, Ajit Baral

"Nepal is now seen and heard"

It has been an accepted practice that any Nepali leader makes a symbolic visit south to India after assuming office. But Prime Minister Oli's India visit this week is quite different although it looks like he is just following the tradition.The reason has a lot more to do with New Delhi’s past behaviour towards Nepal. It has now realised its policy was counter-productive and is laying down the red carpet for the leader of a Red coalition.After its failure to get a constitution that suited its interest in 2015, New Delhi imposed a five-month <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/As-It-Happens/blockade-that-benefitted-no-one,660">Blockade</a> on Nepal. Oli became prime minister just as the Blockade started to bite on a country still reeling from the aftermath of the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/kundadixit/2015/05/27/a-month-that-felt-like-a-year/">April 2015 earthquake</a>, and took a strong stand against India. Standing up to India became Oli’s successful electoral platform, and it propelled him back to power in partnership with the Maoists two months ago. In fact, the more New Delhi tried to pressure Oli, the more he bounced back like a rubber ball.In India itself there has been growing criticism from the opposition about Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s failure to stop Chinese inroads in the neighbourhood, including in Nepal. The Indian media analysts have been paranoid about Kathmandu tilting towards the Chinese axis.Prime Minister Modi has spoken to Oli several times after his election, and dispatched Minister of External Affairs<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/aftershocks-of-the-blockade/"> Sushma Swaraj to Kathmandu on a fence-mending mission</a>. New Delhi knows that it will not gain anything by weakening a prime minister who is probably Nepal’s most powerful elected leader in history.But the Oli visit is also an opportunity for Nepal to set relations with India on a more even keel. It is time to reboot bilateral relations and put the past behind us. Prime Minister Oli need not sign any new agreements, he just has to make sure past agreements are implemented, and try to resolve the growing trade imbalance. That itself will be an important gauge of the success of this mission.Shekhar Kharel is a freelance journalist.Read also:' <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/what-is-different-this-time/">What's different this time?</a>', Om Astha Rai<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/national-interest-or-nationalism/">National interest or nationalism</a>,  Editorial<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-has-more-self-respect/">Nepal has more self respect</a>

Red carpet for a red leader

<figure><a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/1"></a></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710110/6368c9589c7e80680e02f2a9jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="920"/><figcaption>#1 (2000)</figcaption><figure><a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/213"></a></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710110/6368c95b9c7e80680e02f2aajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="993"><figcaption> </figcaption><figure><a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/226"></a></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710110/6368c95e9c7e80680e02f2abjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="1002"><figcaption> </figcaption><figure><a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/417"></a></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710110/6368c9609c7e80680e02f2acjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="993"><figcaption> </figcaption><figure><a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/575"></a></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710110/6368c9639c7e80680e02f2adjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="982"><figcaption> </figcaption><figure><a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue_archive/174"></a></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710110/6368c9659c7e80680e02f2aejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="938"><figcaption> </figcaption><figure><a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue_archive/204"></a></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710110/6368c9689c7e80680e02f2afjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="936"><figcaption> </figcaption><figure><a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue_archive/255"></a></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710110/6368c96b9c7e80680e02f2b0jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="946"><figcaption> </figcaption>Prime Minister K P Oli is in New Delhi this weekend, following a tradition laid down by predecessors to first visit India after assuming office. Oli himself had visited New Delhi in 2016, after India lifted the five-month <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/autopsy-of-a-blockade%20,2863">Blockade</a>.So, what is new this time? Not much.Nepal has had 12 leaders, some of them serving more than once, since 2000. India has seen three Prime Ministers in this period, with each hosting multiple Nepali PMs and a king.In every Nepali leader’s India visit, the two countries have dwelt on the same issues: building trust, strengthening bilateral ties and agreeing on large projects that need to materialise.Oli’s visit will not be any different even though he has emerged as the strongest PM in Nepal’s recent history. And he is going to India after his strong nationalistic stance won his party <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2017/12/09/the-rise-of-the-red/">a landslide victory</a> in elections.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710110/6368c96e9c7e80680e02f2b1jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>“Like any Nepali PM’s visit to India in the past, it will be yet another courtesy visit,” concludes political analyst Lok Raj Baral. “It will not change anything fundamentally.”Ahead of his three-day visit, Oli told Parliament on Tuesday that he will push to implement past agreements instead of signing new ones: Pancheshwar, Tarai roads, post-earthquake reconstruction loans.Most of the other political and development issues that Oli may raise  this time have been discussed over and again in every Nepali PM’s India visit in the past, as shown by the Nepali Times coverage (above).The two MPs will remotely lay the foundation of the 900MW Arun III hydroelectricity project in Province 1, but that is not a new project either. In fact, Oli’s own UML party had sabotaged the World Bank-funded Arun III in the early ‘90s. Pancheshwar has been in limbo for over 20 years, and it is slow going on the Tarai roads.Oli is sure to broach his pet subject: inland water transport even though Foreign Affairs Minister Pradeep Gyawali has ruled out any MoU citing lack of preparation. Oli told Parliament that his visit will not bring shame to Nepalis, implying that he will not discuss the contents of the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/new-constitution-has-regressive-flaws-but-can-improve-it-as-we-go-along,2363">Constitution</a>.Even in 2016, Modi had met a resolute Oli who was unwilling to listen to New Delhi on amending the state as demanded by the Madhesi parties. This time he will enjoy greater leverage when he sits down with Modi, who seems to have realised that his policy to isolate Oli has backfired.In an <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-has-more-self-respect/">interview with Nepali Times last week</a>, Foreign Affairs Minister Gyawali said India might announce a special package of support to Nepal as a goodwill gesture. Even if Oli succeeds in rebuilding mutual trust and rebooting relations with India, that will be quite an achievement.Read also:'<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/guest-editorial/red-carpet-for-a-red-leader/">Red carpet for a red leader</a>', Shekhar Kharel<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/national-interest-or-nationalism/">National interest or nationalism</a> , Editorial<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-has-more-self-respect/">Nepal has more self respect</a>

What is different this time?

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A yam between two Indias

"Nepal is now seen and heard"

Red carpet for a red leader

What is different this time?