Described by its founding king 260 years ago as a “yam between two boulders” pressed on both sides by the Chinese Empire and British India, the metaphor has metamorphosed in the new geopolitical reality that Nepal faces. The gradual withdrawal of a distracted West, the rise of India and China, and emerging power of the Gulf states is also changing Nepal’s foreign policy outlook, and forcing it to reimagine its place in a multilateral world. After Donald Trump became president for the second time this year, geopolitics is going through a tectonic shift. Washington’s relations with New Delhi have recently become strained after Trump took credit for the ceasefire between India and Pakistan in May, and Trump dining with Pakistan Army chief Asim Munir at the White House. Then, Trump threatened to impose an extra tariff on 10 members of the BRICS bloc, which includes India. “Recent developments between India and the US are a result of President Trump’s reactive approach that did not meet Indian prime minister Modi’s expectations,” explains international relations expert Prakash Bhandari. If this pushes India closer to China, it may tip Kathmandu’s precarious balancing act between Beijing and New Delhi. Although Nepal has not suffered punitive US trade tariffs like other Asian countries, the closure of USAID projects and imminent mass deportation of Nepali TPS migrants will have far-reaching consequences. “There are multiple global crises happening at the same time. Any attempt to change Nepal’s non-aligned principle during this complicated phase of world politics will push us into a deep quagmire,” warns foreign policy expert Nishchal Nath Pandey. Shifting geopolitics could force Nepal to review its policy of neutrality and equidistance between its two giant neighbours to pursue a more pragmatic economic diplomacy that focuses on foreign investment, trade, tourism, and labour export. Experts have often joked that Nepal is not “landlocked but India-locked” since trans-Himalayan connectivity is much more difficult than the open border to the south. This has historically made Nepal more economically and politically dependent on India. “Whether like it or not, we are likely to lean more towards India,” says Santosh Sharma Poudel from Nepal Institute for Policy Research. “Even Chinese leaders have told Nepal’s rulers to maintain friendly relations with India.” This may therefore be the time for Nepal to look beyond the ‘two boulders’ to promote foreign direct investment from countries like Japan, Korea, the Gulf states and Europe. Besides serving as a destination for Nepali migrants, countries like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Oman have untapped investment and tourism opportunities. “Sectors such as hydropower and trade have immense investment potential from countries beyond our neighbours,” says Poudel. Even so, the geopolitical reality is that India and China will always loom large. India has barely tolerated increased Chinese presence in Nepal’s hydropower and infrastructure, refusing to buy electricity and allow flights from projects with Chinese involvement. Nepal has felt squeezed by the two neighbours both when their relations are strained after border skirmishes, or when their relations are good.  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025072809074_febdc8038cb5d4bca3d6fe5abafd2d0aa79ab6b9cafec54b8b58037514908220.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025072809074_febdc8038cb5d4bca3d6fe5abafd2d0aa79ab6b9cafec54b8b58037514908220" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Looking beyond two boulders"><figcaption>Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Nepal, the first by a Chinese head of state in 23 years. Photo: NEPALI TIMES ARCHIVE</figcaption></figure>  India’s post-earthquake blockade in 2015 still rankles. Nepalis remember that China did not support their claim to the Limpiyadhura region, and that Beijing retroactively announced that Pokhara airport was under its Belt Road Initiative (BRI) even though Nepal took a hefty loan for it. The Sino-US Cold War has also affected Nepal with the orchestrated opposition in 2021 to the $500 million Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) project to upgrade transmission lines and highways. After Trump, the MCC faced uncertainty but it has been continued possibly because it is seen in Washington as a counter to China’s BRI in Nepal. The lesson is that Nepal cannot expect magnanimity or charity from its big neighbours, or the United States. Every country is looking out for its own national interest, and so should Nepal by asserting its independence and improving its governance to develop the economy. “India has its own place and China has its own place in terms of their relations with Nepal,” says Indra Adhikari from Policy Research Institute. “But it is true that Nepal has not been able to leverage its relations with both neighbours.” This does not mean playing New Delhi off against Beijing, but to get both powers to be twin locomotives pulling Nepal’s economy in the same direction. What Nepal definitely cannot afford is to have the two engines tugging the country in opposite directions. Adhikari adds, “It is natural that each country sees its own interest while investing in Nepal. We should be able to establish an environment of trust for countries which want to invest.” With Nepal on the pathway to transitioning from a Least Developed Country to a developing country by November 2026, it will have to plan for loss of foreign aid and higher interest rates on loans from international agencies. This means greater emphasis on improving the foreign investment climate to create domestic jobs and boost the economy. This requires a change in the mindset of Nepal’s politicians to understand the transformed geopolitical reality, and strategise accordingly. But, says Nischal Nath Pandey: “We have changed our political system often, but our geography has not changed.”

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Looking beyond two boulders

<img width="1400" height="840" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111152/636b86e59c7e80680e06787cjpeg.jpg" alt=""/>Ever since Nepal emerged as a nation-state nearly two-and-half centuries ago, one of its guiding principles has been to socially distance itself from empires to the north and south. 
As these powers rose and fell, Nepal’s rulers adjusted. We fought, lost, and learnt to live with the British in India. When India became independent in 1947, the anglophile Rana regime also faded away. 
Kathmandu maintained a difficult neutrality during the Sino-India war of 1962 because Nepali soldiers were at the frontlines, fighting and dying on behalf of one neighbour against another friendly neighbour. 
Throughout the Cold War, Nepal’s royal rulers walked the tight rope and even managed to take advantage of global and regional rivalries. And when China fell out with the Soviet Union, Nepal’s Communists split into little pieces. Henry Kissinger’s Beijing visit in 1975 and India’s affinity with the Soviet Bloc, meant Nepal’s kings had to keep tweaking the yam-between-stones doctrine. 
In today’s multipolar world, as tectonic forces rearrange geopolitics, Nepal is wedged once more. Last June’s deadly clash between Indian and Chinese troops in Ladakh’s Galwan Valley came just after Nepal and India also engaged in a war of words over Limpiyadhura-Kalapani.
In Kathmandu, Prime Minister K P Oli used the dispute with India to stoke up nationalist fervour. Not to needle India so much, but to blunt <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-communists-on-verge-of-split-again/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">a mutiny within his own party</a>. That <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/its-broke-fix-it/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">power struggle has</a> continued non-stop through many twists and turns right up to hearings in the Supreme Court this week over PM Oli’s second dissolution of the House and call for early elections.
An increasingly isolated and cornered Oli has been trying to mend fences with New Delhi. Even while the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/is-china-now-micro-managing-nepal-politics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Chinese Ambassador</a> tried to patch up cracks in the NCP late last year, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/new-delhis-new-dealings-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">India’s spy chief, army chief,</a> foreign secretary and senior BJP advisers all <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/indias-multi-pronged-line-to-right-nepal-ties/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">jet-dashed to Kathmandu</a> in close succession. The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/oli-vs-dahal-1-upmanship/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">NCP disintegrated</a>, and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-sets-elections-in-middle-of-pandemic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the UML split.</a>
The more precarious Oli’s position looked, the more he tried to get back into New Delhi’s good books. He started waving the saffron flag, declared that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/k-p-oli-rams-it-home/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Lord Ram was born in Chitwan</a>, draped Pashupati in a Rs330 million gold pendant, and held forth in Hindi to pro-<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/narendra-modi-nepal-india-ties,1792" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Narendra Modi</a> Indian tv channels to trace India-Nepal ties to the Vedic era. Oli was coming across not as a politician, but a theologian.
Oli is being pummelled in Nepal for <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/interpreting-article-76-5-of-nepals-constitution/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">his second dissolution of the House</a>, a move squarely denounced as authoritarian and unconstitutional. Yet, through it all, he has had the backing of the Mahanta Thakur <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/jsp-as-nepals-king-maker-party/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">faction of the JSP</a>, which is itself split between pro-and anti-BJP factions. 
The perception in Kathmandu is that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-modi-fied-oli/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Oil has been ‘Modi-fied’</a>, and the elections will be a way for the Hindu-Right to rise, scrap secularism, declare Nepal a Hindu state, and perhaps even restore the monarchy.
It used to be that when it drizzled in Delhi people unfurled umbrellas in Kathmandu. It is now the other way round. In the past week there has been a barrage of op-eds in India’s English press by three former Indian ambassadors to Nepal. First, it was <a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/opinion/in-kathmandu-a-threat-to-democracy-101621781046854.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Ranjit Rae</a> in the Hindustan Times on 24 May (In Kathmandu, a Threat To Democracy), then <a href="https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/the-long-shadow-of-political-turmoil-in-nepal/article34652692.ece" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Rakesh Sood</a> wrote in The Hindu on 27 May (The Long Shadow of Political Turmoil in Nepal), after that on 29 May <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/nepal-government-parliament-dissolved-pm-k-p-oli-7334814/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Shyam Saran</a> came out in The Indian Express (India Must Engage in Nepal without Interfering). On the same day, <a href="https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/democracy-at-stake-in-nepal/article34670930.ece" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Baburam Bhattarai</a> chimed in with a co-authored comment in The Hindu.
All the pieces had similar arguments, some even had identical sentences. Shyam Saran was the most blunt, writing: ‘India cannot but be engaged politically with events in Nepal, but engagement is not the same as intervention. India and the government must firmly and unambiguously declare that it does not support the revival of the monarchy, which has already been rejected by its people.’
Saran goes on to say that ‘Kathmandu, if not the whole of Nepal’ is convinced that Oli has promised the BJP that he will restore the Hindu monarchy, and keep the Chinese out. Saran urges the Indian government not to remain silent. 
Nepal appears to be caught up in a proxy war for India’s soul between the BJP and the left-liberal secularists. Kathmandu is in unfamiliar terrain: no longer do we have to balance India vs China, or the US vs USSR, now we have to learn to tread carefully and not be sucked into India’s bitter internal ideological confrontation.
It is not just the B.1.167.2 virus variant that is coming to Nepal from India, we are also being infected by its toxic politics. It is unwise for Oli to hitch his wagon to Modi, or for his enemies with anyone else in India. Nepal’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/fight-amidst-the-ruins/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">internal squabbles</a> are our own, if we value our sovereignty we should keep outsiders out of it.

A yam between two Indias

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131140/636a4ecf9c7e80680e04fcd6jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="933"/><figcaption>Pic: BIKRAM RAI</figcaption></figure>When Nepal’s politicians were asked to list their assets, many disclosed property, bank balances and jewelry. Among his possessions, Nepal’s well-read Foreign Minister Pradeep Gyawali declared that he owned 2,500 books. The soft-spoken Gyawali now has the responsibility of steering the country’s foreign policy at a time of heightened geopolitical polarisation in the region. Sound bites from an interview this week:<ul><li>Nepal used to be a back-bencher in international fora. Now we are being seen and heard. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/to-davos-with-hammer-and-sickle/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Prime Minister’s participation at Davos</a> and hosting the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/bimstec-facelift/">BIMSTEC Summit</a> in Kathmandu has raised Nepal’s international profile.</li> <li>It could be that some cannot digest Nepal’s higher international engagement and are uneasy about it. But there is no question of Nepal ever joining any strategic alliance.</li> <li>We look at our own national interest, and we also try to make sure that our decisions and involvement do not hurt the interests of our neighbours, development partners or other friendly countries.</li> <li>Our long-term foreign policy goals have not changed, but we are trying to adapt to new geopolitical realities by analysing them and formulating new policies of engagement.</li> <li>We want to benefit from the economic growth and development of our two neighbours.</li> <li>We are conveying to China and India that a prosperous and stable Nepal is also in their interest.</li> <li>We are telling our development partners that Nepal is a safe country for foreign investment, from where it is easy to export to other countries.</li> <li>We are very sensitive to the fact that 4 million of our young men and women are working abroad and through diplomacy we want to ensure their security, rights and respect.</li> <li>In the 1990s and 2000s many Latin American countries went nearly bankrupt and had to be bailed out. It was not called a ‘debt trap’, none of them had loans from China.</li> <li>If it is in the national interest, we can take not just aid, but also loans. But if it is against our interest, we will not even take assistance.</li> <li>The suspicions about the Indo-Pacific is a storm in a tea cup. Our Chinese friends are not really worried, they are sure that Nepal will not allow anti-Chinese activities.</li> <li>We do not lean more or less on any one side. We don’t try to compare the relationship we have with our two neighbours.</li></ul>"Nepal has spread its wings"Full Interview with Minister of Foreign Affairs Pradeep GyawaliNepali Times: There have been transformative changes in international diplomacy and geopolitics. But Nepal seems to be stuck.Pradeep Gyawali: Every country has a set of long-term goals, and some flexible policies that change with the times. Nation states have permanent values like sovereignty, territorial integrity, dignity and independence. These beliefs do not change with changes in governments, they do not even change with a change in governance systems. Our adherence to the concept of panchashila, or the United Nations declaration does not change. That is why we also look into our fixed goals and immediate policies based on changes in international and regional relations. We have adapted to new realities from the standpoint of our national interest.Will this be enough for Nepal to reach its goal of being a middle-income country in the next ten years?We have to keep in mind global changes, and specifically the geopolitical, economic, demographic changes in Asia. We have to adapt to the fact that our two neighbours are moving forward rapidly. For this, we do not play favourites, or let our relations with one country be at the expense of another. We want to benefit from the economic growth and development of our two neighbours. We are conveying to China and India that a prosperous and stable Nepal is also in their interest. We are telling our development partners that Nepal is a safe country for foreign investment, from where it is easy to export to other countries. We are very sensitive to the fact that 4 million of our young men and women are working abroad and through diplomacy, we want to ensure their security, rights and dignity. And we will extend our involvement and cooperation with multilateral agencies.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131140/636a4ed29c7e80680e04fcd7jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="1161">The Indian media and intelligentsia are accusing Nepal of tilting towards China.Both our neighbours are equally important for us. We are not tilting more or less in any direction. We don’t compare our relationship with either of them.  Neither of our neighbours should forget that Nepal has neighbours on both sides, and ask us to deal only with one of them.There is lot of talk about Nepal falling into the Chinese debt trap.I keep reminding people that in the 1990s and 2000s many Latin American countries nearly went bankrupt and had to be bailed out. It was not called a ‘debt trap’, none of them had loans from China. Greece still has not been able to come out of its economic crisis, and I don’t think they are in trouble because they had Chinese investments. These accusations are not based on an objective economic analysis, but a negative attitude towards the rise of China and its political system. Besides, Nepal has the ability to decide what is in its national interest and what is not.  If it is in the national interest we can take not just aid, but also loans. But if it is not in our interest, we will not even take assistance.And China seems to be suspicious of Nepal’s involvement in the Indo-Pacific Alliance. Can a Nepal that is already a member of the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/chinese-ambassador-addresses-bri-conference/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BRI</a> risk being involved in the Indo-Pacific?The suspicions about the Indo-Pacific is a storm in a tea cup. Our Chinese friends are not really worried, they are sure that Nepal will not allow anti-Chinese activities. The first official visit by a Nepali foreign minister to Washington recently, and the first American visit at the level of the foreign minister to Nepal have added a new milestone to Nepal-US relations. The Japanese foreign minister visited Nepal after many years, we have also deepened our relations with India, the EU and other development partners.  Nepal has increased its involvement in the international arena. The Prime Minister’s recent Europe visit has sent the message that Nepal is no longer what it used to be in South Asia, it has spread its wings. It could be that some cannot digest Nepal’s higher international engagement and are uneasy about it. There is no question of Nepal ever joining any strategic alliance. We look at our own national interest, and we also try to make sure that our decisions and involvement does not hurt the interests of our neighbours, development partners or other friendly countries.What are the main achievements during your tenure?During the conflict, Nepal’s economic development suffered a setback, it affected our foreign policy and we became an arena for proxies. Now, with the end of the political transition and political stability, we are fixing our mistakes and moving ahead.  Nepal used to be a back-bencher in the international fora. Now, we are being seen and heard. The Prime Minister’s participation at Davos, his one-on-one meeting with G-20 leaders sent the message that Nepal should now be heard on the world stage. Recently, the head of the IFC said that Nepal was a ‘rising star’, so that must carry some weight.We have also restored our relations with our neighbours, after overcoming difficult times. Others have now realised that they must take Nepal along. Despite obstacles, we hosted the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/connecting-Bangladesh-China-India-Nepal,2966" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BIMSTEC Summit</a> and the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/labour-pain/">Colombo Process Ministerial Conference</a> in Kathmandu. I would consider the past year quite successful.Interview by Hari Prakash Chand and Binu PokhrelRead Also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-has-more-self-respect/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">“Nepal has more self-respect”</a>, Nepali Times<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/yam-between-3-boulders/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YAM BETWEEN 3 BOULDERS</a>, Editorial<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-now-has-to-balance-not-just-india-and-china-but-also-the-west/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal now has to balance not just India and China, but also the West</a>, Bhairaja Pandey<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/eminently-beneficial-for-india-and-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Eminently beneficial for India and Nepal</a>, Ajit Baral

"Nepal is now seen and heard"

It has been an accepted practice that any Nepali leader makes a symbolic visit south to India after assuming office. But Prime Minister Oli's India visit this week is quite different although it looks like he is just following the tradition.The reason has a lot more to do with New Delhi’s past behaviour towards Nepal. It has now realised its policy was counter-productive and is laying down the red carpet for the leader of a Red coalition.After its failure to get a constitution that suited its interest in 2015, New Delhi imposed a five-month <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/As-It-Happens/blockade-that-benefitted-no-one,660">Blockade</a> on Nepal. Oli became prime minister just as the Blockade started to bite on a country still reeling from the aftermath of the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/kundadixit/2015/05/27/a-month-that-felt-like-a-year/">April 2015 earthquake</a>, and took a strong stand against India. Standing up to India became Oli’s successful electoral platform, and it propelled him back to power in partnership with the Maoists two months ago. In fact, the more New Delhi tried to pressure Oli, the more he bounced back like a rubber ball.In India itself there has been growing criticism from the opposition about Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s failure to stop Chinese inroads in the neighbourhood, including in Nepal. The Indian media analysts have been paranoid about Kathmandu tilting towards the Chinese axis.Prime Minister Modi has spoken to Oli several times after his election, and dispatched Minister of External Affairs<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/aftershocks-of-the-blockade/"> Sushma Swaraj to Kathmandu on a fence-mending mission</a>. New Delhi knows that it will not gain anything by weakening a prime minister who is probably Nepal’s most powerful elected leader in history.But the Oli visit is also an opportunity for Nepal to set relations with India on a more even keel. It is time to reboot bilateral relations and put the past behind us. Prime Minister Oli need not sign any new agreements, he just has to make sure past agreements are implemented, and try to resolve the growing trade imbalance. That itself will be an important gauge of the success of this mission.Shekhar Kharel is a freelance journalist.Read also:' <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/what-is-different-this-time/">What's different this time?</a>', Om Astha Rai<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/national-interest-or-nationalism/">National interest or nationalism</a>,  Editorial<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-has-more-self-respect/">Nepal has more self respect</a>

Red carpet for a red leader

<figure><a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/1"></a></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710110/6368c9589c7e80680e02f2a9jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="920"/><figcaption>#1 (2000)</figcaption><figure><a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/213"></a></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710110/6368c95b9c7e80680e02f2aajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="993"><figcaption> </figcaption><figure><a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/226"></a></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710110/6368c95e9c7e80680e02f2abjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="1002"><figcaption> </figcaption><figure><a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/417"></a></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710110/6368c9609c7e80680e02f2acjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="993"><figcaption> </figcaption><figure><a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/575"></a></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710110/6368c9639c7e80680e02f2adjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="982"><figcaption> </figcaption><figure><a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue_archive/174"></a></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710110/6368c9659c7e80680e02f2aejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="938"><figcaption> </figcaption><figure><a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue_archive/204"></a></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710110/6368c9689c7e80680e02f2afjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="936"><figcaption> </figcaption><figure><a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue_archive/255"></a></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710110/6368c96b9c7e80680e02f2b0jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="946"><figcaption> </figcaption>Prime Minister K P Oli is in New Delhi this weekend, following a tradition laid down by predecessors to first visit India after assuming office. Oli himself had visited New Delhi in 2016, after India lifted the five-month <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/autopsy-of-a-blockade%20,2863">Blockade</a>.So, what is new this time? Not much.Nepal has had 12 leaders, some of them serving more than once, since 2000. India has seen three Prime Ministers in this period, with each hosting multiple Nepali PMs and a king.In every Nepali leader’s India visit, the two countries have dwelt on the same issues: building trust, strengthening bilateral ties and agreeing on large projects that need to materialise.Oli’s visit will not be any different even though he has emerged as the strongest PM in Nepal’s recent history. And he is going to India after his strong nationalistic stance won his party <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2017/12/09/the-rise-of-the-red/">a landslide victory</a> in elections.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710110/6368c96e9c7e80680e02f2b1jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>“Like any Nepali PM’s visit to India in the past, it will be yet another courtesy visit,” concludes political analyst Lok Raj Baral. “It will not change anything fundamentally.”Ahead of his three-day visit, Oli told Parliament on Tuesday that he will push to implement past agreements instead of signing new ones: Pancheshwar, Tarai roads, post-earthquake reconstruction loans.Most of the other political and development issues that Oli may raise  this time have been discussed over and again in every Nepali PM’s India visit in the past, as shown by the Nepali Times coverage (above).The two MPs will remotely lay the foundation of the 900MW Arun III hydroelectricity project in Province 1, but that is not a new project either. In fact, Oli’s own UML party had sabotaged the World Bank-funded Arun III in the early ‘90s. Pancheshwar has been in limbo for over 20 years, and it is slow going on the Tarai roads.Oli is sure to broach his pet subject: inland water transport even though Foreign Affairs Minister Pradeep Gyawali has ruled out any MoU citing lack of preparation. Oli told Parliament that his visit will not bring shame to Nepalis, implying that he will not discuss the contents of the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/new-constitution-has-regressive-flaws-but-can-improve-it-as-we-go-along,2363">Constitution</a>.Even in 2016, Modi had met a resolute Oli who was unwilling to listen to New Delhi on amending the state as demanded by the Madhesi parties. This time he will enjoy greater leverage when he sits down with Modi, who seems to have realised that his policy to isolate Oli has backfired.In an <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-has-more-self-respect/">interview with Nepali Times last week</a>, Foreign Affairs Minister Gyawali said India might announce a special package of support to Nepal as a goodwill gesture. Even if Oli succeeds in rebuilding mutual trust and rebooting relations with India, that will be quite an achievement.Read also:'<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/guest-editorial/red-carpet-for-a-red-leader/">Red carpet for a red leader</a>', Shekhar Kharel<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/national-interest-or-nationalism/">National interest or nationalism</a> , Editorial<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-has-more-self-respect/">Nepal has more self respect</a>

What is different this time?

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.

Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy

American artist Peter Makela was in Nepal in 2022 on a Fulbright scholarship when he experienced the Matya festival in Patan in which devotees made the rounds of the city’s shrines.&nbsp;
He joined the procession, walking through 2,600 stupa and 140 bahal of the town. That immersion left a lasting impression.
As part of Gallery Mcube’s international residency program in Patan, he put his inspiration to canvas in the exhibition Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping. The exhibition also coincides with this month’s Matya festival.&nbsp;
Makela has visited Nepal often in the past 11 years but he mostly stayed in and spent his time around Boudha. “This time I stayed in Patan, put the sites I wanted to visit on my map, and off I went,” he tells us. “Each of my artwork is inspired by the stupas and shrines in Patan that I visited.”
The stupa and Ganesh are recurring motifs in his watercolours, and the elephant gods are located in chaityas — reflecting the interplay and blending of the Hindu and Buddhist faiths in Kathmandu Valley.&nbsp;
The stupas and Ganesh are painted in vivid red, yellow, blue and green against abstract backgrounds meant to represent the sky.
“I use the sky as a backdrop because the sky has no border,” says Makela. “The four colours represent the four elements, the different Buddha families and also lights bouncing off of a rainbow.”
The use of just four colours for all the artwork stands out, and combined with the absence of heavy canvases, frames or stands render Makela’s art striking in its simplicity.&nbsp;
The Ganesh is always holding something and the art also portrays the elephant god’s sacred vehicle, the mouse.
While his vibrant stupas and Ganesh reflect the tangibility of Patan’s tradition and heritage, it is as if the backdrops with their shades of grey and red and yellow capture the soul of the city’s shrines.
“If you look closely, there is a sense of form and formlessness at the same time,” he says.&nbsp;
Makela walked 108 kora around the shrines during his exploration of the town, and in the process developed a spiritual connection with Patan’s heritage and traditions.&nbsp;
The exhibition connects with visitors on a deeper, more spiritual, level as well. And with it, they feel a sense of pride as well as the need to urgently preserve Patan’s heritage for future generations.
“Peter’s inclination and approach towards Nepali art and culture is fascinating, and it reflects in his work,” says Mcube curator Manish Lal Shrestha, whose international artist residency program promotes Nepal’s cultural heritage. &nbsp;&nbsp;
Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping
1-5 August&nbsp;
10AM-7PM
Gallery Mcube, Patan

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