<figure><img width="1750" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111148/63721cf49c7e80680e0bd4bejpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo credit: PAUL JEFFREY</figcaption></figure>Every new crisis heightens the importance of l<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/no-country-for-young-men/">abour migration</a> for Nepal’s economy. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/defying-predictions-nepals-remittances-still-high/">Remittance money</a> has run this country for past centuries, right down to the present day. A succession of rulers have not offered citizens even the bare minimum to survive, so Nepalis have voted with their feet – as workers or warriors overseas. Now, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/female-migrant-workers-hold-up-half-the-sky/">women have also started migrating</a>, and about 10% of Nepali workers abroad are female.Remittance accounts for more than a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/high-risk-remittance/">quarter of Nepal’s GDP</a>, an ever-growing portion of which is from women workers abroad. Many are employed in India and in countries banned by the government, which means they are <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/caring-for-nepals-women/">missing from official records</a>.The history of labour migration from Nepal has its roots in the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-start-of-the-anglo-gorkha-war/">Nepal-British India wars.</a> Even before the formal defeat of the former <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=10937#.Yljce9NBzAM">Gurkhas were being recruited by Sikh king</a> Maharaja Ranjit Singh in Lahore having seen their bravery at the battle of Kangra in 1815. The word <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=10937#.Yljce9NBzAM">Lahure, लाहुरे,</a> denotes soldiers and men working abroad and is derived from the British cantonment in Lahore.  Migration of Nepali men for work and/or settlement is comparatively well documented, but women not so much. Even more neglected is the sacrifice and contribution of the women left behind in Nepal.Read also: <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=10937#.Yljce9NBzAM">'Lahureys’ prop Nepal’s economy</a>, Rajendra DahalIn his new book Lahure Women: Two Centuries of Struggle, Service and Silent Fortitude, Nepal scholar David Seddon looks at the role of the लाहुरे, the daughters, wives, mothers, sisters, aunts, grandmothers of Gurkhas and latter-day migrants in the Gulf, Malaysia and other countries.This is an attempt to bring women to the fore, and shed light on their changing role in Nepali society. The book has a brief history of Gurkhas in wars of the<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/looking-back-at-the-1923-nepal-britain-treaty/"> last 200 years</a>, and the role of Lahure women. Labour migration was also the beginning of women empowerment in Nepal. Women left behind had to take care of families and farms after the men left. The difference today is that the women are also leaving in greater numbers – to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/demand-grows-for-nepali-caregivers-in-israel/">work as caregivers in Israel and as household help</a> in the Gulf countries.This is the driving force behind the increasing purchasing power of Nepali families, the dramatic fall in the poverty rate, and the spurt in grassroots development. Families in villages can now afford more nutritious food, healthcare and ‘boarding’ school education for their children – paid for by remittance money sent home. Many women who initially faced increased burden in absence of men are now <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/women-leaders-set-example-for-rest-of-nepal/">leaders of their communities</a>. They head forestry users groups, are in school management committees, volunteer as community health workers, implement drinking water projects, and are adapting to climate change.   Seddon reminds us that not all women were left behind. Even during the Anglo-Nepal war, women and children followed the Gorkhali garrisons and made up a significant portion of camp followers. Some were companions or concubines. Wives of Gorkhali soldiers even fought and died alongside their husbands in the battles of Kangra and Malaun.  Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/history-of-female-immobility-in-nepal/">History of female (im)mobility in Nepal</a>, Upasana KhadkaDuring the 19th century, Nepalis migrated to India to avoid high taxation, or to escape debt. As tea plantations spread in Darjeeling, entire families moved out of eastern Nepal to be pickers. From there they went on to Bhutan and Burma to work in dairy farms. It was in the late 19th century that Nepalis ventured beyond India, starting with Fiji and the West Indies, where they went as indentured labourers in British sugarcane plantations – many went with families.Seddon traces what must be one of the first documented Nepali woman migrant workers. He writes: ‘In a fascinating discussion of Indian indentured labour, involving predominantly Indian women being shipped to the West Indies and elsewhere, by Gaiutra Bahadur, mention is made of a “Nipalese woman” named Morti.’In the original document, Morti is described as refusing to acknowledge her husband and ‘if the couple had been married, it was perhaps a hastily struck depot or shipboard marriage as they were not from the same part of India, not remotely.’There were 200,000 Gurkhas deployed in the First World War, which accounted for one-fourth of the total male population in Nepal at the time. The Second World War also saw a similar number. Nearly 50,000 Nepali young men were killed in both wars, leaving us to consider what impact this loss might have had on the families in rural Nepal.Others chose not to return and settled with their families in Hong Kong, Singapore, Burma and Malaya where they had served under the British Army. By 1952-54, just over 12% of all Nepalis abroad were women. Seddon tries hard to find information on the roles Gurkhali women played, but it is scanty. The historical neglect by the state of Nepali women is reflected in the lack of documentation of their role, rendering their experience and sacrifices invisible. The book relies on reportage, including some from the Nepali Times. (Wish the author had credited the feature on Nepalis in Thailand, though.) <img width="326" height="279" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111148/63721cf69c7e80680e0bd4bfjpeg.jpg" alt="">Seddon himself acknowledges the gaps and the need for more research. Lahure Women can be seen as the start of a process for further anthropological research into this important socio-economic aspect of Nepal’s migration. Read more: <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/nepali-migrants-too-young-to-die,2811">Killed in the line of duty</a>, Om Astha Rai

Sonia Awale

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The women left behind

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101144/636a257f9c7e80680e0439cfjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1115"/>In her recent article in this paper ‘<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/gurkha-grandparents/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gurkha Grandparents</a>’ (#944) Sikuma Rai movingly describes the plight of many elderly Nepalis now living in the UK, most of them <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-military-migrant-economy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ex-Gurkhas</a> and their wives. The families get regular pension, heating allowances and rent support, free public transport, as well as access to the British National Health Service.But there are also costs, which include living away from their home country in a strange land among strangers, without the personal, social and cultural comforts of their villages. Many pine for Nepal, and <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/No-place-like-home,1123" target="_blank" rel="noopener">some decide to return home</a>. But women, particularly widows who speak little English, have few non-Nepali friends, and remain isolated in their homes in towns like in Salisbury or Aldershot. The weather does not help, and most remain house-bound or within a limited area of the city missing their children and grandchildren.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/gurkha-grandparents/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gurkha Grandparents</a>, Sikuma Rai<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.gwt.org.uk/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Gurkha Welfare Trust</a> runs advice centres which work closely with government bodies like the Royal British Legion to support army veterans. Numerous local charities unconnected with the army also help, as well as community services for older people, including mental health diagnosis, treatment and support, provided by the local council and by the health services.But much of this is cold comfort to elderly Nepali men and women who have settled in Britain, and who would, ideally, flock back to Nepal to be with their families and friends -- if only they could be assured of more financial support, including better and less costly health care.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101144/636a259b9c7e80680e0439d0jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1125"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/need-to-prepare-for-ageing-society,3624" target="_blank" rel="noopener">elderly in Nepal</a> have traditionally been able to count on family support. But, as more older people live longer the financial burden on families has increased. Nepal’s average life span has increased from 35 for men and 37 for women in 1961, to 69 for men and 72 for women in 2014. By 2018, there were nearly 3 million people over 60 in Nepal. Family fragmentation has also resulted in physical separation between older grandparents and their children and grandchildren.Consequently, even back in Nepal, more elderly men and women are <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/guest-editorial/guest-editorial-old-is-gold,876" target="_blank" rel="noopener">living apart from their closest family members</a> than ever before. Many are now suffering from the same problems as do those settled in the UK, but without pensions, allowances, and access to free medical services.Read also: <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/need-to-prepare-for-ageing-society,3624" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A much older tomorrow</a>, Sonia AwaleThere are relatively few specialised institutions for support and care of the elderly in Nepal. The Gurkha Welfare Trust cares for ex-<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/the-gurkhas-an-interactive-timeline" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gurkhas</a> and their families with Welfare Pensions to veterans and widows and medical treatment. But there are very few examples in Nepal of private ‘care homes’ and ‘retirement villages’ that exist in the UK.There is now some state support, but it remains pitifully limited. The non-contributory social pension scheme introduced in 1995 was intended to provide allowances to older people aged 70 and above, to older dalits and people living in the Karnali Zone aged 60 and above, and to poor widows aged 60 and above. The allowance was doubled to, Rs2000 and the age of eligibility reduced to 65, but scheme remains inadequately implemented.It is estimated by Pension Watch (Help Age International) that the number of people receiving an allowance is around 636,000, and 47% over 65 in Nepal receive a non-contributory pension, while 9% have a contributory pension. The total cost of the scheme is Rs15 billion, or 0.7% of GDP. By 2050, when the estimated number of Nepalis over 60 will be around 6.5 million, the cost will have more than doubled even if the same proportion of the budget is allocated to the scheme.Last year, Prime Minister Oli proposed a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/social-insecurity/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">social security scheme</a> for private sector employees to provide for life-long pensions and reduce the fiscal burden by demanding that employers deposit 31% of the basic salary (20% from employers and 11% from employees) into a Social Security Fund. After 15 years, private sector employees would then be entitled to lifelong pensions, just like retired government employees.Read also:<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/social-insecurity/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Social insecurity</a>, Om Astha Rai<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/not-just-social-security/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Not just social security</a>, Josh GloverBut even were this scheme to be introduced, it would still <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/not-just-social-security/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">leave out millions working in the informal sector and agriculture</a>, and would be too late for those already of pensionable age.The Nepal government spends 6% of its budget on basic health care and in 2012, launched a pilot program for universal health insurance in five districts. This was followed up in 2017 by the National <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/national-health-insurance-not-as-easy,4028" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Health Insurance</a> Act and in 2018 by the National Health Institution Quality Authority Act, providing the legal framework for a National Health Service.Although Nepal's 2015 Constitution guarantees basic health care as a fundamental right, however, access to high-quality care remains a privilege, and out of reach of most including elderly Nepalis who may want to come back home.<h2>Fighting for equality</h2>In May 2009, the Labour government under Tony Blair was obliged by public pressure to enable Gurkhaswho retired before 1 July 1997 with at least four years’ service to settle with their families in the UK, that being the date when the Gurkha Brigade headquarters moved from Hong Kong to Britain.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-time-has-come-for-a-gurkha-peace-corps/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Time has come for a Gurkha Peace Corps</a>, David SeddonEven before that, in March 2007, pay, pensions and terms of service of serving Gurkhas were equalised with those of regular British Army personnel and equal pensions were granted to those enlisted from 1 October 1993, but about 15,000 pensioners and 6,000 widow pensioners did not benefit.On 10 June 2011, the British Gurkha Welfare Society lodged a case with the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) claiming that Gurkhas had been paid significantly lower pensions than their British counterparts. On 15 September 2016, the ECHR shattered the hopes of thousands of ex-Gurkhas for equal pensions.

Cold comfort

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal Election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

former-gurkha-soldiers

The women left behind

Cold comfort

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

Nepal Election live results

Bells ring all over Nepal

The magic 138